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Marshal Prolapse posted:Yep, Taiwan operates them, but I’m not sure if the US has those or it’s a purely local adaptation. They're being supplied by the US. The Dutch also have them, so there are already some systems on Continent.
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Apr 9, 2022 17:26
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Stultus Maximus posted:How long would you suppose it would take to get Patriot batteries in the field? This is not a realistic ask, for a combination of security, manufacturing, political, and technical reasons.
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Apr 9, 2022 17:26
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mlmp08 posted:This is not a realistic ask, for a combination of security, manufacturing, political, and technical reasons. We give it to KSA, how is Ukraine somehow more unrealistic?
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Apr 9, 2022 17:27
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Stultus Maximus posted:How long would you suppose it would take to get Patriot batteries in the field? 6 months if you want them to be used effectively and not break immediately. I am not joking. Maybe 3 months if you convert experienced s-300 crews and had EXCELLENT bilingual instructors.
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Apr 9, 2022 17:28
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mlmp08 posted:This is not a realistic ask, for a combination of security, manufacturing, political, and technical reasons. I know literally nothing about Patriot batteries technically or operationally, but if we can give them to Saudi Arabia, what are the security and political issues with Ukraine?
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Apr 9, 2022 17:28
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A.o.D. posted:6 months if you want them to be used effectively and not break immediately. I am not joking. Man imagine Russia in six months waking up to US made Fighters and Patriot air defenses. 
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Apr 9, 2022 17:29
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mlmp08 posted:This is not a realistic ask, for a combination of security, manufacturing, political, and technical reasons. The Ukrainians have given us access to Russian EWAR, PENAIDS, and other assets of at least equal value to PATRIOT. We owe it to them to get them the training and systems.
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Apr 9, 2022 17:32
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Marshal Prolapse posted:We give it to KSA, how is Ukraine somehow more unrealistic? We do not “give” it to KSA. We established a sales program spanning years of manufacture, training, fielding, logistical support, which to this day is supported by a US Military Training Mission consisting of US Army air defense technicians, trainers, staff officers, logisticians, and contractors, US Air Force advisors, operating within the borders of the Kingdom, and there is an established defense treaty with KSA and has been for years. It is supported by a mix of bilateral and multilateral agreements, operations agreements, and regular air warfare center and centcom partner network exercises and training evaluations. If manufacturing was done by a Star Trek level nano-fabricator, money was no object, political considerations stopped existing, and literally the only thing you gave one aingle poo poo about was operating the sustem and trucks (so no first aid, no basic soldiering, no integration with any other sensor or country, just basic, bare-bones BN internal ops with maybe a phone line to the Ukrainian air force), maybe you could train up a unit in 90-120 days to be “kinda ok.” This assumes they are bot harassed by attacks and that US contractor support is present for maintenance. Units whose entire reason for existence, with purpose built MOS for Patriot, take about 6 months to reach BN-level intermediate-level certification, which is the bare bones requirement to deploy. Part of why it takes 6 months is weekends, small arms ranges, physical fitness time, and training to do things like load it on trucks, rail, and airplanes, but still. E: apologies for typos, phone postin’ mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Apr 9, 2022 |
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Apr 9, 2022 17:36
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https://twitter.com/MacWBishop/status/1512795949218734082?t=U3sDDhl6feSnpKe8CJ3P6g&s=19 https://twitter.com/MacWBishop/status/1512802664219701256?t=BTrlfblAOiw3PJTsofvqJg&s=19 I cannot imagine how hosed up it is to be pressing METOC Os into vehicles
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Apr 9, 2022 17:38
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mlmp08 posted:We do not “give” it to KSA. We established a sales program spanning years of manufacture, training, fielding, logistical support, which to this day is supported by a US Military Training Mission consisting of US Army air defense technicians, trainers, staff officers, logisticians, and contractors, US Air Force advisors, operating within the borders of the Kingdom, and there is an established defense treaty with KSA and has been for years. It is supported by a mix of bilateral and multilateral agreements, operations agreements, and regular air warfare center and centcom partner network exercises and training evaluations. I think that could be brought down to 3-4 months, but you'd have to take a skilled s-300 crew out of combat for the entire time period, and you'd need excellent bilingual instructors. Otherwise, I agree completely
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Apr 9, 2022 17:39
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A.o.D. posted:The Ukrainians have given us access to Russian EWAR, PENAIDS, and other assets of at least equal value to PATRIOT. We owe it to them to get them the training and systems. Agreed. But you do realize that these crews cannot be trained in situ, right? To train Ukrainian crews on the Patriot you'd have to take active personnel who are doing valuable and needed work in the theater off the line and keep them off said line for 3-6+ months. This is "armchair generalling" at its worst. I get "we need to give them everything they need," but this would actually *hurt* Ukraine's warfighting capability. Every S-300 crew transitioning to Patriot is an S-300 crew not downing Russian warplanes. Every T-64 crew learning to operate an M1A2 is a T-64 crew not popping turrets off of T-80s.
