Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

OddObserver posted:

Alexander II is a perfect example of Russian liberalism: did more for regular people than any leader of Russia before and after... and banned publication of books and public performances in Ukrainian and IIRC Belarusian.

Well hey, when you have a limited pool to choose from go for the one that has least poo poo on his legacy.

EDIT: Why am I always in the page snipe position when I am posting not-content?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Henrik Zetterberg posted:

So what's Scholtz' deal? Is he just a colossal boob that refuses to help beyond the bare minimum? Or is he just afraid of their gas being shut off by Russia?
At this point, nobody knows. Public sentiment and the other coalition parties are in favor of helping Ukraine a lot more. He has thus far not been willing to publically really clearly explain why he is being so unwilling to follow up on his decalaration at the start of the war that a turning point in politics with regards to Russia had come.

Pressure is rapidly escalating fir him to do something, allow others to do something and explain his thinking and handling of things. It is not yet threatening his downfall, but it is starting to become possible that it might start to go into that direction (and yes that is deliberately that vague).

Everybody is very perplexed by his handling of everything after his speech in the Bundestag where he had declared that turning point with regards to Russia.

Pope Hilarius II
Nov 10, 2008

Sorry in advance for a pretty long post with responses to things a few pages back, but I can't read SA at work and I have to catch up in the evening. That being said, thanks everyone - this has been a hugely enlightening and informing thread for me so far.

KitConstantine posted:

This article goes into why Russia isn't likely to be having any populist uprisings any time soon. I included the reply as it's screenshots hit the major points, but the article isn't long and is worth the time
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1516798597064441862?s=20&t=YJeoEQ-6Gp1ZA0SPw1crPw
Article: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/20/the-four-russias-and-ukraine-a77423

It's a bit of a melodramatic article, but between 2019 and early 2022, I worked for a company with a very large subsidiary in Russia and I was my teams "Russia contact" because I once studied the language in evening school and have a few Russian acquaintances. Most of the employees in our subsidiary fell/fall into the category of the "IKEA Russians" and I still follow some of them on Instagram. Some of them expressed solidarity with the Belarusian protests back in 2020/1, but most of them said nothing at all and continue to post regular IG stuff you'd expect, like visits to pretty places, hip eateries, walking their dogs and so on.

Djarum posted:

No, not one bit. China has been trying to modernize for 30 years now and the issue is that they just can't manufacture basic things to the level that they require.

For full clarification: I was the ghostwriter for a Belgian businessman who is also a sinologist and wrote a book about business in and with China. But from what I know, I would say it'd be dead wrong to underestimate China to work itself up from an almost comically inept situation. They have a number of genuine and astounding successes under their belt, such as lifting millions of people out of poverty, creating an HS rail network almost out of thin air as well as a manned space programme. All three of these things require a dose of luck, sure, but they also require competence.

It's true that China's modern military capabilities are untested and could well be a paper tiger, and its industries and governments still make easily avoidable blunders (e.g. their less than effective coronavirus vaccine), but underestimating their potential to rapidly come out of such situation is not a good idea. Things may change for the worse as Xi's regime further consolidates and becomes more isolationist and nationalist (the signs for which are obvious), but modern-day Chinese people are on the whole still optimistic, better-educated and more well-off than their parents and grandparents (which the CCP derives its legitimacy from), which puts them in a completely different ballpark from their Russian peers. E.g. well-educated Russians are leaving and have been leaving Russia in droves. Foreign-educated Chinese citizens no longer see the West as a destination, but a waypoint.

SmokingFrog0641 posted:

Also, just to clarify on LePen, leading into the first election I saw articles about her saying she had changed her positions on NATO but afterwards, I feel like I saw articles about how she still wished to remove France from certain command positions within NATO, which I think may have been done in a limited scale before by France. She seems to have tried to shed some of the old policies of her father and distance some from her closeness to Putin; however, she still seems to be a threat to a more unified Europe. To what degree, I’m not as sure at the moment.

It's all a sham. While Marine Le Pen is probably no genuine neo-nazi the way her father was, her very recent about-face is just for show. She's still a fascist who sympathises with Putin.

mobby_6kl posted:

^^^
Correction, Southern Netherlands

Would be a shame if something happened to it

:eng101: The Netherlands are to the west of Germany. The term 'Southern Netherlands' used to be used for Belgium, though.

