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eviltastic posted:Profs aren't from Yale but I'm betting you're referencing this one: https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf That's the one! It being Princeton is probably why I couldn't find it, can never seem to remember that part right, thanks. Some good graphs in there.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:12
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Twincityhacker posted:This is flat out "lay down and rot" talk. gently caress that, a better world is possible.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:14
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TyrantWD posted:Not like anything was happening in 2009 that would be a higher priority to the politicians of that time. Can you explain the connection you are drawing between a busy schedule and not wanting Republicans to be upset with you
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Jun 25, 2022 03:17
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cat botherer posted:No it is not. It is an argument to put your limited resources to useful ends instead of supporting an unjust system. Vote, because not voting is a half vote for the greater evil, but definitely stop supporting the system. We live under occupation.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:18
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If the Democrats lose this election and further conservative bullshit continues they’ll just say “Well people have spoken and they want this. It’s democracy.”
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Jun 25, 2022 03:21
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cat botherer posted:No it is not. It is an argument to put your limited resources to useful ends instead of supporting an unjust system. Voting takes six days a year *at maximum*. And two of those days are local elections, which if you were only acting locally you would be voting in anyway. And, yes, it is an unjust system. But doing nothing does not make it more just. It also gives people who literally want you and your loved ones dead more leavers to kill you with.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:24
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Majorian posted:None of this is an excuse for the Dems not to follow through on their promises to protect abortion rights legislatively. The only opportunity the Democrats had to something in the last 30 years was a 2-3 month period in the middle of the biggest recession in living memory, and an attempt to pass a large sweeping healthcare bill. Would it have been nice to get it done at the time? Sure. Was it a priority in the moment - no, and probably not to most people at the time, who would question why the Democrats are wasting their time on a heated Roe v Wade debate, which everyone considered settled, at a time when people were losing their homes, and neighborhoods were looking like ghost towns. 2009 GOP was very much in the hands of the business wing of the party, and Roe wasn't under threat. The Tea Party didn't take off until after the supermajority was lost, when people realized holy poo poo, these Republicans are crazy.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:25
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Could you please actually address the argument I'm making?
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Gatts posted:If the Democrats lose this election and further conservative bullshit continues they’ll just say “Well people have spoken and they want this. It’s democracy.” Yeah, they're not going to learn their lesson either way, and I hope no one is under the illusion that they will. The Democratic Party is simply no longer a viable vehicle for bringing about progressive change. The best thing for people to focus their attention and energy on is direct action outside of the electoral system, because that's where you can make the biggest impact. Continue to vote if you feel so compelled; I don't blame anyone for using whatever tools they have at their disposal. But at this point, that shouldn't be where leftists or progressives should be investing most of their energy, time, or resources.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:25
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Twincityhacker posted:This is flat out "lay down and rot" talk. gently caress that, a better world is possible. Oh sure if you want to vote, that's fine. It's something to do on a Tuesday morning and If your polling location is in a school it's fun to go to the bathroom and pee in one of those super low urinals. But we are well past the point where you can honestly think its going to alter the course of this country. Bel Shazar posted:Vote, because not voting is a half vote for the greater evil, but definitely stop supporting the system. We live under occupation. Not voting is actually no vote at all
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Jun 25, 2022 03:26
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TheIncredulousHulk posted:Can you explain the connection you are drawing between a busy schedule and not wanting Republicans to be upset with you Well in the middle of the Great Recession, it was common for people to have more pressing priorities than codifying something everyone thought was settled and untouchable anyway.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:26
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Gatts posted:If the Democrats lose this election and further conservative bullshit continues they’ll just say “Well people have spoken and they want this. It’s democracy.” Would that be untrue?
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Jun 25, 2022 03:27
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i don't think i've ever been angrier at myself than i am right now thinking back to voting for obama in 2008 hoping for change and, well, hope completely fuckin useless spineless party of fuckin clowns
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Jun 25, 2022 03:27
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I’m not going to vote for people who are talking about discarding trans people because their focus group tested slogans about the topic had high unfavorable ratings with jet ski dealers with one dog from southeast ohio
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Jun 25, 2022 03:28
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TyrantWD posted:The only opportunity the Democrats had to something in the last 30 years was a 2-3 month period in the middle of the biggest recession in living memory, I posted a number of periods of time in which they held large Congressional majorities or supermajorities and the White House besides the 2009-2010 period. During those periods, support for keeping abortion legal was roughly the same as it is today, as evidenced by the Gallup poll that I keep posting. Would you please tell me why those periods of time would not have worked?
