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Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Bar Ran Dun posted:

Shipping companies wouldn’t have a choice underwriters won’t cover.
There are also NATO countries on the Black Sea, are there not? There would be a run from Odessa or areas, I assume, to those areas, then to the Bosporus. It also harms Russia, I think, not least that if they're saying "we will sink anything that floats coming from the direction of Ukraine" they are probably not getting a lot of sanctions relief.

Ukraine would also have the option to expand rail lines and ship their goods into Poland or Romania, who I assume Russia will not shoot or bomb. I imagine they would be pleased as punch to have a new trade route run through them thanks to Russian missile, after a bit of a wind up.

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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Probably gonna be a lot less steel that needs to be exported...

catfry
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth
I agree with all of that. Exporting through romania will be difficult, less profitable, a band-aid solution, but it would keep Ukrainian industry mostly going. there is a lot of goodwill and desire to help from Romania side atm, and already announced projects to boost the capacity, reestablish broad gauge links and purchase gauge changing wagons, I linked some articles earlier:

catfry posted:

Ukrainian products are being exported through rail lines to Romanian ports. The first shipment since the start of the war has been loaded on a ship in Constanta, Romania. Ever since the blockade of Ukrainian ports, companies have been working to find alternatives. According to this article though, the potential of existing raillines is only 10% of seagoing vessels, proving a serious bottleneck. the issue is among others that there is a change of rail gauge, resulting in time consuming reloading.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityi...-ukrlandfarming

(use 12ft.io if paywall is up)

However if Romania is serious about these proposals mentioned below, among them rehabilitating the broad gauge rail between the Danube port city of Galati and the Moldovan border, and if trains can be allowed through Moldova AND transnistria, that would greatly help ease the blockade.

https://www-economica-net.translate...&_x_tr_pto=wapp
(free to read)

MixMasterMalaria
Jul 26, 2007

Rinkles posted:

It was sad realizing sentiments similar to this weren't uncommon among many of the great Russian writers.

Hard to imagine it from Dostoyevsky or Tolstoy.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

MixMasterMalaria posted:

Hard to imagine it from Dostoyevsky or Tolstoy.

Or Gogol...

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Wild if true, The Ukrainians killed another General, so still one dead Russian General per week.

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1520480474845663232

Lassitude
Oct 21, 2003

Random Integer posted:

I enjoyed this article about why Russians support the war. Its in Russian but google translate seemed to do a pretty good job.

Interesting read although not very encouraging. The cognitive dissonance is incredible. Like the author notes, it makes the 80%+ support for Putin and the war seem pretty believable. I also get the impression the national mood is insecure, bloodthirsty, and angry enough that they'd be willing to tolerate some form of escalation, whatever that might look like.

Scaramouche
Mar 26, 2001

SPACE FACE! SPACE FACE!

Tuna-Fish posted:

The razor you want is Hanlon's.

And yes, really, every report about Russian infrastructure catching on fire needs to be couched with an explanation that Russia is a place where everyone pays off all the safety inspectors, and correspondingly, everything is spontaneously failing all the time. It is interesting to note that this makes the sanctions much more powerful than they'd otherwise be -- since they can't manufacture important tooling without imports, every time a powerplant or a medicine manufacturing facility spontaneously combusts, they are that much closer to total failure state.

Another thing to consider instead of sabotage is the sanctions. Like how much industrial equipment is being run past its rated lifetime because it can't be replaced? How many maintenance items for said equipment are no longer available? How much safety gear can't be replaced right now? There was talk of "airplanes falling out of the sky" due to lack of maintenance equipment/expertise lack (which obvs has yet to happen) but the same is probably true of a lot of heavy industry.

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


MixMasterMalaria posted:

Hard to imagine it from Dostoyevsky or Tolstoy.

Here is an article about that exact question: https://theconversation.com/how-should-dostoevsky-and-tolstoy-be-read-during-russias-war-against-ukraine-179932

Turns out Dostoyevsky maybe, Tolstoy not so much.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands
So one quick way I like to illustrate the efficiency of sea transport is this:

"OK, how far do you think you could pick up me up and throw me before you get too tired to keep going?"

"All right, now how far do you think you could drag me across the floor before you get tired?"

"OK, now if I was floating on my back in a swimming pool, how far do you think you could push me before you got tired?"

It is way, way more efficient to transport stuff by ships than by any other method of transportation. It tends to be slower but it's difficult to beat for raw bulk. There's a reason why the vast majority of the world's trade routes run by ship whenever there's an option to do so. Trains can help pick up some of the slack but they can't really replace ports unless their infrastructure was designed from the start to handle the same raw throughput as a port could.

