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I’m not sure why either of you are bringing up nukes, and I would like you to stop.
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Jul 4, 2022 01:20
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Why are people so dense about the idea of escalation? No one on earth thinks Russia would start a war with NATO and launch nukes over some goods transit, thats not how it works. The reason not to pointlessly escalate over something so loving minor, is because Russia might decide to call lithuania's bluff, send in troops to secure the transit corridor, and see just what NATO's promises are made of, if they really want to engage article 5 over a sliver of land in lithuania. NATO then may call Russias bluff, launch air strikes on Russian forces in that corridor. Russia then responds with missile strikes on NATO forces and bases launching those strikes. NATO steps up their ground forces, mobilizes more troops, more strikes, some in Belarus where Russians on that side of the corridor have forces, rolls in a carrier group. Russia mobilizes reserves and conscription, Belarus joins in. NATO forces push into Kaliningrad, Belarus, Russia sinks a carrier group, NATO secures Kaliningrad, begins bombing of targets in Moscow and other places, moving into Russia proper, Russia uses tactical nukes on bases, troops, US launches nukes, theeeeeeen well, we all die. I'm desperately not trying to get into clancy chat here with that theoretical, but just trying to illustrate the baby steps into nuclear war, and how imperative it is not to pointlessly escalate things. Everyone thinks the other guy is going to blink and doesn't have the guts to make the next step, so its just everyone calling everyone's bluffs until it turns out they weren't bluffs because we're a bunch of apes puffing out our chests and howling instead of thinking carefully for 5 seconds. It really makes things easy for both sides when you keep telling yourself "pfff the other guy is too much of a pussy to do anything about this." I'm not saying "because they have nuclear weapons do whatever they say", thats absurd, I'm saying when and where you decide to dare the other guy to make the next step, it better be for a good reason, a necessary reason and well thought out, not because you want to be an ape puffing out your chest over some loving meaningless goods being shipped through a little bit of land.
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Jul 4, 2022 01:21
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I don’t want to put words in aphid’s mouth, but I’m of similar opinion as them. As far as I’m concerned, the effort spent pissing Russia off in a way that doesn’t help Ukraine or Europe (and in this case, we’re talking about a direct intervention into Russia’s domestic affairs based on the European Commission having too little time to write Article 420.69.1337.219 (b) of the 4th sanctions packaging saying “Lithuania, lay off trains with Kaliningrad as the end destination”) is simply wasted, and should be instead spent on things with higher RoI. Also, please, don’t summarise Tom Clancy’s bibliography with a preface of “I desperately want to avoid Clancychat here”. Edit: https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1543734894425247746 drat that cooked off 
cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 01:44 on Jul 4, 2022 |
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Jul 4, 2022 01:29
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Nenonen posted:Then they should make a joint political decision about that instead of Lithuania trying to solo here. Maybe they should organize some sort of joint infrastructure for the welfare and safety of Poland and Lithuania. A commonwealth, if you will.
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Jul 4, 2022 01:52
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1543734894425247746 is just farmers burning the leftover grad crop
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Jul 4, 2022 01:57
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1543734894425247746 Nice of them to honor the 4th of July with a nice fireworks show
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Jul 4, 2022 02:01
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Ukraine appears to have lost one of the Pz2000's that arrived recently. Possibly two unless they are the same  First could also be abandoned. Looks oddly intact for a destroyed SPG.
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Jul 4, 2022 02:05
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Dandywalken posted:Ukraine appears to have lost one of the Pz2000's that arrived recently. Would they have ammunition for it to actually use it for more than a day?
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Jul 4, 2022 02:38
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Jul 4, 2022 02:54
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Paladinus posted:Would they have ammunition for it to actually use it for more than a day? On one hand, they use the same standard 155mm shells that every other long range NATO artillery piece given to Ukraine. On the other hand, we’re not giving them all that much. Dandywalken posted:First could also be abandoned. Looks oddly intact for a destroyed SPG. Maybe it got hit from the other side with something delicate? Something seems to be smoking there.
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Jul 4, 2022 03:05
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The problem with no Clancychat rule is that the definition of Clancychat keeps mutating over the course of the war. Back in February, the no Clancychat rule included talk about Kyiv resisting long enough to make Russia consider tactical nukes, back when common view among NATO/West was that Ukraine could not hold out past 48-72 hours. Then the definition shifted to be "Ukraine pushing Russia back out of territorial gains in the immediate area" causing WMD use. The definitions changed so many times that realistically discussing Ukraine pushing Russia out of Snake Island and Kherson would have been considered Clancychat just a few months ago. I get not wanting people to panic and post a lot of hysterical stuff. That would not be constructive. But I think it is counterproductive to the thread discussion to cut discussion of escalation off as soon as it's seen when it has been proven again and again since February that escalation can be safely talked about in the context of military operations as the US continues to send longer and longer rang HIMARS, other equipment, and Ukraine achieves objectives IRL that would have been considered "Clancychat" earlier in this thread's history. It comes off feeling very arbitrary and ineffective, and it has ended a few threads of genuine interest before they could even get started, when those discussions would not be otherwise considered out of the ordinary based on discussion of verified and posted facts.
