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i think he is wrong on this. maybe post 2024 but i dont think Russia lasts til then especially if they lose Kherson and other battles and Americans arnt losing any blood in the fight outside various individuals. i think some EU leaders want to but its clear that ukraine will fight as long as they can. at some point some 1917 army mutinies will hit the russians. KitConstantine posted:Something something Stalin its because he is worried if a popular competent officer comes along then he is loving gone. all Putin has now is being a spider of the bureaucracy and he has enough spy ghouls to kill his enemies.
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Jun 3, 2022 17:51
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RE: the west getting tired: of what? Bleeding Russia and feeding money continuously to the MIC: definitely a thing the US will hate
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Jun 3, 2022 17:58
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:RE: the west getting tired: of what? Bleeding Russia and feeding money continuously to the MIC: definitely a thing the US will hate Not making money by selling cars and guns to Russia
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Jun 3, 2022 18:04
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There's a definite concern Russia can push enough influence to control the election cycle this year and control us congress. It's an unfortunate possibility that if house and Senate go Republican (which is statistically probable for midterms) they will push to lift all sanctions
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Jun 3, 2022 18:04
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notwithoutmyanus posted:There's a definite concern Russia can push enough influence to control the election cycle this year and control us congress. It's an unfortunate possibility that if house and Senate go Republican (which is statistically probable for midterms) they will push to lift all sanctions They can't do poo poo to lift sanctions unless they also win the presidency, which means early 2025 at the earliest. They could refuse to pass new ones, though.
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Jun 3, 2022 18:15
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mobby_6kl posted:I think the problem with this is that while we're lucky that 2/3rds of russian economy is natural resource extraction, the downside is that even if all of Europe goes fully renewable and stops imports, the rest of the world will be more than happy to buy it at a small discount. These are all things that can be worked around over time, but it takes time and money to do so. And all of this will continue to degrade Russia's ability to field and supply a modern military.
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Jun 3, 2022 18:15
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The west is going to get tired of making the best deal of the loving century.
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Jun 3, 2022 18:16
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i think he is wrong on this. maybe post 2024 but i dont think Russia lasts til then especially if they lose Kherson and other battles and Americans arnt losing any blood in the fight outside various individuals. i think some EU leaders want to but its clear that ukraine will fight as long as they can. at some point some 1917 army mutinies will hit the russians. Winter will come in less than 6 months, oil and gas will become a more pronounced issue in Europe, public fatigue/boredom with the war will set in (it already is). People, including German leadership, will start to wonder aloud when and how this ends and how it "obviously" isn't sustainable indefinitely. In November the Republican party will win sweeping victories in the US House of Representatives and the Senate. They will start a dozen bogus investigations and impeach Biden and possibly other senior officials. They won't be able to remove him from office but they will turn the focus inward and create enough distraction and political cost to Biden's continued focus on foreign policy to get the US eye off the ball. Ukraine will be forced to accept whatever deal is on the table and sanctions will be lifted by Spring 2023. Hopefully I'm wrong. The West and the forces of democracy can easily outlast Russia if they have the will to do so. But Putin is 100% right about Western leaders being vulnerable to election cycles.
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Jun 3, 2022 18:16
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Paladinus posted:The official response from Russia to similar videos in the past was 'DNR is an independent state, talk to your own president'. Putin is not overwhelmingly well-liked by separatists to begin with, because many think that they were abandoned by Russia in 2015, when Russia basically traded LDNR's independence for avoiding the more severe sanctions (see Strelkov's TG channel for the best example of this sort thinking). I expect that the sentiment is only going to grow when/if Russia fails to rebuild newly occupied territories, and financial support of LDNR completely dries up. not to mention basically throwing most of the men of the region into the meat grinder.
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Jun 3, 2022 18:18
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i think he is wrong on this. maybe post 2024 but i dont think Russia lasts til then especially if they lose Kherson and other battles and Americans arnt losing any blood in the fight outside various individuals. i think some EU leaders want to but its clear that ukraine will fight as long as they can. at some point some 1917 army mutinies will hit the russians Yeah, the US is able to spend an extremely long time pouring resources into wars even when there are US troops dying in them. A war where no US citizens die? Just one massive excuse to pour even more money into making military equipment? What are they even going to get tired of?
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Jun 3, 2022 18:18
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Putin can absolutely still "win" this if his friends win elections in enough key western countries. He's already go enough pals in power throughout the west to sabotage a ton of aid and sanctions. It's a bit of a long shot for Putin though, and the longer he holds out hope for the long-game the longer he's being bled dry and the more expensive his eventual loss will be. I just wish the west would ramp up support quicker, the folks prolonging the fighting and suffering are the germans and hungarians of the world. Folks who are anti-war and want to stop the fighting should support a massive upswing in western military aid to help end the conflict faster.