Keep in mind, one of the issues with trains is that they're bottlenecked not just by the number of trains they have and how quickly their stations can load and unload cargo, but also by how much rail they actually have to accommodate a given amount of trains. You can't put more than one train on the same set of rails in the same place after all, and freight train lines can get pretty long. You could build more rail, but that has complications because the initial rail line was most likely laid down where it was because it was the simplest and cheapest option - other rail lines will likely be more complex, more expensive, or would run through existing construction.

That's not to say that it isn't an important prop to the Ukrainian economy with their ports blockaded, and it's not to say that they won't be highly motivated to come up with solutions to any problems, but there's going to be a limit I think on how much can be achieved and the fact is that as long as the ports are blockaded it'll be putting a hurting on Ukraine and the most they can do is to staunch the bleeding.

Here's a few articles to illustrate the differences in scale:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21432226 posted:

What is blue, a quarter of a mile long, and taller than London's Olympic stadium?

The answer - this year's (ed: 2013) new class of container ship, the Triple E. When it goes into service this June, it will be the largest vessel ploughing the sea.

Each will contain as much steel as eight Eiffel Towers and have a capacity equivalent to 18,000 20-foot containers (TEU).

If those containers were placed in Times Square in New York, they would rise above billboards, streetlights and some buildings.

Or, to put it another way, they would fill more than 30 trains, each a mile long and stacked two containers high. Inside those containers, you could fit 36,000 cars or 863 million tins of baked beans.

https://www.costamare.com/industry_containerisation posted:

Since 2000 the average vessel size of container ships has more than doubled. Today’s largest container ship can carry about 24,000 TEUs.

The carrying capacity of today’s largest container vessels is equivalent to no less than a 44 miles long freight train.

The humble 20 ft (TEU) container weighs about 2 tonnes when empty.

A standard container can hold about 24,900 tin cans or about 48,000 bananas. A 40 ft container may hold more than 12,000 shoeboxes.

The global port throughput in 2017 was around 780 million TEUs.

Well over 1 billion tonnes is carried internationally in containers. By volume this accounts for about a quarter of all seaborne dry cargo. However, container ships transport half of the total value of global goods moved by sea.

The typical cost of transporting a 20 ft container from Asia to Europe carrying over 20 tonnes of cargo is about the same as the economy airfare for a single passenger on the same journey.

https://shippingwatch.com/Ports/article11989745.ece posted:

The enormous ships, the biggest of which are 400 meters long and have a capacity of 23,000 teu, make it cheaper to move containers. But they also create problems in the ports.

"We have responded to this development in Hamburg with larger cranes and on the nautical side with the deepening and widening of the river Elbe. But the main issue is the hinterland," says Thomas Lütje, sales director at HHLA, which handles the vast majority of containers in Hamburg.

"We have experienced that every 400 meter vessel creates a demand for 3,800 trucks and 50 trains 48 hours before and after the ship arrives. The market and the volume are growing moderately, but the load during peak times is increasing exponentially," Lütje tells ShippingWatch.

Note also: The sheer scale and size and thus cost of these ships means that shipping companies and their insurance companies would not, at all, in any way, want to gently caress around with doing anything that might potentially lose them. Such as, say, trying to run a Russian blockade when they've demonstrated a distinct trigger-happiness regarding merchant vessels.

Wildeyes
Nov 3, 2011

Chalks posted:

Russia's propaganda line is that the sanctions are meaningless and that nobody should care about them. While the negotiations are all theatrics they have been sticking to this - sanctions have not once been mentioned previously despite them being an obvious element of any deal.

For Russia to admit that sanctions are not only having a serious impact, but that they are a card that Ukraine is holding over then in the negotiations is humiliating. Only one of many humiliations that Russia is going to have to swallow in order to end this war, but it's an important step.

Podolyak is now saying Lavrov is lying and sanctions are not being discussed in the negotiations. I think Lavrov just wants to start a dialogue about lifting sanctions.

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1520430836021182465?s=20&t=_lamYTSJRXFPZvI1m-X6Ww

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Scaramouche posted:

Another thing to consider instead of sabotage is the sanctions. Like how much industrial equipment is being run past its rated lifetime because it can't be replaced? How many maintenance items for said equipment are no longer available? How much safety gear can't be replaced right now? There was talk of "airplanes falling out of the sky" due to lack of maintenance equipment/expertise lack (which obvs has yet to happen) but the same is probably true of a lot of heavy industry.

I wondered about that, but how much western equipment is something like a coal power plant going to rely on? I imagine much of their vital infrastructure will date back to the USSR and can probably be maintained without western parts. Aircraft are the one big exception to that.

Wildeyes posted:

Podolyak is now saying Lavrov is lying and sanctions are not being discussed in the negotiations. I think Lavrov just wants to start a dialogue about lifting sanctions.

