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Grouchio posted:What would a 'war declaration' change regarding the war? Full mobilization? Anything else? i think its just the usual THE ONLY REASON WE ARENT WINNING IS WE ARENT TRYING HARD ENOUGH, BETTER BE CAREFUL NOT TO MAKE US TRY full mobilization won't do poo poo, their problem isn't insufficient untrained cannon-fodder with no useable equipment
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Apr 15, 2022 21:01
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Captain Oblivious posted:They are mistaken then, because the stabbed in the back mythos in Germany shows us that there is a cost to simultaneously being very effective at propaganda and also failing to deliver results. I'd actually be interested in hearing more about this, since Russia seems to be on the same exact path. I'm no historian so my knowledge lacks some details. Nazi Germany and modern Russia aren't an exact 1:1 of course, but what happens when literal reality and government propaganda are so out of sync? When every commodity dries up, except maybe the basest goods like food and water, yet the government claims victory again and again?
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Apr 15, 2022 21:01
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ZombieLenin posted:It’s a very optimistic bordering on wishful thinking, but clancychat? That’s more like Ukrainian nationalists break into the Russian strategic nuclear arsenal and fire a single nuke at US to kick of World War Three in my head. My operating definition of Clancychat includes foreign armies marching into and conquering territory that Russia legally recognizes as its homeland.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:01
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ZombieLenin posted:It’s a very optimistic bordering on wishful thinking, but clancychat? That’s more like Ukrainian nationalists break into the Russian strategic nuclear arsenal and fire a single nuke at US to kick of World War Three in my head. So yeah I agree, I don't think it's Clancychat.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:02
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1514902489535066114?s=20&t=VHJntowJkyIB48I-7NJLjQ Hope they fare better against SAMs than their Navy does against brand new Anti-Ship systems.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:03
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cinci zoo sniper posted:My operating definition of Clancychat includes foreign armies marching into and conquering territory that Russia legally recognizes as its homeland. Ukraine also legally recognizes it as their homeland so I feel like there's a difference between Crimea and say Moscow. The most likely course is Ukraine can't/ doesn't retake it, but if this war went the likely course Russia would have won by now
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Apr 15, 2022 21:08
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CommieGIR posted:Hope they fare better against SAMs than their Navy does against brand new Anti-Ship systems. They might just be rehearsing for may flying like that
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Apr 15, 2022 21:09
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evilweasel posted:this video is really something That excuse sounds kind of weak when the Ukrainians sank the Moscow using Ukrainian-developed cruise missiles.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:12
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Cicero posted:If Ukraine manages to push Russia back to the 2014 borders -- which seems likely, given Russia's losses so far, ongoing problems, and increasing willingness from Western countries to send heavier weapons -- then bare minimum we can say that Ukrainians will certainly want to push Russia out of Crimea, I think. The sentiment will be there, there'll be a sense of momentum, maybe even a sense of, "if we don't do it now, we'll never do it." That is a bunch of conflated assumptions, hold on. I'm not saying it's Clancychat to post that Ukraine may push Russia back to February 23 borders, or that it wants from Crimea to return to the fold. What is Clancychat to me is posting about Russia losing land to military force, in the current conditions. If and when we get to the point where that changes, be my guest to post about.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:13
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CommieGIR posted:Hope they fare better against SAMs than their Navy does against brand new Anti-Ship systems. They are probably not even crossing into Ukrainian airspace, just flying to the border and dropping their cruise missiles, who have a range of 300km+++
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Apr 15, 2022 21:14
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MSB3000 posted:I'd actually be interested in hearing more about this, since Russia seems to be on the same exact path. I'm no historian so my knowledge lacks some details. Nazi Germany and modern Russia aren't an exact 1:1 of course, but what happens when literal reality and government propaganda are so out of sync? When every commodity dries up, except maybe the basest goods like food and water, yet the government claims victory again and again? One hitler in hand is worth 2 in the bush
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Apr 15, 2022 21:14
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GaussianCopula posted:They are probably not even crossing into Ukrainian airspace, just flying to the border and dropping their cruise missiles, who have a range of 300km+++ If they have enough left. They've been doing a lot of sorties.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:15
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I think we should wait for some actual progress on Kherson before we start thinking about Crimea
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Apr 15, 2022 21:16
