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CommieGIR posted:Future infantry spotted. I count about a hundred in that lineup? Add maybe another 58 total in Turkish impound, and idk how many injured, but I don't think we're going to see more than 250 survivors total.
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Apr 16, 2022 19:52
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jettisonedstuff posted:Who knows if any of it is true but if postal workers are stealing this stuff it's for the same reason the soldiers stole it: because they want it or whatever they can get for it by selling it in Russia. Russian postal workers are notorious for stealing mail and packages. I've dealt with Russia buyers via eBay and it was always hot or miss if anything got through to the buyer. Most sellers just block Russia as it's about the same as throwing a package into the trashcan. The Russian postal thievery gets much loving worse if the postal workers are having a period in which they aren't being paid which has happened before. https://bilimdon.ru/en/merzkie-vorishki-iz-pochty-rossii-kto-i-kak-voruet-na-pochte-v-rossii.html Vile thieves from the Russian Post. Who and how steals from the post office in Russia Fun article. There's some interesting comments too.
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Apr 16, 2022 20:01
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Grape posted:I really really don't have sympathy for people who have just moved there in terms of deciding what country has a right to it. To clarify, people were discussing the idea that people living in Crimea would maybe decide to "rejoin" Ukraine after the war. As being part of a sanctioned post-war Russia might not be such a great prospect. That's why I brought up the people who moved there after 2014, and might not be too keen on the idea. I did not ask for people to feel sympathy for Russians who moved to Crimea. I don't have any sympathy for them, and I used to spend time with these people.
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Apr 16, 2022 20:15
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DOOMocrat posted:Seeing there were maybe 3 Neptun missiles produced conjures an image of three British foreign supply officers giggling their asses off right now. As much as getting a valuable near prototype into position in a storm to hit a distracted Russian ship and make it sit on the dick is a heroic as gently caress story, I bet it was a solid boosted UK Harpoon. I mean, who cares; it just makes it amusing three times over instead of two. Harpoon has no land-based launchers, and Ukrainians know rocketry well. Edit: I’m wrong on this one, Denmark apparently had land-based Harpoons. FishBulbia posted:RF annouced control over all of Mariupol outside of the Asovstal factory. They claim to have killed or captured 23k Ukrainian forces during the operation. I’m fairly certain I saw RF MoD claiming taking control of the Azovstal a night or two ago. Not that it matters for their storytelling. Barrel Cactaur posted:I count about a hundred in that lineup? Turkey denies having any. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Apr 16, 2022 |
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Apr 16, 2022 20:15
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Doctor Teeth posted:This is only tangentially related to the war itself, but...why was Crimea ceded to the Ukrainian SSR? I've never really understood why that was done. Perhaps the water supply from the mainland etc is easier to arrange if the same entity is in charge of both Crimea and said mainland. But also, that decision apparently was made by Khrushchev, who lived in Ukraine from a young age and was the boss of the Ukrainian Soviet republic, maybe he was just biased?
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Apr 16, 2022 20:26
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Warbadger posted:I'm betting it was just Neptune missiles. They had a handful in service and the Harpoons wouldn't be in place immediately. I agree. If they don't shoot the missiles at the Moskva when they've got a golden opportunity, what's the point in having them? I wonder if they lost the drone that was working as a spotter and decoy.
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Apr 16, 2022 20:28
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1515333016142426112 Drafting up new recruits, training then and then getting them into units at the front would take months at best. If they're really planning a long war and thinking about offensives that would require soldiers not available until the late summer or fall, waiting another month to start the long process of getting ready would be foolish since you would be bleeding away in the meantime. The way they're still drip feeding in new manpower without starting mobilization suggests they haven't made that decision yet and still think they can win quick if they just scrap the bottom of the barrel a little harder.
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Apr 16, 2022 20:33
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jaete posted:Perhaps the water supply from the mainland etc is easier to arrange if the same entity is in charge of both Crimea and said mainland. But also, that decision apparently was made by Khrushchev, who lived in Ukraine from a young age and was the boss of the Ukrainian Soviet republic, maybe he was just biased? They had multiple reasons: - Decentralization as part of De-Stalinisation - Repopulating Crimea with Ukranians - Easier administration of infrastructure projects close to Crimea, such the Dnieper Hydroelectric Stations - Creating a stronger bond between Ukraine and Russia - Khrushchevs personal agenda e.g. him loving Ukraine and a bit of personality cult It's important to underline that it was basically a purely administrativ redistricting because the believe was that the USSR is eternal.
