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squirrelzipper posted:Ok I’m not that informed on him, what’s the argument against his opinion for my knowledge? It seems that the idea he espouses that the current situation is the worst of both worlds is worth consideration but I’ll acknowledge I’m not that knowledgeable. Eh, I suppose grappling too much with Robert Reich would delve immediately into 2016 Election-chat, so I'll set aside my own personal dislike for him. His arguments about Manchin echo that of a variety of folks that purifying the party is more important than actually holding power. But I think it's a flawed concept, because American politics are largely viewed through the executive branch - Democrats will still be blamed for anything and everything as long as Biden is in power. So losing the Senate doesn't empower Democrats by putting them into a unified opposition, it weakens them by creating more opportunities for discord and ensuring that Democrats are once again on the defensive - unable to enact any policy. The solution to the Senate isn't to chase off the last Blue Dog, it's to win more seats so that we weren't holding a majority in the most difficult way possible.
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Jul 21, 2022 03:37
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Wow, Reich looks terrible. ...The article is also terrible, it doesn't deal with Manchin's actual voting record, especially on things like, idk, the current marriage equality bill, or on federal judges or appointments.
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Jul 21, 2022 03:41
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Kaal posted:Eh, I suppose grappling too much with Robert Reich would delve immediately into 2016 Election-chat, so I'll set aside my own personal dislike for him. His arguments about Manchin echo that of a variety of folks that purifying the party is more important than actually holding power. But I think it's a flawed concept, because American politics are largely viewed through the executive branch - Democrats will still be blamed for anything and everything as long as Biden is in power. So losing the Senate doesn't empower Democrats by putting them into a unified opposition, it weakens them by creating more opportunities for discord and ensuring that Democrats are once again on the defensive - unable to enact any policy. The solution to the Senate isn't to chase off the last Blue Dog, it's to win more seats so that we weren't holding a majority in the most difficult way possible. Ok but what he’s suggesting and I thought was worth discussing is that the Dems are currently set up to get loving massacred in November because of both what they can’t control - inflation, global economic environment - and what they’re perceived as controlling - the senate, the executive, and the house. It’s all well and good to say the solution is just to ‘vote harder’ but, uh, do you think that’s going to work? Like what good is a ‘blue dog’ that blocks everything you voted for? I dunno, I think making a stand would at least galvanize some people, and more importantly you’d don’t really lose anything (please don’t get into minutiae about appointments etc no one cares) vs. just saying ‘donate more and vote harder!’ I mean what good is ‘holding power’ if you’re incapable of actually wielding it? squirrelzipper fucked around with this message at 03:53 on Jul 21, 2022 |
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Jul 21, 2022 03:44
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Discendo Vox posted:Wow, Reich looks terrible. That wasn’t the point of the article tho and was addressed- the point was the administration has been blocked on all of its big tickets - climate, labour, voting rights - by someone claiming to be a dem. But yes, they got a few circuit judges appointed. That’ll probably carry in November I guess. E; and uh, are you saying Manchins voting record is good?
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Jul 21, 2022 03:46
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squirrelzipper posted:That wasn’t the point of the article tho and was addressed- the point was the administration has been blocked on all of its big tickets - climate, labour, voting rights - by someone claiming to be a dem. But yes, they got a few circuit judges appointed. That’ll probably carry in November I guess. It is not addressed. We've been over Manchin's actual voting record many times; here it is again. Note in particular the "Biden plus-minus" score, which illustrates the difference in estimated outcomes a Manchin who voted in line with his state's political affiliation re: the administration and didn't care about his party affiliation would produce.
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Jul 21, 2022 03:52
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Discendo Vox posted:It is not addressed. We've been over Manchin's actual voting record many times; here it is again. Note in particular the "Biden plus-minus" score, which illustrates the difference in estimated outcomes a Manchin who voted in line with his state's political affiliation re: the administration and didn't care about his party affiliation would produce. Ok that’s a quantity over quality argument. I doubt most people feel the same but glad his 538 Biden number is good! E: to be less glib this doesn’t account for all the votes that couldn’t happen because Manchin said in public he wouldn’t support them. But whatever glad he’s got a 90+% Biden number! squirrelzipper fucked around with this message at 03:58 on Jul 21, 2022 |
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Jul 21, 2022 03:55
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We’ve been over this a million times- the way to reduce Manchin’s influence is to add more democrats to the senate, and the way to do that is… vote (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 21, 2022 03:56
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squirrelzipper posted:Ok that’s a quantity over quality argument. I doubt most people feel the same but glad his 538 Biden number is good! Judicial appointments, to say nothing of all other federal appointments, are actually important.
