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Basically Russia has another offensive left in it, in which they try to eke out a win. Then Ukraine counterattacks and tries to retake Kherson. THEN we see some real negotiations.
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Apr 16, 2022 04:57
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Bremen posted:I think Ukraine might accept a deal where Russia retains Crimea without Ukraine recognizing their ownership, but not Donbas. I thought they would demand it back, but now they have AS missiles that can blockade Sevastopol Station, they have the power to lock it down when required. They might blow up the Kerch bridge though.
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Apr 16, 2022 05:41
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Its really hard to guess what Ukrainian leadership thinks about its chances to regain some if not all of its pre 2014 borders
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Apr 16, 2022 06:24
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Despera posted:Its really hard to guess what Ukrainian leadership thinks about its chances to regain some if not all of its pre 2014 borders How were they going down there prior to the invasion? Was there something stopping them from taking that back (one of those Minsk agreements) or were they simply not capable? If they do take that land back I think the most likely way it happens is Russia withdraws (denazification declared complete) and the military resistance in the DPR and LDR collapses with the withdrawal of that support.
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Apr 16, 2022 06:30
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https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1515073778589569028 This got picked up on the GBS thread, speculating that the might do another landing attempt or show of force. Seems pretty dumb to do it without the floating SAM but would also be very on-brand
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Apr 16, 2022 06:49
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mobby_6kl posted:https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1515073778589569028 If they were smart they might be using them as bait to provoke Ukraine into firing off some more missiles and revealing the location of the battery and radar.
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Apr 16, 2022 06:54
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Vox Nihili posted:Russia can end the war at any time by agreeing to a ceasefire and return to the pre-war status quo. Ukraine would surely accept, it's ludicrous to suggest that Ukraine would aggressively press Russia rather than accept peacefully recovering its occupied cities. In your head, how does that conversation go? Like what do you think the speech is that Zelenskyy gives to the parents with children buried in a mass grave, to the women who've been gang raped, to the vast millions whose entire way of life is gone for the next generation? This is not a rhetorical question, I want you to actually tell me what you think the message is to get Ukraine to stand down, and why the gently caress you'd think they'd take it when they have the upper hand.
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Apr 16, 2022 06:57
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mobby_6kl posted:https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1515073778589569028 The Ukrainians will send out Bayaraktars, and the Russians will ignore them as decoys until the Bayaraktars launch missiles from 50 feet away.
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Apr 16, 2022 06:57
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mobby_6kl posted:https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1515073778589569028 What's the definition of insanity, Vladimir?
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Apr 16, 2022 07:09
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gay picnic defence posted:If they were smart they might be using them as bait to provoke Ukraine into firing off some more missiles and revealing the location of the battery and radar. Okay. Let's imagine this succeeds. They lose another hundred million dollar ship with a couple of hundred sailors in order to take out a Neptune missile battery with half a dozen guys. The missile battery will be replaced by British Harpoon missiles within the week. ... Good job?
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Apr 16, 2022 07:10
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mobby_6kl posted:https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1515073778589569028 Either they actually have a plan or this is some leadership frantically screaming at the sailors to get back out into the fight and stop making Russia look bad. If Ukraine sinks the fleet we'll know which one it was. quote:If they were smart they might be using them as bait to provoke Ukraine into firing off some more missiles and revealing the location of the battery and radar. This got pointed out but like, you need to understand that ships are force multipliers and each single ship is tactically significant. Trading hundred million dollar investments vs a few thousand dollar ones is.... well that's NOT smart. Losing their flagship to a couple of neptunes was a huge tactical (but not strategic) blow. Nelson Mandingo fucked around with this message at 07:36 on Apr 16, 2022 |
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Apr 16, 2022 07:32
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Either they actually have a plan or this is some leadership frantically screaming at the sailors to get back out into the fight and stop making Russia look bad. If Ukraine sinks the fleet we'll know which one it was. I'm really thinking it's the latter. Odesa was too heavily fortified for a landing and the anti-shipping defenses and mines were picking off the Black Sea Fleet slowly that they just pulled them back to Sevastopol to keep from losing more. The Russians are definitely in "do something" mode here. I'm wondering who's in those landing ships. After failing to land on Odesa, the Naval Infantry units got sent to Mariupol and got decimated there or are still locking in combat. They can't be stuffing fresh conscripts in them and sending them off empty as bait for Neptune or Harpoon launchers feels like a waste of resources just to hit some truck launcher.
