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Yeah but he's such an rear end in a top hat
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Apr 19, 2022 00:25
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FistEnergy posted:pmchem's original sofi post convinced me to sell for a profit instead of holding through massive losses a month later Or I could keep double triple quadrupling down on this overvalued stock and maybe break even in 6-12 months! B T F D!!!!!!!
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Apr 19, 2022 00:36
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idk man I tried to be much nicer in my earlier posts about it and I even asked questions where I had genuine interest, because I like discussing these things and thought that maybe I was missing something. but now it's just turning into ndra 2.0 and I know the thread can be better than that! I'll contribute something. people may have noticed VLO and PSX had huge green days. oil refiners have room to run because the oil market in general is so out of whack; available petro product supplies do not match up with demand. https://twitter.com/Growth_Value_/status/1515406965144526850?s=20&t=Q5omgatvnHh8Mb-J4GrzpA https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1516093061587214339?s=20&t=Q5omgatvnHh8Mb-J4GrzpA producer stocks had their run. unless oil demand craters, now it's the refiners' turn. the world-wide ETF for this is $CRAK https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/oil-refiners-etf-crak/ someone counter-point me with why I shouldn't buy CRAK
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Apr 19, 2022 00:37
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cardinal rule of investing communities: Everyone with a bear case for my ticker is a Shill/Short/rear end in a top hat
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Apr 19, 2022 01:06
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pmchem posted:someone counter-point me with why I shouldn't buy CRAK Expenses are not great and liquidity is poor. I like the thesis but it might be better to just pick some good names if you have the time to research them. I picked up some $DK last week but that one is entirely on someone's recommendation, I'm too much a tourist with refiners still
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Apr 19, 2022 01:27
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pmchem posted:just turning into ndra 2.0 Hey ndra is a great buy! At .25 to sell at .26 or something before it tanks even further. So many gwns said they had costs at like what, 2-2.5 in it? gently caress.
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Apr 19, 2022 06:33
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pmchem posted:idk man I tried to be much nicer in my earlier posts about it and I even asked questions where I had genuine interest, because I like discussing these things and thought that maybe I was missing something. I think you should buy it just so you can talk to your friends about the ridiculous crack spread.
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Apr 19, 2022 10:16
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Sold my COF shares. 136 -> 141 isn't the greatest trade ever but earnings season got me scurred
DeadFatDuckFat fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Apr 19, 2022 |
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Apr 19, 2022 15:59
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Bought another 2100 shares of OpGen (OPGN) yesterday @.66. Nice to see Corecivic (CXW) finally waking up. Mosaic (MOS), Inplay Oil (IPO) & Tamarack Valley (TVE) so far so good....
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Apr 19, 2022 19:50
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pmchem’s post on NDRA convinced me to sell at a profit instead of holding on for what would now be an 86% loss
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Apr 19, 2022 20:21
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TBT is up like 46%YTD and there will likely be more than 2 fed funds rate raises this year. At least 50 bps each time. They might even do a 75 bp increase. This is about as easy a play as you get this year. Long calls.
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Apr 19, 2022 21:25
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$NFLX is the new $GOON. Everyone pile in for what will certainly be nothing but green lines.
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Apr 19, 2022 21:26
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Jesus Netflix making The Bubble was a mistake in multiple ways!
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Apr 19, 2022 21:46
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Bye Netflix.
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Apr 19, 2022 22:06
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Oscar Wild posted:TBT is up like 46%YTD and there will likely be more than 2 fed funds rate raises this year. At least 50 bps each time. They might even do a 75 bp increase. this might work out, but it has... multiple challenges. 1 - the correlation between the fed funds rate and 30-year treasury yields is only ~0.6 over the past 20 years https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=Oo2S 2 - TBT is not only an inverse etf, but a leveraged inverse etf, and will have big volatility drag so choppy markets will kill your calls 3 - short-duration treasuries (which are MORE correlated to anticipated fed fund rate changes) are already stabilizing a bit... why wouldn't the long-end be next? 4 - if the war takes an ugly turn and stocks poo poo the bed, treasuries are still a possible flight to safety 5 - there are better alternatives for the same bear rates outlook. puts on TLT, shares of PFIX, shares of TBF, shorting /ZB futures or puts on /ZB, etc.
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Apr 19, 2022 22:32
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anyway here's some NFLX content because lol https://twitter.com/SouthernValue95/status/1516524966736445454?s=20&t=Lwo82mbTysWPyPN_0scNRA
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Apr 19, 2022 22:48
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Who was it that always posted kicking himself that he forgot to buy nflx calls before earnings?
