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FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

What I'm guessing is a couple of Ukrainian spec ops teams crossed the border and went on a road trip

Warehouses burn down all the time and its easy to make conspiracy theories out of it

this is clearly the work of Russian special forces

https://twitter.com/GraduatedBen/status/1516851257381642244


FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 18:31 on Apr 21, 2022

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Mr. Apollo
Nov 8, 2000

Some people are saying it might be an internal operation and will be blamed on NATO and used as a reason to attack NATO countries but I can't see that. The Russian leadership has to know that they would get absolutely steamrolled by NATO.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007



I'm not sure I'd want to be standing that close to a giant burning collection of horrible chemicals.

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

Definitely, the Russian upper class is feeling pressured to the point of desperation right now. I was actually in email contact yesterday with a wealthy Russian heiress looking to transfer millions of dollars into a US bank account, she was offering to give me 25% if I agreed to help

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
https://mobile.twitter.com/DimSel007/status/1517184021054337026

Confused by the parachute here. Also, yoink.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Kraftwerk posted:

What's the most popular theory? Is it Putin killing the leaks in his inner circle (since CIA intel seems to be getting fly on the wall coverage of his meetings), western intelligence agencies doing assassinations, or some Ukrainian sympathetic people going in and murdering them in retribution?

I'll take option number 1.
Always go for whatever fits the mafia state model.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KSaS6eDN5E

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Mr. Apollo posted:

Some people are saying it might be an internal operation and will be blamed on NATO and used as a reason to attack NATO countries but I can't see that. The Russian leadership has to know that they would get absolutely steamrolled by NATO.

What would they even attack NATO with? Russia can barely manage fighting one country, what army would be used to attack any other country with?.

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

i think the oligarchs who are dying are the people the other oligarchs have left holding the bag for the financial impact of sanctions. like they are in the hole for 20 bojillion dollars to everyone else, who have elected to say 'not my problem' when told that the money's just not there.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Atreiden posted:

What would they even attack NATO with? Russia can barely manage fighting one country, what army would be used to attack any other country with?.

Atomic weapons. The logic goes that Russia would take out European forces with nuclear weapons and then force the US to either negotiate or retaliate and kill about 90 million people.

Bionic Psyker
Apr 23, 2009

Atreiden posted:

What would they even attack NATO with? Russia can barely manage fighting one country, what army would be used to attack any other country with?.

I've read a theory that Putin couldn't stomach losing to Ukraine, but his pride would allow himself to lose to NATO. This would also cement him as Russia's protector vs. the West

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

FishBulbia posted:

Warehouses burn down all the time and its easy to make conspiracy theories out of it

this is clearly the work of Russian special forces

https://twitter.com/GraduatedBen/status/1516851257381642244




wow 12 fires over 14 months??

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Herstory Begins Now posted:

wow 12 fires over 14 months??

2 fires occurred in Russia, NATO did this

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003


I wonder if, at the end of this, there will be a lot of second-hand Canon DSLRs on the market?

Honj Steak
May 31, 2013

Hi there.
If the American drones that Ukraine was given were actually operated by US soldiers, would anybody be able to find that out?

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Honj Steak posted:

If the American drones that Ukraine was given were actually operated by US soldiers, would anybody be able to find that out?

US Soldiers wouldn't be operating switchblades as they are meant to be field deployed. If you start seeing Predator drones flying over Kyiv, then maybe.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




A good thread on the guy of “Russians aghast at the sight of asphalt” fame.

https://twitter.com/leonov_mr/status/1517152576352911362

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Mr. Apollo posted:

Some people are saying it might be an internal operation and will be blamed on NATO and used as a reason to attack NATO countries but I can't see that. The Russian leadership has to know that they would get absolutely steamrolled by NATO.

Decades ago installation of sub-par electrical wiring, now corroded with exposed copper, and compounded by loose standards with no safety inspections to mitigate an aging physical plant tracks nicely with what we know about their armor inventory. Whilst the CIA may not be their friend, neither is shite electrical wiring. Wouldn't read too much into it.

