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Kale posted:Do Americans really only understand politics in sheer black and white terms of opposition and extremes nowadays? Polls say: Pretty much! I saw a recent trendline that showed Democrats rating the economy as doing better beginning in Jan. 2021 & Republicans rating the economy as doing worse. To this day there's a pretty heavy partisan tilt; the most recent morningconsult survey shows that 66 percent of Democrats strongly or somewhat approve of Biden's handling of the economy, which drops to 26 percent among indy voters and 7 percent among GOP voters.
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May 19, 2022 16:35
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:gee who could have seen this coming Looks like the error mostly benefitted the Democrats, though. 5 out of 6 undercounted states was a red state, and 6 out of 8 overcounted states was a blue state. Not really surprising given how the GOP was making GBS threads on the census while the Democrats were making a big deal within their states about getting everyone to respond.
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May 19, 2022 16:38
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VideoGameVet posted:The immediate bipartisan action to prevent women from protesting at the homes of the justices just shows how much How have they been trying to prevent protesting at homes? Last I heard they were increasing personal security in case some crazy person tried to kill a judge over this while Congressional Democrat leaders were saying protesting at their homes was fine.
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May 19, 2022 16:41
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is valued by this admin over action. Sorry.
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Informative article in the Texas Tribune about Cuellar's primary. This is a really close race. It is going to a runoff after Cuellar won the initial primary by just 2.1%, 48.7% to 46.6%. https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/17/jessica-cisneros-henry-cuellar-texas-runoff-election/ Texas Tribune posted:The May 24 primary runoff election is a rematch from two years ago, when Cisneros fell just short of pushing Cuellar to a runoff in 2020. She is challenging him again, and once more, liberal groups are solidly consolidated behind her. Cuellar is undoubtedly formidable, with the backing of some of the party’s top national leaders. And as we saw in Schrader's district - the voters get to decide. And whatever the effect on Republicans, the Roe leak does not seem to be working out well for anti-abortion Dems. Cisneros seems like she could be a real star if she can gain office. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 16:51 on May 19, 2022 |
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May 19, 2022 16:43
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Rigel posted:How have they been trying to prevent protesting at homes? Last I heard they were increasing personal security in case some crazy person tried to kill a judge over this while Congressional Democrat leaders were saying protesting at their homes was fine. 1) What kind of message does it send that the current peaceful protests necessitate increased security? 2) What kind of message are you sending by saying that by labeling people as "crazy" if they might respond violently to being stripped of their bodily autonomy?
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May 19, 2022 16:47
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Mellow Seas posted:Well he lost, so at least Democratic voters seem to give a poo poo, which party leadership might notice at some point. And whatever their intentions for Schrader were are irrelevant now, because the voters said hell no. I'm absolutely waiting for the traditional dem "we'll burn the entire thing down before we cede any power to legitimately selected progressives" response, but it absolutely is heartening that primary voters are making their voices heard to some degree this season.
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May 19, 2022 17:09
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Rigel posted:Looks like the error mostly benefitted the Democrats, though. 5 out of 6 undercounted states was a red state, and 6 out of 8 overcounted states was a blue state. Not really surprising given how the GOP was making GBS threads on the census while the Democrats were making a big deal within their states about getting everyone to respond. The greater issue is that those red states were undercounting African-American and Hispanic people inside their state. If you're only looking at electoral votes/house reps, then this could be the difference between the just having current one majority-minority district in Alabama or adding another one. This isn't even looking at the different types of federal funding that gets doled out. edit: misread Arkansas and Alabama, which currently doesn't even have a majority-minority district. But I think the idea still stands, no matter what the state is. GoutPatrol fucked around with this message at 17:18 on May 19, 2022 |
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May 19, 2022 17:13
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Bishyaler posted:1) What kind of message does it send that the current peaceful protests necessitate increased security? Also, I'm not sure how many Democrats were actually saying protests at homes were okay apart from Chuck loving Schumer of all people.
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May 19, 2022 17:13
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Bishyaler posted:1) What kind of message does it send that the current peaceful protests necessitate increased security? Your comment is answering a question with a question, shifting the goalposts, and making a strawman argument
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May 19, 2022 17:13
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Mellow Seas posted:Informative article in the Texas Tribune about Cuellar's primary. I would encourage all the folks in this thread who have been fixated on Cuellar to check out his opponent's campaign. I'm absolutely certain that the Cisneros campaign could use folks from anywhere in the country to phonebank and help push her over the line. Put your money where your mouth is and help make some change, friends. https://www.mobilize.us/jessicacisnerosforcongress-tx28/event/452360/
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May 19, 2022 17:15
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expect more of this type of poo poo in many states https://twitter.com/boltsmag/status/1527328964401717273 essentially electoral colleges for states that weigh rural counties significantly higher, eliminating 1 person 1 vote. it is not going to succeed in Colorado, but red states are absolutely going to strip voting power away from metro areas.
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May 19, 2022 17:47
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Starks posted:Just to add to this very correct post, cattle account for something like 35% of all mammal biomass on earth thanks to humans. Wild mammals — every whale, elephant, etc — only account for 4%. So yeah, we have a long way to go before we have to worry about the extinction of the livestock cattle. Great so regulate the cows out of existence, replace them with fake beef. I'm fine with that. Nationalize the industry and destroy it. I'm fine with that. Saying "well you should know better" to poor americans(who are not the global poor) upset about rising grocery prices is pretty dumb.
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May 19, 2022 17:51
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Jaxyon posted:Great so regulate the cows out of existence, replace them with fake beef. I'm fine with that. Nationalize the industry and destroy it. I'm fine with that. We can raise beef in a manner that reduces the carbon/methane footprint but you’ll have less of to and a more expensive supply. Basically grazing I’ve been told.
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May 19, 2022 17:53
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VideoGameVet posted:We can raise beef in a manner that reduces the carbon/methane footprint but you’ll have less of to and a more expensive supply. I'm sure also I barely eat beef and don't care. I'm here about people upset that they can't grocery-scold people.
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May 19, 2022 18:00
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Willa Rogers posted:It's pretty much been a state-level issue for the last 30 years. While it might get some people out to vote in states with heavy restrictions or outright bans, the redder the state, the more restrictive its laws on abortion, and the less likely that the needle is moved on the issue. Dems can only do what the people in a system already rigged against them give them the ability to do. We're fighting an uphill battle with one arm tied behind our backs thanks to Supreme Court decisions - of which three appointees put there by Trump, which would have been appointed by Hilary if just 80,000 more people in a few more states had gone out and voted, decided several, including the upcoming challenge to Roe v Wade - and the very nature of the US Senate. Right now we have a tie and one or two senators can swing the whole thing and we have a very good chance of increasing that margin but only if people vote in numbers equal to 2020. Note: there is no way to recall a sitting senator. Once one is in, they're in. The only way to get them out is have 2/3rd senators vote to kick them out. Guess how many times that's happened in history? We are stuck with Manchin and Sinema until 2025. That's the reality. If Manchin loses he'll be replaced by a Republican, that's also the reality. If he's stripped of his committees etc, he'll defect to Republicans and that's the majority. The only realistic way to disempower them is to add more Democratic senators. That's it. We also have to keep the House, because these blood-gargling psychopaths like Marjorie Taylor Greene will be in charge if we don't. It doesn't matter if YOUR district's Republican candidate seems like a reasonable, nice quiet Republican. That's what they thought about the guy who won the Virginia governorship, and now he's trying to criminalize gay and trans kids, gut water protections, and forming task forces to try and rig Virginia's future elections through voter suppression. The House Republicans stripped their reasonable members of their assignments when they decided to join the investigation into the insurrection on 1/6. Reasonable Republicans won't do what you want them to do. They can't. The party's been captured by nutjobs. And not voting still hands them power.
