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FishBulbia posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1524087076014145537 Kiev round 2? Or Luka trying to appease puti?
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May 10, 2022 19:34
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Tiny Timbs posted:According to the papers merely returning to the pre-2022 borders would be considered an unrecoverably humiliating defeat that Putin would be willing to nuke the planet over Fake news. What Putin really wants is for overwhelming Western forces to intervene in Ukraine. That'll give him cover to pull out. Edit : Yeah
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May 10, 2022 19:35
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Nenonen posted:What are you even talking about. I'm directly asking you to provide substance to your position that Ukraine is not currently winning by asking you to provide evidence of this. One way to measure that victory or loss would be "are our country's major cities under occupation by the invading army". At this moment, the only city of any kind of importance that is under occupation is Kherson with active liberation operations ongoing nearby.
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May 10, 2022 19:35
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Rigel posted:If this war dragged on indefinitely until either Ukraine was conquered or Russia was driven out, then Ukraine is very likely to win But that is the point - this war dragging on indefinitely is not a desirable thing. Except for internet chickenhawks, it looks like.
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May 10, 2022 19:36
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:There's no tactical or strategic goal nukes could help Putin achieve right now. Blowing up your next door neighbor with weapons that cause fallout . .. doesn't help you either. Yeah, agreed. Breaking the nuclear taboo would also risk alienating every friendly neutral and risk subjecting Russia to something like a full embargo from just about every global player. When you care about regime security that's just not the kind of move you make. It's probably useful to remember that he's so far proving risk averse enough not to consider mobilization, just to get a sense of perspective. Hell, we haven't even seen them use chemical weapons yet.
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May 10, 2022 19:38
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Nenonen posted:But that is the point - this war dragging on indefinitely is not a desirable thing. Good thing the war won't be in an indefinite grind on account of the Ukrainians outperforming the Russian military in pretty much every conceivable metric except for number of war crimes committed per capita.
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May 10, 2022 19:39
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Nenonen posted:But that is the point - this war dragging on indefinitely is not a desirable thing. It doesn't matter what we want. After the atrocities, Ukraine has made it absolutely crystal-clear that they will never agree to cede an inch of territory, including Crimea. And there is no way in hell that NATO is going to pressure Ukraine into giving up land for peace.
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May 10, 2022 19:39
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HonorableTB posted:I'm directly asking you to provide substance to your position that Ukraine is not currently winning by asking you to provide evidence of this. One way to measure that victory or loss would be "are our country's major cities under occupation by the invading army" This is quite a logic. "Hurr durr, I have this list of Ukrainian cities that Russia must capture, otherwise Ukraine automatically wins!"  Soviet Union didn't capture a single major Finnish city during Winter War. Did Finland win? Finland survived but calling it a military victory would be quite something. Do you think that in wars armies try to capture victory points by occupying cities?
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May 10, 2022 19:40
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Nenonen posted:Yes, Finland won the Winter War decisively. Maybe we should have refused to negotiate and not stop fighting? I am no expert, but if I understand correctly most of the nations which were Soviet allies during the Winter War (even if they weren't supporting the invasion of Finland) are now directly sending Ukraine huge amounts of material support including current weapons systems. These same nations have levied severe economic sanctions against Russia, which is a much less self-sufficient economy than 1939 USSR to boot. We might just be disagreeing on what a "win" looks like but it feels like Ukraine is at least on trajectory to end up holding all of the territory it did in January and maybe even more if the will is there.
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May 10, 2022 19:41
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Baronjutter posted:Or at least that's the general sentiment I get from reading a lot of foreign (specially chinese) takes on the war. Big countries dominate smaller ones, smaller ones can be clever and work out less-oppressive deals, but ultimately Ukraine needs to know its place. Ukraine continuing to win would be unnatural and above Ukraine's station. Ukraine needs to know its place and not get big ideas just because of a small thing like "winning".
