endlessmonotony posted:

It won't accumulate enough to cause extinction.

lollontee is just plain right here. This mess will have millions of survivors, and the Chinese will have a massive advantage in rebuilding. They will experience horrifying amounts of death as a result of climate change. No contradiction.

Undecided Moderate posted:

And if not, the U.S will absolutely go to war with them so the elites can maintain their standard of living for bit longer, lol

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

I literally never said permafrost mercury would cause extinction. They claimed that permafrost would be a rich source for agriculture. I showed that it wouldn't. Work on your reading comprehension.

The extinction forcing factors are things like carbonate undersaturation in the ocean, widespread anoxia and euxinia, global starvation from a bottom-up trophic cascade of biomass loss, and an ever mounting disease burden as the global ecology shifts toward favoring single celled or other microorganisms.

When you take the continued survival of mammals for granted in your hypotheticals you just show that you don't have any actual understanding of how our biosphere operates as a system.

lollontee posted:

i guess we'll see about that, but nevertheless you ought not evaluate the chinese communists ability to react and overcome immense challenges, on the same standards as you would for western nations anyway

endlessmonotony posted:

The idea that this will kill all of humanity is nothing but childish fantasy to pretend there's equal outcomes. Quit it.

Car Hater posted:

We are doing our active best to end oxygen-breathing life through the production and degradation of plastic and vulcanized rubber. Any "climate-saving" technology relies heavily on plastic and rubber. Saving humans is the miracle stretch goal at this point, we should be focused on saving any mammals at all, which, actually, China does have the power to force action on! They're one of maybe 9 countries that do.

endlessmonotony posted:

We're not going to save the climate.

This doesn't mean humans go extinct, it means the habitable zones narrow and our food production capacity drops.

Car Hater posted:

We are doing our active best to end oxygen-breathing life through the production and degradation of plastic and vulcanized rubber. Any "climate-saving" technology relies heavily on plastic and rubber. Saving humans is the miracle stretch goal at this point, we should be focused on saving any mammals at all, which, actually, China does have the power to force action on! They're one of maybe 9 countries that do.

Car Hater posted:

Oh well if we don't check the climate heating then yes, we're going to a hothouse earth where mammals over 5kg or so won't be able to perspire effectively.

Idk are you going with the "humanity will endure no matter how tough things are, even if we have to live in subterranean caves and eat lichen"?

endlessmonotony posted:

We know what happened the last time we had this much carbon in the atmosphere and it wasn't hothouse earth.

It would make tropical and subtropical regions uninhabitable and unable to grow food.

This bullshit about everyone being dead is just another flavor of cope.

IAMKOREA posted:

I'm pretty over humans and large mammals tbh

E: well, pity for the elephants

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

The end-Permian would like to have a word with you lol. Also there you go again only looking at one factor, GHG load in the atmosphere, instead of all of the novel stressors we're adding. Your brain is mush. Must be the CO2 in the air.

quote:

Among the ocean acidification events hitherto identified in Earth’s history, the PETM may be the closest analog for the future. Yet the evidence suggests that the carbon input rate from human activities may exceed that during the PETM. Thus, it seems that the ocean acidification event that humans may cause over the next few centuries is unprecedented in the geologic past for which sufficiently well-preserved paleorecords are available.

Lpzie posted:

humanity will colonize the stars, with capitalism in tact.

lollontee posted:

"novel stressors"?

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

B b b but we've seen this level of CO2 in the atmosphere before.

(from an excellent paper, https://eagle.fish.washington.edu/oyster/Dissertation/dissertation%20drafts/articles/zeebe%202011.pdf)

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

from: https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries/the-nine-planetary-boundaries.html

Here is a small, incomplete list of things that could go in the novel entities section. I'm sure others can add more: PFAS/PFOS, microplastics, fertility crashes, global vitamin deficiencies (see: thiamine), global disease burden

lollontee posted:

do you have a graph that isn't psychotic? also, plastic isn't going to kill life on earth, nor are... lack of vitamins

Ruggan posted:

At the very least it's clear that we as a species are far into the "overshoot" territory of the Earth's carrying capacity.

endlessmonotony posted:

We know what happened the last time we had this much carbon in the atmosphere and it wasn't hothouse earth.

It would make tropical and subtropical regions uninhabitable and unable to grow food.

This bullshit about everyone being dead is just another flavor of cope.

