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mlmp08 posted:It’s pretty normal stuff. In a fair number of weapons sales, there are provisions in the agreement to ensure the buyer is the end user and doesn’t proliferate the weapons to third parties. Also things like resell the tech, use it to attack certain countries, hook it up to certain networks, among other things. This can also be the case even if the country only provides one component of the system, like avionics on a plane. This is why Argentina no longer has an airforce, because there's British parts in every western and allied plane, and the Brits won't allow them to be sold to Argentina. Argentina could have gone with Russian gear, but this war has proven that might not have been better than just not having an airforce.
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May 25, 2022 23:53
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https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1529594281605881860
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May 25, 2022 23:56
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This doesnt make a lot of sense to me. They won at Kyiv, Russia withdrew from all other places. So they took one L and thats enough to go pessimistic?
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May 26, 2022 00:01
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CommieGIR posted:This doesnt make a lot of sense to me. They won at Kyiv, Russia withdrew from all other places. So they took one L and thats enough to go pessimistic? Right, especially when contrasted with the official who said they were going to be retaking Crimea by the end of the year.
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May 26, 2022 00:08
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CommieGIR posted:This doesnt make a lot of sense to me. They won at Kyiv, Russia withdrew from all other places. So they took one L and thats enough to go pessimistic? "Pessimistic" is perhaps an editorial opinion. Haven't heard the interview, however. But, yeah, they seemed after about the third day to control the pace, and narrative, and have lost that pace, but that only means Russia has adapted as armies do. With defenders in somewhat fixed positions, they are returning to artillery doctrine: blanket, soften, and push. This is one reason why the Ukrainians have been so vocal, and irritated, by their inability to procure effective airframes.
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May 26, 2022 00:09
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CommieGIR posted:This doesnt make a lot of sense to me. They won at Kyiv, Russia withdrew from all other places. So they took one L and thats enough to go pessimistic? What's his account name.
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May 26, 2022 00:11
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Risky Bisquick posted:My understanding is that this reflects the changing operational capacity and capability of the ZSU. They obviously are privy to information we are not, and the statement above reflects confidence in achieving the stated goals. I guess my fear is that soon, Ukraine will want to try and recapture Crimea, which could lead to serious escalation as Russia is very adamant about it being Russian territory, and Larvov made nuclear threats to Ukraine if they ever decided to try and recapture Crimea Sergey Larvov posted:If it comes to aggression against Russian territory, which Crimea and Sevastopol are parts of, I would not advise anyone to do this...We have the doctrine of national security, and it very clearly regulates the actions, which will be taken in this case https://thediplomat.com/2014/07/russia-threatens-nuclear-strikes-over-crimea/ (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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May 26, 2022 00:16
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Willo567 posted:I guess my fear is that soon, Ukraine will want to try and recapture Crimea, which could lead to serious escalation as Russia is very adamant about it being Russian territory, and Larvov made nuclear threats to Ukraine if they ever decided to try and recapture Crimea Yeah, that's always your fear. Stop asking us to console you about it.
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May 26, 2022 00:17
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Deteriorata posted:Yeah, that's always your fear. Stop asking us to console you about it. Jesus, seriously
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May 26, 2022 00:25
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Willo567 posted:I guess my fear is that soon, Ukraine will want to try and recapture Crimea, which could lead to serious escalation as Russia is very adamant about it being Russian territory, and Larvov made nuclear threats to Ukraine if they ever decided to try and recapture Crimea As of today, Ukraine retaking Crimea by force is a complete pipe dream. There is nothing to suggest that it is something that could happen anytime soon. I wouldn't spend too much time worrying about it, or linking sabre-rattling pieces from 8 years ago. The present concern is Ukraine losing outright in the East.
