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Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

CommieGIR posted:

Eh, it was a bunch of retreating, defeated military people. It was a pretty disturbing attack. Its one thing to destroy a column advancing on you, its another to basically kettle and slaughter retreating and non-combative military members.

I disagree, as we’ve seen with Russia, you can just replace experienced troops or vehicles. Also it reduces their external threat in the near future and can collapse the regimes ability to internally defend itself (sadly the latter never happened).

Also nothing stops those troops from being re-employed. They were not surrendering and were carrying their war crime loot.

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lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Carteret posted:

I bet it would loving blow Russia's mind to learn how functional and efficient our APO/AFO system works. For people never in, you can mail a flat rate USPS box to South Korea for domestic prices, and reasonable shipment times.

Now, if we've figured out how to ship baked goods/tobacco/porn from home that efficiently, how difficult of a time do you think we have shipping beans and bullets through our "normal" logistics network?

Depends on cargo volume and type, and what ports. There is a serious overestimation of the US logistics capability. GW1 would be next to impossible now as we don't have the ships or personel.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
with dejoy in charge your fruitcake will probably wind up in the marianas trench

Carth Dookie
Jan 28, 2013

Carteret posted:

I bet it would loving blow Russia's mind to learn how functional and efficient our APO/AFO system works. For people never in, you can mail a flat rate USPS box to South Korea for domestic prices, and reasonable shipment times.

Now, if we've figured out how to ship baked goods/tobacco/porn from home that efficiently, how difficult of a time do you think we have shipping beans and bullets through our "normal" logistics network?

And yet trying to get anything delivered to me from the US is routinely, simultaneously the slowest and most expensive of anywhere in the world. It's maddening.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Not the one needs a reminder but Rand Paul‘s neighbor was right.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/12/world/europe/rand-paul-ukraine-aid.html

God I can’t believe I gave him $20 once…in my defense it was in my 20s during a libertarian phase…but yeah still dumb as poo poo.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

Voyager I posted:

On a different note: what does the prognosis look like for repair and recovery on disabled tanks? To my completely uninformed civilian eye I'd surmise that something like a popped turret represents catastrophic internal damage from the ammunition going off and the chassis is basically a husk that you might be able to strip some external parts off (RIP crew), but what about the varying degrees of damage in between? What other kinds of hits will normally render a tank in need of recovery? How resilient are the internal components, and how easy is it to replace them if they do get damaged? If we're looking at something like that BTG that got wiped on the river crossing, how can you tell between tanks that are straight dead, simple repair jobs, or factory refurbishments / could be repaired but maybe not worth sending a recovery vehicle into unsecured terrain?

I'm starting from no knowledge whatsoever, so even the most basic explanations will be helpful.

Short of a tank obviously burnt out or with a popped turret, you'd have to do a close up inspection. Even tanks with no obvious external damage but a single hole could be a total write off depending on what you find inside.

Marshal Prolapse posted:

Not the one needs a reminder but Rand Paul‘s neighbor was right.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/12/world/europe/rand-paul-ukraine-aid.html

God I can’t believe I gave him $20 once…in my defense it was in my 20s during a libertarian phase…but yeah still dumb as poo poo.

At one point the Libertarian party was something else. I visited the DC headquarters back in '04 and their unofficial motto was "destroying the republican party one day at a time". The tea party movement destroyed the libertarian party. Before it might have stood for actual limited government and real personal liberty, but now the only freedom they're interested in is the freedom to steal and be their worst selves without repercussion, and everyone else can just get hosed. Libertarianism is a meaningless term these days, as it's been coopted by fascists, shitheads, and grifters, just like so many other things. The only freedom they're interested in now is the freedom to gently caress over everyone around them. These days the closest banner to what I believe in is a solid black flag, and even that isn't particularly close.

A.o.D. fucked around with this message at 03:51 on May 13, 2022

Farking Bastage
Sep 22, 2007

Who dey think gonna beat dem Bengos!

A.o.D. posted:


The tea party movement destroyed the libertarian party. Before it might have stood for actual limited government and real personal liberty, but now the only freedom they're interested in is the freedom to steal and be their worst selves without repercussion, and everyone else can just get hosed. Libertarianism is a meaningless term these days, as it's been coopted by fascists, shitheads, and grifters, just like so many other things. The only freedom they're interested in now is the freedom to gently caress over everyone around them.

Dude.... I've been trying to put this into words for 20 years. Thank you.

Farking Bastage fucked around with this message at 04:15 on May 13, 2022

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Mustang posted:

I don't know if the US Army still has engineer recon units but they're mentioned in my reconnaissance manuals. Cav squadrons can and do do route reconnaissance but ideally you'd have actual engineers doing it.

It's a core MET of any combat engineer unit.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
The Libertarian Party has been Alt-Right Wing and basically a GOP party since like 2005-2006. It was nearly always GOP lite.

