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cat botherer posted:The popular vote itself is less and less relevant. I'd still be surprised if Trump didn't win the popular vote outright but even if he doesn't, Biden still has to overcome the insane gerrymandering and voter suppression landscape that will exist in 2024. It's entirely possible that it will be to the point that any Dem win is a longshot, even if all of the other stars align perfectly for them. It would surprise me. Trump has run in two presidential elections and in both he lost the popular vote by millions. Biden 2024 might be a weak campaign but it's not like Clinton 2016 and Biden 2020 were tigers, and you have the reality that Trump's political base has been disproportionately dying off from covid while Trump himself has only become less charismatic and more mired in scandal. I can see him outperforming Trump 2020 and scratching out a win, but not outperforming Trump 2016. Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Jul 11, 2022 |
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Jul 11, 2022 15:40
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Civilized Fishbot posted:It would surprise me. Trump has run in two presidential elections and in both he lost the popular vote by millions. Biden 2024 might be a weak campaign but it's not like Clinton 2016 and Biden 2020 were tigers, and you have the reality that Trump's political base has been disproportionately dying off from covid while Trump himself has only become less charismatic and more mired in scandal. I can see him outperforming Trump 2020 and scratching out a win, but not outperforming Trump 2016. Trump got a lower percentage of the popular vote in 2016 than he did in 2020. If he outperformed 2020, he would by definition outperform 2016. Both of them were very low popular vote percentages around ~46%. But, he got 0.8% more of the popular vote in 2020.
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Jul 11, 2022 15:48
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump got a lower percentage of the popular vote in 2016 than he did in 2020. If he outperformed 2020, he would by definition outperform 2016. I was thinking about in terms of vote margin vs. closest opponent. In 2016, Clinton beat him by a little under 3 million votes out of about 130 million cast, so Trump lost by like 2.5%. In 2020, Biden beat him by just over 7 million out of about 150 million cast, so Trump lost by like 4.5%. So I estimate that he'll lose the popular vote by somewhere between 2.5% and 4.5%, which is still enough for him to win the EC. Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 15:57 on Jul 11, 2022 |
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Jul 11, 2022 15:55
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Newsom is more likely to win the primary than H. Clinton or Buttigieg. But Buttigieg is more likely to win the Presidency than either of them. He has a clearer path to the nomination. If anything, Biden or Harris voters would throw their support behind Pete, imo.
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Jul 11, 2022 16:24
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drawkcab si eman ym posted:Newsom is more likely to win the primary than H. Clinton or Buttigieg. But Buttigieg is more likely to win the Presidency than either of them. He has a clearer path to the nomination. If anything, Biden or Harris voters would throw their support behind Pete, imo. On what basis are you making these claims?
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Jul 11, 2022 16:29
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 The PredictIt market for the 2024 Democratic Primaries has shifted a bit in the last two weeks with Newsom siphoning off some Biden backers to pass Harris as the (non-incumbent) favorite. That market, which some put some stock behind, is placing Buttegieg 4th. The Republican Primaries side, as you might expect, has Trump and DeSantis neck and neck and no one else in their stratosphere. Does this mean anything, I don't know.
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Jul 11, 2022 16:33
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BIG-DICK-BUTT-gently caress posted:On what basis are you making these claims? The idea that their might be a contested convention in 2024 where H. Clinton or Newsom don't get 50% of primary electors and a backroom deal is made throwing the nomination behind Buttigieg. Crazier stuff has happened though.
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Jul 11, 2022 16:42
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I don’t believe Hillary is going to run. The only people who have been proposing it as a possibility are random Republican commentators.
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Jul 11, 2022 16:58
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Bernie Sanders for dictator pls. Then we can squabble like usual after like 5+ years.
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Jul 11, 2022 17:25
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FlamingLiberal posted:I don’t believe Hillary is going to run. The only people who have been proposing it as a possibility are random Republican commentators. Yeah, I'm pretty sure the only time anyone has even mentioned the possibility of her running were "Former Hillary Campaign Staffers" (who both went on to work for right-wing media outlets), when directly asked she straight up said she wasn't planning on running, and I can't double check because I hate Twitter, but hasn't she been fairly quiet on anything political since she lost in 2016, usually only getting political when people ask her about specific subjects?