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ranbo das posted:Ukraine also legally recognizes it as their homeland so I feel like there's a difference between Crimea and say Moscow. There's no difference between the two to Russia. If they lose Crimea to Ukrainian soldiers, the state is done. Putin will just get choked with a Hitachi wand on his golden toilet, and we'll get a Eurasian civil war. Consequently, Russia will defend Crimea as they will defend everything else, which is why even Ukrainians even as recently as week ago are repeatedly saying that they have no interest in pursuing military resolution to the topic of Crimea.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:17
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Deteriorata posted:My argument is that Ukraine is ultimately going to kick Russia's rear end and Russia's military is going to fall apart. Ukraine is not going to let them scamper back to the pre-invasion borders, they're going to take everything they can get - back to the pre-2014 borders. The Russians will agree to it because they will be effectively surrendering. I think if Ukraine manages to push back Russia to its pre-invasion February borders there will be a tremendous amount of political pressure put on Ukraine to accept a cease fire. This will, most likely, include a pulling back of the amount of military aid Ukraine is currently receiving. I agree with Cinci in this respect, I am not saying what you think will happen will not happen, just that it is a wildly optimistic take on the possible outcomes of the current war.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:19
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Deteriorata posted:My argument is that Ukraine is ultimately going to kick Russia's rear end and Russia's military is going to fall apart. Ukraine is not going to let them scamper back to the pre-invasion borders, they're going to take everything they can get - back to the pre-2014 borders. The Russians will agree to it because they will be effectively surrendering. There's also talk about Crimea being completely in the dumpster at this point with the economy much worse off than Russia proper, police being absent, men being basically press-ganged into military service, etc. It's hard to say how much of that is actually true. But I think that in addition to a military collapse, the LNR/DNR and Crimea could very well see a 'civic collapse' - as in the population either doesn't want to be part of Russia (under the current regime) or loses the will to have an opinion on the matter. So we could see something that isn't Ukrainian military rolling into Crimea, but Russian units deserting/looting en masse and the population *asking* for peacekeepers, and in the LNR/DNR, the majority of the remaining population caring more about peace than whether they are part of one or the other state. If there is a true Russian military collapse on the ground, Ukraine won't have to actively push into those areas. There might be some stand-offs at Sevastopol depending on circumstances, but if the collapse ends up being bad enough, who knows? So while a liberation carried out against actively defending Russian units is Clancychat - a disintegration of the Russian army is much less so. And if Kremlin keeps going, I think that is where this will end up. They haven't magically conjured functional logistics, morale and c2 in the aftermath of the northern withdrawal. I think once again many are overestimating what the state and capabilities of the Russian military are. They can cause tremendous destruction, sure. But the military is so dysfunctional that the cost in materiel and lives from even the most basic of maneuvers is immense. And they're about to launch an offensive against positions that have had years of fortification and which are held by highly motivated, well-equipped, experienced troops. At the same time they're trying to do fancy encirclement stuff against an enemy that has the intelligence capabilities of NATO and the US, the home advantage, a fully mobilized army and a constant flow of weapons. The Russian military is going to be smashed to pieces if they don't stop this war soon. As mentioned, they are perfectly capable of inflicting lots of suffering and destruction in the process - but the idea that the Russian military can keep absorbing current losses without breaking apart is strange. I'm still hoping for a coup against Putin - it's the only way I see this war ending without the Russian military disintegrating in the most humiliating of circumstances, likely spilling over into looting and chaos in the Russian border oblasts and Belarus. And that could easily lead to the Russian Federation balkanizing, which would be a rather significant stability risk for the world at large
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Apr 15, 2022 21:22
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CommieGIR posted:Hope they fare better against SAMs than their Navy does against brand new Anti-Ship systems. I hope they don't and eat poo poo
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Apr 15, 2022 21:23
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KillHour posted:I hope they don't and eat poo poo The sarcasm was implied.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:24
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That is a bunch of conflated assumptions, hold on. I'm not saying it's Clancychat to post that Ukraine may push Russia back to February 23 borders, or that it wants from Crimea to return to the fold. What is Clancychat to me is posting about Russia losing land to military force, in the current conditions. If and when we get to the point where that changes, be my guest to post about. They've already lost conquered land to military force in this war. This isn't a hypothetical jerk session about Ukrainian tanks pushing onto Moscow. If the Russian offensive in the Donbas fails, the Ukrainians retaking Crimea is very much on the table (if unlikely).
