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Sooo apparently one of the Ukrainian Corps of Engineer guys that helped with blowing the bridge is on Twitter and decided to describe how it went down. https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506107615584256?s=20&t=cDq7QMECoGLua6GlV8NZGQ Threadreader bc long: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1524506104192974849.html https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506162728779777?s=20&t=cDq7QMECoGLua6GlV8NZGQ https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506178616766467?s=20&t=cDq7QMECoGLua6GlV8NZGQ He brags on himself a little in the thread but wouldn't you? Obviously unverified, but the guy who he worked with to arrange equipment shipments vouched for him in the comments and on his own page - https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1524510631449223169?s=20&t=cDq7QMECoGLua6GlV8NZGQ This same dude helped supply James Vasquez when he was in Ukraine apparently.
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May 11, 2022 23:52
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Dr. Arbitrary posted:All I can picture from this is a tank with its turret sent to spin-cycle. Seems like a bunch of their tanks got their microchips from those self cleaning ovens.
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May 11, 2022 23:57
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https://twitter.com/zofia_se/status/1524324702977671170 Dunno how much of a chance this has, but it's great to see some real internationalist solidarity.
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May 12, 2022 00:00
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/jongambrellAP/status/1524360116770082816 I don't believe it is Turkey's responsibility to police cargo passing through the straights, though I'm not sure how this sort of thing works. If a ship with stolen goods is in international waters, who has the responsibility/authority to do something about it?
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May 12, 2022 00:08
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Dirt5o8 posted:RE: Bridging gently caress up https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506167090819072 What a story. Thread is a must-read.
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May 12, 2022 00:11
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PerilPastry posted:To what end? They must know such a move would make no difference on the ground and that even their international partners like China would not acknowledge such a land grab as legitimate. This is a few pages back now but Russian MO has been to annex territory and call the frozen conflict a victory for domestic purposes. Meanwhile they genocide and paint the Ukrainian resistance as terrorism and let it go on a few months. Then restart the war as a defence against invasion of Russian territory.
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May 12, 2022 00:14
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clusterfuck posted:This is a few pages back now but Russian MO has been to annex territory and call the frozen conflict a victory for domestic purposes. Meanwhile they genocide and paint the Ukrainian resistance as terrorism and let it go on a few months. Then restart the war as a defence against invasion of Russian territory. But they wouldn't be able to freeze the conflict in this case.
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May 12, 2022 00:18
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lilljonas posted:Yeah Sweden will probably join even if I'm not super happy about it myself. I don't see the need for it, and if there's a need for it, we can wait for the election this year to get a democratic mandate behind it. I mean you have not followed any news the last three months if you somehow believe that Russia would cross the Baltic Sea and successfully invade Stockholm within the next four months. But people are dumb and just today there was a retired major general going on in media about how you should keep supplies stored because you never know when Ivan's going to parachute into your backyard, god dammit. 70% of voters have been scared by... somewhat irrational news reporting about how much a threat Russia still is for Sweden, so every party that wants to do well in this year's elections are going to cheer for Nato membership. Isn't this somewhat short sighted thinking though? I mean yeah, obviously Russia can't invade Sweden right now and if they did they would probably get completely stomped by the Swedish military. But capabilities and intent are two different things and Russia has shown the intent to invade nearby countries a few times already. Whos to say that decades from now Russia won't have the actual capability to mount an invasion of Sweden? It's probably better to already be a NATO member by that point to deter it.
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May 12, 2022 00:21
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Dirt5o8 posted:RE: Bridging gently caress up It got linked earlier but I'd love to hear your thoughts on this guy's thread and perhaps your perspective of what Russia did wrong here? Besides you know. Everything in the war so far. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1524506104192974849.html
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May 12, 2022 00:21
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Count Roland posted:I don't believe it is Turkey's responsibility to police cargo passing through the straights, though I'm not sure how this sort of thing works. Give Ukraine some of those seized ogliarch boats, mount some brimstones and other guns to them and let the -~*New Ukrainian Navy*~- cruise around being pirates for a while?
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May 12, 2022 00:23
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KitConstantine posted:Sooo apparently one of the Ukrainian Corps of Engineer guys that helped with blowing the bridge is on Twitter and decided to describe how it went down. - They had good intelligence from their front. - They had a communications system to relay it. - They had a good commander who wanted a battlefield picture for a possible future engagement. - They had an experienced combat engineer. - They had artillery that was used correctly, and arty guys who knew how to target. - They had air elements with a specific mission. - They had drones for visual and targeting. None of those things is trivial and requires training for all supporting elements as a unit. When this is done, Ukraine is going to be training NATO.
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May 12, 2022 00:31
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Dirt5o8 posted:RE: Bridging gently caress up
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May 12, 2022 00:32
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Pablo Bluth posted:Do tell, which bridging equipment is the best and which isn't? Well, I'd imagine you want the ones that haven't been blown up.
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May 12, 2022 00:47
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Love to see other right wing leaders make revanchist claims about historical territory being 'stolen' https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1524285330488274944?s=20&t=i6tQA8QlmBOIY51yqZsLNA Very cool timing Orban
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May 12, 2022 00:52
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Oh yes Greater Hungary. gently caress yeah dudes let's add a few more great lies to the mix. Roman salutes all around for the rise of Hungary?
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May 12, 2022 00:54
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7c Nickel posted:Well, I'd imagine you want the ones that haven't been blown up. That's not very typical, I'd like to make that point.
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May 12, 2022 00:55
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Nelson Mandingo posted:It got linked earlier but I'd love to hear your thoughts on this guy's thread and perhaps your perspective of what Russia did wrong here? Besides you know. Everything in the war so far. Russia did sorta right lighting poo poo on fire for obscuration. But using artillery is much more reliable and offers targeted smoke exactly where you need it. It sounds like the Russians did not try to feint or trick the Ukrainians regarding where they were crossing. You try to keep the other side guessing as to exactly where you want to cross. This is done by fake smoke missions, boating some dudes across to make a ruckus somewhere else, or limited air assault. Just trying to sow confusion. There was not enough farside security or pushed out recon screening the advance to the crossing site. The Ukrainians seemed like they came and went as they pleased and had artillery spotters close enough to call in accurate fires. It's hard to armchair this without all the info but there didn't seem be nearly enough support for the crossing force. Pablo Bluth posted:Do tell, which bridging equipment is the best and which isn't? IMO, it's better to have an amphibious truck that is also the bridge span than it is to have bridge piece hauled by a truck with a boat hauled by another truck. Just less maintenance and logistics.
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May 12, 2022 00:55
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Despera posted:Theres the 2% GDP defense spending "requirement". Also nobody is invading sweden but with article 5 sweden might be forced into unpopular foreign war Article 5 is defensive only. Any war that impacts a NATO member is going to impact Sweden, whether economically, morally, or existentially.
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May 12, 2022 00:58
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Dirt5o8 posted:IMO, it's better to have an amphibious truck that is also the bridge span than it is to have bridge piece hauled by a truck with a boat hauled by another truck. Just less maintenance and logistics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtsRSXjGwNE&t=30s
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May 12, 2022 01:02
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Maps! https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1524515820189147137?s=20&t=-3gbTgc-dW0p4KZ8z3YSVQ https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11 quote:Russian forces did not make any significant advances anywhere in Ukraine on May 11, and Ukrainian forces took further ground northeast of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City has forced Russian troops onto the defensive and necessitated reinforcement and replenishment efforts intended to prevent further Ukrainian advances towards the Russian border. Russian efforts along the Southern Axis and in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts remain similarly stalled, and Russian forces have not made any significant gains in the face of continued successful Ukrainian defenses.
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May 12, 2022 01:05
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Yep, that's it. YouTube "u.s. MRBC" for a comparison. A lot more steps involved.
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May 12, 2022 01:06
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Atreiden posted:But they wouldn't be able to freeze the conflict in this case. Yes but what they can actually do and how they think they can spin it to their domestics can be two different things. We're talking about a regime that were caught doing the apartment bombings and still spun it into a big lie, that kind of set the tone.
