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Baronash posted:Exactly who has cause to sue the government for forgiving student loan debts? Who is the injured party in this hypothetical? I don't know who those folks are but a lot of us have noted that it was something he promised and has done nothing about. He's probably going to have to fight harder than this to get the turnout he needs, but it's a start. Harold Fjord fucked around with this message at 12:19 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 12:16
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Normy posted:With polls showing dems as popular as ever with college educated voters, but losing ground with non college educated voters, would it make much difference electorally if he forgave student debt? As much as the twitter left loves to say if Dems just cancel student debt they'll win all elections, in practice it'll probably lose votes. Young people with debt will get what they want and not vote. Blue collar workers will further realize dems are a party for the elite. People who just paid off their debt will probably be annoyed and may/may not vote. Another major cash injection will be played up by the media for even more inflation concerns to middle America.
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Apr 27, 2022 12:46
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:As much as the twitter left loves to say if Dems just cancel student debt they'll win all elections, in practice it'll probably lose votes. Young people with debt will get what they want and not vote. Blue collar workers will further realize dems are a party for the elite. People who just paid off their debt will probably be annoyed and may/may not vote. Another major cash injection will be played up by the media for even more inflation concerns to middle America. This sort of looks like an argument that applies to doing anything for anyone ever. Everyone you helped will not vote and everyone you didn't will not vote. Easy done. Not doing anything certainly doesn't seem effective as a strategy. Maybe if Biden fulfils one of his promises, other groups will be more confident if he also starts working on what he promised them. It gives credibility.
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Apr 27, 2022 13:08
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The Sean posted:"As a presidential candidate, Biden expressed his support for wide-scale student loan cancellation." I had interpreted your post as Biden promising to cancel all student debt, not just $10k. Especially because of your second line about "wiping". Sorry if that was a mis-interpretation on my part. I should have found a better/more clear though, I was just trying to find a source before I went to sleep and I thought I had read that one before. Kalit fucked around with this message at 13:15 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 13:13
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:As much as the twitter left loves to say if Dems just cancel student debt they'll win all elections, in practice it'll probably lose votes. Young people with debt will get what they want and not vote. Blue collar workers will further realize dems are a party for the elite. People who just paid off their debt will probably be annoyed and may/may not vote. Another major cash injection will be played up by the media for even more inflation concerns to middle America. wait do you think college grads are the elite man i didn't realize the 17 bucks an hour i make with my b.s. gave me that kind of clout, fuckin a
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Apr 27, 2022 13:56
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A real good way to sell people without student loans on debt forgiveness would be to bundle it with another round of stimulus checks. That way nobody would feel like they're getting nothing out of the deal. And sure, the media would try to frame it as something that is making inflation worse but on the other hand people really like to be given money. It would never happen because it's clear we're never getting anything like the stimulus checks anytime in the near future, of course (which is a shame since normalizing the idea of stimulus checks would be a tiny but significant step towards UBI).