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May 10, 2022 19:41
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HonorableTB posted:Good thing the war won't be in an indefinite grind on account of the Ukrainians outperforming the Russian military in pretty much every conceivable metric except for number of war crimes committed per capita. yes it will end by next sunday. (the week is in freedman units)
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May 10, 2022 19:42
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Rigel posted:It doesn't matter what we want. After the atrocities, Ukraine has made it absolutely crystal-clear that they will never agree to cede an inch of territory, including Crimea. And there is no way in hell that NATO is going to pressure Ukraine into giving up land for peace. A negotiated peace is probably the only way Ukraine has of ever getting Crimea back but I really think Zelensky is going to have to take the L on that because Ukraine isn't offensively capable of taking Crimea and I can see Putin responding to the threat of losing Sevastopol with Clancychat. Crimea's always been a different core position for him and Russia as opposed to Luhansk and Donetsk. But ultimately I think Crimea is off the table entirely and if Zelensky can get a peace deal with it, great. I'm not saying it's impossible but I am quite skeptical of that being a possibility. Crimea's a core Russian national interest and has been for centuries. Nenonen posted:This is quite a logic. "Hurr durr, I have this list of Ukrainian cities that Russia must capture, otherwise Ukraine automatically wins!" Finland remained more or less independent however you want to define the degree of independence "Finlandization" granted, as a direct result of thrashing the Soviet military so badly, so yes I would say they won the Winter War. They weren't turned into the Suomi Soviet Socialist Republic, after all. You really don't think Stalin wouldn't have absorbed Finland just as he did the others, who weren't able to put up that degree of military resistance? HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 19:45 on May 10, 2022 |
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May 10, 2022 19:43
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Rigel posted:It doesn't matter what we want. After the atrocities, Ukraine has made it absolutely crystal-clear that they will never agree to cede an inch of territory, including Crimea. And there is no way in hell that NATO is going to pressure Ukraine into giving up land for peace. And? Do you still think that it would be better if the war just dragged on and on, instead of both sides reaching some sort of agreement? Notice that I am not saying what that agreement would include, because that's between Ukraine and Russia obviously. I really don't understand this kind of naive absolutism where you first say that it doesn't matter what we think, but then you say that Ukraine must never negotiate.
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May 10, 2022 19:44
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Ynglaur posted:The "don't humiliate them or they'll get mad" is vestiges of Chamberlain's appeasement of the Nazis. The perception among some is that the West were too hard to Germany after WW1, so that made them go Nazi. It turns out the solution wasn't to not humiliate them, it was to break their ability to wage war so thoroughly they never thought about it again. Indeed, it seems Germany still can't bring themselves to consider armed conflict! Nobody broke Germany's will to wage war but Germany itself. No amount of back-breaking sanctions or reparations, but the stark realization what horrors the German people had supported for over a decade. And for Versailles, what could've been done? The treaty itself wasn't particularly punishing, it was the messaging around it (and later the market crash) that was a problem, but there's only so much you can do to break a countries ability to wage war if that country is also the industrial core of the continent
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May 10, 2022 19:45
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I definitely think that a peace will come from a negotiation here, rather than a surrender. Which doesn't mean Ukraine has to give up land. But if you're Zelensky, and Russia comes at you with 'Alright, this 'operation' is costing both of us terrribly, . So here's the deal. We leave the breakaway republics, go back behind our borders, all deported Ukrainians are returned, Russia officially acknowledges Ukraine joins whatever alliance or organization it likes, Ukraine passes some law saying they won't eradicate the Russian language or something so whoever's in charge can go 'we sure defended those Russians' back home. However, Russia keeps Crimea. Recognize it or not is your pick, and might be dependent on a referendum, but if you don't recognize our ownership you promise to use 'diplomacy' to return it. But we're not leaving and if you attack it, we're back at war.' Do you take that deal if you're Zelensky? Assuming you're still very much winning and kicking rear end? Because even kicking rear end has a cost to it in your people's lives. Then again, letting them get away with grabbing Crimea just means that they still made a profit of their imperial adventures. When you're pushed against the wall, and any offered deals are just 'We cut a bit of you now, we save the rest for later' it's easy to say 'no, gently caress you' but when the deal is an actual 'Alright, we're agreeing to let you take the steps that make a repeat of this impossible, but we're not giving back the land that you've been without the last 8 years' it becomes a bit harder a question. Since then it becomes a question not about 'How hard are we willing to fight for our existence as a people' (Answer: Very hard) But 'How hard are we willing to fight for the Crimea' (Answer: ?) even though, and I want to stress this, by all legal rights, it should absolutely be returned to Ukraine.