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Apr 9, 2022 17:40
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https://twitter.com/macwbishop/status/1512803920623509512?s=21&t=OUJP1XD0jcMwVAdYvU2Vag they brought tracksuits with them because they were told to bring a tuxedo
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Apr 9, 2022 17:42
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BIG HEADLINE posted:Agreed. But you do realize that these crews cannot be trained in situ, right? To train Ukrainian crews on the Patriot you'd have to take active personnel who are doing valuable and needed work in the theater off the line and keep them off said line for 3-6+ months. I have been implying exactly that. It's 6 months of training, not 6 months of correspondence courses. The past page or so I've been stating exactly that we can't just give them those systems. It won't do any good. HOwever, I do believe that this war does have a long term, and that we can best help the Ukrainians by gearing them up for that long term struggle. Please read the entire post before lighting your straw man on fire.
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Apr 9, 2022 17:43
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I would assume Ukraine has lost enough S-300 systems that there could be S-300 crews available.
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Apr 9, 2022 17:46
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Not to be an rear end in a top hat, but I’d wager knowing how to use an S-300 cuts like… maybe one week of training out of a months-long program to operate patriot. And that training is largely just “here’s how an airplane flies and here’s how a helicopter flies, and TBMs go fast and high.” Same likely applies going from Patriot to S300 or S-400.
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Apr 9, 2022 17:49
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Transferring weapons and parts from former Warsaw Pact countries who were already transitioning to NATO stuff is probably the best intermediate step, and is indeed already underway. Weaning Ukraine completely off of Soviet stuff will take years, though (assuming they even want to - the T-64s they've been using are largely fully overhauled and updated, and appear to be going toe to toe with the Russians handily).
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Apr 9, 2022 17:52
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psydude posted:Transferring weapons and parts from former Warsaw Pact countries who were already transitioning to NATO stuff is probably the best intermediate step, and is indeed already underway. I think that’s actually been discussed as a long term goal. I think a good short term goal is giving them whatever they need to sink the Russian black fleet is key as it could secure Odessa and *possibly* allow for resupply of Mariupol. I mean both in practical terms and morale terms for both sides, nailing naval targets would be huge.
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Apr 9, 2022 17:55
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The UK already said they were sending ASMs. No idea on which ones and when they'll arrive, though. But I agree sinking a Russian ship or two to keep them away from the coasts would be helpful especially if/when they retake Kherson and move to cut off the land bridge from Crimea.
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Apr 9, 2022 17:57
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psydude posted:The UK already said they were sending ASMs. No idea on which ones and when they'll arrive, though. But I agree sinking a Russian ship or two to keep them away from the coasts would be helpful especially if/when they retake Kherson and move to cut off the land bridge from Crimea. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512837866258419713
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Apr 9, 2022 18:01
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psydude posted:The UK already said they were sending ASMs. No idea on which ones and when they'll arrive, though. But I agree sinking a Russian ship or two to keep them away from the coasts would be helpful especially if/when they retake Kherson and move to cut off the land bridge from Crimea.  Yeah, and honestly the shame of losing your navy to a country with no effective navy is huge. Granted that’s a added bonus. However, their is an additional knock on effect of huge potential casualties on the Russian side. I can’t imagine they are efficiently run or crewed (ie like an old Iowa or the always one fire AC they run), granted they could always been severely understaffed. That said they could also be filled with vehicles too. Kind of like a loot box. lol Edit: Thanks for the info AoD on the sea spear!
