NFL Draft Thread 2022

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BiggerBoat: Sep 26, 2007; Don't you tell me my business again.

Grittybeard posted:

For the person he is Justin Blackmon was surprisingly okish when he was on the field. Especially considering he had Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert throwing to him.

You know he was blind drunk all the time probably including during games/practices/whatever because that's who he is and he still put up 1200+ yards in the NFL over one and a quarter seasons. Whole thing's a goddamned shame.

Yeah, I loved the pick at the time and he wasn't half bad when he played

I was surprised to see the Eagles and Howie Roseman so high up on this list (#6)

# ? Apr 23, 2022 15:26

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# ? Jun 2, 2024 23:25

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

BiggerBoat posted:

Pretty fun article ranking every team's draft success over a ten year period

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33297949/nfl-draft-which-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32

2012 WR Justin Blackmon, -49.9 (1st)
2013 T Luke Joeckel, -40.5 (1st)
2014 WR Marqise Lee, -15.5 (2nd)
2015 OLB Dante Fowler, -25.1 (1st)
2016 DT Sheldon Day, -8.5 (4th)
2017 LB Blair Brown, -7.0 (5th)
2018 DT Taven Bryan, -9.1 (1st)
2019 LB Josh Allen, -4.9 (1st)
2020 CB C.J. Henderson, -8.7 (1st)
2021 T Walker Little, -3.4 (2nd)

These are Jaguar's lowest ranked valued players from each draft. That's 8 picks in either the 1st or 2nd round

Not a lot of those were reaches but a few are. I don't see how Josh Allen is the worst player of the 2019 draft. Guys got 20 sacks already and is a defensive force.

# ? Apr 23, 2022 18:00

Grittybeard: Mar 29, 2010; Bad, very bad!

Doltos posted:

Not a lot of those were reaches but a few are. I don't see how Josh Allen is the worst player of the 2019 draft. Guys got 20 sacks already and is a defensive force.

I think that just means he was picked in the first round and was somehow the worst pick for the Jags by whatever metric of their draft picks that year? Yeah I have no clue how they're coming up with these numbers.

Oh it's...some kinda bullshit but whatever, it's draft season and we need content I guess.

quote:

How we rank: To evaluate the players taken in each of the past 10 NFL drafts (2012-2021), we used Approximate Value (AV) -- Pro Football Reference's method of measuring the performance of every NFL player. We took each player's career AV and measured it against a value based on where that player was taken in the NFL draft -- we're calling it Career Approximate Value Over Expected (CAVOE).

For example, players drafted in the first or second rounds have a higher baseline for performance, so if they struggle they will have much lower CAVOE scores than a sixth- or seventh-round pick who made little impact.

AV is a fun thing to look at but even PFR admits it's an imperfect way to attempt to get a baseline for every position. So it's really just fun to look at and think about and doesn't mean a whole lot. Especially in the short term like with Allen.

Then they're adding some sort of formula on top of it comparing it to draft position. This is just something to read and waste time on for a while it seems.

# ? Apr 23, 2022 18:19

Chucktesla: Jul 13, 2014

What the gently caress was Luke joekel's deal he was more or less a coin flip away from being the first overall pick, pegged to be an NFL left tackle back in high school, and he was unplayable his entire time in the league

# ? Apr 23, 2022 18:21

a neat cape: Feb 22, 2007; Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

That list has the Chargers ranked pretty bad, but I think getting Herbert, Bosa, Derwin, Slater, Keenan, and Mike is that time frame is pretty cool

# ? Apr 23, 2022 18:57

BiggerBoat: Sep 26, 2007; Don't you tell me my business again.

Grittybeard posted:

I think that just means he was picked in the first round and was somehow the worst pick for the Jags by whatever metric of their draft picks that year? Yeah I have no clue how they're coming up with these numbers.

They're evaluating value based on where they were picked and compared to other players that were taken in similar spots. They're not calling Josh Allen a "bust" so much as evaluating him next to other players taken in that spot at the same position. And Josh Allen has hardly set the world on fire of AFIAK even made a pro bowl which is what you think you're getting there.

He's an OK player but the idea is that in that draft slot, you're supposed to get more and they grade it out that way.

Chucktesla posted:

What the gently caress was Luke joekel's deal he was more or less a coin flip away from being the first overall pick, pegged to be an NFL left tackle back in high school, and he was unplayable his entire time in the league

No one knows. He was a consensus cant miss at LT and then went Tony Mandaraich/Robert Gallery with it. And, man, did he ever truly suck. Usually, O-lineman are one of the easiest positions to evaluate and Joekel was supposed to be the second coming of Tony Boselli but he couldn't even play guard when they moved him there and was a total washout.

I'm not an NFL GM or even a statistician. It was just some poo poo I read that I thought the thread might want to check out.

# ? Apr 23, 2022 19:44

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Chucktesla posted:

What the gently caress was Luke joekel's deal he was more or less a coin flip away from being the first overall pick, pegged to be an NFL left tackle back in high school, and he was unplayable his entire time in the league

Went to a poo poo rear end team, got played out of position, then got hurt. Kind of the textbook reason why you don't let LT's "grow up" on the right side. Lost all his speed and quickness once he started getting those ankle injuries and then wasn't big enough to take on NFL linemen. Plus he had Bortles behind him and Bortles sucked rear end making him look even worse.

# ? Apr 23, 2022 22:52

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

https://www.golongtd.com/p/part-4-r...iy_hEeXJr4k&s=r

quote:

The 4.6 running back is persona non grata in some NFL draft rooms. Maybe he�s not off the draft board, but it�s often understood from the GM on down that their team doesn�t want him.