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Apr 27, 2022 14:03
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Harold Fjord posted:This sort of looks like an argument that applies to doing anything for anyone ever. Everyone you helped will not vote and everyone you didn't will not vote. Easy done. Not doing anything certainly doesn't seem effective as a strategy. Maybe if Biden fulfils one of his promises, other groups will be more confident if he also starts working on what he promised them. It gives credibility. Although I don't expect a large electoral benefit, I'm glad the administration is finally (possibly) pursuing student loan forgiveness. It appears that they are taking the issue a lot more seriously than they indicated in 2021 when they set that initial payment resumption date. Yes, it's somewhat annoying that it's taking so long, but on the other hand, I still haven't made any payments on federal student loans under the Biden administration. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 14:08 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 14:05
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For anyone who didn't bother to read the Forbes article, the argument is built entirely around a single Biden tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/joebiden/status/1241869418981920769 And it goes that the words "we should" are a vague expression of support and not a promise to actually do anything: "ho hum. Somebody should do something that would be nice." This argument is I think technically correct. But Forbes' conclusion, that Biden never promised at any point to forgive anyone's loans, depends on another unstated premise: that Biden never at any point ever said anything about student loans outside of this one single tweet. Unfortunately for Forbes, it's not 20 years ago where online videos are rare because everyone has 56k modems, so it is quite a simple matter to expose this dishonesty by simply linking video of Biden saying "we are going to knock $10,000 off this generation's student loans" and sadly there isn't really any honest or convincing way to argue that "we are going to do X" isn't a promise or commitment to do X. I suppose if we wanted to be contrarian for the fun of it, we could pretend we're very silly people and try arguing that presidential campaigns work on Disney's Aladdin rules and it doesn't count as a real campaign promise unless you say the magic words "I promise" VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 14:12
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DEEP STATE PLOT posted:wait do you think college grads are the elite This is kind of like the "I don't have white privilege, because I had to work for everything/I'm poor" situation. Only about 1/3 of Americans get a college degree and having a college degree - any degree - means you earn about $1.2 million more over the course of your lifetime and have a 75% lower chance of being unemployed for a significant period of time in your life. Not everyone with a degree does amazing, but people with a degree literally are "the elite" in that they are 1/3 of the population and perform significantly better in every financial metric than people with no degree.     
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Apr 27, 2022 14:13
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DEEP STATE PLOT posted:wait do you think college grads are the elite I don't think that, but a good chunk of middle America absolutely does think that. What's your degree and career?
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Apr 27, 2022 14:23
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Kalit posted:I had interpreted your post as Biden promising to cancel all student debt, not just $10k. Especially because of your second line about "wiping". Sorry if that was a mis-interpretation on my part. This is student debt cancellation for a huge amount of borrowers. Xombie fucked around with this message at 14:41 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 14:36
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:As much as the twitter left loves to say if Dems just cancel student debt they'll win all elections, in practice it'll probably lose votes. Young people with debt will get what they want and not vote. Blue collar workers will further realize dems are a party for the elite. People who just paid off their debt will probably be annoyed and may/may not vote. Another major cash injection will be played up by the media for even more inflation concerns to middle America. I'm definitely not part of the "twitter left", am not a "young person", and my vote is contingent on student loan forgiveness. You seem to be in the train of thought where "millennials" are people in their 20's when in reality it's people like me, in their 30's, with a kid and a mortgage. There are not even polls backing up the assertion that student loan forgiveness is a losing issue. No one has paid student loans for two years and it hasn't resulted in any negative consequences. The pushback against student loan forgiveness is a fiction created by loan companies and inserted into the public dialog. The idea that you can't give anyone anything positive, lest you piss off the people who don't benefit from it but aren't harmed in any way by it is asinine and never actually achieves winning electorally. The Democrats aren't restarting student loans because the payment pause has created an economic bubble in an already teetering economy and suddenly pulling purchasing power from college grads in their 30's when there's massive inflation and housing costs are going astronomical is going to have dire economic consequences. They aren't saying it, because it means they're in charge of a weak economy, but it's the truth. Xombie fucked around with this message at 14:47 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 14:41
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:I don't think that, but a good chunk of middle America absolutely does think that. What's your degree and career? Ok but do you have any breakdowns of whether those voters currently might possibly vote for Biden either way or ranking their concerns?
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Apr 27, 2022 14:41
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:Young people with debt will get what they want and not vote. I keep thinking about this and I think you've just inadvertently hit on the key to understanding Democratic careerist politics. I think they might actually really believe that they mustn't do too good of a job as public servants because if they fix too many problems too well then there will be no need to reelect them. Therefore the key to lifetime power is apparently to dangle solutions year after year that will never come to pass, like dangling a carrot in front of a mule. What I find interesting then is how much anger there is over people, especially younger people and poorer people, becoming disillusioned and believing that all politicians are liars and that Democrats can't do anything to improve their conditions even if they wanted to. Isn't that the very mindset they're deliberately cultivating? I don't get that part.