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea
Maybe the Phoenix Ghost will be Ukraine's De Havilland Mosquito

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

FishBulbia posted:

2 fires occurred in Russia, NATO did this

Very credible forums poster calibannibal confirmed this, actually

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

What I'm guessing is a couple of Ukrainian spec ops teams crossed the border and went on a road trip

What about a more Russian explanation - factory gets shut down due to sanctions, owners burn it down for the insurance


We've seen a lot of the shoestring design of these things, presumably the parachute is there because it's infinitely cheaper than any sort of landing guidance system.

Comedy answer is that it's incapable of transmitting the photos it takes and instead has to fly back to the operator for them to take the camera out of it to get at the images.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Chalks posted:

What about a more Russian explanation - factory gets shut down due to sanctions, owners burn it down for the insurance

not sure i'd rather have a claim against a russian insurance company than a shut down factory

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Chalks posted:

We've seen a lot of the shoestring design of these things, presumably the parachute is there because it's infinitely cheaper than any sort of landing guidance system.

Comedy answer is that it's incapable of transmitting the photos it takes and instead has to fly back to the operator for them to take the camera out of it to get at the images.

I assume it’s just the cost of landing mechanism, though the latter was a documented issue during Russian war with Georgia.

with a rebel yell she QQd
Jan 18, 2007

Villain



It's actually how this drone lands.

Edit:
From Wikipedia
Launch method: folding catapult platform
Landing method: parachute recovery

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

FishBulbia posted:

Atomic weapons. The logic goes that Russia would take out European forces with nuclear weapons and then force the US to either negotiate or retaliate and kill about 90 million people.

The UK and France might have strong views on this

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Young Freud posted:

The ballistic missile research center and now a chemical plant feel like they're too vital to be a Putin-branded false flag.

a putin false flag would be like a childrens hospital or an apartment at night. this is like real military logistics targets that like commandos/IC types would target or maybe partisans.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Chalks posted:

What about a more Russian explanation - factory gets shut down due to sanctions, owners burn it down for the insurance

We've seen a lot of the shoestring design of these things, presumably the parachute is there because it's infinitely cheaper than any sort of landing guidance system.

Comedy answer is that it's incapable of transmitting the photos it takes and instead has to fly back to the operator for them to take the camera out of it to get at the images.

I think that's actually true. They've taken apart a few of them and there is no video transmission ability as far as I've seen. They take a bunch of images/video and have to be retrieved to get them out.

There was a story of a brief firefight with a Russian squad trying to retrieve one.

The Orlan-10 drones are pretty primitive.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1517165297500921857?t=I0yIWmT8hw3dGPRa0ZssHg&s=19

Survived the fascist invasion from the west, only to die at the hands of fascists coming from the east 80 years later

Dreylad
Jun 19, 2001

CapnPegLeg posted:

Hi folks,
I promised I'd update my situation if I was traveling to Ukraine.

I've accepted the International Legion's contract offer today via videoconference and will be landing in Warsaw next week. I needed to get my own situation straightened out before making the decision including trying to have a new prosthetic made before departure (not happening dammit).

I've got a meeting with the Warsaw embassy once I land and will then be meeting up with a very kind Goon helping on the border to arrange transportation. My destination at this point is Lviv where I've got a meeting with some local units and deliveries to make. From there...no idea yet.

Thank you all for keeping me updated on the war situation since this all began. We joke a lot about these old dead forums but it has been a really valuable source. As OPSEC permits, I will absolutely be keeping you updated here and via social media if mods permit.

Cheers.

If this is a real post, I cannot emphasize enough how much of a bad idea this is, and you should really reconsider what you are doing. But please stay safe.

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

FishBulbia posted:

Warehouses burn down all the time and its easy to make conspiracy theories out of it

this is clearly the work of Russian special forces

https://twitter.com/GraduatedBen/status/1516851257381642244




While I agree that they're unrelated, :lol: at using a tweet that says A BUNCH OF PLACES HAVE BURNED DOWN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS and the 'past few days' is actually the past 425 days.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Dreylad posted:

If this is a real post, I cannot emphasize enough how much of a bad idea this is, and you should really reconsider what you are doing. But please stay safe.