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1520430836021182465?s=20&t=_lamYTSJRXFPZvI1m-X6Ww

Well, at least it's something I guess. Negotiations are still theatre but they're laying the ground for actually starting soon maybe?

This is going to drag on and on :(

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1520466584967516160?s=20&t=RUSo2PjRyH4GSGyp8wnrhA
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1520466816816013314?s=20&t=RUSo2PjRyH4GSGyp8wnrhA

British media btfu once again

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface
Yeah man there is a reason why the meme is I want to Believe in regards to the Ghost of Ukraine.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Telsa Cola posted:

Yeah man there is a reason why the meme is I want to Believe in regards to the Ghost of Ukraine.

You need to kill your inner Putinist

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ghost-of-kyiv-killed-after-shooting-40-russian-jets-identity-revealed-2933893
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ghost-of-kyiv-who-shot-down-more-than-40-russian-aircraft-dies-in-battle-q3sq0hztx
https://nypost.com/2022/04/29/ghost-of-kyiv-major-stepan-tarabalka-killed-in-battle/

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Nessus posted:

There are also NATO countries on the Black Sea, are there not?

They’d just put a policy exclusion on Ports involved the war. The Hull policies probably already have exclusions for war in existing policies. Cargo policies are mostly going to be voyage specific for bulk and coils and just won’t get issued. Or if there is a blanket policy it’ll have war exclusions.

On the RUS side underwriters basically can’t pay out any losses period because of sanctions.

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

You just posted a bunch of tabloids and also what the hell is your problem, this is the second time you posted poo poo like that.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Nenonen posted:

Well now here's an interesting angle on Finland's NATO membership. I bet this will go well.

https://yle.fi/news/3-12418999

How does this make any sense whatsoever

It's the kind of move I was expecting from Hungary or Turkey.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

It appears that the Azovstal complex is many smaller shelters

Ragozin has had a change of heart so I hope he is still permitted to be posted

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1520491810640048131


if a soviet staircase landing could speak

these are literally the civilian civil defense structures from the cold war, thought it was a bigger complex than that tbh

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Atreiden posted:

Wild if true, The Ukrainians killed another General, so still one dead Russian General per week.

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1520480474845663232

The daddest general. Well, now the deaddest general I guess. :dadjoke::hf::pressf:

Scaramouche posted:

Another thing to consider instead of sabotage is the sanctions. Like how much industrial equipment is being run past its rated lifetime because it can't be replaced? How many maintenance items for said equipment are no longer available? How much safety gear can't be replaced right now? There was talk of "airplanes falling out of the sky" due to lack of maintenance equipment/expertise lack (which obvs has yet to happen) but the same is probably true of a lot of heavy industry.

This is a good point. Equipment, but also consultants and other expert services. Although I wouldn't expect to see results this soon, but who knows?

Phlegmish posted:

How does this make any sense whatsoever

It's the kind of move I was expecting from Hungary or Turkey.

The Croatian government has pledged its support to Finnish and Swedish NATO membership, it's just the dumb president being dumb while having no authority in the issue.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Drove back from Berlin to Warsaw and I’m sure now Russia is using trucks from Kazakhstan to ferry stuff to and from the EU. Unlike a few weeks ago, there was no Belarusian or Russian haulers. Good to see Ukrainian trucks going in both directions.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

Nessus posted:

There are also NATO countries on the Black Sea, are there not? There would be a run from Odessa or areas, I assume, to those areas, then to the Bosporus. It also harms Russia, I think, not least that if they're saying "we will sink anything that floats coming from the direction of Ukraine" they are probably not getting a lot of sanctions relief.

Ukraine would also have the option to expand rail lines and ship their goods into Poland or Romania, who I assume Russia will not shoot or bomb. I imagine they would be pleased as punch to have a new trade route run through them thanks to Russian missile, after a bit of a wind up.
If Ukraine was serious about rail shipping there would be a push for new lines or to refit some existing lines to standard gauge from the Russian gauge.

It might be in their interest to refit the country to not be compatible with Russian gauge trains.

Gejnor
Mar 14, 2005

Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/Nordic_News/status/1520465709515657216

Next time i hope we follow Turkey's lead and shoot the fuckers down.

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

FishBulbia posted:

It appears that the Azovstal complex is many smaller shelters

Ragozin has had a change of heart so I hope he is still permitted to be posted

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1520491810640048131


if a soviet staircase landing could speak

these are literally the civilian civil defense structures from the cold war, thought it was a bigger complex than that tbh

I remember one of the azov or marines videos saying something to the effect of there were many smaller shelters. They specifically were referring to having civilians in one area and soldiers in another to stave off accusations of human shields.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Gejnor posted:

https://twitter.com/Nordic_News/status/1520465709515657216

Next time i hope we follow Turkey's lead and shoot the fuckers down.