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

Sorry you're too stupid to read a radar graph.

quote:

Lennart Balk, an environmental biochemist at Stockholm University, witnessed a dramatically different scene when he visited Swedish coastal colonies during a 5-year period starting in 2004. Many birds couldn’t fly. Others were completely paralyzed. Birds also weren’t eating and had difficulty breathing. Thousands of birds were suffering and dying from this paralytic disease, says Balk. “We went into the bird colonies, and we were shocked. You could see something was really wrong. It was a scary situation for this time of year,” he says.

Based on his past work documenting a similar crisis in several Baltic Sea fish species, Balk suspected that the birds’ disease was caused by a thiamine (vitamin B1) deficiency. Thiamine is required for critical metabolic processes, such as energy production and proper functioning of the nervous system. This essential micronutrient is produced mainly by plants, including phytoplankton, bacteria, and fungi; people and animals must acquire it through their food.

Scenes such as the one in Sweden, seen again and again in recent years in a variety of species in Europe and North America, have Balk and other researchers worried that something in the environment is causing widespread thiamine shortages, which could explain these specific episodes—as well as possibly larger-scale wildlife population collapses. “This could be a very serious source of mortality,” says Stephen Riley, a fish ecologist at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Great Lakes Science Center in Ann Arbor, MI.

Researchers generally agree that the crises in seabirds, fish, and other marine species have thiamine deficiencies in common. But much remains unknown. Is a thiamine shortage the root cause of the problem in every case? What might be driving such a widespread environmental vitamin deficiency? As instances of sick and dying wildlife continue to arise, though, a sense of urgency is building among researchers trying to figure out what’s going on. “I don’t think we agree in our assessment of it other than that it is a real issue,” says Clifford Kraft, a freshwater ecologist at Cornell University in Ithaca, NY.

endlessmonotony posted:

I can actually read that graph, it basically says "here's a lot of poo poo we don't know".

To get to the conclusion presented from there, you need to add "therefore all of that poo poo will absolutely ruin us".

quote:

Still another group at risk are people who eat a lot of fermented fish, notes Riley, because the fish are rich in the enzyme thiaminase, which breaks down thiamine. In fact, a diet of thiaminase-rich fish, it turned out, was the culprit in the case of thiamine-deficient Great Lakes trout and salmon.

In 2005, a team including Don Tillitt, an environmental toxicologist at the USGS, reported that salmon and lake trout were eating mainly alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus), an invasive species of fish that is rich in thiaminase. Tillitt and his colleagues fed 17 female lake trout, from a hatchery in Michigan, a diet consisting of only alewives. The team found that the fish laid eggs with a total thiamine concentration of approximately 2.5 nmol/g. In contrast, 13 fish were fed only bloaters (Coregonus hoyi)—prey fish lacking thiaminase—laid eggs with approximately 12 nmol/g. The researchers saw that nearly 20% of the young fish died when their mothers were fed only alewives. But all the young survived when their mothers were fed bloaters (6, 7).
“Thiamine deficiency almost completely stopped all reproduction in some fish species in the Great Lakes, causing huge population declines,” says Tillitt.

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

What does E/MSY stand for

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

What does E/MSY stand for

endlessmonotony posted:

How fast poo poo is going extinct.

Which does nothing to prove your point.

quote:

Global declines in insects have sparked wide interest among scientists, politicians, and the general public. Loss of insect diversity and abundance is expected to provoke cascading effects on food webs and to jeopardize ecosystem services. Our understanding of the extent and underlying causes of this decline is based on the abundance of single species or taxonomic groups only, rather than changes in insect biomass which is more relevant for ecological functioning. Here, we used a standardized protocol to measure total insect biomass using Malaise traps, deployed over 27 years in 63 nature protection areas in Germany (96 unique location-year combinations) to infer on the status and trend of local entomofauna. Our analysis estimates a seasonal decline of 76%, and mid-summer decline of 82% in flying insect biomass over the 27 years of study. We show that this decline is apparent regardless of habitat type, while changes in weather, land use, and habitat characteristics cannot explain this overall decline. This yet unrecognized loss of insect biomass must be taken into account in evaluating declines in abundance of species depending on insects as a food source, and ecosystem functioning in the European landscape.

lollontee posted:

surely, the apocalypse is just around the corner, and therefore my nihilism is justified

lollontee posted:

quote:

So far, no such clear explanation has emerged for the other cases of thiamine-deficient wildlife that researchers have documented, even as the tally grows. In 2016, Balk showed that several other species across northern Europe, including blue mussels (Mytilus sp.) and eels (Anguilla sp.), were also suffering from the deficiency. He further analyzed correlations between deficiency-induced biochemical changes and long-term health effects, such as increased parasite infection and impaired growth

WampaLord posted:

sticking your head in the sand is just nihilism with extra steps

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

you're too loving dumb to read the subsequent paragraph: