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Alchenar posted:I feel like this propaganda line that Ukrainian success shows what incredible things Russians could achieve if only they were led by Americans might be risking some unintended consequences This does raise an interesting point
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May 13, 2022 04:27
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KitConstantine posted:We've been debating if it's genocide and Russia just...tweeted it out. Excellent throwback 
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May 13, 2022 04:27
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https://mobile.twitter.com/sea_inside3/status/1524864715234721826 Never interrupt your enemy… https://mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1524813119620624385 https://mobile.twitter.com/sarahrainsford/status/1524758110287679488
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May 13, 2022 05:00
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Putin being sick is obviously speculation entirely without further evidence but I gotta say it would make a lot of the decisions that happened in the past, and that are happening now make a lot more sense. The sense of urgency of the invasion, the "well lets keep going and hope for the best" decision making process, etc. It would make a lot of sense if Putin isn't gonna be here in 5 years and felt like he desperately needed to check one last box off for his legacy. Barack Obama himself speculated something was going on with Putin, because he's never known him to gamble the entire farm recklessly.
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May 13, 2022 05:15
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i watched this footage, pretty hard to stomach. but the whole thing is incredibly casual on the part of the russian soldiers, exactly like villains in an eyeroll worthy hollywood blockbuster. it's unbelievable
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May 13, 2022 05:16
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Putin being sick is obviously speculation entirely without further evidence but I gotta say it would make a lot of the decisions that happened in the past, and that are happening now make a lot more sense. The sense of urgency of the invasion, the "well lets keep going and hope for the best" decision making process, etc. It would make a lot of sense if Putin isn't gonna be here in 5 years and felt like he desperately needed to check one last box off for his legacy. I'll be so mad if there is so much death and destruction due to a despot's steroid-induced psychosis.
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May 13, 2022 05:19
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Risky Bisquick posted:
This is beyond stupid. Like who are they even doing this for? They must know it sure as hell won't change Finland's mind, and if it's for internal propaganda why not just not, then say you did? GhostofJohnMuir posted:i watched this footage, pretty hard to stomach. but the whole thing is incredibly casual on the part of the russian soldiers, exactly like villains in an eyeroll worthy hollywood blockbuster. it's unbelievable Yeah. Seems to be a mix of no sleep, lots of booze, and lots of Russian propaganda about Ukrainians not being "people" and all the other people around you in your army constantly getting killed. But sill that's just some unbelievably horrible cruelty there.
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May 13, 2022 05:44
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dr_rat posted:This is beyond stupid. Like who are they even doing this for? They must know it sure as hell won't change Finland's mind, and if it's for internal propaganda why not just not, then say you did? I'd say it's more defensive posturing than anything else. Finland joining NATO is something Putin has railed against for years. At the same time, it doesn't take much to recognize that Russia's invasion of Ukraine began with a troop buildup, maybe it's preemptive before Finish takes a more aggressive stance?
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May 13, 2022 05:59
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Russia has been against Finland joining Nato since it's inception. So much that Nato probably didn't even want to risk having Finland in it when USSR existed.
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May 13, 2022 06:05
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Doesn't positioning troops on their border push Finland towards joining Nato ASAP holy poo poo guys I don't care what they ask for we gotta get this signed right now?
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May 13, 2022 06:05
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Looking forward to Chechnya's and Karelia's admissions to NATO in 2032
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May 13, 2022 06:11
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The Lone Badger posted:Doesn't positioning troops on their border push Finland towards joining Nato ASAP holy poo poo guys I don't care what they ask for we gotta get this signed right now? Yeah, any rational government would see that, but rational government has not been happening for some time in Russia.
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May 13, 2022 06:13
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The Lone Badger posted:Doesn't positioning troops on their border push Finland towards joining Nato ASAP holy poo poo guys I don't care what they ask for we gotta get this signed right now? There's always been troops there and Finnish NATO membership is a done deal, this is just posturing and honestly would be kinda weird if they didn't respond in that way.
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May 13, 2022 06:31
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slowdave posted:There's always been troops there and Finnish NATO membership is a done deal, this is just posturing and honestly would be kinda weird if they didn't respond in that way. Well, Finland applying might be a done deal, but doesn't joining require the unanimous ascent of every existing member?
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May 13, 2022 07:07
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What exactly is this? It is a picture of a van? Russia has military bases next to Finnish borders anyway, why would they need to shuffle stuff all the way from Ukraine? Edit: Oh yeah, there's more stuff behind the van. Still... Context: Am Finnish, will head for a northern land border if need be.
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May 13, 2022 07:14
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Skippy McPants posted:Well, Finland applying might be a done deal, but doesn't joining require the unanimous ascent of every existing member? It's Finland, any current NATO member state trying to block their entry would be committing political suicide by trying to stop them from joining.
