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They already have 4 votes minimum for the "states can ignore their constitutions to calvinball their elections" so it's probably safe to assume alternate elector slates will be legal in 2024. We've already lost the game. McConnell outplayed us all. Gotta say, nice work end-running the government via the courts.
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Jun 30, 2022 16:45
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OAquinas posted:We've already lost the game. McConnell outplayed us all. Gotta say, nice work end-running the government via the courts. The game isn't over, the Democrats do have options (Like, say, expanding the Supreme Court) but because they refuse to do anything because "Decorum" and "Precedent", it's effectively over, and now it's just a matter of sitting through the endgame. Democracy dies because of inertia.
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Jun 30, 2022 16:49
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I'm not ruling anything out and I'm no expert SCOTUS watcher, I'm just saying the timing on that really does not line up with that being their goal. I assume we'll know soon enough. For me to believe that any of the justices are concerned enough with the general public’s reaction to the timing of their decisions on cert petitions to actually sway that decision, I’d have to first believe such a reaction meaningfully exists. Most people have no idea what’s on their docket for the next term.
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Jun 30, 2022 16:54
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They're still a shitload of steps away from it being a fait accompli. They've literally still got the hardest steps ahead of them and the gop is currently kicking every hornets nest that they can when they should be focusing their efforts.
Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 30, 2022 16:54
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Herstory Begins Now posted:They're still a shitload of steps away from it being a fait accompli. They've literally still got the hardest steps ahead of them and the gop is currently kicking every hornets nest that they can when they should be focusing their efforts. Please explain what “hardest steps” are in front of them.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:00
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ShutteredIn posted:Please explain what “hardest steps” are in front of them. The part where you actually seize power, like what trump tried, and failed at. Then you have to hold onto power during the constitutional crisis and during whatever unrest is ongoing and that doesn't even get into the wildcard of american security institutions which are generally invested in elections mattering. Past a certain point it's all clancychat, but yes they have by far the hardest part still ahead of them Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 17:05 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 30, 2022 17:03
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Randalor posted:The game isn't over, the Democrats do have options (Like, say, expanding the Supreme Court) but because they refuse to do anything because "Decorum" and "Precedent", it's effectively over, and now it's just a matter of sitting through the endgame. Democracy dies because of inertia. Playing the game and attempting to use a flawed system will always fail us over time. It's not the play that's the problem, it's the game itself. We need a new game.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:05
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Herstory Begins Now posted:The part where you actually seize power, like what trump tried, and failed at. Then you have to hold onto power during the constitutional crisis and during whatever unrest is ongoing and that doesn't even get into the wildcard of american security institutions which are generally invested in elections mattering. Past a certain point it's all clancychat, but yes they have by far the hardest part still ahead of them No empire ever pulls out of these terminal declines.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:07
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OAquinas posted:They already have 4 votes minimum for the "states can ignore their constitutions to calvinball their elections" so it's probably safe to assume alternate elector slates will be legal in 2024. I hope Mitch gets big fuckoff statues of himself everywhere across the US to make sure people never forget his status as America's Neo Founding Father. Just everywhere you go, you see his ghoulish, sallow, Emperor Palpatine jowled face leering down at you from 30 feet up, smiling wickedly forever because he won.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:07
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cat botherer posted:They're seizing the power right now, its just the boring way of doing it with courts instead of insane idiots dressed up as vikings. The ability of the feds to regulate state voting laws is gone, etc. Again, they have not accomplished it yet. Also it took rome something like 800 years to actually collapse after it's decline seriously set in. nine-gear crow posted:I hope Mitch gets big fuckoff statues of himself everywhere across the US to make sure people never forget his status as America's Neo Founding Father. Just everywhere you go, you see his ghoulish, sallow, Emperor Palpatine jowled face leering down at you from 30 feet up, smiling wickedly forever because he won. The irony is that mcconnell's faction isn't even the side trying to steal elections/fully subvert democracy. He just did a ton of legwork for them.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:09
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FlamingLiberal posted:Well Democracy had a good run I guess I can't wait for the legal pretzel that "actually, overruling the voters because the legislature didn't like how they voted is fine and very democratic. Politicians throwing out results they don't like is fine."