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Jul 4, 2022 03:24
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I haven't found the No Clancychat rule to be at all limiting and I prefer it remain in place. I would like to thank the mod staff for fair and consistent enforcement.
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Jul 4, 2022 04:14
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HonorableTB posted:The problem with no Clancychat rule is that the definition of Clancychat keeps mutating over the course of the war. Back in February, the no Clancychat rule included talk about Kyiv resisting long enough to make Russia consider tactical nukes, back when common view among NATO/West was that Ukraine could not hold out past 48-72 hours. Then the definition shifted to be "Ukraine pushing Russia back out of territorial gains in the immediate area" causing WMD use. The definitions changed so many times that realistically discussing Ukraine pushing Russia out of Snake Island and Kherson would have been considered Clancychat just a few months ago. To me what comes off as very arbitrary is 2 people responding with “well huh why are you afraid of nukes” when someone simply said that they don’t see any whatsoever value in promulgating the Kaliningrad “blockade”, and someone else following up with a blow-by-blow NATO-Russia war over what amounts to a solved matter already. The only thing these posts contribute towards is inciting a rules-breaking derail. As for your problem with “no Clancychat rule”, please keep in mind that I use the term as a catch-all term for several topic restrictions: 1) Nukes - explicit separate rule in the OP. 2) WW3 - explicit separate rule in the OP. 3) No-fly zones - explicit separate rule in the OP. 4) Direct NATO intervention (flagged personnel in Ukraine) - implicitly by combination of the 3 aforementioned rules. 5) Elaborate and vaguely substantiated future hypotheticals - implicitly off-topic with this being a current events thread. Discussing specifics of Ukrainian Kherson counteroffensive when tens of thousands of Russian troops were creeping up Kyiv would’ve indeed been a waste of pages, and so would be posting how they will get HIMARS, public state-of-the-art American equipment, before Biden announced lend-lease and had several senior moments when speaking about Putin. (1) and (2) even have a dedicated D&D containment thread linked in the OP. And neither of these rules have been enforced strongly at times when the respective topics are a part of the ongoing news cycle - or were strongly enforced now, for that matter. Let’s consider this individual situation. What do you think is a likely military escalation from Russia here, in a situation where they’ve literally not even threatened anything more specific than “this will have negative consequences for the people of Lithuania”? Why do you think military escalation is something that aphid was predominantly concerned with - a nuclear war of all things, when the observed reality is a minor cyber attack hitting Lithuanian Railways? This is a non-issue that hasn’t been relevant in weeks, when we had a very small number of people masturbate about Ukrainian tanks rolling into Crimea, and wasn’t an issue for many weeks prior to that either. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 04:20 on Jul 4, 2022 |
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Jul 4, 2022 04:17
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So is there a plan for Ukraine to take back all this lost territory or are we gonna continue playing the greatest hits of the occasional HIMARS or TB2 strike on some command post or Russian trench until Ukraine's territorial borders gradually get pushed westward to Lviv? Like it's getting frustrating seeing the Russians continue to make gains while Ukraine can't seem to do anything except test Russian defences in Kherson and not make much progress otherwise.
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Jul 4, 2022 04:17
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Staluigi posted:Appropriating borscht through the fascist imperialist degenerate western thuggery of unesco is xenophobia! Russophobia! Bullying! We object in the strongest possible terms. How dare you, will NATO stop at nothing to oppress us Hey! You aren’t allowed to quote CSPAM in this thread! Only the other way around! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 4, 2022 04:19
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cinci zoo sniper posted:5) Elaborate and vaguely substantiated future hypotheticals - implicitly off-topic with this being a current events thread. Discussing specifics of Ukrainian Kherson counteroffensive when tens of thousands of Russian troops were creeping up Kyiv wouldve indeed been a waste of pages, and so would be posting how they will get HIMARS, public state-of-the-art American equipment, before Biden announced lend-lease and had several senior moments when speaking about Putin. I have a specific request then, which would at the least resolve my issues with No Clancychat in light of your clarifications (while also smoothing the flow of conversation in the thread in general given the frequency which it turns to Clancychat), which did do a lot to help me understand reframe the thread rules in light of events: My request then, is for you (preferably, CZS, as I legitimately respect and appreciate your mod work in this thread since the start, but others are also acceptable), to just periodically post an update or reminder on what is and is not clancychat, based on the developments of the time. It would do a lot to curtail complaints like mine as well as heading off discussions that might otherwise result in a lot of probes. If, say, the armed forces of Ukraine should move towards Crimea (just to use your example from the post), it would be a huge help to the thread discusion flow to drop a post saying something like "Given recent developments in the field, X topic is no longer considered Clancychat" or something similar. Is this something that could be done?
