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Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

Even if Biden refuses to bow out, there will absolutely be a Ted Kennedy type of challenge from someone, unless Biden somehow miraculously becomes a lot more popular.

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Nameless Pete
May 8, 2007

Get a load of those...
Zuckerberg has probably thought about it.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Rigel posted:

Even if Biden refuses to bow out, there will absolutely be a Ted Kennedy type of challenge from someone, unless Biden somehow miraculously becomes a lot more popular.

I don't think there will be, I don't think there's anyone who could feasibly stand a chance at challenging the current sitting President, it hasn't happened for either party in decades and wouldn't get any money or support from the establishment; which would be critical for such a venture to have a chance.

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

Raenir Salazar posted:

I don't think there will be, I don't think there's anyone who could feasibly stand a chance at challenging the current sitting President, it hasn't happened for either party in decades and wouldn't get any money or support from the establishment; which would be critical for such a venture to have a chance.

Ted Kennedy's challenge failed too, but Carter was very unpopular and looked doomed to lose so a large portion of the Dems figured they had to at least try. Biden is looking to be in an even weaker position.

small butter
Oct 8, 2011

Chemtrailologist posted:

If Clinton won in 2016 the same thing would still be happening.

-Dems don't win the Senate
-GOP hold Scalia's seat open
-Kennedy puts off retirement
-2018 Senate map is a bloodbath for Dems. GOP picks up MT, WV, OH at least and holds NV, AR
-RGB still dies, seat held open for remainder of Clinton's term
-Clinton loses re-election
-At some point Kennedy decides to retire
-GOP President has 3 open seats and Breyer can't retire

A lot of assumptions there. Had Clinton won, there's a shot for the Senate, and even if she lost, unlikely that Scalia's seat would remain open for all that time. Unlikely that Clinton would have lost reelection, too. RBG would have still died and it would have been a 5-4 liberal court, don't kid yourself.

I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

small butter posted:

A lot of assumptions there. Had Clinton won, there's a shot for the Senate, and even if she lost, unlikely that Scalia's seat would remain open for all that time. Unlikely that Clinton would have lost reelection, too. RBG would have still died and it would have been a 5-4 liberal court, don't kid yourself.

Clinton was incredibly unpopular. With the right-wing noise machine going full-speed for three years, covid would have been even worse. She almost certainly would have lost re-election. Biden barely won against a very unpopular opponent, and he was viewed much more favorably than Clinton had been.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!
idk that arguing hypothetical alternate histories is terribly productive

small butter
Oct 8, 2011

I AM GRANDO posted:

Clinton was incredibly unpopular. With the right-wing noise machine going full-speed for three years, covid would have been even worse. She almost certainly would have lost re-election. Biden barely won against a very unpopular opponent, and he was viewed much more favorably than Clinton had been.

Had Clinton won, she could have easily become more popular - don't forget the "best economy ever" due to Trump riding on Obama's coattails. Regarding Covid, the people who voted hardest for Trump in 2020 were getting hit the hardest with Covid. They simply did not care. Clinton would have undoubtedly handled Covid better. And Trump would have probably ran in 2020, during an unprecedented pandemic, making the libs vote even harder in 2020. Don't forget that Trump won during a relatively "peaceful" time, letting people take a chance on the clown.

Chemtrailologist
Jul 8, 2007

small butter posted:

A lot of assumptions there. Had Clinton won, there's a shot for the Senate, and even if she lost, unlikely that Scalia's seat would remain open for all that time. Unlikely that Clinton would have lost reelection, too. RBG would have still died and it would have been a 5-4 liberal court, don't kid yourself.

Clinton winning and Dems winning the senate are two different things. They needed WI and PA, Clinton ran ahead of both candidates. If she barely won the election, its still not enough to get the senate.

During the race in 2016, even some "moderate" like John McCain publicly stated that they wouldn't seat a SCOTUS nominee from Clinton. Do you really see McConnell doing the right thing and allowing a 5-4 liberal court? Why would he do that?

Clinton was unpopular, she would be responsible for Covid and whoever she was up against in 2020 likely wouldn't have had the baggage that Trump did.