I don't know what volunteers without language skills or at least medical/combat skills think they're gonna do to help. Manpower doesn;t seem to be Ukraine's issue

DOOMocrat
Oct 2, 2003

CapnPegLeg posted:

Hi folks,
I promised I'd update my situation if I was traveling to Ukraine.

I've accepted the International Legion's contract offer today via videoconference and will be landing in Warsaw next week. I needed to get my own situation straightened out before making the decision including trying to have a new prosthetic made before departure (not happening dammit).

I've got a meeting with the Warsaw embassy once I land and will then be meeting up with a very kind Goon helping on the border to arrange transportation. My destination at this point is Lviv where I've got a meeting with some local units and deliveries to make. From there...no idea yet.

Thank you all for keeping me updated on the war situation since this all began. We joke a lot about these old dead forums but it has been a really valuable source. As OPSEC permits, I will absolutely be keeping you updated here and via social media if mods permit.

Cheers.

Proud of you. The comfortable will preach, the resolute will act.

FishBulbia posted:

I don't know what volunteers without language skills or at least medical/combat skills think they're gonna do to help. Manpower doesn;t seem to be Ukraine's issue

He's joining an investigations team, where his background and English are an asset.

DOOMocrat fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Apr 21, 2022

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




:nms: not a graphic post - “just” a satellite image of 300 metres long mass grave near Mariupol
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1517177325263245313

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Honj Steak posted:

If the American drones that Ukraine was given were actually operated by US soldiers, would anybody be able to find that out?

You could track their movements by following the trail of litter from American MRE packs on ground. Plus probably from nutritional supplements such as Cheetos, M&M's etc.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

evilweasel posted:

the dog is probably officially a human soldier, for the purposes of payroll reported to the higher-ups :v:

:negative: someday we'll find out this post is 100% true.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Ynglaur posted:

:negative: someday we'll find out this post is 100% true.

It’s going to be like the other goon said, that dog is actually 5 soldiers (and a helicopter).

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

cinci zoo sniper posted:

It’s going to be like the other goon said, that dog is actually 5 soldiers (and a helicopter).

one simple trick to get your dog a monthly allowance of aviation fuel!

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird
My top candidate for the burned down buildings in Russia is "Looking over records, this facility has only been operating at 1/3 capacity for the last 20 years. Your production target is now 110% capacity."

and then discovering what happens when you run equipment at rated capacity when the contractor installed wiring 2 sizes too thin and pocketed the difference

Small Strange Bird
Sep 22, 2006

Merci, chaton!

Grape posted:

I'll take option number 1.
Always go for whatever fits the mafia state model.
I'd wondered if Putin had committed the number one sin in the eyes of the Mafia: he's hosed with the money. So he's pre-emptively taking out potential opposition (and their families) as a warning to the other dons that he can send the FSB after them wherever they are in the world.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Payndz posted:

I'd wondered if Putin had committed the number one sin in the eyes of the Mafia: he's hosed with the money. So he's pre-emptively taking out potential opposition (and their families) as a warning to the other dons that he can send the FSB after them wherever they are in the world.

You have to assume these guys have security guys, wonder how many of them are FSB.

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evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Payndz posted:

I'd wondered if Putin had committed the number one sin in the eyes of the Mafia: he's hosed with the money. So he's pre-emptively taking out potential opposition (and their families) as a warning to the other dons that he can send the FSB after them wherever they are in the world.

i think the second sentence is basically correct (but not the first)

putin realizes that things are going sideways in a way that could threaten him in the future just in general, as various powerful people/groups suffer losses. what better time to messily murder a handful of suspected disloyal people as an example to everyone else to stay far away from the line, not just don't go over it, and that nobody is safe from putin's retribution if you aren't loyal enough

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