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May 10, 2022 19:45
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Donkringel posted:As a general barometer for supporting Ukraine, how much are everyone's friends and families still talking about the war? Nearly three months in, is it becoming background chatter, that "thing" going on over there, or are discussions on it being paired as frequently about talks about the weather? Are people still talking/doing about donations, yelling at their congresspeople/councilman? It's still very much front page news here in Ireland. It helps that we have hundreds, maybe over a thousand Ukrainians who fled the war living here in my home town. You can't ignore a war that's driving whole families out of their homes and into your town. They are being made very welcome - collections of useful things like toys, clothes, kitchen equipment etc., got overwhelmed very quickly. A very tiny minority are being shits about it, but they are the types to be shits about anything that involves empathy.
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May 10, 2022 19:46
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HonorableTB posted:A negotiated peace is probably the only way Ukraine has of ever getting Crimea back but I really think Zelensky is going to have to take the L on that because Ukraine isn't offensively capable of taking Crimea and I can see Putin responding to the threat of losing Sevastopol with Clancychat. Crimea's always been a different core position for him and Russia as opposed to Luhansk and Donetsk. But ultimately I think Crimea is off the table entirely and if Zelensky can get a peace deal with it, great. I'm not saying it's impossible but I am quite skeptical of that being a possibility. Crimea's a core Russian national interest and has been for centuries. If its one of those things where Russia agrees to pay for the entire rebuilding effort that will likely run over a trillion dollars (enforced by taking a cut of what would have otherwise gone to Russia on oil and gas sales), then maybe. Given the realities on the ground and how badly Russia's army is doing, Russia will have to "buy" Crimea somehow and "we promise not to invade again" isn't going to cut it.
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May 10, 2022 19:47
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Shogeton posted:I definitely think that a peace will come from a negotiation here, rather than a surrender. Which doesn't mean Ukraine has to give up land. But if you're Zelensky, and Russia comes at you with Honestly, if I was Zelensky, I would take this deal if offered as long as I had western/EU security guarantees. To be offered such a deal would be a victory under circumstances that just 100 days ago had governments sending condolences and offering to set up a Ukrainian government in exile while the rest of the world believed you would be conquered within days. And the unlimited aid faucet will not last forever, realistically. Whether or not Ukrainians would agree with me, as I am not Ukrainian and therefore have different perspective, is a question for any Ukrainians we might have. But lacking that, the Ukrainians we have heard from have resoundingly said "No loss of territory, period, including Crimea", and we should take them at that word until we have a reason to think otherwise
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May 10, 2022 19:48
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Nenonen posted:And? Do you still think that it would be better if the war just dragged on and on, instead of both sides reaching some sort of agreement? Notice that I am not saying what that agreement would include, because that's between Ukraine and Russia obviously. I really don't understand this kind of naive absolutism where you first say that it doesn't matter what we think, but then you say that Ukraine must never negotiate. Well, part of the disconnect is that I don't believe that "indefinite" would last beyond 2022, and you seem to believe Russia still has a chance of total outright victory or at least fighting into next year, which seems very implausible to me (barring nukes which changes everything anyway), but OK.
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May 10, 2022 19:51
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Wuxi posted:Nobody broke Germany's will to wage war but Germany itself. No amount of back-breaking sanctions or reparations, but the stark realization what horrors the German people had supported for over a decade. The treaty of Versailles which completely demilitarized Germany while retaining the military power of the western allies, and levied enormous financial burdens on Germany to prevent them from rebuilding and rearming their country (and enforced these economic burdens through military occupation) wasn't particularly punishing?