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Apr 15, 2022 21:24
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Yeah, at this point I'm assuming between the warcrimes, outrage, and the lovely Russian performance: LNR/DNR are not on the table for Ukraine, they are going to take them back. Maybe not Crimea, but I fully expect the Ukrainians to push Russia out of Donbas.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:25
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marxismftw posted:They've already lost conquered land to military force in this war. This isn't a hypothetical jerk session about Ukrainian tanks pushing onto Moscow. If the Russian offensive in the Donbas fails, the Ukrainians retaking Crimea is very much on the table (if unlikely). I meant land Russia recognises de jure as theirs, if this wasn’t obvious.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:27
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Don't know if it was posted already, but Scholz is giving "more than 1 billion euros" to Ukraine to shop for weapons.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:27
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I wish I had your folks' optimism. Anyway: https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1515047555868119044
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Apr 15, 2022 21:27
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Honj Steak posted:Don't know if it was posted already, but Scholz is giving "more than 1 billion euros" to Ukraine to shop for weapons. Like, just straight up giving them money? Certainly one way to avoid exporting arms.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:31
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I think Ukrainian troops going into Crimea is still deep into the Clancychat. Cutting off that water supply again would be a more attainable aim, destroying the Crimean Bridge would be a much harder secondary goal... all the rest i leave to smarter people than me. 
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Apr 15, 2022 21:31
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1514902489535066114?s=20&t=VHJntowJkyIB48I-7NJLjQ God I’d love for them to get a Blackjack.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:32
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Morrow posted:Like, just straight up giving them money? Certainly one way to avoid exporting arms. Yup. 1.2 billion directly in their bank accounts and another 400 million for the “European Peace Facility” (whatever that is) to also acquire weapons to be used in Ukraine.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:35
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marxismftw posted:They've already lost conquered land to military force in this war. This isn't a hypothetical jerk session about Ukrainian tanks pushing onto Moscow. If the Russian offensive in the Donbas fails, the Ukrainians retaking Crimea is very much on the table (if unlikely). Russian initial offensive failed because of logistics. Sevastopol is a huge military base with nuke proof caves, defenders wouldn't be running out of supplies soon. And the terrain favours defender. At this point it's pointless to look beyond the liberation of Mariupol and other cities occupied since February, because if Ukraine manages that then the game will change in ways we can't predict yet.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:36
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cinci zoo sniper posted:My operating definition of Clancychat includes foreign armies marching into and conquering territory that Russia legally recognizes as its homeland. Fair enough. I think it’s a non-starter in any case, but what I would say to you is that if the Ukrainian Armed Forces could expel Russia from Crimea, which is an illegally annexed portion of Ukraine that is recognized as Russian by no one but Russia and Russian puppet/satellite states, they have every right to do so; or at least desire to do so. This is particularly the case given that Ukraine did not start the current war, but is responding to yet another illegal invasion of their country by Russia whereby the Russians hoped to illegally annex more (or all) of Ukrainian territory. This would have been followed, I am sure, by another declaration that the newly annexed Ukrainian territory was “part of the Russian homeland.” All of that said, like I stated at the top… Ukraine expelling Russia from Crimea is very unlikely. Fake edit: I will note that Russia did not start moaning about the Ukrainians attacking Russia proper, and how the Ukrainians should not do this because it makes peace impossible (oh the irony) until parts of Russia not in Crimea were attacked—Ukraine has been conducting strikes in Crimea since almost day one. So it’s almost like the Russian state itself is not actually convinced that Crimea is part of the “Russian homeland.” ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 21:57 on Apr 15, 2022 |