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Jun 30, 2022 17:11
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Again, they have not accomplished it yet. This is a wildly optimistic view of the situation. They've seized arguably the most powerful of three branches of government and are well positioned to seize a second branch this November. Voting rights have been sabotaged at the state level and the Dems just lost their 50th vote because Leahy is having hip surgery and considering he's 82, he could be out for months or even until midterms.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:14
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cat botherer posted:They're seizing the power right now, its just the boring way of doing it with courts instead of insane idiots dressed up as vikings. The ability of the feds to regulate state voting laws is gone, etc. Yeah, this. I'm honestly curious how people are so optimistic about things working out when A) The Supreme Court is actively making it possible for the next Republican to walk into office (every Republican-led state will just be electoral votes for the Republican candidate once states are allowed free reign over their federal votes), B) The next Republican VP will be a boot-licking toady with no moral values, and C) Democrats have shown they are willing to do nothing except cry out for someone to do something while this happens. After the election is stolen? People protest, cops break out the teargas and beat protestors, and the US becomes a Banana Republic. All nice and legally, too.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:15
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Again, they have not accomplished it yet. e: But this is exactly what I was talking about. The Western empire was slowly cored out by internal discord and the settling and military use of barbarian foederati. Slowly, they became more powerful, and their interests wound up aligning with major land magnates. The Emperor became less and less relevant, morphing into a figurehead with the usually Germanic magister militum having true control, but with local strongmen becoming more powerful as well, with the empire being less able to exercise central control. cat botherer fucked around with this message at 17:20 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 30, 2022 17:16
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nine-gear crow posted:I hope Mitch gets big fuckoff statues of himself everywhere across the US to make sure people never forget his status as America's Neo Founding Father. Just everywhere you go, you see his ghoulish, sallow, Emperor Palpatine jowled face leering down at you from 30 feet up, smiling wickedly forever because he won. I wish I could live 200 years to go to the hot musical about how actually Mitch McConnell was very cool, and how he bravely supported a variety of enlightened principles.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:17
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Also it took rome something like 800 years to actually collapse after it's decline seriously set in. Ahh, I see someone's excited for Emperor DeSantis's annexation of Mexico
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Jun 30, 2022 17:17
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cat botherer posted:No it didn't lol, unless you count the Byzantine empire. Things also happen rather fast nowadays compared to premodern times. It's still ~400 if you go with just the western roman empire. Kalli posted:Ahh, I see someone's excited for Emperor DeSantis's annexation of Mexico look I just want to wear sandals, okay?
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Jun 30, 2022 17:19
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Herstory Begins Now posted:It's still ~400 if you go with just the western roman empire. You may have a point with the crisis of the third century, but Rome did not suffer any major barbarian incursions until Marcus Aurelius in the late second century, but these never posed a serious threat, and the Roman military could suppress them no problem. The Crisis was ongoing civil wars and internal discord, but Aurelian and Diocletian reorganized the government into the autocratic Dominate. The Late Empire, after the Crisis, was stable, with Rome very much having the upper hand until the very tail end of the 4th century. After that, the Western empire was slowly cored out by internal discord and the settling and military use of barbarian foederati. Slowly, they became more powerful, and their interests wound up aligning with major land magnates. The Emperor became less and less relevant, morphing into a figurehead with the usually Germanic magister militum having true control, but with local strongmen becoming more powerful as well, with the empire being less able to exercise central control.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:24
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The best part of ALL of this is going to be in 2024 when people do what they've been told and GET OUT AND VOTE! Astoundingly, it works, and Joe Biden is reelected with 350+ EVs! And then 25+ Republican state legislatures all simultaneously declare, "We've heard there might have been something problematic so we're invalidating the election and sending our own slate of electors." Which is now perfectly, uh, "legal." So even "VOTE!" doesn't work until some of these useless fucks make voting pertinent again in over half the loving country. Like, I don't know, suspending the filibuster to codify voting rights into federal law? I guess they'll do that after we VOTE! and then the excuse will be well we can't because we didn't win (due to the election being overturned by state legislatures) and we didn't win because last time we said we can't fix that problem and we just need you to vote even more so those votes can be tossed out and ignored and look what happened!
