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TheIncredulousHulk posted:Nobody can figure it out with 100% certainty and that's the tactical point of them playing it like this. There are ample reasons to suspect others would oppose it if their opposition was necessary(including Sinema herself literally saying it out loud) Sinema actually said the opposite. She said there are people who had problems with specific provisions, but would never be the one to sink the bill and would reluctantly vote for it without saying anything, who told her they were glad she was objecting to those provisions publicly because they wouldn't do it.
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Jun 29, 2022 21:08
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:3) Why is Australia so disproportionately down on both China and the U.S.? Australia has a saturation of Murdoch-funded media that would likely favor Trump/Republicans, and is also very proximate to and directly impacted by China's regional influence and manipulation plays.
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Jun 29, 2022 21:12
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Sinema actually said the opposite. Oh? I've never seen the version of the quote you're describing. Can you link a source? I'd be interested in reading it
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Jun 29, 2022 21:24
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https://twitter.com/KirbyWTweets/status/1542172346596859904 So our choice in Florida will be the altar boy Rubio or Judge Dredd cosplay Demings.
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Jun 29, 2022 21:34
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Sinema actually said the opposite. Given everything we've learned about group dynamics and human decision making in Social Psychology in the last 60 years this is indeed the most likely scenario, at least for the majority. It's also not entirely surprising to note that both Manchin and Sinema have somewhat "quirky" personality types given, not only their willingness, but that they sometimes seem almost gleeful about publicly opposing their in-group. -Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Jun 29, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 21:45
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FlamingLiberal posted:The only discussion since Walker won the GOP nomination has been about all of his secret children so I’m sure that doesn’t help That'd make a good "Who said it: Herschel or Kamala?" quiz question. eta for those who thought my point was too subtle:  Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 14:33 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 21:47
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TheIncredulousHulk posted:Oh? I've never seen the version of the quote you're describing. Can you link a source? I'd be interested in reading it It's from the book the "hiding behind my skirt" quote came from. Re-reading it, I just noticed she didn't actually claim anyone else told her they were opposed to parts of BBB, just that it was her "feeling" they were. https://books.google.com/books?id=d...20skirt&f=false Discendo Vox posted:Australia has a saturation of Murdoch-funded media that would likely favor Trump/Republicans, and is also very proximate to and directly impacted by China's regional influence and manipulation plays. Maybe, but the favorable feelings of the country aren't 100% motivated by approval of the President. Biden is unpopular in Israel, but the U.S. has 83% approval there. Seems unlikely that Rupert Murdoch alone could swing 1/4 to 1/3 of Australia against the U.S. as a nation with anti-Biden programming. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:59 on Jun 29, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 21:57
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TheIncredulousHulk posted:Nobody can figure it out with 100% certainty and that's the tactical point of them playing it like this. There are ample reasons to suspect others would oppose it if their opposition was necessary(including Sinema herself literally saying it out loud) but there's no way to be totally sure what any of the others are truly willing to do without them actually being in a position where it counts. Plenty have made noncomittal noises about maybe, someday, being forced into some nebulous "reform" but there's always a giant layer of deniability maintained at all times I mean, you can pretty much track the legislation that was watered down and still promoted as part of BBB--Final & Dead Version to see what bothered capital (and thus more than only SineMan demanded): * Prescription-drug cost controls (narrowed down to insulin + a handful of chemo drugs) * Medicare dental, vision & hearing coverage (watered down to some amount going toward hearing aids) * Paid time off (from 12 weeks to 4 weeks) (eta: I think they also subverted it into an insurance policy for which employees had to carry & pay into) * Medicare eligibility lowered to age 60 (lol, they didn't even try for this, and it's a concrete proposal on which Biden ran) OTOH, they preserved their SALT deductions for richies restoration, even though it would've amounted to around one-third of all spending under BBB. (eta: BBB also preserved the shoveling of more money to private insurers so as to mask insurance costs to voters.) And that's leaving aside the other stuff Dems ditched right up front after running on it for the prior two years, like doubling the minimum wage. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Jun 29, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 21:59
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Kraftwerk posted:I'm of the opinion that you need a person like Huey Long who is willing to do morally questionable things in the advancement of a leftist ideology. I do not think politics is fair or moral and is strictly about power at any costs and thus requires a degree of corruption and strong personalities to carry the whole movement forward. There never would've been a Bolshevik takeover of Russia without Lenin's single-minded and relentless pursuit of political power. We need a guy like that here, who has the salesmanship skills to steal many of the people we ideologically despise right here in this thread. Because the ancestors of those same people were out there agitating for labor rights and new deal era policies during the depression and then we lost them in the 1970s to Reagan. Do you mean that we need someone like that here in the thread, or the type of people you're talking about are here in the thread?
