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spacemang_spliff
Nov 29, 2014

wide pickle

ram dass in hell posted:

occurs to me now that one can be feckless but idk if i have ever heard someone described as fecked. Feckful? Feckable? Fecky?

Get fecked, democrats

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ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/06/29/democrats-adopt-game-theory-00043161


Politico posted:


Opinion | Why Are Democrats Letting Republicans Steamroll Them?

For too long, the GOP has busted norms with no consequences.

For a number of years now, Democrats and Republicans have been approaching national politics very differently from one another. This month’s stunning, norm-breaking, public-opinion-defying Supreme Court rulings are only the latest result. And if Democrats don’t change their behavior, the situation is only going to get worse for them.

The simplest way to summarize the situation is that Democrats value democratic norms over policy achievements, and Republicans feel the opposite.

We can see a number of examples of this in recent years, but one of the most jolting was when then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to allow hearings for President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee throughout 2016. While neither the Constitution nor the Senate’s rules explicitly forbade what McConnell did, it was a massive and deeply anti-democratic violation of the country’s norms.

Obama and his party combated it not with a norm violation of their own — such as a temporary (and legally dicey) recess appointment of a justice — but with reasonableness. Surely appointing a modest and moderate justice like Merrick Garland would lead public pressure to force McConnell to relent or would push voters to punish Republicans for their transgression. Neither happened. And the seat was filled by a Republican.

This is a pattern we’ve seen repeated ever since. Republicans attempt some unprecedented and shocking move; horrified Democrats respond by trying to be the adults in the room; and then the Democrats go unrewarded for it.

To be sure, a country is probably better off with one responsible party than with zero. But in important ways, this kind of asymmetry can be dangerous, making the government less and less representative of its people.

Now, time for some game theory.

In the game known as the prisoner’s dilemma, two players are competing against each other, and each has just two options — cooperate or defect. If they both cooperate, they both get a nice reward. However, if Player 1 defects while Player 2 cooperates, Player 1 gets an even bigger reward while Player 2 pays a penalty. (The reverse happens if Player 1 cooperates while Player 2 defects.) If both players defect, neither gets a reward nor pays a penalty. Thus, each player wants the other to cooperate, and both prefer jointly cooperating to both defecting. But since neither can trust the other to cooperate, the usual outcome is for both to defect, leading to no payoff for either player. (The ferryboat scene in The Dark Knight (2008) remains my favorite, if imperfect, example of the prisoner’s dilemma.)

Playing this game many times can lead the players to develop norms of trust. Neither is happy with the low payoff, so reaching some sort of agreement about cooperation can be beneficial to both.

This hasn’t been the pattern in national politics. On a range of issues and tactics, Republicans have defected while Democrats have cooperated. This includes how the GOP secured multiple Supreme Court justices, Donald Trump giving White House jobs to his daughter and son-in-law, Trump profiting from the presidency while refusing to release his tax returns, the Republican National Committee declaring the Jan. 6th riots to be “legitimate political discourse,” and many, many more. (I am not including Trump’s efforts to steal the 2020 election or his instigation of the Capitol riot since those were, appropriately, met with impeachment and investigations.)

We’re seeing this dynamic again in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. This ruling, while opposed by most Americans, was a longstanding goal of Republicans and particularly conservatives on the court. And Democratic leaders had, thanks to POLITICO’s bombshell disclosure of the draft opinion, ample warning that it was coming. And in response, they have done … virtually nothing.

As Jamelle Bouie notes, there are things the president or Congress can do to rein in an out-of-control Supreme Court. Lawmakers can impeach justices (perhaps the appointees that appear to have deceived senators or even lied under oath in their confirmation hearings). They can curtail the court’s jurisdiction or constrain judicial review. They can add more justices. No, Democrats may not have the votes to do any of these things; such efforts would likely fall at least one or two votes short in the Senate amid opposition from people like Sen. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, though they may at least be open to discussion on some ideas. But it’s not clear that Democrats are even trying to broach the topic. Instead, they have read poems and sung patriotic tunes.

Even if Congress doesn’t act, the Biden administration could push back on its own. One possible policy response would be to put abortion clinics on federal lands within states that have banned abortions; the administration has taken that off the table. Biden also could verbally attack the legitimacy of the court, as a previous Democratic president once did. He hasn’t.

To be clear, most of these moves would be treated as significant norm violations in Washington. But that’s the point. When a norm violation is met by another, that gives both parties an incentive to find a new equilibrium down the road, and suggests to the first violator that they may have gone too far. If the majority’s rulings to end the federal right to abortion and restrict the states’ ability to regulate guns were met with an attempt to add four justices to the court — even if that attempt failed — it would send a message that there is a price to be paid, and that a future Congress might finish the job.

