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Mia Wasikowska posted:Yeah but like... forgive me if I've missed something, but what is Germany going to do about gas? There is an extraordinary political and economic realignment occurring that is and will continue to be painful. Victis posted:That and Vietnam, but those were both pretty drat unpopular wars in the US. If you essentially control public opinion can’t you just say “We won! Our boys are coming home?” Even an oppressive dictatorship has a hard time reframing "everyone's coming home without achieving the goals of the invasion," also known as defeat.
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Jul 16, 2022 22:37
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https://twitter.com/defencegreece_m/status/1548410661931167747?cxt=HHwWhsCt7eHSh_0qAAAA
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Jul 16, 2022 22:38
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Uh, what? Serbia to... Jordan?
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Jul 16, 2022 22:43
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Young Freud posted:Are we sure they're even running inside? They could be behind the drat thing. That's what it looked like where the one guy who was standing on top went off to. Yeah, I doubt it would even be possible to enter the vehicle after a penetration without wearing a gas mask. You absolutely couldn't breathe there, so much foul stuff in the air. It never even entered my mind that the OP would have suggested that someone would have gone inside because... how? quote:I thought it was SOP in Warsaw Pact forces NOT to ride in BTR-70/80s because they were known deathtraps if they hit a mine or something, because you'd get thrown around inside and break bones or a neck. I wouldn't go that far. Soviets in Afghanistan in some cases? Probably, in similar way that US troops rode on top of M113's in Vietnam where there was a risk of hitting a mine. But none of those were a normal SOP for either NATO or Warsaw Pact. If it was then they would have ridden on flatbed trucks. Mujahideen and VietCong just didn't have much in the way of artillery. Plus it was hot. Air conditioning in military vehicles was not a thing back then. You could choose between hot air, or hotter air.
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Jul 16, 2022 22:46
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So Germany will deliberately run itself into an energy crisis of unprecedented scale instead of reactivating their nuclear plants for, say, five more years?
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Jul 16, 2022 22:52
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MassiveSky posted:So Germany will deliberately run itself into an energy crisis of unprecedented scale instead of reactivating their nuclear plants for, say, five more years? The main shortfall is on actual gas applications, rather than gas-produced electricity. Also, they’ve intentionally ruined some of their reactors so that they couldn’t be reactivated without refurbishing or rebuilding some of the more expensive parts.
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Jul 16, 2022 22:55
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OddObserver posted:Uh, what? Serbia to... Jordan? More details here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cargo-plane-crashes-near-greeces-northern-city-kavala-2022-07-16/ Seems it was a cargo plane owned by Ukrainians. No reports as to exact cargo - ammunition seems to be speculation at this point due to secondary explosions. It may be completely unrelated to that, who knows.
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Jul 16, 2022 22:55
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^^^ makes more sense OddObserver posted:Uh, what? Serbia to... Jordan? I'm sure Defencegreece-Media knows what they're talking about.
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Jul 16, 2022 22:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Also, they’ve intentionally ruined some of their reactors so that they couldn’t be reactivated without refurbishing or rebuilding some of the more expensive parts. I'm so glad the new NorLink sea-cables are up so that we get to drain our hydro reserves to stop these idiots from killing themselves.
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Jul 16, 2022 23:20
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The main shortfall is on actual gas applications, rather than gas-produced electricity. Also, they’ve intentionally ruined some of their reactors so that they couldn’t be reactivated without refurbishing or rebuilding some of the more expensive parts. What was the thinking? Why go scorched earth?
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Jul 16, 2022 23:25
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MassiveSky posted:So Germany will deliberately run itself into an energy crisis of unprecedented scale instead of reactivating their nuclear plants for, say, five more years? Germany looks like it's sitting right on the separation between the two developing trade blocs. Will be interesting if they cut some special deal with BRICS or just go through a cold German winter without heat.