Iowa State�s Breece Hall and Michigan State�s Kenneth Walker are consensus choices as the leading backs this year. They ran their 40�s in the low-to-mid 4.4s.

Hall and Walker combined for 15 of 17 first-place votes cast by scouts for the best back in the draft. They amassed 57% of the total points allocated in the 1-2-3-4-5 poll, leaving 43% of the scraps to the others.

�It�s Breece Hall and everybody else,� said an AFC executive in personnel who voted 1-2 for Hall-Walker, one of 13 of 17 scouts that placed those two players at the top of his ballot. �It�s Breece Hall and then just a bunch of guys.�

Six of the 10 backs this year ran in the 4.4s, and a seventh clocked 4.5 flat. Everyone wants a player that won�t be caught from behind if he can skip past the middle safety. A 65-yard touchdown run can be decisive whereas a 30-yard gain usually isn�t.

Yet, for all the emphasis on speed in today�s game, that back with the modest 40 need not embark upon another career just yet.

�These backs that run 4.6, you can�t dismiss them because they�re 4.6,� one personnel man said. �A back can get by with 4.6 if he�s got the instincts and the burst.�

Let�s define a 4.6 back. Some teams use a player�s fastest time as his official time. My method generally is to average the hand-held times from the combine and pro days. Using my system, I defined a 4.6 back as players that ran between 4.56 and 4.65.

Of my top 27 backs this year, 11 fit the description of a 4.6 back. Ten played in Power 5 conferences, and the 11th played for a major independent.

LSU�s Ty Davis-Price wasn�t part of the group because he ran 4.53. He�s No. 13 on my list. But, like the majority of the 11, he has the ability to flourish in the NFL.

An AFC personnel director said the 15th back in this draft could turn out to be the best of the class �especially if the guy goes to an offense that matches him physically. Davis-Price is another one who shows everything you want. Might not be a great fit for an outside zone, but it would not shock me at all if he got 1,000 yards.�

Our �Gang of 4.6� included Isaiah Spiller (4.63), Brian Robinson (4.60), Dameon Pierce (4.61), Snoop Conner (4.64), ZaQuandre White (4.62), Tyler Allgeier (4.65), Keaontay Ingram (4.59), Jashaun Corbin (4.60), Zonovan Knight (4.56) and Kennedy Brooks (4.60). Hassan Haskins didn�t run a 40, but based on the estimate of three scouts let�s include him with an assigned time of 4.65.

Ron Wolf, the Hall of Fame general manager and scout for four teams from 1963-�01, evaluated hundreds of 4.6 backs.

�Speed is always a factor but backs are a unique position so it really didn�t bother me,� said Wolf. �To me, if you have the capability, if you were good in college, you will get yardage up here in the big leagues. I�m not talking about 4.8, 4.7, or if you played against (lower competition).�

Wolf continued: �We had special criteria. They had to be able to pass protect, catch the ball and run, and, in some instances, run block. What did I look for? Results.�

Our �Gang of 4.6� includes five players with at least 3,000 yards from scrimmage in their careers and four with at least 2,000. Five have rushed for 1,000 yards in a season.

Before anyone would care to write off anyone in the group, consider for a moment this list of 20 backs with 4.6 speed that I culled from my files covering the last 10 drafts.

Le�Veon Bell (4.57) and Eddie Lacy (4.59) in 2013.

Carlos Hyde (4.61) and James White (4.58) in 2014.

Mike Davis (4.56) in 2015.

Jordan Howard (4.59) in 2016.

Alvin Kamara (4.59), Kareem Hunt (4.59), James Conner (4.64), Aaron Jones (4.58) and Jamaal Williams (4.56) in 2017.

Josh Jacobs (4.63), David Montgomery (4.59), Darrell Henderson (4.58) and Devin Singletary (4.65) in 2019.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (4.59), Zack Moss (4.62) and James Robinson (4.64) in 2020.

Javonte Williams (4.56) and Rhamondre Stevenson (4.64) in 2021.

Of those 20 backs, eight have made at least one Pro Bowl, eight have at least 150 receptions and eight have rushed for 1,000 yards in a season.

The all-time 4.6 back is the all-time leading rusher, Emmitt Smith. That�s about what Wolf remembered him running out of Florida in 1990.

�He had just uncanny balance and he was tough,� said Wolf. �Thing about him, he trusted that the hole was going to be there.�

In the poll of scouts, with a first-place worth 5 points, a second-place vote worth 4 and so on, Hall led with 73 points and eight firsts compared to Walker�s 71 points and seven firsts.

Following, in order, were Isaiah Spiller (21), Brian Robinson (20), James Cook (16), Dameon Pierce (13, one first), Zamir White (nine), Jerome Ford (eight), Ty Chandler (seven, one first), Rachaad White (seven), Ty Davis-Price (three), Kyren Williams (three), Hassan Haskins (two) and Pierre Strong (two).

Pierce, one of those 4.6 backs, will find at least one team that won�t allow his inauspicious 40 to be held against him.

�I don�t care about that,� an NFC exec said. �He�s a starter.�

Part 1, WR/TE: Does size matter?

