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VorpalBunny posted:Anyone take a look at the 4chan Hunter Biden dump from tonight? It's all over twitter, but I don't give enough of a poo poo to sift through any of it. I'm just curious if there's anything icky that links back to the President. Has anything bad about Hunter Biden ever been released in a leak like that? The last one was just his nudes from the ancient icloud hack. Do you trust 4chan to tell the truth?
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Jul 11, 2022 06:19
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DeadlyMuffin posted:I see, so you don't have any evidence of what you're claiming. What does the first time she assumed her dad's old House seat have to do with anything? Liz Cheney did not spring into being in 2016 lol. She went to work for the loving Bush State Department in 2002 in a position that was reported as having been created especially for her. She worked on loving destabilizing Iran for them. In between she worked on their 2004 reelection campaign It is absolutely preposterous to suggest she was not 100% simpatico with the Brooks Brothers riot and the stolen election as a whole. To suggest that she might not have been is to just admit your sum knowledge of Liz Cheney comes from birdbrained liberal puff pieces, because looking up her resume on your own takes ten seconds
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Jul 11, 2022 08:32
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The only stuff from the Hunter Biden iCloud thing I've seen that involve Joe are mostly just sad texts where Hunter is scamming him for huge amounts of money by saying he needs it for rehab. The rest of it is standard Hunter Biden - smoking crack in a sensory deprivation tank, calling his step-mom a oval office, a bunch more dick pics of himself, and texts about sleeping with many different women.
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Jul 11, 2022 12:36
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Liz is very obviously a friendly face of the liberal to fascist pipeline since she convinces well meaning liberals to support and argue in favor of a racist bigoted anti-abortion advocate. Her literal current pitch right now is that Democrats should vote for her in her state which just seems like a way to get a bunch of Dems to break the taboo in their brain about voting for someone like Liz.
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Jul 11, 2022 12:37
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Yinlock posted:Considering how eager Democrats are to worship the ground she walks on in exchange for the barest surface-level opposition to Trump I wouldn't say she's politically immolating. She could have easily cruised to re-election and had a safe house seat for life if she had just shut up and kept her head down. She will not have any kind of Fox News gravy train waiting for her. So yeah, I don't feel sorry for her and no one should waste money helping her out, but she accepted the easily-predictable consequences for going after Trump. Her political career is going to be over, and she knew this was her likely fate going into it.
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Jul 11, 2022 12:48
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Who in the world are the 6% https://twitter.com/terellwright2/status/1546463806632648705?s=21&t=DGTrhIRJeVkMJEQ7RgS50A quote:President Biden is facing an alarming level of doubt from inside his own party, with 64 percent of Democratic voters saying they would prefer a new standard-bearer in the 2024 presidential campaign, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, as voters nationwide have soured on his leadership, giving him a meager 33 percent job-approval rating. Do that many dem donors have kids under 30? Also lmao at the random lanyard who has to convince college kids to knock on doors for biden.
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Jul 11, 2022 13:22
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I'd assume those 6% are just people that identify as Dem but aren't plugged in enough to care or name someone else. Honestly 6% is way lower than I would expect from that subset of folks so that seems especially damning.
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Jul 11, 2022 13:25
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No one but Joe Biden wants Joe Biden to be president, but since the democrats are the party of decorum poisoning, centrism, and telling people what they are supposed to want, of course they will be putting their full weight behind him.
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Jul 11, 2022 13:37
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Has either party ever given up on a president so completely that they abandoned an incumbent who wanted to try for re-election?