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Jul 16, 2022 23:29
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MassiveSky posted:So Germany will deliberately run itself into an energy crisis of unprecedented scale instead of reactivating their nuclear plants for, say, five more years? The official EU plan is to reduce dependency on Russian gas in the EU by two thirds by the end if the year. Gas shortage is „only“ a worry for this year. After that Russian gas will have an effect on world prices, but there will no longer be an actual danger of running out. cinci zoo sniper posted:Also, they’ve intentionally ruined some of their reactors so that they couldn’t be reactivated without refurbishing or rebuilding some of the more expensive parts.
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Jul 16, 2022 23:29
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Rinkles posted:What was the thinking? Why go scorched earth?
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Jul 16, 2022 23:30
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Rinkles posted:What was the thinking? Why go scorched earth? I'd blame boomers, but germans on reddit are equally vocal about nuclear = bad and now that they've finally slain the windmill we've been tilting at for decades., it cannot be raised again.
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Jul 16, 2022 23:30
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DTurtle posted:When I asked about this in the energy megathread I was told (and linked to documentation) that those measures are standard decontamination measures. I‘m sure that you can show some proof that it was instead deliberate destruction in order to stop recommissioning. Seems the same thing to me. Decontaminating a nuclear kettle would involve intentionally removing and damaging expensive bits. Like reactor vessels and things.
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Jul 16, 2022 23:38
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Get over the dumb nukes already you dorks, it was dumb to get out of them but by now they're a sideshow. Gas in Germany is used for industrial and residential heat and as an industrial input. 3% of German gas consumption is used by BASF to make base chemicals like ammonia etc. Currently we're discussing whether beer production - which needs to boil shitloads of water - is an essential industry. None of this is easily convertible to zomg pure nerd energy.
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Jul 16, 2022 23:40
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Sodomy Hussein posted:This was the U.S. Afghanistan policy for 20 years, wars are much more politically difficult to give up on than they are to start. The number of American troops in Afghanistan was a very small portion of the total US military. Russia sent almost their entire army into Ukraine and hasn't gotten anywhere.
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Jul 16, 2022 23:41
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aphid_licker posted:Get over the dumb nukes already you dorks, it was dumb to get out of them but by now they're a sideshow. Gas in Germany is used for industrial and residential heat and as an industrial input. 3% of German gas consumption is used by BASF to make base chemicals like ammonia etc. Currently we're discussing whether beer production - which needs to boil shitloads of water - is an essential industry. None of this is easily convertible to zomg pure nerd energy. If you had any sense you'd boil the water using shitcoin mining rigs.
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Jul 16, 2022 23:43
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DTurtle posted:When I asked about this in the energy megathread I was told (and linked to documentation) that those measures are standard decontamination measures. I‘m sure that you can show some proof that it was instead deliberate destruction in order to stop recommissioning. Nah, I’m good. I was just recalling the last time we talked about in this thread, that was what people were saying. Looking at governmental documentation, that’s must’ve been simple confusion around decontamination procedures, or a turn of phrase that I did misinterpret.
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Jul 16, 2022 23:44
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The major concern to russia regarding "use energy crisis to wear down western states into compliance" as a strategy is that the longer this goes on the less likely you are to want to ever RE-tether yourself to russian energy
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Jul 16, 2022 23:53
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Pretty sure that’s already at point of no return, but if it isn’t then a winter of “thanks Russia” on TV will cement that with popular opinion of all but a few EU members.
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Jul 16, 2022 23:56
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Russia probably expected that the threat of turning off gas would be enough to ensure compliance during and after the envisioned three-day op, and that the reaction would quickly die down afterwards bc whatcha gonna do about it now that it's done. Don't think they expected to have to go through with it. Both sides are in a bit of uncharted water economically atm and probably not going to be too comfortable in half a year
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Jul 17, 2022 00:09
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aphid_licker posted:Russia probably expected that the threat of turning off gas would be enough to ensure compliance during and after the envisioned three-day op, and that the reaction would quickly die down afterwards bc whatcha gonna do about it now that it's done. Don't think they expected to have to go through with it. Both sides are in a bit of uncharted water economically atm and probably not going to be too comfortable in half a year EU, western and European messaging on the issue should shape a unified body projecting strength, and energy support for each other. Putin still believes he has cards to play and he really needs to be disabused. The political motto should be "gently caress Your Russian Gas".
