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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1527023166090100736Nick Soapdish posted:This got a good chuckle from me
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May 19, 2022 16:53
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If Ukraine just made a run at Moscow they'd probably do much better than they should. Would assume any competent garrisons along the way have long been gutted and moved into Eastern Ukraine. Like capturing NYC with Mexican cavalry in 1936 hearts of iron.
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May 19, 2022 17:05
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I think that the 2016 coup was a laughably bad coup launched by interests in the military, rather than by the remain of Gülen's faction. I also think that the coup leaders dramatically overestimated their support inside the military and as a result, failed miserably. Either way, even if the coup was an elaborate and badly stage managed self-coup attempt or false flag, the result is the same. Erdogan has completely emptied out the state bureaucracy and replaced it with people who are answerable to the AKP and himself. Erdogan is probably more secure in his power than Putin is, because Erdogan's cronies personally owe their loyalty to him directly instead of Putin's more feudalist style dictatorship. Basically, don't expect either of these men to go anywhere any time soon. You don't end up the sole dictator of any country without very careful consideration of who your allies are.
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May 19, 2022 17:15
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A Festivus Miracle posted:I think that the 2016 coup was a laughably bad coup launched by interests in the military, rather than by the remain of Gülen's faction. I also think that the coup leaders dramatically overestimated their support inside the military and as a result, failed miserably. Either way, even if the coup was an elaborate and badly stage managed self-coup attempt or false flag, the result is the same. Erdogan has completely emptied out the state bureaucracy and replaced it with people who are answerable to the AKP and himself. Erdogan is probably more secure in his power than Putin is, because Erdogan's cronies personally owe their loyalty to him directly instead of Putin's more feudalist style dictatorship. Yeah, basically. Perhaps the CIA knows who the real ringleaders are, but it doesn't actually matter. All they accomplished was doing a laughably bad job, and cementing Erdogan's grip on power for a long, long time.
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May 19, 2022 17:38
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Oh wait. Laughably bad coup attempt? It was the CIA, wasn't it.
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May 19, 2022 17:39
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Hyrax Attack! posted:If Ukraine just made a run at Moscow they'd probably do much better than they should. Would assume any competent garrisons along the way have long been gutted and moved into Eastern Ukraine. Like capturing NYC with Mexican cavalry in 1936 hearts of iron. I just google maps'd this and it's about a 12 hour car drive from Kyiv to Moscow, 900 km. That's a lot of fuel.
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May 19, 2022 22:38
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If Ukraine even looked like they might be massing for a strike on Moscow, you'd see nukes drop. I will eat a ban if I'm wrong.
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May 19, 2022 22:45
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Not even the OTR-21 could make Moscow from Ukraine's northernmost border point.
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May 19, 2022 22:47
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:If Ukraine even looked like they might be massing for a strike on Moscow, you'd see nukes drop. I will eat a ban if I'm wrong. Oh, we probably all would.
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May 19, 2022 22:52
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Does Ukraine currently possess the means to take out the Crimean Bridge? And if not, can they get them from Lend Lease? I get that taking Crimea is the moonshot here, but if it was going to happen it would have to begin with knocking out the bridge.
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May 19, 2022 22:56
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Hey, Ukraine, wanna test our latest shore-based anti-ship missile platform for us?
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May 19, 2022 23:06
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Joke Miriam posted:Does Ukraine currently possess the means to take out the Crimean Bridge? And if not, can they get them from Lend Lease? They didn't get that one... From Twitter https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1527051521975779328?t=TdlkzKZpi9CxVwNhxvUBCw&s=19 Syrian Lannister fucked around with this message at 23:13 on May 19, 2022 |
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May 19, 2022 23:10
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Joke Miriam posted:Does Ukraine currently possess the means to take out the Crimean Bridge? And if not, can they get them from Lend Lease? The short answer is no. Bridges are actually pretty tough, and I betcha that the Crimean bridge is significantly overbuilt. Even if NATO were in a shooting war with Russia, the Crimea Bridge would be a very difficult target.
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May 19, 2022 23:29
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Joke Miriam posted:Does Ukraine currently possess the means to take out the Crimean Bridge? And if not, can they get them from Lend Lease? I'm betting they possess the means to keep it repeatedly sown with artillery-scattered mines, if they can't knock it down outright.
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May 20, 2022 00:27
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I can not imagine why it would be significantly overbuilt.
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May 20, 2022 00:29
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Madurai posted:I'm betting they possess the means to keep it repeatedly sown with artillery-scattered mines, if they can't knock it down outright. I'm not certain on the exact numbers, but I think the bridge is at the extreme range of Ukraine's longest range rocket artillery. While a bridge is a long and tall target, it presents a very narrow profile against attacks from above, and in this case, a miss of one meter might as well be a mile. Not only that, but scattered mines on a hard surface are dangerous, but typically nowhere near as difficult to clear as on soft or overgrown terrain. They'll certainly be very easy to see.
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May 20, 2022 01:19
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A.o.D. posted:I'm not certain on the exact numbers, but I think the bridge is at the extreme range of Ukraine's longest range rocket artillery. While a bridge is a long and tall target, it presents a very narrow profile against attacks from above, and in this case, a miss of one meter might as well be a mile. Not only that, but scattered mines on a hard surface are dangerous, but typically nowhere near as difficult to clear as on soft or overgrown terrain. They'll certainly be very easy to see. Sail a tractor to one of the supports
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May 20, 2022 01:39
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Nick Soapdish posted:https://twitter.com/iAmTheWarax/status/1527250316487532546?t=A1DpVWqX4YFlzDCMBJyOwg&s=19 Coward protects his tweets. 
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May 20, 2022 01:58
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mrmcd posted:Oh wait. Laughably bad coup attempt? It was the CIA, wasn't it. If it was that plane wouldve been atomized.
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May 20, 2022 01:59
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Madurai posted:I'm betting they possess the means to keep it repeatedly sown with artillery-scattered mines, if they can't knock it down outright. It is hundreds plural of km from Ukrainian controlled land.
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May 20, 2022 03:21
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mlmp08 posted:It is hundreds plural of km from Ukrainian controlled land. Looking at google earth, wikipedia and the latest twitter maps, even an ATACMS wouldn't have the range to hit the bridge.
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May 20, 2022 03:58
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mlmp08 posted:It is hundreds plural of km from Ukrainian controlled land. Roughly 230 km to Tokmak, the closest Ukrainian-held position I could find.
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May 20, 2022 04:33
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There is no way to take out the bridge. They have no ballistic missiles with enough range let alone accuracy. Blowing up bridges with airplanes using unguided munitions is hard, it's pretty far for a MiG-29, and the place is swarming with air defenses. Boats carrying commandos would very definitely be intercepted if they could even get that far, which they can't. And moreover taking out the bridge would not impose a severe logistical constraint on the Russians anyway. Most of the stuff they need is already in Crimea.
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May 20, 2022 05:15
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Could they just cut off the water after or does Russia still control that area?
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May 20, 2022 06:03
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Simply have a submarine torpedo the bridge.
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May 20, 2022 06:04
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my kinda ape posted:Simply have a submarine torpedo the bridge. ELON!!!!!
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May 20, 2022 06:07
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Maybe they should lend-lease a few Tomahawks.
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May 20, 2022 06:57
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mlmp08 posted:It is hundreds plural of km from Ukrainian controlled land. I assume that neutralizing the bridge is a moot point until they're well into the hypothetical counterattack into Crimea.
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May 20, 2022 07:33
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my kinda ape posted:Simply have a submarine torpedo the bridge. Comrade Blyatlov posted:ELON!!!!! Just put a Tesla on it and light it on fire. Burns longer than thermite
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May 20, 2022 07:55
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The bridge is more useful standing, as it gives the Russians easy means to retreat should the Ukrainians make a serious push. If they manage to recapture Crimea, then demolishing the bridge makes sense. Destroying the bridge will encourage some defenders to fight harder, and the Russians do not need it to move troops or supplies into Ukraine or Crimea. They have sufficient means to supply Crimea by sea, and the long land border gives them ample opportunity to support operations elsewhere.
