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Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Soylent Pudding posted:

There's another angle on Twitter that makes it a bit more clear the missile did a sideways horseshoe as opposed to a full 180.

A much more understandable image for me at least. :tipshat:

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Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

According to the Washington Post, Ukraine is short on ammo in part because the Russian military intelligence agency has been buying back or blowing up foreign stocks of ammo in Soviet calibres.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/24/ukraine-ammunition-russian-sabotage-artillery/

Washington Post posted:

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine is running out of shells for the majority of its artillery in part because of a clandestine Russian campaign of bullying and sabotage over the past eight years, including bombings of key munitions depots across Eastern Europe that officials have linked to Moscow, according to Ukrainian government officials and military analysts.
---
A sort of shadow war is taking place for what few 152mm shells are available on the global market. A U.S. citizen helping to broker weapons transfers to Ukraine said he recently approached an Eastern European country to negotiate a purchase of artillery rounds. Officials in that country said they couldn’t make a deal, the man said, because the Russians had already warned that they would “kill them if they sold anything to the Ukrainians.”
---
In 2014, after Russia first invaded Ukraine and fueled a separatist war in the country’s east, members of the elite Russian military intelligence unit 29155 sabotaged ammunition stored at depots in the Czech Republic, according to Czech authorities.

The following year, according to Bellingcat, a Britain-based investigative organization, members of the same unit used a nerve agent to poison a Bulgarian weapons executive, who told the New York Times he had been storing ammunition at the Czech facilities and had sold arms to Ukraine.
---
Russian saboteurs are also suspected of causing four explosions at Bulgarian arms depots from 2011 to 2020, according to Bulgarian prosecutors, who have said Moscow was aiming to disrupt supplies to Ukraine and Georgia.
---
Ukrainian officials suspect Russian and separatist saboteurs extended the effort inside Ukraine in recent years, leading to a series of explosions at ammunition storage facilities.

Blasts in 2017 at two big Ukrainian depots, which together had stored 221 metric tons of ammunition, dealt a massive setback to Ukrainian forces, sapping them of critical supplies that would be difficult and expensive to replace.
---
An explosion the following year at a depot in the Chernihiv region storing another 88,000 metric tons of ammunition was another setback for the Ukrainian arsenal.
---
The United States has committed 126 howitzers and provided 260,000 corresponding 155mm artillery rounds to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration, equivalent to the amount of ammunition that Russia, according to the Ukrainian officials, is expending in the course of about five days.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006
I heard they could use some overtime on the General Dynamics production line.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Just Another Lurker posted:

A much more understandable image for me at least. :tipshat:

This seems like a possibly good analysis of the event. Seems to match what I see reasonably well.

ChubbyChecker
Mar 25, 2018

Alan Smithee posted:

you don't put caviar on a slice of bread

you actually do

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

A.o.D. posted:

I heard they could use some overtime on the General Dynamics production line.

Ammo machine goes brrrrr

Arrath
Apr 14, 2011


Marshal Prolapse posted:

Ammo machine goes brrrrr

It would be very Cold War/Contact "we built a second alien machine in secret lol" if it turned out we had a stateside production line for Soviet cannon ammunition. Either for CIA poo poo or wargames or something.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
Reminds me of this old, but impressive video of a Saudi Patriot launch gone awry

https://twitter.com/Erdayastronaut/status/1183154360341192711?s=20&t=eC28eZFxPpHt0aY5RDjhfA

Slo-Tek
Jun 8, 2001

WINDOWS 98 BEAT HIS FRIEND WITH A SHOVEL
How hard can it be to make new dies 10mm different one way or the other? Seems like even at MIC prices a "make the exact same ammo you were making, but like a quarter inch bigger...or smaller" is a weeks-long and a few odd million dollar process, rather than months or years or real money. Does anybody know different?

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Arrath posted:

It would be very Cold War/Contact "we built a second alien machine in secret lol" if it turned out we had a stateside production line for Soviet cannon ammunition. Either for CIA poo poo or wargames or something.

That would be amazing and I do think we have manufactured some parts for maintaining MiGs and other stuff that we have.

LRADIKAL
Jun 10, 2001

Fun Shoe

Slo-Tek posted:

How hard can it be to make new dies 10mm different one way or the other? Seems like even at MIC prices a "make the exact same ammo you were making, but like a quarter inch bigger...or smaller" is a weeks-long and a few odd million dollar process, rather than months or years or real money. Does anybody know different?

lol. dies are the hardest thing.

Slo-Tek
Jun 8, 2001

WINDOWS 98 BEAT HIS FRIEND WITH A SHOVEL

LRADIKAL posted:

lol. dies are the hardest thing.