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Jun 30, 2022 17:27
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Again, they have not accomplished it yet. I agree with you that its not over yet, and I push back on doomposting on this board all the time, but this is..... extremely serious. The GOP (through the court) is now telegraphing an existential threat to meaningful liberal democracy in the United States; not just making the game unfair but basically ending the game altogether. We may be at the point where we have to hope both that 1) the Democrats win a huge victory in November beyond what the polls predict, perhaps because of a Roe v Wade Great Mattering, and more importantly 2) that the Dems then have an elbows-out give-no-fucks approach to using their power to save Democracy, probably including filibuster reform, election reform, packing the court, and admitting new states. (that last one might not be necessary)
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Jun 30, 2022 17:27
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Herstory Begins Now posted:1) This would be wildly premature to kick off a constitutional crisis and 2) if they give up the appearance of neutrality now then they lose the ability to lend legitimacy to a seizure of power later, assuming for the purposes of this hypothetical that that is indeed their motivation. Lmao. Lol. Legitimacy is meaningless in the face of a seizure of power, or a coup, or anything like that because as soon as it happens: 1) They're illegitimate, no one is going to go "well ok, they're the people who get to decide this stuff and 2) They're not going to give a single gently caress about anyone who sees them as illegitimate because they're going to simply toss them in jail anyway.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:27
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cat botherer posted:But this is exactly what I was talking about. Yeah I'm not saying that out of optimism, I just don't buy that an empire being in decline is strong evidence of short-term inevitability. Particularly when there are more immediate and much more significant factors that strengthen their ability take a greater share of power. Rigel posted:I agree with you that its not over yet, and I push back on doomposting on this board all the time, but this is..... extremely serious. The GOP (through the court) is now telegraphing an existential threat to meaningful liberal democracy in the United States; not just making the game unfair but basically ending the game altogether. Yeah I specifically agree that it is extremely serious and it is likely the most serious moment in american politics that anyone here has lived through.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:33
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Assuming that things stay their current course and the SC sets the groundwork for the GOP to steal the next election without even trying, what's the best-case scenario in that event? That the United States just... become independent States around what remains of the US? I'm talking absolutely best-case scenario, not what is most likely to happen.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:36
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Yeah I specifically agree that it is extremely serious and it is likely the most serious moment in american politics that anyone here has lived through. The most serious moment in American politics is when half the people in this country lost bodily autonomy and it didn't even spark a riot. The stage is set for Democracy to die with a whimper.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:37
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https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1542525374235643904 Well he's saying he'll push for the right thing, now to see how hard he actually pushes for it. I imagine him saying it and then tweeting it this morning is because enough of his staff finally got it through their heads that the party is likely to die completely, probably followed by US democracy as a whole, if they don't act on this ASAP.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:39
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Randalor posted:Assuming that things stay their current course and the SC sets the groundwork for the GOP to steal the next election without even trying, what's the best-case scenario in that event? That the United States just... become independent States around what remains of the US? I'm talking absolutely best-case scenario, not what is most likely to happen. Well in that hellworld timeline where the GOP wins in November (or at least wins enough) and the supreme court doesn't just rip off the mask but also throws off the robe with a "muahaha" to reveal the tentacles and fully endorses the idea that the states can ignore election results... I think in 2024 the people won't be ready to believe quite yet that things are terrible and we'll make an honest try at an election. If the Democrats clearly and obviously win a big victory that gets ignored, I'd guess we'd be headed either for a breakup with multiple secessions, or towards violence. Or both. Of course the truly worst hellworld timeline would be if Biden was so bad that he legitimately loses and the GOP/courts have a few more years to strangle Democracy.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:39
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Bishyaler posted:The most serious moment in American politics is when half the people in this country lost bodily autonomy and it didn't even spark a riot. The stage is set for Democracy to die with a whimper. ?? Protests and riots took place all over the country after the ruling.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:41
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Orthanc6 posted:https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1542525374235643904 Manchin is a hard no, Sinema is...basically on bath salts and crack all the time, who the gently caress knows. And Leahy is out for the season due to pulling an Old and breaking his hip. Any one of those would kill filibuster reform. I am curious to see how far they go for the performative effort though.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:42
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Orthanc6 posted:https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1542525374235643904 I just want to point out, because I've seen some confusion about it here and elsewhere, that this isn't inconsistent with what he said before. He's always (in this presidential term) said he's willing to consider carvouts, and he's said he's not willing to just scrap the filibuster. Also I'll throw in the obligatory, he still sucks and I'm not writing this post to defend him, just to clear up facts.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:43