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Jun 29, 2022 22:47
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Willa Rogers posted:I mean, you can pretty much track the legislation that was watered down and still promoted as part of BBB--Final & Dead Version to see what bothered capital (and thus more than only SineMan demanded): This bit depends on what it is we say BBB was when it flatlined vs whatever it was that was still twitching as the administration kept hitting it with the defibrillator. There was a period in late January where several more conservative Dems in the House flipped out and swore up and down they were ready to spike the bill if it didn't have their SALT change, because an anonymously (and poorly) sourced news story went round saying it had been dropped from the Senate negotiations because of Manchin's resistance. Manchin's reaction when asked was to say BBB was already dead - but then after he got his headlines his staff then clarified that by that he meant the House bill, not whatever closed door talk had been ongoing. I dunno that this takes away from your point, just saying.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:00
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I gotta believe this poll is an outlier until I see another one. Hershel Walker really is that bad. Like the man cannot string two sentences together coherently, a new illegitimate kid pops up every week, he stands for absolutely nothing that anyone can ascertain other than 'the Republicans put me up here' and while that might be a hard but palatable pill for your average blood red Republican to swallow, he's also black, and only white men can be utterly without merit and excel in the current system.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:02
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Oracle posted:Hershel Walker really is that bad. Like the man cannot string two sentences together coherently, a new illegitimate kid pops up every week, he stands for absolutely nothing that anyone can ascertain other than 'the Republicans put me up here' and while that might be a hard but palatable pill for your average blood red Republican to swallow, he's also black, and only white men can be utterly without merit and excel in the current system.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:03
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ummel posted:So our choice in Florida will be the altar boy Rubio or Judge Dredd cosplay Demings. In lighter news, an addendum to Burgerwall from yesterday that I didn't see highlighted in the thread: https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1541958552532795393 There's nothing else really surprising in the article that you couldn't also learn from Hutchinson's/others' testimony (Trump definitely a very stable jenius), but I really liked the fresh twist detail of Music Man. It would be great to know more about him, but alas there appears to be no further elaboration in the article. Also wonder if he has opinions on Cats (2019). Zero_Grade fucked around with this message at 01:58 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 23:07
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/KirbyWTweets/status/1542172346596859904 Hey we also had a black cop run for public office in Illinois - she's even a lesbian! Lori Lightfoot. She is also trash and has public approval near 30% because she sucks that much.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:08
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https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1542261342220029958I give up (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 29, 2022 23:28
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Bar Ran Dun posted:That’s basically the argument, that anything that prevents a pregnancy is abortion. It absolutely drives me up a loving wall that none of these “very devout”. Christians actually know why Onan got in trouble for doing what he did. I mean, I know Evangelicals are too busy thumping the Bible to read it but ffs.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:32
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DreamingofRoses posted:It absolutely drives me up a loving wall that none of these “very devout”. Christians actually know why Onan got in trouble for doing what he did. I mean, I know Evangelicals are too busy thumping the Bible to read it but ffs. There are so many other things that Evangelicals do that the bible actually says NOT to do.  quote:“And when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites, for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and on the street corners to be seen by others. Truly I tell you, they have received their reward in full. But when you pray, go into your room, close the door and pray to your Father, who is unseen. Then your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward you. And when you pray, do not keep on babbling like pagans, for they think they will be heard because of their many words. Do not be like them, for your Father knows what you need before you ask him.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:34
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Don't think this has been posted here yet. https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1542261342220029958 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 29, 2022 23:35
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Oracle posted:Hershel Walker really is that bad. Like the man cannot string two sentences together coherently, a new illegitimate kid pops up every week, he stands for absolutely nothing that anyone can ascertain other than 'the Republicans put me up here' and while that might be a hard but palatable pill for your average blood red Republican to swallow, he's also black, and only white men can be utterly without merit and excel in the current system. He agreed to debate Warnock. I can't imagine that not being hilarious.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:37
