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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The Fed is independent and the President doesn't set monetary policy (see: Carter, Jimmy and Trump, Donald yelling at them to lower rates). Uh huh  And it's not Trump's fault that DeJoy hosed with mail-in voting or that the supreme court is overturning abortion because the Postal Board of Governors or the US Supreme Court are independent and the President doesn't set policy or dictate legal decisions E: but yes the recession lasted until 83, nice to follow almost the same timeline ensuring whatever republican wins in 2024 will have time to whether a bad midterm before winning in a landslide off taking credit for ending the Yellen Recession VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 16:12 on May 11, 2022 |
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May 11, 2022 16:04
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VitalSigns posted:Wasn't the Volker recession what sank Carter because everyone (rightly) blamed him for it and (wrongly) hoped Reagan would fix it because he was the other guy I think biden and his team still believe a "soft landing" is possible. The messaging out of them is so disconnected from what has been happening it is astonishing. Going into the midterms we will most likely be coming out of a summer of record gas and diesel prices, possible recession (q2 numbers have to be negative yo be "official"), a stock market that at the moment is seemingly in a '00/'08 style drawdown, higher unemployment (fed governers confirmed this week thiswill be happening), and persistent and possibly higher inflation. This doesn't include hypotheticals like housing crash and bank failures that depend on how certain situations play out. Who knows though. Maybe everything will turn out fine, but at the moment every possible indicator says otherwise.
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May 11, 2022 16:12
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VitalSigns posted:Uh huh If Jimmy Carter had a crystal ball, he probably would have nominated someone else. Once someone is confirmed to the Fed, there is jack poo poo the president or anyone else can do to stop him from voting the way he wants. By contrast, DeJoy was picked specifically to do what he did, and Trump was pleased with his "service".
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May 11, 2022 16:14
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Rigel posted:If Jimmy Carter had a crystal ball, he probably would have nominated someone else. You don't actually know that, and appointing someone who will take the heat for doing an unpopular thing while you tweet "omg this thing is so bad DO SOMETHING!!" is the oldest trick in the book. The czars loved doing that poo poo. If Carter genuinely had no idea who he was nominating or why or what they believed for such an important then he was incompetent and that still makes the consequences his fault. Being stupid is disqualifying for a president too, you don't have to be evil to suck poo poo and gently caress everything up. But that is unlikely because corporate America wanted a recession to crush labour's share of national income and restore flagging rates of profit, and Carter was installed to do their bidding, as was Reagan, so it beggars belief that it wasn't done on purpose though maybe Carter regretted how unpopular it made him in hindsight His party also controlled congress so if he really regretted it that bad they could have changed the law but they didn't so VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 16:23 on May 11, 2022 |
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May 11, 2022 16:20
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Bunch of fresh new polling out today; these are the results that caught my eye. 1. From Reuters/Ipsos:  2. From MorningConsult:  Amazing that after "healthcare reform" was passed 12 years ago that 42 percent of voters say that it's important for Congress to pass a healthcare reform bill, including a solid majority of Democrats.  3. From YouGov:   Both YouGov & MorningConsult had a bunch of questions about whether abortion should be legal under various circumstances and, as with other polls, these show that pro-legal sentiment is extremely conditional, depending on the reasons for the abortion & the length of pregnancy.
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May 11, 2022 16:25
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VitalSigns posted:Uh huh If the President controlled the Fed, then Volker would definitely not have pushed the pain of taming inflation right before Carter's re-election. Trump also spend months yelling at the Fed to lower rates following his tax cuts to "supercharge" the economy. VitalSigns posted:You don't actually know that, and appointing someone who will take the heat for doing an unpopular thing while you tweet "omg this thing is so bad DO SOMETHING!!" is the oldest trick in the book. The czars loved doing that poo poo. The entire point of the FED (and every central bank) is to take monetary policy away from the political side and fulfill its dual mandate, which is sometimes unpopular. Otherwise, we'd just have printing sprees right before every election. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:30 on May 11, 2022 |
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May 11, 2022 16:28
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VitalSigns posted:You don't actually know that, and appointing someone who will take the heat for doing an unpopular thing while you tweet "omg this thing is so bad DO SOMETHING!!" is the oldest trick in the book. The czars loved doing that poo poo. Well, couple things. There is not even the slightest chance in hell Carter wanted the Fed to fight inflation that aggressively right before his re-election, unless you are trying to argue that Carter didn't really care all that much about winning in 1980. Also, sometimes the Fed has to raise interest rates for objectively good reasons and they may even have to do it aggressively. Congress never wants this to happen for purely selfish reasons, which is why they are independent. You want the members to be intelligent and competent, not political cronies who will do your bidding. Finally, what the Fed did in hindsight was absolutely necessary and the correct thing to do. It sucked for Carter, but from his standpoint he would only have preferred that they wait until after his re-election campaign was over, but interest rates had to be jacked up.