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Apr 27, 2022 14:43
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The news about Biden's student loan decision came out last night, so some Republicans didn't get a chance to jump on it until now. But, a whole lot of them decided to comment today and most of them are against it and confirming that they will support a legal challenge. https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1519292884314431490 quote:GOP senator says proposal is ‘an insult’ to Americans who pay their debts quote:Mitch McConnell says that Biden's proposed student debt relief is an "illegal, unconstitutional, and irresponsible bailout of high-income Americans at the cost of working class Americans." https://twitter.com/TomCottonAR/status/1519041185880412160 quote:Rep. Virginia Foxx, the top Republican on the House education committee, called it "outrageous," adding that she worried it was "setting the stage for blanket loan forgiveness." quote:Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina said in a statement that the Biden administration "wants to have their cake and eat it, too." https://twitter.com/DrewHolden360/status/1519037786933891074
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Apr 27, 2022 14:48
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:As much as the twitter left loves to say if Dems just cancel student debt they'll win all elections, in practice it'll probably lose votes. Young people with debt will get what they want and not vote. Blue collar workers will further realize dems are a party for the elite. People who just paid off their debt will probably be annoyed and may/may not vote. Another major cash injection will be played up by the media for even more inflation concerns to middle America. Mellow Seas posted:It kind of is an argument that applies to doing anything for anyone ever. Which, of course, is not a reason to never do anything for anyone, but it is a political reality. In today's environment, pretty much anything a leader does these days will be absolutely reviled by between 45% and 55% of the population - and if it's not divisive off the bat, partisan media will make sure that it is. That's why we're in year 5 of the President having a 40% approval rating, and year... I dunno, 17? of approval ratings no higher than the low 50s. These are just big piles of assumptions on how the world works that just end in the best action is to always do nothing. We're not going to passive our way out of this and at some point we need to do things that fix these problems. It's also just confirming that the way the right thinks about the world is correct if we're constantly catering to what they think. Spend time educating people on why these are actually the right decisions instead of deciding you can't do it because some ignorant bigot might get mad.
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Apr 27, 2022 14:49
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Here's an article from April 13 in The Hill where Schumer talks about loan forgiveness. I gotta give big props to the guy for not dropping this. The Hill posted:Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) told activists on Wednesday that President Biden and his senior advisers are warming up to the idea of forgiving student debt, insisting they are closer to pulling the trigger “than ever before.” This of course led to Biden talking about forgiveness with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus this week, so it seems like this just isn't a whisper campaign from Schumer and his allies but rather something that Biden is seriously exploring. I wonder if the latest round of "I'm a giant shithead who will never help you" confessions from Manchin have made Biden more keen on the idea, as it might be pretty much the only thing he can really do to help people this year.
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Apr 27, 2022 14:51
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Gumball Gumption posted:These are just big piles of assumptions on how the world works that just end in the best action is to always do nothing. (e: "Doing nothing" is also reviled by 45-55% of the population, you know.) VitalSigns posted:I keep thinking about this and I think you've just inadvertently hit on the key to understanding Democratic careerist politics. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 14:57 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 14:53
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Gumball Gumption posted:These are just big piles of assumptions on how the world works that just end in the best action is to always do nothing. We're not going to passive our way out of this and at some point we need to do things that fix these problems. It's also just confirming that the way the right thinks about the world is correct if we're constantly catering to what they think. Spend time educating people on why these are actually the right decisions instead of deciding you can't do it because some ignorant bigot might get mad. As well I feel like the argument that we mustn't risk upsetting the applecart with action would be stronger if Biden were flying high on skyrocketing approval ratings and Democrats were on course to cruise to healthy midterm wins. As it is he's nearly as unpopular as Trump and the administration is already bracing for a Republican takeover and the avalanche of partisan congressional investigations it will bring, so ya know seems like whatever they've been doing up til now ain't working great and therefore arguments that the safest path is to just keep on keeping on with how things are ought to merit a skeptical eyebrow raise at the very least. Idk if I noticed my boat were about to go over a waterfall and smash to pieces on the rocks below spraying the bodies of congressional campaigns all over the riverbank, continuing on the course that brought me here seems like the least safe thing I could possibly do. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 15:03 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 15:00
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Supporting candidates like this are why the Dems will continue to have issues getting anything passed https://twitter.com/ryanlcooper/status/1519312659849523201?s=21&t=1GhzdG8Z7Jk_0xCyNsiFYg
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Apr 27, 2022 15:01
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The news about Biden's student loan decision came out last night, so some Republicans didn't get a chance to jump on it until now. But, a whole lot of them decided to comment today and most of them are against it and confirming that they will support a legal challenge. So much outrage from the right on having taxpayers foot the bill for "the rich"'s loans. Of course, they were all outraged when Desantis basically did the same thing with Disney, right? ... right?
