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Who will win the federal Election This poll is closed. |
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| Labor Majority |
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48 | 42.48% |
| Labor Minority |
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29 | 25.66% |
| Liberal Majority |
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3 | 2.65% |
| Liberal Minority |
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12 | 10.62% |
| UAP Majoirty |
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21 | 18.58% |
| Total: | 113 votes | ||
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the teal independents are directly inspired by cathy mcgowan, her successor helen haines, and zali steggall. steggall and mcgowan won their seats because their seats were held by unpopular right-wingers (abbott and sophie mirabella), but it's now inspired people to try the same thing in safe urban liberal seats held by moderate liberals because they feel that the moderate liberals can clearly no longer deliver on issues that matter to them (climate and integrity are the two big ones) as the party has shifted too far to the right. community groups in all those seats formed "voices of _" groups to decide upon candidates, a platform to support, etc., directly inspired by the same 'voices of indi' and 'voices of warringah' campaign groups that backed mcgowan, haines, and steggall, and these groups have received significant funding from simon holmes a court's climate 200 fund. holmes a court is a wealthy businessman (& billionaire's son) who was a former fundraiser & major donor to frydenberg until falling out with the liberals over climate policy, and responded by throwing money at haines, stegall, and sharkie in the 2019 election. he's expanding his spending & fundraising significantly at this election to support independents who are strong on climate & integrity issues, including all the 'teal independents'. climate 200 is also advised by a ton of familiar faces - tony windsor, kerryn phelps, rob oakeshott, meg lees, and john hewson. if you look at their actual policies, some of them are running firmly to the left of labor on a lot of issues - even things like a jobkeeper increase - but they're generally more middling on economics. they would probably not have too much trouble fitting into the labor party if they really wanted to (& some could probably even fit into the greens) but that's an obvious no-go for winning most of these seats due to tribalism. https://twitter.com/theheraldsun/status/1521278373858734080 lih fucked around with this message at 03:02 on May 3, 2022 |
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May 3, 2022 02:48
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Thanks for the explanation. I thought the teals were just a new other that they can blame losing the election on
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May 3, 2022 03:00
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They will do that anyway, Josh Frydenberg is spending most of his time right now whinging about Monique Ryan and he hasn’t even lost yet.
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May 3, 2022 03:39
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https://twitter.com/Ageinvestigates/status/1521316343164801024 BRS trial apparently reaching new extremes every day
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May 3, 2022 03:50
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Viral moment? salmonella is a bacteria.
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May 3, 2022 04:00
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Why is the curry white. Literally never seen a curry even close to that colour
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May 3, 2022 04:23
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Zenithe posted:Why is the curry white. Literally never seen a curry even close to that colour He likes his curry like he likes his population. Bland and white.
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May 3, 2022 04:45
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loving up cooking a curry probably just makes him more relatable to the rest of the population. Really fits his daggy dad image.
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May 3, 2022 04:50
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Zenithe posted:Why is the curry white. Literally never seen a curry even close to that colour That’s what curry looks like when you’re afraid of all the ingredients that actually go in a curry so it ends up being mostly coconut milk.
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May 3, 2022 04:58
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Coconut milk stir fry
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May 3, 2022 05:06
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Seemlar posted:
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May 3, 2022 05:16
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Zenithe posted:Why is the curry white. Literally never seen a curry even close to that colour Laksa?
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May 3, 2022 05:22
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25bps increase, more than expected. Bye Scotty I guess?
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May 3, 2022 05:31
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kirbysuperstar posted:Laksa? Laksa has colour in it
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May 3, 2022 05:31
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kirbysuperstar posted:Laksa? A malaysian somewhere just took psychic damage
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May 3, 2022 05:36
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JBP posted:Laksa has colour in it True..
