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Who will win the federal Election This poll is closed. |
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| Labor Majority |
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48 | 42.48% |
| Labor Minority |
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29 | 25.66% |
| Liberal Majority |
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3 | 2.65% |
| Liberal Minority |
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12 | 10.62% |
| UAP Majoirty |
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21 | 18.58% |
| Total: | 113 votes | ||
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hambeet posted:Hey I had an idea about the Greens branding… gently caress off beet!!!
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Apr 6, 2022 02:02
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hambeet posted:Hey I had an idea about the Greens branding…
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Apr 6, 2022 02:13
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SMILLENNIALSMILLEN posted:After the NSW court of appeal on Tuesday confirmed Morrison’s preferred candidates were valid, clearing the way for the federal election to be called, Morrison told the ABC he intervened in the process because “I’m asked all the time why won’t the prime minister do more about getting good women in parliament and stand up for the women in parliament”. Concetta Ferraventi-Wells isn't too impressed with this line. You just have to read "my team" as not meaning the Libs, but his direct supporters only.
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Apr 6, 2022 02:27
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freebooter posted:Fairfax publishing TERF shite again defending Leppert: fairfax is very committed to its usual centrist bullshit of both-sidesing even something like this. szego is a repeat offender there (& she clearly has editorial support), she's repeatedly published disingenuous transphobic pieces like this. leppert is still publicly doubling down on his transphobia and it sounds like the main reason the party hasn't taken any action yet is that vic greens are a bit of a mess internally at the moment (position of convenor is currently vacant, apparently they're in the process of moving to a new party constitution or something, existing vic greens complaints procedures are extremely slow to begin with). no doubt when action is finally taken against him he'll be writing in the australian about how the greens cancelled him etc. https://twitter.com/shanebazzi/status/1510603907554492418 albanese also keeps doubling down on his transphobic dog whistles to prove he's "not woke" or some dumbass poo poo like that. like i don't believe albanese is an ideologically committed transphobe (he'd be saying much worse things if he was) but it's very clear he thinks it's politically convenient to throw us under the bus which is depressing as poo poo & so i really have no expectation now that labor will do anything except maintain the status quo re: trans rights federally. it's not even a central culture war issue here, things are nowhere near as bad as the us or uk (yet) so if albanese is too much of a coward now to be at all supportive it's very bleak. it's not even politically expedient either, there's only a handful of western sydney marginals (all held by labor) where there's any possibility of a deliberate transphobic campaign damaging them & if said hypothetical transphobic scare campaign is a decisive enough factor to lose labor those seats & the election then they really weren't going to win anyway. it's not hard to just refuse to play the stupid gotcha games and paint anyone who tries them as concerned with frivolous nonsense and state labor's existing commitment to supporting trans people if pressed
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Apr 6, 2022 03:02
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Have to respect this level of loophole shenanigans: https://antonygreen.com.au/loophole-allows-liberal-democrats-to-retain-party-name/
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Apr 6, 2022 03:07
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ALP majority in both houses with Campbell Newman in the senate giving us the LDP insanity we crave.
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Apr 6, 2022 03:26
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if there's a guaranteed anti-covid restriction minor party right-wing senator from qld coming it seems pretty clear that newman would be the least harmful & even palmer getting the seat would be preferable to hanson again. but she's by far the most likely to win the seat.
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Apr 6, 2022 03:38
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What's the likely makeup of the Senate post-election? Was just checking today and I didn't realise that the combined ALP and Greens senators perfectly match the LNP's (35 apiece) and the crossbench probably leans to the right on a lot of issues (two One Nation and one ex-CLP right-winger matched by Lambie and two ex-Xenophon centrists).lih posted:albanese also keeps doubling down on his transphobic dog whistles to prove he's "not woke" or some dumbass poo poo like that. like i don't believe albanese is an ideologically committed transphobe (he'd be saying much worse things if he was) but it's very clear he thinks it's politically convenient to throw us under the bus which is depressing as poo poo & so i really have no expectation now that labor will do anything except maintain the status quo re: trans rights federally. I agree. And I know it's a hoary old TERF talking point but the thing in Czego's piece that pissed me off most was the assertion that non-medically transitioned trans women (wink wink, not REAL women) are impinging on women's rights by wanting to use women's shelters, change rooms, toilets etc, with the unspoken implication being that they're doing so as an elaborate long con to sexually harass and assault women. Making that implication is morally on par with the prevalent belief back in the 70s and 80s that gay men were all pedophiles.