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Jul 21, 2022 03:57
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haveblue posted:We’ve been over this a million times- the way to reduce Manchin’s influence is to add more democrats to the senate, and the way to do that is… vote OK I’m hoping you’re right. I suspect that the R’s will take at least the house, and god-forbid the senate due to the perception that Biden and the Dem’s haven’t delivered anything they said they would - Climate, Voting Rights, Labor Inequality - and people are just going to stay home. And if that’s the case I bet Mitch and team will be pretty effective even with a +0/+1 majority. But yes, vote harder. E; I mean they won’t even remove him from committees lol.
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Jul 21, 2022 04:07
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To put it another way, even if you discount the value of Manchin entirely the alternative is still going to be picking up Senate votes from other states. If your starting assumption is that you need another vote to get things done, then you'll still need to win that same vote, plus another one, if Manchin loses. That means not only winning Pennsylvania and keeping Georgia in 2022, but winning a difficult contest in Wisconsin. I'm not at all convinced that jettisoning Manchin is going to help win those contests.
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Jul 21, 2022 04:09
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Kaal posted:To put it another way, even if you discount the value of Manchin entirely the alternative is still going to be picking up Senate votes from other states. If your starting assumption is that you need another vote to get things done, then you'll still need to win that same vote, plus another one, if Manchin loses. That means not only winning Pennsylvania and keeping Georgia in 2022, but winning a difficult contest in Wisconsin. I'm not at all convinced that jettisoning Manchin is going to help win those contests. Yes but holding power is pointless if you can’t wield it. I know appointments are important et al. But in this environment the administration looks loving hopeless and hasn’t used any pressure on the so called democrats in their way. Like the dude is still chair of a major committee. And now the message is ‘yeah we didn’t get any of that poo poo done, you just have to donate more and vote harder, and oh no, Manchin won’t be taken to task at all’ Good luck with that.
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Jul 21, 2022 04:12
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If the democrats booted Manchin, Thomas and Alito would both end up dying the next day and Manchin would refuse to support whoever Biden nominated out of spite (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 21, 2022 04:30
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squirrelzipper posted:Yes but holding power is pointless if you can’t wield it. Holding power also prevents someone else from holding it, and then in turn from wielding it, and right now there's a bunch of theocratic fascists who would very much like to do so and then prevent anyone else from ever doing so again.
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Jul 21, 2022 04:33
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Vanguard Warden posted:Holding power also prevents someone else from holding it, and then in turn from wielding it, and right now there's a bunch of theocratic fascists who would very much like to do so and then prevent anyone else from ever doing so again. Yes but my fear is the perception of inaction by an exhausted and demotivated electorate is going to result in that anyway, because let’s be honest what Joe Q Democrat sees is Biden has done none of things he said he would, and people like Manchin who blocked him have suffered zero consequences for doing so. He hasn’t even lost committee representation. Holding power is pointless if the way you do it ensures you won’t get it again and you do nothing while you have it. The message in 2020 was ‘get us those Georgia senate seats and we’ll change the world!’ And people worked their asses off to do so. And now it’s ‘ah well, nevertheless…’ squirrelzipper fucked around with this message at 04:58 on Jul 21, 2022 |
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Jul 21, 2022 04:37
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Riptor posted:If the democrats booted Manchin, Thomas and Alito would both end up dying the next day and Manchin would refuse to support whoever Biden nominated out of spite If that outcome could be had from just booting manchin, I still think that'd be a net positive, tbf. I think there's a decent section of the progressive population who's clued in to politics that would be galvanized by the democrats chucking him out on his rear end, but I doubt that the number is large enough to make a material difference in getting the vote out, sadly. Most people in the country don't know who manchin is, while I think Reich has a point that the democrats will suffer some extra from being perceived to be in control while failing to do anything, I don't think there's much of a boon to the average voter from this.... as much as I personally would love it.
