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Gumball Gumption posted:We really lost the plot on the original discussion about why children are open season in America if we think the shiftless left who can't organize and only love in-fighting, drama, and hot chip are somehow responsible for it. It's real "all my enemies are weak feckless idiots and also control my life" poo poo. Either the left are so useless they can't organize a trip to the grocery store or they're responsible for failing to save kids, you can't have both. Literally no one has argued this
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 15:26 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 08:59 |
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So far, the Democrats' success in allowing the CDC to study gun violence has mostly just been to make even more depressing discoveries. Preliminary data shows that the huge rise in shootings and murders in 2020 and 2021 is continuing through 2022 and isn't just in cities. Rural murders and shootings are also up almost as much as urban murders and shootings in the past year. Basically, everything we thought we knew about crime has imploded in the last two years. - The rural/urban divide has a minimal impact on crime rates. - Crime went up the same amount regardless of "tough on crime" or "progressive" criminal justice policies. - Violent crime went up, but property crime went down during tough economic times. - When the economy and personal incomes rose, property crime didn't go down and violent crime rose even further. - Most of the increase in shootings and murders are not from domestic incidents. - More/less police, more/less economic aid, and racial/poverty/geographic demographics all had no significant impact on the rise in murders or shootings. - How strict their Covid-19 protocols were had no significant impact on violent crime. - Most of the increase in shootings and murders are not drug related. The only real common thread was the presence of guns, but the guns primarily escalated the assaults/crimes/disputes into murders and shootings, but didn't necessarily cause them. https://twitter.com/BradWilcoxIFS/status/1535244050663624706 quote:Rural America Reels From Violent Crime. ‘People Lost Their Ever-Lovin’ Minds.’
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 15:54 |
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quote:deputies came upon an SUV with its windows fogged outside the Park & Blow Handi Mart.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 16:05 |
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It's a pretty common refrain to hear about how crime in the US has increased significantly in the last few years. I'm wondering, is that trend (or anything comparable) found anywhere outside the US? If not, and the problem can't be neatly attributed to material issues (as the data posted by LT seems to suggest) then a dependent variable might be extremely difficult to find.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 16:51 |
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:It's a pretty common refrain to hear about how crime in the US has increased significantly in the last few years. I'm wondering, is that trend (or anything comparable) found anywhere outside the US? If not, and the problem can't be neatly attributed to material issues (as the data posted by LT seems to suggest) then a dependent variable might be extremely difficult to find. According to a casual googling of Western European/Australian/New Zealand government sites, violent crime is also up significantly across those countries, but not close to levels in the U.S. Australia had a 16% jump in their homicide rate in a year. The U.K. had a small increase in homicides, but about a 19% increase in overall violent crime. Most of the other western European countries had an increase in violent crime between 14% and 27%. Canada had a 15-year high in murders, but according to Reuters, that is mostly because they had 3 mass shootings in 2020 and 2021. So, it seems like violent crime has gone up a good bit throughout the OECD countries, but violent crime - murders and shootings in particular - are especially blowing up in the U.S. Australia with a 16% increase in homicides seems to be the closest to the U.S., but they are still at about half the increase in homicides in the U.S. Violent crime overall (assaults, etc.) is actually higher in a few places outside of the U.S. But, the U.S. is blowing them away in murders.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 17:02 |
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:It's a pretty common refrain to hear about how crime in the US has increased significantly in the last few years. I'm wondering, is that trend (or anything comparable) found anywhere outside the US? If not, and the problem can't be neatly attributed to material issues (as the data posted by LT seems to suggest) then a dependent variable might be extremely difficult to find. Canada saw a similar violent crime decrease in the 90s as the US and is relatively stable save for a few mass shootings.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 17:04 |
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So far, the only thing that has stayed consistent/in line with what everyone thought they knew about crime is that the homicides are staying in the ~75% male/~25% female gender split. Urban/rural, policing policies, criminal justice policies, gun control laws (although, local gun control laws hardly matter given how easy it is to get guns in the next town or state over), race, geography, change in personal income, length or severity of covid restrictions, and drug use all had small or no correlations with the increase in murders and shootings. So, there isn't really any clear answer why. The obvious theory that people are working with is that the pandemic made everyone crazy for various reasons. But, there isn't really a direct causal thing you can point to and no evidence or data to prove that. Basically, everything we thought we knew about crime doesn't seem to apply now (or from 2009 to 2017 when property crime and violent crime both kept going down during the second largest economic downturn in U.S. history even after following the historic drop in the 90's and early 2000's). Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:24 on Jun 13, 2022 |
