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Who will win the federal Election This poll is closed. |
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| Labor Majority |
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48 | 42.48% |
| Labor Minority |
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29 | 25.66% |
| Liberal Majority |
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3 | 2.65% |
| Liberal Minority |
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12 | 10.62% |
| UAP Majoirty |
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21 | 18.58% |
| Total: | 113 votes | ||
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NPR Journalizard posted:It might not be likely, but im pretty happy with an ALP/Greens coalition. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-rules-out-fringe-deal-in-rebuff-to-greens-on-climate-20220207-p59uj9.html Labor leader Anthony Albanese has ruled out negotiating with “fringe” parties to form government in a hung parliament after the Greens called for a temporary halt to new coal, gas and oil projects as a condition on any deal after the election. “If we win government we will implement our plan, not negotiate with fringe groups,” Mr Albanese told Labor caucus colleagues on Monday in a rebuff to Greens leader Adam Bandt. “If need be, is what they’re saying, that they will choose to keep Scott Morrison there, I won’t be negotiating or doing deals with the Greens after the election,” Mr Albanese told radio station 2GB. “We have our own policies that we’re taking to the electorate. I am seeking a majority government.” Asked by radio host Ben Fordham to confirm he would not negotiate with the Greens if the minor party held the one seat Labor needed to form government, Mr Albanese said: “Correct”.
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Apr 5, 2022 09:57
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Powerful leadership
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Apr 5, 2022 10:05
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SMILLENNIALSMILLEN posted:https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-rules-out-fringe-deal-in-rebuff-to-greens-on-climate-20220207-p59uj9.html
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Apr 5, 2022 10:07
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And if his options are either negotiate with the greens or let scomo win, Im pretty sure I know which one he will choose.
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Apr 5, 2022 10:25
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the greens & labor are absolutely not going to go into formal coalition in any situation federally any time soon, it would be bad for both of them due to tying the greens to anything unpopular or bad that labor insists on doing while also making labor vulnerable to being seen to be too beholden to the greens (see what happened when they've tried it in tasmania). a confidence & supply agreement for a minority government is possible if the situation demands it, as in 2010, but it's still not a particularly good situation for either of them, mostly due to PR issues & instability & the greens are still going to be very lucky to pick up more than melbourne. the greens wouldn't even have much leverage in the lower house with only one or two seats anyway, labor would likely have the option of relying on wilkie/sharkie/stegall/haines/any other independents instead of the greens, or it would be an unstable mess where they have to rely on the greens + multiple independents - 2010 was not a good situation and it was not good for labor or for the greens. & there is no real reason to expect a minority government is anything other than very unlikely, as always - only real reason to think so is if the polls are pretty close and they're not any labor government is necessarily going to rely on the support of the greens in the senate these days anyway, which gives the greens a significant amount of leverage (more than would be possible in any minority government situation) while still allowing them to maintain their current remove from labor to a large extent which should work much better from a PR perspective for both parties more greens seats is good but labor doing poorly enough to only be able to form minority government is bad (imagine how cowardly they'd be!) - if the greens start winning enough lower house seats to be serious junior coalition parties than the dynamic would be different but that's a long way off. https://antonygreen.com.au/loophole-allows-liberal-democrats-to-retain-party-name/ also the ldp found a loophole that lets them keep the liberal democratic party name for this election lol lih fucked around with this message at 11:26 on Apr 5, 2022 |
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Apr 5, 2022 11:21
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Laserface posted:remember when labor were a shoe in for the 2019 election? lol AgentF posted:Yeah pretty much and all the discussion seems identical to how it was back then. I still have PTSD so I won't be feeling comfortable in advance this time. 2019:  2022: 
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Apr 5, 2022 11:45
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seen this before somewhere
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Apr 5, 2022 11:52
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freebooter posted:2019: ...I should call him
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Apr 5, 2022 11:54
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freebooter posted:2019: The swing back is going to look even more epic this time
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Apr 5, 2022 11:55
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kirbysuperstar posted:...I should call him Everything reminds me of him 
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Apr 5, 2022 11:56
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SMILLENNIALSMILLEN posted:Labor leader Anthony Albanese has ruled out negotiating with “fringe” parties to form government in a hung parliament after the Greens called for a temporary halt to new coal, gas and oil projects as a condition on any deal after the election. Literally every minority government in recent memory (state and federal) said the exact same thing. This means nothing
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Apr 5, 2022 12:34
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Yes you have to admire the concessions that Wilkie got out of PM Gillard in return for confidence. Right up until Labor got Peter Slipper into the big chair.
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Apr 5, 2022 12:38
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The memory of someone coming in here on election eve posting a tweet from some Canberra insider suggesting that Labor's own polling looked grim as gently caress and they were worried, and the entire thread (apart from probably Hambeet) pausing our victory dance to scoff and will stay with me forever. Comparative numbers and context are cool and all... I'll still be keeping the $7 prosecco in the fridge until Mr Green calls it for Albomania this year.
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Apr 5, 2022 13:30
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I've hedged my bets and have both expensive celebration wine and cheap get drunk plonk on standby.
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Apr 5, 2022 13:43
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regardless of outcome i am going to drink myself to death at the greens afterparty
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Apr 5, 2022 13:47
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GoldStandardConure posted:regardless of outcome i am going to drink myself to death at the greens afterparty I will roll you into a nearby gutter. If you wake up in the recovery position, that was accidental.