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May 19, 2022 18:03
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VideoGameVet posted:The immediate bipartisan action to prevent women from protesting at the homes of the justices just shows how much You realize there are still three liberal justices on the Supreme Court that are a hell of a lot more likely to be gunned down by rightwing extremists, right. This isn't just about 'decorum' its about not wanting the first black female justice assassinated.
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May 19, 2022 18:05
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Oracle posted:Dems can only do what the people in a system already rigged against them give them the ability to do. We're fighting an uphill battle with one arm tied behind our backs thanks to Supreme Court decisions - of which three appointees put there by Trump, which would have been appointed by Hilary if just 80,000 more people in a few more states had gone out and voted, decided several, including the upcoming challenge to Roe v Wade - and the very nature of the US Senate. Right now we have a tie and one or two senators can swing the whole thing and we have a very good chance of increasing that margin but only if people vote in numbers equal to 2020. Just to be clear: This is what you'd text to an undecided voter to get them to vote Dem if they asked you why bother? If so, then I need to rephrase my question: What would be your couple-sentence pitch to get an undecided voter to vote Dem?
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May 19, 2022 18:11
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Willa Rogers posted:Just to be clear: This is what you'd text to an undecided voter to get them to vote Dem if they asked you why bother? Ken Bone wasn't actually undecided Willa. If you are undecided in 2022, you aren't worth pursuing. the trick is motivating people that are decided on the issues to actually vote.
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May 19, 2022 18:13
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I mean, I'm pretty sure a plurality of voters don't associate themselves with either major party, and even when leaners are factored in there are sizable numbers of voters who don't think it's a bloody war between the Righteous & the Evil, or who have more nuanced positions on the issues than "what dems support is good & what repubs support is bad." That's the sort of echo-chamber thinking that leads to electoral hubris, and then losses.
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May 19, 2022 18:16
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Willa Rogers posted:Just to be clear: This is what you'd text to an undecided voter to get them to vote Dem if they asked you why bother? Undecided voters are going to need a lot more than a quick text exchange to convince to do anything, and they're just as likely to be convinced by the last person they talk to. In short, they are not worth the effort. Shoring up voters in strategetic districts who came out for Dems in 2020 will have a lot more bang for my buck.
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May 19, 2022 18:17
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Oracle posted:Undecided voters are going to need a lot more than a quick text exchange to convince to do anything, and they're just as likely to be convinced by the last person they talk to. In short, they are not worth the effort. Shoring up voters in strategetic districts who came out for Dems in 2020 will have a lot more bang for my buck. Ok, so you would text those voters what you wrote? I'd still like to see an elevator pitch out of it, bc brevity's not only the soul of wit, but also the soul of political messaging, imo. eta: If I were texting (and believing it) Dems to get them to vote it'd be something like this: "Democrats are trying their best to help working families,* but the Republican minority in Congress won't let this happen. If you want to help Biden and other Democrats help America, please vote a straight Dem ticket in November." * "working families" has been the trope so long I wouldn't even bother trying to modify it, even though the phrase kinda turns my stomach. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 18:25 on May 19, 2022 |
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May 19, 2022 18:18
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Willa Rogers posted:I mean, I'm pretty sure a plurality of voters don't associate themselves with either major party If I had a dollar for every motherfucker i knew who "didn't associate themselves with either major party" and/or was "a political independent" or "free thinking moderate" and only ~incidentally~ loyally supported one party one hundred percent of the time always without fail and without regard to how insane and corrupt it was getting and will always do so until the sun burns out, I would be closing on a house of my choosing right now
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May 19, 2022 18:24
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Willa Rogers posted:I mean, I'm pretty sure a plurality of voters don't associate themselves with either major party, and even when leaners are factored in there are sizable numbers of voters who don't think it's a bloody war between the Righteous & the Evil, or who have more nuanced positions on the issues than "what dems support is good & what repubs support is bad." 1. unaffiliated voters are a very different category from undecided voters. 2. leaners are by definition not undecided. 3. most 'independent' voters do not swing from party to party each election. modern elections are completely won by turnout and suppression.
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May 19, 2022 18:28
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Staluigi posted:If I had a dollar for every motherfucker i knew who "didn't associate themselves with either major party" and/or was "a political independent" or "free thinking moderate" and only ~incidentally~ loyally supported one party one hundred percent of the time always without fail and without regard to how insane and corrupt it was getting and will always do so until the sun burns out, I would be closing on a house of my choosing right now Yes, I understand why partisans believe this, but issues polling shows vast differences; these are the voters who don't reflexively state that the president's doing a good job on the economy depending on the team jersey color. Indies, e.g., are much closer to Dems on the issue of abortion, while being much closer to Republicans on issues like the economy & immigration. Think of it in terms of that phrase that Obama supporters used to use: "low-info voters." Not everyone bases their political choices on cable-news output.
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May 19, 2022 18:29
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This will probably be as close to her saying a recession will be happening as she can get. https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1527333363777843201?t=kRgwzpOYfo8UcuwPR8xbGw&s=19 Powell has said expect more pain. CNN and Bloomberg both have stories up saying us rents hit another record high in April. https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/19/homes/us-rents-april/index.html One of the things I learned when reading about inflation pressures is rent is a lagging indicator and you tack on 3-6 months of rent increases for every new month of housing price increases. I believe I read this from Jason Furman. Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 18:38 on May 19, 2022 |
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May 19, 2022 18:31
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Oracle posted:
(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 19, 2022 19:10
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Oracle posted:Dems can only do what the people in a system already rigged against them give them the ability to do. We're fighting an uphill battle with one arm tied behind our backs thanks to Supreme Court decisions - of which three appointees put there by Trump, which would have been appointed by Hilary if just 80,000 more people in a few more states had gone out and voted, decided several, including the upcoming challenge to Roe v Wade - and the very nature of the US Senate. Right now we have a tie and one or two senators can swing the whole thing and we have a very good chance of increasing that margin but only if people vote in numbers equal to 2020. voting for dems also hands them power, as the current trifecta has spent the last two years reminding you. bit of a poser, imo.
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May 19, 2022 19:21
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Oracle posted:Dems can only do what the people in a system already rigged against them give them the ability to do. We're fighting an uphill battle with one arm tied behind our backs thanks to Supreme Court decisions - of which three appointees put there by Trump, which would have been appointed by Hilary if just 80,000 more people in a few more states had gone out and voted, decided several, including the upcoming challenge to Roe v Wade - and the very nature of the US Senate. I'm not sure this is entirely true. Kennedy only stepped down when he did so he could be replaced by a Republican, so very unlikely Hillary gets all three that Trump did. And unless those 80,000 people also produced a Democratic senate, there's no guarantee she even gets the other two. Maybe McConnell possesses enough shame that he wouldn't stall replacing Scalia for four years—though I wouldn't exactly bet my life on it—but RBG died two months before the 2020 election and he sure as poo poo would have been willing to wait on replacing her given he held up Garland's nomination for longer than that.
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May 19, 2022 19:21
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Sir Kodiak posted:I'm not sure this is entirely true. Kennedy only stepped down when he did so he could be replaced by a Republican, so very unlikely Hillary gets all three that Trump did. And unless those 80,000 people also produced a Democratic senate, there's no guarantee she even gets the other two. Maybe McConnell possesses enough shame that he wouldn't stall replacing Scalia for four years—though I wouldn't exactly bet my life on it—but RBG died two months before the 2020 election and he sure as poo poo would have been willing to wait on replacing her given he held up Garland's nomination for longer than that. If the Court is 4-4 for nearly five years and 4-3 for two months, the 2020 election is unrecognizable from this reality
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May 19, 2022 19:24
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haveblue posted:If the Court is 4-4 for 3.9 years and 4-3 for two months, the 2020 election is unrecognizable from this reality Yep. I'm not telling you I know what precisely would happen. But you shouldn't blindly reassign three successful Supreme Court appointments from Trump to Hillary based purely on the 2016 election going differently.