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

More in the Saying The Quiet Part Out Loud department
https://twitter.com/tulsaworld/status/1540437111261855747

Have Some Flowers!
Aug 27, 2004
Hey, I've got Navigate...

theCalamity posted:

You assume that I vote for the democrats. I don't outside of certain candidates. You also assume that my vote holds the same amount of power as theirs. You also assume to know the value of my vote despite not knowing what state I live in. It's a red state.
I should have said "what the value of a vote" is rather than yours specifically. Look I agree with you that not all votes are equal. Given that everyone's sharing their dissatisfaction with the Dem party, I'm talking about the value of electoral politics in general more than our individual circumstances.

Also when I said "flay democratic leadership", I meant that we (democrats or progressives or leftists or whoever has a stake in surviving the republican party) would be frustrated, disappointed, angry, demoralized at democratic leadership doing performative bullshit or getting outfoxed at every turn because of poor strategic choices, or overvaluing stuff like decorum and their personal relationships with fascists. So I would hope we hold ourselves to the same standards and not act out of performative spite, and instead act in a calculated, effective manner.

Assuming someone is in a state where their vote matters (and in many states in 2016 and 2020 it absolutely did), if there is another option than voting blue that doesn't immediately hand power over to Republicans, I'd certainly entertain it.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Fritz the Horse posted:

idk that arguing hypothetical alternate histories is terribly productive
Wait a second - these threads have all been in chorus about the impending destruction of american democracy ever since Trump took power (and before). Has much changed in that regard pre vs post-overturn?

And should that mean that I have no choice but to dictate my future as one of doom? I've had a burden complex for the longest time.

shades of eternity
Nov 9, 2013

Where kitties raise dragons in the world's largest mall.

Youth Decay posted:

More in the Saying The Quiet Part Out Loud department
https://twitter.com/tulsaworld/status/1540437111261855747

now let's give him one.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Grouchio posted:

Wait a second - these threads have all been in chorus about the impending destruction of american democracy ever since Trump took power (and before). Has much changed in that regard pre vs post-overturn?

And should that mean that I have no choice but to dictate my future as one of doom? I've had a burden complex for the longest time.

We're not doing that thing where you pose a series of questions to the thread seeking to assuage your anxiety. Yes, there's lots of good reasons to be anxious right now, but Grouchio-- please just take a break.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Youth Decay posted:

More in the Saying The Quiet Part Out Loud department
https://twitter.com/tulsaworld/status/1540437111261855747

Blessed Be The Fruit.

Seriously tell me how we’re not heading to this.

theCalamity
Oct 23, 2010

Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War

Have Some Flowers! posted:

Also when I said "flay democratic leadership", I meant that we (democrats or progressives or leftists or whoever has a stake in surviving the republican party) would be frustrated, disappointed, angry, demoralized at democratic leadership doing performative bullshit or getting outfoxed at every turn because of poor strategic choices, or overvaluing stuff like decorum and their personal relationships with fascists. So I would hope we hold ourselves to the same standards and not act out of performative spite, and instead act in a calculated, effective manner.

We shouldn't hold ourselves to the same standard though. They are the ones in power. They have more influence than us. People elected the Democrats into power and the Democrats are doing nothing with it. So, no, we shouldn't be held to the same standards.

Additionally, just being frustrated, disappointed, and angry is performative if you keep voting for the party that either does nothing.

What is it that you can do to push the Democrats left? How are you going to stop the Democrats from enabling the GOP in their efforts? How are you going to stop the party from putting ideological causes like abortion rights being put on the backburner? Please, I want to know what you plan on doing if the Democrats keep doing the things you don't want them to do.

small butter
Oct 8, 2011

Chemtrailologist posted:

Clinton winning and Dems winning the senate are two different things. They needed WI and PA, Clinton ran ahead of both candidates. If she barely won the election, its still not enough to get the senate.

During the race in 2016, even some "moderate" like John McCain publicly stated that they wouldn't seat a SCOTUS nominee from Clinton. Do you really see McConnell doing the right thing and allowing a 5-4 liberal court? Why would he do that?