# ? Jun 13, 2022 17:21 |
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Bellmaker posted:Ferguson was barely a decade ago, it's never stopped. Civil rights activists mysteriously turning up dead a few years after a protest movement is certainly bad, but I'm comparing it to a time period when Birmingham was derisively known as "Bombingham" due to how common it was for anti-segregationists' homes and organizations to be destroyed in bomb attacks. I'm talking about a time period when the local sheriff would organize armed vigilante mobs to storm buses in broad daylight to beat up the Freedom Riders. I'm talking about a time period when activists had to arrange their own transport to hospitals because ambulances would refuse to take them, a time period when they had to keep track of which hospitals were likely to refuse medical attention to them. KKK gangs would follow civil rights organizers and shoot at their cars, and then the FBI would smear the victims to cover up the fact that their own undercover informants were riding along with the KKK. Local cops would arrest activists and turn them over to lynch mobs. The FBI wiretapped MLK for years, and tried to blackmail him into committing suicide. Activists would be arrested on false charges, blamed for assaults and murders that authorities knew they couldn't possibly have committed, and in some cases sentenced to decades in prison. And all of that was in addition to the kind of stuff that still happens today, like riot police violently suppressing protests with tear gas and violence, police officers murdering people out of the public eye and claiming it was self-defense, and so on.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 17:30 |
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Violent crime has gone up a lot in Seattle, along with property crime (which was already high). What is to be done when the police literally refuse to do their jobs? https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...nal-memo-shows/ Seattle police stopped investigating new adult sexual assaults this year posted:
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 17:37 |
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HonorableTB posted:Violent crime has gone up a lot in Seattle, along with property crime (which was already high). What is to be done when the police literally refuse to do their jobs? take away their money and give it to people and departments that actually help people
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 17:38 |
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:take away their money and give it to people and departments that actually help people According to the CDC data, policing policies and funding have almost no correlation with shootings/homicides. They might for other crimes, but cities with the most police and the toughest on crime policies had almost the exact same rise in murders as cities with the fewest police or the most reformist policing policies. The downside seems to be that reformist/progressive policing policies and defunding the police don't do much to lower violent crime either, but (according to the CDC data at least) you can probably remove a large chunk of the police budget with a very minimal change in violent crime.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 17:41 |
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The January 6th testimony today revealed that Trump and his lawyers were diverting money promised to go to legal funds to challenge election results into his personal accounts, his hotel, and PAC. Approximately $7.2 million in total is confirmed to have been illegally embezzled and up to $233.5 million is unaccounted for. His campaign lawyer had admitted it and is now testifying. lol that someone in the Trump inner circle finally flipped and provided evidence of criminal wrongdoing and conspiracy related to January 6th, but it was wire fraud, bank fraud, campaign finance violations, and embezzlement.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 17:52 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The January 6th testimony today revealed that Trump and his lawyers were diverting money promised to go to legal funds to challenge election results into his personal accounts, his hotel, and PAC. Approximately $7.2 million in total. Lol if they get him on taxes and fundraising
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 17:54 |
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Main Paineframe posted:Civil rights activists mysteriously turning up dead a few years after a protest movement is certainly bad, but I'm comparing it to a time period when Birmingham was derisively known as "Bombingham" due to how common it was for anti-segregationists' homes and organizations to be destroyed in bomb attacks. I'm talking about a time period when the local sheriff would organize armed vigilante mobs to storm buses in broad daylight to beat up the Freedom Riders. I'm talking about a time period when activists had to arrange their own transport to hospitals because ambulances would refuse to take them, a time period when they had to keep track of which hospitals were likely to refuse medical attention to them. KKK gangs would follow civil rights organizers and shoot at their cars, and then the FBI would smear the victims to cover up the fact that their own undercover informants were riding along with the KKK. Local cops would arrest activists and turn them over to lynch mobs. The FBI wiretapped MLK for years, and tried to blackmail him into committing suicide. Activists would be arrested on false charges, blamed for assaults and murders that authorities knew they couldn't possibly have committed, and in some cases sentenced to decades in prison. And all of that was in addition to the kind of stuff that still happens today, like riot police violently suppressing protests with tear gas and violence, police officers murdering people out of the public eye and claiming it was self-defense, and so on. Just shrugging and going "yeah but you're failing because you're not trying hard enough" in the face of murders of people for the crime of thinking black lives matter is some unhinged psycho poo poo dude.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 17:57 |
