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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The gas tax holiday is bad policy and it is a good thing that Republicans are cynically opposed to it now because they don't want gas prices to go down and Democrats don't want to lower taxes or defund the federal highway fund. It would probably be more effective if the "pretend to do something" response wasn't his default. IMO it would be better to direct peoples' ire towards the corporations/oil barons/etc jacking up the price, but that would probably upset donors.
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Jun 23, 2022 02:05
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The gas tax holiday is stupid because for the average person filling up their tank it's going to knock about two bucks off the total. Do they really think people will notice or care that they're paying $55 at the pump instead of $57?
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Jun 23, 2022 02:06
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:He was only a political nobody in the "Ronald Reagan? The actor?!?" sense. This is some Marty McFly positioning you have going on here, friend. The escalator event was something that no one prognosticated, that I could have seen at the time, and I am an avid fan of US politics!, and during his run a vast majority of the media circuit treated him as a joke. Literally, we have John Oliver apologizing for the fact! It wasn't until, say, Chris Christie suicide-bombing himself on Rubio that anyone on the circuit figured this might be happening, and even then, barely. You remember Cruz's running mate falling through a floor? Ronald Reagan was asked to run while Nixon was doing rounds in 1968, it is laughable that you'd bring him up in comparison to what is happening today.
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Jun 23, 2022 02:07
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This Is the Zodiac posted:The gas tax holiday is stupid because for the average person filling up their tank it's going to knock about two bucks off the total. Do they really think people will notice or care that they're paying $55 at the pump instead of $57? https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1410709115333234691?s=20&t=mZ_tyRpr_UgXZlkayQAr3w
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Jun 23, 2022 02:07
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This Is the Zodiac posted:The gas tax holiday is stupid because for the average person filling up their tank it's going to knock about two bucks off the total. Do they really think people will notice or care that they're paying $55 at the pump instead of $57? Joe Biden did promise on the campaign that nothing would fundamentally change if he were president. This proposal seems consistent with his philosophy toward governance.
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Jun 23, 2022 02:10
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Rappaport posted:This is some Marty McFly positioning you have going on here, friend. The escalator event was something that no one prognosticated, that I could have seen at the time, and I am an avid fan of US politics!, and during his run a vast majority of the media circuit treated him as a joke. Literally, we have John Oliver apologizing for the fact! It wasn't until, say, Chris Christie suicide-bombing himself on Rubio that anyone on the circuit figured this might be happening, and even then, barely. You remember Cruz's running mate falling through a floor? I have also never heard about Trump supposedly being a major frontrunner in 1996. It doesn't really matter anyway because he didn't actually launch a campaign.
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Jun 23, 2022 02:31
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Kalli posted:Saw this come across my feed and had a few dark chuckles: Honestly, I think this isn't as bad as it sounds, because the disapproval rate among 18-25 is lower than every other age group except the 65+. It's true that the approval rate is lowest, but it's not accompanied by a corresponding increase in the disapproval rate. Instead, the 18-25 group has by far the most people answering "Don't Know". That means that they're more winnable than the other age groups, and there's potential for big gains if he does something to win them over.
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Jun 23, 2022 02:45
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FlamingLiberal posted:Reagan almost got the nomination in 1976 over Gerald Ford as well. He was considered a major GOP figure going back into the '50s and then into the '60s when he was Governor of CA and cracking down on the Black Panthers and student protesters. Trump actually first floated his Presidential run in 1988 and had been active in politics since then. If you want to see a disturbing video of Oprah talking to a much more coherent Trump in 1988 that is saying the same things as 2016 Trump, but couching the racism better in "universal" language, then watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEPs17_AkTI Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Jun 23, 2022 |
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Jun 23, 2022 02:48
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FlamingLiberal posted:
You didn't watch The Simpsons back then?
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Jun 23, 2022 02:50
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BiggerBoat posted:You didn't watch The Simpsons back then?