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Jul 21, 2022 04:40
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haveblue posted:We’ve been over this a million times- the way to reduce Manchin’s influence is to add more democrats to the senate, and the way to do that is… vote I mean you might have said that a million times, but unless you're immediately checking out after posting and not reading the response I can't imagine why you would think it's a settled issue? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 21, 2022 05:01
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squirrelzipper posted:OK I’m hoping you’re right. I suspect that the R’s will take at least the house, and god-forbid the senate due to the perception that Biden and the Dem’s haven’t delivered anything they said they would - Climate, Voting Rights, Labor Inequality - and people are just going to stay home. And if that’s the case I bet Mitch and team will be pretty effective even with a +0/+1 majority. But yes, vote harder. If the Republicans take the senate, Mitch nukes the filibuster day one and just goes ham with his dirtiest Handmaid's Tale fantasies because the US Senate will never fall back into the hands of the Democrats again this century or before climate change ends global civilization, whatever comes faster. Count on it. Hopefully Herschel Walker and a couple other members of the clown car crop they've got running this year grease the ring enough that it slips out of his hand, but he's already got three fingers and a thumb on it as it is. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 21, 2022 05:13
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nine-gear crow posted:If the Republicans take the senate, Mitch nukes the filibuster day one and just goes ham with his dirtiest Handmaid's Tale fantasies because the US Senate will never fall back into the hands of the Democrats again this century or before climate change ends global civilization, whatever comes faster. Count on it. It is impressive how R’s have only had the executive for 4 of the last 14 years and congress for about 50% of the time and yet seem to get stuff done. Evil stuff, sure. I’m sure when Mitch and Co. eliminate the filibuster Manchin will be somewhat concerned - he might even vote against it, he’s got his 538 record to think about after all.
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Jul 21, 2022 05:24
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Edit: nevermind. Pedantic point
DeadlyMuffin fucked around with this message at 05:38 on Jul 21, 2022 |
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Jul 21, 2022 05:35
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squirrelzipper posted:It is impressive how R’s have only had the executive for 4 of the last 14 years and congress for about 50% of the time and yet seem to get stuff done. Evil stuff, sure. I’m sure when Mitch and Co. eliminate the filibuster Manchin will be somewhat concerned - he might even vote against it, he’s got his 538 record to think about after all. What are the things that they have accomplished that you're referring to? Nearly everything they 'do' is negative, as in it's undoing stuff, rather than actually doing anything.
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Jul 21, 2022 05:41
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squirrelzipper posted:It is impressive how R’s have only had the executive for 4 of the last 14 years and congress for about 50% of the time and yet seem to get stuff done. Evil stuff, sure. I’m sure when Mitch and Co. eliminate the filibuster Manchin will be somewhat concerned - he might even vote against it, he’s got his 538 record to think about after all. We've been over this too. The Republicans got very little done when they had government control because their party is also prone to infighting. One of the things that they did accomplish was get Supreme Court seats. That's what led to the current problem. Removing Manchin from the party has the effect of giving the Republicans more Supreme Court seats.
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Jul 21, 2022 05:42
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Vanguard Warden posted:Holding power also prevents someone else from holding it, and then in turn from wielding it, and right now there's a bunch of theocratic fascists who would very much like to do so and then prevent anyone else from ever doing so again. It doesn't seem to prevent anything when the supposed stopgap is just casually waving them through and taking steps to protect the oppressors.
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Jul 21, 2022 05:51
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Yinlock posted:It doesn't seem to prevent anything when the supposed stopgap is just casually waving them through and taking steps to protect the oppressors. Dems have been remarkably effective at stonewalling the republicans legislative efforts. How many major pieces of republican legislation from the last 10 years can you even name? tbh it's one of the main things the dems have generally done a good job at
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Jul 21, 2022 05:53
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The 1/6 Committee asked for the Secret Service text messages from the 6th (when they had to restrain Trump from going to the Capitol). The NSA can get them. They are on phone company servers as well.