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Jul 4, 2022 04:28
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Kraftwerk posted:So is there a plan for Ukraine to take back all this lost territory or are we gonna continue playing the greatest hits of the occasional HIMARS or TB2 strike on some command post or Russian trench until Ukraine's territorial borders gradually get pushed westward to Lviv? Like it's getting frustrating seeing the Russians continue to make gains while Ukraine can't seem to do anything except test Russian defences in Kherson and not make much progress otherwise. I mean not at the moment no. Ukraine is still less equipped than Russia.
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Jul 4, 2022 04:48
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HonorableTB posted:I have a specific request then, which would at the least resolve my issues with No Clancychat in light of your clarifications (while also smoothing the flow of conversation in the thread in general given the frequency which it turns to Clancychat), which did do a lot to help me understand reframe the thread rules in light of events: That has been proposed before, in various terms, and I'm not too enthused by the idea. I think the thread has been doing an increasingly good job at naturally approaching military speculation through a pragmatic framework, and I'm fully content with keeping it that way. Last time I posted about this, my suggestion was to simply open a war map before you make a post about 3rd Ukrainian Guards Tank Army entering Vladivostok. Maybe double-check if mainstream international or Ukrainian news are musing about it, if you're really unsure. The “discussions that might otherwise result in a lot of probes” part does come off as concern trolling, that said. In the last 2 months, or ~233 pages/9300 posts, I've issued a total of 7 Clancychat probations, spread across 6 posters. This period of time included me logging off SA for a week of travel, and a mildly nasty meta-derail about Crimea Clancychat. This isn't an invitation to poo poo it up, but just a remark from my side that people griping about content restrictions seem to follow an implicit central theme of heavy-handed enforcement of those restrictions. In reality, it's basically just nukes that will get me to step in right away, thus an explicit rule and a containment thread. For most other topics, I tend to wait and see if tangents exhaust themselves, since otherwise I'd be 360 no-monitor probating people making their first post in the thread. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 05:10 on Jul 4, 2022 |
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Jul 4, 2022 05:00
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That has been proposed before, in various terms, and I'm not too enthused by the idea. I think the thread has been doing an increasingly good job at naturally approaching military speculation through a pragmatic framework, and I'm fully content with keeping it that way. Last time I posted about this, my suggestion was to simply open a war map before you make a post about 3rd Ukrainian Guards Tank Army entering Vladivostok. Maybe double-check if mainstream international or Ukrainian news are musing about it, if you're really unsure. I wasn't trying to concern troll, cincy. I've posted in this thread in good faith from the time it was made. I was just trying to make a suggestion that I thought was in the best interest of the thread, that's all
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Jul 4, 2022 05:19
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Deteriorata posted:Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. What?
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Jul 4, 2022 05:24
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HonorableTB posted:I wasn't trying to concern troll, cincy. I've posted in this thread in good faith from the time it was made. I was just trying to make a suggestion that I thought was in the best interest of the thread, that's all Fair enough, I apologise for that comment. I took your overall post as fair, lest you worry.
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Jul 4, 2022 05:27
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Groda posted:What? Tradition.
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Jul 4, 2022 05:28
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Just Another Lurker posted:Tradition.  Tradition! (Fiddler on the Roof would quite likely have been in modern Ukraine anyhow. The Pale of Settlement also included Belarus, Moldova, etc.) Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 05:37 on Jul 4, 2022 |
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Jul 4, 2022 05:33
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Groda posted:What? It started back when it was very much in doubt whether that post could be made the next day. This thread now demands that it continue as a tradition, I think one specific person is permitted to make that specific post with a new picture each time every day, at around dawn in Ukraine.
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Jul 4, 2022 05:37
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Xenophanes posted:I mean, I find most borscht to be a pleasant, if not exciting, soup, but having its cultural impact described as a "driver of tourism" is something I can't stop laughing at. this is an insult to salo, the actual tourist destination food. borshch? boring staple food made of root vegetable with some cream in it to make it not boring af. if you wanna do a feast you bring out the bacon sashimi
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Jul 4, 2022 05:47
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I am always against the nationalisation of foodways. Borscht is by its nature transnational. Heck, the word for it in english comes from Yiddish and not Russian or Ukrainian.
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Jul 4, 2022 05:54
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https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1543441292457156611 A literal bad movie/video game plot.
