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ZombieLenin posted:https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1547670748197556225 I haven’t been able to find non-Ukrainian sources for this story yet. Groda posted:Vreditelstvo? Are you asking for translation of something?
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Jul 15, 2022 14:09
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Rogozin officially out!quote:8:30 am ET Friday Update: The Kremlin has made it official in a short communique—Dmitry Rogozin is out as director general of the country's state-owned space corporation, Roscosmos. The decree is effective immediately. Former Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov will replace Rogozin. No idea if that's a good or a bad thing since I don't know Borisov but I think it's safe to assume he's not a nice guy either
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Jul 15, 2022 14:09
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ZombieLenin posted:https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1547670748197556225 Hilarious if true. These things were always lauded as the cutting edge of Russian artillery.
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Jul 15, 2022 14:09
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ZombieLenin posted:https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1547670748197556225 Geraschenko is an extremely unreliable source, would need a proper confirmation.
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Jul 15, 2022 14:11
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Weird mix of stuff from yesterday and today. Lots of articles in this one Good. Doubt it'll work but slowing things down is good imo https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1547877692728430592?s=20&t=V9TTYFq5xH-A1Tbmmcblhw Longread but worthwhile. The site in general is good for Russia-sourced stuff since most of us here (though less commonly in this thread) are English speaking https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1547890627660025861?s=20&t=V9TTYFq5xH-A1Tbmmcblhw The thread has excerpts but the kicker sums things up imo https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1547890649826861058?s=20&t=V9TTYFq5xH-A1Tbmmcblhw Link:https://wartranslated.com/pro-russian-source-on-the-inevitability-of-the-mobilisation-in-russia/ Another confirmation of Rogozin getting fired, and an apparent rumor regarding his next position https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1547928571301179399?s=20&t=V9TTYFq5xH-A1Tbmmcblhw More ammo depot hits, and Russia successfully denazified a couple universities. https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1547860906054340609?s=20&t=V9TTYFq5xH-A1Tbmmcblhw Long thread on the game Moscow might be playing in Belarus - worth the full read imo but I pulled excerpts https://twitter.com/dmrachnik/status/1542826577284796422?s=20&t=V9TTYFq5xH-A1Tbmmcblhw https://twitter.com/dmrachnik/status/1542832106581245954?s=20&t=V9TTYFq5xH-A1Tbmmcblhw https://twitter.com/dmrachnik/status/1542832574007066626?s=20&t=V9TTYFq5xH-A1Tbmmcblhw This loving sucks. https://twitter.com/jacklosh/status/1547905597059715075?s=20&t=V9TTYFq5xH-A1Tbmmcblhw Also the potential deal in the works in Turkey won't fix everything with grain exports - it won't surprise you to learn that shipping out of cities being bombed is hard https://twitter.com/kannbwx/status/1547659917309251584?s=20&t=V9TTYFq5xH-A1Tbmmcblhw quote:Speaking about Ukrainian grain, Rich said he expected the country to produce more than originally anticipated. The winter harvest is expected to bring in 30 million tonnes, two-thirds wheat and the rest rapeseed and barley. Wagner recruiting is expanding - https://www.rferl.org/a/covert-mobilization-reinforce-russian-troops-ukraine/31943783.html https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1547866271122722816?s=20&t=V9TTYFq5xH-A1Tbmmcblhw Again, long read but worth it quote:"Wanted: men between 20 and 55 years old to serve as volunteer contract soldiers; starting salary 200,000 rubles ($3,400) a month. Contact the Odintsovo military recruitment center." Edit: On consideration the tweet image is the header image for the article and isn't explicit, but does show body bags so I removed it. Warning for that when opening the article Link - https://osce.usmission.gov/response-to-moscow-mechanism-report-on-ukraine/ Funny/not funny to close https://twitter.com/scrapsofmoscow/status/1547928550010785796?s=20&t=V9TTYFq5xH-A1Tbmmcblhw KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 15:06 on Jul 15, 2022 |
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Jul 15, 2022 15:03
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Dirt5o8 posted:Outside of the current sanctions, what can realistically be done against Russian war criminals? I can see funds set aside from seized assets being transferred to the families of victims but Russia being a nuclear power seems like it will shield most of the accused. As long as they're hanging out in Ukraine you can locate their cell phone and send a missile. ZombieLenin posted:https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1547670748197556225 It seems wildly improbable that China never bothered to do a couple test shots at various types of targets.
