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euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

kanters best year he had a 24 per and .226 ws/48

career 20 per and .157 ws / 48

so year they loved him

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Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

euphronius posted:

(advanced stats LOVED eves lantern )

what

euph i keep telling you to stop huffing glue aka win shares

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Nikola Freedom

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Yossarian-22 posted:

what

euph i keep telling you to stop huffing glue aka win shares

I don’t think win shares are very good

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

some people created a model for what they thought was valuable on a basketball court and the model ;for various reasons ) turned out to be wrong , or misleading , or incomplete

Instead of changing their model or using it as a guide only ; they have turned the model into reality and have forgotten reality

this is I guess a common human thing that happened

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

euphronius posted:

kanters best year he had a 24 per and .226 ws/48

career 20 per and .157 ws / 48

so year they loved him

His career advanced stats suggest he was playable for all of like four seasons. He averaged a career BPM of -0.1. You are illiterate

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

if you are telling me advanced stats aren’t good I agree

kanter isn’t actually good. but he has advanced stats that say he’s an all star

that’s the point I’m sorry if I’m moving to fast for you

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

euphronius posted:

I don’t think win shares are very good

none of the advanced stats analytics nerds (me) uphold win shares

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2022_advanced.html#advanced_stats::bpm

if you wanna complain about basketball reference analytics there's always the fact that Robert Williams was the 10 highest rated player this year according to BPM

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Anyway the season is over it was nice while it lasted

https://twitter.com/ramonashelburne/status/1517619177955086336?s=21&t=vyEylmpoPRm8osCQKysQBA

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

Here's RPM http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm

Porzingis ranked ahead of Devin Booker and Jaylen Brown, and yet for some reason he was traded for Dinwiddie and Dallas got better whereas Washington got worse lol

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

euphronius posted:

if you are telling me advanced stats aren’t good I agree

kanter isn’t actually good. but he has advanced stats that say he’s an all star

that’s the point I’m sorry if I’m moving to fast for you

You are the only person on earth other than perhaps Enes himself who believes that his advanced stats suggest he's an all star

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

raptor had 15-16 Kanter as the 56th best player in the nba lol

Jesus Christ raptor

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Vox Nihili posted:

You are the only person on earth other than perhaps Enes himself who believes that his advanced stats suggest he's an all star

some of them do I’m sorry they are terrible stats !!

that’s my whole point ahh stop agreeing with me and making it sound like I’m wrong it’s gas lighting

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

PER was developed in 2007 by John Hollinger because of players like Stephon Marbury and Antoine Walker having way too many possessions and poor shot selection (long 2s and lots of misses in general) in order to identify "efficient" players who make use of their touches, so a player who mostly does ally oops/putbacks and never handles the ball looks "efficient." Win shares is bbref's effort to compare players from different eras and only really remains on there because it's impossible to measure plus-minus stats for any player prior to the 70s since there wasn't good enough record keeping to measure "impact" back then. It's not a good stat

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Here's some actual news

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1517610808699666434

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

I know they aren’t good stats !!

ahhhhhhhhhhh

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011
the only stat you can count on is points scored which is why donovan mitchell is the mvp

worst ever at ping-pong
Jun 11, 2010


If you think about it the center is like the goalie of basketball. You wouldn't pull your goalie all game even if your extra attacker was really good!

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

vyelkin posted:

the only stat you can count on is points scored which is why donovan mitchell is the mvp

Donovan also has a huge lead in defensive contact successfully avoided at the rim

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

worst ever at ping-pong posted:

If you think about it the center is like the goalie of basketball. You wouldn't pull your goalie all game even if your extra attacker was really good!

that is a good analogy

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

euphronius posted:

I know they aren’t good stats !!

ahhhhhhhhhhh

if they aren't good stats and nobody in the analytics community uses them, why do you keep using them to say that the analytics make kanter look good?

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?
it’s an ok analogy

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

worst ever at ping-pong posted:

If you think about it the center is like the goalie of basketball. You wouldn't pull your goalie all game even if your extra attacker was really good!

dallas and golden state are collectively 5-1 in these playoffs without a real center. we're in the "small ball" era of basketball now where games aren't won in the post

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Yossarian-22 posted:

dallas and golden state are collectively 5-1 in these playoffs without a real center. we're in the "small ball" era of basketball now where games aren't won in the post

I'm pretty sure that guy is making a joke

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011
we all remember those goalies who famously score 30 goals a game

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

Yossarian-22 posted:

if they aren't good stats and nobody in the analytics community uses them, why do you keep using them to say that the analytics make kanter look good?

no advanced stat even comes close to capturing individual defensive play so they’re pretty much all useless as applied to specific players. lineup stats look fairly reliable (assuming a decent minute threshold), overall team stats even better

e:

Yossarian-22 posted:

we're in the "small ball" era of basketball now

we were during the height of the Warriors run but it’s pretty clear that’s changing (not that it’s going back to a post-dominant game but it’s evolving pretty quickly)

indigi fucked around with this message at 23:13 on Apr 22, 2022

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

indigi posted:

no advanced stat even comes close to capturing individual defensive play so they’re pretty much all useless as applied to specific players. lineup stats look fairly reliable (assuming a decent minute threshold), overall team stats even better

its right up there with offensive line performance in football as something that is drat near impossible to capture except as a team stat. with a sufficiently long career and sufficiently varied teammates, you can tease out signal from the noise but i dunno that even with advanced metrics you can get anywhere more than like tiers of players, to say nothing of even trying to get into rankings or even judging two players in the same tier