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Apr 27, 2022 15:16
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The thought about all of that is so vacuous and narrow and is also really old fashioned, boomer-adjacent thinking. What about the blue collar person? Some blue collar jobs require a college degree. What about the truck driver? Maybe they went to college and left, but have student loan debt. Maybe they have kids who have to take out student loan debt. What about people who don't have college degrees? That does not mean they don't have massive student loan debt. They may also have family/friends with student loan debt. What about the person who already paid their debt? Who cares. If they get that upset that it somehow stops them from voting dem then they were barely on board with what the party to want to do anyways. I also find it really weird that so much dialog is about "what if someone gets mad?" But what about if some voters are happy and gain real or false belief to trust in voting Dem? How is that rarely brought up? Even better: what if we don't give a poo poo about people who get upset at wiping student loan debt because it is a good thing to do?
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Apr 27, 2022 15:17
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You can argue about electoral impact, but the truth is that we really have no idea. There hasn't been a singular direct cash equivalent transfer of this size and scope done executively before. There's also a billion different confounding factors: - There's evidence that once a goal is achieved, political mobilization and voting around that goal collapse. - There's also evidence that general economic wellbeing or sense of stability/security promotes voting in favor of the incumbent. - There's no real comparison or baseline to use for how that would impact people's sense of economic wellbeing. Since they haven't been paying them for two years, there won't be a dramatic singular impact on their budget, even though it would be a very large direct cash-equivalent transfer. - All the fundamentals and electoral history show that the President's party gets wiped out in their first midterm. Combined with gerrymandering and natural geographic distribution of Republican voters that gives them an advantage in the Senate, the Republicans would likely do very well no matter what. So, you can blame anything that happened prior to the election as a "reason" for the election or as "proof" it did nothing, but it may have - there's just no way to know 100% for sure. - The primary beneficiaries of the policy are also the group most likely to sit out midterms. So, even if they do increase in turnout, it may be relative to a very small base amount (ex: roughly 12% of Americans have student loans, they vote 60/40 D/R and they have 10% midterm turnout, and this forgiveness causes a massive 50% increase in turnout among that group. That 50% increase of that voting block would result in about a 0.8% net increase in total vote share for Democrats nationally - hard to measure against all the other variables!) The important thing to look at is the public policy aspect. They should forgive a certain amount from a public policy perspective. It's not the perfect social spending policy for economic equality. It is a regressive payment, but even though it overwhelmingly benefits wealthier and whiter borrowers in the aggregate, it also disproportionately helps minority borrowers (though, it does not disproportionately benefit the overall minority populations) and the money is not a major economic loss for the federal government. The feds will still get tax income from some remaining loans and new student loans, so they won't have to find a new funding source for Medicaid expansion right away. If they ever reform student loans or college financing in general, they can include a new source of money for Medicaid as well. So, it makes sense to do so from a public policy perspective and hope that it translates to a political win (it might not! Or it maybe it will, but it will be impossible to accurately measure! Who knows? That's why you can't base the policy entirely around assumed political benefits.) Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 15:22
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Democrats seem to be absolutely terrified that someone might be mad at them, and have no comprehension that someone might actually think well of them for doing something that benefits them personally. Also, the people Democrats are afraid of being mad at them are generally already the ones literally calling for an excuse to shoot Democrats dead in the street.