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:take away their money and give it to people and departments that actually help people We did. We defunded them by a poo poo ton in 2020 and guess what happened the libs voted to give it all right back to them in the most recent elections by electing a pro-cop mayor who is determined to hire 30% more cops, say hello to mayor bruce harrell https://mynorthwest.com/3407618/mayor-harrell-seattle-comprehensive-plan-police-officers-hiring/ Mayor Bootlicker posted:As the Seattle Police Department has continued to struggle with low staffing and high turnover amid growing concerns over public safety, Mayor Bruce Harrell believes that bringing more officers into the fold will require a multi-faceted approach in the months ahead. Seattle is not as progressive as many believe, it's every bit as liberal and NIMBY as San Francisco, quite possibly more so. HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Jun 13, 2022 |
# ? Jun 13, 2022 17:59 |
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Main Paineframe posted:Civil rights activists mysteriously turning up dead a few years after a protest movement is certainly bad, but I'm comparing it to a time period when Birmingham was derisively known as "Bombingham" due to how common it was for anti-segregationists' homes and organizations to be destroyed in bomb attacks. I'm talking about a time period when the local sheriff would organize armed vigilante mobs to storm buses in broad daylight to beat up the Freedom Riders. I'm talking about a time period when activists had to arrange their own transport to hospitals because ambulances would refuse to take them, a time period when they had to keep track of which hospitals were likely to refuse medical attention to them. KKK gangs would follow civil rights organizers and shoot at their cars, and then the FBI would smear the victims to cover up the fact that their own undercover informants were riding along with the KKK. Local cops would arrest activists and turn them over to lynch mobs. The FBI wiretapped MLK for years, and tried to blackmail him into committing suicide. Activists would be arrested on false charges, blamed for assaults and murders that authorities knew they couldn't possibly have committed, and in some cases sentenced to decades in prison. And all of that was in addition to the kind of stuff that still happens today, like riot police violently suppressing protests with tear gas and violence, police officers murdering people out of the public eye and claiming it was self-defense, and so on. It is convenient to compare the modern suppression of political organization to the suppression of past progressive social-political leaders when you are allowed to use revelations and confessions that occurred decades after the fact. Churchs are firebombed and shot up today, violent gangs of young men kill and maim in the name of fash ideology today, bullshit charges are brought on activists today, medical services for activists are entrusted only to those same activist groups today. In full, it is simpler to note that the suppression of now and the suppression of then are likely similar and for similar reasons.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:01 |
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Mitch is PRAYING he gets indicted. It would be the ideal outcome for him and his faction within the GOP.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:01 |
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:Mitch is PRAYING he gets indicted. It would be the ideal outcome for him and his faction within the GOP.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:03 |
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Gerund posted:It is convenient to compare the modern suppression of political organization to the suppression of past progressive social-political leaders when you are allowed to use revelations and confessions that occurred decades after the fact. I can just hear "The government isn't interfering with MLK the way they used to mess with unionizing miners. They used to bring in the Pinkerton's and drop bombs on those guys." echoing through history.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:03 |
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The absolutely wildest thing is that they apparently raised almost a quarter of a billion dollars from several million donors for the election legal fund. That is bonkers that so many people could shovel so much money into it. I honestly feel bad for the few million people who were throwing several thousand dollars at the election fund all the way through the end of 2021.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:04 |
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Lol if they get him on taxes and fundraising Well, it's how they got Capone.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:20 |
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Technically, this doesn't have to do with taxes. It is fraud and embezzlement. Seems unlikely that any potentially taxable income was reported, but we don't actually know if there were any tax violations. The information and documentation they have shows that about $17 million of the almost $250 million they raised went directly to the legal fund. At least $7.2 million went directly to Trump's PAC, as revenue for his hotel, and to "The America First Policy Institute" that he set up. They said that "most" of the money was fraudulently raised and did not go to the election legal fund. But, they only showed 5 examples and didn't put out the specific information on where the other ~$200 million went except "not the election legal fund."