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Apr 16, 2022 20:45
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Why sanctions you ask? https://twitter.com/MargoGontar/status/1515373221855608834
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Apr 16, 2022 20:45
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saratoga posted:Drafting up new recruits, training then and then getting them into units at the front would take months at best. If they're really planning a long war and thinking about offensives that would require soldiers not available until the late summer or fall, waiting another month to start the long process of getting ready would be foolish since you would be bleeding away in the meantime. The way they're still drip feeding in new manpower without starting mobilization suggests they haven't made that decision yet and still think they can win quick if they just scrap the bottom of the barrel a little harder. The Austrian chancellor said Putin had expressed that he wanted the war over sooner rather than later. But he also said Putin is living in a bubble of sorts regarding the logic of the war, but while still being aware of most of the facts on the ground. I agree with your assessment, that they're 'stacking the deck' so to speak and trying to gain every little advantage possible to get a quick win - may guess is that the goal is to gain Donetsk, Luhansk and the land bridge (including Kherson) in the peace talks. I don't think this is a realistic plan - because it is requires operations on the ground to go much better for them than they have so far, and it requires Ukraine being willing to accept the above peace. But in the a bubble of twisted reality where Zelenskyy is a US puppet, Kremlin might think they're dealing with the US/NATO and disregard other actors. I also think they're overestimating the leverage they have on Europe from the gas deals. Such 'advantages' are commonly wildly overrated among desperate leaders. So I think Putin considers gas a key part of forcing the US and the EU to accept his terms when he's secured enough ground. "We'll just threaten to cut the gas if they don't accept!?!?". "Why would they refuse getting so much of Ukraine!?!". Autocrat logic is probably creating some really weird premises for how this will end. But I think this will not drag out - Russia can't afford pissing away their last economic and military power like that - China doesn't want this keep going. And so forth. But I also think there is no plan B to the 'after his offense we take what we have in peace talk' plan. So when it fails, who knows what they'll do instead. Hopefully cut their losses and accept Crimea is the only thing they have a chance at keeping. Anything else will end badly.
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Apr 16, 2022 20:46
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the popes toes posted:Why sanctions you ask? But I was told sanctions dont work/only hurt civilians! Also probably saved RUS tank crew lives than Ukrainian
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Apr 16, 2022 20:53
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Sanctions hurting poor working in tank factory class Russians
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Apr 16, 2022 20:55
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DOOMocrat posted:I bet it was a solid boosted UK Harpoon. Warbadger posted:the Harpoons wouldn't be in place immediately. cinci zoo sniper posted:Harpoon has no land-based launchers, and Ukrainians know rocketry well. I'm interrupting your Harpoon chat to ask if the speculation about Harpoons has actually been verified. Last I heard, the official UK statement didn't specify which type of missile they're sending. Nerds seem to jump on the Harpoon because it had video games named after it, but there are a bunch more plausible options. This article lists Brimstone Sea Spear, Exocet, and Marte missiles. https://esut.de/en/2022/04/meldungen/33522/grossbritannien-seezielflugkoerper-fuer-die-ukraine/
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Apr 16, 2022 21:03
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Like sanctions are infact absolutely hurting the average person in Russia presently and it's bad that they're doing so. But also it's the only realistic way to put pressure on Russia to stop attacking a neighbor.
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Apr 16, 2022 21:03
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FishBulbia posted:I think they're just pointing out that not everyone has a choice about fighting. You always have a choice. The alternative frequently sucks even worse but you always have a choice.
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Apr 16, 2022 21:05
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the popes toes posted:Why sanctions you ask? This will save so many ukrainian lives and make it easier to BTFO worthless russians without their tanks.
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Apr 16, 2022 21:09
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ChaseSP posted:Like sanctions are infact absolutely hurting the average person in Russia presently and it's bad that they're doing so. But also it's the only realistic way to put pressure on Russia to stop attacking a neighbor. How are the sanctions hurting the average person? Serious question. I've been wondering if they were even felt by the average Russian, besides the issue of travel.