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Jul 15, 2022 15:43
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Fidelitious posted:Yeah, it makes for good spy movies but the entire concept of "spy posing as local" has always seemed implausible to me. I'm not saying it's impossible but there are plenty of people who have moved to say Italy or France from elsewhere in Europe or the US, lived there for 20 years, and everyone they meet will still know immediately that they're not from there. You need someone who was born and raised in said target country or rare cases like Reilly. Other than that it makes far more sense to create a cover story that still includes them being a foreigner, because why not take the easier route? For some comic relief, over here in Ireland, we have the (alleged) story of that WW2 german spy trained to impersonate the locals after impeccable language and customs training. And yet, he got arrested immediately after the locals reported him to the authorities. It might have had something to do with his Afrika Korps tan...
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Jul 15, 2022 15:48
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ZombieLenin posted:https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1547670748197556225 Yeah, not sure there is. I haven't seen, nor can find, anything to suggest those systems are effective against M142 rockets, which are distinct from missiles, and I don't believe they were advertised as anti-rocket systems. So probably nonsense news.
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Jul 15, 2022 16:48
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The fact the systems exist, operate and do something (even if with poor effectiveness), must put them fairly low down on the Official Russian Corruption and Grift Scale. They should get a ton of medals for not selling empty tubes with old VCRs welded to the side.
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Jul 15, 2022 16:56
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Replacing the rocket fuel with used cat litter I imagine the smell should be right
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Jul 15, 2022 17:10
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KitConstantine posted:(Armchair Warlord is a pro-Russia twitter guy who apparently wrote some real gross poo poo. I haven't looked into it) Balding dude writing loli fanfics, I followed the drama on Twitter yesterday as it went down.
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Jul 15, 2022 17:54
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Fidelitious posted:Yeah, it makes for good spy movies but the entire concept of "spy posing as local" has always seemed implausible to me. I'm not saying it's impossible but there are plenty of people who have moved to say Italy or France from elsewhere in Europe or the US, lived there for 20 years, and everyone they meet will still know immediately that they're not from there. You need someone who was born and raised in said target country or rare cases like Reilly. Other than that it makes far more sense to create a cover story that still includes them being a foreigner, because why not take the easier route? There was a recent high profile spying case where a Russian spy moved to Ireland and enrolled in a top Irish university as a "Brazilian". Which was believable given there are loads of Brazilians in Ireland, and also because they have funny accents and have some very white people. And because universities get loads of foreign students. He did a full legitimate 4 year degree, then moved to the Netherlands and was accepted for a job in the International Criminal Court as a Brazilian-Irish person with a legitimate degree, multinational background story etc. That seems to be the type of spying model used in the real world. "His arrival was to coincide with the beginning of ICC investigations into alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Had Mr Cherkasov succeeded, he would have had ready access to the court’s email systems and might have been able to copy, tamper with or destroy documents or evidence submitted." https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/06/17/russian-spy-exposed-trying-to-infiltrate-icc-studied-in-trinity/
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Jul 15, 2022 18:45
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Blut posted:There was a recent high profile spying case where a Russian spy moved to Ireland and enrolled in a top Irish university as a "Brazilian". Which was believable given there are loads of Brazilians in Ireland, and also because they have funny accents and have some very white people. And because universities get loads of foreign students. He did a full legitimate 4 year degree, then moved to the Netherlands and was accepted for a job in the International Criminal Court as a Brazilian-Irish person with a legitimate degree, multinational background story etc. That seems to be the type of spying model used in the real world. Was this the guy whose paperwork would have instantly outed him as a fake if an actual Brazilian had ever looked at it?
