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FishBulbia posted:I mean the deputy defense minister said in an interview that UA had lost about 50 percent of their equipment and only 15 percent had been replaced. They're doing a tour of painting the war as increasingly desperate to get more arms, but the ability of Ukraine to force Russia out of its territory should be the center question in the negotiation debates. eh, even then. There's going to be some point at which the lines stabilize and neither side can push the other any farther either way. That might be the Ukrainian border or it might be the current battle lines or it might be somewhere else or in between. Whatever that line is, it's not going to be settled at the negotiation table; it's going to be settled because literally neither side is capable of fighting any more and both are reduced to exhaustion. There is not going to be a peace while Putin is alive, and possibly not afterwards either depending on the successor regime in Moscow.
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Jun 17, 2022 21:57
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FishBulbia posted:I mean the deputy defense minister said in an interview that UA had lost about 50 percent of their equipment and only 15 percent had been replaced. They're doing a tour of painting the war as increasingly desperate to get more arms, but the ability of Ukraine to force Russia out of its territory should be the center question in the negotiation debates. Source, please. orcane posted:You're supposed to be a moderator. Stop twisting my words, or gently caress off. They’re not moderating this thread. And neither are you, for that matter. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 22:06 on Jun 17, 2022 |
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Jun 17, 2022 22:04
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Source, please. https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/6/15/ukraine-to-us-defense-industry-we-need-long-range-precision-weapons They said it in an interview with a MIC magazine, just in case it wasn't clear what their incentive here was. quote:I'm not going to talk about the anti-tank guided missiles or anti-tank guided weapons for now. I’m just talking about heavy weapons. As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. … Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:07
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Nenonen posted:The problem with allowing this to drag on forever is, around half a million Vietnamese civilians died because of the war and a couple million people became refugees. And that doesn't even include all the amputees, people poisoned by Agent Orange, those tortured or raped, etc. You may be fine with the war grinding on as long as it will take for Ukrainian flag to be hoisted over the Kerch, but maybe you should still hope for a peace within this decade. While part of me is tempted to quote Sherman at you about war being hell, and the more terrible it is the quicker it is over; however, I won’t because you are right. From my perspective that’s monstrous way to think about the world and about war. With that said, do not steal the agency from the Ukrainian people, and the Vietnamese people in your example. It is there country and their people on the line, so what matters to us is relatively meaningless. The Ukrainians get to decide what is worth enduring, and how much suffering is too much. For the Vietcong and the North Vietnamese, the price they paid for their right to free themselves from the vestiges of colonialism and their right to determine their own fate was worth it; had it not been neither the French, or the Americans who followed them, would have ever left. So as far as I am concerned I am behind whatever Ukraine decides worth fighting for, and whatever price they are willing to pay for it. As long as they want to fight for their rights as a people and to preserve the territory of the Ukrainian state I am in favor of supporting them to the best of the West’s ability. To do otherwise is to be like Marcon sometimes sounds—being willing to sell out Ukraine and the desires of the Ukrainian because I think what I want is better, and more important, than the people actually fighting and dying a war against brutal naked imperialism.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:09
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FishBulbia posted:https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/6/15/ukraine-to-us-defense-industry-we-need-long-range-precision-weapons Cheers.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:10
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Source, please. https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/6/15/ukraine-to-us-defense-industry-we-need-long-range-precision-weapons
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Jun 17, 2022 22:11
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:[...]The root issue here is that the Russian government under Putin is a bad faith actor and wantonly aggressive.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:15
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orcane posted:Agreed, even though I would love there to be a better option, "just negotiate a peace" is not it. One party to such negotiations can't be expected to follow through with their promises at all, so what do you negotiate about? It will just be another Minsk fiasco where Russia refuses to fulfil any obligations from a treaty, then Ukraine refuse to unilaterally fulfill theirs because they can see what Russia is doing, then Russia blames Ukraine, sets up better logistics right behind their border and send in new tanks a while later. Yup this: How do you negotiate with a country that has openly and visibly reneged on nearly every agreement it makes? And then openly admits that they always intended to do so on live TV.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:19
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This war is essentially existential for both governments so its not like there is a middle ground they can meet on, which is why I think the frozen conflict outcome is most likely.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:19
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FishBulbia posted:This war is essentially existential for both governments so its not like there is a middle ground they can meet on, which is why I think the frozen conflict outcome is most likely. How is it existential for Russia? Putin wouldn't like....resign if he loses or withdraws. He's a president for life in a dictator position surrounded by yes men.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:20
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orcane posted:Agreed, even though I would love there to be a better option, "just negotiate a peace" is not it. One party to such negotiations can't be expected to follow through with their promises at all, so what do you negotiate about? It will just be another Minsk fiasco where Russia refuses to fulfil any obligations from a treaty, then Ukraine refuse to unilaterally fulfill theirs because they can see what Russia is doing, then Russia blames Ukraine, sets up better logistics right behind their border and send in new tanks a while later. And in the meanwhile Russia is randomly executing anyone who ever served in any Ukrainian armed forces unit who they can capture and shipping off all the kids to Kamchatka for "re-education." Like, there's no realistic option for Ukraine or Ukrainians here other than war to the bitter, bitter end. There are only so many possible scenarios from this point, and I can list them here:
I don't get this idea that all the most probable scenarios somehow aren't "realistic."