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Apr 16, 2022 21:13
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One thing I'm kinda curious about - how's Ukraine's ammo and spare part stockpiles? My understanding is that Russia's managed to destroy most of Ukraine's native arms factories by this point, and while NATO as a whole is sending boatloads of stuff Ukrainian equipment is still largely Warsaw Pact and isn't compatible with NATO ammo. Small arms ammo probably isn't a huge issue since those are pretty plentiful, but how are they for artillery shells, Grad rockets, or Buk missiles? Modern warfare is pretty thirsty when it comes to heavy or precision ammo - as see Russia's own PGM stockpiles running low. And how many replacements could NATO potentially scrounge up to send them out of former EE stockpiles? Related, how much in the way of maintenance materials do they have for their own armored and mechanized forces? I wonder a bit if part of the reason why Ukraine is crying out for heavy weapons is precisely because they need to husband their existing stocks of Warsaw Pact supplies to keep their forces functioning and aren't willing to risk the major expenditure of an offensive draining those out and leaving them helpless on the defensive. Getting their hands on NATO equipment and NATO logistical lines would mean those concerns can go away and they can attack freely without having to worry about potentially crippling themselves. It'd require long lead time to set up, but once it is they might have a great deal more freedom of action.
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Apr 16, 2022 21:15
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saratoga posted:Drafting up new recruits, training then and then getting them into units at the front would take months at best. If they're really planning a long war and thinking about offensives that would require soldiers not available until the late summer or fall, waiting another month to start the long process of getting ready would be foolish since you would be bleeding away in the meantime. The way they're still drip feeding in new manpower without starting mobilization suggests they haven't made that decision yet and still think they can win quick if they just scrap the bottom of the barrel a little harder.
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Apr 16, 2022 21:17
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the popes toes posted:Why sanctions you ask? This is why I think general mobilization or total war is unlikely. They already sent their best stuff and soldiers when this war begun and their ability to replace them is rather limited. It would be easier to declare they 'won' this war and silence anyone on the inside who disagrees than doubling down. Or at least that would make sense, but they never seem to do what would be more reasonable.
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Apr 16, 2022 21:19
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Imaginary Friend posted:A Russian internet friend of mine said people in her vicinity are offered 1300euro/month to "go and kill some people" right now so meatshields will probably be available already. It's loving horrific. Hey if they last a month that's cheaper than an AT4 shot. Maybe with less effect though...
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Apr 16, 2022 21:20
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I don't know how it was communicated in other countries, but in Germany it was often said that the sanctions won't stop the war. They are there to degrade Russia's ability to wage further wars. And without German equipment Russian industry is going to slowly degrade and become less efficient. That will affect civilians, and that's the point of the sanctions. One example: Bread production. A lot of bread is made at industrial scale, which requires very specialised machines which are only made by a small 20 person company in Hintertupfingen. Without spare parts and consumables those machines become failure points that will eventually be degraded enough to fail. Extend that across the entire economy. It's a slow and gradual decline of accumulating failures. Of course civilians are going to be affected, just probably not dramatically from one day to another.
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Apr 16, 2022 21:21
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Yes after seeing that photo of mosin using russin troops the effectiveness of a general mobilization seemed less and less
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Apr 16, 2022 21:26
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The articles I have read say sanctions have not yet had a large effect on most Russians. Most unavailable products at this point are luxuries - a big exception being some prescription drugs that are harder to find than before. Matter of perspective if it's good that Russians with rare health issues can no longer get the medications they need. As for takes saying "Russia can't afford to --- so they won't do it" - I'm fairly skeptical about those. Russia could not afford to launch this invasion, it was a terrible idea, but they did it anyway. Only thing I think they really really cannot afford to do is start a nuclear war. Most everything else is in my eyes on the table.
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Apr 16, 2022 21:32
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Tomn posted:One thing I'm kinda curious about - how's Ukraine's ammo and spare part stockpiles? My understanding is that Russia's managed to destroy most of Ukraine's native arms factories by this point, and while NATO as a whole is sending boatloads of stuff Ukrainian equipment is still largely Warsaw Pact and isn't compatible with NATO ammo. Small arms ammo probably isn't a huge issue since those are pretty plentiful, but how are they for artillery shells, Grad rockets, or Buk missiles? Modern warfare is pretty thirsty when it comes to heavy or precision ammo - as see Russia's own PGM stockpiles running low. And how many replacements could NATO potentially scrounge up to send them out of former EE stockpiles? Related, how much in the way of maintenance materials do they have for their own armored and mechanized forces? Warsaw Pact and ex-SSR countries probably have a pretty good store of ammo and spare parts. They seem to be shipping a lot of it to Ukraine in exchange for modern NATO stuff. I have no idea how long that can go on before they run out. If the war is going to go on for a year or more, it starts getting feasible to transition to NATO-standard stuff for Ukraine that is currently being manufactured. I'm sure the people in charge have thought all of this through several times over already.