Clinton was unpopular, she would be responsible for Covid and whoever she was up against in 2020 likely wouldn't have had the baggage that Trump did.

Not sure how her performing better than she did (because in this scenario she wins the presidency) would not have been enough to win the Senate. In the scenario that she wins, the Senate would be an excellent shot. Not a given, but I think likely.

IIRC, McCain walked that back. Even if he didn't, having a vacant spot for 5 years is untenable. Even the Rs would have buckled. I suspect we may have even seen SC resignations or pressure from the SC on the Rs to stop the mockery of the court.

Don't forget that the whole R resistance to masking and shutting down was to do Trump's bidding during an election year in which the economy was at risk. They would have happily shut down their states if it meant "hurting" Clinton, which would have actually helped her. Democratic cities and states were the first to shut down and the last to open up and lift restrictions - no way that the pandemic would not have been handled better if Rs would have followed D states and Clinton would have been at the helm with a mask mandate in place since April 2020.

But what are we even arguing - the butterfly effect of Clinton winning may have resulted in Covid not jumping to humans. Maybe the first guy to get sick wouldn't have been there. Maybe the bat would have died before spreading Covid.

small butter fucked around with this message at 05:09 on Jun 26, 2022

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

FlapYoJacks posted:

Let’s look at California where I live.

Rent is astronomical with no relief in sight
Gas is more expensive than any other state in the continental US
The state burns down all year long now
Our response to COVID was horrendous.
Homelessness is so bad there are literally Hoovervilles.

It’s not terribly much different than Boise (where I used to live.)

California is 39th in COVID deaths per. million, 2,337.

#1? Mississippi with 4,202.

Florida? 3,519

So I would not call that "horrendous."

The rest? Yeah.

The Homeless situation shows that even liberals have NIMBY. Also one thing else, the level of grift in government is off the charts. Look at what LA spends per person when they do a low income housing project.

quote:

A $1.2 billion program intended to quickly build housing for Los Angeles’ sprawling homeless population is moving too slowly while costs are spiking, with one project under development expected to hit as much as $837,000 for each housing unit, a city audit disclosed Wednesday.

https://ktla.com/news/los-angeles-is-spending-up-to-837000-to-house-a-single-homeless-person/

marshmonkey
Dec 5, 2003

I was sick of looking
at your stupid avatar
so
have a cool cat instead.

:v:
Switchblade Switcharoo
What in the world is Cornyn trying to point out in this tweet?

https://twitter.com/johncornyn/status/1540689961040482306?s=21&t=hgoawLd-aC_jeeY-z1TTRg

I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006


That the dog whistle is no longer necessary.

theCalamity
Oct 23, 2010

Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War

VideoGameVet posted:

California is 39th in COVID deaths per. million, 2,337.

#1? Mississippi with 4,202.

Florida? 3,519

So I would not call that "horrendous."

The rest? Yeah.

The Homeless situation shows that even liberals have NIMBY. Also one thing else, the level of grift in government is off the charts. Look at what LA spends per person when they do a low income housing project.

https://ktla.com/news/los-angeles-is-spending-up-to-837000-to-house-a-single-homeless-person/

I would call it horrendous, especially when somewhere like China (4 per million) and Vietnam (811 per million) have drastically less COVID deaths. Let's not forget that a lot of Democrats were itching to open back up as soon as the vaccines dropped and stayed open while Omicron and Delta killed a bunch of people.

edit: https://twitter.com/BTnewsroom/status/1540762413464580096?s=20&t=rsMnvH7D4Jfm7PzDhsYdVA

Hundreds of people are shouting "voting blue is not enough". Democrats should take heed of this. But I know that leadership won't.

theCalamity fucked around with this message at 06:01 on Jun 26, 2022

marshmonkey
Dec 5, 2003

I was sick of looking
at your stupid avatar
so
have a cool cat instead.

:v:
Switchblade Switcharoo

I AM GRANDO posted:

That the dog whistle is no longer necessary.