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

one issue with defensive plus-minus analytics is that you might be that much better than your backup at the same position but that might just be more damning for your team than it is a vindication of the player. like ja morant's plus-minus numbers make him look worse than he really is because the roster is so deep that the team functions fine without him

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

I guess he will be able to play thoroug the thumb injury

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?
is there anything more frustrating as a sports fan than your team’s best player being fragile

worst ever at ping-pong
Jun 11, 2010


Losing

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005


Winning an unimportant game and losing your fragile best player in the process

a new study bible!
Feb 2, 2009



BIG DICK NICK
A Philadelphia Legend
Fly Eagles Fly


on a more philosophical level, advanced stats don’t do things like measure how much your teammates like playing with you, how much your effort translates into crowd noise/reciprocal effort by other players, and any number of infinitely abstract metrics that undoubtedly have a greater difference over a whole game than a single rebound or assist. because this kind of poo poo is a universal understanding (“some players got that dawg in them” or whatever) while simultaneously being unquantifiable, you have losers trying to sell a player like Jokic over Embiid from a narrative standpoint.

even if we accept that Jokic has a worse team around him, there is no way to quantify the magnitude of how hosed up and precarious the Sixers’ future has been for the entire year. does the absence of Murray and MPJ overrule the play without Ben Simmons? perhaps statistically, and yet the nuggets weren’t contenders last year nor were they ever considered to be contenders this year. nor did they have a media circus follow them after every game. Jokic hasn’t been criticized in his career nearly a fraction of what Embiid has gotten over the past year alone. maybe that’s a function of market size, maybe it’s a race thing, maybe it’s a number of factors.

and that’s the point. so rather than try to paint jokic as having a numerically superior season, despite the fact that he didn’t break scoring records or any of those traditional markers (although he did hit the arbitrary 2000/1000/500 thing that people tried to make happen) just say that you like his number more because even though it’s all made out of the same RBA and mins that a box score has, you prefer a box score that’s chopped and screwed.

but the narrative aspects of arguing the case just open you up to more criticism imo. maybe in hindsight we can acknowledge that the nba community has put far too much faith in the ability of their special numbers to describe a game, season, or career that will always be indescribable by even words, let alone numbers. now isn’t that time though.

tldr- eye test better

a new study bible! fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Apr 23, 2022

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

very well said

a new study bible!
Feb 2, 2009



BIG DICK NICK
A Philadelphia Legend
Fly Eagles Fly


I’m soaking in the tub rn

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

a new study bible! posted:

even if we accept that Jokic has a worse team around him, there is no way to quantify the magnitude of how hosed up and precarious the Sixers’ future has been for the entire year. does the absence of Murray and MPJ overrule the play without Ben Simmons? perhaps statistically, and yet the nuggets weren’t contenders last year nor were they ever considered to be contenders this year. nor did they have a media circus follow them after every game. Jokic hasn’t been criticized in his career nearly a fraction of what Embiid has gotten over the past year alone. maybe that’s a function of market size, maybe it’s a race thing, maybe it’s a number of factors.

If Harden and Maxey (feel free to substitute your preferred equivalents for Murray and MPJ) were out the Sixers sweep would very likely be going in the opposite direction. It's a team sport. Maybe if you're peak LeBron you can skate by with only three of your top five guys, but it's a death sentence for most teams in a playoff environment. We don't get to find out if the Nuggets would have been a contender-level team this year because they didn't have those guys. If you think you can say definitively that they would or wouldn't have been contenders you're just lying to yourself.

Regular season basketball achievements are overrated anyway. I think Jokic was a solid choice for regular season MVP, but that doesn't mean much on its own. Playoffs are different, and individual players can be schemed against. Teams play actual defense (unless you're the Jazz). Just a different, and IMO better, measure of player quality all around.

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

Vox Nihili posted:

If Harden and Maxey (feel free to substitute your preferred equivalents for Murray and MPJ) were out the Sixers sweep would very likely be going in the opposite direction. It's a team sport. Maybe if you're peak LeBron you can skate by with only three of your top five guys, but it's a death sentence for most teams in a playoff environment. We don't get to find out if the Nuggets would have been a contender-level team this year because they didn't have those guys. If you think you can say definitively that they would or wouldn't have been contenders you're just lying to yourself.

Regular season basketball achievements are overrated anyway. I think Jokic was a solid choice for regular season MVP, but that doesn't mean much on its own. Playoffs are different, and individual players can be schemed against. Teams play actual defense (unless you're the Jazz). Just a different, and IMO better, measure of player quality all around.

good post

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

I understand Denver doesn’t have great players . the point is jokic is also not a great player the past three games

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

which one of you was it

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euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

like even with Murray and Porter or whatever his name was they would have a lot of trouble in the playoffs becuase jokic isn’t good enough.

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