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Apr 16, 2022 21:33
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d64 posted:The articles I have read say sanctions have not yet had a large effect on most Russians. Most unavailable products at this point are luxuries - a big exception being some prescription drugs that are harder to find than before. Matter of perspective if it's good that Russians with rare health issues can no longer get the medications they need. It's an international law requirement that medical supplies, drugs, equipment, are not sanctioned. However, problems with non-SWIFT payments, lack of truck drivers, spoilage and damage due to transit times all contribute to getting med stuff into Russia. But med stuff isn't sanctioned. There are aid NGO's working to assist with these issues.
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Apr 16, 2022 21:38
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the popes toes posted:How are the sanctions hurting the average person? Serious question. I've been wondering if they were even felt by the average Russian, besides the issue of travel. Food prices, such as bread, are up as much as 50% versus February in some places in Russia, as a specific example that I know. They’re looking at >20% annual inflation while being having a 17% federal interest rate. People dependent on foreign services (e.g. freelancers paid via PayPal) are effectively jobless, and so are people from sanctioned companies. Industries like aviation, automotive, or advertising have just died (advertising I’m not really sad about, though). So far it’s all manageable, but they’re still churning through pre-sanctions reserves on many things. That said, Russia remains about as belligerent as it has been from the start, so I support strong escalation of sanctions. Tomn posted:One thing I'm kinda curious about - how's Ukraine's ammo and spare part stockpiles? My understanding is that Russia's managed to destroy most of Ukraine's native arms factories by this point, and while NATO as a whole is sending boatloads of stuff Ukrainian equipment is still largely Warsaw Pact and isn't compatible with NATO ammo. Small arms ammo probably isn't a huge issue since those are pretty plentiful, but how are they for artillery shells, Grad rockets, or Buk missiles? Modern warfare is pretty thirsty when it comes to heavy or precision ammo - as see Russia's own PGM stockpiles running low. And how many replacements could NATO potentially scrounge up to send them out of former EE stockpiles? Related, how much in the way of maintenance materials do they have for their own armored and mechanized forces? I think you’re on the money with this one. We will doubtfully know about Ukrainian side of things, but it would be interesting to dig around and see if we can figure out what kind of ammunition supply do Visegrad countries send along their vehicles. Antigravitas posted:I don't know how it was communicated in other countries, but in Germany it was often said that the sanctions won't stop the war. They are there to degrade Russia's ability to wage further wars. And without German equipment Russian industry is going to slowly degrade and become less efficient. That will affect civilians, and that's the point of the sanctions. The messaging here was the same, to impair Russia’s ability to sustain this war and to prepare for future wars. Despera posted:Yes after seeing that photo of mosin using russin troops the effectiveness of a general mobilization seemed less and less Mosins were there for WW2 LARP. the popes toes posted:It's an international law requirement that medical supplies, drugs, equipment, are not sanctioned. Sanctions still affect medical supplies, just in a roundabout way. Russia can no longer get new dental drills, apparently - I wouldn’t be surprised if that extends to a vast array of other medical equipment that isn’t like iron lungs or blood transfusion machines.
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Apr 16, 2022 21:57
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I forget if it was this thread I read it or elsewhere, but there also will be a problem for Russia with advanced medical imaging equipment. There's a maintenance rota, charging with exotic gasses, and a centralized management component that can't really happen with sanctions in place, though that might have been negotiated around for all I know as it was a couple weeks ago. And that's just one thing out of a plethora of many others.
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Apr 16, 2022 22:01
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Russians won't starve or lack for fuel, heating and electricity. Companies will go out of business but since Russia is a global top 3 exporter of the unholy trifecfa of oil, coal and gas the Russian government can easily support people who lose their jobs. The Russian government will likely chose to continue to subsidize purchases of dachas and yachts for billionaires instead which is tragic but ultimately their choice. It's terrible that the Russian government have chosen to do this.
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Apr 16, 2022 22:02
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https://twitter.com/kyivpride/status/1515291671495385090 They’re having fun with Russian attempts to claim that Arestovych had gay sex in a Moscow hotel in 2005.