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:26 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Technically, this doesn't have to do with taxes. He didn't pay taxes on that fraudulent income Sodomy Hussein posted:Well, it's how they got Capone.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:30 |
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Trump's campaign lawyer is now saying that ~$17 million went to "election related spending," but not to the election legal defense fund because... the election legal defense fund never actually existed. https://twitter.com/ZcohenCNN/status/1536397555474567168
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:30 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:According to the CDC data, policing policies and funding have almost no correlation with shootings/homicides. They might for other crimes, but cities with the most police and the toughest on crime policies had almost the exact same rise in murders as cities with the fewest police or the most reformist policing policies. Interestingly there was a lot of crowing during the "defund the police" discussions about how that was untenable, but that position is definitely looking stronger in the case of evidence that various configurations of policing are all equally bad at addressing any of the issues. It seems like this would be a pretty powerful data point to justify, if not that specific rhetoric, that approach of spending money and resources in a saner way
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:35 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump's campaign lawyer is now saying that ~$17 million went to "election related spending," but not to the election legal defense fund because... the election legal defense fund never actually existed. Does he have the books to prove it?
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:36 |
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FizFashizzle posted:Does he have the books to prove it? This was from the testimony this morning, but its also not unusual because this is how Trump has always done business even prior to the presidency: Grift and funnel founds out of projects into his pockets and the pockets of those close to him.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:38 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The January 6th testimony today revealed that Trump and his lawyers were diverting money promised to go to legal funds to challenge election results into his personal accounts, his hotel, and PAC. Approximately $7.2 million in total is confirmed to have been illegally embezzled and up to $233.5 million is unaccounted for. The fact that all this is going on and Trump can't tweet about it is an unbelievable injustice
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:46 |
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FlamingLiberal posted:After Trump got all of those judges he wanted confirmed? McConnell can get judges confirmed by a President DeSantis or whatever other ghoul steps up to claim the Trumpian throne just as well as he could with Trump, and any of the potential Trump successors would likely be on better personal terms with McConnell.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 18:59 |
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McConnell wants someone he can predict and influence 100% of the time, not an egomaniac who sometimes goes off in a weird direction that hurts other party projects.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 19:08 |
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Timeless Appeal posted:Honestly, I think the broader issue with Leftist movements is that the US has really eradicated the ability for authentic coalition building. There is a clear blueprint for organizing leftist movements in the US from the civil rights movement, religion. There is no desire by the left to use that and the ability to organize in that realm has been pretty much ceded entirely to the right. Like it or not large portions of Americans probably aren’t going to be Marxist and atheists. But they might have the potential to be Christian Socialists. But nobody speaks to them in those terms with that language.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 19:23 |
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Bar Ran Dun posted:There is a clear blueprint for organizing leftist movements in the US from the civil rights movement, religion. I don't know where you get this idea of a monolithic atheist left. There's a lot of religious people and groups involved in leftist organizing and it sounds like you've only been exposed to online white leftists.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 19:25 |
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Bar Ran Dun posted:There is a clear blueprint for organizing leftist movements in the US from the civil rights movement, religion. hasn't Cornel West been doing that for a while
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 19:26 |