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May 12, 2022 01:11
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Despera posted:Theres the 2% GDP defense spending "requirement". Also nobody is invading sweden but with article 5 sweden might be forced into unpopular foreign war And Sweden just likes to sell guns and materials to both sides when friendly countries get invaded.
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May 12, 2022 01:14
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Dirt5o8 posted:There was not enough farside security or pushed out recon screening the advance to the crossing site. The Ukrainians seemed like they came and went as they pleased and had artillery spotters close enough to call in accurate fires. Out of everything that has happened in Ukraine, the one thing that really stands out to me is how Russia has constantly made blunders because their strategies and tactics seem to completely revolve around the idea they already own the territory. When this war started and Russian helicopters were getting shot out of the sky left and right it was like they were acting like they had air supremacy. They didn't. The 40 mile convoy beyond just the logistical blunders seemed to be predicated on the fact they weren't going to be harassed the entire time. It's just something that I've noticed. And here is another example where they seemed to think the other side of the river was owned, pacified, or less than dangerous territory. Narrator: It was not. Nelson Mandingo fucked around with this message at 01:34 on May 12, 2022 |
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May 12, 2022 01:30
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Despera posted:Theres the 2% GDP defense spending "requirement". Also nobody is invading sweden but with article 5 sweden might be forced into unpopular foreign war The only foreseeable use of Article 5 in the future is Russia trying to attack a NATO member, which I can't imagine would a popular move in the eyes of the Swedish public.
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May 12, 2022 01:34
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Dirt5o8 posted:Russia did sorta right lighting poo poo on fire for obscuration. But using artillery is much more reliable and offers targeted smoke exactly where you need it. Is this a situation where an allegedly elite paratrooper force would have been useful?
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May 12, 2022 01:40
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What does ISW mean when they keep saying RU isn’t making “significant” advances? Like, they are taking ground in the Donbas pretty much every day, they just took Popasna, which is somewhat strategic, right? I guess it feels like they can keep not making “significant” advances but still end up controlling all of Donetsk and Luhansk
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May 12, 2022 01:43
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smug n stuff posted:What does ISW mean when they keep saying RU isn’t making “significant” advances? Like, they are taking ground in the Donbas pretty much every day, they just took Popasna, which is somewhat strategic, right? I guess it feels like they can keep not making “significant” advances but still end up controlling all of Donetsk and Luhansk That's not really how it works. They're wasting men and material every day for not enough gain. Soldiers can't maintain operational effectiveness indefinitely and eventually they'll stop making even those marginal gains. If you recall Russia kept making 'marginal' gains around Kyiv for a while too, until they didn't anymore. Popasna was strategic, now it's a bombed out shell that the Russians have to defend. From what I've seen Russia has also yet to breach any of Ukraine's dug in lines along the front Here's the only gains they made all day. https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1524543939528769538?s=20&t=i26KNUyu6UxZQId9RJp6IQ Here's a snip of the same map section yesterday (took this snip myself thus the quality)  They may have lost up to 1500 men with that failed bridging operation yesterday. Does that gain look worth it to you? Side note: Another scholar has weighed in on the 'is Russia committing genocide?' question - this time Norman Naimark. https://twitter.com/eugene_finkel/status/1524486727020298244?s=20&t=Wt0diteNY4-YkxdWbB1hqA https://www.hoover.org/research/ukraine-and-cloud-genocide He falls on the side of "Yeah, it's almost certainly genocide" Originally his scholarly focus was modern Russian history, but for the last few decades he's been focused on crimes against humanity, particularly genocide. He is in fact the author of the generally positively regarded book Genocide: A World History which is a brief overview of the crime's historical and modern permutations - a review for reference: https://sydneyreviewofbooks.com/review/the-crime-of-crimes-genocide-a-world-history/ He has also authored two books specifically focused on genocide in Europe Fires of Hatred: A History of Ethnic Cleansing in Modern Europe and Stalin’s Genocides.