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Jun 23, 2022 03:03
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Jaxyon posted:In other news, I’m not sure what I think about swimming and trans athletics. Here’s an example. A good d 1 men’s 500 is pushing 4:05 -4:10 the women are about thirty seconds behind like 4:30 to 4:40 in the finals. That’s a large difference, like 50 yards ahead. A throughly mediocre men’s swimmer, like me for example when I was competing might be in that 4:40 range. Hell I remember early high school boys that were down to 4:40 at states. Anyway the point, solid persistent 30 second difference between the top men and top women in the 500. Transition changed her (Lia Thomas’ ) 500 by only 15 seconds. She was a good swimmer before transition and after. The argument is that puberty as man confers a permanent advantage. They’re basing that on the divergence than occurs in boys vs girls times at puberty. They’re going to be able to look at huge amounts of data to reach and support that conclusion. So it’s two things at odds. Trans women are women and we should treat them as such in society. Transwomen at the elite level in swimming probably do have a real and significant advantage even after hormone levels are made equal. I feel like there has to be some other solution than, she can’t compete. But I’ll be damned if I can think of anything that isn’t extremely problematic in either direction. It’s also going to be interesting to see when we get transwomen who transitioned before puberty competing at the elite level in swimming. It’s a loving mess.
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Jun 23, 2022 03:04
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump actually first floated his Presidential run in 1988 and had been active in politics since then. Yes, the man https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NsrwH9I9vE active in politics. Do you have any receipts about people anticipating the escalator? Do you have any receipts before that saying Trump will be president? Back to the Future does not count, I already called that.
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Jun 23, 2022 03:04
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Rappaport posted:Yes, the man https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NsrwH9I9vE active in politics. Nobody said it was obvious he would win or anything like that. Someone said he was a "nobody" who hadn't been involved in politics until 2016. He had been floating a Presidential run since 1988, was floated as a front-runner in 1996, actually ran for President in 2000, was considering a run in 2012, and actually ran for President a second time in 2016. Not to mention all the Obama stuff, his work promoting Perot, and his other dips into national politics. Edit: Time Magazine even had him on the cover in 2000 and ran an article about him potentially being "our first independent President" and the "rise of the independents" after Perot did so well and Ventura won the Governorship. 
Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 03:13 on Jun 23, 2022 |
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Jun 23, 2022 03:08
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Nobody said it was obvious he would win or anything like that. Someone said he was a "nobody" who hadn't been involved in politics until 2016. He had been floating a Presidential run since 1988, was floated as a front-runner in 1996, actually ran for President in 2000, was considering a run in 2012, and actually ran for President a second time in 2016. Not to mention all the Obama stuff, his work promoting Perot, and his other dips into national politics. Okay, but you did state this Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump actually first floated his Presidential run in 1988 and had been active in politics since then. Which is kind of silly on its face when you look at it. No one considered Trump a contender in the 90's, unless you wish to argue the opposite?, and the escalator came as a surprise to the commentator class en masse. Do you propose, now, that you, and potentially other commentators in the media, had unsourced ideas about Donald Trump running for POTUS?
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Jun 23, 2022 03:13
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This Is the Zodiac posted:The gas tax holiday is stupid because for the average person filling up their tank it's going to knock about two bucks off the total. Do they really think people will notice or care that they're paying $55 at the pump instead of $57? It's probably too late for that, since I'm seeing gas prices sliding downward 20 cents for the past week. Maybe after July 4th we will see it go down further.
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Jun 23, 2022 03:22
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Bar Ran Dun posted:I’m not sure what I think about swimming and trans athletics. How about you let her perform because who gives a gently caress. It’s a sport. Let them have the advantage. Sports is about seeing people who were born in the right place with the right genetic lottery ticket and what they’re able to achieve, so why draw a line when it comes to someone who transitioned? Automata 10 Pack fucked around with this message at 03:29 on Jun 23, 2022 |
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Jun 23, 2022 03:23
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Main Paineframe posted:Honestly, I think this isn't as bad as it sounds, because the disapproval rate among 18-25 is lower than every other age group except the 65+. What's the "something" Biden is going to do to win over this age group? Even if Biden moves heaven and Earth and wins over 100% of the "don't know" group (which is very unlikely), he's still underwater with that age group by 10 points. These are disastrous numbers for Biden, given that he won that same age group by 24 points in 2020. He would have likely lost the election with the numbers he is pulling now. The next tweet in that thread also points out that Trump has higher approval rating than Biden in the 18-34 group: https://twitter.com/whstancil/status/1539715117062971393/photo/1 These numbers are absolutely as bad as they sound for Biden.
