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Gumball Gumption posted:How does popularity decide if there's a crack down or not? They usually just always start with that by default, and then see what happens. If the voters don't like it, they will often tone it down and switch towards engaging and convincing ordinary people that actually the protestors are bad because, again, they want to be re-elected. If the people don't care or occasionally even support the crackdown (eg there's usually no sympathy whatsoever for people blocking traffic no matter what the cause is), then they will escalate until the protestors finally have had enough and either switch tactics or give up
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Jun 25, 2022 20:39
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Rigel posted:They usually just always start with that by default, and then see what happens. If the voters don't like it, they will often tone it down and switch towards engaging and convincing ordinary people that actually the protestors are bad because, again, they want to be re-elected. Under your definition, what happens when the politicians don't care? IE they can just say "vote for us or you get the bad guys".
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Jun 25, 2022 20:50
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Public demonstrations have a much longer history than what we have seen in the US for the last 30 years. The idea can be to frighten power into considering what will happen if they don’t make some concessions. American thought has embraced a warped, neutered idea of what demonstrations are from the miseducation we receive about the civil rights movement and how it operated and won.
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Jun 25, 2022 20:53
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They need to pack the court and almost certainly can’t.
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Jun 25, 2022 20:53
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Fister Roboto posted:Under your definition, what happens when the politicians don't care? IE they can just say "vote for us or you get the bad guys". They either lose their election and are removed from office (or they are arrested for criming) or they aren't. With a few exceptions, you generally aren't going to convince those in power to change with words and persuasion independent and unrelated to electoral implications. They generally only care about staying in power, that is it, nothing else really matters. If the protest becomes popular and they see that opposing it might cost them votes, they may change into blue jeans and a T-shirt with the slogan and march with you, while making sure a TV camera is nearby to show the voters that they care.
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Jun 25, 2022 20:57
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Zero_Grade posted:The map being somewhat favorable is the only reason I have any hope for the Senate. For the swing races: My best guess at this point is that the Dems pick up PA and maybe WI; lose NV, AZ & GA, and the rest of the Senate seats remain the same. Civiqs currently has AZ's approval of Biden as 28-62  ; NV as 32-57; GA as 28-59; and WI as 36-55. PA is 33-55, but the Fetman's lead is p. strong in current polling, while the other states have the Dem Senate candidate polling at ties, at best.Best case scenario I see is a wash, which means that co-presidents Manchin & Sinema still block anything of value. I don't see inflation/economic metrics getting better before November, and I don't see abortion moving the needle that much, given the polling we've discussed upthread. Things (and polls) could still change, but time's running out for an election a little more than four months from now.
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Jun 25, 2022 20:59
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Rigel posted:They either lose their election and are removed from office (or they are arrested for criming) or they aren't. If, as you say, all they care about is staying in power, then we need to hit them where it hurts and withhold our votes from the Democrats. If they continue to say "vote for us or you get the bad guys" then we should not vote for them.
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Jun 25, 2022 21:03
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Cimber posted:Well, the problem for the democrats is the congressional maps are stacked so heavily against them via gerrymandering that they need an inherit +5 swing to break even. That and, ya know, not delivering on campaign promises and continually moving to the right for the last 50 years.
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Jun 25, 2022 21:10
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theCalamity posted:If, as you say, all they care about is staying in power, then we need to hit them where it hurts and withhold our votes from the Democrats. If they continue to say "vote for us or you get the bad guys" then we should not vote for them.
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Jun 25, 2022 21:11
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Rigel posted:They either lose their election and are removed from office (or they are arrested for criming) or they aren't. But under your definition, them losing their election is bad for us! We have to vote for them no matter what! Unless you're suggesting that we should withhold our votes if they're not satisfactory?
