Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo
I mean, it's not wrong to say the economy is swell for the privileged. That just makes me sadder.

Like, I had to get a second job back in the godawful restaurant industry cuz my wife is pregnant with twins. It sucks. It's an amazing and happy time ruined by :911: We're hosed, and we're lucky enough to be able to be barely afloat. We're pretty much resigned to the fact we'll die younger and poorer than our parents and the one recourse is we've got four passports between us so hopefully the kids will be able to live wherever is least bad.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




BiggerBoat posted:

The point is that the growth doesn't help most people and hasn't been for a long time.

Any indications that the metrics are failing to capture the reality, can also be dismissed as “anecdote “. It’s the same reason they missed the effect of globalization on the US and European middle class.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Ghost Leviathan posted:

And if the Democrats keep saying this poo poo and apparently mean it, it raises a lot of questions about who the Democrats are and who they're actually listening to.

The democrats are the party of the top 20%-30% of the United States of America because that is who was doing well.

Edit: one of the conversations I've been watching unfold is how the top 40% of Americans based on income make up over 50% of the current spending consumption. They are doing this by leveraging equity. The fed wants to create demand destruction to try and bring down inflation. Things are going to get worse.

Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 18:06 on Jun 5, 2022

Gatts
Jan 2, 2001

Goodnight Moon

Nap Ghost
There is no hope for America except maybe supreme dictator Bernie Sanders as a starting point and glorious Revolution

Seph
Jul 12, 2004

Please look at this photo every time you support or defend war crimes. Thank you.

BiggerBoat posted:

It's not just my personal experience. It includes everyone I know, from my coworkers up to my bosses. People are pissed and sad and the mood and perception are absolutely palpable. Even the people I know who HAVE money don't have any loving money, home owners or otherwise. I suppose it's a "who am I gonna believe, the stats or my lying eyes?" sort of thing and even if I'm being anecdotal, it's a rather large personal sample size.

Good for the home owners I guess? Now that that gate is closing for that option, that's a real relief for over half the country who can't even muster up a down payment.

I'm not denying your experiences or those around you. I'm just saying that there are a lot of people in this country who are in a vastly different economic situation than you. As a counter to your example, I live in a rich, coastal city that votes ~80% Democratic every election. Every single person I know is doing very well and is exceptionally better off than they were a few years ago, even accounting for the current inflationary environment. But that doesn't mean that my experience is applicable to everyone in this country.

My broader point is that the Democratic party and its donors are largely comprised of coastal elites who are doing well over all, despite the inflationary impacts that everyone in this thread is talking about. The messaging that the economy is good is targeted towards those people, not the people at the bottom of the economic ladder.

Edit: I guess what I'm trying to get at is that it's not just uber rich 1%ers who have benefitted from this economy (though they certainly have benefitted the most), there is a sizable tranche of people in the top 40-50% who are either better off or have been minimally impacted.

Seph fucked around with this message at 18:51 on Jun 5, 2022

Koos Group
Mar 6, 2013

TheIncredulousHulk posted:

Nothing matters more than Ukraine

The very serious policymakers are kicking millions of kids off expanded free school lunch while spending 5x the cost of feeding them on running guns

The war is their top priority

Could you expand on this? Have policymakers been saying that the issue with making the expanded lunches into law is cost, or which particular ones have voted/spoken against it while supporting arms for Ukraine?

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Koos Group posted:

Could you expand on this? Have policymakers been saying that the issue with making the expanded lunches into law is cost, or which particular ones have voted/spoken against it while supporting arms for Ukraine?

As of a few months now I'll be father to some half-russian/half-US twins and I'm also real keen on hearing about how it's actually Ukraine responsible for bad things, it would take a lot of load off ya know

Please gently caress off if your response involves infinite azov nazi hordes thanks

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Srice
Sep 11, 2011

If nothing else it's a fact that additional pandemic aid and additional Ukraine aid were gonna be bundled together until McConnell asked for them to be split. And, well, we sure have seen how splitting bills has gone for the Biden administration.

whiskey patrol
Feb 26, 2003

Seph posted:

I'm not denying your experiences or those around you. I'm just saying that there are a lot of people in this country who are in a vastly different economic situation than you. As a counter to your example, I live in a rich, coastal city that votes ~80% Democratic every election. Every single person I know is doing very well and is exceptionally better off than they were a few years ago, even accounting for the current inflationary environment. But that doesn't mean that my experience is applicable to everyone in this country.