Joke Miriam
Nov 17, 2019



Libertarians are just republicans who smoke weed and admit to watching porn.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

MonkeyLibFront posted:

I'm guessing engineer recce isn't a thing :downs:

Little ACW factoid; Lee and McClellan were engineers with the US army invading Mexico during the Mexican-American War and worked together extensively surveying and preparing routes for assaults and movements.

in a well actually
Jan 26, 2011

dude, you gotta end it on the rhyme

Joke Miriam posted:

Libertarians are just republicans who smoke weed and admit to watching porn.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wyatt_privilege/status/894560535928344577?lang=en

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Joke Miriam posted:

Libertarians are just republicans who smoke weed and admit to watching porn.

Yeah all my self-identifying libertarian friends are like this. This just means they’re good with 99% and not 100% of what they see during their Fox News binge.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Tiny Timbs posted:

Yeah all my self-identifying libertarian friends are like this. This just means they’re good with 99% and not 100% of what they see during their Fox News binge.

Always worth remembering this secessionist slaver moron is their hero

Bell_
Sep 3, 2006

Tiny Baltimore
A billion light years away
A goon's posting the same thing
But he's already turned to dust
And the shitpost we read
Is a billion light-years old
A ghost just like the rest of us

A.o.D. posted:

Retreating. Armies. Are. Legitimate. Targets.
Besides,

"It's not retreat! It's retrograde."

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
Gee, I wonder why Russia is struggling to shoot down inbound aircraft and missiles

https://twitter.com/kemal_115/status/1525064102145572865?s=20&t=ZSf-QURpnWn9jdgFPm9frw

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Really a coin toss as to whether it's incompetence or :nsa: at this point.

Eason the Fifth
Apr 9, 2020
Not to wade into grover-post territory, but how do you guys see this playing out? At a glance, it seems like we're moving to a grinding attrition that Putin doesn't mind throwing bodies at, because all he has to do is wait until inflation/oil prices cause incumbents to lose in elections that bring russia-friendly politicians (back) into office. I don't see American political support for Ukraine extending past the Biden presidency, and probably not even that long.

I'm sure that's oversimplified to the point of being wrong, though. Happy to hear better takes.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

Gee, I wonder why Russia is struggling to shoot down inbound aircraft and missiles

https://twitter.com/kemal_115/status/1525064102145572865?s=20&t=ZSf-QURpnWn9jdgFPm9frw

There's not a lot of insight to be gained from an isolated engagement failure without better forensics on what happened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YS4i2InVB-Y

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

jfc

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
Yeah, that sure looks like a significant portion of 1 BTG.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

mlmp08 posted:

Yeah, that sure looks like a significant portion of 1 BTG.

There's more a couple meters from it, the estimates are now that at least 2 if not 3 were involved and destroyed either at the crossing or near it.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

the estimates are now that at least 2 if not 3 were involved and destroyed

From who?

The photos show the majority of 1x BTG equivalent. BTGs aren't all created equal, so for that to show 2-3 BTGs destroyed, it would be the from smaller BTGs out there unless the rest of the destroyed BTGs are just out of frame.

And while there have been a lot of departures from good tactics and doctrine across this whole conflict, it would be an extra level of difficulty to bother to mix two different units complettley together to start crossing in mixed columns rather than BTG 1 crosses, then BTG crosses. The UK is usually a bit more bombastic in their assessments than the US, and they peg the estimated loss at "at least 1 BTG." rather than specifying 2+

Defenestrategy
Oct 24, 2010

Eason the Fifth posted:

Not to wade into grover-post territory, but how do you guys see this playing out? At a glance, it seems like we're moving to a grinding attrition that Putin doesn't mind throwing bodies at, because all he has to do is wait until inflation/oil prices cause incumbents to lose in elections that bring russia-friendly politicians (back) into office. I don't see American political support for Ukraine extending past the Biden presidency, and probably not even that long.

I'm sure that's oversimplified to the point of being wrong, though. Happy to hear better takes.



Currently in Western Ukraine and Poland there's a rumored not insubstantial amount of pissed off Ukrainians learning how to soldier and to use weapons produced by the worlds largest military industrial complex and is currently being meaningfully supplied by basically the rest of the world. Russia has yet to call a general mobilization, has apparent issues supplying their forces with basic materials and training, and sanctions are probably messing with their ability to repair or replace equipment that is being lost to attrition.

At this point even if the GOP flip congress in midterms, impeach Biden, Harris, and the rest of the line of succession til we get President Mitch I can't imagine anything they could do at this point would flip the war in Russias favor short of actively declaring war against ukraine or embargoing them.

Casimir Radon
Aug 2, 2008


CommieGIR posted:

Always worth remembering this secessionist slaver moron is their hero


There was an attempt in 1981 by a bunch of American and Canadian white supremacists to overthrow the government of Dominica. The charter captain they hired got suspicious and called the ATF. They all went to prison. One of them was Don Black who learned about computers in prison and founded Stormfront when he got out. Anyway Ron Paul is alleged to have known about the whole thing and didn’t say anything.

I identified as a libertarian from my late teens into my very early 20s. But contact with the real world undid that pretty quickly. It’s a political philosophy that appeals to dumb self-centered teenagers and you either manage to grow out of that or you don’t.