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Apr 16, 2022 07:43
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I really think it's as simple as not wanting to look weak.
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Apr 16, 2022 07:47
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Sailors could start mutinying if they just sit idly at port spreading rumours of what happened to Moskva and her crew.
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Apr 16, 2022 07:58
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Honestly I think if Russia loses any more black fleet ships that would a tremendous defeat. Russian leadership might not care about the soldiers who are taken from poor regions lives but they absolutely do care about power projection and losing any more could potentially be where the losses to Russia's overall strength become intolerable in continuing the war. In theory, anyway. They might literally believe there is no existence of Russia as a state without conquering Ukraine. And they might be right. But only if they continue their current trajectory. I'm a big proponent of switching America to a space development complex and Russia could easily make that transition as well. But that takes imagination and change is scary. Nelson Mandingo fucked around with this message at 08:06 on Apr 16, 2022 |
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Apr 16, 2022 08:04
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I really do hope the optimists are right regarding how this is going to go on. This far even taking back territory lost in the south has not seemed very easy. But at least if it does turn out worse than we hoped, we'll always have the back-stabbing Germans to blame for it.
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Apr 16, 2022 08:11
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If Moskva was providing SAM coverage over Kherson, none of the ships moving to the area have any serious LR SAM capabilities, correct? I mean you could park an S-300 battery on a cargo ship deck maybe but  Otherwise to cover anything onshore those ships would be GRAD-bait surely.
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Apr 16, 2022 08:25
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Anyways, I think not enough has been said about the fact that Russian killed in action has likely past 20,000 in 51 days. That's nearly 400 dead every day. That may only be a mid-sized WWI or II battle, but Putin's Russia is not the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire. They are not mobilizing for total war. They have perhaps begun calling up 60k in the last few days and it will be months before they are ready for the field, though Putin my throw them into the fire immediately. Ukraine has mobilized for total war. They are arming and training hundreds of thousands of men who have already served in the military. Even if Ukrainian losses are three times what Zelensky has admitted, then the time is quickly coming that the Russian position in Ukraine will simply collapse and Ukrainian forces will roll over all of them. To some extent I'm surprised it hasn't happened already. The Russians were lucky they managed to stabilize the southern and eastern fronts after the collapse of the north. But their collapse is coming soon. The math makes it inevitable.
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Apr 16, 2022 08:33
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Rust Martialis posted:If Moskva was providing SAM coverage over Kherson, none of the ships moving to the area have any serious LR SAM capabilities, correct? They still have BUK equivalents on their destroyers (medium range SAM) which provides some aircover but given the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery, they were probably weary to park their fleet in GRAD-range (~20km) of the shore anyway.
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Apr 16, 2022 08:39
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d64 posted:I really do hope the optimists are right regarding how this is going to go on. This far even taking back territory lost in the south has not seemed very easy. Playing defense means lopsided kill rates on men and materiel. If we go with the recent casualty numbers from UA then it's been what, 6:1 in terms of casualties and in theory the Ukrainians have net *gained* tanks? If you think the Russians are going to keep trying to collapse the JFO area in Donbass, do you start going in offense or do you wait to see if you get them to commit whatever offensive strength they have left and try to break them? If - and this is a lot of 'if' here - the Russians have really looked at the situation and if they really have been chewed up like we hope, it's possible they are worried that another massive failed offensive would wreck them for a long refit period - like writing off the summer, meaning it's hello rasputitsa again in the autumn. Meanwhile you do local counteroffensives in the Chersonese and Izyum to block breakouts and outflanks, trying to force them to make frontal assaults while you shell the slaughterhouse at Chornobaivka *again* and chop at their logistics. I wonder if shelling Belgorod is trying in part to provoke the Russians into more hasty assaults - the screaming over the loss of Moskva in Russian TV must be having some effect.