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Jun 17, 2022 22:21
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CommieGIR posted:How is it existential for Russia? Putin wouldn't like....resign if he loses or withdraws. He's a president for life in a dictator position surrounded by yes men. He'd be lucky to end up like Milošević if he lost
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Jun 17, 2022 22:22
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CommieGIR posted:How is it existential for Russia? Putin wouldn't like....resign if he loses or withdraws. He's a president for life in a dictator position surrounded by yes men. It's existential for his ego.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:22
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Doccers posted:It's existential for his ego. Ahhhh, there is that. FishBulbia posted:He'd be lucky to end up like Milošević if he lost Who would turn him over? Ukraine isn't going to march into Russia and get him. They want Russian forces out of Ukraine, that's it.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:22
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FishBulbia posted:https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/6/15/ukraine-to-us-defense-industry-we-need-long-range-precision-weapons Interestingly, Russia claims to have destroyed at least double those numbers. Not to mention downing more planes than Ukraine ever had.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:25
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CommieGIR posted:Ahhhh, there is that. Traditionally losing costly wars hasn't been a good way for Russian regimes to stay afloat. If he lost Crimea, nationalists would do him in. Nationalism and national pride is not something easily controlled once set alight.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:25
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FishBulbia posted:Traditionally losing costly wars hasn't been a good way for Russian regimes to stay afloat. If he lost Crimea, nationalists would do him in. Nationalism and national pride is not something easily controlled once set alight. Except Putin has been very careful about purging anyone in his party or around him who would do so. I don't think anybody will turn over Vladimir Putin if he loses or withdraws, and he'd just spin it a different way.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:28
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CommieGIR posted:Except Putin has been very careful about purging anyone in his party or around him who would do so. I don't think anybody will turn over Vladimir Putin if he loses or withdraws, and he'd just spin it a different way. I thought about this too when they started saying the operation was complete two months ago, just say "we got 'em" and leave. I don't think that's going to happen anymore. Especially if Ukraine will retake Crimea and the Donbas. There is no way they can spin that and keep national sentiments in check especially if the economic situation stays the same. Which is why the war will just continue. There is no middle ground. No point where Ukraine will say "we'll let you keep that part" and not point where Putin will be defeated and be able to retain control. It's existential for the Ukrainian state and existential for Putin. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 22:35 on Jun 17, 2022 |
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Jun 17, 2022 22:31
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FishBulbia posted:I mean the deputy defense minister said in an interview that UA had lost about 50 percent of their equipment and only 15 percent had been replaced. They're doing a tour of painting the war as increasingly desperate to get more arms, but the ability of Ukraine to force Russia out of its territory should be the center question in the negotiation debates. quote:https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/6/15/ukraine-to-us-defense-industry-we-need-long-range-precision-weapons
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Jun 17, 2022 22:36
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So what’s the thread take on continued NATO heavy weapons support? Is the west growing weary behind the scenes and trying to push for concessions? Is Ukraine getting predator drones?
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Jun 17, 2022 22:37
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:And in the meanwhile Russia is randomly executing anyone who ever served in any Ukrainian armed forces unit who they can capture and shipping off all the kids to Kamchatka for "re-education." If he wasn't a shitstain hellbent on breaking every agreement he ever signed for short term gains, you could argue that negotiating minor land loss for continued existence / peace / prosperity might be worth it. If he wasn't openly waging a genocidal war, people might actually accept Russian control of "Russian" Ukrainian regions, at least "temporarily". If he actually rebuilt the occupied territories in Donbass, people might take the promise of Russian control and development over more war in newly occupied places. If he didn't have a dozen similar territories occupied by Russian mobsters and soldiers turning to poo poo and being used for future military campaign, people might be willing to negotiate about the status of "border" lands and occupied land. But no. Everyone knows the Russians will probably kill you or ship you off to Siberia, destroy or steal everything in their path and leave it like that for decades, then set up local terror regimes to control the remaining population and nobody gives a poo poo about treaties they signed just the other day. Yeah I'm definitely going to cooperate with these guys and swallow my pride for a peaceful neighbourly future. 