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May 3, 2022 05:38
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Zenithe posted:Why is the curry white. Literally never seen a curry even close to that colour Colourful curry is too spicy for him He had to wash the chicken korma down with some milk it burnt his tongue so much
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May 3, 2022 05:39
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chicken korma is about the right amount of spice for me tbh
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May 3, 2022 05:51
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Mola Yam posted:25bps increase, more than expected. Bye Scotty I guess? Libs better economic managers. Had to happen. Cant trust ALP in this political climate.
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May 3, 2022 05:52
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See, this is what you can expect under a Labor government. Not even in power yet and already we're suffering.
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May 3, 2022 06:07
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So.... As a non home owner the interest rate rise is good for me right? I.e. cost of living of other items should come down?
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May 3, 2022 06:14
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Why can't my curry be coloured white I should talk to my culinary teacher Coloured curry is just not right
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May 3, 2022 06:18
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BOAT SHOWBOAT posted:So.... As a non home owner the interest rate rise is good for me right? I.e. cost of living of other items should come down? Ahhh. No. General cost of living is going to go up, potentially dramatically. You will get better rates on savings accounts (if banks pass the rate along lol). Lending will get tighter for new businesses and projects as well which could restrict the economy somewhat when it comes to new employers and stuff. Businesses servicing existing loans will likely have to pass on the repayments to customers along with higher wages and their other outgoings.
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May 3, 2022 06:23
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Every Labor government has dealt with a rat hosed economy, but here's to Scomo sooking for the rest of the campaign. Comedy option, Liberals win with Frydenberg losing his seat. At least good news is Michael Cannon-Brooks bought up a heap of AGL shares to become largest shareholder, maybe he can finally start to unfuck that problem.
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May 3, 2022 06:23
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snickothemule posted:Every Labor government has dealt with a rat hosed economy, but here's to Scomo sooking for the rest of the campaign. Hate to rely on rich tech dude to do anything when it comes to power but he's better than the alternatives I suppose.
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May 3, 2022 06:24
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BOAT SHOWBOAT posted:So.... As a non home owner the interest rate rise is good for me right? I.e. cost of living of other items should come down? interest rates going up increases the value of cash money, so if you have lots of cash money then it's pretty good, of course the interest rate increases would need to outpace inflation to reverse the cost of living expenses, so all this really does is slow the raise in cost of living until they fiddle with number a few more times and the cost of inputs into making goods & services available also decreases so as to allow price cuts to the consumer to be enacted. This happens when demand falls and sellers need to compete for cash so they cut into their margins in order to increase turnover. thus the answer is no
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May 3, 2022 06:24
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wait hang on i have a better answer nowZenithe posted:Why is the curry white. Literally never seen a curry even close to that colour he's a white supremacist lmao
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May 3, 2022 06:27
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JBP posted:Hate to rely on rich tech dude to do anything when it comes to power but he's better than the alternatives I suppose. Same tbh, I'm ready to invest in the green boom but if we have to rely on rich hippies to make things less bad thems the breaks.
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May 3, 2022 06:27
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Janitor Ludwich IV posted:interest rates going up increases the value of cash money, so if you have lots of cash money then it's pretty good, of course the interest rate increases would need to outpace inflation to reverse the cost of living expenses, so all this really does is slow the raise in cost of living until they fiddle with number a few more times and the cost of inputs into making goods & services available also decreases so as to allow price cuts to the consumer to be enacted. This happens when demand falls and sellers need to compete for cash so they cut into their margins in order to increase turnover. Hmm interesting. I thought the point was that if people have to make higher mortgage repayments they have less to spend on goods and services, thus demand for goods and services comes down curbing inflation and prices consequently decrease?
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May 3, 2022 06:29
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White curries are actually a thing but his curry looks like food court carbonara. Kind of impressive how bad he is at everything.
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May 3, 2022 06:29
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jeffreyw posted:White curries are actually a thing but his curry looks like food court carbonara. Food court carbonara is still probably too spicy for him.
