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Rust Martialis posted:The argument that Al Qaeda was not a contracting party is clearly arguable, but they certainly were not the regular Afghani army. The Russians have captured foreign members of the regular Ukrainian Army who fought in uniform, under orders, and presumably confirmed to the rules of war. It's all moot anyway. Russia's already done summary executions of ukrainian-born ukrainian soldiers in ukrainian uniforms.
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Jun 21, 2022 18:05
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Grakkus posted:You guys have forgotten about the Polish Krab SPG, which is on par with the pzh2000 and, more importantly, has been actually delivered and in significantly higher numbers than the pzh2000 (18 delivered, 60 more ordered). I think the PzH2000 has better burst and sustained RoF but yeah otherwise the Krab is said to be about on par. Having more of them would probably matter more than the RoF.
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Jun 21, 2022 18:10
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Mr. Apollo posted:Did anything every come of the OSINT accounts saying they were taking a break for a few days? I remember some people were suggesting that there may have been a major OPSEC breach in the UAF so they suffered a major defeat. Twitter shadowbanned their accounts and the break was an attempt to restore them https://www.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1536942905012756486
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Jun 21, 2022 18:10
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OddObserver posted:I forgot about that, but I was more specifically thinking of the artillery project collapsing from all the new tech --- it feels like it may work better to get all the fancy stuff worked out and proven in proof of concept stuff before trying it on the big army -supplying contracts. The grants you and I can see the existence and results of are usually stuff that has public applications in addition to wartime uses. Anything which is exclusively or primarily military focused would almost certainly be classified, and those tend to be the expensive fiddly bits that sink advanced weapons systems. There aren't exactly many civilian use cases for a cannon that uses liquid propellant or an electromagnetic catapult for yeeting planes off of a carrier. On the other hand there are oodles of applications for say a durable backpack sized solar generator capable of powering some sensors and a communications station, so that's the sort of thing where the public grants are.
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Jun 21, 2022 18:20
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https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1539286667646967809?cxt=HHwWgoC9ibPE0twqAAAA A few unrelated outlets are proclaiming this was accomplished with the newly acquired HIMARS, but I'm doubtful there will be official attribution.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:00
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the popes toes posted:https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1539286667646967809?cxt=HHwWgoC9ibPE0twqAAAA What's the strategic value of Snake Island anyway?
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Jun 21, 2022 19:01
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Kraftwerk posted:What's the strategic value of Snake Island anyway? Long-term it might be useful for Russia due to expanding territorial waters. Short-term it is basically Russia just idiotically throwing away lives and equipment for no gain, but maybe the Black Sea fleet is under pressure to do anything at all.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:06
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Kraftwerk posted:What's the strategic value of Snake Island anyway? In the abscence of Moskva and suitable replacement for it, it can be used as a big anti-air platform to protect Black Sea fleet from Ukranian aviation.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:08
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It's effectively an unsinkable AA platform, unlike the Moskva. The issue is, as seen, the Ukrainians can still hit it with long-range artillery.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:10
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https://www.businessinsider.de/politik/deutschland/ringtausch-verzoegert-sich-weiter-scholz-panzer-deal-mit-der-slowakei-droht-zu-platzen-b/ Business Insider claims that Germany has called off half of Slovakia’s would-be replacement Leopards. Morrow posted:It's effectively an unsinkable AA platform, unlike the Moskva. The issue is, as seen, the Ukrainians can still hit it with long-range artillery. Yeah, it’s just 35km away from the shore.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:15
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Kraftwerk posted:What's the strategic value of Snake Island anyway? At this point, I have no idea WRT Russia. It is near the coast and close to the territorial waters of both Ukraine and Romania. For Ukraine, it appears they are treating it as a Russian corpse generating facility.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:15
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It would be useful to hold, both as kind of an anchor to their presence that far south (eg it allows them to pressure a ton of the south western Ukrainian coast) which itself forces Ukraine to keep some forces committed to the south west. In practice, it's basically just sunk cost island and it's hosed with by parts of the ukrainian military that have nothing else to do at the moment.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:24
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Dreissi posted:At this point, I have no idea WRT Russia. It is near the coast and close to the territorial waters of both Ukraine and Romania. It's for an EEZ claim and also siege Odessa shipping lanes* It's more intricate that than but I don't know a gigantic amount about intl water laws
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Jun 21, 2022 19:25
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Yeah in theory it is at an extremely strategic location that could be useful on a ton of levels. In practice they have not managed to capitalize on it really at all.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:28
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It's also right next to Romanian coast, i.e. a listening post and potentially a missile base on top of the NATO assats in the western Black Sea.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:28
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:It's for an EEZ claim and also siege Odessa shipping lanes* This is it, a lot of international land owning is possession is nine tenths of the law. China has built islands in the South China Sea purely to extend EEZ and control. Whoever has one dude standing on the island when a truce is called, will likely own it until the next broader conflict. Doesn't matter how precarious the hold, it is EEZ and controls the coast of Ukraine in that area. It's also a sign that Russia assumes it wont be able to take Odessa in this round of conflict.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:37
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Yeah because they've sent their marines into the meat grinder in urban combat.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:43
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re: Snek Island, in a war many things are done that on surface don't make sense but which in the grand scheme play some kind of role. One thing is that it's a way for the Black Sea fleet to prove that they are contributing to the war effort! Without it, all they could do is patrol outside ASM range. It is located right at the border of Ukraine and Romania and right along the sea route from Odesa, so it is a strategic location. If Ukraine were to take it back they could stage missiles there to potentially even open that route for shipping, which would be huge - assuming that NATO would protect the ships once they moved to Romanian waters, because Ukraine doesn't have any navy left to support them further. It ties down Ukrainian reserves that could otherwise be used in other sectors. It is a matter of prestige, for both sides. It is a symbol of occupation, and of defiance. cinci zoo sniper posted:Yeah, it’s just 35km away from the shore. Actually, when you look at the map, the Danube delta which covers the area closest to Snake is a biosphere reserve and there aren't really roads or bridges there. Kind of hard to get any heavy equipment there without taking some big risk of being noticed and hit back with missiles because there's very few if any roads, and the paths that exist probably aren't even suitable for heavy equipment. The closest easily accessible point is 45 km from the island.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:43
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Nenonen posted:re: Snek Island "The Himars that Washington is providing to Ukraine will have a range of about 50 miles (80km), a US official told reporters."