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Jul 17, 2022 00:16
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https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1548269133300543499?t=LUbfsEL6KF35b1FKIHTvHQ&s=19
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Jul 17, 2022 00:29
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Payndz posted:Horrible feeling that a certain contingent within the German government went "Surely nothing will ever happen to disrupt our supply of cheap gas from our good friends in Russia, so let's keep them happy and go all-in!" The capitalists thought they could moderate Russian politics with western money.
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Jul 17, 2022 00:33
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Anyone have a sense of how the German public feels about all this? Probably a whole lot of justified anger and fear, but I hope people aren't thinking that Ukraine is not worth it.
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Jul 17, 2022 00:42
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Rinkles posted:Anyone have a sense of how the German public feels about all this? Probably a whole lot of justified anger and fear, but I hope people aren't thinking that Ukraine is not worth it. Germany can get very cold. I think if there is support for maintaining the sanctions, it will be sorely tested if this war lasts till winter.
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Jul 17, 2022 00:45
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Rinkles posted:Anyone have a sense of how the German public feels about all this? Probably a whole lot of justified anger and fear, but I hope people aren't thinking that Ukraine is not worth it. Maybe 2/3rds - 1/3rd split generic vague support for Ukraine vs is letting Russia win really that bad Cpt_Obvious posted:Germany can get very cold. It doesn't really get that cold anymore here tbh aphid_licker fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Jul 17, 2022 |
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Jul 17, 2022 00:52
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aphid_licker posted:Russia probably expected that the threat of turning off gas would be enough to ensure compliance during and after the envisioned three-day op, and that the reaction would quickly die down afterwards bc whatcha gonna do about it now that it's done. Don't think they expected to have to go through with it. Both sides are in a bit of uncharted water economically atm and probably not going to be too comfortable in half a year Yeah, on paper the plan was pretty solid. Russia storms across the border, the Ukranian government falls Afghanistan-style in a couple days and the local population is happy to once again be under the protection of their Russian betters. The West would wring their hands and express their "deep concern," meanwhile the rest of the world would be fine using the fig leaf of Russia protecting the Russian-speaking minorities of the East to keep up business as usual. Western Europe would quickly quiet back down because there would be no political will to stop the gas from flowing. Just like when they annexed Crimea. Hell, if you had told me that sequence of events in early February I would 100% have believed that's exactly how it would go down.
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Jul 17, 2022 00:53
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Moon Slayer posted:Yeah, on paper the plan was pretty solid. Russia storms across the border, the Ukranian government falls Afghanistan-style in a couple days and the local population is happy to once again be under the protection of their Russian betters. The West would wring their hands and express their "deep concern," meanwhile the rest of the world would be fine using the fig leaf of Russia protecting the Russian-speaking minorities of the East to keep up business as usual. Western Europe would quickly quiet back down because there would be no political will to stop the gas from flowing. Just like when they annexed Crimea. I remember there was a WHOLE lot of cynicism in this thread about what the sanctions would look like. Everyone was surprised.
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Jul 17, 2022 00:55
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I certainly expected sanctions to just be some token ones on Putin and a couple oligarchs.
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Jul 17, 2022 01:03
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Rinkles posted:Anyone have a sense of how the German public feels about all this? Probably a whole lot of justified anger and fear, but I hope people aren't thinking that Ukraine is not worth it. Poll on supporting Ukraine that mentions energy prices, split by party preference(?) https://twitter.com/denistrubetskoy/status/1547885466573479936
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Jul 17, 2022 01:06
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DTurtle posted:The main problem is gas for heating and not electricity. Germany - along with other countries in the EU just as or more dependent on Russian gas - is rapidly sourcing gas from other sources. This includes a massive and rapid expansion of LNG terminals in order to receive that gas, as well as expanding the natural gas pipeline infrastructure in order to transport gas more effectively between countries. For example, Portugal and Spain have LNG terminals, but there exist only very small pipelines between Spain and France. Expanding those would enable the use of those LNG terminals to capacity quite quickly (it takes longer to build new terminals than to build short pipelines connecting the Spanisch gas network to the French gas network. It's also used in a number industrial process as well which is incredibly dependent on cheap natural gas, oil and number of derivatives you get from oil. Germany's industry is going to likely come to a near screeching halt. I don't remember the specifics offhand but the manufacturing of things like aluminum, steel, cement, milling metal for whatever gadget, etc. is going to be severely impacted. Technically, alternatives do exist that don't emit carbon due to net zero goals or other harmful chemicals but these however are incredibly expensive and largely prototypes not ready for mainstream production.
