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Zat posted:Finland and Sweden will almost certainly apply next week. Is there any likelihood of existing NATO members stalling their acceptance to wring some concessions?
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May 11, 2022 20:48
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Xiahou Dun posted:I’m just some rear end in a top hat who reads the thread but my read is “Finland is de facto in NATO already, there’s just the international treaty equivalent of paperwork processing to get through ; Sweden isn’t as locked in, but if you imagine Finland is just waiting for the bureaucracy to chug along then Sweden has the form in front of them and just has to fill it out and sign it”. Ulf posted:Is there any likelihood of existing NATO members stalling their acceptance to wring some concessions?
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May 11, 2022 20:48
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Ulf posted:Is there any likelihood of existing NATO members stalling their acceptance to wring some concessions? Croatia's president if he gets the chance (and it's a big if), otherwise no.
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May 11, 2022 20:51
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d64 posted:While I think it's highly likely that both countries will apply, possibly announcing it tomorrow or in the coming days, I'm still not 100% certain about Sweden. It would in fact be in its own way hilarious and yet another gently caress you from Sweden to Finland if they decided that considering all, it is not in their best interest to join at this time... Yeah, I'm guessing part of the question would be how much Turkey would want to push it right now, given that they have already been somewhat in NATO's doghouse due to the S-400 deal.
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May 11, 2022 21:03
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Yeah, I'm guessing part of the question would be how much Turkey would want to push it right now, given that they have already been somewhat in NATO's doghouse due to the S-400 deal. I feel like the combination of the TB2s and the closing of the Strait of Istanbul has bought them quite a bit of credit. That said, I'd hope that petty disputes don't get in the way of strengthening NATO at a time like this.
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May 11, 2022 21:06
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poo poo set the tank to "rinse" https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/11/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-OISXR7UYUFFIZBB4STXELYDU44 Despera fucked around with this message at 21:28 on May 11, 2022 |
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May 11, 2022 21:11
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Despera posted:poo poo sent the tank to "rinse" So that's why they're stealing household appliances!
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May 11, 2022 21:17
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Blue Raider posted:Those Oryx guys are gonna write a really cool book about the material aspect of this war when the dust clears. Followed by their book on the truth of 1915
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May 11, 2022 21:17
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Ulf posted:Is there any likelihood of existing NATO members stalling their acceptance to wring some concessions? Bizarrely, the Croatian president has been talking about doing just that, due to something involving Bosnia. I don't even remember what the issue was, but it had nothing to do with NATO or Ukraine. Fortunately, as far as I understand the process, he won't get the opportunity to actually block anything.
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May 11, 2022 21:17
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Ulf posted:Is there any likelihood of existing NATO members stalling their acceptance to wring some concessions? Could happen but latest estimates are that this is unlikely. Some pundit was saying that ultimately the US will lean on all the other members to get the applications through without too much bullshit Re Finland & NATO, Finnish president made a good point well imo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhLNBxpo8zY
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May 11, 2022 21:22
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d64 posted:While I think it's highly likely that both countries will apply, possibly announcing it tomorrow or in the coming days, I'm still not 100% certain about Sweden. It would in fact be in its own way hilarious and yet another gently caress you from Sweden to Finland if they decided that considering all, it is not in their best interest to join at this time... The polling in Sweden shows a reasonable lead for joining, but this lead increases noticeably if the situation changes from just "let's join" to "Finland already joined, should we join too", so there's that
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May 11, 2022 21:24
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Finns, Norway here. If Sweden doesn't join, let's take it.
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May 11, 2022 21:26
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Ola posted:Finns, Norway here. If Sweden doesn't join, let's take it. Little green men pop up in Scania, and it rejoins Denmark after a 'referendum'
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May 11, 2022 21:29
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"Sweden" never existed, it was just a fever dream of that rebel Wasa.
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May 11, 2022 21:32
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I'm ready to reopen the Schleswig-Holstein Question.
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May 11, 2022 21:33
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Yeah Sweden will probably join even if I'm not super happy about it myself. I don't see the need for it, and if there's a need for it, we can wait for the election this year to get a democratic mandate behind it. I mean you have not followed any news the last three months if you somehow believe that Russia would cross the Baltic Sea and successfully invade Stockholm within the next four months. But people are dumb and just today there was a retired major general going on in media about how you should keep supplies stored because you never know when Ivan's going to parachute into your backyard, god dammit. 70% of voters have been scared by... somewhat irrational news reporting about how much a threat Russia still is for Sweden, so every party that wants to do well in this year's elections are going to cheer for Nato membership. It's a bit strange given that it was considered an extremely huge choice before, as in "this will AT LEAST need a referendum" and no parties were seriously pushing it as an election issue. So there is merit to the protest that there's no clear mandate for joining, really. That said, media is more or less pushing for joining, most party leaders are pushing for it, and they're openly whipping their parties to just shut up and get on with it. You mostly see letters to the editors from non-politicians or more grassroot level people protesting against joining, it feels very much a done deal that's being rushed through. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 21:41 on May 11, 2022 |
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May 11, 2022 21:37
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jaete posted:Could happen but latest estimates are that this is unlikely. Some pundit was saying that ultimately the US will lean on all the other members to get the applications through without too much bullshit Yeah, it needs to be repeated that the majority of the Finns do not actually want to join NATO. The USA is not and has not been very popular and participating in military conflicts abroad even less so. And, frankly, my gut feeling is that a vast majority would really like to get along with Russia: trade with them, go on vacations there, eat well and drink even better, enjoy some high culture, play hockey... Now Putin and his gang have ruined it all. However decadent westerners we've become, the Finns as a whole are still good at suffering through unpleasant things in order to survive. Yeah, we are going to ally with NATO. Screw that dictator.
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May 11, 2022 21:40
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lilljonas posted:Yeah Sweden will probably join even if I'm not super happy about it myself. I don't see the need for it, and if there's a need for it, we can wait for the election this year to get a democratic mandate behind it. I mean you have not followed any news the last three months if you somehow believe that Russia would cross the Baltic Sea and successfully invade Stockholm within the next four months. What are the downsides of joining? I don't mean that flippantly, I'm genuinely interested in a Swede's opinion on why Sweden *shouldn't* join NATO given all that's happened.
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May 11, 2022 21:40
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NO gently caress YOU DAD posted:What are the downsides of joining? I don't mean that flippantly, I'm genuinely interested in a Swede's opinion on why Sweden *shouldn't* join NATO given all that's happened. Theres the 2% GDP defense spending "requirement". Also nobody is invading sweden but with article 5 sweden might be forced into unpopular foreign war
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May 11, 2022 21:43
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RE: Bridging gently caress up That is insane to me. I was an XO for a U.S. army bridge company for a few years and the dollar value attached to that kind of equipment would make tax payers poo poo themselves in rage. Armies generally know how valuable it is so like to only do wetgap crossing at night and under heavy smoke delivered from artillery. That smoke is a make or break. We literally will not attempt a crossing without it. Additionally, before attempting a bridge at all you want to raft across a forward security element to engage the guys waiting to blow up your bridge. All that plus constant supporting IDF, aviation and recon. This is a really complex operation and generally reserved for brigade HQs and above due to the coordination required. European armies are much, much better at this than the U.S., with much more modern equipment as well. We sometimes borrow their poo poo when we train in Europe due to the better quality.
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May 11, 2022 21:44
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So a Pro-russian youtube channel did a little presentation on how the Russians don't have enough manpower in the east to do what they want to do - loosely translated snip below https://twitter.com/divan_division/status/1524271739445907456?s=20&t=oG7s67oVHV7mLDWla_isgQ But where did they get their numbers? Apparently from one of the same OS-INT dudes that we have come up in this thread https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1524462737966964740?s=20&t=oG7s67oVHV7mLDWla_isgQ https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1524472517901045763?s=20&t=oG7s67oVHV7mLDWla_isgQ I thought it was interesting 
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May 11, 2022 21:48
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Phlegmish posted:Bizarrely, the Croatian president has been talking about doing just that, due to something involving Bosnia. I don't even remember what the issue was, but it had nothing to do with NATO or Ukraine. Fortunately, as far as I understand the process, he won't get the opportunity to actually block anything. His claim -- and I can't evaluate the merit -- is that Bosnia's electoral institutions are setup in a way that impedes Croat minority rights in Bosnia. So yes, nothing to do with Finland, Sweden, NATO, or Ukraine. Completely bizarre brinksmanship, and I would think pretty bad game theory on his part.
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May 11, 2022 21:54
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Despera posted:Theres the 2% GDP defense spending "requirement". Also nobody is invading sweden but with article 5 sweden might be forced into unpopular foreign war Yeah, good thing about the scare quotes, because many countries have not been hitting that target for decades but none of them was ever kicked out for it.