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May 10, 2022 19:54
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Nenonen posted:
At this point Ukraine gets the unenviable decision of whether to continue getting Ukrainians killed by Russia in war or to negotiate and let Ukrainians get killed by Russia in "peace" instead. Ukraine has no clear path that does not involve Russians continuing to kill Ukrainians, so they're choosing the route that at least lets them kill Russians back. Does that mean that more Ukrainians die faster? Probably. But it also probably means that Russia is less able to kill as many Ukrainians in the future. Whether or not that's accurate or worth it is an assessment for Ukraine alone to make.
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May 10, 2022 19:55
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You are imagining a reverse of reality. Ukraine is not winning, they are fighting a bitter war against Russia. They are not losing either, but every day more people die. This is not optimal. Nobody is saying that Ukraine should just give up either, but it's extremely unrealistic to think that Ukraine will just miraculously take back Mariupol and other areas any day now. You have the brainworms if you think that this war will end by any other means than negotiations.
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HonorableTB posted:A negotiated peace is probably the only way Ukraine has of ever getting Crimea back but I really think Zelensky is going to have to take the L on that because Ukraine isn't offensively capable of taking Crimea and I can see Putin responding to the threat of losing Sevastopol with Clancychat. Crimea's always been a different core position for him and Russia as opposed to Luhansk and Donetsk. But ultimately I think Crimea is off the table entirely and if Zelensky can get a peace deal with it, great. I'm not saying it's impossible but I am quite skeptical of that being a possibility. Crimea's a core Russian national interest and has been for centuries. Agreed. In fact, Zelensky himself has stated that some occupied territories (the Crimea) cannot be reclaimed by force of arms because it's likely to prompt a nuclear response. That's not to say Ukraine would ever cede their claim to it; just that it's probably going to revert to its pre war modus vivendi of being disputed territory controlled by Russia.
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May 10, 2022 19:59
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I think the real issue will be Russia in 5 or 10 or 20 years. This humiliating loss without Russia actually being occupied and de-nazified will absolutely result in even more pent up bitter revanchism and victim complex. We are going to need to deal with Russia pulling poo poo like this again the moment they can. Occupation and regime change is impossible against a nuclear power, and I worry any internal revolution would be a coup be an even more revanchist fascist psychopath movement. What the hell is the world going to do with Russia in the long term?
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May 10, 2022 20:02
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The Vietnam War lasted twenty years. Should the Vietnamese have given up in month 3 of ~240 and accepted foreign imperial rule to save lives? Protracting and extending wars is how "lesser" powers defeat "greater" powers.
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May 10, 2022 20:03
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Baronjutter posted:I think the real issue will be Russia in 5 or 10 or 20 years. This humiliating loss without Russia actually being occupied and de-nazified will absolutely result in even more pent up bitter revanchism and victim complex. We are going to need to deal with Russia pulling poo poo like this again the moment they can. Occupation and regime change is impossible against a nuclear power, and I worry any internal revolution would be a coup be an even more revanchist fascist psychopath movement. What the hell is the world going to do with Russia in the long term? I think this was already the case, as shown by the Ukraine invasion. Had it gone well you can guarantee that it would be repeated over and over until it stopped working. Well, it has stopped working so maybe this is what will stop them. Also worth mentioning that Putin is pretty old and not in great health. Maybe in 10 years we'll be taking about how to deal with more of his aggression, but there's at least an equal chance we'll be dealing with the chaos of his succession.
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May 10, 2022 20:08
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Shogeton posted:I definitely think that a peace will come from a negotiation here, rather than a surrender. Which doesn't mean Ukraine has to give up land. But if you're Zelensky, and Russia comes at you with Ukraine would have to accelerate the offensive from Kharkiv and start pushing back in the south and Donbas too. And if it's going well enough, well, the Crimean situation would be worse for Russia too.