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May 11, 2022 16:32
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Mr Hootington posted:I think biden and his team still believe a "soft landing" is possible. The messaging out of them is so disconnected from what has been happening it is astonishing. How is the stock market is in an "'08 style drawdown" other than just seeing "number go down recently"? Because the actual reasons and fundamentals of the drop in '08 are basically the exact opposite of what is happening right now. People putting their money in equities during a pandemic with no other outlet and those equities skyrocketing up in value to fall down to earth (with no fundamental difference in performance by the company itself - or in many cases an increase in performance) is not a 2008-style credit collapse and liquidity crisis. It's essentially the opposite where there was too much liquidity and nowhere else to put it for a while. Even in the aggregate objective sense, an index rising +45% year over year and then "falling" down to "only" rising +29% net annually over a period of 6 months has a very different impact than multiple S&P500 companies being wiped off the index and a negative 51% annual return that all happened in two weeks.
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May 11, 2022 16:40
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:How is the stock market is in an "'08 style drawdown" other than just seeing "number go down recently"? Liquidity is drying up. What little there is seems to be coming from retail investors. This will get worse as rates rise. The Everything Bubble is popping.
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May 11, 2022 16:52
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Rigel posted:Well, couple things. There is not even the slightest chance in hell Carter wanted the Fed to fight inflation that aggressively right before his re-election, unless you are trying to argue that Carter didn't really care all that much about winning in 1980. Your argument then is that people were wrong to be mad at Carter instead of appreciating his correctness, which is a different argument from what you are trying to disprove which is whether he was responsible for it, of course he was.
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May 11, 2022 16:52
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Mr Hootington posted:Services is a tidal wave of demand shifting from goods into that sector. There is also services having to cover costs from goods rising. Thanks for this detailed explanation, and for your other knowledgeable posts itt. It makes sense that inflation would hit the service sector now given the context you provided.
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May 11, 2022 16:56
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Politico did a piece on the infant-formula shortage a few days ago:quote:Carter has been urging parents and caregivers to contact members of Congress to put pressure on the government to help fix the dwindling supply by facilitating production at another facility. Carter and her sister set up a website to get caregivers organized last week and has already gotten over 4,000 visits.
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May 11, 2022 17:03
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The problem seems to be that the pain of economic policy is never felt by those who possess money and that, increasingly, the dividends of everything else are funnelled upward so much that any economic policy looks stupid from the ground.
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May 11, 2022 17:03
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Josef bugman posted:The problem seems to be that the pain of economic policy is never felt by those who possess money and that, increasingly, the dividends of everything else are funnelled upward so much that any economic policy looks stupid from the ground. I'd say that it's correct that, given neoliberal economic assumptions, the only acceptable goal of economic policy is to keep the rate of profit from falling, and the only tool available to curb inflation when it's eating into it too much is to increase the cost of borrowing and kick off a recession to increase unemployment so wages drop and immiserate the population to the point that they can't afford to maintain their standard of living and demand and thus prices drop. That I think is 100% correct. It's also why neoliberalism is monstrous. It's also not the only paradigm. Nixon dealt with inflation a different way, so did FDR. They also had different goals: full employment instead of low inflation VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 17:20 on May 11, 2022 |
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May 11, 2022 17:17
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VitalSigns posted:I'd say that it's correct that, given neoliberal economic assumptions, the only acceptable goal of economic policy is to keep the rate of profit from falling, and the only tool available to curb inflation when it's eating into it too much is to increase the cost of borrowing and kick off a recession to immiserate the population to the point that they can't afford to maintain their standard of living and demand and thus prices drop. That I think is 100% correct. If the fed were trying to please capital 100% of the time, then they would never have risen rates in the 70's. People with assets are the ones whose currency reserves are the least impacted by inflation and entities borrowing at the prime rate are banks or organizations with large collateral.