My broader point is that the Democratic party and its donors are largely comprised of coastal elites who are doing well over all, despite the inflationary impacts that everyone in this thread is talking about. The messaging that the economy is good is targeted towards those people, not the people at the bottom of the economic ladder.

This isn't actually true though. Biden lost voters in households with incomes over $100k and won in households making less than $100k. (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html)

The actual voters Democrats need to show up are the ones hurting. Insanely out of touch.

Seph
Jul 12, 2004

Please look at this photo every time you support or defend war crimes. Thank you.

whiskey patrol posted:

This isn't actually true though. Biden lost voters in households with incomes over $100k and won in households making less than $100k. (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html)

The actual voters Democrats need to show up are the ones hurting. Insanely out of touch.

I probably worded my post poorly, I wasn't intending to say that the democrats are majority high income, just that it's a large and growing part of the party. I agree it's out of touch, I was never defending the messaging itself, just describing who it was targeted towards.

Cranappleberry
Jan 27, 2009

Seph posted:

The national rate of homeownership is over 60%. Most of those people have mortgages that were locked in years ago. For those people, the increase in housing prices has increased their net worth, not hurt it.

Just to be clear, I'm not denying that the economy is total poo poo for millions of people. But I don't think it's worthwhile to act like the economy is a dumpster fire for everyone when the reality is that a significant chunk of the population is doing very well, and many of those people are also Democratic voters.

dude, whether it's because of their lifestyle (they overspent and have no savings) or they're just unlucky, people hit with a significant emergency are not fine, even if they "own" a house (the bank owns it until they pay off their mortgage). They can plan for an emergency but often don't.

you might say that is their fault but as far as medical stuff is concerned, no. The system we have, even with the improvements with the PPACA, is horrendous.

Also they might be able to sell their house but good luck buying or building a new one. They can also borrow against their equity but that is sending them into more debt.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Some fresh new economic polling from Ipsos:

quote:

As the midterm election approaches, most Americans say that the economy, inflation and rising gas prices are the most important issues in determining how they will vote for Congress this November, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.

With inflation on the rise since last fall, Americans have been significantly affected by the rising cost of goods and services. And, more than eight in 10 Americans (83%) now say that the economy is either an extremely or very important issue in determining how they will vote, in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos' KnowledgePanel.

In the poll, 80% of Americans say that inflation is also an extremely or very important factor in how they will vote and for gas prices, it is 74%.

Joe Biden's approval ratings for his handling of these key issues are all well underwater, suggesting trouble for the president and Democratic candidates ahead of the midterm. Only 37% approve of Biden’s handling of the economic recovery, and even fewer approve of his handling of inflation (28%) and gas prices (27%).

I doubt we've seen numbers like those since Jimmy Carter was president. Moving on:

quote:

Biden's highest approval rating is for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic (56%), which is now among the least important issues to Americans, according to the ABC News/Ipsos poll.

In an April ABC News/Ipsos poll, there was a 20-point gap between Republicans and Democrats in enthusiasm to vote this November, with 55% percent of Republicans saying they were very enthusiastic about voting compared to 35% of Democrats. That gap has narrowed somewhat in this poll, but Republicans still enjoy a significant advantage with 57% saying they are enthusiastic about voting compared to 44% of Democrats.

BiggerBoat
Sep 26, 2007

Don't you tell me my business again.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Any indications that the metrics are failing to capture the reality, can also be dismissed as “anecdote “. It’s the same reason they missed the effect of globalization on the US and European middle class.

That's fine. Call it anecdotal then. I've admitted as much and am OK with that.

But I think my larger point about traditional metrics meaning less and less to most people still holds weight. "Coastal Elites" making a killing right now doesn't do much for me or yank my chain but it probably does go a long way towards explaining why the current iteration of the Democratic Party seems more optimistic about things than I do. Which I assume was the point (and I know you didn't post that part).

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

If anything, I think Democrats branding themselves as the party of upper-class elites will further destroy them--and their tone-deaf messaging seems to be doing just that.

Cranappleberry
Jan 27, 2009

BiggerBoat posted:

It's not just my personal experience. It includes everyone I know, from my coworkers up to my bosses. People are pissed and sad and the mood and perception are absolutely palpable. Even the people I know who HAVE money don't have any loving money, home owners or otherwise. I suppose it's a "who am I gonna believe, the stats or my lying eyes?" sort of thing and even if I'm being anecdotal, it's a rather large personal sample size.