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Apr 27, 2022 15:22
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An answer to the the Republican bullshit line of "forgiving debt of the financial elites and leaving all us working class folk behind" would be something like saying "Oh, yeah, that does look bad. OK college is now more years of high school everyone gets it and the current predatory education system we have can go gently caress off so things get better for people who aren't already a billionaire." This sort of example impossible of course, we're not allowed to fix problems in this country for a variety of reasons. As long as actual solutions are impossible the public will keep getting served warmed-over dog turds instead. Republicans will continue to be able to sling duplicitous bullshit that stokes the outrage of nothing getting fixed, and their lies will be close enough to truthiness that the emotional weight of their argument plows right on through lanyard class idiot "well akshually" counter arguments.
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Apr 27, 2022 15:23
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I can say for certain that there's at least registered voter that whatever Biden offers for student loan forgiveness it's a day late, a dollar short, and doesn't change the fact that Biden digitally penetrated Tara Reade without her consent.
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Apr 27, 2022 15:25
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Democrats seem to be absolutely terrified that someone might be mad at them, and have no comprehension that someone might actually think well of them for doing something that benefits them personally. (In the case of student loans, I would accept "Joe Biden") Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 15:29
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Mellow Seas posted:Chuck Schumer and Elizabeth Warren and Ayanna Presley are Democrats and they've been pounding the forgiveness drum for 15 months straight, so maybe "Democrats" isn't the category you're looking for here. Democrat is accurate but isn't precise. the subset of democrats that are actively working on it seems to be smaller than those that aren't so it's a semantics game. I would love to drop even 10K of my student loans, but I am not hopeful.
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Apr 27, 2022 15:34
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Xombie posted:I'm definitely not part of the "twitter left", am not a "young person", and my vote is contingent on student loan forgiveness. You seem to be in the train of thought where "millennials" are people in their 20's when in reality it's people like me, in their 30's, with a kid and a mortgage. Your last two paragraphs are directly contradicting each other. No negative consequences of forgiving loans but *just pausing* loan payments created a bubble and a cause of inflation? The Sean posted:The thought about all of that is so vacuous and narrow and is also really old fashioned, boomer-adjacent thinking. To them it isn't a good thing to do. To put it in a different perspective for you, are you happy when the wealthy get tax cuts? Do you feel good when corporations and the rich get big government payouts because its helping somebody and doing something good for them? Or do you feel maybe a little cheated and think that its unfair?
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Apr 27, 2022 15:37
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Democrat is accurate but isn't precise. the subset of democrats that are actively working on it seems to be smaller than those that aren't so it's a semantics game. A lot of people didn't think they would extend the moratorium, either. It seems very possible that forgiveness is something they just penciled in for summer/fall 2022 to get a midterms boost (although as Leon pointed out with some numbers, it's unlikely to be very big, and might not exist), or it might be something that they're exploring because their legislative agenda has come up short and they're looking for an easy win with at least some voters. I think it's possible that originally they wanted to resume payments before giving forgiveness, to increase the salience to beneficiaries. But there hasn't been a good environment to restart them, and probably won't be this year, so maybe they're just gonna pull the trigger. Honestly the fact that the Democrats are pretty much assured of losing the House is an argument for giving the forgiveness, because it will help people, and the worst-case electoral consequences might be something like five extra Republicans in swing districts, all of whom would be vulnerable in '24. (And it's also possible that it could help to a similar degree.) Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 15:49 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 15:46
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:To them it isn't a good thing to do. To put it in a different perspective for you, are you happy when the wealthy get tax cuts? Do you feel good when corporations and the rich get big government payouts because its helping somebody and doing something good for them? Or do you feel maybe a little cheated and think that its unfair? You didn't address the real content of scenarios that I brought up--very real scenarios. I'll be happy to answer your questions if you directly engage with what I wrote that you quoted. I gave reasons why it would be a good thing to do in their perspectives. You wrote "to them it isn't a good thing to do" with nothing to directly answer why my "to them it is a good thing" is wrong. I'm not sure if you read what I wrote. The only thing you post might be replying to is the assholes who would be upset--which isn't even all of the people who already paid their debt. Edit: unless you're saying that the truck driver with student loan debt wouldn't be happy because... they'll feel cheated? If so you're really going to have to unpack that logic for me, please. The Sean fucked around with this message at 16:35 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 15:53
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Mellow Seas posted:Chuck Schumer and Elizabeth Warren and Ayanna Presley are Democrats and they've been pounding the forgiveness drum for 15 months straight, so maybe "Democrats" isn't the category you're looking for here. Also members of the base who want to own the "Twitter Left".
