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Who will win the federal Election This poll is closed. |
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| Labor Majority |
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48 | 42.48% |
| Labor Minority |
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29 | 25.66% |
| Liberal Majority |
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3 | 2.65% |
| Liberal Minority |
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12 | 10.62% |
| UAP Majoirty |
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21 | 18.58% |
| Total: | 113 votes | ||
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BOAT SHOWBOAT posted:The whole point is they're not a political party on the basis of the ALP being better than LNP on climate, which they aren't. why, if your objective is to get action on climate change, would you encourage people to vote for a party that wants to subsidize and expand coal and gas extraction?
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May 13, 2022 13:21
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| # ? Jun 10, 2024 17:58 |
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https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1525092117512499201 The punters absolutely made up their minds more than a year ago
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May 13, 2022 13:35
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thatbastardken posted:on the basis of the ALP being better than LNP on climate, which they aren't. why, if your objective is to get action on climate change, would you encourage people to vote for a party that wants to subsidize and expand coal and gas extraction? Labor policy on renewables and fixed targets is better than the liberals and these are liberal seats. The tweet is so loving dumb I couldn't tell if you were joking posting it tbh. If people want to hand out greens flyers and campaign for the greens they can do that too. E: sorry if I just called you dumb, Mark. JBP fucked around with this message at 13:52 on May 13, 2022 |
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May 13, 2022 13:42
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https://twitter.com/barriecassidy/status/1524919349370245120?s=21&t=oZ0eUHsMCZsjNIdMBXEpFg
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May 13, 2022 13:43
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freebooter posted:https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1525092117512499201 https://twitter.com/GrogsGamut/status/1525079447912689664
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May 13, 2022 13:46
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Bill Posters posted:A major police operation will be conducted in Ballarat today, which will see a heavy presence in the Ballarat CBD. The "You have no rights - as long as we say you have no rights 24 hours before taking those rights away from you" Act. I've seen it used in Melbourne and heard about it in Sydney, Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Never heard it being invoked in a small town before. Certainly not for no apparent reason. Are there any big concerts or raves going on there this weekend? Or is this just what it takes to get Sergeant Gerard Collihole's dick hard now? But yeah, it's absolutely loving bullshit that the cops can just whisk away all out rights and protections with a little blurb in the newspaper beforehand. EDIT: Google tells me it has a population 101,000 now. Okay, that's a lot bigger than it was the time I went there as a kid to see Sovereign Hill. Megillah Gorilla fucked around with this message at 14:10 on May 13, 2022 |
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May 13, 2022 14:06
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When they've declared Footscray a weapon search zone I have never been stopped by the police I must just be lucky 
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May 13, 2022 14:25
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I remember the last election though. 
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May 13, 2022 15:01
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polls are not wrong for the same reason they were last time at least (they aren't herded like last time) and even if a polling error of the same magnitude happened that would just get us into hung parliament territory
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May 13, 2022 15:03
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JBP posted:When they've declared Footscray a weapon search zone I have never been stopped by the police I must just be lucky Were they holding up paper bags as you walked past and waved you on?
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May 13, 2022 17:08
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Synthbuttrange posted:I remember the last election though. Don't make me post the polling graphs again
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May 13, 2022 21:01
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Last election was 51-49 on polls
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May 13, 2022 22:50
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Organised a 'welcome to the neighbourhood' for a new neighbour, few of us getting together on election night for some beers. Don't make me doubt the polls this time goons.
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May 13, 2022 23:16
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Anidav posted:Last election was 51-49 on polls Yeah fingers crossed it doesn't narrow in the final week and plenty of people early vote before being influenced by more final week Murdoch crud Though as you say Labor is polling ahead on 2PP of 2019 so, reasons for optimism
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May 13, 2022 23:24
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Albomentum cannot be stopped
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May 13, 2022 23:43
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Megillah Gorilla posted:Were they holding up paper bags as you walked past and waved you on? lol
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May 13, 2022 23:51
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BOAT SHOWBOAT posted:Yeah fingers crossed it doesn't narrow in the final week and plenty of people early vote before being influenced by more final week Murdoch crud Either the polls that have been since adjusted are more wrong than before, noting that they correctly guessed the SA and WA elections or Labor is heading towards 90 seats.
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May 14, 2022 00:08
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Get someone to apply 2019 herding to 2022 polling data I wanna see what that looks like
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May 14, 2022 00:46
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I've seen 80 based on the 5.3% swing, although some twitter nerds seem to think that due to a natural gerrymander, labor need effectively 52% for a 1 seat majority, and other commentators have noted that uniform swings aren't always uniform. I did pop on pollbludger last night and looked at the state-based swings though and it's a fairly good picture, it seems very unlikely that we'll have situation where the swing is swallowed up by safe labor seats while the marginals stay blue etc.
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May 14, 2022 00:50
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quote:I’ll empathise a lot more if elected, PM vows
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May 14, 2022 01:13
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Laserface posted:Get someone to apply 2019 herding to 2022 polling data I wanna see what that looks like I would actually be super interested in this. Like the going understanding is that the 2019 poll was weighted too heavily Labor. Would be interested to see what the old modelling would say current poll results mean. Like presumably Labor would be even more ahead on the old modelling?
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May 14, 2022 01:25
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If not elected I'll empathise even less, threatens PM.