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Jun 25, 2022 03:29
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Gripweed posted:Not voting is actually no vote at all Incorrect. Not voting shrinks the overall vote pool making majority easier to reach. If voting for the viable lesser of two evils is one whole vote that the greater must overcome to win, the lack of voting at all acts like a oartial vote in their favor. Maybe i should have just said partial and not half. I rounded.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:30
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TyrantWD posted:Would that be untrue? Looks at gerrymandering... Very much so
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Jun 25, 2022 03:30
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Gatts posted:If the Democrats lose this election and further conservative bullshit continues they’ll just say “Well people have spoken and they want this. It’s democracy.” Basically this, except unironically. There really is no good excuse for the people in this election. If they decide not to punish the GOP just a short 4.5 months after Roe v Wade was overturned, then we would have to conclude that abortion rights is just simply not that important to most people.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:31
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Gatts posted:If the Democrats lose this election and further conservative bullshit continues they’ll just say “Well people have spoken and they want this. It’s democracy.” Considering we've got an ardent Democrat already posting that excuse ITT and it hasn't even happened yet, I think you're right TyrantWD posted:Well in the middle of the Great Recession, it was common for people to have more pressing priorities than codifying something everyone thought was settled and untouchable anyway. What does that have to do with Obama's stated reason for not doing it, which was because Republicans would be mad? You keep repeating they were busy but that's not what Obama said when he surrendered on it Obama posted:I think that the most important thing we can do to tamp down some of the anger surrounding this issue is to focus on those areas that we can agree on Why did he say this? Explain how it connects to being too busy to pass an 8 page bill that did nothing but reaffirm the status quo TheIncredulousHulk fucked around with this message at 03:38 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 03:35
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Rigel posted:Basically this, except unironically. There really is no good excuse for the people in this election. If they decide not to punish the GOP just a short 4.5 months after Roe v Wade was overturned, then we would have to conclude that abortion rights is just simply not that important to most people. A more likely explanation is that voters have simply lost faith in the Democratic Party's willingness to protect their hard-fought rights, and don't see any point in turning out for them. One can already see this at work as the Dems hemorrhage working-class POC voters across the country. Majorian fucked around with this message at 03:38 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 03:35
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Majorian posted:I posted a number of periods of time in which they held large Congressional majorities or supermajorities and the White House besides the 2009-2010 period. During those periods, support for keeping abortion legal was roughly the same as it is today, as evidenced by the Gallup poll that I keep posting. Would you please tell me why those periods of time would not have worked? I'm also not sure I can think of a better time to codify Roe than during a massive healthcare overhaul, since abortion is healthcare.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:35
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TyrantWD posted:The only opportunity the Democrats had to something in the last 30 years was a 2-3 month period in the middle of the biggest recession in living memory, and an attempt to pass a large sweeping healthcare bill. Would it have been nice to get it done at the time? Sure. Was it a priority in the moment - no, and probably not to most people at the time, who would question why the Democrats are wasting their time on a heated Roe v Wade debate, which everyone considered settled, at a time when people were losing their homes, and neighborhoods were looking like ghost towns. lol, the republicans can get what they want under all sorts of circumstances, but the democrats should only be expected to do anything during The Convergence, when all the planets align perfectly over Nancy Pelosi’s house.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:36
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Gripweed posted:But we are well past the point where you can honestly think its going to alter the course of this country. Uh, yeah? Every improvment to the system that has happened after the Civil War has happened because of local actions and voting.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:37
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How about this if you actually give a poo poo about trans or women’s rights you’ll stop voting for mainline Dems besides specific progressives willing to take a stand because every time you vote blue no matter who you’re telling the DNC everything is okay keep up the good work and also THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY ISNT A PARTY THAT SUPPORTS TRANS OR WOMENS RIGHTS, regardless of what it’s voters want.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:39