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Apr 27, 2022 16:00
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:People who just paid off their debt will probably be annoyed and may/may not vote. Do you happen to have a source for this, or is it just something that you think might happen? Everyone I have ever spoken to and/or read about with current or former student loan debt has been in favor of getting rid of it entirely, regardless of how much they've paid off themselves.
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Apr 27, 2022 16:06
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bird food bathtub posted:An answer to the the Republican bullshit line of "forgiving debt of the financial elites and leaving all us working class folk behind" would be something like saying "Oh, yeah, that does look bad. OK college is now more years of high school everyone gets it and the current predatory education system we have can go gently caress off so things get better for people who aren't already a billionaire." This sort of example impossible of course, we're not allowed to fix problems in this country for a variety of reasons. I mean, the plan was to have two years of community college be free, which would have included trade programs. It's honestly a shame that the free tuition plan fell apart.
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Apr 27, 2022 16:10
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Kith posted:Do you happen to have a source for this, or is it just something that you think might happen? Everyone I have ever spoken to and/or read about with current or former student loan debt has been in favor of getting rid of it entirely, regardless of how much they've paid off themselves. There are isolated people who will say "I just paid those for the last two years for nothing?!" and get mad, but I think there would be a larger number of people without loans who recognize it as good policy and want to reward it.
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Apr 27, 2022 16:10
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I had to put two semesters of my wife's college costs on a credit card because she got accepted so fast we couldn't apply for any kind of federal student loan and if Biden wipes out that 10k for others but not me I'll be slightly peeved but it's not going to make me vote for a republican, that's crazy.
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Apr 27, 2022 16:12
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Kith posted:Do you happen to have a source for this, or is it just something that you think might happen? Everyone I have ever spoken to and/or read about with current or former student loan debt has been in favor of getting rid of it entirely, regardless of how much they've paid off themselves. It's anecdotal, but I've seen exactly one person get very angry about student loan debt, because she didn't want her tax dollars subsidizing other people's education after she took longer to get through college without debt. Her husband is an MD. It took everything I had to not remind her that her husband's residency was paid for through medicaid taxes.
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Apr 27, 2022 16:12
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Mellow Seas posted:Yeah, it seems likely to me that most opposition will be from the ideological right wing. Who, of course, don't vote for Democrats anyway. I suppose it's possible that some will be motivated by forgiveness, but it's pretty hard to imagine somebody being motivated by something that has no direct effect on them. (Although, uhhh... I dunno, that's kind of how culture war works, isn't it?) Does polling bear this out? I hear a lot of pushback from local polling and through conversations with people that unless they have loans, they are meh on average with a small but vocal population bitching about fairness. I would love to be wrong about this as my family is deep in the student debt hole, but I always feel unless everyone gets something, it never goes anywhere. This is at least why the unilateral 10k wipe seems so attractive to me, I’m looking for something, anything.
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Apr 27, 2022 16:16
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Does anyone know of any polling/less scientific data gathering for high school students’ opinions on current student loan forgiveness? I’m unsure if polling ever happens with underage individuals, but I’m curious on how that would look. On a quick Google search, I couldn’t find anything, but I might be using a poor search phrase Kalit fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Apr 27, 2022 |
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Apr 27, 2022 16:17
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When I used to visit my grandpa, he had a friendly cat that was generally outside, because my aunt hated the cat being inside. As soon as that aunt left, Grandpa brought the cat in, and everyone was really happy and had a great time. Grandpa is Joe, the aunt is Kamala, and the cat is progressive policy
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