Good for the home owners I guess? Now that that gate is closing for that option, that's a real relief for over half the country who can't even muster up a down payment.

the following is an argument that is not based on what I've seen in the stats (which themselves point to the economy being real bad and getting worse)- It's based on a feeling.

There is a sometimes palpable air. People are rushed, they're talking in the store about the prices (especially certain stores, which have gone crazy with the gouging). They're disgruntled and even depressed.

On top of that, many discussions that normally wouldn't occur about the economy, prices, the companies that are gouging, what is causing the issues, the president and congress.

Willa Rogers posted:


I doubt we've seen numbers like those since Jimmy Carter was president. Moving on:

Mr Hootington posted the stuff about how The Fed is making noise about purposefully putting the load on the working and middle class in order to deal with the problem. I forgot the term for it but it does seem to be the plan.

Cranappleberry fucked around with this message at 19:29 on Jun 5, 2022

whiskey patrol
Feb 26, 2003

Seph posted:

I probably worded my post poorly, I wasn't intending to say that the democrats are majority high income, just that it's a large and growing part of the party. I agree it's out of touch, I was never defending the messaging itself, just describing who it was targeted towards.

Sorry for misreading - that makes more sense. It's baffling on one hand that they think this is the message to go with but it
goes with the increased focus on (primarily white) suburbanites which seems to be who the party cares about wooing.

Mendrian
Jan 6, 2013

It's simple math.

If most jobs are low or minimum wage (is this in dispute?)

And

Most wages have increased by less than 20%

And

The price of rent and goods has increased faster than the rate at which people's wages have increased

Then

People are doing worse.

When people start throwing graphs at me that everything is fine actually it ignores a lot of the realities of what people are living with. I invite any of you living in a coastal dem stronghold to ask people in your communities who are at risk - service workers, mostly - how they are living in the current climate because I think you need some perspective on the wage versus cost of living situation if you believe those graphs for a second.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Cranappleberry posted:

Mr Hootington posted the stuff about how The Fed is making noise about purposefully putting the load on the working and middle class in order to deal with the problem. I forgot the term for it but it does seem to be the plan.

“Demand destruction”, inducing people to reduce spending

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

whiskey patrol posted:

Sorry for misreading - that makes more sense. It's baffling on one hand that they think this is the message to go with but it
goes with the increased focus on (primarily white) suburbanites which seems to be who the party cares about wooing.

money answers the question, tbh

you know those insufferable emails that sound like *LOCAL DEM POLITICIAN GOES HERE* wrote a baby-come-back letter? those are statistically tested to within an inch of their lives. there is an entire part of machine learning dedicated to finding EXACTLY the messaging that gets the most donations out of recipients. shameless fundraisers have tried just about every angle there is, and the ones you are getting now have been shown via empirical testing to get the most money out of the kind of people who donate money to democrats. the Hillary Clinton campaign had many, many, many faults, but their analysts were top notch. and everything she was doing was based on that what it did to that immediate, concrete response value. because, after all, the messaging that raises the most money must also be the messaging that is most effective in winning votes, right?

if your job is what you spend your time doing, american politicians are fundraisers who we ask to occasionally do some legislating on the side. and in their capacity as fundraisers, if you aren't the kind of person who can be guilt tripped into maxing out every campaign cycle, you functionally do not exist. as a result, democratic messaging is laser-targeted at the kind of person who not only opens an email from 'Nancy Pelosi' with the subject line "Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!, I'm devastated", but reads the whole goddamned thing and opens their wallet in response.

party's voter base may not be neurotic affluent suburbanites, but its donor base sure as gently caress is, and there is one of those two groups politicians pretend to give a poo poo about.

ellasmith
Sep 29, 2021

by Azathoth
imo the worst thing about the current economy is even having money is no guarantee you can get the things you need - theres a drat good chance it just won’t be available, especially if it’s an essential thing that most people require. early covid when trump was around I had hope it was just temporary, and now it seems more like a basic fact of american life. to say the economy is doing well when that’s an issue seems like a huge misstep.

selec
Sep 6, 2003

ellasmith posted:

imo the worst thing about the current economy is even having money is no guarantee you can get the things you need - theres a drat good chance it just won’t be available, especially if it’s an essential thing that most people require. early covid when trump was around I had hope it was just temporary, and now it seems more like a basic fact of american life. to say the economy is doing well when that’s an issue seems like a huge misstep.