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Jul 11, 2022 17:31
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Clinton loving lost to Trump, she's never running again. It's shameful and embarrassing, and nobody serious is actually pushing for her. And it would be in everyone's best interest for her to shut up forever.
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Jul 11, 2022 17:40
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She won't, most politicians never do. And everything she says will be broadcast immediately because she induces white hot rage from the most online people of the right and left.
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Jul 11, 2022 17:44
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I truly believe the idea that Hillary might run again in 2024 is complete nonsense spouted by idiots looking for clicks, but experience is girding me for the possibility that I might, one day in November of 2024, search for and quote this post to laugh at my own naivete
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Jul 11, 2022 17:53
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Discendo Vox posted:I have no idea; some of this is from a CEO who was already ousted for similar or worse behavior, and a lot of it is from several years ago. Going purely off the article, Uber largely completed its "aggressively break all laws and burn money to take over markets" phase and is now in a combination of strategic retreat and consolidation in those jurisdictions where it has managed to choke everyone else out. Following up on the leak of Uber files revealing widespread criminal activity, the leaker has revealed himself: Mark MacGann, the former head of European operations. Video interview with the Guardian at that link.
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Jul 11, 2022 18:20
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drawkcab si eman ym posted:Newsom is more likely to win the primary than H. Clinton or Buttigieg. But Buttigieg is more likely to win the Presidency than either of them. He has a clearer path to the nomination. If anything, Biden or Harris voters would throw their support behind Pete, imo. On what do you base the idea that Pete is a more viable candidate in the general than Newsom? He's never won anything bigger than a small town mayorship and his points of appeal don't appear to translate outside of a few specific subsets of the Democrat primary electorate, and his current job is one of the public faces of a disaster of presidential administration. Also, as Obama himself pointed out, Pete is short. The official claim is 5'9, which as observed with Ben Shapiro and Marco Rubio, is a height point claimed by people shorter than 5'9 who can't pass as average height but don't want to admit they're that far below it. That's the same claimed height as Ron DeSantis, and IMO a big reason I wouldn't expect him to survive a primary fight against Trump. Aesthetics are a huge part of general election appeal and Pete gets absolutely washed in that department by someone like Newsom
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Jul 11, 2022 19:40
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TheIncredulousHulk posted:On what do you base the idea that Pete is a more viable candidate in the general than Newsom? He's never won anything bigger than a small town mayorship and his points of appeal don't appear to translate outside of a few specific subsets of the Democrat primary electorate, and his current job is one of the public faces of a disaster of presidential administration. Also, as Obama himself pointed out, Pete is short. The official claim is 5'9, which as observed with Ben Shapiro and Marco Rubio, is a height point claimed by people shorter than 5'9 who can't pass as average height but don't want to admit they're that far below it. That's the same claimed height as Ron DeSantis, and IMO a big reason I wouldn't expect him to survive a primary fight against Trump. Aesthetics are a huge part of general election appeal and Pete gets absolutely washed in that department by someone like Newsom A contested convention where party bosses reward Pete for his loyalty to the Biden/Harris administration and the party writ large.
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Jul 11, 2022 20:19
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drawkcab si eman ym posted:A contested convention where party bosses reward Pete for his loyalty to the Biden/Harris administration and the party writ large. ??? I'm not talking about how they'd install him as nominee, I'm asking why you think he is a viable candidate in the general. It's literally the first sentence of my post
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Jul 11, 2022 20:36
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drawkcab si eman ym posted:Newsom is more likely to win the primary than H. Clinton or Buttigieg. But Buttigieg is more likely to win the Presidency than either of them. He has a clearer path to the nomination. If anything, Biden or Harris voters would throw their support behind Pete, imo. Newsom is human slime though. I think his popularity outside of CA will be much lower than expected.
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Jul 11, 2022 21:01
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Newsom is human slime though. I think his popularity outside of CA will be much lower than expected. As a fellow West Coaster, I'd keep all Cali politicians out of the national pool.
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Jul 11, 2022 21:17
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TheIncredulousHulk posted:??? An installed candidate is a viable candidate. Bar Ran Dun posted:Newsom is human slime though. I think his popularity outside of CA will be much lower than expected.