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May 10, 2022 20:08
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A good indication that Russia is not losing the war is that the nukes have not been dropped. If Russia were going to lose the war and are facing what Putin has described as an existential threat to the Russian nation (Ukraine as a member of NATO, Russia weakened to the point that they could not repel a NATO invasion) the nukes will drop. Then at that point you will all know that Ukraine has officially won the war just prior to being wiped off the face of the earth as all of humanity gets to experience nuclear Armageddon.
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May 10, 2022 20:14
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Nenonen posted:
That's not what I said. I was responding to various European politicians voicing concerns about not humiliating Russia. Basically I think it's a bullshit, cowardly position, and does not in fact solve the threat. Being nice to bullies doesn't work, in personal life or in politics.
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May 10, 2022 20:14
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Ukraine is not in a position to either force a humiliating peace on Russia (like WW1) or to cut Russia into pieces (like WW2)... if we are discussing fantasy scenarios then how about Ukraine occupying Russia and Putin going into hiding, until he's found from a hole in ground and then hanged?????? 
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It's silly to discuss if a peace would include Crimea or not at this point. It's not a realistic scenario at all at the moment. What's critical is what happens if Putin offers an immediate cease fire, just planning to keep what he has occupied so far. I can't imagine Ukraine accepting this currently, but voices from the west might force them to do so. That's why statements like those from Macron seem dangerous to me.
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May 10, 2022 20:16
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uPen posted:The treaty of Versailles which completely demilitarized Germany while retaining the military power of the western allies, and levied enormous financial burdens on Germany to prevent them from rebuilding and rearming their country (and enforced these economic burdens through military occupation) wasn't particularly punishing? The war left Russia shambles, dismantled Austria-Hungary and left France at least partially in ruins, while Germany still remained the industrial heart of the continent with a much higher population. War reparations were essentially just that - payment for a war fought entirely on non-German soil. They could also be paid in material or goods, encouraging industrial growth to pay for them. Military restrictions were only impactful because of one thing: Millions of veterans without anything to do. Disarmament was irrelevant. Austria-Hungary was dead, Russia was busy and none of the new eastern european countries were capable of taking on a disarmed Germany, if they even had any plans for that. With the western allies they were at peace and French military occupation like in the Ruhr didn't do anything besides killing a few civilians and embolden right-wing sentiment further. Compare the treaty to what France wanted or even what Germany took from Russia two years earlier. It was a middle ground treaty that was just harsh enough to stoke nationalistic sentiments and just easy enough on Germany to not hinder it from pursuing revanchist ideas.
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May 10, 2022 20:18
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Starsfan posted:A good indication that Russia is not losing the war is that the nukes have not been dropped. If Russia were going to lose the war and are facing what Putin has described as an existential threat to the Russian nation (Ukraine as a member of NATO, Russia weakened to the point that they could not repel a NATO invasion) the nukes will drop. Then at that point you will all know that Ukraine has officially won the war just prior to being wiped off the face of the earth as all of humanity gets to experience nuclear Armageddon. sorry Ukrainians, guess you just gotta let yourself get genocided for the good of the humanity
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May 10, 2022 20:21
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Starsfan posted:A good indication that Russia is not losing the war is that the nukes have not been dropped. If Russia were going to lose the war and are facing what Putin has described as an existential threat to the Russian nation (Ukraine as a member of NATO, Russia weakened to the point that they could not repel a NATO invasion) the nukes will drop. Then at that point you will all know that Ukraine has officially won the war just prior to being wiped off the face of the earth as all of humanity gets to experience nuclear Armageddon. This is incorrect. Putin knows there is no fundemental external threat to his regime for that very reason. I simply do not foresee any lasting peace at this time with the current regime in Moscow. Unless something changes in Russia the status quo and the war continues. As a side, how is the Kadyrov's tiktok brigade doing? I havnt seen anything from them posted in a while.
