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So does this mean SF now have a majority across most of NI atm?
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May 6, 2022 17:53
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Josef bugman posted:So does this mean SF now have a majority across most of NI atm? No they now have about 27% of the vote And there's still about 5 constituencies they won't win a seat in Edit: actually more like 28% kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 18:03 on May 6, 2022 |
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May 6, 2022 17:56
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kustomkarkommando posted:Still waiting on foyle and a couple more to declare first counts so will probably get bumped up a wee bit but yeah this is a really bad election for the SDLP and any hope they might have stemmed the slow bleed last election is gone. 
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May 6, 2022 17:57
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kustomkarkommando posted:No they now have about 27% of the vote Sorry, majority of people in political offices?
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May 6, 2022 17:59
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Josef bugman posted:Sorry, majority of people in political offices? They're probably going to get 28 seats out of 90, so they'll be the largest party by maybe 4 seats
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May 6, 2022 18:00
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kustomkarkommando posted:SF actually looking likely to gain one seat which might even surprise them a bit, this is on the wildly good side of the possible outcomes for them this election - more than holding steady have actually nudged the needle slightly more to their favour vote share wise and will probably be fielding three in a couple more constituencies next election. I've been seeing good things about their preference splits compared to other parties, which seems to be helping a lot.
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May 6, 2022 18:02
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Josef bugman posted:Sorry, majority of people in political offices? Nah, they use PR, no one will have a majority. But Sinn Fein coming first would still be a historical result in NI
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May 6, 2022 18:04
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kustomkarkommando posted:They're probably going to get 28 seats out of 90, so they'll be the largest party by maybe 4 seats Ahhh, got it! Thank you!
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May 6, 2022 18:50
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forkboy84 posted:But Sinn Fein coming first would still be a historical result in NI It being the first time the Assembly didn't form for the full electoral cycle.
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May 6, 2022 19:06
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refusing to participate in the democratic process because you're afraid of a democratic poll of your constituents, which won't happen in the current political climate anyway 
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May 6, 2022 19:17
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Alliance looking competitive I think to pick up an extra 5-8 seats. For reference they won 8 in the last election.
kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 20:08 on May 6, 2022 |
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May 6, 2022 20:06
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TUV have recruited a new spokesperson to professionalise themselves as a real political party https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAa4xPkk2Pw&t=12s
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May 6, 2022 20:11
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A school chum got eliminated in the first round awwww. Hes Independant, party name Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol
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May 6, 2022 20:51
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that's a real party though isn't it? they used to run in GB
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May 6, 2022 21:08
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according to Wikipedia it was founded in 2015 and dissolved in 2016 presumably someone set out to change the world but then got high hehehe 
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May 6, 2022 21:10
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You'll never win by putting facts in the name of your party. You have to go for brazen lies like the Democratic Unionist Party.
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May 6, 2022 21:16
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Guavanaut posted:You'll never win by putting facts in the name of your party. You have to go for brazen lies like the Democratic Unionist Party. 
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May 7, 2022 00:55
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lol TUV got 7.6% of the vote but still are only going to win a single seat due to poor seat targetting
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May 7, 2022 14:09
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crispix posted:voting alliance 1 and 2 in Strangford and UUP 3rd and 4th purely to do my bit to unseat one of the DUP scumbags DUP scumbag unseated  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/northern-ireland/constituencies/N06000016
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May 7, 2022 15:10
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Alliance's success is going to boil the DUP's piss so much 
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May 7, 2022 15:12
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this was an unintended post by me, crispix i have bad posting skills
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May 7, 2022 15:25
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crispix posted:Alliance's success is going to boil the DUP's piss so much Been a great weekend for my mood. The Tories lose seats a plenty, the Alliance doing great, the DUP sliding slowly into irrelevance, and now we have fox cubs playing in our garden in the evening and they are a joy to watch.
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May 7, 2022 15:31
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Here in North Antrim my Alliance candidate O'Lynn got in... among with Allister & Frew (TUV & DUP).  What happens next god only knows.
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May 7, 2022 15:37
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i like Naomi Long, she is the bossy auntie this place needs imo
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May 7, 2022 15:47
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Things are gonna get spicy now when SF begins to realize they are gonna have to actually fight a bit with Alliance for votes as they both start chewing on the corpse of the SDLP
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May 7, 2022 16:13
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And I know because everyone loves discussing DEMOGRAPHICS and arguing about WHAT IS TO COME here's some broad sweep designation voting patterns with the usual caveats (taking PBP's other designation at face value, doing some rough assignment on independents who expressly ran with a constitutional position, using the CAIN data on 2011 which is a little bit wonky, completely ignoring the Socialist Party/Workers Party/CCLA/Cista/Vague & Single-Issue Independents because I couldn't be bothered ) 
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May 7, 2022 17:15
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yeah i really can't see any way back for the UUP or SDLP. TUV and Alliance are likely going to continue to eat into the DUP's vote from either side but the only people still voting UUP seem to be older middle class church of ireland folks
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May 7, 2022 17:22
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SF north and south lets have it.