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Apr 15, 2022 21:36
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PederP posted:There's also talk about Crimea being completely in the dumpster at this point with the economy much worse off than Russia proper, police being absent, men being basically press-ganged into military service, etc. It's hard to say how much of that is actually true. But I think that in addition to a military collapse, the LNR/DNR and Crimea could very well see a 'civic collapse' - as in the population either doesn't want to be part of Russia (under the current regime) or loses the will to have an opinion on the matter. So we could see something that isn't Ukrainian military rolling into Crimea, but Russian units deserting/looting en masse and the population *asking* for peacekeepers, and in the LNR/DNR, the majority of the remaining population caring more about peace than whether they are part of one or the other state. so is there just a moment where everything just breaks? CommieGIR posted:Yeah, at this point I'm assuming between the warcrimes, outrage, and the lovely Russian performance: LNR/DNR are not on the table for Ukraine, they are going to take them back. Maybe not Crimea, but I fully expect the Ukrainians to push Russia out of Donbas. i have see stories that LNR/DNR troops have been basicaly used as human wave canon fodder so yeah, if some military collapse happens, i see them either loving off into russia/home or defecting.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:37
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I meant land Russia recognises de jure as theirs, if this wasn’t obvious. Yeah, but doesn't that just apply to all of Ukraine? I'm not trying to be pedantic here, I just don't quite follow the thinking here that retaking some part of occupied Ukraine is somehow out of bounds for the current Ukraine war discussion thread.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:38
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Nenonen posted:Russian initial offensive failed because of logistics. Sevastopol is a huge military base with nuke proof caves, defenders wouldn't be running out of supplies soon. And the terrain favours defender. At this point it's pointless to look beyond the liberation of Mariupol and other cities occupied since February, because if Ukraine manages that then the game will change in ways we can't predict yet. They're also be fighting against a population that is likely hostile to them at this point
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Apr 15, 2022 21:38
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marxismftw posted:Yeah, but doesn't that just apply to all of Ukraine? I'm not trying to be pedantic here, I just don't quite follow the thinking here that retaking some part of occupied Ukraine is somehow out of bounds for the current Ukraine war discussion thread. Because for Russia, Crimea is Russia. Other parts of Ukraine is not Russia.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:39
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Honj Steak posted:Don't know if it was posted already, but Scholz is giving "more than 1 billion euros" to Ukraine to shop for weapons. It's mostly a PR move by Scholz/Lindner to silence their critics about not helping Ukraine enough. They announced today that they did put that money in the budget, but it's not (entirely) new money for Ukraine but the financing for German/European have alerady announced, e.g. the European Peace Facility (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/european-peace-facility/). But it seems to work at least in Germany, with the headlines echoing your statement.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:39
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Honj Steak posted:Yup. 1.2 billion directly in their bank accounts and another 400 million for the “European Peace Facility” (whatever that is) to also acquire weapons to be used in Ukraine. European Peace Facility is an out-of-budget funding facility of CFSP. In simple language, 1.2bn is for Ukraine to spend, and 400m is for EU to spend on military procurement for Ukraine.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:39
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As far as I understand it, the EPF is basically an EU fund that members put money in that then gets used to reimburse member states for weapon shipments. I.e. Germany put big bags of cash into the EPF, which other EU members that have sent other hardware can then use to get cash back, e.g. for sending T-72s. Why use such a complicated vehicle? European_Union.txt, basically. Additionally, a lot of the aid Ukraine has been receiving also goes like this: Ukraine received a catalogue of all arms manufacturers, plus a sack of cash. Ukraine is then let loose with a shopping cart.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:40