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Apr 6, 2022 03:42
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It’s over. It will be a defeat of historic proportions. Ordinary Australians have had enough. Yes, thanks for getting us through the pandemic (lol) - but that was your job. But we are looking ahead and we don’t want any more of this Prime Minister, rightly or wrongly. It’s time. To move on, to get a more trustworthy PM, to get a more cohesive government and the list goes on. Rupert has sniffed the mood. He will give Labor a fair hearing. It will be a million miles from coverage with Shorten as leader. Morrison is on the defensive every day. And that won’t go away. In fact, it will intensify as the NSW division continue with their stabbing. And Turnbull won’t be far away, every day. At least 80 seats. Bank on it. I know from long experience that once the campaign starts the way this one has for Morrison, it will ramp up. Make that 85 seats. ACTUALLY make it 90 seats.
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Apr 6, 2022 03:43
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Anidav posted:It’s over. It will be a defeat of historic proportions. Ordinary Australians have had enough. Yes, thanks for getting us through the pandemic (lol) - but that was your job. But we are looking ahead and we don’t want any more of this Prime Minister, rightly or wrongly. Where's this quoted from?
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Apr 6, 2022 04:03
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I didn't know you posted on Whirlpool, Dave
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Apr 6, 2022 04:05
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Senor Tron posted:Where's this quoted from? its from here
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Apr 6, 2022 04:10
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quote:What’s striking is that Leppert is accused of transphobia for fearing that affirmative care might be suppressing a young person’s lesbian identity. Surely we could flip this around to accuse his critics of homophobia in seeking to silence his fears. To me, it speaks to both a fear of their own position being so at risk by reaction that they would sell out anyone who's currently on the out to keep themselves in - and, more crucially, a lack of imagination, an inability to imagine that the possibilities of social progression and change for the better are greater than they think. Trans rights aren't as threatened as they are elsewhere, particularly in the US and UK, but I think attitudes like this will only serve to diminish rights for all in the long run, in the name of protecting what rights already exist. Do they think reaction will respect their rights after trans rights are sufficiently suppressed? Do they really think they'll be allowed to draw the line on what's acceptable on their own terms? It's suicide, and they're intent on misinterpreting it. * There's two reasons TERFs would suggest trans women should not be allowed in women's spaces: either because they cannot be trusted (the argument made for shelters, women's only baths, etc.; an absurd and obviously transphobic, vile statement) or because they have an unfair advantage (the argument made for women's sports; forgetting that IIRC the transition itself, especially HRT, does affect trans women to the point where, at the end of it, they're effectively on physical par with or even slightly weaker than cis women). The latter is less obviously transphobic, and where people who are clueless about this sort of thing might agree in a knee-jerk reaction. Correlating the two is just laundering the explicitly absurd and hateful reasons with the 'just raising concerns about fairness' one. It's a frustrating rhetorical trick that TERFs keep using.
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Apr 6, 2022 04:25
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SMILLENNIALSMILLEN posted:its from here That thread's full of sickos.
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Apr 6, 2022 04:31
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Genuine question from someone who doesnt know much about it - what is the percentage of the australian population that identifies as trans?
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Apr 6, 2022 05:38
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Very quick check, but ABS estimates 13% https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs...16%20Census~100 EDIT- re read it, and I hosed up- 13% of.... whoever said they were non-cis. The way its written confuses me and doesn't give a clear percentage Paingod556 fucked around with this message at 05:46 on Apr 6, 2022 |
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Apr 6, 2022 05:43
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2016 census said there were 340 trans people. 2021 census data is out in a couple of months. So lol, but also the ABS is fully aware that that's a completely unreliable number for a bunch of obvious reasons.