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Twincityhacker posted:Uh, yeah? Every improvment to the system that has happened after the Civil War has happened because of local actions and voting. There was a lot of direct action that paved the way for things like the New Deal or the Civil Rights Act. Voting was kind of the tip of the iceberg.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:40
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Majorian posted:A more likely explanation is that voters have simply lost faith in the Democratic Party's willingness to protect their hard-fought rights, and don't see any point in turning out for them. One can already see this at work as the Dems hemorrhage working-class POC voters across the country. Most people are not extremely online political nerds like us who follow Washington's minutia and agonize over whether their priorities are being given serious consideration by party and congressional leaders. There is also not really any confusion whatsoever on which party supports and opposes abortion. It is very, very simple this year. If the GOP is not punished then the most likely explanation is that abortion is just really not that important to most people.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:40
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Twincityhacker posted:Uh, yeah? Every improvment to the system that has happened after the Civil War has happened because of local actions and voting. You’ve got to be loving kidding me
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Jun 25, 2022 03:43
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Bel Shazar posted:Incorrect. Not voting shrinks the overall vote pool making majority easier to reach. If voting for the viable lesser of two evils is one whole vote that the greater must overcome to win, the lack of voting at all acts like a oartial vote in their favor. Hypothetically, if one candidate said that they will kill 1,000,000 people and the other candidate said that they will kill 1,000,001 people, would you still vote or would you vote for the "lesser" evil in this case?
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Jun 25, 2022 03:44
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Rigel posted:Most people are not extremely online political nerds like us who follow Washington's minutia and agonize over whether their priorities are being given serious consideration by party and congressional leaders. There is also not really any confusion whatsoever on which party supports and opposes abortion. We’ve already elected them to do it, they can go do it now?
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Jun 25, 2022 03:44
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Rigel posted:Most people are not extremely online political nerds like us who follow Washington's minutia and agonize over whether their priorities are being given serious consideration by party and congressional leaders. No, they base their votes (including whether or not to vote at all) on whether or not they feel the party in power has made their lives materially better. The Dems have not succeeded at doing this for many working-class voters of color, which is why they are falling away from the party. e: Here's the big problem with your argument, as I see it: you're not really demonstrating that the Democratic voters don't care about abortion rights, or that they don't "vote hard" enough in important elections. What you are demonstrating is that the Democratic Party establishment either 1, doesn't care about what their voters think about issues like abortion; 2, is extremely out-of-touch with how its voters feel about reproductive rights; or 3, a mixture of both. The mistake that Democratic voters have made for decades is in trusting their party leaders to actually implement their preferences. Majorian fucked around with this message at 03:50 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 03:44
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Majorian posted:There was a lot of direct action that paved the way for things like the New Deal or the Civil Rights Act. Voting was kind of the tip of the iceberg. I get that, that's why I said "local action AND voting." A lot of people in the thread are advocating for not voting at the federal level ever. And maybe the state level too, honestly not sure.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:48
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Majorian posted:No, they base their votes (including whether or not to vote at all) on whether or not they feel the party in power has made their lives materially better. The Dems have not succeeded at doing this for many working-class voters of color, which is why they are falling away from the party. I don't disagree with that. The election is not that far away. If this does not fire people up and get them to decide they care about voting this time, then we have to conclude that abortion is not important. Maybe some people who don't vote might have mildly cared a little bit, but not really all that much.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:49
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Majorian posted:I posted a number of periods of time in which they held large Congressional majorities or supermajorities and the White House besides the 2009-2010 period. During those periods, support for keeping abortion legal was roughly the same as it is today, as evidenced by the Gallup poll that I keep posting. Would you please tell me why those periods of time would not have worked? I can’t tell you what was going on in 1995 or 1975 (although a cursory glance at those time periods tells you that most of the rest of those periods fell under a GOP president). If we are really asking why the Democrats didn’t codify Roe v Wade in 1975, we have probably lost the plot.