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Apr 5, 2022 13:48
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regardless on how or why you are drinking yourselves into an early grave this election night please remember to be nice to your local bottle shop attendant because they will have absolutely gotten a lecture about what this means from the absolute worst kinds of people that support the losing party, and probably the winning party as well.
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Apr 5, 2022 13:52
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Albo win = Liquorland budget Prosecco Morrison win = entire bottle of ALDI vodka in 40 minutes, and hopefully death?
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Apr 5, 2022 13:54
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hooman posted:I will roll you into a nearby gutter. If you wake up in the recovery position, that was accidental. i will fill my pockets with space marines as payment for your kind deed
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Apr 5, 2022 13:55
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Don Dongington posted:Albo win = Liquorland budget Prosecco a coworker of mine could hook you up with a nasal gastric feeding tube for the vodka like they do, if you want to die faster
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Apr 5, 2022 13:56
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Apr 5, 2022 13:56
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https://twitter.com/samanthamaiden/status/1511325144387813376?s=21&t=FtCNhK3Jtxl3is-EQAfcVQ
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Apr 5, 2022 13:57
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Sorry to post a dumb question itt but I asked in A/T and didn’t get a good answer (although someone did post the very good democracy koala): What’s the difference between two-party preferred vote and two-candidate preferred vote? The Wikipedia page on it is weirdly opaque but it seems like TPP is what the final vote is if the top two parties are the coalition and Labor, while TCP is what the final vote is if one of the top two vote getters isn’t from one of the big parties. But they still calculate a TPP even if it’s not relevant for that particular seat. Is that right?
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Apr 5, 2022 13:59
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Don Dongington posted:The memory of someone coming in here on election eve posting a tweet from some Canberra insider suggesting that Labor's own polling looked grim as gently caress and they were worried, and the entire thread (apart from probably Hambeet) pausing our victory dance to scoff and will stay with me forever. lol, good times
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Apr 5, 2022 14:04
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Please add this to the OP of every thread from now on.
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Apr 5, 2022 14:06
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GoldStandardConure posted:i will fill my pockets with space marines as payment for your kind deed that reminds me, Squats are back
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Apr 5, 2022 14:09
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Love you, beet. To continue my Official Election Night Mixologist's Recommendations: - Greens - Labour Minority Govt: Soy White Russian - PHON - Liberal Minority Govt: Old Mower Fuel Looks like I'm gonna be in Melbourne on the big night. Look for the guy wearing a mask. Just the mask.
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Apr 5, 2022 14:10
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Prayer room
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Apr 5, 2022 14:15
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Badger of Basra posted:Sorry to post a dumb question itt but I asked in A/T and didn’t get a good answer (although someone did post the very good democracy koala): yeah, that's all correct. TCP is just the same thing as TPP if it's just a traditional Labor vs Liberal/National contest. the TPP calculation for non-traditional top twos is basically just a thing for the stats nerds to look at
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Apr 5, 2022 14:16
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Apr 5, 2022 14:36
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Laserface posted:Can't wait for marrickville to get 300+ new apartments in the next 12 months in an area that already is congested as gently caress with traffic at peak hour. Sounds like perhaps they need to not build much parking and sell/lease the apartments with the explicit knowledge that you will not be provided space to store a car if you live there? Like I know this isn't a super popular option but maybe houses without houses for cars should be an option offered to people these days? GoldStandardConure posted:regardless of outcome i am going to drink myself to death at the greens afterparty The refreshing thing about the Greens election afterparty is that we know we aren't going to win big time the way the two majors do, so we just cut loose and celebrate how hard we worked that day and all the ones before. One of my favourite memories is dancing to Taytay with a bunch of vollies and I think the state director (something like that) of the Greens at the time at the last federal election after party. 
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Apr 5, 2022 14:55
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I am glad I left the last Fed after party when I did, as I had a half dozen people trying to buy me drinks so if I stayed any longer I probably would have died (I was hung over enough the following day as it was). After party for the state I went home early and collapsed from exhaustion and then spent the rest of the weekend vomiting as my body just collapsed on itself. Good times.
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Apr 5, 2022 15:07
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I didn't make the last one, because I was out in the sun all day as a booth captain and just passed out as soon as I got home. EDIT: Fill your pockets with scrunts GSC and I promise I will attend.
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Apr 5, 2022 16:07
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GoldStandardConure posted:I am glad I left the last Fed after party when I did, as I had a half dozen people trying to buy me drinks so if I stayed any longer I probably would have died (I was hung over enough the following day as it was).  thank you for your service to the nation
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Apr 6, 2022 00:08
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the sovereign nation of perth
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Apr 6, 2022 00:08
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Hey I had an idea about the Greens branding…
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Apr 6, 2022 00:19
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After the NSW court of appeal on Tuesday confirmed Morrison’s preferred candidates were valid, clearing the way for the federal election to be called, Morrison told the ABC he intervened in the process because “I’m asked all the time why won’t the prime minister do more about getting good women in parliament and stand up for the women in parliament”. “I stood up for the women in my team,” the prime minister told the 7.30 program.
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Apr 6, 2022 00:23
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froglet posted:Sounds like perhaps they need to not build much parking and sell/lease the apartments with the explicit knowledge that you will not be provided space to store a car if you live there? this is perhaps even more wishful thinking than a labor win.
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Apr 6, 2022 00:28
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Fairfax publishing TERF shite again defending Leppert: https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/trans-rights-should-not-automatically-trump-the-rights-of-other-groups-20220405-p5aaus.html
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Apr 6, 2022 01:06
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lmao
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Apr 6, 2022 01:12
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