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May 11, 2022 17:21
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Josef bugman posted:The problem seems to be that the pain of economic policy is never felt by those who possess money and that, increasingly, the dividends of everything else are funnelled upward so much that any economic policy looks stupid from the ground.
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May 11, 2022 17:21
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:If the fed were trying to please capital 100% of the time, then they would never have risen rates in the 70's. People with assets are the ones whose currency reserves are the least impacted by inflation and entities borrowing at the prime rate are banks or organizations with large collateral. In a vacuum sure they'd prefer low interest rates to high, but in reality the tight labor market was eating into returns too much and something had to be done urgently, there's always tradeoffs in business
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May 11, 2022 17:27
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https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1524399029148426241?s=20&t=U-W7pQNbOuEQUl6JlK57Zw Durbin taking court expansion completely off the table, one can only assume because it would be effective in combatting the threat and they have very important fundraising emails to send.
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May 11, 2022 17:37
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Good thing we cracked down on opioids for people in pain, and that mental-health treatment is affordable & accessible in this country:quote:More than 107,600 Americans died from drug overdoses last year, the highest annual death toll on record, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-says-drug-overdose-deaths-reached-highest-record-last-year-rcna28129
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May 11, 2022 17:38
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GoutPatrol posted:They have been unbanned. Even when they were banned none of you enforced it so what do threadbans matter? Good job retroactively making the moderator inaction OK I guess.
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May 11, 2022 17:50
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Bishyaler posted:https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1524399029148426241?s=20&t=U-W7pQNbOuEQUl6JlK57Zw So instead we'll get the bait and switch, even if they get 52 senators (they won't) they'll still say "oops not enough Democrats this is your fault for not giving us 60"
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May 11, 2022 17:51
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Willa Rogers posted:Politico did a piece on the infant-formula shortage a few days ago: It's interesting that the people affiliated with the earlier push against the FDA foods division are completely absent from this coverage. Note that when the article says "Neither FDA nor Abbott will answer specific questions about the status of the investigation or what the plan is to reopen the facility", the answer is FDA legally can't, and Abbott is choosing not to. It seems likely that at least some of this was generated by Abbott to shift blame, and that the facility was in considerably worse shape than it first appeared. For some further context, here's the first voluntary recall (note this language is written by Abbott): https://www.fda.gov/safety/recalls-market-withdrawals-safety-alerts/abbott-voluntarily-recalls-powder-formulas-manufactured-one-plant Here's a later expanded recall (also written by Abbott): https://www.fda.gov/safety/recalls-market-withdrawals-safety-alerts/abbott-voluntarily-expands-recall-powder-formulas-manufactured-one-plant Here's the actual FDA inspection report with list of issues detected: https://www.fda.gov/media/157073/download Other Politico coverage refers to a routine inspection that occurred earlier and turned up problems, but nothing warranting a stoppage. I can't be certain, but my guess is this was probably conducted by state contractors. Due to a lack of funding, FDA subcontracts a lot of food inspection to state public health employees, which results in wildly inconsistent inspection detail. Here's the FDA press release that's functionally a response to the politico article. Note that FDA has little formal power to expand supply or availability here other than further deregulating (which is obviously in tension with infant formula safety goals), and asking industry to do things. One thing FDA's been asking for for some time (which I do think is mentioned in the politico article) is for specific legislated power to address potential concentrations of sourcing in the supply chain and their resultant supply weaknesses. It's not clear what that would look like, though.
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May 11, 2022 18:19
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:If the fed were trying to please capital 100% of the time, then they would never have risen rates in the 70's. People with assets are the ones whose currency reserves are the least impacted by inflation and entities borrowing at the prime rate are banks or organizations with large collateral. ??? Inflation hurts asset holders (the value of your assets decline in real terms) and helps people with debt because of the same reason, the nominal value stays the same and the real value goes down. What you're saying is objectively false.
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May 11, 2022 18:23
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rscott posted:??? Inflation hurts asset holders (the value of your assets decline in real terms) and helps people with debt because of the same reason, the nominal value stays the same and the real value goes down. What you're saying is objectively false. Only if the nominal value of an asset is fixed. Very few assets have fixed nominal prices. Your stocks will appreciate relative to inflation. Fiat currency will not. If I have $10,000 in S&P500 Index funds today and someone else has $10,000 in U.S. currency, only one of us will be able to parlay that asset into an increased real value after 5 years of 10% inflation YoY. Creditors/Debtors have a different dynamic because the nominal value of a loan is fixed. Your 50k mortgage doesn't increase to 55k when inflation is 10%.
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May 11, 2022 18:27
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Bishyaler posted:https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1524399029148426241?s=20&t=U-W7pQNbOuEQUl6JlK57Zw Seems like the Manchin Cycle diagrams need to be updated.
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May 11, 2022 18:30
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B B posted:Seems like the Manchin Cycle diagrams need to be updated. The Manchin-Durbin Sinematic cycle
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May 11, 2022 18:32
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Lib and let die posted:The Manchin-Durbin Sinematic cycle (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 11, 2022 18:39
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Only if the nominal value of an asset is fixed. Very few assets have fixed nominal prices. A lot of assets actually have a fixed value what are you talking about? Every single debt that someone has is someone else's asset. Same thing with bonds. I'm not even sure what you're talking about with the S&P, especially given your assumption that a historical rate of return is applicable to the future and its tenuous relationship to inflation. Edit: like what you're saying is so ahistorical that I'm wondering if you're not back on your trolling kick because like, the whole reason why the recovery post GFC was so anemic is because central banks all over the western world prioritized combatting inflation to preserve the assets of capital holders over restoring demand rscott fucked around with this message at 18:42 on May 11, 2022 |
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May 11, 2022 18:39
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cat botherer posted:As soon as we replace these Yeah, I think we could. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 11, 2022 18:42
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How are u posted:Yeah, I think we could.
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May 11, 2022 18:55
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Even if they got their 60 senators they would figure out a new goalpost to move
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May 11, 2022 18:59
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How are u posted:Yeah, I think we could. What is this based on other than hope? What is it that has filled you with confidence in the democratic party over the last few weeks and months?
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May 11, 2022 19:03
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Josef bugman posted:What is this based on other than hope? What is it that has filled you with confidence in the democratic party over the last few weeks and months? Abortion is about to become illegal in more than half the states in the Union. That's a change in material conditions from the past 50 years. The situation has changed, and so the response has an opportunity to change. If you want promises that everything will magically get better you won't get them from me. I have hope that through hard work, direct action, and intense organizing things can be made better. I don't think that anything in life is guaranteed.
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May 11, 2022 19:07
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FlamingLiberal posted:Even if they got their 60 senators they would figure out a new goalpost to move Even if they had 60, just one could say "nah, no reason to end the debate on this one" and the bill fails
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May 11, 2022 19:10
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How are u posted:Abortion is about to become illegal in more than half the states in the Union. That's a change in material conditions from the past 50 years. The situation has changed, and so the response has an opportunity to change. People tried hard work and direct action outside Kavanaugh's house and the Democrat leadership scolded them for it, then worked with Republicans to rush a law to up security on SCOTUS.
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May 11, 2022 19:12
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:A bunch of people who served on the Board of Pardons with Fetterman came out to say what a jerk he was and how bad of a job he did, but accidentally make him sound awesome.
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May 11, 2022 19:13
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FlamingLiberal posted:Even if they got their 60 senators they would figure out a new goalpost to move "the heel cycle" "ooooh we would have everything we need if it weren't for *spins giant wheel*..."
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May 11, 2022 19:13
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theCalamity posted:Even if they had 60, just one could say "nah, no reason to end the debate on this one" and the bill fails There would not be a cloture vote with a 60-vote minimum if Roe v Wade was such an immense game changing GOP bloodbath that we actually got to 60 Dem Senators.
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May 11, 2022 19:15
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Bishyaler posted:People tried hard work and direct action outside Kavanaugh's house and the Democrat leadership scolded them for it, then worked with Republicans to rush a law to up security on SCOTUS. Ok? So you think people should just stop, then? I hope people keep it up, and I expect them to.
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May 11, 2022 19:17
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Judge strikes down Florida governor’s ‘unconstitutional’ election map Blow to Ron DeSantis as judge says new congressional districts made it harder for Black voters to elect their preferred candidates https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/11/florida-election-congressional-map-ron-desantis-judge quote:A state judge struck down new congressional districts in north Florida on Wednesday, saying that Governor Ron DeSantis, who drew the lines, had made it harder for Black voters to elect the candidate of their choice. Florida gerrymandering saga continues.
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May 11, 2022 19:19
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