It is unclear what information you are imparting here. Are you suggesting LOL that in fact ROFL the dies are the hard part. Or LMAO there is some other part of the process that *slaps knee* is the tricky bit, which is what I asked.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

hypnophant posted:

Video is deceiving. What it looks like to me is, the camera is at 10 or 11 o'clock relative to the missile's travel; that is, the missile is approaching the camera at an angle, rather than traveling perpendicular across its field of view. The missile then suffers a failure that causes it to deflect down and to the left from its original travel, eventually impacting the ground somewhere between the point of origin and the camera. The failure could be a guidance failure but I assume a mechanical failure of one of the fins or something is also a possibility.

The missile only appears to return to the point of origin because we can't see depth in a video very well. In reality, it moves away from and returns to the line between the camera and launcher, but doesn't ever turn around and start getting closer to the launcher itself.

CainFortea posted:

It was going away from the launcher at all times until it impacted the ground. The thing you are saying it did, it did not do. From the missile's perspective, it was going up at an incline, then went down and to the left. Still traveling forward.

You will notice that all the sparks are traveling towards the camera on impact. It wouldn't do that if it was going away from the camera.

Edit: Also also, look at the illumination on the contrails. The parts that are near the launcher aren't as bright as the area near the impact.


Soylent Pudding posted:

There's another angle on Twitter that makes it a bit more clear the missile did a sideways horseshoe as opposed to a full 180.

Ahh, I see what you're saying, but that's not what I said. The tracking radar (the emitter) for a radar-guided SAM system is typically not collocated with the actual launcher unless its a fully self-contained SHORAD system like the SA-19. The tracking radar would be on a separate vehicle set up near the launcher. The "horseshoe" in that video brings it back well close enough to have been tracking the emitter, I didn't mean it literally returned to origin.

It could have been bad luck though, just seemed pretty crazy and I was speculating. Could have just said the perspective was playing tricks with making it look like a 180 instead of just being "you're wrong" and making me play guessing games.

Jarmak fucked around with this message at 21:41 on Jun 24, 2022

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Slo-Tek posted:

How hard can it be to make new dies 10mm different one way or the other? Seems like even at MIC prices a "make the exact same ammo you were making, but like a quarter inch bigger...or smaller" is a weeks-long and a few odd million dollar process, rather than months or years or real money. Does anybody know different?

Without going into it a huge amount, very. Very. Similar to how tool steel is the most difficult to make and most critical part of the whole operation, the dies are not just precision gear but also need to be durable to an insane degree.

Soul Dentist
Mar 17, 2009

ChubbyChecker posted:

you actually do

I will absolutely not stand here and let a blin be referred to as just "a slice of bread"

Diarrhea Elemental
Apr 2, 2012

Am I correct in my assumption, you fish-faced enemy of the people?

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Without going into it a huge amount, very. Very. Similar to how tool steel is the most difficult to make and most critical part of the whole operation, the dies are not just precision gear but also need to be durable to an insane degree.

Plus the QA/QC after retooling entire lines, because, y'know, tolerances for bang bang things are a lot less forgiving when you get em wrong.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Without going into it a huge amount, very. Very. Similar to how tool steel is the most difficult to make and most critical part of the whole operation, the dies are not just precision gear but also need to be durable to an insane degree.

Yeah artillery shells are one of those things I really don’t want to that kind of half rear end it with.

ChubbyChecker
Mar 25, 2018

Soul Dentist posted:

I will absolutely not stand here and let a blin be referred to as just "a slice of bread"

yeah, you can eat them on blinis too, but slices of bread are also a good choice

Neophyte
Apr 23, 2006

perennially
Taco Defender
Make the shells oversize with a soft lead casing and let them squeezebore slugbore their way out. No worries about tolerances then!

I am a military genius.

Neophyte fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Jun 24, 2022

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006
Actually, there is a little give with the production of artillery shells. The steel case of the shell doesn't interface with the bore of the artillery tube. There's a forcing ring typically made of brass that actually contacts the rifling of the barrel. While there does need to be a good deal of precision, the most precisely machined part should be that ring, and brass is relatively forgiving when it comes to the hardness of the machine tools you need to manufacture it.

edit: Driving band, not forcing ring. Sorry.

A.o.D. fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Jun 24, 2022

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Jarmak posted:

The "horseshoe" in that video brings it back well close enough to have been tracking the emitter, I didn't mean it literally returned to origin.

A relatively easy way for this to occur is for the computer to calculate the shortest achievable intercept path to a target and to decide that intercept point is underground or behind itself such that the shortest interceptor turn path takes it underground. Don’t know if that happened here, but it can be a thing.

Some SAMs will instead abort intercept and self-destruct up in the air if this occurs.

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


The driving band, not to be confused with the marching band

Jimmy Smuts
Aug 8, 2000

Are there any US companies that make 7.62x39 and/or 5.45x39? If so, I see an investment opportunity.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Ukraine is pulling out of Severedonetsk, leaving Russia to rule over another smoking crater.

ISW's stating that the city itself has limited strategic value and Russia just spent the better part of a month burning through manpower and equipment taking it. It does seem like its come at the expense of their other efforts (Kherson/Zhaporizhiya, Kharkiv, and Izyum), but I've also gotta imagine Ukraine lost quite heavily defending it as well.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
I’m just gonna say we should give them the greenlight to hit poo poo across the border, not Moscow or say anything there’s a strategic weapon. I don’t think even have to go that far in deep to screw Russia’s logistics tremendously.