The vibes are hosed and even rich people can sense it.

They may have everything they want or need, but are they serene and confident? Do they feel safe in the future their children will inhabit? Do they spend more on security and predictability?

Like I am very, very well-paid, and in that way I’m an outlier from my childhood friend group (who I’m still very tight with) but Jesus things are bleak out there, in a spiritual/vibes sense. It is a dark horizon everybody seems to sense.

The constant erosion of a sense of any kind of desirable future just wears on people.

What do you look forward to? What good thing do you think the future holds?

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

It's not only shortages that seemed temporary at the beginning of covid & have outlasted the worst of the pandemic; it's also price gouging when products & services are available.

And it doesn't appear that the state & federal services have been fully restored, either. Everything from DMV lines to Social Security offices to state unemployment systems seem to be operating in some amorphous middle ground between pre-covid days & the worst of the shutdowns.

Drug overdoses are up, teen suicides are up, and murders are up. People are losing their minds, and being told that It's a Good Life, Really will only make them angrier.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Mendrian posted:

It's simple math.

If most jobs are low or minimum wage (is this in dispute?)

And

Most wages have increased by less than 20%

And

The price of rent and goods has increased faster than the rate at which people's wages have increased

Then

People are doing worse.

When people start throwing graphs at me that everything is fine actually it ignores a lot of the realities of what people are living with. I invite any of you living in a coastal dem stronghold to ask people in your communities who are at risk - service workers, mostly - how they are living in the current climate because I think you need some perspective on the wage versus cost of living situation if you believe those graphs for a second.

I'm just gonna stop you right there at the bolded part, because rather than asking whether it's "in dispute" or not, it's clearly and verifiably wrong. The median hourly wage is more than double the current federal minimum wage. And of course, "median" means that half of workers are being paid more than that. In fact, according to BLS data, the median hourly wage across all occupations in May 2021 was 22 dollars an hour - over triple the minimum wage! "Most" and "low" are inherently vague statements, but lumping "low wage" in with "minimum wage" suggests you weren't imagining quite so wide a spread.

IMO, if people are going to insist that economic statistics and metrics covering over 300 million people are misleading or flat-out wrong, they should have a better basis for that than anecdotal experience and gut instinct. Otherwise, it has a tendency to lead to significant departures from reality.

Especially since the US economy is extremely divided by region, industry, demographic, and educational attainment. Someone living in Detroit is going to have a completely different perception of the economy compared to someone living in the middle of LA, but that doesn't mean that either of their experiences don't count - it just means that the economy of this vast and highly-populated country is extremely diverse, and there's usually far too much nuance to boil down to a sharp one-sentence remark one way or the other.

And contrary to popular belief, the data to look into these sorts of things actually exists. You might have to put slightly more effort into it than looking at a politician's campaign-season tweets to see the nuance, but I promise you it's there. There is at least one entire government agency dedicated solely to gathering statistics about labor and the economy nationwide, I swear to you that they have more detailed data than "welp, looks like the unemployment rate is low, the economy's doing fantastic!". There's a persistent myth that economic data is simply not capturing the true economic situation, but to me it appears to be nothing more than a myth.

Willa Rogers posted:

Yes, we've discussed the bird flu & the poultry shortage, but the food inflation goes waaay beyond eggs & chicken, unless Srice was talking about the price of chicken milk.

It's pretty striking to see responses that say " :actually: most Democrats are fairly well off" or " :actually: poultry prices are increasing bc of bird flu," since in a nutshell that's what started off the convo: the Biden administration's fervent belief that things are :actually: great right now; why, just look at the job growth and tell me people can't afford housing or food or heating fuel--and if you can't afford those things the odds are in favor that you're a blue-collar chud.

It's just the messaging that's the problem, and if we hire a PR pro like Anita Dunn we'll finally be able to convince voters that either their eyes are lying to them about their material conditions or they can shrug it off as well-deserved.

?????

Somebody posted that milk prices had doubled while egg prices had more than tripled, I responded with some info about some factors specifically affecting egg prices (with the intention of illustrating why egg prices had risen so much more than milk prices), and you're accusing me of peddling false messaging to defend the Biden administration by pretending inflation doesn't exist and that the economy is actually great?