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Jun 17, 2022 22:41
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DTurtle posted:Your summary is wrong. Expanding the excerpt you posted (edited to add who actually said what): https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/ukraine/groundforces-equipment.htm They've lost 50 % of MBTs at least according to those vague estimates oooh you're saying that they've only received 15% of what they need, not replaced 15% of what they lost. okay, nitpicky but ill allow it. but yeah, the main point is that they're saying what they have right now is not enough by quite a bit to bring the conflict to a decisive resolution.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:42
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Kraftwerk posted:So what’s the thread take on continued NATO heavy weapons support? Is the west growing weary behind the scenes and trying to push for concessions? IMO I don't believe the US is going to get tired of pouring money into their defence industry any time soon. The entire situation is a gift to them, an excuse to fund an industry with powerful lobby groups that comes at next to no cost. Europe is going to have some difficult times ahead with energy especially going into winter which may make some nations want a quick way out, but it's not universal. Eastern Europe is going to be far more determined to continue support and other countries that have more independence from Russian energy such as the UK are likely to find it easier to ignore. It's no coincidence that those nations that are less impacted or more determined have also been providing much larger assistance. I could imagine Germany or others wanting to apply pressure to end this early, but I don't see how they're going to be able to do much if those providing the bulk of the assistance want to continue to do so. All bets are off if this lasts into the next US election cycle though. As for predator drones - I'd heard they were getting them, or something very similar. This may have been walked back or misreported though since I've not heard anything recently.
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Jun 17, 2022 22:51
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Kraftwerk posted:So what’s the thread take on continued NATO heavy weapons support? Is the west growing weary behind the scenes and trying to push for concessions? Different people will have different opinions. Mine is that we’re seen so far not the limit of what can reasonably be delivered (not even close, lmao), but the limit of what can be explained away by decorum (on optics of co-belligerence in dainty European view) ft. private calculations of when Russia will go for turning the gas off to attempt to retaliate with a recession. They’re actively doing that anyways, so I think we may see a change of attitudes when that process is finished. And yes, or at the very least, Americans have yet to retract that announcement. Not sure what’s going to stop America from making liberal use of an excuse to grease its MIC.
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Jun 17, 2022 23:03
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Chalks posted:IMO I don't believe the US is going to get tired of pouring money into their defence industry any time soon. The entire situation is a gift to them, an excuse to fund an industry with powerful lobby groups that comes at next to no cost. On top of that, the budgets for these sorts of things are obviously about countering or nullifying opposed geopolitical forces, which usually has to be done through soft power poo poo But this situation? getting to literally bloody russia in their own ongoing and massively negatively received war of aggression? By arming the defenders of a hot peer war and helping preserve the autonomy of an attempted imperial conquest? Yeah like the US DOD is ever going to get a better return on investment. The money will flow
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Jun 17, 2022 23:33
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CommieGIR posted:How is it existential for Russia? Putin wouldn't like....resign if he loses or withdraws. He's a president for life in a dictator position surrounded by yes men. It depends how the war resolves, if Ukraine somehow manages to push Russia back to the Feb 23 lines, maybe even if they just retake Kherson, I think Putin would be toast. He can't come back from outright losing a war against Ukraine, look at how hard his administration is trying to make the sinking of the Moskva look like an accident unrelated to the special operation If you've seen the way Russian ultranationalists talk about Ukrainians, there's no way they'd let Putin walk away from anything resembling a loss
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Jun 17, 2022 23:49
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Flavahbeast posted:It depends how the war resolves, if Ukraine somehow manages to push Russia back to the Feb 23 lines, maybe even if they just retake Kherson, I think Putin would be toast. He can't come back from outright losing a war against Ukraine, look at how hard his administration is trying to make the sinking of the Moskva look like an accident unrelated to the special operation Id like to believe that would happen, but all I am saying is I am not holding my breath
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Jun 17, 2022 23:56
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oh I'm not saying that's what I think *will* happen, I'm just saying I don't think Putin would survive politically if it did
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Jun 18, 2022 00:01
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Mr. Putin can "legitimately" pronounce Ukraine de-nazified and leave with no real internal harm to his power. "Despite the meddling by NATO, which has exposed the true nature of the western powers, and despite our brave losses, we can leave now with honor. The Special Operation cost dearly, but Ukraine, de-nazified, has been taught a lesson that it will not forget. Our markets have shifted east, and available substitutions render the sanctions useless. By the way, the volume of energy exported to the EU has actually grown larger during the sanctions and will fund special projects increasing employment while also modestly increasing pensions. Thanks to the sturdy courage of all Russians, we have prevailed." Predicting injury to Putin absent Russian economic catastrophe isn't really informed by the solid grip he has on his position. He can say whatever the hell he wants to say, and except for a few vocal nuts like Girkin, he'll be fine. How he handles the economic shock will have a much greater influence on his power and position. He may lose everything post-war, but it won't be because the Ukrainians tweaked his nose.