Part 2, OL: Trevor Penning, 'total prick' in trenches, leads class of rear end-kickers

Part 3, QB: Bet on teams in need rolling the dice

RANKING THE RUNNING BACKS
1. BREECE HALL, Iowa State (5-11, 218, 4.42, 1-2): Third-year junior with 30 starts in 36 games. �He�s got kind of a weird, slithering, slashing running style,� one scout said. �He�s not really an attacker. There�s some Le�Veon Bell to him � He�s gets through the line of scrimmage fast, he�s elusive and he has long speed. He�s good enough as a receiver. He�s not going to be dynamite right out of the gate but he�ll be a starter.� Led the position in the vertical jump (40 inches) and tied for the largest hands (9 � inches). �He�s got that natural pick-and-slide style,� a second scout said. �He�s got a chance to be a starter as a first- and second-down guy. Don�t ever think he�ll be great. Don�t ever think he�ll be paid a lot of money.� Finished with 718 carries for 3,941 yards (5.5-yard average) and 50 TDs to go with 82 receptions. His cousin is 49ers great RB Roger Craig. �For a big running back he has good feet through the hole,� said a third scout. �He�s not a stumblebum. He can see it and make in-line cuts. He can drop his weight and accelerate again. I put him ahead of Walker because of his size and vision as a runner.� Scored 21 on the Wonderlic. �He�s just not a natural runner,� a fourth scout said. �He just can�t get out of the backfield. He kind of jumps around. Doesn�t have really good vision or burst. Not strong. Kind of an awkward athlete. If there�s a crease he can get up in there. Even with that he doesn�t have true home-run speed.� From Wichita, Kan.

2. KENNETH WALKER, Michigan State (5-9, 209, 4.44, 1-2): Sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting after finishing second in FBS rushing with 1,636 (6.2) in his first and only season as a Spartan. �Imagine,� one scout said. �He�s not a starter at Wake Forest and he goes to Michigan State and becomes a star. People didn�t know who the f--- he was. Great kid, good family, you�ll never have an issue with him. He�s not the big back but he can play. If you hold up in the Big Ten, you�re going to hold up in the NFL.� Rushed for 579 yards in each of his two seasons as a Demon Deacon. Finished collegiate career with 480 carries for 2,794 (5.8) and 35 TDs. Had just 19 receptions. �Hard runner, physical,� another scout said. �Speed, acceleration, vision and elusiveness. He can play on all downs. Contributes immediately. Needs to improve his pass pro but wasn�t asked to do that much. Day 1 starter. They speak really highly of him.� Ran a much faster 40 than some personnel people expected. �That (4.44) shocked me,� a third scout said. �As a runner, he�s a poor man�s Ray Rice. People questioned Ray Rice�s speed, too, and all he did was produce. I don�t see Kenneth Walker as an elite starting back. You�re winning with a 1A and a 1B usually. I think Kenneth Walker can be a 1B. He has a sneaky ability to break one even though I still don�t see that play speed. Where he�s going to need some work is in the passing game. Just doesn�t have a lot of experience. I don�t think he can play on all three downs; he might be able to graduate to it. He�s a really good red-zone runner because of his instincts and short-area quickness. He scores touchdowns.� Wonderlic of 14. �He�s about as good a football player as you want,� said a fourth scout. �He�s a small target and he�s tiny as a pass blocker. When he gets in a blocking stance he�s 5-3 against a 6-3, 6-4, 6-5, 6-6 defensive end or linebacker and there�s issues. The quarterback doesn�t want to turn around and see some Texas midget going to block the rush end. They feel better with a bigger guy in there. I think he�s more of a second-rounder.� From Arlington, Texas.

3. ISAIAH SPILLER, Texas A&M (6-0 �, 217, 4.62, 2-3): Third-year junior with 29 starts in 35 games. �There�s a little bit of LeSean McCoy to his style,� one scout said. �Really good vision. Really elusive. Got really good feet. Slithery, deceptively strong. Not a great long speed guy but neither was McCoy, and McCoy scored a shitload of touchdowns.� Finished with 541 carries for 2,993 yards (5.5) and 25 TDs along with 74 receptions. Alternated with speedy freshman Devon Achane in 2021. �He�s just a guy,� a second scout said. �Little bit of quickness, little bit of vision. Decent hands. Narrow-based runner gets tackled easily. Not a lot of juice or elusiveness.� Had six career fumbles. �He has a chance to ascend into a starter in time,� said a third scout. �He�s good at a lot of things but he�s not elite in any category.� From Spring, Texas.

4. BRIAN ROBINSON, Alabama (6-1 �, 224, 4.60, 3): Increased his rushing total every year: 165 to 272 to 441 to 483 to 1,343. �Pad-level, extra-yardage guy,� one scout said. �Makes his own hole with no blockers against a linebacker. Can move the chains because of his strength but also has cutback ability. Downhill power with wide speed. Surprisingly fast for that size. Can get the edge quickly. Good patience to find the hole and accelerate on zone plays.� Had to wait his turn behind Bo Scarbrough, Damien Harris, Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris. �They crushed him for five years and he came back for a sixth year,� a second scout said. �Had a pretty decent season but you can�t trust him. Not overly sharp (Wonderlic of 14). Just a runner only.� Finished with 545 carries for 2,704 (5.0) and 29 TDs to go with 52 receptions. �He is what he is,� a third scout said. �He�s a product of that offense. He runs hard. He�s a big guy. He�s got a little bit of speed. He�s not a sure-fire starter. He�s a quality backup.� Born and raised near campus in Tuscaloosa. �Just a run-of-the-mill, straight-line, gets-what�s-blocked kind of runner,� said a fourth scout. �You like the way he runs but he�s just not a supremely talented guy. Fourth round.�

Getty Images
5. JAMES COOK, Georgia (5-11, 204, 4.48, 3): Played 50 games, starting merely six. Played mostly on passing downs behind Zamir White. �They split him out in motion as a receiver,� said one scout. �Average size, but he�s athletic and explosive with acceleration and good speed. He can exploit a crease on inside runs. Can jump cut with quick feet and balance. He�s got the speed to get outside. Sudden in space. Natural hands. Ripped off an 82-yard run against Alabama in 2020. He ran by guys that had pursuit angles on him. His issue is pass protection. He�s not real big.� His brother, Dalvin, is the Vikings� franchise RB. �He gets a lot of play because of it but he�s nowhere near Dalvin Cook,� said a second scout. �He can catch out of the backfield. I can see somebody taking him as a third-down back.� Finished with 230 carries for 1,503 (6.5) and 14 TDs plus 67 catches. �He may not be a true No. 1 running back but as a 1B he can do things in the passing game,� said a third scout. �He�d be a good, solid rotational guy that will make some plays.� From Miami.

6. DAMEON PIERCE, Florida (5-9 �, 224, 4.61, 3): In four seasons he never carried more than 106 times. �When he was in the game, this kid runs downhill with purpose,� said one scout. �He�s got a low center of gravity. He�s got strong leg drive and contact balance. He�s got good vision on inside runs and is real patient on outside runs. He squares up in pass pro and controls the defender. He�s got reliable hands. The big question is top-end speed. I just like the makeup of this guy. He has special-team value. He was on (three) teams. As a minimum, he�s a good No. 2 and possible starter. He�s a banger. He looks similar to James Robinson in Jacksonville. Stocky, just doesn�t have that third gear.� Finished with 329 carries for 1,806 (5.5) and 23 TDs with 45 receptions. Wonderlic of 23 was second highest among the top 13 backs. �He runs with passion and vengeance,� another scout said. �Catches the poo poo out of the ball. Great contact balance.� From Bainbridge, Ga.

7. ZAMIR WHITE, Georgia (5-11 �, 217, 4.46, 3): Fourth-year junior had 78 rushes in 2019 before starting the past two years. �Muscled-up, no-nonsense runner,� said one scout. �Pressed the line of scrimmage quickly, finds a hole and makes decisive cuts. Avoids backfield penetration and gets north and south. Can run through defenders. You saw his speed on some long runs. Has the ability to close out a game in 4-minute by just pounding the rock. Wasn�t widely used in the passing game but showed reliable hands. Scans and shows awareness in pass pro and squares up to the target.� Exited on passing downs for Cook, catching just 17 passes in his career. Finished with 382 carries for 2,043 (5.3) and 25 TDs. Suffered a torn right ACL in November 2017 and a torn left ACL nine months later. �He�s really similar to Brian Robinson,� said another scout. �The concern is this guy has had two ACLs. Tough between-the-tackles guy. Gives you his all. Non-factor in the pass game.� His 10-8 broad jump led the position. �I don�t think he�s anything special,� a third scout said. �He was productive in a high level of comp. I thought his run instincts were off. He didn�t see things quick. But teams are looking for speed and he can run (fast).� From Laurinburg, N.C.

8. JEROME FORD, Cincinnati (5-10 �, 211, 4.49, 3-4): Carried 31 times in 2018-�19 at Alabama before shuffling to Cincinnati. �He sat behind a guy (Gerrid Doaks) that wasn�t as good as him (in 2020) and, when he got a chance, he produced,� one scout said. �He�s a fun player. He�s fast, runs hard, strong. He could play on all three downs right now. He�s not a special No. 1 but he could be a No. 1. Football character�s really good. The position gets pushed down but he�s a second-round talent.� Had a 1,319-yard season in �21 as the Bearcats reached the CFP semifinals. Finished with 318 carries for 1,953 (6.1) and 30 TDs to go with 31 receptions. �He�s got a chance to be a home-run hitter,� another scout said. �He�s got a big-play trait with his speed.� Led the top 25 backs on the Wonderlic with a 28. �I�d take him over Zamir White,� a third scout said. �The run instincts were good but nothing special. He�s got good hands. Not a blocker. He�ll go late 3, at least early 4 with that kind of size and speed.� From Tampa.

9. RACHAAD WHITE, Arizona State (6-0 �, 215, 4.50, 3-4): Redshirted at Division II Nebraska-Kearney in 2017 before toiling for two years at a junior college. Two-year starter for the Sun Devils. �He�s a great receiver,� said one scout. �During the year they alternated him until they realized what they had later on in the season. He can catch the heck out of the ball. Explosive runner with excellent speed.� Caught 43 passes as a senior for a 10.6 average. �His strengths are vision, patience, balance, body control, speed and good hands,� a second scout said. �He has the ability to run routes from different spots. He can work from the backfield or you can line him up wide and he can do receiver stuff.� Finished with 224 carries for 1,426 (6.4) and 20 TDs plus 51 receptions. �He probably was the best back at the Senior Bowl,� a third scout said. �Probably fourth round. Pretty decent player.� From Kansas City.

10. PIERRE STRONG, South Dakota State (5-11 �, 203, 4.39, 4): Redshirted in 2017 before starting 34 of 48 games from 2018-�21. �He ran fast,� one scout said. �In the passing game he has a chance. He�s super productive. When they played up a level (Colorado State, �21) he showed up. There�s a physical skill set there that can be developed.� Ran the fastest 40 of the top 30 backs. �He�s a much better player than James Robinson with Jacksonville was out of that league (Missouri Valley),� a second scout said. �Had some long touchdown runs. Sometimes he just doesn�t hit the hole. He searches, likes to bounce. Effective short receiver. Average pass blocker.� Finished with 631 carries for 4,527 (7.2) and 40 TDs along with 62 receptions. From Little Rock, Ark.