Can we please step back a little bit in this conversation and accept the existence of nuance? And maybe also accept that we can discuss factual information without accusing each other of running defense for politicians because someone mentioned a fact that doesn't fit the narrative?

It can be true that inflation is happening, while at the same time also being true that certain specific things are facing certain specific factors that drive up the prices of those specific things. Acknowledging the existence of the latter doesn't mean denying the former.

It can be true that the unemployment rate is low and that wage growth is high, while also being true that inflation is pretty bad right now. These things are all true at the same time. Acknowledging the truth of one isn't actually an elaborate conspiracy to deny the others.

It can be true that a lot of people were faring well in the economy a year ago, while also being true that a lot of other people were faring badly in the economy a year ago. Moreover, people can say this and NOT be political agents desperately trying to reframe messaging to unjustifiably defend a politician you dislike.

Cranappleberry
Jan 27, 2009

haveblue posted:

“Demand destruction”, inducing people to reduce spending

that may be another term but what I was looking for was guy's name. It was named after his plan.

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

Seph posted:

I'm not denying your experiences or those around you. I'm just saying that there are a lot of people in this country who are in a vastly different economic situation than you. As a counter to your example, I live in a rich, coastal city that votes ~80% Democratic every election. Every single person I know is doing very well and is exceptionally better off than they were a few years ago, even accounting for the current inflationary environment. But that doesn't mean that my experience is applicable to everyone in this country.

My broader point is that the Democratic party and its donors are largely comprised of coastal elites who are doing well over all, despite the inflationary impacts that everyone in this thread is talking about. The messaging that the economy is good is targeted towards those people, not the people at the bottom of the economic ladder.

Edit: I guess what I'm trying to get at is that it's not just uber rich 1%ers who have benefitted from this economy (though they certainly have benefitted the most), there is a sizable tranche of people in the top 40-50% who are either better off or have been minimally impacted.

It's more like 20% of people in the labor aristocracy, everyone else is at best treading water if not worse. It's cool that you and your friends are doing great but idk maybe try talking to people living in your coastal elite city who don't have a degree?

theCalamity
Oct 23, 2010

Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War

Cranappleberry posted:

that may be another term but what I was looking for was guy's name. It was named after his plan.

Volcker shock. They cause a recession in order to destroy demand.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Main Paineframe posted:

I'm just gonna stop you right there at the bolded part, because rather than asking whether it's "in dispute" or not, it's clearly and verifiably wrong. The median hourly wage is more than double the current federal minimum wage. And of course, "median" means that half of workers are being paid more than that. In fact, according to BLS data, the median hourly wage across all occupations in May 2021 was 22 dollars an hour - over triple the minimum wage! "Most" and "low" are inherently vague statements, but lumping "low wage" in with "minimum wage" suggests you weren't imagining quite so wide a spread.
You are technically correct, the best kind of correct for the Democrats. But here's the thing: 22/hr is a low wage now. People making that nowadays often cannot afford necessities like quality food, healthcare, childcare, etc. Supposedly middle-class wages are becoming poverty wages.

quote:

And contrary to popular belief, the data to look into these sorts of things actually exists. You might have to put slightly more effort into it than looking at a politician's campaign-season tweets to see the nuance, but I promise you it's there. There is at least one entire government agency dedicated solely to gathering statistics about labor and the economy nationwide, I swear to you that they have more detailed data than "welp, looks like the unemployment rate is low, the economy's doing fantastic!". There's a persistent myth that economic data is simply not capturing the true economic situation, but to me it appears to be nothing more than a myth.
Yes, and those agencies put out heavily flawed metrics that perpetuate the status quo and pretend everything is rosy. Read up on how inflation is calculated.

quote:

Somebody posted that milk prices had doubled while egg prices had more than tripled, I responded with some info about some factors specifically affecting egg prices (with the intention of illustrating why egg prices had risen so much more than milk prices), and you're accusing me of peddling false messaging to defend the Biden administration by pretending inflation doesn't exist and that the economy is actually great?

Can we please step back a little bit in this conversation and accept the existence of nuance? And maybe also accept that we can discuss factual information without accusing each other of running defense for politicians because someone mentioned a fact that doesn't fit the narrative?

It can be true that inflation is happening, while at the same time also being true that certain specific things are facing certain specific factors that drive up the prices of those specific things. Acknowledging the existence of the latter doesn't mean denying the former.

It can be true that the unemployment rate is low and that wage growth is high, while also being true that inflation is pretty bad right now. These things are all true at the same time. Acknowledging the truth of one isn't actually an elaborate conspiracy to deny the others.

It can be true that a lot of people were faring well in the economy a year ago, while also being true that a lot of other people were faring badly in the economy a year ago. Moreover, people can say this and NOT be political agents desperately trying to reframe messaging to unjustifiably defend a politician you dislike.
The point is no one cares about this or that BLS statistic or whether they can't afford dinner because of bird flu or whatever. You're again missing the forest for the trees here, and the entire point of what people are saying. People are hurting. Things cost more. Real wages are less. There are shortages in all kinds of things. No one is accusing you of bad faith, and I'm certainly not, but pretending that things are good or even kind of OK flies in the face of reality and will lead to the inevitable devastating loss in November.

You don't need nuance in saying that things suck right now and they are getting worse, fast.

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Jun 5, 2022

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Main Paineframe posted:

Somebody posted that milk prices had doubled while egg prices had more than tripled, I responded with some info about some factors specifically affecting egg prices (with the intention of illustrating why egg prices had risen so much more than milk prices), and you're accusing me of peddling false messaging to defend the Biden administration by pretending inflation doesn't exist and that the economy is actually great?

I did no such thing. Rather, I pointed out how tonedeaf the messaging is when so many people are struggling, whether the messaging is coming from the administration or by people in this thread choosing to selectively nitpick stats instead of looking at the big picture as relayed by voter sentiment via polling and acknowledging that poo poo is hosed up and bullshit.

quote:

It can be true that inflation is happening, while at the same time also being true that certain specific things are facing certain specific factors that drive up the prices of those specific things. Acknowledging the existence of the latter doesn't mean denying the former.

It can be true that the unemployment rate is low and that wage growth is high, while also being true that inflation is pretty bad right now. These things are all true at the same time. Acknowledging the truth of one isn't actually an elaborate conspiracy to deny the others.

No one has said or is saying that it's "an elaborate conspiracy" or even a conspiracy at all.

We're saying that, given the current situation and given voter sentiment as reflected in polling, it seems ludicrous to continue focus on single statistics or situations when there's widespread fear, desperation & panic among huge swaths of Americans.

Your attempts to distort those messages appear to obfuscate the depth of voter discontent. You want "nuance"? Then confine yourself to only engaging with the one out of every five voters who think economic issues are going swimmingly under Biden.

BiggerBoat
Sep 26, 2007

Don't you tell me my business again.

selec posted:

The vibes are hosed and even rich people can sense it.

They may have everything they want or need, but are they serene and confident? Do they feel safe in the future their children will inhabit? Do they spend more on security and predictability?

Like I am very, very well-paid, and in that way I’m an outlier from my childhood friend group (who I’m still very tight with) but Jesus things are bleak out there, in a spiritual/vibes sense. It is a dark horizon everybody seems to sense.

The constant erosion of a sense of any kind of desirable future just wears on people.

What do you look forward to? What good thing do you think the future holds?

Business owners are sue as poo poo noticing it. Not being able to order paper, toner cartridges, printable vinyl and poo poo like that is a real thing in my industry.

And I think the median income being $22/HR or three times the minimum wage speaks more to how abominably low the minimum wage is than how much rear end you can kick and purchasing power you have making 22 bux per.

BiggerBoat fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Jun 5, 2022

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

cat botherer posted:

You are technically correct, the best kind of correct for the Democrats. But here's the thing: 22/hr is a low wage now. People making that nowadays often cannot afford necessities like quality food, healthcare, childcare, etc. Supposedly middle-class wages are becoming poverty wages.

Yep; in concrete terms:

* $22/hour is around $44,000/year.

* Average rental pricing for one-bedroom housing across the country is now $1650.

* Income requirements for that average are roughly $60,000/year, going by the standard 3x cost of rent.

Another example: Obama, Biden & other Dems have bragged that under the ACA, no more than 8.5 percent of your income will go toward the cost of health-insurance premiums, but:

* That's based on pre-tax income.

* It doesn't include any of the out-of-pocket costs beyond premiums that have risen stratospherically over the last decade, including massive deductibles & full-freight costs for out-of-network care.