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Apr 19, 2022 23:01
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pmchem posted:anyway here's some NFLX content because lol This is a pretty dumb take. If Netflix ran ads, they would just lose me as a customer, and I'd imagine I wouldn't be the only one. This feel a lot like the same arguments I see in games about 'engagement', and 'Daily Active Users' and that garbage. Definitely add features and options for your customers, but don't degrade the experience across the board as you search for revenue or 'engagement' or whatever it is you are doing. That's the path to short term gains and a slow, unstoppable death.
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Apr 19, 2022 23:02
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Netflix spends a ton of money on poo poo content, which explains a lot. I honestly felt they were onto something with international productions that can be cheaper and have a big cultural impact (casa de papel, squid game) but I guess it doesn't feed the machine as much as it needs to.
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Apr 19, 2022 23:08
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orange sky posted:Netflix spends a ton of money on poo poo content, which explains a lot. I honestly felt they were onto something with international productions that can be cheaper and have a big cultural impact (casa de papel, squid game) but I guess it doesn't feed the machine as much as it needs to. Not only poo poo content but churning series and cancelling them on cliffhangers. poo poo is awful
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Apr 19, 2022 23:17
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pmchem posted:this might work out, but it has... multiple challenges. I'm not saying it's free money but highly more likely to increase over the next 12 months I reckon. TBT is based on the 20 year and not 30 but I agree with you generally. The fund is a leverage inverse of daily returns so there is risk there. This is a cheap way for a small retail investor to get profits in a rising rate environment. If the war gets worse we are all hosed and should have just gone into commodities like your oil play. This thread doesnt do much with fixed income and i know why but this fund is kinda in this threads wheelhouse. The options don't have insane bid ask spreads either.
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Apr 19, 2022 23:19
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yeah I like your idea more than a lot of others here and have been bear rates myself since end of 2020. but I might approach it differently, or this late in the rates cycle, just wait it out. anyway twitter is on fire with NFLX reactions https://twitter.com/ecommerceshares/status/1484306085653598212 https://twitter.com/YellowLabLife/status/1516543947019112458
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Apr 19, 2022 23:32
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Feel like buying a leveraged inverse ETF which is up 50% in 3 months is not likely to be a profitable decision. Plus there isnt a bond bull to be found anywhere right now. If the play is that short term rates will continue to rise (which is consensus) then maybe better expressed via floating rate bonds or just holding cash.
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Apr 19, 2022 23:56
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Way to sell those nflx puts before close, didn’t want new car money or anything.
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Apr 20, 2022 01:38
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Woodchip posted:Way to sell those nflx puts before close, didn’t want new car money or anything. Ouch
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Apr 20, 2022 01:49
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back to the old ways 
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Apr 20, 2022 01:59
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Baddog posted:Who was it that always posted kicking himself that he forgot to buy nflx calls before earnings? Josh Lyman posted:
Josh Lyman posted:I forgot. Again. This is a running joke between my friend and me that I always forget to trade NFLX earnings. I remembered today around 12:30pm but was looking at running shoes on Gilt. Josh Lyman posted:I forgot to buy a volatility spread on NFLX again! loving hell. Josh Lyman posted:gently caress, I should have put on a volatility spread. Now that NFLX is no longer a sure thing (crazy post earnings movement), I don't have volatility plays on my mind. Josh Lyman posted:
Josh Lyman posted:
Josh Lyman posted:Hey, guess who forgot to buy NFLX options AGAIN? Josh Lyman posted:God drat it, I forgot to NFLX options AGAIN!!! Josh Lyman posted:Guess who forgot to buy NFLX options ahead of earnings again? Josh Lyman posted:As usual, I forgot to get into NFLX before earnings. This time it's especially egregious because I was chatting with a friend about a good entry point for NFLX on June 30. Josh Lyman posted:Guess who had a meme about forgetting to buy NFLX options ahead of earnings, then owned NFLX underlying for a while but forgot he doesn't currently own it, and despite wanting to get back into options trading forgot to buy options again ahead of earnings?
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Apr 20, 2022 03:16
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Canine Blues Arooo posted:This is a pretty dumb take. If Netflix ran ads, they would just lose me as a customer, and I'd imagine I wouldn't be the only one. They would just have a cheaper ad-supported tier, like several other streaming services already have. Doing that and cracking down on account sharing, currently estimated to be 100 million households, will set the ship right again.