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Jul 11, 2022 21:22
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Crows Turn Off posted:Clinton loving lost to Trump, she's never running again. It's shameful and embarrassing, and nobody serious is actually pushing for her. She kind of has. Apart from normal lib-fundraiser-tweeting that every DNC politician does and that weird moment where she posted her winning 2016 speech she and her family have hosed off from politics. And sadly (because this shouldn't be the thing that makes the difference) the biggest reason HRC won't run again might be legitimate fear for her life. Republican still have foaming-at-the-mouth hatred of her, the last go-around Trump all but put a hit out on her talking to his "2nd-amendment people", and the rhetoric has only ramped up since then. At this point it just isn't worth it for her to deal with that stuff.
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Jul 11, 2022 21:54
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haveblue posted:Gerrymandering only applies to state elections, the presidential election has a permanent and immutable gerrymander stemming from state borders. Voter suppression and the ISL bullshit is the real problem, especially if Congress changes hands The candidates gerrymandering favors also shape electoral law in the individual states, it very obviously has an effect. But also, when the Supreme Court abolishes democracy next year, who knows what the next presidential elections will look like.
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Jul 11, 2022 22:04
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BlueBlazer posted:As a fellow West Coaster, I'd keep all Cali politicians out of the national pool. How many states have a further left government overall? Honest question, I know precious little about the local politics in most states.
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Jul 11, 2022 22:29
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Flying-PCP posted:How many states have a further left government overall? Honest question, I know precious little about the local politics in most states. Probably none right now. California has the advantage of being huge, having a massive economy, and basically being a one party state, so they can get things done when they want to. Vermont or Massachusetts would likely be it if they didn't have weird obsessions with voting in left-wing legislatures and moderate Republican Governors. Hawaii, New Jersey, or Washington state are probably the most left-wing current state governments that aren't California; depending on what issues you prioritize. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 22:39 on Jul 11, 2022 |
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Jul 11, 2022 22:34
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Hawaii, [..] [is] probably the most left-wing current state governments that aren't California; depending on what issues you prioritize. any excuse to post this! 
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Jul 11, 2022 22:50
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drawkcab si eman ym posted:An installed candidate is a viable candidate. ??????? Your original contention was "Pete is the best candidate for the general in 2024" Responding with "they could install him at the convention" when asked how you arrived at this conclusion is not an explanation of your reasoning dude
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Jul 11, 2022 22:51
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Flying-PCP posted:How many states have a further left government overall? Honest question, I know precious little about the local politics in most states. Washington
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Jul 12, 2022 00:05
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HonorableTB posted:Washington And yet we still have no income tax and one of the worst sets of sales taxes impacting the poor. We are a land of contrasts. I AM GRANDO posted:Was anybody excited about Biden in 2020? In my circle it was grim resignation all the way. Even in this thread, was there anyone during the primary or after who thought Biden was best or who had enthusiasm for him? I'm sure there was? I mean there were people unironically excited about Hilary and I'm sure some of that energy plus strong feelings on Obama must have energized... somebody, but I struggle to find a real world example.
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Jul 12, 2022 00:06
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Was anybody excited about Biden in 2020? In my circle it was grim resignation all the way. Even in this thread, was there anyone during the primary or after who thought Biden was best or who had enthusiasm for him?
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Jul 12, 2022 00:06
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Mendrian posted:And yet we still have no income tax and one of the worst sets of sales taxes impacting the poor. Even California has stupid retro poo poo like Medicaid clawback for 55+, "fetal protection" laws, and Prop. 13 for businesses. eta: plus the death penalty, for chrissake.
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Jul 12, 2022 00:09
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New Jersey's solid blue but it feels extremely tenuous sometimes, and we are almost certainly going to elect a Republican governor when Murphy's second term is up
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Jul 12, 2022 00:09
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I didn't realize that NJ was considered like a blue stronghold or example like CA and WA. That's impressive to pull off after (or maybe because of?) Chris Christie, who is to my knowledge the only NJ politician I know about.
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Jul 12, 2022 00:13
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Willa Rogers posted:Even California has stupid retro poo poo like Medicaid clawback for 55+, "fetal protection" laws, and Prop. 13 for businesses. Right. What I'm saying is "farthest left state government" is a bar buried somewhere in the ocean.
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Jul 12, 2022 00:15
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projecthalaxy posted:I didn't realize that NJ was considered like a blue stronghold or example like CA and WA. That's impressive to pull off after (or maybe because of?) Chris Christie, who is to my knowledge the only NJ politician I know about. People inexplicably loved Christie because he was exactly the guy you meet like 15 times a day in New Jersey. He was like a sentient jughandle.