Hyrax Attack!
Jan 13, 2009

We demand to be taken seriously

CommieGIR posted:

Always worth remembering this secessionist slaver moron is their hero



I had a housemate who was a Ron Paul delegate in 2012. Not a bad guy but he had zero discernment when reading stuff online. Shrugged when he was excited to learn orange juice cures cancer but I needed to calm him down and recommend against his plan to immediately test out how if a cop pulls you over it's fine as they can't detain travelers on the road.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!
Libertarianism in a sentence:

“What do you mean I can’t smoke weed on this playground while I wait for my girlfriend?”

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

A.o.D. posted:

Short of a tank obviously burnt out or with a popped turret, you'd have to do a close up inspection. Even tanks with no obvious external damage but a single hole could be a total write off depending on what you find inside.

At one point the Libertarian party was something else. I visited the DC headquarters back in '04 and their unofficial motto was "destroying the republican party one day at a time". The tea party movement destroyed the libertarian party. Before it might have stood for actual limited government and real personal liberty, but now the only freedom they're interested in is the freedom to steal and be their worst selves without repercussion, and everyone else can just get hosed. Libertarianism is a meaningless term these days, as it's been coopted by fascists, shitheads, and grifters, just like so many other things. The only freedom they're interested in now is the freedom to gently caress over everyone around them. These days the closest banner to what I believe in is a solid black flag, and even that isn't particularly close.

You put it into words better then I ever could.

Also when it became obvious that a lot of the whack jobs who would prefer to the national parks as an infringement on liberty and theft,and all the creepy creepy others. I started thinking…umm I’m going to do something else…and these people are all nuts.

Madurai
Jun 26, 2012

mlmp08 posted:

There's not a lot of insight to be gained from an isolated engagement failure without better forensics on what happened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YS4i2InVB-Y

Pretty much this. I watched a Tomahawk go into the Red Sea in our wake. I'm pretty sure that one failure out of my sample size of five doesn't mean they have a 20% failure rate overall.

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

GD_American posted:

Libertarianism in a sentence:

“What do you mean I can’t smoke weed on this playground while I wait for my girlfriend?”

"Gubbment ain't gonna tell my wife she has to ride in a booster seat"

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

The average accepted failure rate for munitions like missiles in the US is like 30%, IIRC.

It's different for different ord, but it's something ridiculous like that.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

shame on an IGA posted:

"Gubbment ain't gonna tell my wife she has to ride in a booster seat"

Nah, way too many states have child-bride exemptions, Libertarians are the Republicans who don't want having to marry them first.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Madurai posted:

Pretty much this. I watched a Tomahawk go into the Red Sea in our wake. I'm pretty sure that one failure out of my sample size of five doesn't mean they have a 20% failure rate overall.

How about two in a row though?

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

How about two in a row though?

If two bullets in a row fire crooked, that might signify one gun being broken more than it signifies “guns don’t work I guess”

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

mlmp08 posted:

If two bullets in a row fire crooked, that might signify one gun being broken more than it signifies “guns don’t work I guess”

Yeah but its not a gun, its guided rockets, where the failure is more likely caused by the rockets itself.

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

CommieGIR posted:

How about two in a row though?

Something could have a 0.001% chance of failure and you could get two failures in a row

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

Yeah but its not a gun, its guided rockets, where the failure is more likely caused by the rockets itself.

SA-8s are command guided, man… And the ordnance are missiles. It is impossible to Know what caused the engagement to occur that way, but I would bet on the single guidance unit failing before I’d bet on both missiles independently failing.

And there are plenty of videos of both Ukrainian and Russian SA-8s shooting stuff down. You are making bad logical leaps.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

OctaMurk posted:

Something could have a 0.001% chance of failure and you could get two failures in a row

Yeah you are giving the Russian maintenance system way more credit than its earned given they are issuing vehicles to the front lines with tires that were made in the USSR.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
CommieGIR, if missiles just don’t work, Ukraine’s behavior makes no loving sense. Ukrainian helicopter pilots are also doing the “lob rockets wildly from friendly lines” tactic and the Ukrainian air force flies rather little and when it does, flies while nearly scraping bird nests from treetops.

This is dumb. It’s a video of one single, legacy system performing a failed engagement.

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CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

mlmp08 posted:

CommieGIR, if missiles just don’t work, Ukraine’s behavior makes no loving sense. Ukrainian helicopter pilots are also doing the “lob rockets wildly from friendly lines” tactic and the Ukrainian air force flies rather little and when it does, flies while nearly scraping bird nests from treetops.

This is dumb. It’s a video of one single, legacy system performing a failed engagement.

What are you talking about? What 'Lob rockets wildly from friendly lines'? Are you talking about the unguided MLRS systems?

The Ukrainian Air Force is avoiding longer range mid to high altitude SAMs last I understood which is why they fly at low level. Russia has very deep coverage with their S-300 and S-400 systems. Most of Russia's SAM shootdowns have been from S-400 systems.

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