11. HASSAN HASKINS, Michigan (6-1 11/2, 227, no 40, 4-5): Voted the Wolverines� toughest player by his teammates. �Love that guy,� one scout said. �I want him on my team. Now he ain�t a starter but, on the goal-line or when the poo poo gets rough, I want him.� Fourth-year junior. �Workhorse with more quickness and burst than one would expect,� said a second scout. �He has some juke on the second level. He�s physical in his pass protection. Has strong legs to get extra. He has good hands but not a real receiving threat consistently. I would rather have him stay in and block. If he�s fast enough to play on teams he would (make it).� Finished with 452 carries for 2,324 (5.1) and 30 TDs, plus merely 24 catches. Zero fumbles. �We saw him hurdle defenders,� a third scout said. �You�ve got to be an athlete to do that. He�s not a home-run hitter but he plays 4.5s. Catches the ball fine. Only real concern is he�s not very smart, but he works really hard to try to overcome it. I�d take him in the fifth, no questions asked.� From St. Louis. Older brother Maurice Alexander was an NFL safety from 2014-�19. �Just a straight-line guy that ran between the tackles,� a fourth scout said. �I thought he hurt the team. He ran hard, but the small back (Blake Corum) was the one that made plays. He didn�t run (the 40). Buyer beware.�

12. TY CHANDLER, North Carolina (5-11, 203, 4.49, 4-5): Played four years (655 was his rushing high in �19) at Tennessee before transferring to Chapel Hill for his last season. �He had to go to North Carolina to find production,� one scout said. �But Ty�s a really good back. Early on, he might be more of a third-down type guy.� With RBs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter drafted into the NFL, Chandler filled the breach with a 1,092-yard season. �He�s not as good as Michael Carter,� another scout said of the Jets� fourth-round draft choice. �Combination runner-receiver. Probably a fourth-round guy.� Finished with 603 carries for 3,138 (5.2) and 26 TDs to go with 73 receptions. �He and Rachaad White are the two most complete backs,� a third scout said. �He�s the most explosive by far. Made a lot of long runs. Catches the ball well. They ran a lot of quarterback draws with Sam Howell and he leads him inside and outside. Decisive.� From Nashville.

13. TY DAVIS-PRICE, Louisiana State (6-0 �, 219, 4.53, 4-5): Backed up Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the 2019 national title team, split time in �20 and gained 1,003 yards as the starter in �21. �He�s a lesser Hassan Haskins,� one scout said. �He�s a big hammer. Runs hard. Strong. Pretty decent feet. Passing game stuff is a little iffy. Maybe early Day 3.� Third-year junior with 379 carries for 1,744 (4.6) and 15 TDs to go with 28 receptions. �He set the (LSU) record for rushing in a game against Florida (287),� a second scout said. �He was 219 at pro day (211 at the combine) and had a solid workout. Caught the ball well. His personality was good. He had some (off-field) issues there but was never kicked off the team.� From Baton Rouge. �As a lower-rated guy he�d have a chance to develop into kind of what Rhamondre Stevenson is (in New England), that level of player,� a third scout said. �He�s a sleeper.�

OTHERS: Abram Smith, Baylor; Kyren Williams, Notre Dame; ZaQuandre White, South Carolina; Tyler Badie, Missouri; Snoop Conner, Mississippi; Tyler Allgeier, Brigham Young; Keaontay Ingram, Southern California; D�Vonte Price, Florida International; Jashaun Corbin, Florida State; Zonovan Knight, North Carolina State; Tyler Goodson, Iowa; Isaih Pacheco, Rutgers; Trestan Ebner, Baylor; Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma; Max Borghi, Washington State; Bryant Koback, Toledo.

FULLBACKS
1. CAMERON HEYWARD, Michigan State (5-11, 237, 4.73, 6-7): In high school, he played WR, QB, RB and safety while doing the punting. Came up well short with a solid opportunity to start at RB in 2018. Entered the transfer portal in �19 but returned as a backup RB for two seasons. Switched to H-back in �21. �I rejected him off his running back stuff last year,� one scout said. �This year, he played aggressive, he was physical, he had good hands in the pass game. Size will always be his limitation.� Another scout described him as a �hands-catching fullback with a little degree of toughness. He might get drafted.� Finished with 211 carries for 825 (3.9) and five TDs plus 96 receptions. �At the school, they described him as a point guard in a center�s body,� said a third scout. �He doesn�t look that bad but he has a dumpy-looking body. For a fullback he�s got pretty good run skills. What sets him apart is he�s really good in the passing game. If you want a fullback � he�s not a hammer. More of an athlete blocker.� His father was the late RB Craig �Ironhead� Heyward. His brother, Cameron, is the sensational 5-technique for the Steelers. �He helped himself by changing positions, or they helped him by changing him,� a fourth scout said. �He�s become a really interesting player. He can run the ball, run routes, catch the ball and is a decent blocker. He�s not that old-school fullback, which is good because people don�t use old-school fullbacks.� Wonderlic of 15. From Duluth, Ga.

2. JEREMIAH HALL, Oklahoma (6-1 �, 239, 4.91, 7): Redshirted in 2017, backed up in �18 and started 24 of 38 games the past three years. �You�re projecting (to fullback),� said one scout. �You don�t know what kind of a blocker he�ll be. I don�t think he�s a good enough blocker (for fullback). For that, you�ve got to be a really good lead blocker or a dynamic athlete and special-teamer. You might be better off taking a 245-pound linebacker who�s a straight-line guy but runs 4.65, 4.7 and will knock the crap out of you.� Finished with 13 carries for 53 (4.1) and one TD plus 68 receptions. Wonderlic of 26. From Charlotte.