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May 20, 2022 11:17
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Getting close enough to cut off the water supply (i think they also have water piped in from the russian mainland as well) and targetted destruction of Sevastopol naval facilities & structures would be better than attempting an invasion of Crimea (while hopefully avoiding Clancyland).
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May 20, 2022 13:11
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There are only two land routes into Crimea from the mainland and Ukraine doesn't have much by way of amphibious assault capability. Thus the most likely outcome for Crimea is that a referendum on its status will be agreed upon as part of a peace treaty, once Russia has been pushed back to its pre-2014 borders on the mainland. Then it remains to be seen whether Russia can be bullied into actually honoring the treaty instead of setting up a Kashmir-style frozen conflict. The most interesting outcome would be the re-establishment of the Crimean People's Republic. 
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May 20, 2022 14:14
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I don't think it's very likely Ukraine is going to be able to push back to the pre-2014 borders.
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May 20, 2022 16:34
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glynnenstein posted:I don't think it's very likely Ukraine is going to be able to push back to the pre-2014 borders. What's going to happen is that at some point Ukraine will face the same situation the Russians faced around kyiv: is it worth invading a civilian city? And the Ukrainians will probably go no and opt for a seige instead and we will have a new frozen conflict. I don't see negotiations achieving anything because the Russians can't be trusted
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May 20, 2022 16:37
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I can see value in attempting negotiations but I'm not going to fault Ukraine at all when they fall apart due to bad faith and trolling from Russia. Nothing from them should be accepted if it doesn't start from the position of "You first, prove you're not lying"
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May 20, 2022 16:58
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:What's going to happen is that at some point Ukraine will face the same situation the Russians faced around kyiv: is it worth invading a civilian city? This presupposes that 1) the Russian army can be convinced to dig in and hold for a protracted city fight, and 2) that the civilian populace really wants Russia there after all the forced disappearances, conscription and miscellaneous war crimes. That so many of the "volunteers" in the Donbas are issued ancient trash and assigned Chechen blockers to "motivate" them to fight does not suggest to me that the populace is overly thrilled or energized to become a part of Russia, and Russia certainly doesn't view them as reliable. With morale being the shits like it is for most Russian units, which already seem to be badly battered composites, I can't see whatever is driven into a city after losing the fight in the countryside being able or willing to mount much more than a token resistance. Not an expert, mind so I could very easily be completely and totally wrong. I'm just not so sure that the Russian Army is capable of sustaining a brutal siege defence.
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May 20, 2022 17:12
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All of Russia's offers to date have been "give us everything we want, plus nations not involved in this conflict have to give us what we want and maybe we'll stop killing you after we annex you." There is no basis for any sort of negotiation, and Ukraine shouldn't seriously entertain any notion of doing so until Russia approaches the table with an enforceable plan of settlement. Until Russia fundamentally changes their approach, Ukraine should approach this war with the belief that only military Victory can secure their survival.
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May 20, 2022 17:13
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Fearless posted:This presupposes that 1) the Russian army can be convinced to dig in and hold for a protracted city fight, and 2) that the civilian populace really wants Russia there after all the forced disappearances, conscription and miscellaneous war crimes. That's fair but also unpredictable and it wouldn't require a lot of defenders to make offensive building to building war impracticable, because the Ukrainians have to actually avoid civilian casualties. They can't just shell everything into smithereens. Total collapse and retreat would certainly be the Ukrainian goal though.
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May 20, 2022 17:28
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:That's fair but also unpredictable and it wouldn't require a lot of defenders to make offensive building to building war impracticable, because the Ukrainians have to actually avoid civilian casualties. They can't just shell everything into smithereens. Total collapse and retreat would certainly be the Ukrainian goal though. Worth pointing out that the Ukrainian army would almost certainly be much more amenable to allowing civilians to evacuate the city than their Russian counterparts, who have actively striven to keep a populace captive for easier war crimin'. I do agree that the Ukrainians can't just batter their own city to smithereens, but I think the primary hazard to a civilian populace in this situation is the Russians using them as human shields or just getting (extra) spiteful and shooting at fleeing civilians (or infiltrating their own saboteurs into those masses).
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May 20, 2022 17:43
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Why are our fortifications exploding?! https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1527454308115042305 Oh...
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May 20, 2022 17:55
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