A classic economics article by David Kreps et al. outlines a version of the prisoner’s dilemma that spans many iterations. In this game, it may make sense for one player to act irrationally in the short run, forgoing some payoffs, in order to give that player a reputation of unpredictability or craziness. This can improve that player’s negotiating position further down the road. It could make sense for Democrats to adopt a similar strategy, at least to the point that Republicans believe that Democrats are as willing to damage institutions as they are.

For now, though, the lack of any fulsome Democratic response simply sends the message that there will be no penalty for GOP transgressions. And the court’s conservative majority is just getting started.



:thunk:

copy
Jul 26, 2007


john dalameguy

Excelzior
Jun 24, 2013

spacemang_spliff posted:

Get fecked, democrats

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

loquacius posted:

this has gotta be an error

like, they didn't vote for themselves? Their spouses didn't? etc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POB3Dr0uonc&t=135s

kakotheres
Nov 9, 2016

Do the job that is in front of you

HashtagGirlboss posted:

Was the show axe just an axe with maybe a rubber bump on the blade?

Just a really blunt axe I think. He was supposed to duck I guess

paul_soccer12
Jan 5, 2020

by Fluffdaddy
https://twitter.com/HansZimmer/status/1541906286911967232?s=19

TeenageArchipelago
Jul 23, 2013



lmao isn't it just the end of the judicial session?

everyone is conspiracy brained now it owns

Pobrecito
Jun 16, 2020

hasta que la muerte nos separe

HashtagGirlboss posted:

The whole thing about Obama not having the votes is also ignoring that 2009 was a vastly different landscape pre tea party. The republicans were trying to be conciliatory and faux reflective and there were a number of pro Roe republicans still left at that point (one, Collins, is still there, but they also had Olympia snow and a handful of others) and I think if Obama had done it in that honeymoon period it could have been done.

not to mention that obama absolutely 100% had a veto-proof majority for a period of time. libs love to talk about how it was only for a couple months or whatever, but like that was them waiting on al franken (lol) to finally get seated - something they knew was coming and could have prepared for. a real party that wanted to do things would have spent those months before franken got seated having all kinds of legislation ready to go on day one. it was like 6 months. plenty of time, even in the senate, to get stuff ready for a vote.

but even when you go there libs talk about lieberman or ben nelson or whichever conservadem was a questionable vote - which just leads to the next question of how many loving democratic senators do we need to have enough solid votes to do Good Things? 70? 80?

lobotomy molo
May 7, 2007

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Toplowtech posted:

What pissed me off the most about the Duncan coverage is the total lack of curiosity on WHERE the money of Charles X reparations (okay it's technically Orleans who forced the payment but while it was for 50% of the original value he forced the full payment with borrowed money from the Bank de France*, so gently caress you lafayette too i guess) went. Another victory for a liberal king.

See Charles X wanted the monarchists to get everything back. All of it. So when they came back from exile and his brother was king, as the leader of the main party of the ultra reactionary parliament, he forced the state to reimburse them fully, nearly bankrupting the state and leaving it useless. He then spent nearly a decade rendering the whole parliament useless. Then when he was king, he sent the army to the unified island of Saint Domingue, then under Haitian control and said to the Haitian leader: "it would be sad if the east side the island was to side with us and helped us enslave you all again. And even if you won, wouldn't the newly successful generals of your army be a thread to your power? Better pay, he is what we think you can pay with the whole island under your control." Of course, the french state never saw the money, it literally went to the pocked of the former land owners. Who were quite happy to have some cash flow when he then annexed Algeria.

The rush to Africa, brought to you with Haitian money.

That poo poo made the french reactionary so loving rich for nearly a century, it's not even funny. If you want an example of how rich, don't go far: Arthur de Gobineau (aka evil Alexander Dumas) spent his life in luxury, doing poo poo diplomatic work. Like Dumas, his grandmother was rumored to be a black slave. Unlike Dumas, his father could pass and he was super racist. How racist? I-wrote-a-book-called-"An Essay on the inequality of the human races" racist. There is an English version which was quite popular in America (after they removed around 150 pages of him calling the American population half breed scums). It's considered the bible of Aryanism (no, not the religious heresy). Hitler had it republished, just after posing for a photo in front of the Eiffel tower.

There is a giant pile of poo poo created by Saint Domingue's failed business model and it doesn't stop in Haiti or after 1804.