From going though the replies and things he retweeted afterwards it sounds more like he thinks this is a civil rights victory for fetuses on the level of the cases he mentioned. But yeesh.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

theCalamity posted:

I would call it horrendous, especially when somewhere like China (4 per million) and Vietnam (811 per million) have drastically less COVID deaths. Let's not forget that a lot of Democrats were itching to open back up as soon as the vaccines dropped and stayed open while Omicron and Delta killed a bunch of people.

This line of discussion was comparing blue states to red states in the US, specifically California to Idaho.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

A big flaming stink posted:

Honestly starting to wonder when Biden starts becoming in danger of being primaried at this point

Biden will not run for reelection.

David Axelrod is on the record saying he shouldn't and lots of others are now saying so off the record & on background. I doubt that Obama wants his legacy (further) marred by a failed Biden presidency staffed with Obama-era retreads.

Biden's polling has been dropping every week for almost a year now, and it's in Jimmy Carter territory if not worse. Pelosi openly defied his gas card idea, inflation & shortages have no end in sight, and candidates aren't asking him to come campaign with them this year.

He looks frail & doddering, and can't get through a five-minute speech without some faux pas. He's not improving with time, bc when you're that old things get worse over time, not better. He's the wrong guy for the job at this particular moment in time, and clearly not up to it, and the people who forced him on us now know that.

But the minute he announces that, he's got a lame-duck presidency & wannabes nipping at his heels, so I don't expect we'll hear anything till at least early next year.

theCalamity
Oct 23, 2010

Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War

Fritz the Horse posted:

This line of discussion was comparing blue states to red states in the US, specifically California to Idaho.

You're right. Compared to Idaho, it's not horrendous. But I feel that it loses perspective. California and Idaho and every other state in America is horrendous when it comes to COVID. Saying that California is better than Idaho is letting Democrats off of the hook with their response.

ellasmith
Sep 29, 2021

by Azathoth
Joe Biden is the best president of my lifetime.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

Willa Rogers posted:

Biden will not run for reelection.

David Axelrod is on the record saying he shouldn't and lots of others are now saying so off the record & on background. I doubt that Obama wants his legacy (further) marred by a failed Biden presidency staffed with Obama-era retreads.

Biden's polling has been dropping every week for almost a year now, and it's in Jimmy Carter territory if not worse. Pelosi openly defied his gas card idea, inflation & shortages have no end in sight, and candidates aren't asking him to come campaign with them this year.

He looks frail & doddering, and can't get through a five-minute speech without some faux pas. He's not improving with time, bc when you're that old things get worse over time, not better. He's the wrong guy for the job at this particular moment in time, and clearly not up to it, and the people who forced him on us now know that.

But the minute he announces that, he's got a lame-duck presidency & wannabes nipping at his heels, so I don't expect we'll hear anything till at least early next year.

I thought they kind of waffled on this, I've seen both answers multiple times. I mean yes, you've outlined extremely good reasons why it would be an awful idea to run him again, but that hasn't stopped the DNC before.

I guess the main issue is that they don't really have anyone(that the establishment likes) to replace him. Buttigieg keeps screwing up his pushes and Harris is even worse at pretending to be human than the already-robotic Democratic lineup.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

I’m surprised in a good way that for some not online liberals I know this seems to be the final straw or near enough to abandon JUST VOTE BLUE. Like very formerly decorum brained people joking about the Kavanaugh plot.

Chemtrailologist
Jul 8, 2007

Obama's tweet pointed out that this recent decision upset 50 years of precedent. Cornyn is just making the point that just because a decision upsets precedent doesn't mean its automatically a bad one, which is correct.

The issue is that Cornyn's argument here fails to distinguish between good things (overturning Plessy) and bad things (overturning Roe)

Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

I’m surprised in a good way that for some not online liberals I know this seems to be the final straw or near enough to abandon JUST VOTE BLUE. Like very formerly decorum brained people joking about the Kavanaugh plot.

There always comes at point, with rational people at least, where you can't hold up the :decorum: anymore and the entire wall of bullshit you've internalized to justify the system comes crumbling down. Everyone goes through it at some point, some take it better than others.