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Jun 21, 2022 19:51
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Nenonen posted:One thing is that it's a way for the Black Sea fleet to prove that they are contributing to the war effort! Kofman said something about the early war which was interesting. Basically it seemed that each part of the military was trying to prove its "use case" even when it was tactically unnecessary.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:53
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I would hope the limited supply of American MLRS would be going to Kherson or Donbass and not sitting in Odesa.
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Jun 21, 2022 19:54
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Rust Martialis posted:"The Himars that Washington is providing to Ukraine will have a range of about 50 miles (80km), a US official told reporters." If Ukraine does use their best equipment to shell Snake Island then that's a solid victory for Russians. FishBulbia posted:Kofman said something about the early war which was interesting. Basically it seemed that each part of the military was trying to prove its "use case" even when it was tactically unnecessary. Never underestimate the politics in military, especially in an autocracy... to use ON (Original Nazi) example, Göring was Hitler's best buddy who never dared to say that Luftwaffe couldn't accomplish some mission, whether it be the battle of Britain or supplying the Stalingrad pocket. And despite all these failures, once Luftwaffe had no use for two hundred thousand men working in the organization because there weren't enough flyable aircraft, he was able to use his relations to form infantry units called Luftwaffe Field Divisions instead of giving the men to the Heer. And of course Luftwaffe had its own Panzer Division, too. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Jun 21, 2022 |
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Jun 21, 2022 19:59
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Electric Wrigglies posted:This is it, a lot of international land owning is possession is nine tenths of the law. China has built islands in the South China Sea purely to extend EEZ and control. Whoever has one dude standing on the island when a truce is called, will likely own it until the next broader conflict. Doesn't matter how precarious the hold, it is EEZ and controls the coast of Ukraine in that area. Neither Snake Island nor any of the Artificial islands in the SCS have a recognised EEZ.
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Jun 21, 2022 20:08
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Speaking of Snake island we got satellite photos https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1539268070539153408?t=qS9gFt7w93V7onX-nfaMZA&s=19 https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1539284359303376897?t=F_vYPTQiHQBAhGzu3aKeEw&s=09
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Jun 21, 2022 20:09
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Who ordered the smoked snek? Always a pleasure to see UA keep smashing russian toys and troops placed there in a fit of pique and dumbassery.
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Jun 21, 2022 20:17
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It does seem that the situation in Donbass is still going downhill fast https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1539199298755350528?s=20&t=oX7oZPmtTFiqGjx6CsJzVQ
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Jun 21, 2022 20:28
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That Russia continues to try and hold it, and that Ukraine continues to use valuable munitions to hit it, suggests it has some use. If nothing else that stuff could be in Donbas, Black Sea Fleet assets cannot.
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Jun 21, 2022 20:35
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Alchenar posted:Neither Snake Island nor any of the Artificial islands in the SCS have a recognised EEZ. Snek Island most assuredly would legally because it is permanently above high tide. The Chinese have gotten the Philippines to withdrawal their opposition and routinely hose down or ram any fishing boats that get more than 15 miles SCS side of and away from Palawan. You say it is not recognized in theory but in practice, it is very much recognized. Only the Indonesians are really pushing back (I know, non SCS actors such as the US and Australia run around playing I'm not touching you games but for now that hasn't stopped the Chinese now considering it a done deal and moving to Fiji, Solomon Islands, etc).
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Jun 21, 2022 20:38
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Electric Wrigglies posted:Snek Island most assuredly would legally because it is permanently above high tide. No this has been settled in a case between Ukraine and Romania, it only extends a 12 mile territorial zone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_Delimitation_in_the_Black_Sea_case
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Jun 21, 2022 20:41
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FishBulbia posted:It does seem that the situation in Donbass is still going downhill fast This may explain why Ukraine is apparently using its newest toys to shell Snake Island, if they judge the front too fluid to risk them there (which would be prudent, but bodes nothing well for Donbas.)
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Jun 21, 2022 20:47
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OddObserver posted:This makes me wonder if US military does any cheap (by military standards) grants to develop technology the way, say, NASA does? SBIR programs off the top of my head cap out at $250,000 at the first level, if you make it through phase I you get $1,000,000. Other programs do similar granting amounts for research.
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Jun 21, 2022 20:48
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It is really unlikely that Snake Island would be a major issue in any armistice negotiation, compared to points such as the possession of Sevastopol naval base or the fate of Donbas. Given that it's along Ukraine's most important port's route and in the long run it is a losing position for Russia to try to hold it, Ukraine will not agree to any compromise on Snek.
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Jun 21, 2022 20:50
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FishBulbia posted:I would hope the limited supply of American MLRS would be going to Kherson or Donbass and not sitting in Odesa. Eh, it doesn't have to be there very long. HIMARS is very accurate, and with essentially nowhere for the targets to hide or withdraw to this is a situation where a single salvo of rockets from a single HIMARS or M270 could remove all credible air defenses on the island, opening it up for the Ukrainian Air Force to do the rest. Maybe 2 salvos if the Tor systems actually work as advertised. Then you roll it back onto a flatbed and keep going East. Delivery of the Harpoons means it's not gonna be easy for Russia to replace anything they lose. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 20:57 on Jun 21, 2022 |
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Jun 21, 2022 20:53
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the holy poopacy posted:This may explain why Ukraine is apparently using its newest toys to shell Snake Island, if they judge the front too fluid to risk them there (which would be prudent, but bodes nothing well for Donbas.) The things have a 50km or something range, you don't have to park them in the Severodonetsk town square to shoot at poo poo
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Jun 21, 2022 20:55
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the holy poopacy posted:This may explain why Ukraine is apparently using its newest toys to shell Snake Island, if they judge the front too fluid to risk them there (which would be prudent, but bodes nothing well for Donbas.) Eeeeh, why are you thinking that Ukraine is using it's newly acquired equipment to shell Snake Island? They have shown to be capable of striking the island for a long time. The front is still moving at a snail pace.
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Jun 21, 2022 20:57
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Nenonen posted:Eeeeh, why are you thinking that Ukraine is using it's newly acquired equipment to shell Snake Island? They have shown to be capable of striking the island for a long time. The front is still moving at a snail pace. He might be right, insofar as the BM-27 and BM-30 would be tremendously inaccurate at those ranges to the point where it might be a waste of ammunition better used elsewhere. We'll see when more information comes out.
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Jun 21, 2022 21:00
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Warbadger posted:Eh, it doesn't have to be there very long. HIMARS is very accurate, and with essentially nowhere for the targets to hide or withdraw to this is a situation where a single salvo of rockets from a single HIMARS or M270 could remove all credible air defenses on the island, opening it up for the Ukrainian Air Force to do the rest. Maybe 2 salvos if the Tor systems actually work as advertised. Then you roll it back onto a flatbed and keep going East. Driving to the southern coastal area would still mean that the unit would be several days away from where they are really needed to patch up Ukrainian defense, and it would use up limited ammunition and precious fuel. Why bother?
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Jun 21, 2022 21:01
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Alchenar posted:No this has been settled in a case between Ukraine and Romania, it only extends a 12 mile territorial zone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_Delimitation_in_the_Black_Sea_case I stand corrected. Ta.
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Jun 21, 2022 21:03
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Warbadger posted:He might be right, insofar as the BM-27 and BM-30 would be tremendously inaccurate at those ranges to the point where it might be a waste of ammunition better used elsewhere. We'll see when more information comes out. I don't mean rocket artillery. ik edit:  Russian stuff and people get blown uphttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tx88AAN3BWQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJV40LM-4TA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hF8ZNkLLLY (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Jun 21, 2022 |
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Jun 21, 2022 21:07
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Nenonen posted:Driving to the southern coastal area would still mean that the unit would be several days away from where they are really needed to patch up Ukrainian defense, and it would use up limited ammunition and precious fuel. Why bother? The ammunition is likely to be less limited than the existing Soviet systems as NATO can provide plenty of ammunition and you need less ammo in general assuming good targeting data allows for pinpoint strikes. Fuel is a non-issue when it comes to moving a single launcher around on a flatbed. As for why? It significantly complicates Russian efforts to fortify the island to whatever end they've been doing so - probably establishment of long range air defenses to shore things up in the South. Nenonen posted:I don't mean rocket artillery. These drone strikes were followed by Russian forces moving a battery of Pantsir and Tor systems onto the island. Which is not to say definitively that the drones didn't just wreck a bunch of pantsirs again. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Jun 21, 2022 |
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Jun 21, 2022 21:09
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