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Jul 12, 2022 00:15
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projecthalaxy posted:I didn't realize that NJ was considered like a blue stronghold or example like CA and WA. That's impressive to pull off after (or maybe because of?) Chris Christie, who is to my knowledge the only NJ politician I know about. New Jersey has a habit of electing Republican governors, probably in no small part because our gubernatorial election occurs in off years (the year after the presidential). Murphy was the first Democratic governor to win reelection here in a long time. Edit: Also what Jaxyon said. Christie had appeal on both sides of the aisle here for a while. There was a very brief period there where it looked as though he could've pulled the Republican nomination. Toaster Beef fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Jul 12, 2022 |
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Jul 12, 2022 00:23
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projecthalaxy posted:I didn't realize that NJ was considered like a blue stronghold or example like CA and WA. That's impressive to pull off after (or maybe because of?) Chris Christie, who is to my knowledge the only NJ politician I know about. Blue states love electing Republican governors to "balance" poo poo or something, I don't know. I'm not surprised that nobody is stepping up to seriously challenge Biden, it's a no-win scenario. Facing a serious primary challenger in the first place means that the party is in such a weak position that they're almost certainly going to lose the Presidency, so all that challenging Biden gets you is the stink of a loser and getting declared persona non grata by the party. If Biden does end up stepping aside it'll be be mutually decided by the DNC behind the scenes.
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Jul 12, 2022 00:26
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Mendrian posted:Right. Agreed.* Neoliberalism & state-based austerity has done a number on public services, which became incredibly apparent at the beginning of the pandemic & beyond, when we learned the extent to which things like processes for unemployment claims had been fubar'd by consultancies paid millions to design them. *MODS, I'm clarifying that I wasn't arguing against Mendrian's post, not "cheerleading." Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 00:52 on Jul 12, 2022 |
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Jul 12, 2022 00:27
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projecthalaxy posted:I didn't realize that NJ was considered like a blue stronghold or example like CA and WA. That's impressive to pull off after (or maybe because of?) Chris Christie, who is to my knowledge the only NJ politician I know about. Northeastern voters seem to have this weird attitude of "We shouldn't ever let those Republican assholes run everything.... buuuut you need a check in there somewhere so that the Democrats don't just go crazy with the budget". There always seems to be some random Republican governors somewhere in the northeast that you normally think shouldn't be there. Right now we have Republican governors in MD, MA, NH, and VT On the other side of it we somehow have Democrats in KS, KY, and LA. Kansas I can explain since I'm in the area, the GOP just wrecked the state SO AMAZINGLY BADLY that the people voted for a Democrat out of sheer desperation to finally end the stupid "cut all the taxes for job growth" experiment to get the government funded. She'll probably get tossed right back out this November.
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Jul 12, 2022 00:28
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Using EMTALA is clever because it threatens hospital medicare reimbursement. https://twitter.com/ap/status/1546605593011650561?s=21&t=RXmAEaOsl_-_tny_sxmkZQ quote:WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration on Monday told hospitals that they “must” provide abortion services if the life of the mother is at risk, saying federal law on emergency treatment guidelines preempts state laws in jurisdictions that now ban the procedure without any exceptions following the Supreme Court’s decision to end a constitutional right to abortion. EMTALA is a lot of things but basically if someone comes in to the er they get evaluated regardless of ability to pay. If they require advanced care they get it, and if the hospital can’t provide they have agreements with higher lvl facilities that can. Hospitals that break this law risk losing Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement and huge fines.
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Jul 12, 2022 00:30
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Jaxyon posted:People inexplicably loved Christie because he was exactly the guy you meet like 15 times a day in New Jersey. The Dems (and their fellow travellers around the world) need to realize: that poo poo counts even if you can't quantify it. Fetterman should give them a clue, I hope. Democratically elected politicians represent us. That's literally the definition of their job, that's why the exist. People we cannot relate to, and who do not attempt to relate to us, will suffer at the ballot box. And, here's the great thing: you can totally fake it! Look at GWB and Trump and BoJo! They're rich assholes who don't give a gently caress about you, and have no idea what your life is like, and they'd kill themselves if they had to switch places with you, but they learned to fake it. It's not debate club, you can't win just by having the best argument. You should, as a general principle, do right by the people you represent and by society as a whole, but that's not sufficient to guarantee electoral victory.
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