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May 14, 2022 01:45
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we don't know what the weighting issues were at the last election exactly, but the general suspicion from experts is that the polls were not successfully reaching low-engagement voters, probably due to not weighting for education as at least one factor. some of the polls, most notably newspoll, have made significant changes to address weighting issues but others have made no claims to. this is a separate problem to herding. last election, all the polls were extremely close - all between 51-52 for the entire election campaign. this is unnaturally low variance, so it appeared that the polls were all adjusting their weightings to achieve the result they expected to avoid looking wrong. this meant that even if one of the polls had gotten samples that could have indicated things were much worse for labor, they dismissed it as an outlier and assumed it was their weightings that were the issue & because everyone was doing this, it reinforced the idea. the polls were also herded toward the end of the 2016 election campaign, but they got lucky and didn't herd towards someone's bad assumptions then. they are not being herded this time. you can't just adjust the current polls so that they're wrong for the same methodological reasons as last time, we don't have access to any of the methodology anywhere near enough to do that. the best that can be done there is just adjust them by the same amount they were skewed last time - about 3% to labor on TPP. assuming that same error in the current polls gives us 51% as the labor TPP which would be a labor minority or very small majority. https://www.smh.com.au/national/biden-demanded-bipartisan-support-before-signing-aukus-labor-was-not-told-for-months-20220513-p5al9d.html lmao, us government demanded bipartisan support for the aukus deal to ensure ongoing support even if the government was changed but morrison didn't brief labor & get their support until the day before it was announced. lih fucked around with this message at 02:21 on May 14, 2022 |
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May 14, 2022 01:50
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JBP posted:
mark doesn't post in the thread or on sa as far as I know, you're in the clear. calling me dumb is fine, generous even.
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May 14, 2022 02:37
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I will say that Get Up opting to use the same colour as One Nation is not a great decision.
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May 14, 2022 03:01
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May 14, 2022 03:10
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I really doubt anyone is getting them confused
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May 14, 2022 03:11
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I'll bite: what's their fuckwit reasoning? Something about him being to the left of Marx?
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May 14, 2022 03:13
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post the gif
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May 14, 2022 03:18
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Hahah, they removed their paywall on this crap
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May 14, 2022 03:27
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Breetai posted:I'll bite: what's their fuckwit reasoning? Something about him being to the left of Marx? He doesn't understand preferences and he thinks ousting the lib "moderates" is bad. He is Joe Hildebrand.
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May 14, 2022 03:29
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thatbastardken posted:on the basis of the ALP being better than LNP on climate, which they aren't. why, if your objective is to get action on climate change, would you encourage people to vote for a party that wants to subsidize and expand coal and gas extraction? https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...511-p5akf8.html posted:Labor’s climate policies are significantly superior to those offered by the Coalition, say a group of leading scientists […] Parkinson’s view was broadly shared by 10 leading Australian scientists approached by the Herald and The Age, all of whom agreed Australia had been failed on climate policy since the Coalition took office in 2013. Labor could be a lot better on climate but it’s wrong to say they’re the same as the coalition. Their 2030 emissions target is nearly twice as ambitious and they propose policies that should lower emissions. The coalition’s target is essentially business as usual and they have pretty much no policies to reduce emissions, and accordingly our emissions aren’t falling in any sector other than energy, where the falls are mostly not because of government policy.
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May 14, 2022 03:29
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The Labor voters need to vote for the Liberal Party because it'd be a hilarious prank they'll never see coming.
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May 14, 2022 03:29
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Breetai posted:I'll bite: what's their fuckwit reasoning? Something about him being to the left of Marx? if frydenberg & other moderates lose their seats then dutton will be leader and the liberals will go hard right which will be an enormous electoral success because the republicans are very successful in the usa and they won't lose votes to one nation and uap anymore does not exactly hold up, of course
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May 14, 2022 03:46
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JBP posted:He doesn't understand preferences and he thinks ousting the lib "moderates" is bad. He is Joe Hildebrand. It's a misleading headline because he's actually arguing they need to preference (not vote for) Frydenberg over the teal independent so that he remains in the party and becomes leader over Dutton. The dumb part is the fact that he's assuming that the remaining Liberal MPs - who will predominantly be right wingers in safe seats - will install as leader somebody from the same faction as Morrison, who will have just led them to their biggest wipeout defeat since Rudd.
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May 14, 2022 03:49
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out of morrison's faction, frydenberg is much more closely aligned with the moderates than most & would be able to count on their support + a lot of morrison's faction which could be enough to win the leadership with a pitch of "morrison hurt us in the cities, dutton would be even worse, only i can win those seats back". but i do highly doubt that'd be enough to win the leadership over dutton since the moderates are likely to be the hardest hit seats-wise by any election loss.
lih fucked around with this message at 04:59 on May 14, 2022 |
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May 14, 2022 04:00
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imagining this like They Live but it looks the same with the glasses on/off
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May 14, 2022 04:47
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freebooter posted:The dumb part is the fact that he's assuming that the remaining Liberal MPs - who will predominantly be right wingers in safe seats - will install as leader somebody from the same faction as Morrison, who will have just led them to their biggest wipeout defeat since Rudd. I would have put money on him losing his seat, but I got better odds on a Labor Majority. No this makes no sense, I think it's just a lot of people are hoping he loses.
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May 14, 2022 05:00
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It just seems like terrible logic regardless of who is delivering it given 1) it assumes Golden Boy will retain Golden Boy status and stroll into leadership after he and his fellow moderates get pummeled at the polls - even if they're retained, surviving after a desperate rescue campaign doesn't exactly say "this is what the people want" and more importantly 2) it makes the crazy assumption that even if he did assume leadership that the LNP would take a journey to the centre and become a party of reason and olive branches and compromise. What, like Turnbull? The last time they suffered a crushing defeat they turned around a "surely they'll be out of government for a long time" situation rapidly by installing an obstructive hatchetman to spend his days hacking away at Labors legs non stop. They successfully tore down a Labor government strongly elected on addressing climate change!
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May 14, 2022 05:49
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Hey I wonder what's on Ch9 now oh
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May 14, 2022 05:50
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