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May 13, 2022 07:19
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u mad bro? https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1524871034104647681
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May 13, 2022 07:27
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Medvedev has been so obviously drunkposting since the beginning of the war its adorable how clunky he is at playing the hawk.
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May 13, 2022 07:45
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The Lone Badger posted:Doesn't positioning troops on their border push Finland towards joining Nato ASAP holy poo poo guys I don't care what they ask for we gotta get this signed right now?
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May 13, 2022 07:55
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How dare you russophobically imply the possibility of a nuclear war! Anyway if you don't stop this we'll nuke u.
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May 13, 2022 08:00
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A Chinese publication: "NATO’s northward expansion risks turning Europe into a new powder keg" https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202205/1265536.shtml It sounds nutty but hey, maybe they actually have a more sober picture of what's the likely outcome of all this. More seriously, it's telling that the piece does not even mention the war - but it does get one thing right. Whoever or whatever caused it, Finland is a big loser in this situation of worsening relations. Finland's economy is far more interlinked with Russia's than any Western European nation's is. Regarding talk of Putin being very sick and possibly getting replaced soon, it seems very possible that with the way the ruling clique is set up, whoever replaces him will be even more hawkish and less inclined to democratic leadership. At least seems very much not a given it'd be the opposite. If those sickness rumors are true, there is probably an intense 24/7 game going on with people close to him jockeying for position to inherit or usurp power. See Stalin's last years.
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May 13, 2022 08:24
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It’s amazing that Russia lacks so much introspection that they can’t see why their yelling about nuclear weapons is falling on deaf ears. It seems like the entire country has given themselves brain damage from all the gas Europe no longer wants.
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May 13, 2022 08:26
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d64 posted:A Chinese publication: "NATO’s northward expansion risks turning Europe into a new powder keg" Good old china, NATO bad; also lets make our own Also no they have no idea like the rest of this what the outcome of this will be. They do have a remarkably ignorant idea of european history, especially the recent part. Despera fucked around with this message at 08:44 on May 13, 2022 |
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May 13, 2022 08:32
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d64 posted:If those sickness rumors are true, there is probably an intense 24/7 game going on with people close to him jockeying for position to inherit or usurp power. See Stalin's last years. He's also offed all the smart people around him, right? (...Maybe we'll get a good sequel to "Death of Stalin" in a few decades?)
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May 13, 2022 08:33
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I get that Finland is a victim of geography but I still find it hard to feel too sorry for any country whose economic stability (or, more likely, morally questionable profit) is contingent upon a sociopathic tyrant keeping their crimes just decorous enough to avoid ruinous backlash - see also Germany Re: succession chat, the first and primary necessity for any despot is to ensure the nullification of any potential rivals. Putin has achieved this and continues to maintain this, so if/when he goes, he will be replaced by someone who is very likely to be in a much weaker position (in terms of talent, resources, and alliances) and who will inherit the same tyrant's dilemma. A losing foreign war on your border and a hardening coalition of neighbouring hostile nations is not something any ruler usually wants to juggle at the same time as shoring up their tenuous claim to newly acquired power - inherited military adventurism is generally a bad idea for a brand new ruler unless they have a disproportionately powerful regional military and can achieve quick success to legitimise their rule
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May 13, 2022 08:36
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d64 posted:A Chinese publication: "NATO’s northward expansion risks turning Europe into a new powder keg" If the cartoon didn't give it away, it's content-less propaganda from people checking boxes. quote:Finland and Sweden may now think that after joining NATO, they could receive protection from others. But be careful: Finland will be right at the forefront in the anti-Russia campaign. If anything goes wrong on the front line, Finland will be the first to face the consequences, Sun noted.  Finland was already at the forefront, that's literally why they're joining NATO.quote:The fatal imbalance in the European security architecture has brought the continent to great disruption and catastrophe. This should offer a lesson to the Asia-Pacific. You will be shocked to learn that it does not.
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May 13, 2022 08:39
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Finland is also a big loser if Russia decides Finland should be Russia
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May 13, 2022 08:42
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Yeah, I can’t imagine what happens to Russia after Putin dies. He is clearly not thinking about his successor and appears to have purged all competent administrators for corrupt and/or inept booklickers (see Shoigu). With a completely disastrous foreign war, hostile foreign relations with literally the entire world, and a weak central government, I can’t see how Russia doesn’t have years of Dark Ages level of unrest.