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Apr 9, 2022 18:02
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Marshal Prolapse posted:I think that’s actually been discussed as a long term goal. Not to mention the economic impact of securing Odessa.
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Apr 9, 2022 18:03
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Marshal Prolapse posted:
Just the threat of being able to attack the Russian Navy ought to be enough to force Russia to retire those assets. With the Bosphorous closed, they can't reinforce or replace those hulls, and I suspect that their ability to repair damaged ships in situ is very limited.
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Apr 9, 2022 18:05
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Stultus Maximus posted:Not to mention the economic impact of securing Odessa. A very good point as well. I know it’s kind of temping to think the naval front is solely for Russia, but I think (considering it’s the Black Sea and not the Black Ocean) you can launch asymmetric warfare against an enemy navy, even if you kind of lack one currently. A.o.D. posted:Just the threat of being able to attack the Russian Navy ought to be enough to force Russia to retire those assets. With the Bosphorous closed, they can't reinforce or replace those hulls, and I suspect that their ability to repair damaged ships in situ is very limited. Yeah. Turkey would probably be laughing their asses off the whole time. Also possibly wreck some naval poo poo on Crimea to screw with Russia like the Oil Depot attack. Make they have to commit more resources there. Marshal Prolapse fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Apr 9, 2022 |
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Apr 9, 2022 18:05
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The real talk about “defensive weapons” is that the term means whatever people want it to mean. And generally that seems to be some variation of “not well-armed”. Tanks and fighter jets are used just as defensively as Javelins and Stingers. Finland defends itself from Russia with the largest artillery force in Europe. South Korea defends itself from North Korea with one million land mines. The most well-known defensive weapons are ballistic submarines, but I don’t think for a moment that any of the Neville Chamberlains would be comfortable with Ukraine getting command of those. I think the term is largely performative, and has mainly been employed by Scholz and the like-minded to help justify their lack of support for Ukraine. This isn’t an argument in favor of supplying any particular weapon system, so much as pointing out that the “defensive arms only” concept is hollowly rhetorical. Kaal fucked around with this message at 18:16 on Apr 9, 2022 |
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Apr 9, 2022 18:08
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I’ll take 20 pallets of them! Also it’s full name is The Brimstone. https://youtu.be/F1cS8zhweq4
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Apr 9, 2022 18:13
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stealie72 posted:Ukraine is going to capture Moscow fuelled by pure rage and armed by the west. I don't know about Moscow, but I'm beginning to think Sevastopol might be on the table.
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Apr 9, 2022 18:22
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https://twitter.com/MacWBishop/status/1512797114253803524 The BTR lays on its back, its belly baking in the hot sun, its wheels are turning trying to turn itself over, but it can't. Not without your help. But you're not helping.
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Apr 9, 2022 18:23
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Madurai posted:I don't know about Moscow, but I'm beginning to think Sevastopol might be on the table. I think a side of Russian Pacific Fleet 2.0 as a bisque might be too. https://youtu.be/F1cS8zhweq4 I love this thing, because it seems like you could launch it off a yacht. Hmmm…yes rig some of those impounded yachts with them or better yet pack them with explosives and set it to be a giant speeding boat version of VBIED make it a SBIED.
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Apr 9, 2022 18:26
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Stultus Maximus posted:I know literally nothing about Patriot batteries technically or operationally, but if we can give them to Saudi Arabia, what are the security and political issues with Ukraine? Moscow would see pushing the US ballistic missile shield into Ukraine as a step forward in terms of nuclear escalation. There is still a sword of Damocles hanging over this conflict that needs to be considered.