Honestly, I just want them to try that horse poo poo with Poland.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


Nenonen posted:

The daddest general. Well, now the deaddest general I guess. :dadjoke::hf::pressf:

Dude looks like he had a collection of old 80s Dungeons and Dragons editions at home. RIP Russian nerd general

E: was there a Soviet dungeons and dragons equivalent?

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Something new is on fire. Russia’s largest producer of antibiotics.

https://youtu.be/jcnIp3Q9t8c

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Risky Bisquick posted:

If Ukraine was serious about rail shipping there would be a push for new lines or to refit some existing lines to standard gauge from the Russian gauge.

It might be in their interest to refit the country to not be compatible with Russian gauge trains.

Ukraine has 22300 kilometres of railway. It would be a daunting project that would take years, in the meanwhile part of the country would be in different gauge and would require different gauge locomotives and cars than rest of the country. I don't know if anyone has ever done that. Finland still uses 1524mm gauge which is compatible with the Russian 1520mm gauge1, while Sweden and Norway use 1435mm standard gauge.


1 Finland uses the original Imperial Russian gauge, while Soviet Union changed the gauge slightly in the 1960's (from 5 ft to 4 ft 11 27⁄32 in). The five feet gauge came to Russian empire from southern United States where it was dominant at the time when Russia started building railways and when they hired George Washington Whistler for the job. Yes, the father of the painter of Whistler's Mother. I think I have now diverted enough from the topic.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




FishBulbia posted:

Ragozin has had a change of heart so I hope he is still permitted to be posted

When was Ragozin, or any other media source for that matter, prohibited from being posted in this thread?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Marshal Prolapse posted:

Something new is on fire. Russia’s largest producer of antibiotics.

https://youtu.be/jcnIp3Q9t8c

That doesn't look like a major medical plant, it's a small shack just across the street from some houses. Do you have any kind of source better than a YouTube rando?

MrYenko
Jun 18, 2012

#2 isn't ALWAYS bad...

Nenonen posted:

Ukraine has 22300 kilometres of railway. It would be a daunting project that would take years, in the meanwhile part of the country would be in different gauge and would require different gauge locomotives and cars than rest of the country. I don't know if anyone has ever done that. Finland still uses 1524mm gauge which is compatible with the Russian 1520mm gauge1, while Sweden and Norway use 1435mm standard gauge.


1 Finland uses the original Imperial Russian gauge, while Soviet Union changed the gauge slightly in the 1960's (from 5 ft to 4 ft 11 27⁄32 in). The five feet gauge came to Russian empire from southern United States where it was dominant at the time when Russia started building railways and when they hired George Washington Whistler for the job. Yes, the father of the painter of Whistler's Mother. I think I have now diverted enough from the topic.

…No no, let’s see how deep the rabbit hole goes.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

MrYenko posted:

…No no, let’s see how deep the rabbit hole goes.

I could continue on realism in painting and the etymology of 'whistle'?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




aphid_licker posted:

E: was there a Soviet dungeons and dragons equivalent?

Not really. There were plenty of popular card games, as far as tabletop gaming for adults is concerned.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Nenonen posted:

That doesn't look like a major medical plant, it's a small shack just across the street from some houses. Do you have any kind of source better than a YouTube rando?

There’s info in the video description about the original source. I just can’t paste it in for some reason.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


cinci zoo sniper posted:

Not really. There were plenty of popular card games, as far as tabletop gaming for adults is concerned.

What kind, like traditional ones or new fantasy-themed ones?

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
https://www.instagram.com/tv/Cc-6iCTois6/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

:eyepop:

The Belarusian ultras are still in Kyiv so maybe this is possible

d64
Jan 15, 2003

Gejnor posted:

https://twitter.com/Nordic_News/status/1520465709515657216

Next time i hope we follow Turkey's lead and shoot the fuckers down.
This is not unusual, Russian planes have flown, usually fairly momentarily, into Finnish and likely Swedish airspace with some regularity for many years.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Wildeyes posted:

Russia, Belarus Form New USSR, Call On Ex-Soviet Nations to Join

They should keep calling their alliance the Union State, I'm sure that won't be confusing at all and won't make for an even more confusing acronym.

They've founded about ten different entities at this point.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

aphid_licker posted:

Dude looks like he had a collection of old 80s Dungeons and Dragons editions at home. RIP Russian nerd general

E: was there a Soviet dungeons and dragons equivalent?

Bunkers and Fascists.

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Vesi
Jan 12, 2005

pikachu looking at?

Nenonen posted:

That doesn't look like a major medical plant, it's a small shack just across the street from some houses. Do you have any kind of source better than a YouTube rando?

there's some ongoing forest/brush fires near Kurgan but the Sintez plant is pretty far from any nature

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