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Jun 25, 2022 21:18
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Grouchio posted:Go ahead! Throw your vote away to the fascists who will beat them from your lack of vote! Again, what are the Dems going to do? What is their plan? Are they going to continue to support anti-choice Democrats? Are they going to end the filibuster? Are they going to support Democrats who want to end the filibuster? All we've seen so far from the Democratic leadership is "vote harder and donate to us" Why haven't they codified Roe in the intervening 50 years? Abortion rights have been under attack for the last five decades and the number of abortion clinics in red states have dwindled, but even as they saw that happening, the Dems did absolutely nothing to codify Roe. Nancy Pelosi posted:The Democratic Party should not impose support for abortion rights as a litmus test on its candidates, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Tuesday, because it needs a broad and inclusive agenda to win back the socially conservative voters who helped elect President Trump. Is that someone we need to vote for? quote:On Tuesday, she went further, arguing that the Democrats cannot afford to enforce an ideological test on the abortion issue. This is the leader of the House saying that she is willing to throw us under the bus if it means that they can get into power/stay in power. Why should I vote for someone like her? theCalamity fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 21:21
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Fister Roboto posted:But under your definition, them losing their election is bad for us! We have to vote for them no matter what! Unless you're suggesting that we should withhold our votes if they're not satisfactory? personally i think people should not vote for lovely candidates and should vote for candidates that are neutral-good I would also question who tf was voting for lovely candidates before this? Is that a thing people here do? Bar Ran Dun posted:They need to pack the court and almost certainly can’t. yeah
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Jun 25, 2022 21:24
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I AM GRANDO posted:Public demonstrations have a much longer history than what we have seen in the US for the last 30 years. The idea can be to frighten power into considering what will happen if they don’t make some concessions. American thought has embraced a warped, neutered idea of what demonstrations are from the miseducation we receive about the civil rights movement and how it operated and won. Yeah without that unspoken "or else" the ruling class typically just watches the cops lob tear gas into the crowd and laughs
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Jun 25, 2022 21:32
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I'm just flabbergasted that someone here thinks that the whole point of mass demonstrations is to get people to vote. Guess what: if you've got a mass of people, you already have enough people to vote!
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Jun 25, 2022 21:35
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Fister Roboto posted:I'm just flabbergasted that someone here thinks that the whole point of mass demonstrations is to get people to vote. Guess what: if you've got a mass of people, you already have enough people to vote! It pretty unambiguously is about voting at a certain point. More precisely it's about taking, holding, and ultimately using political power, which generally requires elections and candidates and voting whether we're talking about present day or after some hypothetical left wing revolution. You'd still going to be voting then, too. Transforming street-movements into political power has historically been one of the big sticking points for aspiring political factions. Left wing groups in particular really struggle here for reasons ranging from the green party's desire to not deal with national politics (a desire that led to multiple splits), to anarchists eschewing the level of organization necessary for their goals. Conversely a lot of marxists feel that nothing will change by voting... so they tend to not convert their movements into political power very effectively, at least in the last couple decades. Like getting abortion rights codified in law and abortions themselves performed by licensed, state regulated providers is fundamentally a political goal in terms of how it can be accomplished. For better or for worse, mutual aid and unions will do basically nothing to get the country legal, regulated abortions. (with a small caveat here that unions can push for medically necessary travel compensation as a key part health care bargaining, which would be unambiguously good, but also that only can cover the ~10% of americans that are in unions and additionally it is still at the whim of national laws concerning abortion).
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Jun 25, 2022 21:45
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Like he's less popular, but that framing you used is wilfully ignoring the bigger picture. Black voters are the core dem constituency more than anything else. I'm not denying that black voters are the core Dem constituency; of course they are. My point is that the Democrats have badly dropped the ball on outreach among non-white eligible voters overall over the past two presidential election cycles. The percentage of non-white voters who turned out declined a bit in 2012, dropped significantly in 2016, and then recovered in 2020 but still lagged badly behind white turnout. There are a number of reasons why the Dems did much worse than expected among Latino voters in 2020 (as well as numerous reasons for why treating them as a monolithic group is laughably wrong-headed, of course), but the lack of an outreach strategy was certainly a big part of it. Latino activists and campaign staffers were warning about it throughout the campaign. I don't see much evidence that they've done all that much to turn this around for the midterms, but it's possible I've missed a thing or two. I hope for the Dems' sake that I have missed something, because they're going to need absolutely every voter in their broader coalition to turn out for them in November or they're screwed. The biggest threat to their majority in Congress isn't voters turning out for the Republicans; it's voters just not turning out at all. Majorian fucked around with this message at 21:49 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 21:46
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Boiling it down to the most basic level a mass protest is the message of "Hey, there's (x amount) of us and you're just some idiot in a big house. This scenario has the potential to go extremely badly for you." Of course decades of propaganda obsfucated that until it became "Everyone stands outside the big house for a while, respectfully, before saluting our troops and the flag and going home."