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Apr 9, 2022 18:33
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Brimstone/Sea Spear appears to be an excellent little missile, but it’s Hellfire-class, not an actual anti-ship missile. As an example, a Harpoon’s warhead alone is heavier than four complete Brimstone missiles. Great for small craft and armored vehicles, but not particularly useful against large amphibs or warships. (This isn’t a knock on the missile, just stressing that this doesn’t give Ukraine any kind of serious ASuW credibility on its own.)
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Apr 9, 2022 18:40
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MrYenko posted:Brimstone/Sea Spear appears to be an excellent little missile, but it’s Hellfire-class, not an actual anti-ship missile. As an example, a Harpoon’s warhead alone is heavier than four complete Brimstone missiles. Great for small craft and armored vehicles, but not particularly useful against large amphibs or warships. What about strikes on the bridge and (god willing because the Russians are morons) exposed ammo and fuel onboard or being off loaded?
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Apr 9, 2022 19:02
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Marshal Prolapse posted:What about strikes on the bridge and (god willing because the Russians are morons) exposed ammo and fuel onboard or being off loaded? Any hit is a good hit, ya. It just probably isn’t going to be a hard-kill except in exceptional circumstances. Range is also a pretty significant factor for something like a Brimstone or Hellfire.
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Apr 9, 2022 19:11
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Marshal Prolapse posted:What about strikes on the bridge and (god willing because the Russians are morons) exposed ammo and fuel onboard or being off loaded? A bridge strike could do something cause it would take out critical personel/equipment. Very low chance you do something with a fuel strike, the explosive tanks (JP5) should be topped off and inerted, the bunker tanks are unlikely to cause catastrophic failure with a direct hit. Ordinance would have to be break bulk and concentrated to cause catastrophic failure I would think, you would need a chain reaction or something so everything lights off. There are plenty of regulations on moving explosives since there's a lot of experience with poo poo blowing up on ships even if its just blasting caps. Its not impossible, just very unlikely I think.
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Apr 9, 2022 19:45
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MrYenko posted:Seconding this. My favorite part is the documentarian attempting to film a tiny indie doc about doping himself to prove how effective it can be in amateur competition and accidentally stumbling into the entire Russian doping program. Yeah that is 100% an insane documentary, totally did not see it finishing there from where it started.
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Apr 9, 2022 19:55
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A brief overview of the kind of equipment Ukraine is receiving: https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1512532609435320325?t=SeK4CN9E02M226FyLYSJFA&s=19 Can't find it again, but I believe there was a NATO statement along the lines of, "we must be prepared that the conflict could take years, and start training Ukrainians to use Western equipment" recently.
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Apr 9, 2022 20:04
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lightpole posted:A bridge strike could do something cause it would take out critical personel/equipment. Very low chance you do something with a fuel strike, the explosive tanks (JP5) should be topped off and inerted, the bunker tanks are unlikely to cause catastrophic failure with a direct hit. Yeah the bridge strike I think is far more feasible and the other relies far more on Russian incompetence, based on what you’re saying. Also if a bridge strike went really well, you potentially could get a fairly high-ranking naval guy, which would be a nice little propaganda coup.
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Apr 9, 2022 20:24
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A.o.D. posted:Just the threat of being able to attack the Russian Navy ought to be enough to force Russia to retire those assets. With the Bosphorous closed, they can't reinforce or replace those hulls, and I suspect that their ability to repair damaged ships in situ is very limited. I dunno about their inability to repair in theater - isn't Sevastopol a major fleet base and half the reason why Russia wanted Crimea in the first place?
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Apr 9, 2022 20:33
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Tomn posted:I dunno about their inability to repair in theater - isn't Sevastopol a major fleet base and half the reason why Russia wanted Crimea in the first place? Ayup.
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Apr 9, 2022 20:42
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https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1512877988316078080?s=21&t=Sao8cdYurmx2dWSEz1Brag I am deeply concerned about what the Russians would be dropping that it would need a parachute to protect the plane dropping it. Like what in the US arsenal requires a parachute besides a daisy cutter or maybe a Moab?
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Apr 9, 2022 20:43
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Parachutes are to protect bombers? I always figured it was due to some property of the bomb
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