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Apr 6, 2022 05:48
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Laserface posted:Genuine question from someone who doesnt know much about it - what is the percentage of the australian population that identifies as trans?  DSM - 5 - TR so maybe half a percent
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Apr 6, 2022 05:54
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Mola Yam posted:2016 census said there were 340 trans people. 2021 census data is out in a couple of months. the best ballpark figure that exists is just that it's somewhere around 0.5% of the population
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Apr 6, 2022 06:04
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global stats range from about .5% to 2% with a big fuzzy margin, but those larger numbers tend to be because intersex and nonbinary people get lumped into the category in quite a lot of places
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Apr 6, 2022 06:31
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Senor Tron posted:Where's this quoted from? Anidav's fever dreams Mola Yam posted:2016 census said there were 340 trans people. 2021 census data is out in a couple of months. Wow. I have met a significant number of Australia's trans community, who apparently mostly reside in Perth. Weird.
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Apr 6, 2022 06:33
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PvO drives a dagger in Waleed drives a dagger in Towke drives a dagger in The drips will feast! There are dozens of us, dozens!
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Apr 6, 2022 06:36
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Anidav posted:PvO drives a dagger in yes, yesss
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Apr 6, 2022 06:40
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Not trying to stir poo poo up or piss anyone off, i really dont know much about this kind of thing and I dont know a good way to get these kind of answers besides asking people that know more about it than I do. so on the surface, to me, 'men cant have babies' is a true statement - they can father children with a woman who carries the baby but they cant have them, in the baby-inside-them sense. when it comes to trans people having babies, i am assuming that someone that has transitioned from male to female to the point of being able to carry a baby to term (if thats even a thing? i have no idea) would in fact identify as and be a woman? or, is the 'men cant have babies' thing more about women who identify as males, and have not undergone transition and still have all the plumbing for birthing a child? (typing both out, this seems like the more likely scenario) just to make it clear I am not arguing against trans rights or anything, I just dont understand why this statement is such a big deal (not because it isnt a big deal, just because im not sure what the actual context behind it is) 'men cant have babies' is vague enough that any boomer brain that sees it is immediately going to culture-war it as 'trans rights' poo poo will go 'bloody oath, good on you albo' and scroll on, which I imagine is the point of it. Maybe im giving them too much credit?
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Apr 6, 2022 07:20
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It is about trans men who have not had bottom surgery, and it's entirely stupid culture war poo poo, yeah. E: I think a lot of the issue is that it's a fairly new and poorly established one that still mostly registers as a non-sequitor to the average person. It doesn't lose you very much to just respond with 'what the gently caress are you talking about? anyway here's my aged care plan'.
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Apr 6, 2022 07:29
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With trans stuff, a lot of cis people hyperfocus on the pink bits as the gold standard of what gender a person is. And so if someone says they're trans, that cis person might assume they've had the relevant surgery. But anecdotally, and for a lot of reasons, many trans people will go a long time, or their whole lives, without going through top or (especially) bottom surgery. Hence men who can have babies, and women who can shoot voluminous loads out of their dicks. Due to trans invisibility/erasure until *very* recently, this can softlock the brains of cis people who had already decided they knew what "being trans" means. Mola Yam fucked around with this message at 07:52 on Apr 6, 2022 |
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Apr 6, 2022 07:46
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Laserface posted:Not trying to stir poo poo up or piss anyone off, i really dont know much about this kind of thing and I dont know a good way to get these kind of answers besides asking people that know more about it than I do. it's a culture war shibboleth - basically they want the respondent to say 'no' because a woman who can't have babies isn't really a woman and thus trans women are really men. the statement is nonsensical because, as you identify and among other reasons, trans men exist and may still have all the relevant organs to conceive and carry a child to term.
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Apr 6, 2022 07:47
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Do you think Albanese calls them potato scallops or potato cakes?
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Apr 6, 2022 08:01
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Roy Morgan Goatse is out
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Apr 6, 2022 08:18
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GoldStandardConure posted:gently caress off beet!!! No, that’s not it.