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Jul 11, 2022 13:49
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Blue Footed Booby posted:Has either party ever given up on a president so completely that they abandoned an incumbent who wanted to try for re-election? LBJ. Although, Johnson was still basically tying with RKF in the polls until he withdrew. So, he wasn't completely given up on. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 13:55 on Jul 11, 2022 |
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Jul 11, 2022 13:52
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FizFashizzle posted:Who in the world are the 6% That whole poll has some pretty crazy results. - Biden is at 33% approval. - Only 13% of Americans think the country is going in the right direction. - 77% say it is going in the wrong direction. - Only 1% of men say abortion rights is the most important problem, but nearly 10x more women say it is. (I don't think I have ever seen the gap that big before, men usually care a little bit less, but not 10x less.) - Only 33% of Democrats have Joe Biden as their first choice for 2024 nominee. The primary reason they want someone else is "Too Old." The next biggest reason is "Job Performance." Only 10% think Biden isn't progressive enough. - Biden still beats Trump if the Presidential election were held today. - #1 biggest problem facing the country is the economy. - Only 1% say the Supreme Court is the biggest problem facing the country. - "The State of Democracy/Political Division" is the #3 biggest problem in the country. - 0% say it is Covid. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 14:30 on Jul 11, 2022 |
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Jul 11, 2022 14:13
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That whole poll has some pretty crazy results. In some areas this sounds like they're polling Republicans or people leaning conservative primarily. 1% is way too low for the abortion thing. Same with the supreme court. Notably there's a constant trend across every reasonably decent poll however where Republicans basically swing hard into believing those things whereas Democrats are far more concerned. Possibly the "biggest problem" may be doing some heavy lifting on the supreme court question however. Archonex fucked around with this message at 14:28 on Jul 11, 2022 |
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Jul 11, 2022 14:20
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Archonex posted:In some areas this sounds like they're polling Republicans or people leaning conservative primarily. 1% is way too low for the abortion thing. Same with the supreme court. Notably there's a constant trend across every poll however where Republicans basically swing hard into believing those things however whereas Democrats are far more concerned. Their demographics sample looks pretty normal and doesn't have an especially Republican lean. The only things that are noticeably a tiny bit off are that their partisan breakdown only gets to 95% for some reason, they slightly undercounted African-Americans, and they slightly undercounted men overall. MoE is 4.1%. Unless their subsamples of Democrats or independents were just incredibly skewed randomly, they all look pretty normal and not skewed especially Republican.
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Jul 11, 2022 14:26
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:- Only 1% of men say abortion rights is an important problem, but nearly 10x more women say it is. (I don't think I have ever seen the gap that big before, men usually care a little bit less, but not 10x less.) Hang on, abortion rights is considered an important problem among 10% of women? How is this question structured?
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Jul 11, 2022 14:29
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:LBJ. My recollection was he voluntarily withdrew rather than the party cutting bait, but I sure as hell didn't check lol Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:...." Only 10% think Biden isn't progressive enough. I wish there were more people studying what different groups of Americans think progressive even means, aside from the periodic chud safari. Ditto for "the economy," really. Like, I don't expect the average American to have a coherent, fully-articulated worldview but it's really clear at this point that people project some wild poo poo onto those terms. Discendo Vox posted:Hang on, abortion rights is considered an important problem among 10% of women? How is this question structured? I'm wondering the same. Asking if something is important is wildly different from asking if it's most important or the prime determining factor. There is no loving way only ten percent consider it an important issue in the "I care about this" sense. Blue Footed Booby fucked around with this message at 14:31 on Jul 11, 2022 |
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Jul 11, 2022 14:29
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Their demographics sample looks pretty normal and doesn't have an especially Republican lean. I mean, other polls have shown a pretty partisan breakdown in the past. Nothing has really changed since then so I don't see why this poll should be having such an insanely lower support rate amongst men for abortion just to go of off of one example. They're absolutely partisan issues due to the religious nihilism and fanaticism of the modern GOP along with the Republican efforts to keep their voters in a media bubble that reinforces whatever the belief is as to the current boogeyman of the culture wars at any given time. So for it to be that low suggests to me that something massive is off in terms of who was polled or the questioning.
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Jul 11, 2022 14:30
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Discendo Vox posted:Hang on, abortion rights is considered an important problem among 10% of women? How is this question structured? Same as the other issue ones: Do you think it is the most important issue? I think "Most" is swinging it a lot, but still pretty wild for women to have 10x more than men on that response. It is the only issue with such a large gender split. Every other issue has men and women nearly identical on that answer. Unfortunately, they don't break down the overall "important' answers to that question. They just do it for the economy and inflation responses by asking if it is "extremely important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important to your vote this November." It says they asked it for every issue, but only provided the breakdown for the economy and inflation. Another interesting thing is that the under 65 age groups care the least about age. It's primarily the 65+ crowd that is concerned about it. 2x to 4x more than the other age groups. Another weird split is that people with a high school education overwhelmingly don't care about age, but people with a graduate degree or higher care over 2x as much. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 14:42 on Jul 11, 2022 |
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Jul 11, 2022 14:34
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FizFashizzle posted:Who in the world are the 6% The breakdown on the why someone else is great:  Olds: He's too old! Everyone else: He loving sucks at his job
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Jul 11, 2022 14:39
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
Over 65 crowd are the most likely to have seen a parent suffer cognitive decline and know it when they see it.
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Jul 11, 2022 14:41
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Blue Footed Booby posted:My recollection was he voluntarily withdrew rather than the party cutting bait, but I sure as hell didn't check lol His television announcement of withdrawal was a bit of a surprise at the time, but obviously he saw that the '68 convention was going to be an absolute poo poo-show, and oh boy was it. The party definitely was not unified behind him, which I think was the original question.