PookBear
Nov 1, 2008

we'll give them m16/m4s before we start up serious production of 5.45

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Jimmy Smuts posted:

Are there any US companies that make 7.62x39 and/or 5.45x39? If so, I see an investment opportunity.

There's a couple I know of, dunno if they are shipping to Ukraine.

Winchester is one of them.

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Without going into it a huge amount, very. Very. Similar to how tool steel is the most difficult to make and most critical part of the whole operation, the dies are not just precision gear but also need to be durable to an insane degree.

Also an enormous amount of shimming as the punches wear and trial-and-error to dial in how big the steps between each progressive die can be every time you get a new furnace heat of raw material from the steel mill. Doesn't matter how tight your chemistry specs are, every new lot number of stock hits different.

Deep cup drawing is a pain in the rear end, I can't even imagine how much more complexity is added having to also swage the top almost closed while leaving enough material to thread for a fuse.

Wasabi the J
Jan 23, 2008

MOM WAS RIGHT
Russia had literal foreign agents in the NRA lol

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

like we're just making little 40mm x 40mm bucket tappets for car engines and even that takes a 12-station progressive press with 12 different sets of dies to make one piece and it's almost as big as my house

Soul Dentist
Mar 17, 2009
Just put each tappet on a lathe and mill down to bullet shape duh

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
*showing up with a microwave size 3d printer*

how about we just 3d print them???

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

shame on an IGA posted:

like we're just making little 40mm x 40mm bucket tappets for car engines and even that takes a 12-station progressive press with 12 different sets of dies to make one piece and it's almost as big as my house
I think what you manufacture actually might be more difficult than an artillery shell.


edit: I'm talking your run of the mill shoot it go boom type.

edit: As an example of how simple the dumb M795 is to manufacture, they have a per unit cost of 330 dollars. That's 103 pounds of machined steel, brass, and high explosive (fuse and propellant charge not included). That's loving cheap. You're not getting a lot of high precision machining for that price.

You're probably not going to 3D print them, but you can probably CNC them if needed.

A.o.D. fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Jun 24, 2022

Jimmy Smuts
Aug 8, 2000

PookBear posted:

we'll give them m16/m4s before we start up serious production of 5.45
Hmm, well yeah we did give the Afghans and Iraqis ARs. I wonder which path would be easier, shipping 5.56 + ARs + manuals to Ukraine, or expanding production of 5.45 & shipping that out?
And then there's the possible reliability issues of ARs that could pop up during sieges. All the ARs I've used including mine can be finicky, while all the AKs I've used, including mine & one in Afghanistan made in '72 that was so beat to poo poo that it only fired full-auto, never jammed.

Raged
Jul 21, 2003

A revolution of beats
I never had an issue with any M-16a2 I was ever issued. M249s are another story.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

Raged posted:

I never had an issue with any M-16a2 I was ever issued. M249s are another story.

The only M16 I've ever had that EVER gave me trouble was the completely clapped out A1 we were issued in Basic that we discarded right when we started BRM.

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

ok wow yeah one of the yugoslavian casing factories gave a tour and it's primitive as gently caress

https://youtu.be/akAQ5s4-Tp0

e: maybe not that bad there's some part handling automation later on but manual feed into the hot press is a shocker

the way you'd do this for high volume is put a fuckoff huge induction heater just before the press tooling so you could heat, forge, and shear off in one step, advance the bar, repeat. No handling and everything goes in and comes out oriented the same way for the convenience of your robots

shame on an IGA fucked around with this message at 00:23 on Jun 25, 2022

karoshi
Nov 4, 2008

"Can somebody mspaint eyes on the steaming packages? TIA" yeah well fuck you too buddy, this is the best you're gonna get. Is this even "work-safe"? Let's find out!
Also under the conditions of both war and supplying a 3rd party you can skip compliance to MIL-STD-420/STANAG-69, which isn't cheap, let me tell you.

Steezo
Jun 16, 2003
Now go away, or I shall taunt you a second time!


A.o.D. posted:

Actually, there is a little give with the production of artillery shells. The steel case of the shell doesn't interface with the bore of the artillery tube. There's a forcing ring typically made of brass that actually contacts the rifling of the barrel. While there does need to be a good deal of precision, the most precisely machined part should be that ring, and brass is relatively forgiving when it comes to the hardness of the machine tools you need to manufacture it.

edit: Driving band, not forcing ring. Sorry.

Obturating band. Not to be confused with the ogive.

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Soul Dentist
Mar 17, 2009

shame on an IGA posted:

ok wow yeah one of the yugoslavian casing factories gave a tour and it's primitive as gently caress

Popped in from the worst hotdog thread where they are talking about calamari and pig anus and read this and I thought I had clicked back in

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