--

Also, for the more expert-level people in the thread, I have a few questions that have been bugging me:

- Why is the Ukrainian Air Force still operational? Isn't it trivially easy to bomb airfields and airports so that planes no longer have take-off and landing strips? Isn't that something you would do as the first thing of order in a country-wide invasion?
- Why doesn't the Russian army bomb supply convoys coming into Ukraine? Sure, it's bad PR if a line of Polish, Slovak or Austrian trucks gets bombed and demolished, but what are these countries going to do - declare war on Russia?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://twitter.com/davekeating/status/1516851342534455296

tl;dr Macron did rather convincingly debatelord her, much like the previous time. Probably good news for Ukraine.

Der Kyhe posted:

Well hey, when you have a limited pool to choose from go for the one that has least poo poo on his legacy.

EDIT: Why am I always in the page snipe position when I am posting not-content?

Could it be that your name is Chris Kyhe:v:?

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

OzyMandrill posted:

My father was in the artillery. I'll never forget what he used to always say.
'Pardon?' You'll have to speak up a bit'.

I had a good friend who was an artillery forward observer, who always would say that he was spotting for the guys who pull the string, make the boom, which sounds cool, but those guys leave the Army with about 10 years before they needed hearing aids.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

mobby_6kl posted:

France we know has been supplying russia happily before the war and now need to keep their russian asset out. Greece I assume needs their toys to keep Turkey at bay. Portugal I don't even know what they have. Man o' wars? Men o' war?

As a Portuguese Canadian I expect my homeland to donate some Avro Arrows, and my motherland to donate Man o' War jellyfish, clearly for the Arrow to rain down upon unsuspecting Russians.

But seriously if I was German I would be right pissed about a leader fence sitting when obvious war crimes are running rampant in Europe. The time for careful measures is long gone. Canada barely has a military and we still found a way to scrounge up some big guns to send to Ukraine.

DekeThornton
Sep 2, 2011

Be friends!

Pope Hilarius II posted:


Also, for the more expert-level people in the thread, I have a few questions that have been bugging me:

- Why is the Ukrainian Air Force still operational? Isn't it trivially easy to bomb airfields and airports so that planes no longer have take-off and landing strips? Isn't that something you would do as the first thing of order in a country-wide invasion?
- Why doesn't the Russian army bomb supply convoys coming into Ukraine? Sure, it's bad PR if a line of Polish, Slovak or Austrian trucks gets bombed and demolished, but what are these countries going to do - declare war on Russia?

On the first question, bombing airfields doesn't do that much. Landing strips are fairly quick to repair. Ukraine also seems to fly out of dispersed airfields and road bases, a lot like we in Sweden planned to do.

Regharding the second, Russia probably don't have the capacity to hit targets in western Ukraine without hgaving ttheir planes shot down. Ukraine has pretty decent air defences still going strong.

DekeThornton fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Apr 20, 2022

Asteroid Alert
Oct 24, 2012

BINGO!
He's so dreamy



(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Pope Hilarius II posted:

Also, for the more expert-level people in the thread, I have a few questions that have been bugging me:

- Why is the Ukrainian Air Force still operational? Isn't it trivially easy to bomb airfields and airports so that planes no longer have take-off and landing strips? Isn't that something you would do as the first thing of order in a country-wide invasion?
- Why doesn't the Russian army bomb supply convoys coming into Ukraine? Sure, it's bad PR if a line of Polish, Slovak or Austrian trucks gets bombed and demolished, but what are these countries going to do - declare war on Russia?

I'm not expert-level, but Ukraine has a lot of really good AA defenses. They don't need to use their own air force in direct interdiction - Russians are afraid to enter Ukrainian airspace and prefer to shoot missiles from afar.

Thus convoys coming into Ukraine are relatively safe, as there is no direct Russian air threat. They can throw some cruise missiles against fixed targets, but anything moving is going to be hard to hit.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Pope Hilarius II posted:

Also, for the more expert-level people in the thread, I have a few questions that have been bugging me:

- Why is the Ukrainian Air Force still operational? Isn't it trivially easy to bomb airfields and airports so that planes no longer have take-off and landing strips? Isn't that something you would do as the first thing of order in a country-wide invasion?
- Why doesn't the Russian army bomb supply convoys coming into Ukraine? Sure, it's bad PR if a line of Polish, Slovak or Austrian trucks gets bombed and demolished, but what are these countries going to do - declare war on Russia?

1) They did that, but Ukrainians hid a lot of poo poo, and airfields apparently are not that difficult to repair - runways especially. It’s a very high effort game of hide and seek where Russians need to figure out where the poo poo is and successfully hit it (Ukraine has air defence systems, which survive due to similar tactics) before CIA tells Ukrainians to move their stuff elsewhere.