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Jul 11, 2022 14:42
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Blue Footed Booby posted:My recollection was he voluntarily withdrew rather than the party cutting bait, but I sure as hell didn't check lol He voluntarily withdrew because he was losing primaries, was tying in popularity polls with RFK, and many people in the party were openly telling him to step aside and let Hubert Humphry run instead because he was going to either lose the nomination at the convention or cause chaos. It was "voluntary" in the very loosest sense.
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Jul 11, 2022 14:43
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Blue Footed Booby posted:Has either party ever given up on a president so completely that they abandoned an incumbent who wanted to try for re-election? I wouldnt say they're giving up, this timely article points out that all the possible democrat contenders are supporting biden for re-election: https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/11/politics/biden-democratic-primary-challenge-2024/index.html quote:That hasn't stopped muted worries from going around the West Wing, according to four aides familiar with the conversations, that someone may yet emerge ahead of the President's planned spring 2023 formal reelection campaign launch. Biden advisers expect to stick to that no matter what happens, including if Trump decides to jump in early. There is one notable exception--Hillary Clinton. She's the most capable Democrat remaining and she's poised to make her return, dont be surprised to see big things from her coming soon (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 11, 2022 14:47
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FizFashizzle posted:Over 65 crowd are the most likely to have seen a parent suffer cognitive decline and know it when they see it. You'd think that would should in "mental acuity" instead if it was that specifically.
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Jul 11, 2022 14:52
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Rigel posted:She will not have any kind of Fox News gravy train waiting for her. CNN & MSNBC love them some talking heads who are conservative pariahs. She'd fit into either--after she writes her come-to-Jesus autobiography. And that's setting aside any grifting chop-shop or government job she'd get from Democrats. quote:So yeah, I don't feel sorry for her and no one should waste money helping her out, but she accepted the easily-predictable consequences for going after Trump. Her political career is going to be over, and she knew this was her likely fate going into it. The newsrooms, board rooms & NGOs of this country are filled with highly paid former politicians who political careers are now "over."
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Jul 11, 2022 14:59
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The trend of "White House staffer says something dismissively about a policy, then Biden actually does it after the staffer is harshly criticized" seems to be happening again. https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1546406194553954305 In this situation, declaring a public health emergency won't do much and will probably get shut down pretty quickly, but it is still funny that this seems to be the #1 surefire way to get Biden to quickly tack left on an issue. I think the long-term left-wing plan should be to get Neera Tanden appointed as Press Secretary and see how long it takes before Biden nationalizes the oil industry.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:00
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BIG-DICK-BUTT-gently caress posted:There is one notable exception--Hillary Clinton. She's the most capable Democrat remaining and she's poised to make her return, dont be surprised to see big things from her coming soon That has come up before and the potential result can seriously only be described as: lol. Like seriously, a Trump vs Clinton rematch would be probably apocalyptic. Some great fun posting though.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:03
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FizFashizzle posted:Who in the world are the 6% Man, the NYT is really on a roll pushing against Biden 2024, confirming my contention that he'll be facing pressure to step down and will decide to not run for reelection. Yesterday's NYT piece, "At 79, Biden Is Testing the Boundaries of Age and the Presidency," offered a few objections to the idea that he's too old for the job, but the polls are really indicating that it'd take a death wish among Dems to have him run again.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:08
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BIG-DICK-BUTT-gently caress posted:I wouldnt say they're giving up, this timely article points out that all the possible democrat contenders are supporting biden for re-election: My post was a response to a post that suggested the Dems would run Biden because they're decorum elementals, rather than voluntarily giving up the incumbent advantage being a very rare thing for either party. I don't really expect anyone to seriously try to primary Biden, least of all the only person on planet earth to have already lost in the general against Trump. God, why did you put that idea in my head. 