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May 3, 2022 06:30
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frydenberg was the most popular liberal to be pm pick with non liberals so it makes sense theyre freaking out about him losing his seat, which would be very funny were it to happen. obviously everybody knows the law of politic-dynamics tells us good things happening is impossible but an often overlooked nuance is that localized good things can happen in exchange for a greater increase in bad things happening in the overall system. so who knows ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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May 3, 2022 06:36
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BOAT SHOWBOAT posted:Hmm interesting. I thought the point was that if people have to make higher mortgage repayments they have less to spend on goods and services, thus demand for goods and services comes down curbing inflation and prices consequently decrease? https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html The problem being the RBA is going to slowly increase the interest rate and have also potentially started it too late. If inflation is outpacing the control of interest rates consumer prices still rise, and inflation is heading to 5% or higher due to global economic factors (russian oil ban, spiking prices, astronomical shipping costs, and global inflation, probably lots of commodities/raw materials in general as well), if these issues are resolved then being cautious with your rate rises is a good thing, if you're wrong things get worse. The RBA targets 2-3% and they were slow to pull the trigger on a rate hike for a bunch of reasons, mainly they see the current situation as temporary, and Australian households are heavily indebted. So the choice is basically either keep money cheap and hope wages go up enough to keep pace with inflation, which they can't do because they would be shirking their target of 2-3% by letting it go out of control, or put pressure on the incredibly debt laden homes of Australia to curb their spending and risk people defaulting on loans. So they can't go too hard but they also can't do nothing as much as they have preferred the do nothing option.
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May 3, 2022 06:49
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Mola Yam posted:25bps increase, more than expected. Bye Scotty I guess? Philip Lowe sends his regards.
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May 3, 2022 07:02
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a rate rise of .25% is standard i guess but i was thinking it might be .15% and hoping for .4% having a cash rate of .35% just feels weird to me
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May 3, 2022 07:09
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BOAT SHOWBOAT posted:So.... As a non home owner the interest rate rise is good for me right? I.e. cost of living of other items should come down? I have bad news, and bad news.
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May 3, 2022 07:54
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I think I was like 21 last time rates went up. Is this an unusually big jump? Isn't it normally up or down by 0.05% or 0.10%?
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May 3, 2022 07:57
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Haha, I love this guy they put in the ABC article for balance:quote:Savers rejoice Where's the guillotine gif when you need it.
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May 3, 2022 08:00
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freebooter posted:I think I was like 21 last time rates went up. Is this an unusually big jump? Isn't it normally up or down by 0.05% or 0.10%? Nah, this is pretty standard. We've just dropped by .1% because there's no where left to fall to.
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May 3, 2022 08:04
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freebooter posted:I think I was like 21 last time rates went up. Is this an unusually big jump? Isn't it normally up or down by 0.05% or 0.10%? Not quite unusual for basis point movements, but facing a climb to 1.5% at Christmas and close to 3 in 2023 is what is going to hurt regular folks most. We're also used to a decade of relative ease for interest and inflation while policy has been geared to kick us hard in the balls for when it does come (which is now). Go too hard in a short term is bad for inciting a recession, having cheap money and ballistic spending also bad for inflation. Keating was slammed for his performance in the 90s but that was on the back of a major structural change to our country, going from bumpkins to being more or less in line with the OECD standard. Rudd faced a colossal fuckup with American finance groups (amongst a host of other things) causing a major total wave of hell that the world is still struggling with. But he managed to keep activity up, unemployment down and inflation in check. We were at the top of the OECD as a result. Now, we have a problem with a mangled tax policy, Liberals brushing off all the "failures" they criticised so heavily, but the economy is geared so poorly to favour those with housing portfolios and a severe weakening of public services, on top of record debt, that to change it to properly address the issue is going to be painful and long term. Now we are so far down in the OECD with some really lovely structural problems that a position like a green energy reform will most likely get us through the decade, if it kicks off correctly. On current trajectory it's not looking good, especially with high household debt and horiffic housing market.
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May 3, 2022 08:18
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