2) Inside Ukraine, they will not declare war in response to such hits. Which more than likely have happened anyways - Ukrainian government doesn’t have any motivations to publicise that.

What they can do though is sign up for more sanctions, so Russia can still gently caress around and find out with the convoys.

Outside Ukraine yeah, EU and US would just have a joint “peacekeeping mission” declaration and start carpet bombing Russian soldiers in Ukraine. That would be best outcome Russia could get out of that scenario.

DekeThornton posted:

Regharding the second, Russia probably don't have the capacity to hit targets in western Ukraine without hgaving ttheir planes shot down. Ukraine has pretty decent air defences still going strong.

They have hit a ton of targets with cruise missiles there.

Kallikaa
Jun 13, 2001

Doccers posted:

So are these dumb shells common fuzed, or VT fuzed these days? I imagine VT fuzes are absolutely trivial to make now but does require SOME electronics industry,

Apparently not though it seem to boil down to the Government saying 'use these things, we know they work and the semiconductor business going 'we'll make more money making other things for the automotive and cellphone industries'


Electronic Parts Manufacturing Industry Trends Impact on Conventional Ammunition Fuzes

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1096982.pdf

"The main conclusion reached is that the existing semiconductor market conditions have resulted
in an impractical availability of passive electronic components to support the production of fuzes
for conventional mortar and artillery ammunition. Increase in global competition for
semiconductors resulted in exorbitant long-leads of passive electronic components."

"Moreover, the passive electronic components “Case
Size” specificity prescribed in the conventional mortar and artillery fuze Technical Data Package
(TDP) further reduces the probability to entice attention from the semiconductor industry."

Dick Trauma
Nov 30, 2007

God damn it, you've got to be kind.

ZombieLenin posted:

I had a good friend who was an artillery forward observer, who always would say that he was spotting for the guys who pull the string, make the boom, which sounds cool, but those guys leave the Army with about 10 years before they needed hearing aids.

My dad was a tank commander in the reserves and became stone frickin deaf. Makes me wonder how the volume level of his Sherman tank turret would compare with an M1.

Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God

Pope Hilarius II posted:

- Why is the Ukrainian Air Force still operational? Isn't it trivially easy to bomb airfields and airports so that planes no longer have take-off and landing strips? Isn't that something you would do as the first thing of order in a country-wide invasion?
- Why doesn't the Russian army bomb supply convoys coming into Ukraine? Sure, it's bad PR if a line of Polish, Slovak or Austrian trucks gets bombed and demolished, but what are these countries going to do - declare war on Russia?

For #1, as people have mentioned Ukraine has a fair bit of AA, including some longer ranged missile launchers than the man portable stuff. Russia can (sometimes) get away with bombing forces near the front lines, but flying long distances over Ukrainian territory would be asking to be shot down, and that includes most of the airports. Russia has repeatedly targeted air bases with long range missiles and probably took out some planes, but airbases tend to be pretty big and it's a lot easier for Ukraine to fill in holes on the runways than it is for Russia to build more missiles.

#2, as above Russia is mostly limited to cruise missiles in western Ukraine, which they don't have an unlimited number of and aren't ideal for going after moving vehicles. They have made attempts to go after staging points for those supplies, but I doubt Ukraine is exactly putting up giant signs that say "Arms shipments go here." And if Russia were to target those supplies while they were still in Poland that would absolutely cause Poland to declare war, which Russia can't afford.

MikeC
Jul 19, 2004
BITCH ASS NARC

Pope Hilarius II posted:

- Why doesn't the Russian army bomb supply convoys coming into Ukraine? Sure, it's bad PR if a line of Polish, Slovak or Austrian trucks gets bombed and demolished, but what are these countries going to do - declare war on Russia?

If you are suggesting a possible course of action would be for the Russians to hit supply convoys before entering Ukraine, that is simply a no go due to the fact that supplies run through NATO countries. Launching actual attacks on vehicles or logistics hubs inside NATO countries actively invites direct NATO participation in the conflict, and Russia would lose such a conflict with certainty unless it chose to employ nuclear or chemical weapons. Just as NATO countries supporting Ukraine take painstaking steps to ensure their support is of a limited nature and take every precaution to ensure what they are doing will not trigger Russian escalation, the Russians must also do the same because no one actually wants to go down the dark and unpredictable path of direct confrontation where one side will have to essentially blink or risk the cycle of escalation spiraling out of control.

It's sort of like 2 males fighting over mating rights in the animal kingdom. Both sides want the prize, but are also very cognizant that going full tilt will result in one or both of them being dead.