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Jun 23, 2022 03:26
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B B posted:What's the "something" Biden is going to do to win over this age group? Even if Biden moves heaven and Earth and wins over 100% of the "don't know" group (which is very unlikely), he's still underwater with that age group by 10 points. These are disastrous numbers for Biden, given that he won that same age group by 24 points in 2020. He would have likely lost the election with the numbers he is pulling now. Approval doesn't equal votes, though. Biden actually has slightly lower approval than Trump in the NH poll from earlier today, but he still beats Trump by 7 points. His approval was also almost 20 points lower than his vote margin among that group in 2020. They are absolutely bad numbers, but approval doesn't translate 1:1 to vote share.
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Jun 23, 2022 03:29
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Automata 10 Pack posted:How about you let her perform because who gives a gently caress. It’s a sport. Let them have the advantage. Lots of cis women who swim competitively do. The people swimming at that level have often been doing it for nearly 20 years in college. A day on a spring training trip at the college level might be 13 miles of running, two hours practice, weight lifting, two more hours of practice repeat the next day. Like a marathon and a half plus lifting everyday for a week basically. She’s putting that in too. But at that level nothing that would give that much of advantage is allowed.
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Jun 23, 2022 03:49
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Lots of cis women who swim competitively do.
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Jun 23, 2022 03:52
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Automata 10 Pack posted:Why prioritize their feelings over trans athletes? Why have women's divisions? Just make it open and eliminate men's and women's sports.
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Jun 23, 2022 03:57
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Lots of cis women who swim competitively do. Maybe you should just go gently caress yourself. How rigidly do you want "womanhood" defined to compete in woman's sports? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 23, 2022 03:59
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Bar Ran Dun posted:I’m not sure what I think about swimming and trans athletics. Most combat sports, though there are few examples in practice due to other factors, allow you to fight after three years of hormone therapy. Swimming likely would require less time. The real answer is that gendered classes were a good short hand for the past but we can be more exact in our measurements and how we build classes in sports these days if we try. Edit: and really let's be honest gendered classes in a lot of sports are so the girls don't beat the boys. Makes sense in some but lmao in a lot. Gumball Gumption fucked around with this message at 04:02 on Jun 23, 2022 |
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Jun 23, 2022 03:59
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Rigel posted:Why have women's divisions? Just make it open and eliminate men's and women's sports.  Gumball Gumption posted:Most combat sports, though there are few examples in practice due to other factors, allow you to fight after three years of hormone therapy. Swimming likely would require less time. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 23, 2022 04:06
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selec posted:Iowa losing first in the nation status after the cadre of Democratic failures who screwed the pooch on tallying the Dems last caucus results is poetic. All because one campaign tried to rig it, poorly.
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Jun 23, 2022 04:10
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AsInHowe posted:All because one campaign tried to rig it, poorly. The lol part too because the left are pissed about the blatant rigging and the establishment are pissed it was such a clown show.