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Sephyr posted:Don't think this has been posted here yet. can you post the story, it's paywalled
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Jun 29, 2022 23:37
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Koos Group posted:Do you mean that we need someone like that here in the thread, or the type of people you're talking about are here in the thread? I mean in the US. But I guess the system is set up to weed out and prevent people like that from coming back.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:37
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Cimber posted:There are so many other things that Evangelicals do that the bible actually says NOT to do. Oh no, I know that’s just rank hypocrisy, which the gospels are very clear on how well that goes over with god. It’s just pulling out the minutiae of the story of Onan just to get it actively and completely wrong.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:37
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B B posted:He agreed to debate Warnock. I can't imagine that not being hilarious. I'd say he'll pull out at the last minute, but he seems to be bad at that, too.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:38
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Zero_Grade posted:In lighter news, an addendum to Burgerwall from yesterday that I didn't see highlighted in the thread: I mean obviously you'd like Memory it's by far the best track in the show and the whole musical can be thought of as a frame for that particular song. But also this feels like it's veering off into Gorilla Channel territory where we all gawk at how ridiculous our very ridiculous president was.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:44
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Herstory Begins Now posted:can you post the story, it's paywalled tl;dr "Famously anti-choice Democrat set to name fundie Republican judge to the bench"
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Jun 29, 2022 23:45
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Herstory Begins Now posted:can you post the story, it's paywalled I can't see past the paywall either, but according to the AP summary, the tl;dr version is: Biden has struck a deal with McConnell to nominate McConnell's friend - a lawyer for former Governor Matt Bevin - to the circuit court in Kentucky in exchange for not slowing down any of his other federal judge nominees for the rest of the year.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:47
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Bel Shazar posted:tl;dr "Famously anti-choice Democrat set to name fundie Republican judge to the bench" Okay? I'd like to know what the linked article says.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:47
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Makes sense to make that kind of deal with the head of the majority party in congress
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Jun 29, 2022 23:48
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Herstory Begins Now posted:can you post the story, it's paywalled I can't see the story either, but I found a clip of it in the comments:  How reliable is John Yarmuth? I know Biden's stupid, but I can't imagine he's this loving stupid... E: The only possible scenario I can see is if he's already got 50 votes on voting no for Meredith's confirmation.....but then this just seems like a waste of time Kalit fucked around with this message at 23:52 on Jun 29, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 23:49
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Kalit posted:How reliable is John Yarmuth? I know Biden's stupid, but I can't imagine he's this loving stupid... It's because of the "Blue Slip System." Home state Senators get to nominate circuit judges for their state. When a state has 2 Rs or 2 Ds and the President is of the other party, they usually work out a compromise candidate. But, R Senators have just been refusing to nominate anyone to those seats or nominating someone the White House thinks is too far to consider a compromise. See the famous "Dick Durbin gets sad when Ron Johnson blocks his own nominated judge for Wisconsin" story going around last week. The blue slip system has been in place since the Senate started, but there is nothing mandating that they do it and they could change the rules if all 50 Dems agreed. But, I imagine that many individual Senators don't want to give up that power/break 225+ years of tradition/fear that McConnell would slow everything else down in retaliation. It should surprise nobody that the GOP did briefly wave blue slip requirements (but, not get rid of them entirely) for some nominees in 2019 when Democrats refused to nominate "acceptable" compromise candidates for Trump. They did let Democrats block some of them until they struck a deal on nominees, though. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 29, 2022 23:58
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I can't see past the paywall either, but according to the AP summary, the tl;dr version is: Well, if McConnell agreed to it then I see no reason why he can't be trusted to follow through with his promise. But that's just this goldfish's opinion.
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Jun 29, 2022 23:58
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
I thought Republicans trashed the blue slips when they were in the majoirty a few years ago?