I only had like 5 meltdowns about it, a modest amount.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

Since Biden may not actually run there’s a long shot chance that enough happens over the next year to scare the DNC to allow an actual progressive, or at least a liberal firebrand with enough balls to court pack popular enough that won’t lie down and isn’t completely owned by the donors class?

I don’t know who that would be. I can’t think of anyone besides like Fetterman and people at the state and local level since Warren isn’t competent enough, Bernie makes the centrists and donors too scared, and the rest are do nothing McKinsey approved empty suits.

Not likely but mass direct action and not absolutely refusing to vote for compromise candidates and only voting for the Dems that demonstrate a willingness to do anything this year actually makes that more possible.

-Blackadder-
Jan 2, 2007

Game....Blouses.
Whoops, hood slipped a bit there. You really never have to wait long with them.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1540852015693037568

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

theCalamity posted:

I would call it horrendous, especially when somewhere like China (4 per million) and Vietnam (811 per million) have drastically less COVID deaths. Let's not forget that a lot of Democrats were itching to open back up as soon as the vaccines dropped and stayed open while Omicron and Delta killed a bunch of people.


Oh the USA as a whole messed up. I'm just comparing states. The Feds deserve a lot of the blame. It may sound harsh but when the MAGA crowd when AntiVax I think the Feds basically gave up on trying to convince them. See that Reddit group we all know.

VideoGameVet fucked around with this message at 06:38 on Jun 26, 2022

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Since Biden may not actually run there’s a long shot chance that enough happens over the next year to scare the DNC to allow an actual progressive, or at least a liberal firebrand with enough balls to court pack popular enough that won’t lie down and isn’t completely owned by the donors class?

I don’t know who that would be. I can’t think of anyone besides like Fetterman and people at the state and local level since Warren isn’t competent enough, Bernie makes the centrists and donors too scared, and the rest are do nothing McKinsey approved empty suits.

Not likely but mass direct action and not absolutely refusing to vote for compromise candidates and only voting for the Dems that demonstrate a willingness to do anything this year actually makes that more possible.

Anyone that doesn't scare the centrists and donors is not going to solve any problems. I don't see any reason to believe the establishment isn't going to keep a stranglehold on power even if it chokes the life out of the party.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Anyone that doesn't scare the centrists and donors is not going to solve any problems. I don't see any reason to believe the establishment isn't going to keep a stranglehold on power even if it chokes the life out of the party.

Oh yeah probably, which is why we’ll have to work with a structure that isn’t the Dems to actually get anything done, but it’s a longshot immediate goal to make the liberals scared enough to comprise with rather than ignore the left and not flank the GOP from the right.

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Oh yeah probably, which is why we’ll have to work with a structure that isn’t the Dems to actually get anything done, but it’s a longshot immediate goal to make the liberals scared enough to comprise with rather than ignore the left and not flank the GOP from the right.

Unfortunately this is, suffice to say, not what happens historically when liberals are scared and forced to choose between leftists and fascists.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Unfortunately this is, suffice to say, not what happens historically when liberals are scared and forced to choose between leftists and fascists.

….yeah

I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Anyone that doesn't scare the centrists and donors is not going to solve any problems. I don't see any reason to believe the establishment isn't going to keep a stranglehold on power even if it chokes the life out of the party.

They’ve done an excellent job of crushing anyone who isn’t already part of the establishment, as seen in the average age of senate democrats. There’s a very shallow bench of established candidates, and they’re all as unpalatable as Harris and Pete.

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

I AM GRANDO posted:

They’ve done an excellent job of crushing anyone who isn’t already part of the establishment, as seen in the average age of senate democrats. There’s a very shallow bench of established candidates, and they’re all as unpalatable as Harris and Pete.

Came up before that the establishment has its youth wing too, and they have been waiting around for 30 years for literally any reward for their service. Joe Kennedy III I think was meant to be their rising star, and fuckin lol.

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whos that broooown
Dec 10, 2009

2024 Comeback Poster of the Year

ellasmith posted:

Joe Biden is the best president of my lifetime.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

lol at this weakass probe

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

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