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Jun 23, 2022 04:15
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Twincityhacker posted:Maybe you should just go gently caress yourself. How rigidly do you want "womanhood" defined to compete in woman's sports? Oh yeah it’s a loving problem with a horrifying history. I think back, would I have fought for this person to swim if they had been on my team, yes. But is the decision being made by governing body the one that is fair to the competitors as a group, yes. Rigel posted:Why have women's divisions? Just make it open and eliminate men's and women's sports. There would be no competitive women swimmers with no male / female division. You can search NCAA times. https://www.usaswimming.org/api/Rep...leDownload=true What you’ll notice is that for all events the number 1 woman doesn’t make the top 100 men. The gender disparity is particularly large in swimming. Though it does narrow on longer events, like the 1000 or 1650 (but it does not disappear). Edit: having done some competitive fighting too... the gender gap is larger in swimming Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 04:20 on Jun 23, 2022 |
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Jun 23, 2022 04:18
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Ghost Leviathan posted:The lol part too because the left are pissed about the blatant rigging and the establishment are pissed it was such a clown show. It was absolutely hilarious, a total McKinsey embarrassment.
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Jun 23, 2022 04:25
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Oh yeah it’s a loving problem with a horrifying history. I think back, would I have fought for this person to swim if they had been on my team, yes. But is the decision being made by governing body the one that is fair to the competitors as a group, yes. Why do you assume there would only be one group within which all would compete? It's possible to sub-segment a population without relying on something as arbitrary and ill defined as gender. There's nothing fair about bigotry. All that decision did is dishonor the sport.
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Jun 23, 2022 04:30
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Bar Ran Dun posted:There would be no competitive women swimmers with no male / female division. You can search NCAA times. Now suppose we advance genetics a bit farther and parents can use genetic treatments to increase the probability that their offspring will have beneficial traits for sport. In this thought experiment the treatment actually works, and works well. However, the treatments are only available to families who have $100,000 of disposable income. If this situation occurs, would not the top 100 in sport X not be determined by generational wealth, rather than individual talent? In this world would you separate those with genetic treatments into their own division?
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Jun 23, 2022 04:42
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Bel Shazar posted:Why do you assume there would only be one group within which all would compete? It's possible to sub-segment a population without relying on something as arbitrary and ill defined as gender. Unfortunately that’s not going to work with swimming at the elite level because it isn’t an arbitrary division. Again you can look at the top times reports which show the top 100 men and women in each event. https://www.usaswimming.org/times/otherorganizations/ncaa-division-i/top-times-report What other criteria are you going to use that doesn’t exclude women? No woman of any body type, weight, or hormone level in any event makes the top 100 men. Lia Thomson doesn’t either. This is probably unique to swimming as a sport. Also to be clear here I think there should no restrictions at all for anything that isn’t like d1 or higher.
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Jun 23, 2022 05:01
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Tnega posted:Suppose for the sake of argument an individual that is 8.5 feet tall. Much like gender dysphoria, this is a medical condition. Now suppose they have treatments that negate the other health issues that stem from that condition. It is not hard to assume that there are sports they would be very competitive at. Should they be allowed to compete at all, or should there be another category specifically for individuals of unusual size. I’m 5-10 and was built like a brick poo poo house. This is to say big loving thighs not the wide shouldered narrow waist swimmers build. I used to be able to kick a 100 (in 54) so within about four or five seconds of what I could swim it free style. I’m not the right body type and it limited my competitiveness with a pretty hard ceiling. We aren’t talking about sports in general. This is swimming specifically and yes there is a specific build for it and goofy looking genetic lottery winners built like Phelps are more competitive. But the argument is that the genetic lottery winners get that body in male puberty. Tnega posted:Now suppose we advance genetics a bit farther and parents can use genetic treatments to increase the probability that their offspring will have beneficial traits for sport. In this thought experiment the treatment actually works, and works well. However, the treatments are only available to families who have $100,000 of disposable income. If this situation occurs, would not the top 100 in sport X not be determined by generational wealth, rather than individual talent? In this world would you separate those with genetic treatments into their own division? Yes if there were a clear advantage supported by the times of those competitors.
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Jun 23, 2022 05:32
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Oh yeah it’s a loving problem with a horrifying history. I think back, would I have fought for this person to swim if they had been on my team, yes. But is the decision being made by governing body the one that is fair to the competitors as a group, yes. Interestingly, women have an advantage over men in marathon swimming, but not regular swimming events. As far as I know marathon swimming is the only physical sport where women's performance exceeds men's, but I'm not at all certain.