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Jun 25, 2022 03:50
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Rigel posted:I don't disagree with that. The election is not that far away. If this does not fire people up and get them to decide they care about voting this time, then we have to conclude that abortion is not important. Maybe some people who don't vote might have mildly cared a little bit, but not really all that much. No, as I keep point out, we do not "have" to conclude that. A far more likely explanation is that they no longer trust the Democrats to follow through on their promises to protect reproductive rights. TyrantWD posted:I can’t tell you what was going on in 1995 or 1975 (although a cursory glance at those time periods tells you that most of the rest of those periods fell under a GOP president). Okay, well, I can tell you what was going on in 1995: we had a Democratic president and an outgoing Democratic majority. They had lost a big midterm election in '94, but they were still in a lame duck period and could easily have passed a reproductive rights bill that Clinton could have signed into law. And no, I don't think we've "lost the plot" if we're asking why the Dems didn't codify Roe when they had the opportunity to do so. It's their repeated failure to do so that explains why voters do not trust them to protect reproductive rights. Majorian fucked around with this message at 03:58 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 03:51
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Rigel posted:I don't disagree with that. The election is not that far away. If this does not fire people up and get them to decide they care about voting this time, then we have to conclude that abortion is not important. Maybe some people who didn't vote might have mildly cared a little bit, but not really all that much. People already voted for the Dems and people feel that nothing has changed or has gotten worse. People might get fired up or they'll look at what the Democrats have done since getting control of Congress and the White House and feel that the Democrats don't deserve their vote. What was the last major piece of legislation that Congress passed and how did it positively affect the material needs of people?
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Jun 25, 2022 03:51
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theCalamity posted:Hypothetically, if one candidate said that they will kill 1,000,000 people and the other candidate said that they will kill 1,000,001 people, would you still vote or would you vote for the "lesser" evil in this case? If one of those 2 were guaranteed to win, then yes. It wouldn’t even be a question. 1 more life saved may not mean a lot to you, but I’d take that. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 25, 2022 03:52
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:You’ve got to be loving kidding me Where do you think Medicare and Medicaid came from, the loving sky? No, it was direct action and voting! theCalamity posted:People already voted for the Dems and people feel that nothing has changed or has gotten worse. People might get fired up or they'll look at what the Democrats have done since getting control of Congress and the White House and feel that the Democrats don't deserve their vote. Off the top of my head, the lovely compromise infurstructure bill is going to make sure that La Crosse, Wiscosin isn't going to flood every time they get more than a light rain. And that's only one project of of thousands that will materially affect people's lives. Would it have been better if Build Back Better was actually passed? Yeah, but saying that what did pass isn't going to improve people's lives at all is stuipd. Twincityhacker fucked around with this message at 04:05 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 03:57
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Double Post
Twincityhacker fucked around with this message at 04:06 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 04:03
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Bel Shazar posted:Looks at gerrymandering... Polling indicates an outright GOP win. Sure it will be magnified by gerrymandering, but they are looking at a clear majority of the popular vote in November. Hard to argue that is not what the people want if that ends up as the result.
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Jun 25, 2022 04:05
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Rigel posted:I don't disagree with that. The election is not that far away. If this does not fire people up and get them to decide they care about voting this time, then we have to conclude that abortion is not important. Maybe some people who don't vote might have mildly cared a little bit, but not really all that much. Why should we accept a system that allows human rights to be stripped away no matter how they're stripped? It's just endlessly frustrating to hear how bad voter suppression is out of one side of the mouth and then how voters don't vote hard enough out of the other side. Are people not voting hard enough to protect their human rights or are those rights being unconstitutionally stripped? Is this a failure of the system or is this totally acceptable if fascists get enough fascists to the ballot box? Gumball Gumption fucked around with this message at 04:08 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 04:05
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TyrantWD posted:I can’t tell you what was going on in 1995 or 1975 (although a cursory glance at those time periods tells you that most of the rest of those periods fell under a GOP president). You still haven't told me what the connection is between spring 2009 being busy and Obama explicitly surrendering on the codification of Roe in order to appease perceived anti-choice anger roughly six months after winning a landslide victory as a pro-choice candidate. Are you ever going to explain?
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Jun 25, 2022 04:07
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