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Bar Ran Dun posted:There is a clear blueprint for organizing leftist movements in the US from the civil rights movement, religion. There are lots of left wing religious charity groups in the US. Neither political party wants much to do with them and they themselves don't care about building political movements, they care about feeding hungry people on the street. One of the most radical housing groups I know, they literally just build shelters anywhere someone will let them, is connected to a church and does amazing work with almost no political help or outreach to them from political groups who supposedly say they want to house the homeless. Hell, when I do street out reach with non-denominational groups the most common question we get is which church we're with. At some point I feel like y'all have to figure out that it's more complicated than just "work harder" in a country where outlawing free food handouts is a bipartisan project. The left isn't failing because they have not found the one weird trick you have up your sleeve. Gumball Gumption fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Jun 13, 2022 |
# ? Jun 13, 2022 19:36 |
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Bar Ran Dun posted:
What are you basing this on? Because that's a pretty wild claim to throw out there
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 19:43 |
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some plague rats posted:The fact that all this is going on and Trump can't tweet about it is an unbelievable injustice He has his own social media company - Truth social. No clue if he is posting anything there or not.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 19:47 |
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CYBEReris posted:hasn't Cornel West been doing that for a while some plague rats posted:What are you basing this on? Because that's a pretty wild claim to throw out there Forgive me I’m working while doing this so I might not respond timely and I’m phone posting. Actually Cornell West is a good example. Dr. West will appear on a program and will speak to a very specific audience in very specific mannerisms and specific language. He very definitely could tailor his language to a boarder audience and intentionally does not. In other words he uses the symbols for a smaller community on purpose. This has its uses and a purpose. But it’s counter productive to speaking to the larger community. I mean I watch it and follow, but lol I’m married to a religion scholar educated on the south side of Chicago. My parents or my wife’s parents do not follow. So there is this tension, on one side of remaining true to ones specific community and language and symbols and the need of communication to occur to a broader community of people to build a broader movement and potentially to change the way the larger group thinks. In some ways what we need is like a synthesis of West and Obama. Obama went too far to the other side of this tension.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 20:36 |
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I think that's an extremely generous interpretation of Obama and his motives/actions. Obama built a "coalition" simply to get elected and once it served its purpose he purposefully destroyed it and spent all of his power doing either the absolute bare minimum (gay rights) or actively loving over the country in favor of capital (a thousand examples we're all familiar with). I don't think you can put Obama and West on the same continuum here in terms of "leftist" philosophy. Obama isn't leftist at all and never has been. I don't think "language" was an issue. Language was just a tool for him- he perfected the Clintonesque triangulation technique and wrung every winnable vote out of the electorate, then poo poo on the people who put him in power. FLIPADELPHIA fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Jun 13, 2022 |
# ? Jun 13, 2022 21:15 |
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Actually Cornell West is a good example. Dr. West will appear on a program and will speak to a very specific audience in very specific mannerisms and specific language. He very definitely could tailor his language to a boarder audience and intentionally does not. In other words he uses the symbols for a smaller community on purpose. This has its uses and a purpose. But it’s counter productive to speaking to the larger community. I mean I watch it and follow, but lol I’m married to a religion scholar educated on the south side of Chicago. My parents or my wife’s parents do not follow. It sounds like you're upset that Cornel West won't code switch?
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 21:15 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 08:59 |
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Yinlock posted:The Black Panthers are one of the most tragic examples. The U.S went to loving war against them. ... and MOVE in Philly, Cops literally dropped a bomb on them.
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# ? Jun 13, 2022 21:48 |