* Meanwhile, eligibility for Medicaid in expansion states has remained at a woefully low $19k/year or so income ceiling.

papa horny michael
Aug 18, 2009

by Pragmatica
Oxfam claims that a third of the US workforce makes under $15.00 an hour. 90% of that group are over the age of 20.

https://www.oxfamamerica.org/explore/research-publications/the-crisis-of-low-wages-in-the-us/

Twincityhacker
Feb 18, 2011

Willa Rogers posted:

* Average rental pricing for one-bedroom housing across the country is now $1650.

OOF. And cosidering how averages work there is a gently caress ton of housing above that. =/

TheIncredulousHulk
Sep 3, 2012

Koos Group posted:

Could you expand on this? Have policymakers been saying that the issue with making the expanded lunches into law is cost, or which particular ones have voted/spoken against it while supporting arms for Ukraine?

I mean there's no smoking gun and it requires the observer to make some inferences, but renewing expanded school lunches never came up for a vote, and was reported as being left out of the omnibus spending bill by the administration at the behest of Mitch McConnell. There was an attempt to fund it via an additional covid relief bill in May that was being tied to a massive amount of war money with overwhelming Republican support, but rather than use the war money as leverage to pass the extension with it, they passed the war money bill as a standalone. To me this very strongly suggests that running guns to Ukraine is a higher legislative and executive priority than feeding poor kids living in the US

I bring up cost in the post because cost is frequently cited as the limiting factor for social programs by both parties despite federal dollars being essentially fake and limitless, with the Biden administration in particular touting federal deficit reduction as an achievement this year, which is just a fancy way of bragging about spending less on social programs. I don't personally think that's really what drives opposition to programs like expanded school lunch--I think it's a combination of not wanting to reify beneficial universal social programs that challenge neoliberal ideology's conception of the role of government, as well as wanting to exert downward pressure on wage labor by holding children's nutrition hostage, plus probably a sprinkling of just being evil pieces of poo poo who get off on poor people suffering. I'm trying to at least acknowledge the self-imposed limitations habitually cited by the political class here though rather than just dismissing them out of hand

That said, the broad point of my post was to somewhat agree with DV in that Garland is actually working on government priorities. I agree even more with the posters who don't consider prioritizing gun running for the war to be more useful than improving our collective domestic situation, but Garland and the DoJ can certainly be described as directing their time, energy, and resources to the things that they think matter, rather than sitting around watching The Office on a loop or whatever

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




BiggerBoat posted:

That's fine. Call it anecdotal then. I've admitted as much and am OK with that.

TO be more clear, I’m agreeing with you.

After being told that the economy is fine and good this morning here I went to the grocery store. I overheard a father and what looked like a grandpa telling a young side of teenage boy: No you can have that sandwich from the deli it costs six dollars and only feeds one person.

Now that is an anecdote. But it’s also an observation. I remember being told that my observations about what was going on with international shipping way back in 2016 were only anecdotes by some of the same posters. There seems to be this attitude of we can only trust the metrics and to ignore what we see in life. But it’s those observations that turn into testable hypothesis. My understanding is that that type of work have already been done too. That there are alternative metrics that could be used that pick up some of this stuff that many of us are seeing.

Mendrian
Jan 6, 2013

Main Paineframe posted:

I'm just gonna stop you right there at the bolded part, because rather than asking whether it's "in dispute" or not, it's clearly and verifiably wrong. The median hourly wage is more than double the current federal minimum wage. And of course, "median" means that half of workers are being paid more than that. In fact, according to BLS data, the median hourly wage across all occupations in May 2021 was 22 dollars an hour - over triple the minimum wage! "Most" and "low" are inherently vague statements, but lumping "low wage" in with "minimum wage" suggests you weren't imagining quite so wide a spread.

IMO, if people are going to insist that economic statistics and metrics covering over 300 million people are misleading or flat-out wrong, they should have a better basis for that than anecdotal experience and gut instinct. Otherwise, it has a tendency to lead to significant departures from reality.

Especially since the US economy is extremely divided by region, industry, demographic, and educational attainment. Someone living in Detroit is going to have a completely different perception of the economy compared to someone living in the middle of LA, but that doesn't mean that either of their experiences don't count - it just means that the economy of this vast and highly-populated country is extremely diverse, and there's usually far too much nuance to boil down to a sharp one-sentence remark one way or the other.