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Jul 21, 2022 05:53
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Discendo Vox posted:We've been over this too. The Republicans got very little done when they had government control because their party is also prone to infighting. One of the things that they did accomplish was get Supreme Court seats. That's what led to the current problem. Removing Manchin from the party has the effect of giving the Republicans more Supreme Court seats. Ok so to reply to both Herstory and this - ‘doing things’ means achieving what their base wants. I know they didn’t repeal ACA for instance, and were a clown show trying to. I get that. I guess I think this thread is too close to the details to see what voters in general see. Rs only undo stuff? Ok. What have Dems done? Seriously. ACA? Ok. What else? Climate? Labor/wage equity/Student Loans/Voting Rights… Like I said, maybe I’m uninformed - but I can’t I can’t see why anyone should believe Biden and the current leadership about what they’ll do, because they’ve done none of what they said last time. Sorry. E; editor weirdness on mobile. To add, I know that there’s reason for that. BUT they’ve done nothing to show that they will try and pressure those reasons - Ie. Manchin which is where this started. HE STILL IS CHAIR OF A COMMITTEE. Why? squirrelzipper fucked around with this message at 06:00 on Jul 21, 2022 |
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Jul 21, 2022 05:54
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VideoGameVet posted:The NSA can get them. They are on phone company servers as well. Does zero good if they're encrypted.
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Jul 21, 2022 05:56
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squirrelzipper posted:Ok so to reply to both Herstory and this - ‘doing things’ means achieving what their base wants. I know they didn’t repeal ACA for instance, and were a clown show trying to. I get that. I guess I think this thread is too close to the details to see what voters in general see. You do not have to obligate everyone else to share in your lack of information. As others have explained many times before in this thread, the Biden administration and the Dems have not in fact done nothing. As has been explained to you, concretely, with specifics, just now, the alternative you've demanded results in worse things.
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Jul 21, 2022 05:58
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Discendo Vox posted:You do not have to obligate everyone else to share in your lack of information. As others have explained many times before in this thread, the Biden administration and the Dems have not in fact done nothing. As has been explained to you, concretely, with specifics, just now, the alternative you've demanded results in worse things. No. That’s not true. This started with me asking why Dem’s refuse to hold Manchin to account. Whether that’s expulsion or removal from Committee. Which he still holds. The rest is you obfuscating because you don’t have a good answer imo. E; and my concern is valid, because ‘your’ team is going to get loving smashed in November because of the perception they’ve done nothing. Here look - who’s the chairman of the loving Senate Energy & Natural Resources committee TODAY: https://www.energy.senate.gov/chair Huh. Way to show him I guess. squirrelzipper fucked around with this message at 06:12 on Jul 21, 2022 |
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Jul 21, 2022 06:01
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Does zero good if they're encrypted. If they are normal SMS they are not encrypted.
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Jul 21, 2022 06:02
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Dems have been remarkably effective at stonewalling the republicans legislative efforts. How many major pieces of republican legislation from the last 10 years can you even name? They really haven't. Dems have, on occasion, put forth some genuinely good bills. Then those bills go through a fun process where they're butchered by blue dogs like Manchin and Republicans and carefully examined by donors to make sure they won't accidentally do something good. The final product is either some means-tested bullshit that helps nobody, a huge giveaway to the rich, or both. We just saw that happen with BBB. When your supposed ideological enemies are allowed to pick through your bills and throw out any parts they don't like that is generally not considered "stonewalling". Whether they put forth those good bills fully expecting them to get butchered is another debate entirely, of course.
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Jul 21, 2022 06:07
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VideoGameVet posted:If they are normal SMS they are not encrypted. 99.9% sure that people doing presidential protection are not using unencrypted sms on duty. They've got specifically encrypted devices that are used. Yinlock posted:They really haven't. Dems have, on occasion, put forth some genuinely good bills. Then those bills go through a fun process where they're butchered by blue dogs like Manchin and Republicans and carefully examined by donors to make sure they won't accidentally do something good. The final product is either some means-tested bullshit that helps nobody, a huge giveaway to the rich, or both. We just saw that happen with BBB. When your supposed ideological enemies are allowed to pick through your bills and throw out any parts they don't like that is generally not considered "stonewalling". What are you replying to, that post is about dems opposing republican legislation
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Jul 21, 2022 06:08
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squirrelzipper posted:No. That’s not true. This started with me asking why Dem’s refuse to hold Manchin to account. Whether that’s expulsion or removal from Committee. Which he still holds. The rest is you obfuscating because you don’t have a good answer imo. No, not "imo", and not "my team". We've explained the consequences of Manchin not voting with the Democrats. I provided numbers, I discussed outcomes. Just because you ignore what we're saying doesn't make it obfuscation.
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Jul 21, 2022 06:08
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Discendo Vox posted:No, not "imo", and not "my team". We've explained the consequences of Manchin not voting with the Democrats. I provided numbers, I discussed outcomes. Just because you ignore what we're saying doesn't make it obfuscation. You've speculated the consequences, your opinions are not absolute fact no matter how much you insist they are.