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May 11, 2022 21:57
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NO gently caress YOU DAD posted:What are the downsides of joining? I don't mean that flippantly, I'm genuinely interested in a Swede's opinion on why Sweden *shouldn't* join NATO given all that's happened. This is borderline scandi thread but basically we've been neutral for 200 years and looking back two centuries, that has been a good idea far more often than it has been a bad idea. Sweden's geographical position has meant that we've been less threatened, not more, by not being in a military alliance. Basically joining NATO is in certain ways (like in a theoretical nuclear conflict) draw more of a bullseye on us than if we stay neutral. Especially when Russia IS NOT a viable threat to Sweden now, far less so even than it was in February this year. The hurry is artificial and the threat is overblown. If we needed to hurry into NATO at any point it would have been in January this year, definitely not now. The second point is that NATO includes a lot of countries that have been in very questionable wars and I would not like to go to war for them for an article 5. Again, looking back two centuries, a big learning point is that country leadership rarely expect how military alliances will resolve when poo poo hits the fan. I know article 5 is only for "defensive war" and people always say that there are tons of loopholes to article 5, but most major military conflicts have black swan events that nobody expected. I'm not looking forward to a bigger risk of going to war for some of NATOs more villainous members. Finally NATO is, partly, a lobby a vehicle for fuelling the MIC. We've been doing fine with less than 2% of GDP on military spending in periods of lower threats.
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May 11, 2022 21:57
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NO gently caress YOU DAD posted:What are the downsides of joining? I don't mean that flippantly, I'm genuinely interested in a Swede's opinion on why Sweden *shouldn't* join NATO given all that's happened. As a computer geek would say: legacy issues. Plenty of Swedes, as indeed plenty of Europeans, are skeptical to American influence over Europe. And NATO is America + entourage, let's be fair. During the 60s and 70s, this had a whole different pitch, the US was much less the beacon of freedom that they themselves thought they were, due in no little way by how they conducted themselves abroad. The way Russia is behaving now is directly influenced by American adventurism after all, specifically in order to find credibility. And I'll be sure to add, not because how America behaved in the 60s and 70s, but in the 2000s. So add that skepticism to "Russia will be pissed off", "we'll have less autonomy" and in the case of Sweden, "we used to be a drat empire". But in practice, I think the arguments of the past have died out, and Putin has killed them. There is no cold war anymore, there is no big ideology fight, there is just a big dictator that has been allowed to fester in our midst. NATO is no empire, it's as Russia correctly states and anti-Russia alliance just like a fire extinguisher is not an empire of extinguishing but an anti-fire device. It is specifically made to fight fire, as NATO is specifically made to fight Russia, should they go nuts. There has for Finland and Sweden never been a lower political cost of joining NATO and there has never, at least while NATO existed, been a nuttier Russia.
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May 11, 2022 22:08
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Despera posted:poo poo set the tank to "rinse" All I can picture from this is a tank with its turret sent to spin-cycle. But seriously, is this really a viable way to get electronics?
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May 11, 2022 22:41
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Dirt5o8 posted:RE: Bridging gently caress up
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May 11, 2022 22:53
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Ola posted:During the 60s and 70s, this had a whole different pitch, the US was much less the beacon of freedom that they themselves thought they were, due in no little way by how they conducted themselves abroad. The way Russia is behaving now is directly influenced by American adventurism after all, specifically in order to find credibility. And I'll be sure to add, not because how America behaved in the 60s and 70s, but in the 2000s. Not an invalid point about America but its not like this is anything but a continuation of Imperial and (to a degree) Soviet doctrine about border defense. Every single one of these little border wars was about grabbing and holding strategic entry points to the lowlands. Crushing the inferiors was simply a bonus. Russia did this because it wants to be a big important powerful nation, a great power like the old days. It does not really recognize that the structure of the world has fundamentally changed to put economic power before military power, that military victory is not moral victory, and that much of the world would destroy a bully rather then buy the blood stained ashes. They are fighting an 1800s war in 2022. its simply not the way the world works anymore. I would say it is a permanent statement that they intend to use force to enforce foreign policy objectives forever.
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May 11, 2022 23:00
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And now for something completely different: In what Germans call a "Handlungszwirbler", Russia is going to sanction Gazprom Germania and 30 other German companies. Not much detail available yet, but it's a funny little aside. (Gazprom Germania was nationalised a month or two ago)
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May 11, 2022 23:01
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Dr. Arbitrary posted:All I can picture from this is a tank with its turret sent to spin-cycle. Military grade electronics are a different world from consumer grade, i used to be involved in the manufacture of components (capacitors). We mostly made car components but we did stuff for satellites, some military stuff and my only personal claim to fame was being involved in making components for JPL (could have been for their vending machine for all i know). It's not just the tolerances, it's how the components are treated and packaged. A component that will happily sit in an Idesit washing machine for five years won't handle the heat & pressure inside a missile at all well.
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May 11, 2022 23:03
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Barrel Cactaur posted:I would say it is a permanent statement that they intend to use force to enforce foreign policy objectives forever. And even if they don't have the capability to actually achieve those objectives, they'll do it anyway.
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May 11, 2022 23:09
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Good little article on Russia's failed bridging attempt. https://twitter.com/Forbes/status/1524498608166522880 https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/05/11/the-russians-lost-nearly-an-entire-battalion-trying-to-cross-a-river-in-eastern-ukraine/ quote:It’s unclear how many Russians died or were wounded, but it’s worth noting that no battalion can lose three-quarters of its vehicles and remain capable of operations. In one strike, the Ukrainians removed from the battlefield one of roughly the 99 Russian battalion tactical groups in Ukraine.
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May 11, 2022 23:17
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Sweden joining Nato is wild. Back in January it would have been a bizarre idea. But I gotta wonder how much public support for joining is driven by a genuine fear of a Russian military threat, and how much it is a desire to tell Putin to go eat a bag of dicks?
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May 11, 2022 23:20
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Dr. Arbitrary posted:All I can picture from this is a tank with its turret sent to spin-cycle.  WAR HAS EVOLVED. BRIDGES NO LONGER REQUIRED.
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May 11, 2022 23:25
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Mr. Sunshine posted:Sweden joining Nato is wild. Back in January it would have been a bizarre idea. But I gotta wonder how much public support for joining is driven by a genuine fear of a Russian military threat, and how much it is a desire to tell Putin to go eat a bag of dicks? Think its more a way of supporting finland/being surrounded by nato countries hoping to have a say
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May 11, 2022 23:26
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Barrel Cactaur posted:Not an invalid point about America but its not like this is anything but a continuation of Imperial and (to a degree) Soviet doctrine about border defense. Every single one of these little border wars was about grabbing and holding strategic entry points to the lowlands. Crushing the inferiors was simply a bonus. Russia did this because it wants to be a big important powerful nation, a great power like the old days. It does not really recognize that the structure of the world has fundamentally changed to put economic power before military power, that military victory is not moral victory, and that much of the world would destroy a bully rather then buy the blood stained ashes. They are fighting an 1800s war in 2022. its simply not the way the world works anymore. You are 100% bullseye right, and I think that's why Sweden and Finland were so easily convinced. The stuff we see Russia doing today does indeed belong in the 1800s, at the latest. Sheer land grab, rape and looting, ignorant peasants shoved into the meat grinder to bring wealth to the Czar. My stuff about America was the European leftist's negative view of the 60s and 70s. What Russia is doing today is a worse shame now, or 100, or 200 years ago.
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May 11, 2022 23:28
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The soviet union being a more rational actor is a scary thought. The russian empire was at its largest under a red banner.
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May 11, 2022 23:33
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Mr. Sunshine posted:Sweden joining Nato is wild. Back in January it would have been a bizarre idea. But I gotta wonder how much public support for joining is driven by a genuine fear of a Russian military threat, and how much it is a desire to tell Putin to go eat a bag of dicks? The issue why it’s now or never is that Putin has demonstrated that deterrence that isn’t nuclear has no effect on Kremlin. The Russian invasion was literally a plot-steal from Taistelukenttä 2020, a FDF training and PR video. They have proceeded exactly as FDF has trained to fight against on their overall plan- except shittily. Good news for the FDF? Not really. Because it just shows Putins war plan was not grounded in reality. He was willing to start a war against an opponent and burn Russian Army to the ground. Finland does not prefer to ”win a defensive war” against russia and lose half our GDP and half the population Because Putin hosed up. Finland likes to remain unbombed and un-invaded. Time of non-allied, reasonable deterrence ended feb.24.2022 until the foreseeable future. Putin has shown that Kremlin still sees continuation of politics by burning BTGs as a valid domestic and foreign policy, as long as they can bully others not to intervene by flashing their nuke penis. And everyone is aware that russia lacks manpower to repeat this idiocy fir at least 2-3 years even if they save What they can and withdraw right Now… But Finland remains with Russian land border even after 2024. So the threat of keltainen valtio is subsided, But will re-emerge. And wheb Finland joins Now… Sweden kinda has to, too.
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May 11, 2022 23:34
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:And even if they don't have the capability to actually achieve those objectives, they'll do it anyway. This is the really key point, Finland can no longer say to itself 'invading us would be so disproportionately costly that no sane person would do it' and feel confident that logic will hold.
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May 11, 2022 23:35
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https://twitter.com/jongambrellAP/status/1524360116770082816 So is the Bosporus free transit for pirated materials? I figured this ship would have been stopped somewhere before docking in Syria. Is plausible deniability the only thing letting this happen?
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May 11, 2022 23:45
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