And contrary to popular belief, the data to look into these sorts of things actually exists. You might have to put slightly more effort into it than looking at a politician's campaign-season tweets to see the nuance, but I promise you it's there. There is at least one entire government agency dedicated solely to gathering statistics about labor and the economy nationwide, I swear to you that they have more detailed data than "welp, looks like the unemployment rate is low, the economy's doing fantastic!". There's a persistent myth that economic data is simply not capturing the true economic situation, but to me it appears to be nothing more than a myth.

?????

Somebody posted that milk prices had doubled while egg prices had more than tripled, I responded with some info about some factors specifically affecting egg prices (with the intention of illustrating why egg prices had risen so much more than milk prices), and you're accusing me of peddling false messaging to defend the Biden administration by pretending inflation doesn't exist and that the economy is actually great?

Can we please step back a little bit in this conversation and accept the existence of nuance? And maybe also accept that we can discuss factual information without accusing each other of running defense for politicians because someone mentioned a fact that doesn't fit the narrative?

It can be true that inflation is happening, while at the same time also being true that certain specific things are facing certain specific factors that drive up the prices of those specific things. Acknowledging the existence of the latter doesn't mean denying the former.

It can be true that the unemployment rate is low and that wage growth is high, while also being true that inflation is pretty bad right now. These things are all true at the same time. Acknowledging the truth of one isn't actually an elaborate conspiracy to deny the others.

It can be true that a lot of people were faring well in the economy a year ago, while also being true that a lot of other people were faring badly in the economy a year ago. Moreover, people can say this and NOT be political agents desperately trying to reframe messaging to unjustifiably defend a politician you dislike.

I am not accusing you of bad faith posting either but I think in your attempt to defend nuance and make sure everyone is posting clearly on the facts you are missing some very important things.

Look at how many people are making 22 an hour; look at how many people are making 15 an hour; look at rental prices and the rising cost of basic goods.

"Half or more are doing fine" is actually irrelevant to my point. "Some people are doing better and some people are doing worse" is true. So? What would you recommend I do with that information? A lot of people are doing worse, and they are doing worse in Democratic strongholds.

I challenge you to ask someone who makes minimum or closen to minimum- local, not federal - in a major city what finding an apartment feels like. I want you to imagine what life is like for that person. And I want you to extrapolate that experience across a huge segment of the population.

That's the problem. "On the whole, America is doing great" is such a stupid waffle and the dems love it. I would think the pandemic would have taught us just how many people even a single percentage of the population is.

I make 22 in a major city and I am very much in poverty.

Koos Group
Mar 6, 2013

Willa Rogers posted:

There's hope on the horizon, with Harvey Weinstein advisor & PR pro Anita Dunn rumored to be taking over from Ron Klain as chief of staff sometime soon.

Since messaging seems to be such an overarching concern to the administration, and since the White House has been doing such a lousy job at it, surely an ace at it like Dunn will be able to turn things around.

MODS: Let me know if I need to provide sources for these rumors & I'll edit them in. :wink:

You do, yes.

CmdrRiker
Apr 8, 2016

You dismally untalented little creep!

Main Paineframe posted:

I'm just gonna stop you right there at the bolded part, because rather than asking whether it's "in dispute" or not, it's clearly and verifiably wrong. The median hourly wage is more than double the current federal minimum wage. And of course, "median" means that half of workers are being paid more than that. In fact, according to BLS data, the median hourly wage across all occupations in May 2021 was 22 dollars an hour - over triple the minimum wage! "Most" and "low" are inherently vague statements, but lumping "low wage" in with "minimum wage" suggests you weren't imagining quite so wide a spread.

Saying "median means half of the workers are being paid more" is a really hosed up and invalidating line of reasoning so I'm just going to assume you mean the graph is positively skewed because the mean happens to be greater than the median.

BetterToRuleInHell
Jul 2, 2007

Touch my mask top
Get the chop chop
[removed because it was a trash comparison]

BetterToRuleInHell fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Jun 5, 2022

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
That is an insane comparison to make, fyi

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

BetterToRuleInHell
Jul 2, 2007

Touch my mask top
Get the chop chop
Yeah, im trying to get the right word out but I'm drawing a blank.

It's not a accusation against Paineframe, or a dismissal. Its one of those things where you lose the crowd because all I have to do is point to a gas pump.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply