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TulliusCicero posted:It's basically a Russian C-117 right? If so absolutely. If it has fighter escorts and they path over Romania they are going to get shot down. Oh hi snipe
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May 2, 2022 18:29
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PerilPastry posted:Let's pretend you're Putin and somehow don't have a completely blinkered view of the situation. Hold Kherson and the part of the Donbas you did claim, offer humanitarian aid and Red Cross in Maybe not engage in genocide and war crimes for fun. Use Kherson as a bargaining chip for negotations. Try to repair your international soft power completely in shreds, accept you got Crimea completely secured and move on, sue for peace. Putin will never do this because he's not a rational actor, he really thinks he's winning TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 18:33 on May 2, 2022 |
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May 2, 2022 18:31
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PerilPastry posted:Let's pretend you're Putin and somehow don't have a completely blinkered view of the situation. Craft the appropriate scenario/propaganda to support mobilization and a shift into full wartime modality with no end in sight for a forever war and hope/pray that russian apathy which has been the glue of the nation for half a millenium will hold it all together long enough for Ukraine and the rest of the world to get bored/give up
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May 2, 2022 18:31
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GaussianCopula posted:Newest excuse why Germany can't do everything in it's power to support Ukraine according to Scholz (after "weapons will only increase blood toll" "we don't have weapons" "they can't use our high tech weapons" and "I'm afraid of WW3"): They didn't want to meet with the German head of state, who is a long time Putin/Russia lover.  thing...Just loving say: We understand why Ukraine was upset and did what they did and let's move on...
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May 2, 2022 18:34
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fatherboxx posted:Is it possible for a fighter plane to intercept IL-76? With the stellar performance of the Russian forces, Mathias Rust could probably take it down.
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May 2, 2022 18:34
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TulliusCicero posted:It's basically a Russian C-117 right? If so absolutely.
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May 2, 2022 18:35
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Marshal Prolapse posted:PIPE CHAT That's the Polish pipe which was largely cutoff last week?
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May 2, 2022 18:35
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https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1521094762845061122 oldish news but still holy gently caress. sounds like they are gonna try to justify their their war crimes with more war crimes.
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May 2, 2022 18:37
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CommieGIR posted:That's the Polish pipe which was largely cutoff last week? That’s what I’m thinking based on an article that was linked. I think there are two others and the Nord Stream 1. Man it would really be a shame if those other pipelines were damaged in an eco friendly way.
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May 2, 2022 18:38
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Deformed Church posted:Intervening after the fact sounds pretty tough. Firstly because the Russian military isn't in any position to do much of anything, and secondly because the moment there's no chance of direct contact, Ukraine is going to be packed with NATO and UN people, so marching into it is going to be extremely hairy. The hope, in this alt-history, is that the resulting conflict will confuse western allies and make them afraid to offer more support to a divided Ukraine. Another option is literally destroy the world, and then try to reconsolidate power in the post nuclear hellscape.
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May 2, 2022 18:40
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CommieGIR posted:That's the Polish pipe which was largely cutoff last week? Sort off, it splits in Belarus, the line going to Poland also goes to Germany, the other line goes through Ukraine, Slovakia and ends in Austria. edit: old news article, so irrelevant
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May 2, 2022 18:45
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fatherboxx posted:Is it possible for a fighter plane to intercept IL-76? Il-76 flies 800 km/h, MiG-29 flies 2400 km/h. Question would be the defences around the hypothetical VDV convoy, such as Russian fighters or AA stations in Transnistria, if any. I guess the other question is rumours that Ukrainian fighters don’t have guided air-air missiles - not sure how easy or difficult is it for MiG-29 to shoot Il-76 down without those. GaussianCopula posted:Newest excuse why Germany can't do everything in it's power to support Ukraine according to Scholz (after "weapons will only increase blood toll" "we don't have weapons" "they can't use our high tech weapons" and "I'm afraid of WW3"): They didn't want to meet with the German head of state, who is a long time Putin/Russia lover. If only we had some way to examine a sequence of events to establish the order of things as they happened…  I’m starting to lack adjectives to characterise Scholz as a politician. Grouchio posted:Just to clarify, the planned Transnistria front is (most likely) directed towards Ukraine and not Moldova, right? No one knows what’s happening there. Marshal Prolapse posted:PIPE CHAT ~30% of Russian gas uses to flow through that one.