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PederP posted:I'm still hoping for a coup against Putin It'd be great if it happens but I don't see any reason to expect it to. Despite some colossal gently caress ups by him and his cronies in prosecuting this war by and large the people of Russia either back him OR aren't willing to do anything about him due to his skill in suppressing any opposition. Same is true of the military at large as far as I can tell. While he isn't a good leader he definitely seems to have some real skill, and lots of ruthlessness, in protecting himself and his grip on power. Even if the Russians get soundly whooped in this war (ie. booted out of Donbas and the rest of Ukraine) I don't think he'll get couped or go away. And in the short term it appears the sanctions won't hit Russia hard enough to cause some major social unrest to threaten him either. Long term (as others in thread were talking about like a month ago, that recent Perun vid lays this all out pretty well too) though Russia is looking to be fairly or seriously screwed and will have to decide on either becoming a China vassal state or becoming something like a North Korean autarky. I can't see Putin letting Russia become a vassal state but more and more I can totally see Russia becoming a autarky of sorts. He seems to be going down the strongman path and perhaps has even personally bought into his own bullshit to some degree so doubling down on their mistakes and/or wallowing in denial is the path of least resistance for those types.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:40
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GaussianCopula posted:It's mostly a PR move by Scholz/Lindner to silence their critics about not helping Ukraine enough. They announced today that they did put that money in the budget, but it's not (entirely) new money for Ukraine but the financing for German/European have alerady announced, e.g. the European Peace Facility (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/european-peace-facility/). Have they stopped preventing Rheinmetal(sp?) from exporting old stuff they just have laying around they've been itching to sell for 6 weeks now?
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Apr 15, 2022 21:41
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Nenonen posted:Russian initial offensive failed because of logistics. Sevastopol is a huge military base with nuke proof caves, defenders wouldn't be running out of supplies soon. And the terrain favours defender. At this point it's pointless to look beyond the liberation of Mariupol and other cities occupied since February, because if Ukraine manages that then the game will change in ways we can't predict yet. Russia failed because its armed forces are a hollowed out shell of a competent military. Logistics are a big part of that, but only one, and if Russia ruins what's left of their active forces in a failed offensive in the JFO, I don't see any reason that Ukrainians can't slowly recapture territory. Again, I don't suggest it's likely, but it's far from fantasy given what we've seen over the last month and a half.
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Apr 15, 2022 21:42
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I think it's important to realize an army doesn't keep fighting to the last man after a certain point. Historic conflicts, including modern ones, are full of large formations surrendering without sieges or encirclements. It is perfectly possible that Kremlin could lose control of large parts of the military, if the snowball starts rolling. There have been talk of marauding Russian stragglers already - if Kremlin pushes the army too hard, there could be mass desertion, large-scale surrender, units moving back across the border to loot and pillage unopposed. The mass use of ethnic minorities in the most battle-exposed Russian units mean that some of the units that might have been looting and/or starving would perhaps not see it as too big of a difference whether they loot in Crimea or Kherson, Kharkiv or Belgorod, etc. And if the war ends with that kind of chaos, it really isn't Clancychat to consider that Ukrainian units might move into parts of Crimea to restore order. I don't think the Putin regime would be long for this world in the case of a military disintegration - but I also think they would have their hands full with more... local.. issues if large formations just surrender and desert. Kremlin has been big on overcommitting in this war. Losing under such circumstances can be really messy. If Russia moves into a defensive position, sure, then it's Clancychat to consider Ukrainian conquest of (de facto) Russian territory. If Russia keeps doing what it's doing right now, then I think all bets are off on what the borders of Russia will be in the aftermath - or if it will even exist as we know it. PederP fucked around with this message at 21:44 on Apr 15, 2022 |
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Apr 15, 2022 21:42
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