|
Merlot Brougham posted:France paying bonds for the same price but it pays in a few days. We're all double maxed for Sunday in France right?
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 01:49
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 10, 2024 10:57 |
|
|
i may be holding several thousand le pen shares for election-day jitters i watched the whole loving debate lol, this is the true brokebrain thread
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 04:57
|
|
|
ShadowHawk posted:Right now the Economist is forecasting that Le Pen has a ~10% chance of winning, and also that Macron has a ~10% chance of winning in a 20-point landslide. So there's not a whole lot of confidence it seems I have supreme confidence
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 06:15
|
|
|
JITTERS
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 06:28
|
|
|
i say swears online posted:i may be holding several thousand le pen shares for election-day jitters Do you speak French op?
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 09:28
|
|
|
net work error posted:Do you speak French op? there was real-time translation. Macron's voice actor was way too emotive
|
|
#
?
Apr 21, 2022 15:35
|
|
|
i say swears online posted:i may be holding several thousand le pen shares for election-day jitters I hope you may have been making a joke there. Doesn't seem like there's enough wiggle room (or MAGA money) in the market this time even though the election itself is a carbon copy of the last cycle. I also hope you do alright when the dust settles. Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 07:30 on Apr 24, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 24, 2022 04:23
|
|
|
five minutes until results and macron is pushing .98. i think the money stops being so dumb when there's no trump around. sigh i lost around a hundred bucks, way less than it could have been. sold a few hours ago on turnout forecasts. i still think buying macron at .90 weeks ago was an insane move
|
|
#
?
Apr 24, 2022 18:55
|
|
|
i say swears online posted:five minutes until results and macron is pushing .98. i think the money stops being so dumb when there's no trump around. sigh We really do need Trump in the race to profit off the truly deranged.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2022 00:17
|
|
|
i say swears online posted:i still think buying macron at .90 weeks ago was an insane move Hey now, I got in around 80.  Glad your situation didn't end up worse. Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 21:54 on Apr 25, 2022 |
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2022 21:46
|
|
|
buying lottos tends not to turn to disaster as often as bonding does in my experience bonding beto to be the nominee was still the most sure thing i've done in the last year
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2022 21:49
|
|
|
fetterman .95 lol, i guess that's pretty much a sure thing now too
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2022 21:53
|
|
|
i say swears online posted:buying lottos tends not to turn to disaster as often as bonding does in my experience Or as I like to call him, the John James of Texas.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2022 21:53
|
|
|
ShadowHawk posted:Will Sweden or Finland take formal steps to join NATO in 2022? seems way underpriced right now (at 89%).
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2022 10:37
|
|
|
i hate jd vance so much
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2022 01:47
|
|
|
If you believe in the leaked Supreme Court Roe v Wade opinion you can bet it's real here: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7504
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2022 02:25
|
|
|
I made a fuckload off of the Biden Approval market that resolves tomorrow morning, and now I dumped it all into Madison Cawthorn at 49c for the NC-11 primary market. It resolves in 10 days.
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2022 01:59
|
|
|
Grandpa Palpatine posted:I made a fuckload off of the Biden Approval market that resolves tomorrow morning, and now I dumped it all into Madison Cawthorn at 49c for the NC-11 primary market. he's having a great day
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2022 02:38
|
|
|
i say swears online posted:he's having a great day it's true. so easy to pump and buy & pump & dump I love trolling the comments section. So much better than facebook!
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2022 04:54
|
|
|
Grandpa Palpatine posted:it's true. We need do be doing this in a more organized fashion.
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2022 21:58
|
|
|
y'all in on the kathy barnette surge
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2022 22:08
|
|
|
i say swears online posted:y'all in on the kathy barnette surge I am not. I have not been watching
|
|
#
?
May 11, 2022 23:53
|
|
|
How well known is barnette? Can she beat Oz's fame and Trump's endorsement?
|
|
#
?