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Jun 3, 2022 18:20
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Normal guy just trying to escape for a few hours, but real life interrupts with a new normal. https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1532761741746110465?cxt=HHwWgoCw4dyru8UqAAAA
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Jun 3, 2022 18:25
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Lately I am increasingly preoccupied with this as not a proxy war between US/Nato and Russia, but as a proxy war between the forces of Democracy and the rule of law and Autocracy. In theory, NATO and the EU are (or should be) instruments of democracy. But there are major cracks in that foundation with Hungary being a democracy in name only, and Poland and of course the US rapidly backsliding away from democracy. Russia has been extremely successful poisoning norms of democracy from within. Over the last 20 years, Russia (and fairly recently China) have been winning the war to weaken and supplant democracy all across the globe. An unequivocal victory of a smaller democratic nation over Russia, and subsequent weakening or outright fracturing of the Russian regime is an opportunity to reverse that trend globally.
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Jun 3, 2022 18:29
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Chalks posted:Yeah, the US is able to spend an extremely long time pouring resources into wars even when there are US troops dying in them. A war where no US citizens die? Just one massive excuse to pour even more money into making military equipment? What are they even going to get tired of?
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Jun 3, 2022 18:34
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DancingMachine posted:The West and the forces of democracy can easily outlast Russia if they have the will to do so. But Putin is 100% right about Western leaders being vulnerable to election cycles. Elections are also historically vulnerable to visibly winning wars in the media.
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Jun 3, 2022 18:40
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the popes toes posted:Are you implying the US aid is entirely self-serving and driven by commercial interests alone? If so, should the US stop aiding Ukraine militarily?
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Jun 3, 2022 18:42
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https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1532664734931202049?s=20&t=_ZW8Oy_miNw6fOaK1Km8GA
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Jun 3, 2022 18:46
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the popes toes posted:Are you implying the US aid is entirely self-serving and driven by commercial interests alone? If so, should the US stop aiding Ukraine militarily? Not commercial interests alone, but if you remove all moral or geopolitical considerations from the equation (as Putin thinks a Republican controlled government will do) what you're left with is an excuse to pour money into the MIC without the downside of US troop losses. I don't think anyone's going to get tired of this. Even if I did think their motivation was entirely self serving, I wouldn't advocate they stop doing it. "Stop doing this good thing because your reasons are not selfless" doesn't seem like a rational position to me.
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Jun 3, 2022 19:00
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https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1532769664408895489 My ability to listen to Ukrainian is less than great, but this appears to be some kind of supplies-reinforcements run to aid Foreign Legion while Armed Forces proper are regrouping.
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Jun 3, 2022 19:01
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Baronjutter posted:Putin can absolutely still "win" this if his friends win elections in enough key western countries. He's already go enough pals in power throughout the west to sabotage a ton of aid and sanctions. It's a bit of a long shot for Putin though, and the longer he holds out hope for the long-game the longer he's being bled dry and the more expensive his eventual loss will be. partly but he loving crippled his soft power by doing this. the germans will eventually come around since the US/UAE/etc are stepping in with oil/gas/etc and hungary and turkey can be bribed or in Hungary's case isolated. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Jun 3, 2022 |
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Jun 3, 2022 19:07
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DancingMachine posted:Lately I am increasingly preoccupied with this as not a proxy war between US/Nato and Russia, but as a proxy war between the forces of Democracy and the rule of law and Autocracy. The USA's closest allies over the last 20 years have been Israel and KSA, lmao
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Jun 3, 2022 19:15
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1532769664408895489 I'm a bit lost on the acronyms here. I assume RFERL is Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty but what's the Ukrainian SES?
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Jun 3, 2022 19:33
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A lot of the industrial complex manufacturing is in red states and job security in every single one of them is a huge vote winner It is how the F-35 came to be, despite being the single most expensive project in human history It is almost certain that politicians will be lobbied very very hard to keep the gravy train going, arming a European state that is in a hot war is like a wet dream times a thousand to them
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Jun 3, 2022 19:38
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Fragrag posted:I'm a bit lost on the acronyms here. I assume RFERL is Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty but what's the Ukrainian SES? State Emergency Service. Edit: To those who like me wonder why journalists were going to S-D: https://twitter.com/hromadske/status/1532791729211981824 Reuters were hitchhiking with… Russian forces? https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1532796819071279106 Other side of the RFERL video, with S-D Foreign Legion fighters interview from 1:00 or so. https://twitter.com/kharkiv_warnews/status/1532738875441008640 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 20:08 on Jun 3, 2022 |
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Jun 3, 2022 19:38
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notwithoutmyanus posted:There's a definite concern Russia can push enough influence to control the election cycle this year and control us congress. It's an unfortunate possibility that if house and Senate go Republican (which is statistically probable for midterms) they will push to lift all sanctions Russia doesn't actually control the American Republican Party. There are a few specific politicians who are effectively aligned with Russia.
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Jun 3, 2022 20:16
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Chalks posted:Not commercial interests alone, but if you remove all moral or geopolitical considerations from the equation (as Putin thinks a Republican controlled government will do) what you're left with is an excuse to pour money into the MIC without the downside of US troop losses. I don't think anyone's going to get tired of this. I hate to tell people this but everything a nation has ever done is self-serving. That doesn't automatically make it wrong.