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Herstory Begins Now posted:?? Protests and riots took place all over the country after the ruling. We have different definitions of riot.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:44
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OAquinas posted:Manchin is a hard no, Sinema is...basically on bath salts and crack all the time, who the gently caress knows. I think its an election pitch rather than a serious attempt to do it now, though they have to at least act like they are trying now. Apparently Biden has concluded that abortion is his only chance this year, and that he also has to take the step of getting Senators unambiguously on the record so he can very specifically tell the voters exactly how hard they need to vote in which states to get their rights back.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:45
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Herstory Begins Now posted:?? Protests and riots took place all over the country after the ruling. Protests took place all over the country, not riots. And the efficacy of temporary peaceful protest is right up there with dietary supplements.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:45
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OAquinas posted:Manchin is a hard no, Sinema is...basically on bath salts and crack all the time, who the gently caress knows. Presumably, the Republican senators that did the whole "Oh mah stars and garters! Those wily Supreme Court nominees hoodwinked us. I am shocked and appaled, appaled I say" song and dance after three SC Justices lied under oath may be able to be convinced to vote for carving a filibuster exception and codifying Roe V Wa... oh who am I kidding Edit: Herstory Begins Now posted:?? Protests and riots took place all over the country after the ruling. People protested and the Democrats chose to expand protections for Justices over people's rights to peacefully assemble. Randalor fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 30, 2022 17:46
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Randalor posted:Presumably, the Republican senators that did the whole "Oh mah stars and garters! Those wily Supreme Court nominees hoodwinked us. I am shocked and appaled, appaled I say" song and dance after three SC Justices lied under oath may be able to be convinced to vote for carving a filibuster exception and codifying Roe V Wa... oh who am I kidding Their out is to complain that the Dems are going too far, that they aren't wanting to codify Roe v Wade but they really want to impose a big shift towards abortion on all states and they can't support that, so there's no point in talking about filibuster rules. Manchin is in this camp too, the Dems don't even have 50 votes for it right now, even if they got past the filibuster, Manchin prefers some weak poo poo that we can't settle for.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:50
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Rigel posted:the Dems don't even have 50 votes for it right now "See, we tried? And we came up short at 48. Go vote in more pro-choice Dems"
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Jun 30, 2022 17:56
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Have Some Flowers! posted:I think this is what Biden and Pelosi want to get on the record, to back up their asks for people to vote in more Dems. "yes, last time we said if you gave us 50 votes we'd give you $2000 checks, voting rights laws, an end to covid, and a big stimulus bill, but no, really, THIS time we're good for it. pinky swear." the oh-no-we're-all-hostage-to-the-right routine can work, when the right is in power. unfortunately, right now the democrats are in complete control of the executive and legislative branches, and have proven that granted all that power they either can't or won't do poo poo. this is a phenomenally weak angle of attack.
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Jun 30, 2022 18:03
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Herstory Begins Now posted:The part where you actually seize power, like what trump tried, and failed at. Then you have to hold onto power during the constitutional crisis and during whatever unrest is ongoing and that doesn't even get into the wildcard of american security institutions which are generally invested in elections mattering. Past a certain point it's all clancychat, but yes they have by far the hardest part still ahead of them They don't need to do what Trump tried to do if they empower state legislators to effectively choose where their states' electoral votes go or how federal elections are held. If the Court rules state legislators can govern their own election rules NOT SUBJECT to even state supreme courts or governors, it's game over and the GOP will enjoy permanent minority rule. (by minority I mean minority of voters, majority of Senate / House seats and the Presidency.) If this happens, the GOP will have no trouble getting 60 senators. The purple states (who almost all have red state legislatures) will just enact obscene voter disenfranchisement and we won't see Dem senators from states like AZ, PA, WI, MI, GA ever again. FLIPADELPHIA fucked around with this message at 18:16 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 30, 2022 18:11
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:Unfortunately, right now the democrats are in complete control of the... legislative branches....
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Jun 30, 2022 18:12
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Crows Turn Off posted:Are they? There are two - Manchin and Sinema - who technically have a D next to their name but don't support most of the same positions. The Dems sank their own President over a bill to help people and throw a bone to the Progressive Wing and turned him into a lame duck and those two face no consequences because the Dem leadership is good with this. It’s who they are. They’ve effectively abandoned their people/the country to fundraise and exploit them and run political kabuki theater because they think they can go home and be safe in their districts.
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Jun 30, 2022 18:24
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The Atlanta GDP Nowcast unexpectedly updated again and the forecast is now -1% GDP growth for Q22022. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow  Technical recession is all but officially confirmed.
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Jun 30, 2022 18:31
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