May 12, 2022 00:37
|
|
|
Crosby B. Alfred posted:How well known is barnette? Can she beat Oz's fame and Trump's endorsement? Not sure, but Oz does seem to have very little enthusiasm behind him for a Trump-endorsed, celebrity candidate. He's been leading in the polls but basically within the margin of error - I think the Fox poll from a day or two ago had him at 22, McCormick 20, and Barnette 19 - and there are still a high number of people saying they're undecided even after Trump's endorsement. Doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm on the ground either from what I'm told. There's also the question of whether support for either McCormick or Barnette might collapse and if so who benefits? And it seems from polling that the main concern of Republican primary voters in the state is who can win in November, so you might end up seeing some of that "I prefer X but I'm voting for Y because he's more electable" energy. If I had to pick a favorite I'd give a slight edge to Barnette because she's surging at just the right time and I have a feeling a decent chunk of McCormick supporters would switch to her if it looks like it'll come down to her or Oz. But honestly I'd consider the market a pure gamble at this point, too much uncertainty and nobody is clearly underpriced. (I got some Oz Y when it became clear Trump was going to endorse him and went heavily into Barnette N way too early and am regretting both decisions now. And that's after selling a ton of cheap Barnette Y shares a few weeks ago ago when she jumped all the way up to... 10c.  )Edit: Should have added, another element of uncertainty is that Barnette is relatively unknown and hasn't been a focus of the others in the race up to this point, so it wasn't clear what kind of ammo there was against her. The price just shifted 6-7c on Hannity tearing into her. Atahualpa has issued a correction as of 03:04 on May 12, 2022 |
|
#
?
May 12, 2022 02:23
|
|
|
If Oz has the blessing of Fox News and gets their anchors as free attacks dogs... I'm put my money on Oz.
|
|
#
?
May 12, 2022 04:37
|
|
|
rip, currently losing money on oz. i won betting against cawthorn but wasn't enough to make up for it
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2022 02:28
|
|
|
Yay, got lucky on that one. I got burned recently on getting in on Vance N way too early and couldn't shake the feeling that I had set myself up for the same here with Barnette N. Just LOL if McCormick pulls it off after all; it was always a possibility with Barnette splitting the crazy vote but I think he was like 13c yesterday and now he's up 1.2% with 66% of the vote counted. I think the remaining areas are supposed to lean Oz though; it'll be close if so. Edit: Looking more and more like McCormick, RIP my shares in the "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?" market. Atahualpa has issued a correction as of 03:41 on May 18, 2022 |
|
#
?
May 18, 2022 03:15
|
|
|
diamond hands
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2022 03:34
|
|
|
Is it safe to make money betting that Dr. Oz will win, yet?
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2022 19:58
|
|
|
it's possible he wins by a few hundo but a recount will languish awhile and prices will fluctuate. i'm staying out for now
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2022 20:06
|
|
|
Same here. I'm now debating how I'm going to bet on midterms. On one hand, Republicans hold an advantage due to current economic conditions. Not exactly the democrats fault but perception is reality. On the other hand, Republicans especially the "MAGA Crowd" is still extremely unpopular so much that it's impacting their electability in the general.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2022 22:53
|
|
|
gas prices might skyrocket past $6/gallon which is not going to be good for democrats in the midterms regardless of maga
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2022 22:57
|
|
|
Republicans should be the default choice to win swing districts but there are enough monstrously incompetent idiots running that they could easily throw some key races.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2022 23:43
|
|
|
i bought some dem senate on the roe news but definitely don't think it's likely they hold
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 00:29
|
|
|
What are we thinking on Oz vs. Fetterman? I think Fetterman's great but can he beat the worlds best career Dr. Conman?
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 04:35
|
|
|
depends on if he actually got hosed by that stroke
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 04:39
|
|
|
Crosby B. Alfred posted:What are we thinking on Oz vs. Fetterman? I think Fetterman's great but can he beat the worlds best career Dr. Conman? I think/hope there will be better markets around.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 17:51
|
|
|
Anyone checked out kalshi? Seems very similar to predictit, but with more finance (and covid) related markets. Not nearly as much volume unfortunately, pretty wide spreads. The fee schedule is more transaction (per/contract) based, not on profits and withdrawals. https://kalshi.com/docs/kalshi-fee-schedule.pdf Thinking about putting some money in, but my accountant is gonna hate me for generating *another* set of 1099s or whatever this place spits out.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 20:52
|
|
|
Baddog posted:Anyone checked out kalshi? Seems very similar to predictit, but with more finance (and covid) related markets. Not nearly as much volume unfortunately, pretty wide spreads. I have checked it out briefly a while ago but do not have an account. I am ready to be persuaded, though.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2022 21:48
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 10, 2024 10:57 |
|
|
lol
|
|
#
?
May 25, 2022 01:49
|
|