Coquito Ergo Sum
Feb 9, 2021

Dick Trauma posted:

My dad was a tank commander in the reserves and became stone frickin deaf. Makes me wonder how the volume level of his Sherman tank turret would compare with an M1.

Damagingly loud, but probably one of the quieter tanks of its time.

DekeThornton
Sep 2, 2011

Be friends!

cinci zoo sniper posted:

1) They did that, but Ukrainians hid a lot of poo poo, and airfields apparently are not that difficult to repair - runways especially. It’s a very high effort game of hide and seek where Russians need to figure out where the poo poo is and successfully hit it (Ukraine has air defence systems, which survive due to similar tactics) before CIA tells Ukrainians to move their stuff elsewhere.

2) Inside Ukraine, they will not declare war in response to such hits. Which more than likely have happened anyways - Ukrainian government doesn’t have any motivations to publicise that.

What they can do though is sign up for more sanctions, so Russia can still gently caress around and find out with the convoys.

Outside Ukraine yeah, EU and US would just have a joint “peacekeeping mission” declaration and start carpet bombing Russian soldiers in Ukraine. That would be best outcome Russia could get out of that scenario.

They have hit a ton of targets with cruise missiles there.

Sure, but only fixed targets, like airfields and bases. I doubt they can use those cruise missiles to effectively hit vehicle transports.

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Pope Hilarius II posted:

Sorry in advance for a pretty long post with responses to things a few pages back, but I can't read SA at work and I have to catch up in the evening. That being said, thanks everyone - this has been a hugely enlightening and informing thread for me so far.

It's a bit of a melodramatic article, but between 2019 and early 2022, I worked for a company with a very large subsidiary in Russia and I was my teams "Russia contact" because I once studied the language in evening school and have a few Russian acquaintances. Most of the employees in our subsidiary fell/fall into the category of the "IKEA Russians" and I still follow some of them on Instagram. Some of them expressed solidarity with the Belarusian protests back in 2020/1, but most of them said nothing at all and continue to post regular IG stuff you'd expect, like visits to pretty places, hip eateries, walking their dogs and so on.

For full clarification: I was the ghostwriter for a Belgian businessman who is also a sinologist and wrote a book about business in and with China. But from what I know, I would say it'd be dead wrong to underestimate China to work itself up from an almost comically inept situation. They have a number of genuine and astounding successes under their belt, such as lifting millions of people out of poverty, creating an HS rail network almost out of thin air as well as a manned space programme. All three of these things require a dose of luck, sure, but they also require competence.

It's true that China's modern military capabilities are untested and could well be a paper tiger, and its industries and governments still make easily avoidable blunders (e.g. their less than effective coronavirus vaccine), but underestimating their potential to rapidly come out of such situation is not a good idea. Things may change for the worse as Xi's regime further consolidates and becomes more isolationist and nationalist (the signs for which are obvious), but modern-day Chinese people are on the whole still optimistic, better-educated and more well-off than their parents and grandparents (which the CCP derives its legitimacy from), which puts them in a completely different ballpark from their Russian peers. E.g. well-educated Russians are leaving and have been leaving Russia in droves. Foreign-educated Chinese citizens no longer see the West as a destination, but a waypoint.

It's all a sham. While Marine Le Pen is probably no genuine neo-nazi the way her father was, her very recent about-face is just for show. She's still a fascist who sympathises with Putin.

:eng101: The Netherlands are to the west of Germany. The term 'Southern Netherlands' used to be used for Belgium, though.

--

Also, for the more expert-level people in the thread, I have a few questions that have been bugging me:

- Why is the Ukrainian Air Force still operational? Isn't it trivially easy to bomb airfields and airports so that planes no longer have take-off and landing strips? Isn't that something you would do as the first thing of order in a country-wide invasion?
- Why doesn't the Russian army bomb supply convoys coming into Ukraine? Sure, it's bad PR if a line of Polish, Slovak or Austrian trucks gets bombed and demolished, but what are these countries going to do - declare war on Russia?

If people are working with multinationals and posting western-style instagrams I'm not sure they're the middle class he's talking about. My (wife's) family in Central Siberia live like poo poo compared to even being barely solvent in the US. Soldiers are cheerfully sending ukrainian war loot home there. Nobody is happy. Everyone wants out. There's no fancy eateries and scenic dog walks. Almost nobody speaks anything but russian, and almost everyone is pathologicaly xenophobic.

Very much the kind of people who would think Nutella is an amazing luxury.