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Jun 23, 2022 05:33
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Unfortunately that’s not going to work with swimming at the elite level because it isn’t an arbitrary division. Again you can look at the top times reports which show the top 100 men and women in each event. Just ballpark spitting here, but for swimming specifically, what about different categories such as lung capacity? Probably could use other measurements, but that seems like an important one. Kalit fucked around with this message at 05:40 on Jun 23, 2022 |
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Jun 23, 2022 05:37
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Bar Ran Dun posted:But the argument is that the genetic lottery winners get that body in male puberty. So? We don’t draw lines like this around other birth defects, just this condition, for some weird reason. It’s because trans women aren’t viewed as “real” women. If people who’d had club feet corrected as kids turned out to be better sprinters, do you really think they’d be disqualified from competing with “normal “ people? What makes this different?
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Jun 23, 2022 05:51
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Koos Group posted:Interestingly, women have an advantage over men in marathon swimming, but not regular swimming events. As far as I know marathon swimming is the only physical sport where women's performance exceeds men's, but I'm not at all certain. Open water swimming is different. I don’t know enough about it, I did a bit it but only as a side thing like polo was a side thing. I do know Diana Nyad makes the male puberty argument. Honestly I should get into it because age also is much less relevant in marathon open water. Kalit posted:Just ballpark spitting here, but for swimming specifically, what about different categories such as lung capacity? Probably could use other measurements, but that seems like an important one. I don’t have any data for you here other than personal anecdote . We used to do competitions about that at the Academy, I could hold my breath for 5-6 minutes under water not doing anything just staying submerged. That was quite good but other swimmers could go 30 - 40 seconds longer. I could swim about 150 yards underwater without coming up. Never seemed correlated to times. I mean there was always practicing breathing patterns. But the nationals qualifiers, those guys didn’t seem to give a poo poo or have it matter. Every other stroke breath patterns.
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Jun 23, 2022 05:56
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B B posted:What's the "something" Biden is going to do to win over this age group? Even if Biden moves heaven and Earth and wins over 100% of the "don't know" group (which is very unlikely), he's still underwater with that age group by 10 points. These are disastrous numbers for Biden, given that he won that same age group by 24 points in 2020. He would have likely lost the election with the numbers he is pulling now. If he wins over 100% of the "don't know" age group, then they would be his strongest supporters. He'd still be underwater, sure, but the point of the tweet was to compare relative support across different age groups - and the point of my response is that the high "don't know" percentage suggests lots of room to grow his support among young voters, compared to the other groups who've already settled on approve or disapprove. The second tweet points out that Trump had better approval among young people in 2018 than Biden does now. Given the fairly significant national developments since 2018, and the rather dismal state of affairs right now, I don't find this nearly as surprising or significant as the tweeter does.
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Jun 23, 2022 05:57
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DeadlyMuffin posted:So? It's not inconceivable that the Olympics would ban certain medical interventions. We have the case where they attempted that with Oscar Pistorius due to his amputated legs, or the fact that they don't allow anyone on the heart medicine trimetazidine.
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Jun 23, 2022 06:01
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DeadlyMuffin posted:So? I think that if we don’t have a lovely society this question eventually goes away. If trans kids don’t have to go through the wrong puberty this ceases to be a question. It is only that our society loving sucks and trans kids don’t get the right puberty that this is a problem and basically just in this sport.
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Jun 23, 2022 06:03
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Koos Group posted:Interestingly, women have an advantage over men in marathon swimming, but not regular swimming events. As far as I know marathon swimming is the only physical sport where women's performance exceeds men's, but I'm not at all certain. I went down a rabbit hole on this. The top men usually win in the more common "marathon" open water events at 10km and 20km but things start to get more interesting at "ultra-marathon" type of distances and longer. The data is very thin because ultra-marathon swimming is not a commonly contested event, but it appears that on average women may possibly have an advantage at ridiculously long swimming distances which take all day (over 40km) in cold water (under 20 C).
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Jun 23, 2022 06:08
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