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Apr 16, 2022 08:40
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Willo567 posted:Is there any source for this quote other than this one Twitter account? Are they reliable? That account normally is adequate enough to cite, but I cannot find this specific statement anywhere. Rust Martialis posted:If Moskva was providing SAM coverage over Kherson, none of the ships moving to the area have any serious LR SAM capabilities, correct? It was the only floating S-300, as far as I know. However, they could’ve just rolled normal S-300 closer in from Crimea, by land. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 09:14 on Apr 16, 2022 |
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Apr 16, 2022 09:08
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Rust Martialis posted:
Attack all along the line at night. The Ukrainians have the manpower and the night vision gear. The Russians have neither.
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Apr 16, 2022 09:23
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Charlz Guybon posted:Why local counteroffensives? Because that kind of 'strategy' leads to your troops running out of supplies and dying in the tens of thousands.
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Apr 16, 2022 09:35
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That account normally is adequate enough to cite, but I cannot find this specific statement anywhere. Yeah, that's why I asked because I also couldn't find anything about this
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Apr 16, 2022 10:07
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Vox Nihili posted:Russia can end the war at any time by agreeing to a ceasefire and return to the pre-war status quo. Ukraine would surely accept, it's ludicrous to suggest that Ukraine would aggressively press Russia rather than accept peacefully recovering its occupied cities. People are objecting to this but it tracks with Zelensky's position Zelensky's "ruled out trying to recapture all Russian-held territory by force, saying it would lead to a third world war, and said he wanted to reach a "compromise" over the eastern Donbas region, held by Russian-backed forces since 2014."" https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-27/volodymyr-zelenskyy-says-ukraine-willing-to-become-neutral/100943192 Mind you if they do pursue a territorial white peace at the negotiation table that's not the same as ceding the entire Dondas. The separatists only had control of a third or so of the region before the war after all. But, sadly, as Morrow points out substantive negotiations are likely to be a long ways off in any case Morrow posted:Basically Russia has another offensive left in it, in which they try to eke out a win. Then Ukraine counterattacks and tries to retake Kherson. THEN we see some real negotiations.
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Apr 16, 2022 10:13
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Three days and no news on the Moskva crew? So basically we have a Kursk disaster time five that Russia is keeping quiet.
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Apr 16, 2022 10:34
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Guess who?
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Apr 16, 2022 10:35
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CSM posted:Three days and no news on the Moskva crew? If there were marines on board in addition to crew it could be even worse. Tho they are probably fighting in donbas right now.
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Apr 16, 2022 10:35
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PerilPastry posted:People are objecting to this but it tracks with Zelensky's position This is from March 27th. The way this war is going (and most others are as well), it might as well be from 100 years ago. It's his statement about "neutrality", which to Russia means "our backyard", but he wanted it to be backed by a group of countries from different regions, which was a non-starter. Additionally, he has a way of releasing statements that through some game of telephone between all the translations, misunderstandings and different definitions of the same terms come out to be very surprising before someone digs a little into what he actually meant. I guess this is why bigger countries have their own staff for translating their communications into major languages.
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Apr 16, 2022 10:42
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:This is from March 27th. The way this war is going (and most others are as well), it might as well be from 100 years ago. It's his statement about "neutrality", which to Russia means "our backyard", but he wanted it to be backed by a group of countries from different regions, which was a non-starter. Wasn't Ukraine's territorial sovereignty already guaranteed by both the USA and Russian Federation?
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Apr 16, 2022 10:46
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PerilPastry posted:People are objecting to this but it tracks with Zelensky's position I have a theory that the reason Russia pulled out of peace talks the other week is that a more confident Ukraine stepped up their demands and Russia wasn't even willing to negotiate around those.
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Apr 16, 2022 10:48
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Gervasius posted:Guess who? le reality of the world where Russia should just be allowed to gently caress with whoever they want on a dime right? God I hate these people so much, and boy will I cackle if the Ukrainians manage to gut russia's entire standing armed forces capacity. Every vehicle, tank, and plane they lose can't be replaced. Ukrainians however are both doing well in supplies from other countries and captured gear. 