Edgar Allen Ho fucked around with this message at 23:57 on Apr 20, 2022

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.
Wrong thread

Freezer fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Apr 21, 2022

sebmojo
Oct 23, 2010


Legit Cyberpunk









cinci zoo sniper posted:

I wonder if Strelkov did partake in irony of comparing Russian offensive to Operation Citadel.

"chewing Minsk snivel" is an S-Tier phrase, goddammm

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Pope Hilarius II posted:

For full clarification: I was the ghostwriter for a Belgian businessman who is also a sinologist and wrote a book about business in and with China. But from what I know, I would say it'd be dead wrong to underestimate China to work itself up from an almost comically inept situation. They have a number of genuine and astounding successes under their belt, such as lifting millions of people out of poverty, creating an HS rail network almost out of thin air as well as a manned space programme. All three of these things require a dose of luck, sure, but they also require competence.

It's true that China's modern military capabilities are untested and could well be a paper tiger, and its industries and governments still make easily avoidable blunders (e.g. their less than effective coronavirus vaccine), but underestimating their potential to rapidly come out of such situation is not a good idea. Things may change for the worse as Xi's regime further consolidates and becomes more isolationist and nationalist (the signs for which are obvious), but modern-day Chinese people are on the whole still optimistic, better-educated and more well-off than their parents and grandparents (which the CCP derives its legitimacy from), which puts them in a completely different ballpark from their Russian peers. E.g. well-educated Russians are leaving and have been leaving Russia in droves. Foreign-educated Chinese citizens no longer see the West as a destination, but a waypoint.

China is competent in things, that isn't the issue. The issue is that despite years of effort that can not manufacture key parts of much of their industry. Someone has pointed out in the thread previously that until fairly recently they couldn't manufacture ball point pens in China. They could assemble them but they lacked the capabilities to manufacture the precise balls for the pens. They had been working on that since the 1960s. Much of their military is utterly reliant upon outside resources to make critical components. With Russia likely unable to produce much of what they will need going forward it will put them at even more of a disadvantage. It doesn't matter if you are able to use stolen plans to make a stealth airframe if you can't make an engine that can work and be reliable. Doesn't matter if you have designs for missiles if you can make reliable guidance and fuel systems. It is like this up and down all of China's military.

Just about anyone with basic knowledge can assemble something if they have plans and the parts. It takes a whole other level of expertise and knowledge to be able to make stuff from scratch. This is China's big problem, they don't have the fundamental basics in place and keeps trying to skip ahead.

MassiveSky
Apr 5, 2022

by Hand Knit

MikeC posted:

Launching actual attacks on vehicles or logistics hubs inside NATO countries actively invites direct NATO participation in the conflict, and Russia would lose such a conflict with certainty unless it chose to employ nuclear or chemical weapons.

In which case everyone would lose, but Russia would lose worse.

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

Recall that the Siege of Leningrad lasted 800+ days in which the local population was driven to unspeakable conditions before the city was relieved. Most of WW2 even when the Soviets were pushing back the Germans had Leningrad besieged. Mariupol is just a faster moving version of such a siege and can probably last a longer time than we think.

On a side note the chieftain just released a really informative piece about how the prognostications about the death of the tank as a weapon of war are premature.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI7T650RTT8

Djarum posted:

Just about anyone with basic knowledge can assemble something if they have plans and the parts. It takes a whole other level of expertise and knowledge to be able to make stuff from scratch. This is China's big problem, they don't have the fundamental basics in place and keeps trying to skip ahead.

I can tell when it comes to matters of military intelligence you probably know your poo poo, probably a lot more than you can legally tell us so I believe you when you say this.

But I still don't think we should take the threat of China lightly. They're a geopolitical enemy to any non-authoritarian order and use predominantly non-violent means to subvert democracies around the world until violent means become more practical when necessary. Even if they can't do the things they need to do to become an advanced economy, they are still educating themselves and relentlessly working at fixing these problems. China is a patient country and they don't view things in 4-5 year time frame or even decades, they're playing a long game and biding their time while we're out here loving ourselves over feeding them cash and technology. They'll figure it out eventually and we will need to be ready if we aren't imploding the way the Romans did before the dark ages.

Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Apr 21, 2022

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
:nws: af, car with bullet holes and blood everywhere

Pro-Russian blogger in Kherson finds out. As it turns out the locals do not appreciate collaborators

https://focus.ua/ukraine/512857-v-hersone-rasstrelyali-blogera-kotorogo-podozrevayut-v-svyazyah-s-okkupantami-video

MassiveSky
Apr 5, 2022

by Hand Knit

Risky Bisquick posted:

Pro-Russian blogger in Kherson finds out. As it turns out the locals do not appreciate collaborators

Looks like suicide.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Risky Bisquick posted:

:nws: af, car with bullet holes and blood everywhere

Pro-Russian blogger in Kherson finds out. As it turns out the locals do not appreciate collaborators

https://focus.ua/ukraine/512857-v-hersone-rasstrelyali-blogera-kotorogo-podozrevayut-v-svyazyah-s-okkupantami-video

They should check their water pipes. There's a lot of lead poisoning going around.

catfry
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth

Pope Hilarius II posted:


- Why doesn't the Russian army bomb supply convoys coming into Ukraine? Sure, it's bad PR if a line of Polish, Slovak or Austrian trucks gets bombed and demolished, but what are these countries going to do - declare war on Russia?

There are 14 manned border crossings between EU countries and Ukraine, (excluding Hungary which has forbidden transit of weapons).
That does not include unmanned crossings, small rural or forest roads, blocked at the border with chainlink fences or barriers that might be unblocked in situations where the two border forces agree to it.
There are thousands of vehicles using the manned crossings every day. If Russia were to try to bomb them they would have to use long range precision missiles, since that's all they have that can reach western Ukraine, and they would have to either:
- know which vehicles to bomb or
- They would have to go hog wild on them all, civilians as well, no reason to think supplies arrive in easily recognizable military trucks. This is not realistic, if nothing else they are simply physically limited. the most missiles fired into ukraine in a single day has been something like 70 to 100, they simply do not have enough launch platforms or logistical abilities.

I'd imagine the first point is made as difficult as possible by the donors, by all sorts of tricks and subterfuge. The supplies arrive at some airport, ok that's easy to figure out, but it's really difficult to keep taps on where all the vehicles that exit that airport go, and I imagine the donors engage in various types of subterfuge with these.

I don't really know how they hide easily recognizable vehicles like low rider trailers with heavy artillery though. I guess spread them out, not in big convoys, crossing at night at unmanned crossings, that sort of thing?

Saoshyant
Oct 26, 2010

:hmmorks: :orks:


Has this been posted yet? I checked six pages back and didn't see it and thought we needed a laugh, so:

https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1516087197920813061

Styrofoam airplanes!

Check it on G Maps



vvvv Oh, that's less hilarious, but still a sign that they can barely keep their airforce running, which is a good thing.

Saoshyant fucked around with this message at 00:19 on Apr 21, 2022

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

Saoshyant posted:

Has this been posted yet? I checked six pages back and didn't see it and thought we needed a laugh, so:

https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1516087197920813061

Styrofoam airplanes!

Check it on G Maps

They're breaking them up for parts to keep other planes running. It's pretty common when most of the infrastructure that produces these planes does not have a reliable way to spool up and make spares.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Saoshyant posted:

Has this been posted yet? I checked six pages back and didn't see it and thought we needed a laugh, so:

https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1516087197920813061

Styrofoam airplanes!

Check it on G Maps

Yeah, several times. Google actually has never blocked any Russian military bases, they've always been just as visible. Somebody just looked and assumed.

The planes are likely that way due to treaty requirements. Inoperative planes have to be disassembled and left out in the open for a while to make sure everybody knows.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




sebmojo posted:

"chewing Minsk snivel" is an S-Tier phrase, goddammm

That guy is really angry about Russia opting for rules lawyering Ukraine into Minsk agreements, instead of just rolling tanks over every inch of border back in 2014-2016, exactly like we saw this February. Being a prominent warlord in LDNR, he tried rocking the boat in several ways for that to happen, which ended up getting him exiled from the proxies he essentially founded, by Russian security services. Ever since then, he’s in this weird limbo where it’s a bad look to kill him, and so his weird monarchist rear end gets away with mauling Putin et. al. on VK (Russian Facebook) for being too soft on Ukraine and leaving his LDNR pals out in the cold. Those few of them that survived the first war against Ukrainian government, and the subsequent Russian purges, anyways.

But yeah, the phrase is a classic one in Russian language - “to chew snot” is equivalent of “to dilly-dally” in normal English.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

Kraftwerk posted:

China is a patient country and they don't view things in 4-5 year time frame or even decades, they're playing a long game and biding their time

People used to claim the same thing about the Japanese approach to business as an example of wise far-sightedness, some of them producing business plans for the next hundred years or so. That was before the crash.

Turns out playing generational 5D chess is bloody silly when random-rear end events can come up out of nowhere to upset the apple cart in ways you never could have foreseen producing consequences you couldn't have planned for. Such as, say, a massive international pandemic and a major ally starting a major war and falling flat on its face in a way that draws together your enemies like never before.