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May 19, 2022 19:27
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Yeah the party shouldn't have cleared the deck for Hillary in 2016 then we might not be in this mess but they did and we're here now so only thing to do is learn and move forward.
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May 19, 2022 19:32
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Gripweed posted:OK, so they tried to do something but then they couldn't. So the Democrats accomplished nothing. Yes, Democrats often have excuses for why they couldn't give the voters what they want but I don't see how that matters. Okay, at this point: Prove they could have done something. Their excuses is the very system that we are expecting them to work in, which is a very valid excuse. It sucks, but that's how the system works. They can't go full monty and just start caning the GOP to support them or beating Manchin until he votes correctly. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 19:40 on May 19, 2022 |
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May 19, 2022 19:34
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CommieGIR posted:They can't go full monty and just start caning the GOP to support them or beating Manchin until he votes correctly. Actually they can, but the last time they tried it triggered the Civil War
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May 19, 2022 19:41
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haveblue posted:Actually they can, but the last time they tried it triggered the Civil War  That was the point.
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May 19, 2022 19:43
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Sir Kodiak posted:Yep. I'm not telling you I know what precisely would happen. But you shouldn't blindly reassign three successful Supreme Court appointments from Trump to Hillary based purely on the 2016 election going differently. It probably would have been a 5-4 liberal Supreme Court and Clinton would have won reelection. It's also likely that she would have been running against Trump again. Remember that a lot of the pro-Covid and anti-masking bullshit came from Trump himself in order to pretend that everything was fine, which was amplified by Republicans. Republicans would have been up in arms over the death tolls, etc. and would have pointed out the "failures" of the Clinton administration by imposing Covid safety rules. Then 2020 comes and it's like... you want to entrust that guy with your safety? Even with a Republican Senate, I find it almost impossible to believe that they would have kept the seat open the entire time. At that point, all credibility is absolutely gone.
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May 19, 2022 19:48
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This is me personally, but I suspect Musk (who has already said he plans to vote for the GOP) is going to try to setup a spoiler part to draw away Dem votes and give the GOP an easier run at the polls. This is what Trump tried to do with Kanye in 2020 but of course Kanye was really a nobody political. I think Musk may have enough sway to setup a spoiler third party, even if he cannot run for President himself.
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May 19, 2022 19:49
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haveblue posted:Actually they can, but the last time they tried it triggered the Civil War CommieGIR posted:
It's a sad state of affairs when a run the jewels music video is the best outcome we're hoping for and full civil war is the worst outcome. kinda seems like the latter is becoming inevitable in some fashion or another. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUC2EQvdzmY
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May 19, 2022 19:50
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haveblue posted:Actually they can, but the last time they tried it triggered the Civil War Which is where we're headed anyway if we like the idea of women being people, because the second that SCOTUS decision is handed down trigger laws will kick in all over the US.
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May 19, 2022 19:50
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Willa Rogers posted:Nothing will be moving the needles politically as long as prices for food, shelter, healthcare & fuel continue their stratospheric climbs in this country. This right here man, 100% I heard Biden talking today about how great it is Scandinavian countries wanting to join NATO is and, OK, but I highly doubt your average United States voter gives much of a flying gently caress about it at all right now. BiggerBoat fucked around with this message at 22:13 on May 19, 2022 |
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May 19, 2022 19:51
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and offhand I can't think of an approach more tonedeaf to your average American voter.
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CommieGIR posted:This is me personally, but I suspect Musk (who has already said he plans to vote for the GOP) is going to try to setup a spoiler part to draw away Dem votes and give the GOP an easier run at the polls. He’s upset that other people care about workers and the environment and he just wants to lash out
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