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Apr 6, 2022 08:30
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https://twitter.com/theprojecttv/status/1511535665158230019
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Apr 6, 2022 09:28
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iONCCLXAOW4
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Apr 6, 2022 09:39
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looks like Morrison has lost the Kuntz vote
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Apr 6, 2022 09:46
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Laserface posted:Not trying to stir poo poo up or piss anyone off, i really dont know much about this kind of thing and I dont know a good way to get these kind of answers besides asking people that know more about it than I do. it's culture war gotcha poo poo about denying the existence of trans men (who were assigned female at birth and thus can be capable of giving birth even if they've medically transitioned) and is being brought up with that as the subtext - albanese is rejecting it as "woke" nonsense and doubling down on it in repeated interviews. if it was once then you can maybe try to make excuses but he's repeatedly tried to position himself as "anti-woke" recently with poo poo like this. it's all very stupid and depressing, he's very transparently not a committed social conservative who is genuinely concerned about "wokeness", he's just cynically decided it's an expedient posture to take. and for what? shorten did not lose in 2019 and 2016 because he was "too woke". it seems to be just pre-emptively trying to defuse the possibility of some sort of scare campaign about albanese being a member of the woke loony left, but if something like that was enough to kill labor's election chances, they weren't going to win anyway. the ideal position would be to just reject that whole framing entirely instead of directly taking the conservative position.
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Apr 6, 2022 09:48
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Whilst on the surface all looks well for a LNP defeat at the federal election. My pessimistic doompost thinking is: They will find something bullshitty and right wing that will resonate with the bunch of cunts that is the Australian populace, and then hammer that home using repetition, and the fact that Albo and Labor are pissweak and useless to do anything against it, to ride their way into an unlikely victory. Which will see ScoMo become smugger than ever, hated by those within and outside his own party but untouchable because he won the unwinnable election. This thing will be somethng horrible. Like it was "reffos out!" which won Howard several elections, or the way that the anti-Adani folk were painted as tree hugging pinkos in Qld which Right now they are trying to push the bullshit TERFy culture war stuff to rile up Australia's innate conservatism and hatred of difference. But I don't see that sticking. However there are a million other hateful right wing talking points, (Aborigines are all dole bludging petrol sniffers who don't want to work, Unions are actually all organized criminals taking your money and hurting big business thus costing jobs, women are dressing far too slutty these days, thats why they are being raped and also are too hysterical/emotional/weak/delicate to be considered for parliament to name but a few), that the Morrisson government is not above trotting out in hopes of winning support. I have no faith in the Australian people not embracing the stupidest and most hateful possible position. Especially if Rupert tells them to. My only hope is ScoMo himself being an incompetent moron, and constantly shooting himself in the foot when he doesn't have to. (As a related aside, something I truly hope for is that during the campaign, ScoMo inadvertently drops the "daggy dad" mask and shows the angry autocratic egomaniac fundie side of himself during some stage managed puff piece PR shoot, for the entire country to see. That'd be cool.)
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Apr 6, 2022 09:50
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Laserface posted:Not trying to stir poo poo up or piss anyone off, i really dont know much about this kind of thing and I dont know a good way to get these kind of answers besides asking people that know more about it than I do. Just be careful with wording like "women who identify as males" because when it's put like that it's indicating that the person *is* a woman who is choosing to identify as a man (loaded language that I had to unlearn). Better to just use the term trans women (for trans people who identify as women) and trans men (for trans people who identify as men). So people who are trans (or non binary) are asking for healthcare and wording rather than being targetted at "women" is instead targetted towards "people with a uterus" as that is a more accurate description, and "people who can get pregnant", because you can be a woman (including cis women) and that not apply to you. It's just trying to make language more accurate and not be exclusionary. It's a loving dumb gotcha question and Albanese should just tell them to gently caress off with culture war bullshit. Where's your tory fighting now you weaksauce oval office.