OTHERS: Maxs Tupai, Utah; John Chenal, Wisconsin; Ko Kieft, Minnesota; Clint Ratkovich, Northern Illinois.

THE SKINNY
UNSUNG HERO
Abram Smith, RB, Baylor: Moved from RB to LB in 2019-�20 because of injuries before returning to offense last year and exploding for 1,601 yards (6.2) and 12 TDs. A tough guy with good size (5-11 �, 213), good speed (4.53) and smarts (Wonderlic of 24). Reminded one scout of a smaller Anthony Dixon because of his position and special-teams ability. Had an excellent Senior Bowl game. �Third-day grades but the temperament, the mentality are positive,� said one personnel man.

SCOUTS� NIGHTMARE
Kyren Williams, RB, Notre Dame: Renounced his final two seasons of eligibility after rushing for 1,125 in 2020 and 1,002 in �21. Also returned punts, averaging 10.8 last year. Then Williams (5-9, 199) ran 4.71 at the combine followed by 4.68 at pro day. �I admire the f--- out of him,� one scout said. �He�s a peanut who is tougher than shoe leather. But he�s 4.7.He�s gonna be a free agent.�

SCOUT TO REMEMBER
Rich Snead: One of the least likely looking football executives in the NFL: trim, soft-spoken and unassuming. A Pacific Ocean surfer even into his later years and hailing from San Gabriel, Calif., Snead got his start scouting in the USFL in 1983. His NFL career spanned 30-plus years, including stints with the Chargers, Raiders, Titans, Rams and Jets. His longest run was as the Titans� director of player personnel under coach Jeff Fisher and GM Floyd Reese. Snead got to the office about 5:30 a.m., shut his door and watched college and pro tape endlessly. Fisher remembered an argument over a player between Snead and Rams GM Les Snead (no relation) in which he had to separate them. �That was Rich,� said Fisher. �If he believed in something, he believed in it. He did it because he did the work. When he lost respect for a peer was when that guy didn�t do the work. Rich was so loyal. I trusted Rich. He had an opinion, he voiced it and stood behind it.� According to Fisher, Snead died in March 2021 at Franklin, Tenn., of cancer. He was 65.

# ? Apr 23, 2022 23:25

Chucktesla: Jul 13, 2014

I think I'm becoming more interested in rachaad white even if it doesn't sound like there's much of a difference in his game and like Austin Ekeler's. Austin Ekeler and a bigger, somewhat less powerful Austin Ekeler that isn't as good in pass pro sound like an alright running back room

# ? Apr 24, 2022 00:00

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

https://twitter.com/Schultz_Report/status/1517899277065981953

My dream of Jameson to the Chiefs fizzling

*they were unrealistic to begin with

this would be great though

to take Kayvon Thibodeaux if he falls

kiimo fucked around with this message at 03:40 on Apr 24, 2022

# ? Apr 24, 2022 03:30

BlindSite: Feb 8, 2009

kiimo posted:

https://twitter.com/Schultz_Report/status/1517899277065981953

My dream of Jameson to the Chiefs fizzling

*they were unrealistic to begin with

this would be great though

to take Kayvon Thibodeaux if he falls

I cant see anyway the panthers pull the trigger on that unless every LT and Willis are off the board tbh.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 03:44

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

kiimo posted:

My dream of Jameson to the Chiefs fizzling

*they were unrealistic to begin with

I fully expect the top 4 receivers (Wilson, Williams, London, Olave) to all be gone before pick #20.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 03:49

Cavauro: Jan 9, 2008

The NFL draft starts on Thursday, the 28th of April.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 04:05

Diva Cupcake: Aug 15, 2005

SKULL.GIF posted:

I fully expect the top 4 receivers (Wilson, Williams, London, Olave) to all be gone before pick #20.

Same tbh. There�s a decent chance 2 of them go top 10 with 6-7 in the round.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 11:54

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Diva Cupcake posted:

Same tbh. There�s a decent chance 2 of them go top 10 with 6-7 in the round.

The real wild card is if there's a run on QBs with teams reaching or trading up (or both) for them. Even 2-3 QBs in the top 20 would push down the board and trigger some teams trading up to grab a falling prospect.

Nearly every mock I've looked at has more or less assumed QB won't really be looked at until late in the first.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 16:13

Woozie66: Sep 8, 2009; I'll wait for the next era

kiimo posted:

this would be great though

to take Kayvon Thibodeaux if he falls

Gotta get Baker some O Line help, I like it.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 16:19

BiggerBoat: Sep 26, 2007; Don't you tell me my business again.

SKULL.GIF posted:

The real wild card is if there's a run on QBs with teams reaching or trading up (or both) for them. Even 2-3 QBs in the top 20 would push down the board and trigger some teams trading up to grab a falling prospect.

Nearly every mock I've looked at has more or less assumed QB won't really be looked at until late in the first.

I think Baker is better than anyone on this draft board and he's still young. I'd imagine most teams would LOVE if there were a run on QB's and some team was dumb enough to reach for one of these guys. If Willis or Pickett falls to you, your team has a need and with no real big holes to fill, then sure grab him up but I doubt that the usual trades that are there for teams hunting down a QB are going to be there next week.

And if they are, a team would be crazy not to take that and trade back.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 17:38

Ches Neckbeard: Dec 3, 2005; You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

He's 27. Young relative to like Brady, Ryan and Rodgers

# ? Apr 24, 2022 17:48

wandler20: Nov 13, 2002; How many Championships?