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May 7, 2022 18:52
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crispix posted:Alliance's success is going to boil the DUP's piss so much It's a pity the polls that suggested Alliance might beat the DUP into third didn't play out though. e: also I know any government's got have both nationalists and unionists in it but does it have to be the DUP or could they work out some deal with the UUP? I'm British so naturally no-one has ever bothered to explain how anything in stormont works beyond absolute surface level detail. a pipe smoking dog fucked around with this message at 19:43 on May 7, 2022 |
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May 7, 2022 19:39
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"Following the St Andrews Agreement in October 2006, the appointment procedure was changed to allow for:
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May 7, 2022 19:47
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There's a couple of little ancillary clauses to thatquote:(5)But if two or more political designations are taken by virtue of subsection (4) to be of the same size, the respective sizes of those designations is to be determined by reference to the aggregate number of first preference votes cast, at the last general election of members of the Assembly, for members of the Assembly who, at the relevant time, were— So the largest party gets First Minister slot regardless and deputy First Minister then goes to the largest party in the largest designation, which will be the DUP. If the DUP refuses to nominate it breaks the ability to appoint the ministers and no executive can be formed, thats kind of an inherent feature of the GFA in that no government can be formed without the consent of the largest parties from the respective designations. A side effect of the rules above also meant that if Alliance finished second, which they won't, they wouldn't be entitled to the deputy post which a lot of people didn't seem to be aware of. We're probably going into another round of reform re: government formation off the back of this election tbh. Im pretty sure the end outcome will involve removing the "deputy" label and just having equal First Ministers (which pretty much everyone but the DUP have already proposed but which I'm sure they will suddenly decide is their idea) and a major overhaul of the community voting system which pretty much discounts the Other block on a limited number of voting situations.
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May 7, 2022 20:04
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You should definitely go consular about it, specifically the bit where they each take turns commanding the army on alternating days except it's the entire government.
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May 7, 2022 20:10
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The two positions are already completely and utterly equal in power and have the same united cabinet office and can only exercise their powers together. If one slot becomes vacant a government can not exist. Even stylistically its rammed home continually its First Minister and deputy First Minister, emphasis on that lower case d. Really the vague implication one position is superior to the other is only still around because the DUP wanted their title to sound better than SF's when they agreed to enter government with them even when factually the positions where equal.
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May 7, 2022 20:18
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are the dup gonna continue to just refuse to ever go back to their seat and thus the entire NI government shuts down forever
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May 7, 2022 20:41
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kustomkarkommando posted:The two positions are already completely and utterly equal in power and have the same united cabinet office and can only exercise their powers together. If one slot becomes vacant a government can not exist. Even stylistically its rammed home continually its First Minister and deputy First Minister, emphasis on that lower case d. Really the vague implication one position is superior to the other is only still around because the DUP wanted their title to sound better than SF's when they agreed to enter government with them even when factually the positions where equal.
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May 7, 2022 20:44
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gonadic io posted:are the dup gonna continue to just refuse to ever go back to their seat and thus the entire NI government shuts down forever They will happily collapse NI as Westminister will impose direct rule. And who sits in westminister? The DUP. And Sinn Fein won't sit in Parliment either, so the DUP may think they may be able to control NI from London.
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May 7, 2022 21:59
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Their mistake there is assuming that the English Tories still need their votes for anything any more, and consequently give a poo poo about anything that they have to say. They will send some useless empty suits instead.
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May 7, 2022 22:10
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Looking at the parties running locally here in London I was thinking that it'd be pretty funny to run as a Sinn Féin candidate for the Westminster City Council next time around. gently caress all people voted near me, so the sheer comedy might get me a cushy paycheque.
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May 7, 2022 22:18
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happyhippy posted:They will happily collapse NI as Westminister will impose direct rule. And who sits in westminister? The talk that the shinners, Alliance and SDLP are using about people needing to do their jobs is really resonating even with people who vote DUP, though. Obstructing progress on sorting out the health service could really bite them in the rear end
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May 7, 2022 22:30
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Arquinsiel posted:Looking at the parties running locally here in London I was thinking that it'd be pretty funny to run as a Sinn Féin candidate for the Westminster City Council next time around. gently caress all people voted near me, so the sheer comedy might get me a cushy paycheque.
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May 8, 2022 08:10
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