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May 26, 2022 00:29
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CommieGIR posted:This doesnt make a lot of sense to me. They won at Kyiv, Russia withdrew from all other places. So they took one L and thats enough to go pessimistic? in the same situation i would be aggravatingly pessimistic about it to the international community, because optimistic lead-ins like "yeah we got this poo poo in the bag, we hosed em up only a matter of time lads" leads to other countries feeling like there's no longer a sense of urgency to supply Ukraine but if you continue to press the sense of constantly having to stave off downturn or russian resurgence, the steady supply of very useful murder tools continues its regular rate of supply a bit hard to push and have the messaging be compatible entirely with the current condition of Ukraine recently fully defeating russia in the Kharkiv battles and forcing a full withdrawal there, creating an officially complete collapse of russia's northern front, but Ukraine has not been known for their messaging failures yet
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May 26, 2022 00:58
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I recall a few people musing in the thread on the mystery of vanishing cope cages. Seems like we have an answer: https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1529590482770317317 Interesting thread in general. Edit: https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1529617839895756800 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 01:48 on May 26, 2022 |
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May 26, 2022 01:43
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I can't roll my eyes hard enough at concessions to "the West".Kavros posted:in the same situation i would be aggravatingly pessimistic about it to the international community, because optimistic lead-ins like "yeah we got this poo poo in the bag, we hosed em up only a matter of time lads" leads to other countries feeling like there's no longer a sense of urgency to supply Ukraine
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May 26, 2022 02:05
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Risky Bisquick posted:Off topic, was the T-62 the tank with very low tanker height restrictions? I recall a conversation with a Russian colleague who was stationed as a tanker in the 80s and he mentioned there was a low max height, granted he was 5’4”. Soviet tanker heights were strict for the driver in particular, as the driver station was designed with a certain height in mind. Usually you had to be under five and a half feet for that role. Here's a six foot tall man squeezing into a T-55's driver seat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEDhB9evPvw&t=837s. I've read that starting with the T-72, the driver compartment is more forgiving, but not by much. I've read that if you could perform your job and could fit through the hatches for the other positions, they'd let you serve as crew, but most Soviet production tanks were low on crew space or were at least designed for certain body dimensions. Coquito Ergo Sum fucked around with this message at 02:27 on May 26, 2022 |
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May 26, 2022 02:21
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Coquito Ergo Sum posted:Soviet tanker heights were strict for the driver in particular, as the driver station was designed with a certain height in mind. Usually you had to be under five and a half feet for that role. Here's a six foot tall man squeezing into a T-55's driver seat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEDhB9evPvw&t=837s. I've read that starting with the T-72, the driver compartment is more forgiving, but not by much. I've read that if you could perform your job and could fit through the hatches for the other positions, they'd let you serve as crew, but most Soviet production tanks were cramped, even compared to their peers. The T-62 is cramped even for Russian tanks. It's basically a stretched T-55, with a bigger 115mm gun. Bigger gun and bigger ammo means less room for the crew. It was horrendous to be the loader in particular having a tiny space to load pretty hefty rounds from rather inconvenient places. This was also the last design before autoloaders became the standard.
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May 26, 2022 02:31
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Being a loader always sounded like the pits. Most tanks have them sitting against the back of the turret with nothing to do, occasionally interrupted with the world's most stressful strength training exercise.
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May 26, 2022 02:32
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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May 26, 2022 02:57
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ISW update! With interesting thread describing their methodology for updating the maps when reports are conflicting https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1529615124096552962?s=20&t=VamEg7Xp1lYSZphG2w2DtA https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-25 https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1529617021247361030?s=20&t=uGuKiAps7Ntkyxy-mzzUSg Examples https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1529618214220709889?s=20&t=uGuKiAps7Ntkyxy-mzzUSg https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1529618851373232128?s=20&t=uGuKiAps7Ntkyxy-mzzUSg Worthwhile thread for those interested in methodology Big quote chunks today - I pulled items focusing on the eastern front quote:Some pro-Russian milbloggers on Telegram continued to criticize the Kremlin for appalling treatment of forcefully mobilized Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) servicemen–contradicting Russian information campaigns about progress of the Russian special military operation. Former Russian Federal Security Service officer Igor Girkin (also known by the alias Igor Strelkov) amplified a critique to his 360,000 followers from a smaller milblogger discussing a video wherein a DNR battalion appealed to DNR Head Denis Pushilin about maltreatment of forcefully mobilized forces.[1] The milblogger blamed Russian leadership, not Pushilin, for beginning the invasion with insufficient reserves and unprepared, forcefully mobilized forces. TL;DR: https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1529613571608436738?s=20&t=lVJlZPYsKGnRV_vRlOi1aQ
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May 26, 2022 03:11
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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1529602163567206400 I wonder how close to accurate this claim of Javelins needing 10 hits per kill is. That's shockingly poor performance to me.
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May 26, 2022 04:45
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Bashez posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1529602163567206400 I can't imagine it's easy to tell the difference between one missile hitting your tank and another hitting it. Could easily be they got dinged by older/less effective stuff, and generalized it all into "javelin".
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May 26, 2022 04:54
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Neorxenawang posted:I can't imagine it's easy to tell the difference between one missile hitting your tank and another hitting it. Could easily be they got dinged by older/less effective stuff, and generalized it all into "javelin". Probably fairly easy. There was a saying about Allied tankers in WW2 reporting that every anti-gun they fought was an 88.
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May 26, 2022 05:04
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Bashez posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1529602163567206400 That’s not what his claim was. It was seeing 10 hits on different tanks. And reporting seeing one K-Kill from 10 hits in total (not 10 missiles vs one tank). A tank can have zero fire control left and not be a k-kill. Its engine could be shattered and not be a k-kill. The crew could be wounded and evacuated from the battlefield, abandoning the tank, and that’s not a k-kill. Plus it’s probably hard for him to know exactly what type missile hit what unless he’s over there digging through the debris for parts of the missile body after the fact.
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May 26, 2022 05:05
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He's just saying that only one out of ten missiles completely obliterated the tank in such a way that there was no way to ever rebuild it into a functional tank. Which aren't good odds for the tanks or the pilots, considering that means that you have a 10% chance of being instantly made into chunky salsa and there's nothing you can do about it as a tanker.
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May 26, 2022 05:14
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mlmp08 posted:It was seeing 10 hits on different tanks. And reporting seeing one K-Kill from 10 hits in total (not 10 missiles vs one tank). That's what I'm saying. That seems far worse than what's been reported afaik. He seems to imply that concussions are somewhat common from javelin strikes.
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May 26, 2022 05:26
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Bashez posted:That's what I'm saying. That seems far worse than what's been reported afaik. He seems to imply that concussions are somewhat common from javelin strikes. I suspect this is similar to the "Tiger terror" phenomenon that us tankers had in WWII - every tank they observed was, in their eyes, a Tiger - in this case I suspect that every missile, rpg, or drone dropped grenade is a javelin.
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May 26, 2022 05:53
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Here’s a video of a Switchblade 300 launch. It doesn’t destroy anything. Just a video of it launching and then a shot of how it’s controlled. https://t.me/combat_ftg/1136
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May 26, 2022 06:02
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1529704125746880512?s=20&t=SWkjsUushLMUsjz-mpyc2A
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May 26, 2022 07:53
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As a daily watcher of Arestovich-Feygin streams, it did not strike me any more pessimistic than any of thread's favored analysts - he just said that situation on the east is bad (mainly due to Russian concentration of forces and material) and the encirclement of Severodonetsk is possible. Arestovich is frequently crticized as being overly positive so I guess now the office directed him to provide a reality check instead, because its never correct to project a total denial field that Russians do in their clownshoe glory.
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May 26, 2022 07:58
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1529704125746880512?s=20&t=SWkjsUushLMUsjz-mpyc2A I see people quote the Kyiv Independent a lot and -- not directed at you specifically -- is that really any more reliable regarding the Ukraine War than quoting RT? Like I get that there are no unbiased sources, but some sources I'd trust way less than others, and I get that this is actually quoting the UK in a roundabout way (so why not just quote the UK report directly), but for things that are actually news directly from Kyiv Independent, it seems ... probably not totally 100% reliable.