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Jul 17, 2022 02:02
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OddObserver posted:Poll on supporting Ukraine that mentions energy prices, split by party preference(?) Weird, why is AfD so low? Isn't that the far right party in Germany
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Jul 17, 2022 02:21
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Flavahbeast posted:Weird, why is AfD so low? Isn't that the far right party in Germany I think it's weirder that you think it's weird that far-right chuds support Russia/are supported by Russia.
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Jul 17, 2022 02:31
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Flavahbeast posted:Weird, why is AfD so low? Isn't that the far right party in Germany International Far Right groups are heavily sponsored by Russia. Putin has been cultivating his image as the white Christian ruler fighting Muslims and gays for years, and Fash worldwide eat that up.
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Jul 17, 2022 02:33
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For some reason the actual fash don't seem to be convinced that it's actually Ukraine whom they should be swearing Nazi fealty to.
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Jul 17, 2022 02:42
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Jul 17, 2022 03:04
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Quixzlizx posted:I think it's weirder that you think it's weird that far-right chuds support Russia/are supported by Russia. edit: I read that wrong but you are 100% right In the US it's driven by Fox News, partially based on 'America First' and partially on the full embrace of strongman-worship  You can just say that Zelenskyy and the MIC is taking taxpayers to the bank while migrant caravans are at our borders and there is no baby formula and gas prices are high for hard-working Americans because we are helping drag out the war and also Ukraine has been bombing itself for 10 years and it's super corrupt anyways That's without Hunter Biden's Biolabs etc etc etc etc Victis fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Jul 17, 2022 |
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Jul 17, 2022 03:53
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As a German working as a renewable energy engineer I always thought shutting off our nuclear capacity was the most short sighted and harmful thing we could do in regards of the energy transformation and for the climate. The fact that now an acute crisis is showcasing how dumb a "shut off nuclear, also cripple the renewable industry so no replacement will be available in time" policy has been, which has been implemented by the former konservatives under Merkel. However, as stated before, the issue is not "just turn on a few nuclear plants", the gas crisis will still remain an issue, it will help slightly but not change anything much. Gas is 90 percent used for things that turning the plants on will have zero impact on. It *might* keep down prices a bit but that depends on how expensive it is to keep them running. Goons and people in general have a vastly overoptimistic opinion on nuclear, it's not the silver bullet people want it to be. On my personal feeling of how Germans are seeing this crisis and Ukraine: there really is an unfortunate number of people who are starting the "but what's in it for us" questions regarding German support as the price increases bite, and a non neglectable number of people are wringing their hands about heavy weapons which is a remnant of pacifism that got beaten into us after WW2, but in general people seem to be very supportive. There is a stark divide in this support between former DDR and west Germany tho, and the "left" is spouting a lot of the same "Nato bad, america bad, Russia has a point" you hear around. A cousin is a local politician for the left party here and we had an argument about Nato and Russia last time we met, she's 22 so it's obviously part of their normal Diskurs. Ultimately due to poor political planning the gas problem has very real and potentially long last impacts on us, including the very real possibility of not being able to afford heating for our housing in the winter, so I understand the government wanting to get as much gas as possible, even from Russia, even if I'd personally be willing to sacrifice more to stop it. The sentiment seems to be that we can't help in the future if we're too embroiled in our own crises. This would also erode support for the future and might sweep the government back into power that caused this mess. There's not good way out.
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Jul 17, 2022 06:57
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