Ches Neckbeard posted:

He's 27. Young relative to like Brady, Ryan and Rodgers

27 is young for a QB in 2022.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 18:10

Ches Neckbeard: Dec 3, 2005; You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

wandler20 posted:

27 is young for a QB in 2022.

We often talk about youth as a player with room to grow is what I'm getting at. How much is a 27yo going to grow as a QB in those terms?

# ? Apr 24, 2022 18:25

YOLOsubmarine: Oct 19, 2004; When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Ches Neckbeard posted:

We often talk about youth as a player with room to grow is what I'm getting at. How much is a 27yo going to grow as a QB in those terms?

I not saying Baker is going to be that guy, but so much growth at QB is mental and that definitely continues to develop into their 30s and even 40s. Tom Brady is playing as well as he ever has and it�s not because he�s getting stronger and faster. Mahomes is 26 and has been in the league five years and we saw him have to learn and adjust this year as defenses started scheming to take away the big plays and he struggled to take the easy stuff.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 19:09

sharknado slashfic: Jun 24, 2011

The Ravens are going to draft a player or trade back

# ? Apr 24, 2022 19:55

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Baker hides his concussions and even though his labrum tear is in a non throwing arm you can't exactly play that great when one half of your shoulder complex screams in unimaginable pain when someone touches it. Not to mention his knee injuries has sapped his speed.

Still better than any QB in this draft though lol

# ? Apr 24, 2022 20:08

The Puppy Bowl: Jan 31, 2013; A dog, in the house.

*woof*

sharknado slashfic posted:

The Ravens are going to draft a player or trade back

The exact kind of bold draft strategy that makes the Ravens a top tier franchise.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 20:23

Rectal Placenta: Feb 25, 2011

Cavauro posted:

The NFL draft starts on Thursday, the 28th of April.

About frickin' time imho

# ? Apr 24, 2022 20:50

AndrewP: Apr 21, 2010

sharknado slashfic posted:

The Ravens are going to draft a player or trade back

Trading back would be fun just for the novelty of adding more mid round picks to the 7 third and fourth rounders they already have.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 20:56

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

BiggerBoat posted:

Pretty fun article ranking every team's draft success over a ten year period

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33297949/nfl-draft-which-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32

Okay I recognize that the Seahawks have molded some great late round talent. But I feel like something is borked in the formula if they are the best drafting team in football. That just doesn't jive. But from the list it looks like it's pretty much just Wilson who did that. They hit a big one but the last several years they've been probably the worst drafting team in the league.

It might be cool to trim the years a bit, move it up to like 2015 or 2016 is the start year.

Doltos posted:

https://www.golongtd.com/p/part-4-r...iy_hEeXJr4k&s=r

Outside of the top guys, I like Dameon Pierce a lot despite the low 40. That's not his game, he's more of Devin Singletary type who breaks tackles inside and maximizes runs in cramped conditions with excellent contact balance, low running style, etc. The fact is that most run plays in the NFL are not wide open. Of course it's nice to have the guy who can break one but you also need guys who can maximize what's available on tough inside carries when mostly you just need the first down. Which actually is the reason I prefer Walker over Hall because I think he does both of those things extremely well.

I also really like Keaontay Ingram even though he doesn't appear on that top list and I can't exactly explain why. I just like watching him run the ball and think he could be a pretty decent player. He catches a good number of passes and looks good doing it. More NFL-sized than a lot of them. Seems faster than his 40 (which at 4.53 isn't even bad). And I just like his feel for the game I guess

Play fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Apr 24, 2022

# ? Apr 24, 2022 22:51

Silly Burrito: Nov 27, 2007; SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

wandler20 posted:

27 is young for a QB in 2022.

Somewhere Brandon Weeden sheds a tear.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 23:49

The Puppy Bowl: Jan 31, 2013; A dog, in the house.

*woof*

Play posted:

Okay I recognize that the Seahawks have molded some great late round talent. But I feel like something is borked in the formula if they are the best drafting team in football. That just doesn't jive. But from the list it looks like it's pretty much just Wilson who did that. They hit a big one but the last several years they've been probably the worst drafting team in the league.

That's the same story for everyone. The Chiefs draft strength came mostly from Mahomes. The Ravens mostly from Lamar. It's about getting a top 5 QB to build your team around for a decade plus. All the rest is gravy. If you can get that QB outside a top 5 pick you're doing great.

# ? Apr 24, 2022 23:50

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

The Puppy Bowl posted:

That's the same story for everyone. The Chiefs draft strength came mostly from Mahomes. The Ravens mostly from Lamar. It's about getting a top 5 QB to build your team around for a decade plus. All the rest is gravy. If you can get that QB outside a top 5 pick you're doing great.

I guess that makes sense, and it shows something for sure but for me what I'd like to see in a GM is consistency, and consistently getting the better players from each phase of the draft. In terms of raw value, it makes sense. But you could also say they got extremely lucky once and that's mostly it (not referring to Hawks, Chiefs or Ravens in particular I do think the Ravens have been very strong drafters and the Chiefs as well.

Would be cool to come up with some kind of alternate formula to target that consistency. I might be able to come up with something but I'm probably too lazy. Although perhaps you could just remove the quarterbacks from this list or nerf their value and that might work.

# ? Apr 25, 2022 00:03

BiggerBoat: Sep 26, 2007; Don't you tell me my business again.