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Jun 30, 2022 00:03
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Meatball posted:I thought Republicans trashed the blue slips when they were in the majoirty a few years ago? I edited it into the post above, but: quote:It should surprise nobody that the GOP did briefly wave blue slip requirements (but, not get rid of them entirely) for some nominees in 2019 when Democrats refused to nominate "acceptable" compromise candidates for Trump. They did let Democrats block some of them until they struck a deal on nominees, though. The Republicans only removed it for a few nominees and only for appeals court nominees. District court nominees still needed blue slips and they never eliminated them for those nominations. Democrats successfully delayed some district court nominees until they reached a deal where Trump nominated 85 judges recommended by blue state Senators and they stopped holding up 135 other nominations by Republicans. Durbin kept the same rules from 2019, which allows them to nominate appeals court nominees over home state Senator objections in some scenarios, but still requires the blue slip for all district court nominees.
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Jun 30, 2022 00:09
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It's because of the "Blue Slip System."
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Jun 30, 2022 00:09
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FlamingLiberal posted:I didn't realize until earlier today that they are still honoring blue slips for nominees. That's just completely insane to me. The GOP previously ignored them entirely from Dems so it's incredibly frustrating that Dems are once again allowing the GOP to slow things down. Especially when odds are pretty good that the Dems lose the Senate again in November. The GOP ignored them entirely for appeals court nominees for the first time ever. And Durbin has kept that rule (but, he is exercising it less than Grassley did) that allows him to move forward on appeals court nominees without their home state Senator's approval. They never got rid of the blue slip rule for circuit court nominees. Democrats struck a deal with Republicans to let home state Dems nominate ~85 circuit court judges and let Republicans vote on another 135 of their nominees without delays (they already had a majority, so Dems weren't going to actually sink any unless several Republican Senators sided with them. So, allowing them to have a vote meant almost all of them got confirmed).
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Jun 30, 2022 00:16
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A lot of the post-Roe damage will come in the shape of the insane asylum of judges Mitch has been appointing for the last 8+ years, after freezing replacements during much of Obama's term. It seems to me that the 'play' is that Biden might get to at least approve some positions until the midterms, before losing and making the issue moot. That may be giving them too much credit.
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Jun 30, 2022 00:26
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Reviving the Iran nuclear deal seems to have gotten 98% of the way there and has been stuck on the last 2% for several months. That last 2% might end up killing the entire effort to revive it. The three main things they can't resolve: 1) Russia pulled out of its role to take excess enriched uranium from Iran and no other country is equipped to store or handle it right now. Russia says they won't rejoin unless all European, Asian, and American sanctions on it for the invasion of Ukraine are lifted. 2) Iran says they won't sign back on unless the U.S. takes the Iranian Revolutionary Guard off of the terrorism blacklist and allows them to use American financial institutions. The U.S. says that wasn't part of the original 2015 deal and they will only agree if Iran offers an equivalent concession. 3) Iran wants a guarantee that the U.S. won't pull out again like Trump did, but the U.S. has no way of guaranteeing 100% that a future President won't do it. Neither the U.S. nor Iran insisted on this in the 2015 deal because nobody thought anyone would actually do it. https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1542278543295528960
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Jun 30, 2022 00:27
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Reviving the Iran nuclear deal seems to have gotten 98% of the way there and has been stuck on the last 2% for several months. That last 2% might end up killing the entire effort to revive it. I'd say that last 2% is in fact 98%, seeing as all 3 of those are pretty clear show-stoppers with almost no chance of resolution in the current geopolitical environment. Iran will deal with the US again when one of the 2 countries has a major change of political structure. So coin flip on who goes first.
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Jun 30, 2022 00:32
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It's describing Iran and Russia sabotaging the deal to Russia's benefit.
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Jun 30, 2022 00:37
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It amazes me that Iran has even agreed to discuss this again after Trump threw the agreement in the trash out of spite for Obama, and not because Iran did anything wrong As was mentioned, if we can't even 100% commit to our end of this deal, why would Iran agree to anything? I get that they are probably desperate, to a degree, but they're not stupid.
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Jun 30, 2022 00:37
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