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May 2, 2022 18:46
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CommieGIR posted:So they really cannot avoid an overflight of territory likely swarming with new AA systems and/or aircraft. That's assuming they ever get anywhere near Tiraspol, of course.
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May 2, 2022 18:47
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Thread on Moldova/Transnistria, from a UK journalist (The Sunday Times): https://twitter.com/louiseelisabet/status/1521078637335875585 https://twitter.com/louiseelisabet/status/1521078644306849794
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May 2, 2022 18:51
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Marshal Prolapse posted:With the stellar performance of the Russian forces, Mathias Rust could probably take it down. I could what?
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May 2, 2022 18:53
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Il-76 flies 800 km/h, MiG-29 flies 2400 km/h. Question would be the defences around the hypothetical VDV convoy, such as Russian fighters or AA stations in Transnistria, if any. I guess the other question is rumours that Ukrainian fighters don’t have guided air-air missiles - not sure how easy or difficult is it for MiG-29 to shoot Il-76 down without those.  Wait wait, back the gently caress up: the Ukranian Airforce that has been trolling the Russians all this time and somehow continues to exist is rumored to not even have AA missiles? What the gently caress Russia
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May 2, 2022 18:57
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In Scholz defense, he was just saying he wasn't going to Kyiv and he held a speech yesterday defending giving weapons to Ukraine while heckled by even worse Germans. I mean his reason for not going to Kyiv is stil poo poo. https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1520822699324583937 https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1520825801414959105
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May 2, 2022 18:57
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TulliusCicero posted:
Probably a purposeful game of telephone - Ukraine's air to air missiles are (I believe) semi-active guided radar only, which means you have to keep pointed at them to keep a lock (like our older AIM-7 Sparrows). Russia has self-guided radar ones (like our AIM-120's) and heat seaking (like our Sidewinders), so by comparison, Ukraine doesn't have THE BEST AA missiles, but they do sure as poo poo have them. Plus, vs an il-76, the Mig-29 does have a 30mm autocannon which may be sufficient.
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May 2, 2022 19:07
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Edit: ^^ better replyTulliusCicero posted:
They have them, just the older kind that flies where aimed, if we believe the couple pilot interviews publicised. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:15 on May 2, 2022 |
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May 2, 2022 19:09
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A better tactic against the IL-76 would be if the S-300 systems were near and to get help from NATO AWACS to locate it. You don't want the S-300's search radar lit for too long in advance to let Russia know where it is, but if the AWACS can say when, flip it on and launch some telephone poles at it.
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May 2, 2022 19:12
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https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1521159911618535427
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May 2, 2022 19:17
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But I read the Ukrainian defenses are collapsing!
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May 2, 2022 19:19
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Rust Martialis posted:But I read the Ukrainian defenses are collapsing! The Russians are lulling them into a false sense of security This new offensive is great, the mighty Bear has occupied like five villages along few kilometers of the front, while Ukraine has pushed the Russians back everywhere else.
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May 2, 2022 19:23
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Rust Martialis posted:But I read the Ukrainian defenses are collapsing! I was tempted to earlier post this but Euromaidan is kinda iffy so it's nice to see somewhat of a confirmation https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1521141519998238721?cxt=HHwWgoC-ieaJl5wqAAAA e: and this https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1521164310164258817 the popes toes fucked around with this message at 19:28 on May 2, 2022 |
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May 2, 2022 19:24
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For reference, I put some measurements into the (current) liveuamap.com map. Latest update from the sidebar is from "a day ago"  e: vv you can use the polyline measure tool, bottom left of the main map boofhead fucked around with this message at 19:40 on May 2, 2022 |
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May 2, 2022 19:30
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boofhead posted:For reference, I put some measurements into the (current) liveuamap.com map. Latest update from the sidebar is from "a day ago" oh, wow, that's helpful. thanks
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May 2, 2022 19:34
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More tire chat from Telenko https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1521182849000423426?cxt=HHwWhICykbvvqZwqAAAA ...and the money shot is: https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1521182860396437504
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May 2, 2022 19:40
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Based on the CNN report that Ukraine has retaken Verkhnya Rohanka, this is how Ukraine can attack the GLOC from Belgorod to the Izum salient. 
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May 2, 2022 19:43
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Saladman posted:That seems... extravagantly exaggerated? I read the actual article too ( https://www.ft.com/content/d8e565b0-c769-46cc-9be3-4ed9a806d8e8?shareType=nongift ). It seems like it's... full of poo poo? Like 'inflation in the west is to a significant extent made in Moscow' is an easily falsifiable claim, unless he's trying to spin that Russia was already somehow inducing inflation in "the west" prior to Feb 24th? Yes, Russia was already throttling gas prior to Feb 24th quote:"We may have to ration some essential goods."? What goods might Europe even theoretically have to ration, besides (and it's still fairly unlikely imho to be an actual ration) gas used for heating next winter? So, just speaking for the UK here (which has extra problems because of Brexit) but we almost ran out of carbon dioxide last year, which would have meant no more frozen food and no more meat (and a bunch of other food stuff). Apparently the supply is still severely strained. What's going on in Ukraine isn't like what happened in Iraq where most of the world can just ignore what's going on. COVID already pushed things to the breaking point and now, unless the population is adequately prepared for tough times (the UK media has been flooded with articles on how to pinch pennies, raising taxes on billionaires isn't an option) then things could definitely get nasty.
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May 2, 2022 19:44
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steinrokkan posted:The Russians are lulling them into a false sense of security Ussually in an Offensive you want to, you know, take more territory than you lose Maybe this is 6d Chess now and the glorious VDV will hover over from Moldova in a glorous drop into Odesa harbor I'm pretty sure Tim Curry in Red Alert 3 was more competent at war than Putin
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May 2, 2022 19:46
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Grape posted:Again, tweet skipper check. putin 7-conscripted to tank pool and lair but forgot to build a queen or get the tire upgrades which is why his all-in isn't working
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May 2, 2022 19:53
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https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1521182694021165056
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May 2, 2022 19:56
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Time to go back home for army group north.
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May 2, 2022 20:00
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They can now participate in the war from the comfort of mother Russia's territory
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May 2, 2022 20:06
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Velyka Babka? Ok. Ukraine has a village called “large (loaf of) sweet egg bread”.
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May 2, 2022 20:13
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WithoutTheFezOn posted:Velyka Babka? Ok. Hitler committed fully in Stalingrad and ordered no retreat because of its name. Here the name is even more important for morale.
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May 2, 2022 20:18
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I mean, I’ve seen some poo poo getting ugly regarding ownership of a velyka babka in the past, so it checks out.
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May 2, 2022 20:20
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That had to be all part of the plan, right?
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May 2, 2022 20:20
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FishBulbia posted:I seriously cannot comprehend what the goal of a Transnistria operation would be If they just wanted to open a new front they could invade in the NW again. Seems like dropping troops in with no hope of resupply will only serve to escalate. On paper at least, Transnistria has tanks--18 T-64BVs, and some T-55s in storage. Rather ancient, particularly the T-55s (which might not even be operational), but apparently Moldova doesn't have any tanks. Neither has an air force worth mentioning (a few transport aircraft and helicopters, but low single digits even of those).
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May 2, 2022 20:22
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mobby_6kl posted:That had to be all part of the plan, right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QS54GkLRtrI
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May 2, 2022 20:23
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