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Jun 25, 2022 21:46
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Herstory Begins Now posted:It pretty unambiguously is about voting at a certain point. More precisely it's about taking, holding, and ultimately using political power, which generally requires elections and candidates and voting whether we're talking about present day or after some hypothetical left wing revolution. You'd still going to be voting then, too. Transforming street-movements into political power has historically been one of the big sticking points for aspiring political factions. Left wing groups in particular really struggle here for reasons ranging from the green party's desire to not deal with national politics (a desire that led to multiple splits), to anarchists eschewing the level of organization necessary for their goals. Conversely a lot of marxists feel that nothing will change by voting... so they tend to not convert their movements into political power very effectively, at least in the last couple decades. Yes but convincing people to vote is not the sole purpose of demonstrations which is what Rigel seems to be arguing. I already explained what I think the purpose of demonstrations is, and it's to demonstrate that there is a large number of loud and angry people who will not stop being loud and angry until their demands are met. If their demands are met by voting, then yeah, that's great. But very often they are not, or they are met by some other means. Fister Roboto fucked around with this message at 22:00 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 21:57
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Bar Ran Dun posted:They need to pack the court and almost certainly can’t. I doubt they'll do the right thing, but expanding the Supreme Court is a simple majority vote.
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Jun 25, 2022 22:06
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Grouchio posted:Go ahead! Throw your vote away to the fascists who will beat them from your lack of vote! And what has the anti fascist party done for us other than let the fascist party continue to dismantle this country?
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Jun 25, 2022 22:13
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FlapYoJacks posted:And what has the anti fascist party done for us other than let the fascist party continue to dismantle this country?
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Jun 25, 2022 22:21
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Have Some Flowers! posted:Again you can always compare how things are going in red states vs blue states to see what the faster track to fascism looks like. The complete defeat of the democratic party could and would be worse than where we are now, and there are still many programs and policies that are worth defending, even if it's a losing fight for now. Let’s look at California where I live. Rent is astronomical with no relief in sight Gas is more expensive than any other state in the continental US The state burns down all year long now Our response to COVID was horrendous. Homelessness is so bad there are literally Hoovervilles. It’s not terribly much different than Boise (where I used to live.)
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Jun 25, 2022 22:24
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George Floyd was killed by a cop in a blue city in a blue state.
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Jun 25, 2022 22:29
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Not to get all "decadent westerners" but lmao at politics-addict americans acting like it's imminent or ongoing. This year in my wife's home country, there was a revolt against 30 years of right-wing dictatorship that ended with live rounds, russian contractors for the government, and hundreds of corpses. Still no civil war. Consider what risking your life, your loved ones lives, your city, actually entails. Our protests are still appalled by tear gas. We can't conceive of worse cops or prisons that what we've got. Most people have never seen a corpse. American Exceptionalism.txt Things are nowhere near civil war. People far more desperate than the american working class still aren't willing to fight civil wars. Indeed US people have been claiming imminent civil war since 1876, and it's been about as true as Most Important Election Ever.
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Jun 25, 2022 22:30
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Have Some Flowers! posted:Again you can always compare how things are going in red states vs blue states to see what the faster track to fascism looks like. The complete defeat of the democratic party could and would be worse than where we are now, and there are still many programs and policies that are worth defending, even if it's a losing fight for now. In cities controlled by Democrats in states controlled by Democrats, we have seen police budgets rise to astronomical heights and seen them brutalize the people they are there to protect. In New York, we have seen them search mostly black and brown people more than white people, even when it supposedly ended. And despite the amount of stop and frisks have dropped in recent years, they still disproportionately target black and brown people over white people. In New York! Also in New York, we saw the cops threaten a Mayor's daughter and nothing happened. People tend to forget that BLM started while Obama was president. At the border, we have Kamala telling refugees not to come to America. We have let white refugees from Ukraine come in, but black and brown refugees have to stay because of the racist Title 42. Thankfully, Biden got rid of it, but Democrats are trying to get it reinstated. how many times have the Democrats capitulated to fascist dogwhistles regarding the border? Too many by my count. And from the lips of Pelosi herself, as recently as 2017, she thinks that the Democrats shouldn't make ideological causes the focus of the party so that they can get more conservative votes. The Democrats are not going to fight fascism. They will welcome it albeit their own version of it. They engage in blue fascism. theCalamity fucked around with this message at 22:43 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 22:35
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FlapYoJacks posted:Let’s look at California where I live. Abortion rights and LGBT rights are not going to be restricted in CA. They may well be in Idaho. Edit: the highest gas prices are also, in part, because CA has stricter environmental regulations than other states. DeadlyMuffin fucked around with this message at 22:54 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 22:51
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DeadlyMuffin posted:Abortion rights and LGBT rights are not going to be restricted in CA. They may well be in Idaho. Well, if you can afford them.
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Jun 25, 2022 22:53
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I AM GRANDO posted:Well, if you can afford them. Abortions and LGBT rights in CA are only for those who can afford them?