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Jul 15, 2022 18:48
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HIMARS has some company https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1547965132000530434?s=20&t=gAZn3XtgiojVq658et3NDg I remember during the last DoD briefing, they were asked about training Ukrainian pilots on Western aircraft and the DoD said that wasn't happening. I wonder if they were just waiting for funding. https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1547911286649786368?s=20&t=gAZn3XtgiojVq658et3NDg
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Jul 15, 2022 19:16
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https://nos.nl/artikel/2436847-nederland-gaat-in-vk-op-grote-schaal-oekraiense-militairen-opleidengoogle translate posted:The Netherlands will train Ukrainian soldiers on a large scale in the UK
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Jul 15, 2022 19:32
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Hosting thousands of troops of a warring party seems like stretching the definition of nonparticipation in a war a bit
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Jul 15, 2022 19:42
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I don't know how well they tried to fit in, but the US busted a ring of spies "posing as ordinary American citizens" recently. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegals_Program quote:Two of the individuals used the names of Richard and Cynthia Murphy and resided in Hoboken, New Jersey, in the mid-1990s, before purchasing a nearby home in suburban Montclair. Another couple named in court documents were journalist Vicky Peláez and Mikhail Vasenkov (using the alias Juan Lazaro) in Yonkers, New York. The court filings allege that couples were arranged in Russia to "co-habit in the country to which they are assigned," going as far as having children together to help maintain their deep covert status.
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Jul 15, 2022 19:45
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aphid_licker posted:Hosting thousands of troops of a warring party seems like stretching the definition of nonparticipation in a war a bit I forgot history started in 2021. We've been doing this poo poo for hundreds of years it isn't a big ~change~ in operating procedure
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Jul 15, 2022 19:48
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aphid_licker posted:Hosting thousands of troops of a warring party seems like stretching the definition of nonparticipation in a war a bit Yeah, but what's Russia going to do about it? Complain that this is really a war between Russia and the West? Oh wait. That's the downside of your propaganda claiming the other side isn't playing fair; it removes much of the incentive for them not to go ahead and do it.
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Jul 15, 2022 19:49
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The X-man cometh posted:I don't know how well they tried to fit in, but the US busted a ring of spies "posing as ordinary American citizens" recently. Wasn't the premise of the TV show The Americans something like this?
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Jul 15, 2022 19:50
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aphid_licker posted:Hosting thousands of troops of a warring party seems like stretching the definition of nonparticipation in a war a bit Reminder that much of Europe is legally obligated to help defend Ukraine in light of the deculearization agreement. Russia fully knew that when they invaded, they just catastrophically underestimated how tangible it would be.
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Jul 15, 2022 19:52
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Mr. Apollo posted:https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1547911286649786368?s=20&t=gAZn3XtgiojVq658et3NDg Anyone have any idea how many pilots this might be? Quick googling shows costs of between $5,000/hour and $50,000/hour (F-35), and NATO pilots get something like 180 hours/year.
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Jul 15, 2022 19:53
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aphid_licker posted:Hosting thousands of troops of a warring party seems like stretching the definition of nonparticipation in a war a bit It's not a war, it's a special military operation, and a country in peacetime can, of course, send soldiers for joint training operations freely.
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Jul 15, 2022 20:01
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Ynglaur posted:Anyone have any idea how many pilots this might be? Quick googling shows costs of between $5,000/hour and $50,000/hour (F-35), and NATO pilots get something like 180 hours/year. This RAND report from 2019 (https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2400/RR2415/RAND_RR2415.pdf) said the average cost of training a F-16 pilot was $5.6 million. Since these are experienced pilots and just need to be familiarized with the aircraft it might be less. quote:We found that training cost per pilot is significant across platforms. The cost of training a basic qualified fighter pilot ranges from $5.6 million for an F-16 pilot to $10.9 million for an F-22 pilot. Bomber pilot training cost is also high, ranging from $7.3 million for a B-1 pilot to $9.7 million for a B-52 pilot. Costs for training transport pilots and mobility pilots are somewhat lower, but still considerable, ranging from $1.1 million for a C-17 pilot to $2.5 million for a C-130J pilot. Training cost per pilot for command, control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations (e.g., the RC-135) is about $5.5 million.