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Jul 4, 2022 05:58
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golden bubble posted:https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1543441292457156611 
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Jul 4, 2022 06:07
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Cable Guy posted:Wondering what sort of record they're looking for. Not sure if I want to know the answer. Don't worry, some of those things aren't considered crimes in Russia as long as its one of the first couple offenses.
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Jul 4, 2022 06:08
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golden bubble posted:https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1543441292457156611 4) They will be promised training and equipment, and given WWII surplus equipment and 3 weeks of hazing 5) They will be designated for back-end logistics, then sent in as cannon fodder 6) Pay will be *immediately* stolen by commanding officer 7) Survivors will be directly returned to prison after the war
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Jul 4, 2022 06:21
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HolHorsejob posted:4) They will be promised training and equipment, and given WWII surplus equipment and 3 weeks of hazing
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Jul 4, 2022 06:26
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golden bubble posted:https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1543441292457156611 Unless I'm missing something this guy does not seem very credible? https://www.igorsushko.com/
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Jul 4, 2022 06:33
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piL posted:Every time Russians have marched west in the last 300 years? So mean of Russia to keep marching west every time Europe invades
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Jul 4, 2022 07:09
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Fritz the Horse posted:Unless I'm missing something this guy does not seem very credible? https://www.igorsushko.com/ He started out as a mere translator, for supposed leaks published by Vladimir Osechkin, a prominent Russian civil rights activist, famous for his exposés on torture and corruption in Russian prisons. First letter sounded reasonable, but around 3rd or so they began to loose the plot. By 5th or so the consensus between Russian speakers in the thread was that something weird is going on, and I stopped paying attention to them shortly afterwards. No clue what he’s been up to in the recent months, but I would err on the side of caution, even if this specifically appears to be coming from Osechkin again, and seems way more likely than some of the excerpts of later leaks that I unfortunately had spent time reading. Looks like Sushko has launched a political non-profit on the back of this all? Weird. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 07:36 on Jul 4, 2022 |
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Jul 4, 2022 07:33
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cinci zoo sniper posted:He started out as a mere translator, for supposed leaks published by Vladimir Osechkin, a prominent Russian civil rights activist, famous for his exposés on torture and corruption in Russian prisons. First letter sounded reasonable, but around 3rd or so they began to loose the plot. By 5th or so the consensus between Russian speakers in the thread was that something weird is going on, and I stopped paying attention to them shortly afterwards. Interesting. I saw the tweet yesterday of the FSB/Wagner recruiting prisoners yesterday, and I wonder how credible it all is? I'll wait until I see another source on it. Edit, sorry already posted.
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Jul 4, 2022 08:06
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Penal battalions ultimately are not too controversial in Eastern Europe. Ukraine did form theirs a few months ago. What feels on the nose to me personally here is “mine-clearing duty, no documents, no bodies returned”. Maybe I overestimate the training requirements for sapper work, or the level of organisation on the Russian side of things, but this reads more like a Russian sitcom about Donbas wars, “Soldiers”-style.
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Jul 4, 2022 08:22
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Calibanibal posted:I haven't found the No Clancychat rule to be at all limiting and I prefer it remain in place. I would like to thank the mod staff for fair and consistent enforcement. Yeah I'm all for the Clancychat ban because all you need to do to see how ridiculous the discourse would be without it is go on Reddit and look at any sub about the Ukraine war.
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Jul 4, 2022 09:29
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Penal battalions ultimately are not too controversial in Eastern Europe. Ukraine did form theirs a few months ago. What feels on the nose to me personally here is “mine-clearing duty, no documents, no bodies returned”. Maybe their thinking goes along the lines of: "Everyone can clear a mine at least once." What % of the Russian army is actually Russian, and not an ethnic minority from the fringes?
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Jul 4, 2022 09:41
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samogonka posted:So mean of Russia to keep marching west every time Europe invades Russia has "marched west" WAY more times than that. And east, and south. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia Just start at 1622, and see how many times "Europe" invaded Russia versus how many times Russia was the one kicking things off. The Poles would probably argue they have status on being the target of Russia "marching west" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partitions_of_Poland
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Jul 4, 2022 09:42
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I would wait until Christo Grozev or Andrei Soldatov confirm such developments like russians using Dirty Dozen recruitment, they use sources in military and Wagner and thus are way more reliable. Loaning out prisoners to do slave labor is a norm in Russia, but every inmate leaves a giant paper trail and sudden deaths would result in an investigation (internal investigators may not care about well-being of inmates but they looooove publicly nailing their brethen for corruption, it makes good reports). https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1543876115667746817?t=ZW0IFcgknuV0S2_MHkO21A&s=19 Meanwhile, Strelkov is doomering about four of the biggest Russian ammo depots being blown up.
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Jul 4, 2022 09:44
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