*then a private bank, modeled on Alexander Hamilton**'s Bank of America
** another one of Lafayette's personal friends. Also an important figure in capitalism history.

you’re right, and in many ways the following decades in france was a total victory by finance: that’s the beauty of debt, you can enslave people forever using it.

this source can go gently caress itself, but this thread is interesting in terms of how many different ways france hosed over free haiti using debt and reparations
https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1528019081491886082?lang=en

lobotomy molo
May 7, 2007

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

spacemang_spliff posted:

Get fecked, democrats

slam sector 2024

galenanorth
May 19, 2016


Bofa could have won, and it's all their fault

Wraith of J.O.I.
Jan 25, 2012


seems to rosy to believe idk

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1542206895318081538

U-DO Burger
Nov 12, 2007





the jan 6 hearings are working!!!

my bony fealty
Oct 1, 2008


Walker is a walking scandal so maybe it's true, Abrams running even makes me believe it

but also lol, polls

Grey Fox
Jan 5, 2004

lol I didn't know he called out RBG a couple days ago https://twitter.com/JohnDelaney/status/1541173523661594624

loquacius
Oct 21, 2008

Grey Fox posted:

lol I didn't know he called out RBG a couple days ago https://twitter.com/JohnDelaney/status/1541173523661594624

folks,

he's right

loquacius
Oct 21, 2008

heartbreaking.jpg

spacetoaster
Feb 10, 2014

https://twitter.com/JediofGallifrey/status/1540472805896093698

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

loquacius posted:

folks,

he's right

he needs to add some more years to ‘09 but yeah

spacemang_spliff
Nov 29, 2014

wide pickle

Grey Fox posted:

lol I didn't know he called out RBG a couple days ago https://twitter.com/JohnDelaney/status/1541173523661594624

i hate to agree but he's right lol

Azathoth
Apr 3, 2001

my bony fealty posted:

Walker is a walking scandal so maybe it's true, Abrams running even makes me believe it

but also lol, polls

yeah that's probably an outlier but ill buy that Warnock is doing better in the head to head matchup than Abrams, and theres the real possibility that Warnock squeaks out a win even as Abrams loses

lobotomy molo
May 7, 2007

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

loquacius posted:

heartbreaking.jpg

spacetoaster
Feb 10, 2014

Obama when running for President: "The Freedom of Choice Act is my TOP PRIORITY!!" *crowd cheers*

Obama when President:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiqUhqPwf_Y

discoukulele
Jan 16, 2010

Yes Sir, I Can Boogie
https://mobile.twitter.com/dissentingj/status/1541401721079009281

so like, if this is the case, why exactly is dem messaging so bad?

(also, good lord the succ condescension in the replies)

mad.radhu
Jan 8, 2006




Fun Shoe

this is the most embarrassingly named account i've ever seen

galenanorth
May 19, 2016

for a party with control of the legislature and not an individual member, I don't think introducing 300 bills and resolutions on a topic counts as doing something unless it becomes a law

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

I think Warnock might actually hold on. Walker is so obviously a complete mushbrain....

tenderjerk
Nov 6, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 369 days!
I hope walker loses so I never have to be made aware of his son ever again

Wraith of J.O.I.
Jan 25, 2012


tenderjerk posted:

I hope walker loses so I never have to be made aware of his son ever again

which one

Grey Fox
Jan 5, 2004

tenderjerk posted:

I hope walker loses so I never have to be made aware of his son ever again
walker feels the same way about at least one of them

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

tenderjerk posted:

I hope walker loses so I never have to be made aware of his son ever again

He's dropped off a bit, no? I used to see his videos on the TL a lot more.

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

https://twitter.com/LoekVV_/status/1542156467293282309?s=20

these people must be defeated even if it means democrats lose forever

Raccooon
Dec 5, 2009

Walker is literally unintelligible when he speaks. Lol if Warnock can’t beat that.

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

discoukulele posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/dissentingj/status/1541401721079009281

so like, if this is the case, why exactly is dem messaging so bad?

(also, good lord the succ condescension in the replies)

speaking of the replies I’m going to point this out:

https://twitter.com/dissentingj/status/1541801726277206023?s=21&t=2U-IcYfZczshAAjv2vK1Zw

this is a good point that needs to be included in “dems are useless”. the answer for 1976-1980 is that Carter was against abortion and vetoed budgets until the precursor to the Hyde amendment was added. the next time there was a Democratic trifecta was 1993-1994 and codifying a right to abortion was part of Hillarycare. then the contract on America happened. next we have Obama and abortion was no longer a priority.

RealityWarCriminal
Aug 10, 2016

:o:

ram dass in hell posted:

occurs to me now that one can be feckless but idk if i have ever heard someone described as fecked. Feckful? Feckable? Fecky?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpiL3wuluEY

TeenageArchipelago
Jul 23, 2013


Are there any numbers for how dangerous it is to the health of the mother to carry a baby to term when she is still underage? I just want to understand the risk that these people are perfectly fine forcing onto a child

Bear Retrieval Unit
Nov 5, 2009

Mudslide Experiment

you know the thing

Raccooon
Dec 5, 2009

I like the replies insinuating it’s racist to think Obama should have tried to codify Roe.

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Uncle Wemus
Mar 4, 2004

https://twitter.com/nytopinion/status/1542181350534483968?s=20&t=WSqvw2V_X1KV7NGKrK12Kg

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