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May 12, 2022 01:51
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:The only foreseeable use of Article 5 in the future is Russia trying to attack a NATO member, which I can't imagine would a popular move in the eyes of the Swedish public. Well no one saw coming the one use of article 5 and it led to a not so popular war
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May 12, 2022 01:52
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KitConstantine posted:https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1524515820189147137 That camp seems oddly close to what the ISW maps show as the front. If I'm not mistaken, it is right about where the tiny "significant fighting" circle is north of Mariupol & southwest of Donetsk.
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May 12, 2022 01:56
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The X-man cometh posted:Is this a situation where an allegedly elite paratrooper force would have been useful? Any light infantry can do it but airborne and air assault are pretty much tailor-made to that kind of mission. Highly trained, stubborn infantry seizing and holding objectives until heavier forces arrive is the classic mission. The key thing is that heavier forces NEED to arrive. No one wants to go out like the VDV. (I started my army life as a paratrooper ~20 years ago so I might be bias)
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May 12, 2022 01:56
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KitConstantine posted:That's not really how it works. They're wasting men and material every day for not enough gain. Soldiers can't maintain operational effectiveness indefinitely and eventually they'll stop making even those marginal gains. If you recall Russia kept making 'marginal' gains around Kyiv for a while too, until they didn't anymore. Popasna is high ground. I doubt the bombed it enough to change that.
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May 12, 2022 01:58
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Atreiden posted:But they wouldn't be able to freeze the conflict in this case. I'm not sure Russia realizes that. Hell, it wouldn't surprise me if the Ukrainian forces around Kharkov cross the border to get behind other Russian formations. (I don't think they'll do that, but it's in the realm of feasible).
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May 12, 2022 01:59
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Dirt5o8 posted:RE: Bridging gently caress up Do you (or does anyone else) have related reading sources re: combat engineers? Content: Caesar's army in Gaul bridged the Rhine in what was basically a show-off move https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caesar%27s_Rhine_bridges
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May 12, 2022 02:00
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FishBulbia posted:Popasna is high ground. I doubt the bombed it enough to change that. Huh, I guess it's a good thing Ukraine doesn't have any planes or helicopters left or even long distance artillery or that would be impossible to attack! Oh wait
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May 12, 2022 02:02
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Out of everything that has happened in Ukraine, the one thing that really stands out to me is how Russia has constantly made blunders because their strategies and tactics seem to completely revolve around the idea they already own the territory. When this war started and Russian helicopters were getting shot out of the sky left and right it was like they were acting like they had air supremacy. They didn't. The 40 mile convoy beyond just the logistical blunders seemed to be predicated on the fact they weren't going to be harassed the entire time. I was going to make this exact same point, just add to the list paratroopers landing at an airport like they've got armored columns just up the road. They didn't. Dirt5o8 posted:No one wants to go out like the VDV.
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May 12, 2022 02:16
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KitConstantine posted:Huh, I guess it's a good thing Ukraine doesn't have any planes or helicopters left or even long distance artillery or that would be impossible to attack! His stance the entire time has been that Russia will win handidly and is winning. He's never lost that gentlemanly pro Putin fervor that he projects in posts. It's not worth it to engage when no matter what evidence is provided the stance will be the same. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 12, 2022 02:19
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This video is good as hell - BBC reporter embedded with troops chasing the Russians out of Kharkiv https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1524499074145214464?s=20&t=cDq7QMECoGLua6GlV8NZGQ https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-61415677 No gore, but CW for a very sad and wounded grandma which always fucks me up 
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May 12, 2022 02:22
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Count Roland posted:Do you (or does anyone else) have related reading sources re: combat engineers? https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA156949 Here's an 88 page battle analysis of the Moselle River crossing during WW2. Had 2 crossing attempts by U.S. forces that showcase a text book failure and a textbook success. Heads up, the first 44 pages or so is setting the stage of the battle back to the start of the war. Also, U.S. Army doctrine places all the emphasis on maneuver forces. Engineers are always the shaping/supporting effort. So most of the writing is about the infantry and armor when they get to other side.
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May 12, 2022 02:29
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