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Jul 15, 2022 20:01
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Reminder that much of Europe is legally obligated to help defend Ukraine in light of the deculearization agreement. Russia fully knew that when they invaded, they just catastrophically underestimated how tangible it would be. They aren't actually legally obligated - even the US and UK, as participants to the Budapest Memorandum, only agreed not to invade Ukraine and to bring up assistance to Ukraine in the UN if they were invaded (which was done). Russia also agreed to those things, of course, but expecting Russia to honor its agreements is long past laughable at this point. What the US and UK, as well as others are is motivated to do so. Even if the agreement doesn't require anything it's a situation that makes Ukraine much more sympathetic, and there are strong arguments to be made for why you should set a precedent that giving up nuclear weapons will get you preferential treatment in the future. Putin didn't likely expect that to sway anyone, and I suspect honestly was surprised when the invasion got such a response.
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Jul 15, 2022 20:02
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That's a good point: it doesn't legally obligate, though by a similar token it does also make a response legal and there's a lot of room to continue interpreting 'security assurance' in increasingly robust terms. Particularly as Russia descends further into violation of every term of the original agreement. The original intention was to use the term 'security guarantee' but that was walked back because there was uncertainty whether or not the US senate would ratify a treaty to that effect.Bremen posted:What the US and UK, as well as others are is motivated to do so. Even if the agreement doesn't require anything it's a situation that makes Ukraine much more sympathetic, and there are strong arguments to be made for why you should set a precedent that giving up nuclear weapons will get you preferential treatment in the future. Putin didn't likely expect that to sway anyone, and I suspect honestly was surprised when the invasion got such a response. yeah 100%. The UK's fairly substantial response is interesting insofar as no NATO clause has been invoked, there's no EU mutual defense agreement pushing them to do anything, sure they have some national interest in Russia not going full expansionist, but they're also one of the most insulated countries in europe from that threat. There's OSCE expectations, though idk how concrete those actually are in practice. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 20:27 on Jul 15, 2022 |
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Jul 15, 2022 20:19
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Who loving cares at this point what Russia thinks about it. If they actually wanted a war with NATO they would've started one.
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Jul 15, 2022 20:42
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Dnipro was apparently the main city on Russia's list today. Video below is of the (distant, thankfully) aftermath of 3 cruise missile strikes, with a 4th caught in the video flying in for another https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1548031848906797056?s=20&t=V5SVfqFpUnYHnFbXLZnryQ So far it appears that all the strikes were on residential areas. 3 dead 15 wounded so far but this just happened. Probably another good night for the less broke brained among you to avoid Ukraine twitter as closer videos of the aftermath are already popping up To be clear I am including myself among the broke brained and even I will be applying some mental lubrication (wine and or cocktails) this evening
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Jul 15, 2022 21:33
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aphid_licker posted:Hosting thousands of troops of a warring party seems like stretching the definition of nonparticipation in a war a bit What war? e;fb
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Jul 15, 2022 21:41
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aphid_licker posted:Hosting thousands of troops of a warring party seems like stretching the definition of nonparticipation in a war a bit As others have noted, russia is stretching the definition of nonparticipation in war. On top of that, the consequence of fermenting a casual but persistent disregard for any consistency or adherence to agreements or convention while screaming hysterically about any real or invented violation of anyone else is that russia has no workable consequence to levy for their bitterness at getting bloodied in the exact sort of proxy warfare they love to participate in
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Jul 15, 2022 21:57
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mobby_6kl posted:Who loving cares at this point what Russia thinks about it. If they actually wanted a war with NATO they would've started one. Yeah and moreover Russia has murdered people in the streets of London, Berlin and Vienna, blown up ammo warehouses in the Czech Republic, orchestrated hacking attacks on Estonia, tried to coup Montenegro and on and on and on. What we're supposed to pretend there some kind of relationship worth preserving?