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May 13, 2022 08:45
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Father Christmas very upset about people lying about gift wishlists https://twitter.com/Falcon_Malteser/status/1524790757864968199?t=qAeMn3jDZwAxJEY3Yf6_eQ&s=19
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May 13, 2022 08:51
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Putin being sick is obviously speculation entirely without further evidence but I gotta say it would make a lot of the decisions that happened in the past, and that are happening now make a lot more sense. The sense of urgency of the invasion, the "well lets keep going and hope for the best" decision making process, etc. It would make a lot of sense if Putin isn't gonna be here in 5 years and felt like he desperately needed to check one last box off for his legacy. The sense of urgency could be from the demographic crisis Russia is facing. Even Putin had another 20 good years in him, the population contraction means that there won't be a better time than now to try this. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/03/russia-demography-birthrate-decline-ukraine/ "A brief glance at Russia’s population pyramid illustrates this knock-on effect. There are around 12.5 million Russians between the ages of 30 and 34 who were born around or just before the collapse of the Soviet Union. But there are around 6.5 million people between the ages of 20 and 24 who were born during the chaos of the late 1990s. This smaller base of people able to bear children means the birthrate is almost destined to decline. And that is exactly what has happened; after a brief period of natural population growth in the mid-2010s, Russia’s population once again began to contract in 2019. It will continue to do so well into the foreseeable future." In addition to that, a more free, more prosperous Ukraine next door would lead to a brain drain as Russia's skilled workers emigrate somewhere better. "Do nothing" would lead to bad results for Putin and "Reform a corrupt system" was clearly not on the table, so he tried for war again.
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May 13, 2022 08:54
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jeffreyw posted:Yeah, I can’t imagine what happens to Russia after Putin dies. He is clearly not thinking about his successor and appears to have purged all competent administrators for corrupt and/or inept booklickers (see Shoigu). I think it's way too early to be talking seriously about what happens after Putin goes, that's something that could drag on for a long time and in the context of Ukraine's immediate future is largely irrelevant except as some daydream miracle BUT I don't think a North Korea style result is likely for Russia in that case, even if the new power is a literal clone of Putin you still have the early days of being an unknown quantity where you can pretend to be a lot more amenable to constructive/repaired relationships, and the West is broadly disinterested in punitive or costly containment strategies - I reckon they'd jump at the opportunity to drop sanctions, reinstate trade, and just cry "but how could we have known??" once it goes to poo poo again. Post-Putin Russia could very well exploit this susceptibility to bad faith appeals to deescalation, giving minimal concessions until they feel ready to resume doing whatever lovely crimes they hold closest to their heart
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May 13, 2022 08:54
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Alchenar posted:Father Christmas very upset about people lying about gift wishlists There's a lot of garbage in everything Chomsky says there. Like claiming that Ukraine hasn't tried to negotiate, even though they have, and it was Russia who indicated that until Putin wants to, there's no point in it. This is even further than his previous nonsense where he was talking about how Ukraine's 'preconditions' was what was spoiling the negotiations.
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May 13, 2022 09:02
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Alchenar posted:Father Christmas very upset about people lying about gift wishlists Stop elder abuse and let grandpa drink his herbal tea in peace without giving rambling useless interviews every week, he needs strength to outlive Kissinger yet
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May 13, 2022 09:09
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slowdave posted:There's always been troops there and Finnish NATO membership is a done deal, this is just posturing and honestly would be kinda weird if they didn't respond in that way. And in fact there are less troops near the border than ever because in most garrisons two thirds of battalions have been sent to Ukraine and they have also taken casualties there. There's nothing to worry, Finland is more than capable of protecting itself.
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May 13, 2022 09:09
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Noam looking rough these days.
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May 13, 2022 09:18
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Nenonen posted:And in fact there are less troops near the border than ever because in most garrisons two thirds of battalions have been sent to Ukraine and they have also taken casualties there. There's nothing to worry, Finland is more than capable of protecting itself. I mean, the fear with NATO Russia war was never really the ground forces. https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1524870096858009600
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May 13, 2022 09:18
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Continuing on Fin/Swe NATO membership, now that the process is almost started officially, probably going to be more objections to it https://twitter.com/WillRuger/status/1524723150327529474 Again, would suck if this take turned out correct!
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May 13, 2022 09:30
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d64 posted:Continuing on Fin/Swe NATO membership, now that the process is almost started officially, probably going to be more objections to it https://twitter.com/GarrisonMoratto/status/1524750817709895682 These people miss the point big time. Finland's military doesn't matter. All that stuff will be taken out pretty quick in the event of war when Russia escalates to deescalate. The point is that it moves the nuclear trip wire further to protect another country. If a conflict actually happened of course it would be entirely destroyed as an entity, the point is preventing that in the first place.
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May 13, 2022 09:35
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d64 posted:Continuing on Fin/Swe NATO membership, now that the process is almost started officially, probably going to be more objections to it That dude has literally zero power or influence or ability to object.
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May 13, 2022 09:37
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DandyLion posted:It won't matter, at the time they are expelled russia will be 50+ miles away at least (and with no more warfighting capability to do anything about it). Take them into custody and use them as bargaining chips to negotiate an exchange for qll the Ukrainians kidnapped and eent to Siberia.
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May 13, 2022 09:44
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