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Jun 18, 2022 00:14
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Yeah, a much bigger potential issue is if Russia tries to pull dick on, say, Kazakhstan and they laugh in his face because they were keeping track of how much good poo poo got blown up in Ukraine.
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Jun 18, 2022 00:29
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Flavahbeast posted:It depends how the war resolves, if Ukraine somehow manages to push Russia back to the Feb 23 lines, maybe even if they just retake Kherson, I think Putin would be toast. He can't come back from outright losing a war against Ukraine, look at how hard his administration is trying to make the sinking of the Moskva look like an accident unrelated to the special operation Isn't that why Russian state media is working on the "We aren't fighting Ukraine, we are fighting NATO with one hand tied behind our back!". Or would that still be unacceptable?
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Jun 18, 2022 00:31
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the popes toes posted:Mr. Putin can "legitimately" pronounce Ukraine de-nazified and leave with no real internal harm to his power. And then what? Retreat to the parts of Ukraine they occupy? Giving up Kherson would threaten the regime, giving up Crimea would end it. Only way to avoid this is claiming that no one has actually bought into putinism, which is uh, charitable, to say the least.
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Jun 18, 2022 00:31
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Flavahbeast posted:oh I'm not saying that's what I think *will* happen, I'm just saying I don't think Putin would survive politically if it did I'm not sure if this vision of the future is comforting. Having people more radical than Putin in charge of Russia would not be a good time.
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Jun 18, 2022 00:33
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WarpedLichen posted:I'm not sure if this vision of the future is comforting. Having people more radical than Putin in charge of Russia would not be a good time. Putin so far has at least indicated that he himself desires to stay alive, which is a slight comfort compared to whomever might replace him
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Jun 18, 2022 00:37
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CommieGIR posted:No, the good estimates for Russia to have a supply crisis was always around mid June. checking in on this, do have any signs of a supply crisis yet?
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Jun 18, 2022 00:41
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BigRoman posted:Isn't that why Russian state media is working on the "We aren't fighting Ukraine, we are fighting NATO with one hand tied behind our back!". Or would that still be unacceptable? I would say that’s more of an attempt to manufacture an excuse for why 100 days have passed with nothing to show (relative to the initial proclamations). The simultaneous messaging is that Russia is a rival to NATO, wherein it wouldn’t make sense to surrender to the Nazis just because NATO exists. As someone else remarked earlier today, the principal difficult for Russia to walk away is Putin. To him this war is entirely emotional, and he methodically destroyed all easy off-ramps in the build up to this, presumably to force everyone else to rally around him, and to shore up popular support of the government.
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Jun 18, 2022 00:43
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Mia Wasikowska posted:checking in on this, do have any signs of a supply crisis yet? There's some info that BTGs that normally have 700-800 troops are down to 70-80, and yeah they've lost a significant amount of their most modern armor, and are down to pulling in training tanks. So it seems like supplies are starting to get scarce.
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Jun 18, 2022 01:03
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Mia Wasikowska posted:checking in on this, do have any signs of a supply crisis yet? Would it work if I link you Putin’s spokesperson saying yesterday that Russia finds itself in “an uncomfortable position” to compensate for a 40-45% deficit in imports on an accelerated schedule? https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5413689 The backdrop to this is Russia’s main annual economics conference.
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Jun 18, 2022 01:05
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CommieGIR posted:There's some info that BTGs that normally have 700-800 troops are down to 70-80, and yeah they've lost a significant amount of their most modern armor, and are down to pulling in training tanks. So it seems like supplies are starting to get scarce. I presume we're ignoring the breathless proclamations of dwindling supplies from the various OSINT weirdos when we talk about mid June being the consensus date? looking at u bellingcat
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Jun 18, 2022 01:14
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A big flaming stink posted:I presume we're ignoring the breathless proclamations of dwindling supplies from the various OSINT weirdos when we talk about mid June being the consensus date? looking at u bellingcat I remember the week 3 prediction. I think nobody knows.
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Jun 18, 2022 01:15
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