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May 26, 2022 09:11
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I think there has been a touch of victory sickness from the incredible achievements by Ukraine in the first 80 days, which in no small part were due to Russian incompetence and overambition. Now that Russia is fighting more carefully and slowly we probably won't see many of the major Russian loses that defined the start of the war. Russia is now advancing on the areas where they have maximum advantage, so Ukraine's real play here is to delay and make it as costly as possible, rather than another miracle. What happens after these easy gains are realised is another matter. The smart play for Russia would be to declare mission accomplished and try to solidify those areas. I don't think we'll see any major deep incursions past these areas (but then again Russia has proven willing to be incredibly dumb time and time again). I have no idea how the long war that takes shape at this point will go, but at present time seems to be against Russia as they've burnt so many resources just to get this far.
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May 26, 2022 09:35
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Kyiv Independent has been pretty reliable throughout this, though I'm also separating them from Ilia Ponamarenko who I would not always say the same of. Unless you have some evidence to the contrary, which I'd be curious to see, they are not state run media like RT is.
Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 09:39 on May 26, 2022 |
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May 26, 2022 09:35
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Saladman posted:I see people quote the Kyiv Independent a lot and -- not directed at you specifically -- is that really any more reliable regarding the Ukraine War than quoting RT? So, which question are you trying to ask? Is it more reliable than RT, or is it 100% reliable? There’s “slight” difference between the two. Kyiv Independent is a crowd-funded journal, whereas RT is an explicit state disinformation arm, currently tasked with covering up a genocide. Will Kyiv Independent’s reporting contain Ukrainian propaganda? Sure, but what’s their propaganda about - the crime of self-defence? In my experience, their reporting is fairly good for staying up-to-date with direct quotes of Ukrainian and Russian officials, but the quality does drop a bit for them parsing foreign stuff.
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May 26, 2022 09:37
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Bug Squash posted:I think there has been a touch of victory sickness from the incredible achievements by Ukraine in the first 80 days, which in no small part were due to Russian incompetence and overambition. Now that Russia is fighting more carefully and slowly we probably won't see many of the major Russian loses that defined the start of the war. Russia is now advancing on the areas where they have maximum advantage, so Ukraine's real play here is to delay and make it as costly as possible, rather than another miracle. What happens after these easy gains are realised is another matter. The smart play for Russia would be to declare mission accomplished and try to solidify those areas. I don't think we'll see any major deep incursions past these areas (but then again Russia has proven willing to be incredibly dumb time and time again). I have no idea how the long war that takes shape at this point will go, but at present time seems to be against Russia as they've burnt so many resources just to get this far. In gaming terms: welcome to the "grind".
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May 26, 2022 09:47
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1529704125746880512?s=20&t=SWkjsUushLMUsjz-mpyc2A That's just how airborne troops roll: get themselves stuck in a stupid place unsupported and get killed en masse. Crete 1941, Vyazma 1942, Dnieper 1943, Arnhem 1944, Hostomel 2022... all branches of armed forces love tradition.
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May 26, 2022 10:05
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fatherboxx posted:As a daily watcher of Arestovich-Feygin streams, it did not strike me any more pessimistic than any of thread's favored analysts - he just said that situation on the east is bad (mainly due to Russian concentration of forces and material) and the encirclement of Severodonetsk is possible. Arestovich is frequently crticized as being overly positive so I guess now the office directed him to provide a reality check instead, because its never correct to project a total denial field that Russians do in their clownshoe glory. It's an issue of expectations. After winning the battle of Kyiv, a lot of people expected the war to end, but simply due to the scale of Russia it is likely that Ukraine will have to accept a victory that may look like a defeat ie loss of DNR/LNR and Crimea. That will be a political dangerous moment for Ukraine.
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May 26, 2022 10:44
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Saladman posted:I see people quote the Kyiv Independent a lot and -- not directed at you specifically -- is that really any more reliable regarding the Ukraine War than quoting RT? At worst it's a bit overly positive regarding Ukraine, but it's fairly reliable. The only really bad reporting I've seen from them is misunderstanding from other sources where I think it has more to do with language barriers than deliberate attempts at misinformation and it's something you can see all news sites do. It is far more reliable than RT, like they are not at all in the same category. That said, I usually check for other news sources if their claims sound a bit to good or sensational.