(Also personally I question how far-sighted China actually is vs how much they're desperately scrambling at any given time to keep on top of the latest potential domestic unrest crisis.)

Not to say that China isn't worth keeping an eye on but I feel like Putin has at least made clear that from the outside it's hard to tell the difference between "wise master playing the long game" vs "I have barely any idea what I'm doing" until you actually fall flat on your face. Especially if you as the state benefit from creating the public perception that you are in fact the wise grandmaster strategist.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
PLA hasnt won a war outside the musket weilding tibetians. They keep losing badly with border skimishes to the Indians. They have more money than russia but probably more corruption. China as a destination? Yeah if you want to get welded into your apartment and starve to death because someone in the neighborhood got covid

Despera fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Apr 21, 2022

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!


Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Deteriorata posted:

Yeah, several times. Google actually has never blocked any Russian military bases, they've always been just as visible. Somebody just looked and assumed.

The planes are likely that way due to treaty requirements. Inoperative planes have to be disassembled and left out in the open for a while to make sure everybody knows.

Uh, what? What treaty or treaties are you referring to, and who has signed them? START I explicitly covered strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons, but there's no general treaty that I'm aware of for other military aircraft.

Plastic_Gargoyle
Aug 3, 2007

Despera posted:

PLA hasnt won a war outside the musket weilding tibetians. They keep losing badly with border skimishes to the Indians. They have more money than russia but probably more corruption. China as a destination? Yeah if you want to get welded into your apartment and starve to death because someone in the neighborhood got covid

I'm not sure it's actually possible to top the levels of corruption induced corrosion we've been seeing from the RF military thus far.

Silver2195
Apr 4, 2012

Tomn posted:

People used to claim the same thing about the Japanese approach to business as an example of wise far-sightedness, some of them producing business plans for the next hundred years or so. That was before the crash.

Turns out playing generational 5D chess is bloody silly when random-rear end events can come up out of nowhere to upset the apple cart in ways you never could have foreseen producing consequences you couldn't have planned for. Such as, say, a massive international pandemic and a major ally starting a major war and falling flat on its face in a way that draws together your enemies like never before.

(Also personally I question how far-sighted China actually is vs how much they're desperately scrambling at any given time to keep on top of the latest potential domestic unrest crisis.)

Not to say that China isn't worth keeping an eye on but I feel like Putin has at least made clear that from the outside it's hard to tell the difference between "wise master playing the long game" vs "I have barely any idea what I'm doing" until you actually fall flat on your face. Especially if you as the state benefit from creating the public perception that you are in fact the wise grandmaster strategist.

I was about to say pretty much this, but you said it better. Arglebargle III also said it pretty well:

Arglebargle III posted:

China's ability to play the long game diplomatically is mostly a myth. Partly it's born of orientalism, partly from a mistranslation of a comment by Zhou Enlai, and partly it's because of Western hubris assuming that anyone who switches sides to Capitalism is on the right side of history and will naturally end up a liberal democracy.

Kissinger met with Zhou Enlai before Nixon's trip in 1972 and in the course of two diplomatic giants making conversation he asked Zhou what he thought about the French Revolution. You know, the 1789 one. The translation wasn't perfect and Zhou thought Kissinger meant the Paris student riots earlier that year, so he replied "Too early to tell." which quickly made it into US foreign policy circles as proof of the inscrutable oriental's mysterious and far-sighted way of thought.

If you look at China's foreign policy over the last 50 years it tells a very different story. Mao pissed off the Soviet Union for literally no good reason and left China swinging in the wind for 20 years until Nixon scooped him into the Western camp, then the 1989 massacre burned up all the goodwill Deng had generated and left China in limbo with no allies again. They've talked a good game about peaceful rise and become more and more aggressive with their neighbors.