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Apr 16, 2022 22:12
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Tomn posted:One thing I'm kinda curious about - how's Ukraine's ammo and spare part stockpiles? My understanding is that Russia's managed to destroy most of Ukraine's native arms factories by this point, and while NATO as a whole is sending boatloads of stuff Ukrainian equipment is still largely Warsaw Pact and isn't compatible with NATO ammo. Small arms ammo probably isn't a huge issue since those are pretty plentiful, but how are they for artillery shells, Grad rockets, or Buk missiles? Modern warfare is pretty thirsty when it comes to heavy or precision ammo - as see Russia's own PGM stockpiles running low. And how many replacements could NATO potentially scrounge up to send them out of former EE stockpiles? Related, how much in the way of maintenance materials do they have for their own armored and mechanized forces? my understanding is that in the past, nato has struggled to acquire non-standard ammunition and has been trying to build a domestic industry to produce those kinds of arms for precisely this reason. i am not sure to what degree they have succeeded, though.
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Apr 16, 2022 22:15
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Concerned Citizen posted:my understanding is that in the past, nato has struggled to acquire non-standard ammunition and has been trying to build a domestic industry to produce those kinds of arms for precisely this reason. i am not sure to what degree they have succeeded, though. Producing eastern-bloc ammo in wartime quantities would require a player in the defense industry to build out and maintain the infrastructure to do so. Unless I hear about a specific company contracted to do this that didn't just pocket the money, I would assume all that ammo is cold war stockpiles, Russian army surplus, or whatever trickle is produced to maintain former soviet militaries. If there's one thing that the last few years have taught me, it's that there isn't a company on earth that will reserve significant manufacturing or logistics capacity for a rainy day. Global capital trimmed all the fat in the supply pipeline, to the point that everything slams into a wall in a crisis.
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Apr 16, 2022 22:24
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/kyivpride/status/1515291671495385090 Doesnt matter we claim Arestovich for bi culture
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Apr 16, 2022 22:35
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https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1515412773785808897?cxt=HHwWgsC92fD46YcqAAAA Wonder if it actually reaches the recipients lol
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Apr 16, 2022 22:42
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https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1515412789698912266 i am curious if we will get a very obvious "mission accomplished, let us keep the territory we took please" poo poo coming before the 9th. because the Ukrainians won't.
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Apr 16, 2022 22:44
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HolHorsejob posted:Producing eastern-bloc ammo in wartime quantities would require a player in the defense industry to build out and maintain the infrastructure to do so. Unless I hear about a specific company contracted to do this that didn't just pocket the money, I would assume all that ammo is cold war stockpiles, Russian army surplus, or whatever trickle is produced to maintain former soviet militaries. the us did start awarding contracts for these kinds of weapons, but again i have no idea to what degree these contracts were delivered
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Apr 16, 2022 22:48
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Hannibal Rex posted:I'm interrupting your Harpoon chat to ask if the speculation about Harpoons has actually been verified. Last I heard, the official UK statement didn't specify which type of missile they're sending. It hasn't been confirmed to my knowledge, but whatever they're sending it wouldn't have been in place when the Moskva heroically blew itself up.
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Apr 16, 2022 22:51
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Concerned Citizen posted:the us did start awarding contracts for these kinds of weapons, but again i have no idea to what degree these contracts were delivered There was a fun little movie about these contracts
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Apr 16, 2022 22:55
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1515453566546284545?t=N7djcFRUhbtexRQiEadp2Q&s=19 https://twitter.com/D_Liechtenstein/status/1513672410209394698?t=Ohf6h4QvWHxi6cszpYxeOA&s=19
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Apr 16, 2022 23:16
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with a rebel yell she QQd posted:To clarify, people were discussing the idea that people living in Crimea would maybe decide to "rejoin" Ukraine after the war. As being part of a sanctioned post-war Russia might not be such a great prospect. That's why I brought up the people who moved there after 2014, and might not be too keen on the idea. I find the very thought of taking into consideration what people in Crimea think when determining whether it should be handed back to Ukraine alienating and disgusting. As Ukraine, I wouldn't care too much about the precious feelings of occupiers, colonizers and interlopers on my land. In the words of Iggy Pop: "I don't care what these people think, gently caress 'em!". I would simply take it back and since I'm Ukraine and not Russia, I would certainly try to find a solution for every individual case that takes into account their degree of guilt, if any. Wherever possible, I'd offer them a choice between staying or returning to Russia. But I would certainly not run some kind of referendum where these interlopers would vote on whether to keep interloping. It's not okay to annex a parts of another country, run a fake referendum at gunpoint, and then have another referendum a few years down the line among the people who replaced the rightful population in order to retroactively "justify" annexing it.
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Apr 16, 2022 23:31
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