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Apr 16, 2022 10:50
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While Russia isn't going to be giving up Crimea in this war, I think the odds of them losing it in the next 5 to 20 years are pretty high. My gut instinct is that a post Putin successor will concede it as an "independent" state in order to normalise relations with the west again.
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Apr 16, 2022 10:59
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Bug Squash posted:While Russia isn't going to be giving up Crimea in this war, I think the odds of them losing it in the next 5 to 20 years are pretty high. My gut instinct is that a post Putin successor will concede it as an "independent" state in order to normalise relations with the west again. It will probably help that residents of Crimea will be looking at an economically hosed Russia with few prospects or a Ukraine that is the beneficiary of a Marshall Plan.
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Apr 16, 2022 11:21
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Didn't see this posted yesterday, apologies if it's old Germany budgets 2,5bn - 3bn for floating LNG terminals https://www.handelsblatt.com/politi...s/28256516.html deepl translation posted:Finance minister approves almost 2.5 billion euros for LNG terminals
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Apr 16, 2022 11:22
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Gervasius posted:Guess who? I really, truly wonder whether they’re talking in bad faith to be contrarian assholes or paid shills, or whether they genuinely cannot conceive of the reality of the situation right now, namely that Russia is in no place to force a victory and the economic clock is ticking for them as thy are unable to replace losses to materiel.
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Apr 16, 2022 11:27
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Gervasius posted:Guess who? Sounds like Mearsheimer who is still frozen in his view of Russia as a global superpower, and continues to advocate for appeasement and insisting Ukraine must become neutral and kowtow to Moscow. It's almost like he loathes the idea of a world where Russia is not a great power. At the same time he staunchly claims that the EU and India can never become great powers. The crazy part is that the world is multi-polar - especially when looking at economic power. It's just not the poles that he is fixated on: USA, Russia, China. It is not a law of nature that Russia must be a great power and the world must recognize it as such. This is the guy screaming about the hurricane being there whether we like or not, when there's nothing but a faint breeze. Yeah, sure, hurricanes exist. But this isn't one such. (I'm not trying to downplay the tragedy and magnitude of the suffering on the ground - but those are not related to any intrinsic power of Russia - that is just sadly what any lesser regional power can inflict when the brakes are off and they have nukes to prevent intervention). PederP fucked around with this message at 11:29 on Apr 16, 2022 |
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Apr 16, 2022 11:27
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Gervasius posted:Guess who? You can’t make me.  Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:Additionally, he has a way of releasing statements that through some game of telephone between all the translations, misunderstandings and different definitions of the same terms come out to be very surprising before someone digs a little into what he actually meant. I guess this is why bigger countries have their own staff for translating their communications into major languages. There was nothing to misinterpret in that statement.
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Apr 16, 2022 11:28
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That account normally is adequate enough to cite, but I cannot find this specific statement anywhere. That would still leave them quite exposed whenever they stray farther from the coast. Completely unrelated, but does anyone know if Mig-29s can carry anti-ship missiles?
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Apr 16, 2022 11:34
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PederP posted:Sounds like Mearsheimer who is still frozen in his view of Russia as a global superpower, and continues to advocate for appeasement and insisting Ukraine must become neutral and kowtow to Moscow. It's almost like he loathes the idea of a world where Russia is not a great power. At the same time he staunchly claims that the EU and India can never become great powers. The crazy part is that the world is multi-polar - especially when looking at economic power. It's just not the poles that he is fixated on: USA, Russia, China. It is not a law of nature that Russia must be a great power and the world must recognize it as such. This is the guy screaming about the hurricane being there whether we like or not, when there's nothing but a faint breeze. Yeah, sure, hurricanes exist. But this isn't one such. I do wonder if these people would apply the same reasoning if the US decided to invade another country? Sorry Iraqis, you might not like becoming a US puppet but they got nukes and them's the breaks.
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Apr 16, 2022 11:36
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