On the institutional side, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (not sure about the official English name) is widely considered the weakest ministry in the government. State has to defer to Security and to the PLA on pretty much everything. So in a very real sense China's Department of State analog is not at all in control of their foreign policy, much less articulating and guiding an overarching long-term strategy. I think you could say that the last time China had a well-articulated foreign policy strategy was under Deng Xiaoping (bless him) when they really were serious about peaceful rise. Now if China has an overarching foreign policy strategy it's at the mercy of shifting political tides and may exist in half a dozen different brains in Beijing rather than as a coherent institutionally effected policy.

sebmojo
Oct 23, 2010


Legit Cyberpunk










B̵̫̦̬̫͙̭̘͈̟̯̮̥͓̠͕͍̟̩͚̹̻̭̮̰̗̤̆͌̀̽̄̓͆̉̓̎̽̅͋͊́̆̀͊̈̂̆͌̊̽͐̉̉̓̆̃͒̅͊͆̾̀͗̄̚͠͝͠͝ͅr̵̦͎̽̀̓̓̔́̾́̉̀̉̀̈́̅̊́̂͂̔̋̒̀͊̃͂͑̇̆̐͆̂̈́̚͘͘͝e̴̛̺̪̺͍̟͖͈͋̓̎͋̒̈̔̿̅̀̽͗̾̍̂̓̿̽̈́̓͗̑̈̊͑̈́̉̽͆̕̚͝͝͝͠ẓ̶̨̰̟͖̯͇̜͈̦̯͖̙̰̗̭̘͙̬̳̟͍̳͉̭͚͙͓̥͓̆͋̾̇̏͗̋͊͋̆̂̽̂͘͘̕͝ḩ̶͓͓̘̥̘̜̩͑͗̌́̉̾͑̈́̏͗̀͗̾̂̾̋̌̿͆̕̕̕̕͘̚̕̚͜͝ñ̵̲̬͖͚̻̤͆͒̊̌͐̈́͘͜͠ͅȩ̵̨̛̗̜͇̘̙̞͉̖̰̞̤͚̗͚́̑͊̂̅͂̿̈́̿́̂͊͊͊̾͐̈́͊̈́̉̇̔̈́̋̓̀̀̓̾̈̔̍͗̈́̌͘͘̕͝͠͝v̵̧̧̟̹̩͉̮̱̳̻̯̝̖̞̘̘͍͗̈́͒̾̀̌̈́̃̎̀̔̍̈́͆̒̚̕͝͝͠

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Kraftwerk posted:

Isn't the Chinese military a really well equipped and modernized force compared to the Russian one because of all the espionage they've been doing since the 1980s? Like I'm pretty sure they're approaching parity with US forces if not now then in the next 10-20 years and while invading Taiwan would no doubt be a terrible disaster they can just blow up TSMC with a few missiles and disrupt the entire western economy by doing this. Plus they just signed a deal with the Solomans so they're peacefully building what looks like a greater east asia co-prosperity sphere with small islands all over the pacific as anti-ship missile forts to blow up carrier groups with. I thought the US Navy hasn't had any modernization since the 1980s so it's not as equipped to deal with these issues.

Like up till weeks ago there were tons of people on D&D saying China has the capability to destroy carrier groups and that carriers in general are obsolete due to how well they've begun to fortify their pacific missile islands.

literally no one who knows anything at all thinks that china has even close to parity with the US military

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

The government of Ukraine is having some fun with twitter

https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1516694632608014336?s=20&t=2n97BOrKMXzrvMpQifJ5Bg

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

TheFluff
Dec 13, 2006

FRIENDS, LISTEN TO ME
I AM A SEAGULL
OF WEALTH AND TASTE

Kraftwerk posted:

Recall that the Siege of Leningrad lasted 800+ days in which the local population was driven to unspeakable conditions before the city was relieved. Most of WW2 even when the Soviets were pushing back the Germans had Leningrad besieged. Mariupol is just a faster moving version of such a siege and can probably last a longer time than we think.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKwNBfodHaE

Vladimir Vysotsky posted:

I grew up during the Leningrad blockade,
But then I didn’t drink nor roamed the streets.
I saw how Badayevsky warehouses were set on fire,
Like others, I stood in line to get some bread.

Good, brave citizens,
what were you doing then,
When our city didn’t count the bodies of the dead?
Some ate bread with caviar,
but to me the tobacco
Was the only way to save myself from hunger.

Because of the cold the birds weren’t flying,
And the thief had nothing to steal.
That winter my parents were picked up by angels,
While I was even afraid to fall down.

Here were a lot
of starved and retarded,
Everyone starved, even the prosecutor,
And you in the evacuation
read a great deal of information,
And listened to the radio from Sovinformburo.

The blockade went on for too much longer,
But our people destroyed its enemies,
And one could live, like under the arms of Christ,
But the crew of police volunteers is in the way...

I will tell you tenderly,
citizens with bandages -
Don’t try to creep into my soul.
My private life
and my nonpatriotic life
Are known well to high branch organs.

Fun fact: Vladimir Vysotsky's father was a Ukrainian Jew, born in Kyiv in 1915.

TheFluff fucked around with this message at 01:18 on Apr 21, 2022

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5