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Jun 25, 2022 22:55
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Fister Roboto posted:If their demands are met by voting, then yeah, that's great. But very often they are not, or they are met by some other means. If their demands are not going to be met by voting, then that means they are unpopular, the politicians and people in power will not fear or care about them at all, and there will not be ends met by "other means". Your "other means" (unless you are talking a serious going for broke violent revolution) would result in a lot of people being chased by the FBI and going to prison for a long time, sharing cells with the 1/6 insurrection idiots. I'm beginning to realize that some people here actually think they can intimidate the people in power to give them what they want outside of elections. no, they won't fear you and they won't care. That is naive.
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Jun 25, 2022 23:01
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DeadlyMuffin posted:Abortion rights and LGBT rights are not going to be restricted in CA. They may well be in Idaho. this is a hilarious sentiment considering it took the supreme court ruling on hollingsworth v perry to fully overturn a statewide ban on my right to marry that was still standing less than a decade ago and that my fellow californians voted for in the same election they voted for progressive hero barack obama i'm not so shortsighted that i believe it couldn't happen again to me or more realistically any one of my friends who have it worse than me who everyone wants to gently caress over
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Jun 25, 2022 23:02
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DeadlyMuffin posted:Abortion rights and LGBT rights are not going to be restricted in CA. They may well be in Idaho. Good job ignoring all but one point. Also, proposition 8 was a thing.
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Jun 25, 2022 23:05
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Rigel posted:
This is doomerism. All of recorded history is full of examples of people forcing concessions from their government through mass action. You are being willfully blind to it by restricting your imagination to a simple binary of "vote or violence". You still haven't answered my question what you would plan to do if voting wasn't an option. And that may be something to think about in a more practical sense because it might actually happen in our lifetimes.
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Jun 25, 2022 23:17
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typhy posted:this is a hilarious sentiment considering it took the supreme court ruling on hollingsworth v perry to fully overturn a statewide ban on my right to marry that was still standing less than a decade ago and that my fellow californians voted for in the same election they voted for progressive hero barack obama I don't disagree with any of this, and I'm not saying "it can't happen here" but arguing that there's no difference between Idaho and California in this respect is baffling. I'm trans. In CA I have some protection. The Idaho House of Representatives passed legislation to make it a crime punishable by life in prison for a parent to seek out gender-affirming health care for their transgender child. CA is hilariously far from perfect, but don't tell me I'm it's the same as Idaho. FlapYoJacks posted:Good job ignoring all but one point. Also, proposition 8 was a thing. I remember. I was there. What's your point?
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Jun 25, 2022 23:17
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DeadlyMuffin posted:I'm not saying "it can't happen here" you literally textually said this, just so we're clear
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Jun 25, 2022 23:18
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Fister Roboto posted:This is doomerism. All of recorded history is full of examples of people forcing concessions from their government through mass action. You are being willfully blind to it by restricting your imagination to a simple binary of "vote or violence". People weren't trying to oppose a mass surveillance state with shitloads of cops and soldiers armed to the teeth with modern tools and weaponry for most of recorded history
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Jun 25, 2022 23:20
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typhy posted:you literally textually said this, just so we're clear Okay, it's very unlikely to happen here, and I don't think it will. It's impossible to say it cannot, anything is possible. If it does happen in CA, it will happen far later than in red states like Idaho, giving me plenty of warning to get out of the country, or off myself. Are you happy? DeadlyMuffin fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Jun 25, 2022 |
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Jun 25, 2022 23:21
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I just wish women had the same rights as a gun.
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Jun 25, 2022 23:23
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Fister Roboto posted:You still haven't answered my question what you would plan to do if voting wasn't an option. And that may be something to think about in a more practical sense because it might actually happen in our lifetimes. Leave. If I can't leave, I keep my head down, stay out of trouble, and work on whatever is preventing me from leaving. If a real no joke revolution is forming that seems to have a chance of success, maybe I try to help that along instead of leaving, but we seem to be avoiding that in this discussion and are instead focusing on the idea that we can somehow intimidate those in power who we can't remove through the force of angry words and vandalism. I'm not wasting my time or risking my freedom with that in your hypothetical hell nation.
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Jun 25, 2022 23:24
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ellasmith posted:I just wish women had the same rights as a gun. The right to be owned and carried by anyone anywhere?
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Jun 25, 2022 23:24
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Rigel posted:Leave. If I can't leave, I keep my head down, stay out of trouble, and work on whatever is preventing me from leaving.
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Jun 25, 2022 23:26
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