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Apr 20, 2022 03:46
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thehacker0 posted:Feel like buying a leveraged inverse ETF which is up 50% in 3 months is not likely to be a profitable decision. Plus there isnt a bond bull to be found anywhere right now. I'm confused by this. It's the daily inverse of the price of the 20 year treasury. Its a bond bear play unless you mean yield bull. As I posted we will probably see the fed raise rates by between 1-1.25% at a minimum this year. Rates go up and the price is going to fall. Youre right that the 46% was easy, with anticipated fed movements I figure it can still run. I chose the longer end because as you know the price is more sensitive on the longer end of the yield curve. As for holding cash, um inflation? Why do you think the fed is rising rates?
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Apr 20, 2022 03:47
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Oscar Wild posted:I'm confused by this. It's the daily inverse of the price of the 20 year treasury. I'm about to sleep but I wanted to comment on this because you've said it twice now and it's a relevant technical point for anyone trying to follow bond prices. It is NOT "the daily inverse of the price of the 20 year treasury". Its homepage states: https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/leveraged-and-inverse/tbt "ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index." That index, "ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Index", is used for TLT, basically the most popular bond ETF in the world for traders. It's meant to be a leveraged inverse of TLT, https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf the weighted average maturity of TLT (avail on its homepage) is 26 years. there are a whole lot of 30-year treasuries in TLT
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Apr 20, 2022 04:00
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MOS is my big winner of the year, up like over 40% in the last few months. They mine fertilizer precursors like potash and phosphate. I'm glad I bought stocks but I wish I put a little into calls too.
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Apr 20, 2022 04:06
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Oscar Wild posted:I'm confused by this. It's the daily inverse of the price of the 20 year treasury. Its a bond bear play unless you mean yield bull. As I posted we will probably see the fed raise rates by between 1-1.25% at a minimum this year. Rates go up and the price is going to fall. Youre right that the 46% was easy, with anticipated fed movements I figure it can still run. I chose the longer end because as you know the price is more sensitive on the longer end of the yield curve. It’s a bearish bond play, no doubt. I was remarking on the fact that the trade is very crowded - no bulls in sight. Longer duration is more sensitive to rates. But long rates are not necessarily correlated with short rates, as another post mentioned. What the fed does over the next 2-3 years is only a small piece of the puzzle for a 20-30 year bond. For example, the fed raising rates now to fight inflation could very well lead to lower rates down the line as inflation comes down. Often times during big rate hike cycles, long rates actually fall. When short terms rates rise significantly, cash is usually among the best, if not the best performing asset. After all, rates are the return you can get on cash. Not to mention that the price of other assets are pressured.
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Apr 20, 2022 04:11
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pmchem posted:it was way simpler to handle capital gains on uvxy options and futures than I thought it would be. basically just entering a few numbers into a different section of turbotax. Completely forgot state tax when calculating my withholdings to hold on to when selling for profit. Ouch, my wallet.
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Apr 20, 2022 10:35
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I’m confused, is $GOON not going to make me rich, now?
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Apr 20, 2022 11:26
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strange feelings re Daisy posted:MOS is my big winner of the year, up like over 40% in the last few months. They mine fertilizer precursors like potash and phosphate. I'm glad I bought stocks but I wish I put a little into calls too. it's been on such a crazy run! I mentioned MOS and X as possible "supercycle" winners in this thread on Jan. 1. I made money on X but didn't do MOS. Should've done both as soon as the war was inevitable.
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Apr 20, 2022 12:12
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RCarr posted:I’m confused, is $GOON not going to make me rich, now? Depends. If you bought at $2, no. If you bought under $0.50, also no, but 
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Apr 20, 2022 12:18
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How long do they have to trade under a dollar before they have to do a reverse split to avoid being delisted? I guess they crossed below $1 middle of November
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Apr 20, 2022 12:28
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Hadlock posted:How long do they have to trade under a dollar before they have to do a reverse split to avoid being delisted? I guess they crossed below $1 middle of November I think they're up in July with an option to appeal for 6 months. Not sure of the exact dates but reverse split is coming soon
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Apr 20, 2022 16:23
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r/DWAC_Stock is basically AMC bagholding tinfoil meets QAnon. And now the short report is out. Reaction so far is predictable. https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Digital-World-Acquisition-Corp-DWAC.pdf
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Apr 20, 2022 16:28
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fougera posted:r/DWAC_Stock is basically AMC bagholding tinfoil meets QAnon. And now the short report is out. Reaction so far is predictable. I used to hate stock specific subs and cults because the true believers derail everything to try to get you to buy in, but right now between GME, AMC, DWAC and AMD (sorry for lumping you in there with the cults but also lol) it has been a good couple of days of fun
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Apr 20, 2022 16:43
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