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Apr 6, 2022 09:54
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These names are like something off the Micalef show
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Apr 6, 2022 09:55
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someone asked about the senate prospects earlier so here's an effort post Seats up for election (not including territories because they're very unlikely to change from the status quo): NSW: 3 LNP, 3 LAB VIC: 3 LNP, 2 LAB, 1 GRN QLD: 3 LNP, 2 LAB, 1 ONP WA: 3 LNP, 2 LAB, 1 GRN SA: 2 LNP, 2 LAB, 2 CA (including Rex Patrick who quit CA to become an independent, and the party was NXT still in 2016) TAS: 3 LNP, 2 LAB, 1 GRN total: 17 LNP, 13 LAB, 3 GRN, 1 ONP, 2 CA the 'default' result in each state these days is 3 LNP, 2 LAB, 1 GRN and it takes a pretty big left v right skew in either direction to change this, or a strong independent candidate. this isn't quite reflected in these seats up for grabs due to the 2016 double dissolution though. likely net changes assuming Labor victory: NSW: -1 LAB, +1 GRN Doesn't seem like anything unusual can happen here VIC: 0 to +1 LAB, -1 to 0 LNP If Labor does well enough here (which is very possible if they win the election) they could get 3 senate seats here making for a 4-2 left/right split QLD: 0 to +1 GRN, -1 to 0 LNP If Labor doesn't do as terribly as last time in QLD a return to a 3-3 left/right split is likely. Less likely is ONP being replaced by UAP or LDP, or the three of them heavily vote-splitting with poor preference flows & they all miss out in favour of the LNP WA: No change likely, there's no indication that the big swing to Labor expected here will be enough to get a 4-2 left/right split SA: 0 to +1 LNP, 0 to +1 GRN, 0 to +1 LAB, 0 to +1 (Xenophon), -2 CA This is the most unclear, it depends how Xenophon's run as an independent goes (I think he has very a good chance but it's far from guaranteed). If Xenophon wins a seat, it'll likely be in place of LNP or Greens - the former seems more likely as long as Labor does pretty well in SA & Xenophon doesn't eat into the Greens vote too much. If Xenophon does poorly and misses out on a seat, it's possible that Labor can do well enough to get to 3 seats, making for a 4-2 left/right split, but Xenophon running has made that possibility of 3 LAB 1 GRN much less likely. There's no chance of Rex Patrick winning his seat and Stirling Griff is running on Xenophon's ticket which is not at all likely to get enough for 2 seats this time. TAS: -1 to 0 LNP, 0 to +1 JLN, 0 to +1 LAB Depends on if Lambie's personal vote can get her a second senator elected for her party without her name on the ballot, which is a real unknown. If she does, they'll very likely take a seat that would have gone to the LNP. If not, it's possible Labor does well enough for 3 seats but it's not the most likely state for that so likely possible net changes per party: -3 to +1 LNP -1 to +2 LAB +1 to +3 GRN 0 to +1 JLN 0 to +1 Xenophon -2 CA likely possible seat totals: 33 to 37 LNP 25 to 28 LAB 10 to 12 GRN 2 ONP 1 to 2 JLN 0 to 1 Xenophon For a workable crossbench, Labor needs Labor, Greens, Lambie & Xenophon to make up at least 39 seats. If Labor + Greens get 4 seats in at least 2 states & 3 in every other state, they have a majority together and the Greens have the sole balance of power. This is probably not too likely with Xenophon & Lambie's candidate both more likely prospects to win seats over the Liberals. If Labor + Greens get 4 seats in a single state (Victoria is most likely) & 3 in every other state, or if Labor + Greens get 3 in every state and Lambie's second senator wins in Tasmania, then Labor + Lambie + Greens is a majority. If Labor + Greens get 3 seats in every state + Xenophon wins in SA then Labor + Greens + Lambie + Xenophon is a majority. If Labor + Greens get 3 seats in every state except QLD where they only get 2, and Xenophon & Lambie's candidate both win, then Labor + Greens + Lambie + Xenophon is a majority. Anything worse than that is near totally unworkable for Labor (One Nation + LNP majority) and a double dissolution will surely happen in response. Also other possible workable scenarios for Labor like still doing bad in QLD but making up for it elsewhere (you do the maths), possibility of needing only one of Xenophon or Lambie in addition to Greens etc.
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Apr 6, 2022 10:09
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https://twitter.com/theprojecttv/status/1511632257148141569
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Apr 6, 2022 10:12
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Mola Yam posted:With trans stuff, a lot of cis people hyperfocus on the pink bits as the gold standard of what gender a person is. And so if someone says they're trans, that cis person might assume they've had the relevant surgery. All of this crap goes away if you just hit back with 'cis men can't carry babies'. Then you just stare at them.
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Apr 6, 2022 10:18
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