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Jul 21, 2022 06:12
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Discendo Vox posted:No, not "imo", and not "my team". We've explained the consequences of Manchin not voting with the Democrats. I provided numbers, I discussed outcomes. Just because you ignore what we're saying doesn't make it obfuscation. He’s the loving Chairman of the Energy & Natural Resources Committee. Today. And your ‘outcomes’ are your opinion not loving fact. ^^ efb
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Jul 21, 2022 06:13
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If dem voters require biden to do stuff to re-elect him, how is it good electoral strategy for them to give up their majority control of congress so that they can accomplish even less? Biden accomplishing less of what he promised is going to be a better strategy for the dems?
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Jul 21, 2022 06:21
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Herstory Begins Now posted:If dem voters require biden to do stuff to re-elect him, how is it good electoral strategy for them to give up their majority control of congress so that they can accomplish even less? Biden accomplishing less of what he promised is going to be a better strategy for the dems? This is both disingenuous and unrealistic. First - my question, and the article I posted, is why has Manchin suffered no censure for blocking almost all the major initiatives over the last 24 months. Why is he still a chairman? No-one has answered that really other than ‘oh well we need him’. Ok. Second - you’re ascribing a level of political intellect and attention to voters that demonstrably doesn’t exist. So the ones who can be swayed by Manchin being disciplined won’t be, because it hasn’t happened, and the ones who just pay attention to the promises missed have no vision for why they should vote again. Did you see todays climate announcement? The party is failing both the engaged and the apathetic voter, and mark my words, I hope I’m wrong, but they’re going to get loving demolished in the mid-terms. Then they can hold focus groups I guess, and will run Biden again, because you know, he’s electable or some poo poo. Like why has Manchin not been removed as Chairman? Why? That seems like a reasonable reaction to his obstruction. squirrelzipper fucked around with this message at 06:34 on Jul 21, 2022 |
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Jul 21, 2022 06:30
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squirrelzipper posted:This is both disingenuous and unrealistic. You don't seem to actually be engaging with responses to your posts. What do you think removing Manchin from his chairmanship etc would accomplish? We've been over this territory many times before in this thread. "Blackmail Joe Manchin and prosecute his daughter" etc is perennial. Please make sure you're contributing something new or interesting and are actually addressing arguments and information presented.
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Jul 21, 2022 06:35
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I agree it is unrealistic, that's why I'm asking you to walk me through the logic of how that makes sense. Additionally your second point refutes your general premise: dems should do something that only politically attentive minutia-minded people will care about (tossing manchin out or stripping him of assignments). But also you suggest dem voters are inattentive and lack political intellect, qualities which would be required for removing manchin to have any impact on voter's perceptions. I think you're ranting about dems more than you're making arguments. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 06:44 on Jul 21, 2022 |
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Jul 21, 2022 06:38
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Fritz the Horse posted:You don't seem to actually be engaging with responses to your posts. What do you think removing Manchin from his chairmanship etc would accomplish? Ok how do you motivate voters who believed you when someone blocks what you’re doing? Let me ask you - how do you think the mid-terms are going to go? Do you believe that sometimes politics is about what you say publicly, that can perhaps communicate a vision? How about Shumer et al have a press conference where they announce: ‘After consideration, we’ve decided Mr. Manchin’s efforts would be better focussed somewhere else, and are replacing him as Chairman with XXXXXX. Unfortunatley due to his position on our Climate policy we don't believe he's the right choice for this role. Going forward, we will be assessing our team members ability to act as required to advance the agenda that our Democratic voters have overwhelmingly supported.' It's called signalling. Does it do a lot? Maybe no. Does it do more than the bullshit being done now? Yes, unequivocally. Probe me if you must, but the echo chamber here is crazy and the November numbers are loving horrific. E; and lol that someone reported me for this discussion. Just lmao. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 21, 2022 06:41
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I agree it is unrealistic, that's why I'm asking you to walk me through the logic of how that makes sense. Ok - answer me this. Why is Manchin Chariman of the Energy senate committee given his position and sinking of the Climate bill? E; and that’s a bad faith reading of my post - I clearly said they’re losing BOTH engaged and apathetic voters, but w/e squirrelzipper fucked around with this message at 06:48 on Jul 21, 2022 |
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Jul 21, 2022 06:43
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