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Jun 3, 2022 20:17
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:I hate to tell people this but everything a nation has ever done is self-serving. That doesn't automatically make it wrong. I don't know, at least democratic countries are capable of doing things for no reason beyond responding to a public outcry at injustice. On a mechanical level it's a politician doing things in order to win votes, but as a nation, it's being done for moral reasons. I doubt the morality of the war in Ukraine has all that much impact compared to other considerations though.
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Jun 3, 2022 20:38
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Seriously, the US MIC is probably the single most effective lobbying industry in the US, and they've made very sure to spread their jobs around key congressional districts. The Russia war is a huge money spinner for them, since every weapon given to Ukraine is going to have to be replaced, and the Europeans might start to take defense seriously which would mean more orders for weapons there too. Plus every US strategic thinker (other than rotten corpses like Kissinger) sees that the chance to just spend money to blow up Russians with zero risk to American lives is an incredible deal. Also, Europe is building LNG import terminals to diversify their gas supply, and one of the places that will come from is the US, which is building LNG export terminals for fracking gas. That's another powerful constituency which will want things to continue.
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Jun 3, 2022 21:33
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https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1532790261176324098
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Jun 3, 2022 21:52
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Counteroffensive taking place it seems https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1532823509746982912?s=20&t=eyQGeKktLQfKLXjc8AbE-A There's a lot more chatter on Twitter but nothing I feel comfortable as a source. I also got some pictures from the front today from a friend that's been fighting for awhile there. His crew seems in good spirits, at least. He also looks less gaunt than around Pasca.
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Jun 3, 2022 21:58
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The BBC are also reporting the Ukrainian counter-attack in Severodonetsk that's pushed the Russians back to controlling only 50% of the city. Looking good for the idea that the Russians threw everything they had at capturing this but ran out of steam before being able to secure the area.
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Jun 3, 2022 22:00
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If it turns out Ukraine pulled a feigned retreat to draw in Russian infantry and then attacked, I'll be very impressed. It's possible: they've shown remarkably good operational sense throughout the war so far.
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Jun 3, 2022 22:13
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Ynglaur posted:If it turns out Ukraine pulled a feigned retreat to draw in Russian infantry and then attacked, I'll be very impressed. Yeah. And Russia being Russia, that will work a few times more before they learn.
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Jun 3, 2022 22:36
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Feels very postmodern if the fake-retreat-to-lure-them-in trick, that's probably as old as organized warfare, now includes going on international news to talk about "ohhhh no we're nearly cut off here it's very unfortunate how we have to withdraw and take alllll our soldiers out".
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Jun 3, 2022 22:37
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Ynglaur posted:If it turns out Ukraine pulled a feigned retreat to draw in Russian infantry and then attacked, I'll be very impressed. It's possible: they've shown remarkably good operational sense throughout the war so far. I'm almost positive of two things 1. Ukraine's military leadership is extraordinarily competent in and of itself, and the military is run in a way which makes them capable of outplaying russia's command on their own with no outside assistance 2. They have outside assistance anyway, probably drinking up a massive feed of constant military intelligence being happily dumped on them by multiple other countries they got good enough at this that even if they didn't complete a transition to having adaptable NCO's throughout their armed services in time for the war, they're still evolved enough to constantly throw russian forces into chaos, because, well, russia's forces need explicit and intact command structure and in any engagement where you disrupt that, it's a complete shitshow for them
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Jun 3, 2022 22:38
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Ynglaur posted:If it turns out Ukraine pulled a feigned retreat to draw in Russian infantry and then attacked, I'll be very impressed. It's possible: they've shown remarkably good operational sense throughout the war so far. I can't help but think the "raze everything to the ground with artillery, then plant a flag on the ruins" tactic kind of backfires here too. Ukraine doesn't really have to hesitate to use heavy weapons and artillery like they would have to when retaking Kherson, as an example.
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Jun 3, 2022 22:43
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ummel posted:I can't help but think the "raze everything to the ground with artillery, then plant a flag on the ruins" tactic kind of backfires here too. Ukraine doesn't really have to hesitate to use heavy weapons and artillery like they would have to when retaking Kherson, as an example. There still are a couple thousand civilians in S-D, according to information as recent as last week.
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Jun 3, 2022 23:09
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cinci zoo sniper posted:There still are a couple thousand civilians in S-D, according to information as recent as last week. Another difference is that Ukraine can hit what they aim at, so they don't have to lob over thousands of dumb unguided rockets.
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Jun 3, 2022 23:21
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https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1532795318005276673 That’s a spicy meatball, if they open palm slam Navalnyi’s big list.
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Jun 3, 2022 23:26
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1532795318005276673 Actions like this are part of why I'm not as worried about potential R undercutting of action against Russia- for much of the party, it remains a base-pleaser.
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