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May 10, 2022 20:21
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the holy poopacy posted:sorry Ukrainians, guess you just gotta let yourself get genocided for the good of the humanity yeah the world is a cruel place, I'm sure a lot of people have had similar thoughts in a lot of different situations in the past. It is what it is. The international community should do everything in their power to support Ukraine to negotiate the best peace possible that meets the minimum conditions to satisfy Russia and end this stupid war.
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May 10, 2022 20:23
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Starsfan posted:yeah the world is a cruel place, I'm sure a lot of people have had similar thoughts in a lot of different situations in the past. It is what it is. good news! it won't be for much longer
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May 10, 2022 20:23
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Starsfan posted:A good indication that Russia is not losing the war is that the nukes have not been dropped. If Russia were going to lose the war and are facing what Putin has described as an existential threat to the Russian nation (Ukraine as a member of NATO, Russia weakened to the point that they could not repel a NATO invasion) the nukes will drop. Then at that point you will all know that Ukraine has officially won the war just prior to being wiped off the face of the earth as all of humanity gets to experience nuclear Armageddon. I don't believe Russia ever drops nukes because of Ukraine, up to and including losing all of Ukraine and seeing their army get completely pushed back into Russia. The lack of nukes being used is not an indicator of anything other than Putin wants to continue to live.
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May 10, 2022 20:23
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Starsfan posted:A good indication that Russia is not losing the war is that the nukes have not been dropped. If Russia were going to lose the war and are facing what Putin has described as an existential threat to the Russian nation (Ukraine as a member of NATO, Russia weakened to the point that they could not repel a NATO invasion) the nukes will drop. Then at that point you will all know that Ukraine has officially won the war just prior to being wiped off the face of the earth as all of humanity gets to experience nuclear Armageddon. lol Russia couldn't have repelled a NATO invasion before the war, they certainly can't now. It's a very stupid metric.
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May 10, 2022 20:24
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Starsfan posted:The international community should do everything in their power to support Ukraine to negotiate the best peace possible that meets the minimum conditions to satisfy Russia and end this stupid war. Or we keep funding and supplying Ukraine until the Russians give up. The rapists dont deserve anything.
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May 10, 2022 20:25
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Frankly the Russians appear to be in an impossible situation of their own making, and only a negotiated withdrawal will end it. Their military is devastated, their political power is wrecked, their skilled workers are fleeing, and their economy is teetering on collapse. Meanwhile, the US just signed a Lend-Lease Act, Canada, Germany, France, and Britain are sending billions of dollars worth of military aid to Ukraine, and collectively NATO could keep this up for years, if need be. Scholz and Macron are openly supporting Ukraine take the lead in any negotiated settlement. The idea that Russia can force a military surrender at this point is simply out of touch.
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May 10, 2022 20:26
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Rigel posted:It doesn't matter what we want. After the atrocities, Ukraine has made it absolutely crystal-clear that they will never agree to cede an inch of territory, including Crimea. And there is no way in hell that NATO is going to pressure Ukraine into giving up land for peace. This is the part I don't get. The complete collapse of Afghanistan proved that there's nothing the US can do to make anyone be willing to fight if they don't have the will for it. The US can lean on Ukraine one way or the other, but at the end of the day if they want to surrender or not it's up to them and them alone. And it sure seems like Ukrainians as a whole greatly support continuing to defend their homes.
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May 10, 2022 20:28
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Rigel posted:I don't believe Russia ever drops nukes because of Ukraine, up to and including losing all of Ukraine and seeing their army get completely pushed back into Russia. The lack of nukes being used is not an indicator of anything other than Putin wants to continue to live. I was being a little bit sarcastic about the nukes dropping = ukraine winning thing, but Russia has been pretty consistent for decades now on the way things are going to be in eastern Europe and what they view as the circumstances under which the Russian state can continue to exist. You can say that you don't think they would do it, I'm not so certain if they feel that they can't achieve their objectives by any other means. Granted a large part of the reason that we haven't had a nuclear exchange to this date is that the Russians have historically been the more sane and willing to back down of the two great powers, but I have no clue if that's still the case and it's a hell of a gamble to make.
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May 10, 2022 20:28
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