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Jul 11, 2022 15:08
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Willa Rogers posted:Man, the NYT is really on a roll pushing against Biden 2024, confirming my contention that he'll be facing pressure to step down and will decide to not run for reelection.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:19
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Willa Rogers posted:Man, the NYT is really on a roll pushing against Biden 2024, confirming my contention that he'll be facing pressure to step down and will decide to not run for reelection. That very same poll has him beating Trump even with 33% approval and only 13% of Americans saying the country is on the right track. Plus, nobody has actually committed to a primary and you need a challenger to have a challenge. Nobody is going to force him to voluntarily step down for Harris or JB Pritzker. Biden also does not strike me as a the kind of person who can be talked into basically admitting he is a loser. So, even if he wasn't still beating Trump, had some obvious much better successor that everyone agreed on, and everyone really was trying to make him step down, I doubt he would ever do it. That seems like wishcasting because the reality is almost assuredly going to be a boring uncontested primary followed by a relatively close general election.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:20
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That whole poll has some pretty crazy results. Other notables: * 60 percent of those aged 65+ say Biden's too old to run for reelection. Lame recognize lame, so to speak. * One out of every 5 youngs (18-29) say Biden's not progressive enough. * "Domestic terrorism" doesn't even rate a percentage point among entire age groups as the most important problem; it tops out at 1 percent among millennials & xers. * 87 percent of respondents say the economy is fair or poor. * 96 percent of respondents said that the economy will be extremely important or somewhat important to their votes this fall. I don't think I've ever seen an issue garner that degree of unanimity.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:22
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That very same poll has him beating Trump even with 33% approval and only 13% of Americans saying the country is on the right track. I wish we had a polliwonks thread again but this still still bad long term for the Democratic Party. If Biden is deeply unpopular and isn't perceived as doing anything you are creating the circumstances for another Reagan type and losing a generation of Democrats.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:22
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Blue Footed Booby posted:Has either party ever given up on a president so completely that they abandoned an incumbent who wanted to try for re-election? Jimmy Carter was primaried by Ted Kennedy.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:22
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Discendo Vox posted:Hang on, abortion rights is considered an important problem among 10% of women? How is this question structured? "What do you think is the MOST important problem facing the country today?" https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/us0722-crosstabs-nyt071122/33ffa85627ee4648/full.pdf
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Jul 11, 2022 15:26
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BiggerBoat posted:Jimmy Carter was primaried by Ted Kennedy. The party didn't give up on Carter, though. He still ended up thoroughly beating Kennedy and Kennedy never had more than 1/3 of the popular vote or many endorsements from sitting members of Congress.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:27
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That very same poll has him beating Trump even with 33% approval and only 13% of Americans saying the country is on the right track.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:31
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Biden also does not strike me as a the kind of person who can be talked into basically admitting he is a loser. So, even if he wasn't still beating Trump, had some obvious much better successor that everyone agreed on, and everyone really was trying to make him step down, I doubt he would ever do it. That seems like wishcasting because the reality is almost assuredly going to be a boring uncontested primary followed by a relatively close general election. Wishcasting on my part, or on the media's part? I don't see him becoming more mentally acute in the next two years, but I also see him being too stubborn to not run for reelection. The reality is that even though the Sienna poll shows him beating Trump, other polls do not show that. I, personally, am not "wishcasting" the return of Trump, but we really don't know that Trump will be the GOP nominee, how Biden's mental acuity (rather, lack thereof) will fare over the next few years, nor whether Biden's approval rating can recover (or possibly get worse). But my point was that with all the reliably liberal media outlets running these stories about Biden being too old & frail to stand for reelection there are likely people behind the scenes working against his doing so.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:37
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cat botherer posted:Biden still has to overcome the insane gerrymandering and voter suppression landscape that will exist in 2024. Gerrymandering only applies to state elections, the presidential election has a permanent and immutable gerrymander stemming from state borders. Voter suppression and the ISL bullshit is the real problem, especially if Congress changes hands I don't think Trump wins the popular vote, that poll shows that the electorate is still willing to hold their nose for Biden because Trump is just that repellent. A post-Trump smart quiet fascist like DeSantis may be another story
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Jul 11, 2022 15:38
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cat botherer posted:The popular vote itself is less and less relevant. I'd still be surprised if Trump didn't win the popular vote outright, but even if he doesn't, Biden still has to overcome the insane gerrymandering and voter suppression landscape that will exist in 2024. It's entirely possible that it will be to the point that any Dem win is a longshot, even if all of the other stars align perfectly for them. Those are all things that will impact any nominee, though. They wouldn't be specific reasons to get Biden to step down. Gerrymandering also wouldn't impact the Presidential election. Also, I checked previous polls and a majority of people in their own party wanted someone else to run for Obama, George W. Bush, Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and Reagan too. Clinton and Reagan were both up to 2/3 (!!!) of their own party saying they should be primaried right after the '94 and '82 midterms. There isn't really a strong indication that anyone would force Biden to step down/primary him or that he would even want to step down if they did try to make him.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:40
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haveblue posted:Gerrymandering only applies to state elections, the presidential election has a permanent and immutable gerrymander stemming from state borders. Voter suppression and the ISL bullshit is the real problem, especially if Congress changes hands Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Those are all things that will impact any nominee, though. They wouldn't be specific reasons to get Biden to step down. cat botherer fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Jul 11, 2022 |
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Jul 11, 2022 15:40
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