Play posted:

Okay I recognize that the Seahawks have molded some great late round talent. But I feel like something is borked in the formula if they are the best drafting team in football. That just doesn't jive. But from the list it looks like it's pretty much just Wilson who did that. They hit a big one but the last several years they've been probably the worst drafting team in the league.

It might be cool to trim the years a bit, move it up to like 2015 or 2016 is the start year.

I'm not here saying the measurements they're using are on point or not. I just found it a good read and figured I'd share. And I think a full decade is fair. You can look at some of this and see how certain teams just flat out refuse to improve despite having their pick of the litter for young talent year after year and how other teams maximize the choices they have.

Any metric that doesn't list Jacksonville at #32 has to be loving broken on some level though given how many times they've drafted in the top 5 with so god damned little to show for it. I've posted it a few times in the AFC South thread but the amount of talent they've passed over in the last decade is astonishing and you almost gotta go out of your way to gently caress up that bad. Even the players they've hit on wind up playing somewhere else. The Jets I think might be the only team that comes close to blowing so many high picks.

Certain teams just figure it out.

And I just kind of get a kick out of looking back and seeing how full of poo poo almost everyone is and realizing how little any of us really know about these dudes, even the people getting paid to know it along with all the "experts". Some of that "redoing the draft knowing what we know now" stuff and wondering "what if?" is a lot of fun to read. The Eagles trading UP to get Jalen Reagor when Justin Jefferson was right there or Aaron Rodgers sliding to a late 1st and poo poo like that.

# ? Apr 25, 2022 00:20

BlindSite: Feb 8, 2009

Wasnt drew Brees kind of poo poo until 27?

# ? Apr 25, 2022 00:54

Ornery and Hornery: Oct 22, 2020

Play posted:

I guess that makes sense, and it shows something for sure but for me what I'd like to see in a GM is consistency, and consistently getting the better players from each phase of the draft. In terms of raw value, it makes sense. But you could also say they got extremely lucky once and that's mostly it (not referring to Hawks, Chiefs or Ravens in particular I do think the Ravens have been very strong drafters and the Chiefs as well.

Would be cool to come up with some kind of alternate formula to target that consistency. I might be able to come up with something but I'm probably too lazy. Although perhaps you could just remove the quarterbacks from this list or nerf their value and that might work.

You are correct. Seahawks have been poo poo at drafting for basically a decade at this point. They had a run of 2.5 incredible drafts. Coincidentally, their Senior Personnel Executive Scot McCloughan was with Seattle Seahawks from 2010�2013.

:iiam:

# ? Apr 25, 2022 01:03

Grittybeard: Mar 29, 2010; Bad, very bad!

BlindSite posted:

Wasnt drew Brees kind of poo poo until 27?

He went ballistic at 27, but he was pretty good at 25.

His first year he sat, second he was...well okish for a new QB. The thing was his third year looked awful, that's what made the Chargers ~~draft~~ technically trade for Rivers. Then after another couple of years he went to the Saints and hooked up with Payton.

I quite honestly don't know what the Chargers would have done if he didn't have the shoulder injury, I mean he was trending up pretty hard but...well that shoulder. We could be living in a different NFL history one way or the other if that never happened.

# ? Apr 25, 2022 01:08

a neat cape: Feb 22, 2007; Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

Grittybeard posted:

He went ballistic at 27, but he was pretty good at 25.

His first year he sat, second he was...well okish for a new QB. The thing was his third year looked awful, that's what made the Chargers ~~draft~~ technically trade for Rivers. Then after another couple of years he went to the Saints and hooked up with Payton.

I quite honestly don't know what the Chargers would have done if he didn't have the shoulder injury, I mean he was trending up pretty hard but...well that shoulder. We could be living in a different NFL history one way or the other if that never happened.

There's no doubt in my mind that if Brees doesn't get hurt in 2005, he's the QB going forward and Rivers would have been traded.

The Chargers also probably win the superbowl in 2006 in that timeline since the weak link of that team was Rivers, but I doubt Brees turns into the stat monster like he did in New Orleans. His QB coach at that point was Brian Schottenheimer and I doubt Brian leaves for the jets if Brees stays in San Diego.

# ? Apr 25, 2022 06:10

Diva Cupcake: Aug 15, 2005

There appears to be a legit chance Travon Walker goes #1.

https://twitter.com/PFF_Anthony/status/1518548858502094850

# ? Apr 25, 2022 12:29

shirts and skins: Jun 25, 2007; Good morning!

Peter King hearing to expect a "surprise" at #1.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/ubjsxt/king_i_heard_out_of_jacksonville_that_we_should/

# ? Apr 25, 2022 13:35

Professor Funk: Aug 4, 2008; WE ALL KNOW WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN

Who would even be a surprise at this point? There have been plenty of rumors about Walker, Neal, and Ickey in that spot already. One of the CBs?

# ? Apr 25, 2022 13:48

shirts and skins: Jun 25, 2007; Good morning!

Professor Funk posted:

Who would even be a surprise at this point? There have been plenty of rumors about Walker, Neal, and Ickey in that spot already. One of the CBs?

I assume it's going to be Walker, since the consensus likely pick has been Hutchinson all along and most people aren't paying attention at the level of people in this thread.

# ? Apr 25, 2022 14:03

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# ? Jun 2, 2024 23:25

Cool Post Beg: Mar 6, 2008; DADDY MAGIC

Professor Funk posted:

Who would even be a surprise at this point? There have been plenty of rumors about Walker, Neal, and Ickey in that spot already. One of the CBs?

Punt God

# ? Apr 25, 2022 14:04

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > NFL Draft Thread 2022

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