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May 26, 2022 11:09
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https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1529739187859103745?t=6cgKuA9o0fUDrjtq0T0NyQ&s=19 Bear witness; the Ghost of Azovstal is born
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May 26, 2022 11:18
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Mediazona made an interactive map of Russian marauders sending out the looted goods through SDEK (popular private mail service) https://twitter.com/eskovoroda/status/1529764087797891077?t=PUeYCBzZ6Et19rswc_qxhA&s=19 Comically, there is one Orlan drone they have apparently looted from themselves
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May 26, 2022 11:34
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FishBulbia posted:It's an issue of expectations. After winning the battle of Kyiv, a lot of people expected the war to end, but simply due to the scale of Russia it is likely that Ukraine will have to accept a victory that may look like a defeat ie loss of DNR/LNR and Crimea. That will be a political dangerous moment for Ukraine. That is quite some contradictory bullshit phrasing you have there. Just say that Ukraine and its people will have to accept some form of negotiated end to the war that is not on their terms. If Ukraine and its people see any loss of territory as a loss then it will be a loss and treated as such domestically. Russia will claim "an end of the successful special operation" in any case that is not a full annihilation of the separatist republics and the Russian forces in Ukraine.
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May 26, 2022 13:37
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FishBulbia posted:It's an issue of expectations. After winning the battle of Kyiv, a lot of people expected the war to end, but simply due to the scale of Russia it is likely that Ukraine will have to accept a victory that may look like a defeat ie loss of DNR/LNR and Crimea. That will be a political dangerous moment for Ukraine. Isn't more likely that they will just keeping fighting? And the same for Russia, as they would not accept anything which lets Ukraine join the EU and military pacts with other countries? That's the great tragedy of this war as I see it - beyond what has already happened. Ukraine (government and population majority) won't accept conceding territory. Russia (regime and maybe some population - this I don't know well) won't accept a Ukraine aligned with EU/NATO and with a large military. I can't see this war ending before one side or the other cracks - or years have gone by. This is why the invasion was so insane - not just because it reckless, brutal and a waste of human life - but also because the rhetoric and war goals have painted Kremlin into a corner in regards to ending the war. War crimes and alienating many Russian-oriented Ukrainians compound this. Would Russia leave the occupied southern non-Donbas, non-Ukraine parts of Ukraine? Kherson? Enerhodar? The current territorial lines are not a viable foundation for peace. Ironically, the argument of "just give up already, so the war can end sooner" used by some western leaders not out of love for Ukraine and Russia, but out of selfish convenience, now actually applies to Putin. He can end this war by saying 'enough is enough' and pulling back to pre-invasion lines. It might not be enough to get Ukraine to stop fighting, but it's the best chance for a ceasefire right now. It would also start Russia back on a path towards normalization (even if only a tiny step). Saying "crimes have been committed, this was bad, I will punish all war criminals" would accomplish something. But it is obvious at this point that the Ukrainian leadership will keep fighting. If they kept fighting when Kyiv and Kharkiv were sieged, multiple cities all but cut off and many looking poised to fall - of course they will keep fighting now. Unless Russia can conquer all of Ukraine, and then occupy it, this war will continue. That's not likely. I admit I was optimistic about a Russian rout not too long ago - and I still think it could happen suddenly - but now I think we're looking at months of horrible war engulfing not just Donbas, but other parts of Ukraine. And the longer it goes on, the greater the risk is of terrorist strikes inside Russia and other kinds of escalation. I'm honestly very positively surprised there hasn't been some grudge-carrying Ukrainians heading across the border and retaliating against civilian targets. TL; DR - I don't see any chance of ceasefire/peace unless the one who has the centralized power to act on it (Putin) wants to - and concedes a lot. The Ukrainian leadership does not have the centralized decision making power to do this, even if they wanted to.
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May 26, 2022 13:47
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