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Jul 15, 2022 22:43
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aphid_licker posted:Hosting thousands of troops of a warring party seems like stretching the definition of nonparticipation in a war a bit
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Jul 15, 2022 23:14
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aphid_licker posted:Hosting thousands of troops of a warring party seems like stretching the definition of nonparticipation in a war a bit No it doesn’t. Now allowing a belligerent in an armed conflict to launch missiles, artillery, and air strikes from your country—aka Belarus—stretches that definition very thin. The things I see on Twitter and elsewhere from people tangentially associated with the Ukrainian military have started to give me the feeling that some discussion might be going on about whether or not it’s actually worth it long term for Ukraine to ‘keep Belarus out of the war’ by allowing the Russian Federation to use Belarus as a tool to for the Russian military to avoid being shot at while it shoots Ukraine.
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Jul 15, 2022 23:17
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aphid_licker posted:Hosting thousands of troops of a warring party seems like stretching the definition of nonparticipation in a war a bit Remember, according to wikipedia Sweden was an active supporter of the north Vietnamese, but Ukraine fights alone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
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Jul 15, 2022 23:28
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Owling Howl posted:Yeah and moreover Russia has murdered people in the streets of London, Berlin and Vienna, blown up ammo warehouses in the Czech Republic, orchestrated hacking attacks on Estonia, tried to coup Montenegro and on and on and on. What we're supposed to pretend there some kind of relationship worth preserving? "Affairs of State" promote national interests, or degrade those who would threaten the state, and all these activities you describe can also be described as "affairs of state." Morality has no relevance in such undertakings, again, only national interest and it is naive to ascribe moral qualities to them. This is not my view. But it is one held by states, variously, depending on the outcomes they prefer at the moment. Biden shaking hands with MBS, for instance, recognizes this principle because it is now convenient to forget the earlier view, that MBS will be "made a pariah" (Biden's words). An affair of state. Putin's predation of Ukraine is this idea writ very large indeed and pretty much encapsulates imperialist Great Power thinking. Children's corpses, cities leveled - this are unhappy events, to be sure, but the state is acting and there can be no judge. The state is sovereign and has no judge.
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Jul 15, 2022 23:28
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Bremen posted:They aren't actually legally obligated - even the US and UK, as participants to the Budapest Memorandum, only agreed not to invade Ukraine and to bring up assistance to Ukraine in the UN if they were invaded (which was done). Russia also agreed to those things, of course, but expecting Russia to honor its agreements is long past laughable at this point. Think about this for a second. That agreement was in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear deterrent, and you seriously believe that the intention of the treaty was “signatories are only required to bring up any hostile invasion of before the UN Security Council” and once that’s done, “obligation met!”? I highly doubt that is how the Ukrainians viewed that treaty when they signed it and gave up their nuclear weapons.
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Jul 15, 2022 23:57
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FishBulbia posted:Remember, according to wikipedia Sweden was an active supporter of the north Vietnamese, but Ukraine fights alone. Boy that's silly. The latest request for comment on the topic couldn't reach a consensus but it seems pretty wacky not to have any of Ukraine's international supporters on there.
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Jul 16, 2022 00:12
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the popes toes posted:"Affairs of State" promote national interests, or degrade those who would threaten the state, and all these activities you describe can also be described as "affairs of state." Morality has no relevance in such undertakings, again, only national interest and it is naive to ascribe moral qualities to them. I'm not talking about morality. I'm saying Russia is a lovely neighbor that doesn't give a poo poo about having a good relationship with us. It's comical to be worried about their feelings when the status quo before the invasion was open hostility.
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Jul 16, 2022 00:21
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Mr. Apollo posted:wonder if they were just waiting for funding. Where would they take off from? Does Ukraine have any functional air fields? Have they cloned the ghost?
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