China Megathread - Their navy can be taken seriously or taken littorally

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > China Megathread - Their navy can be taken seriously or taken littorally

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Red and Black: Sep 5, 2011

Rabelais D posted:

I'm just going by the available figures which suggest a million tobacco related deaths a year which just happens to be the projected number of deaths for letting covid rip, and fine, that might be lower now that smoking bans are being more enforced. My overall point was that if China is worthy of praise because it is willing to sacrifice the economy and personal freedoms for positive health outcomes as opposed to the west, or anywhere else (and it is generally worthy of praise I would say) then it nevertheless seems that such a philosophy is very selectively implemented, because China does have a very big lung cancer problem.

COVID lockdowns demonstrably produce positive results and prevent deaths and its not at all clear a ban on tobacco would have a similar positive outcome. You are comparing apples and oranges.

# ? Jul 21, 2022 12:15

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 21:51

Alchenar: Apr 9, 2008

For obvious reasons tobacco related deaths continue steady for quite some time after smoking itself declines. Also smoking just isn't a problem that requires draconian solutions, you just ban advertising and raise duty/taxes and wait (obviously you might for good reasons want to do more).

# ? Jul 21, 2022 13:12

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

Directly banning addictive vices seems to not have a particularly good track record of stopping addictive vices, in fact a lot of the time it seems to just empower smugglers, bootleggers, cartels, etc. Seems much smarter to make them as inconvenient as possible.

On the flipside, I dont think there's going to be a speakeasy for coughing on each other maskless

# ? Jul 21, 2022 13:20

fart simpson: Jul 2, 2005; DEATH TO AMERICA

Mirello posted:

I just want to point out this isnt true at all. I've lived in china since 2016, and in 2016 it was extremely common for people to light up inside, or on trains or buses next to signs saying no smoking. The govt has really cracked down and it's become extremely rare. now this isn't like banning smoking or whatever, but it's a fact that they've cracked down quite hard, and among young people it's much less common than among older people.

yes, in fact here in shenzhen you can call the phone number 123456 to report any restaurant or business that is allowing smoking indoors and from what ive heard they actually get fined. it�s now extremely rare to see anyone smoking inside around here. as a result of the above, ive seen waiters and service staff kick people out over it if they refuse to stop smoking

# ? Jul 21, 2022 14:20

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

in more Chinese real estate news:

https://twitter.com/ananthkrishnan/status/1549951245682622464
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1549625886843994115
https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1548878729849765889

one upside is that Chinese domestic inflation is currently rather repressed (due to zero covid sticking a pin in demand, for one thing) so there is definitely room for manoeuvrer

# ? Jul 21, 2022 16:39

Daduzi: Nov 22, 2005; You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun.

Neurolimal posted:

Directly banning addictive vices seems to not have a particularly good track record of stopping addictive vices, in fact a lot of the time it seems to just empower smugglers, bootleggers, cartels, etc. Seems much smarter to make them as inconvenient as possible.

That's fine and all but then that again seems another example of selective enforcement because there's an awful lot of addictive vices the CCP does choose to ban.

# ? Jul 22, 2022 01:54

MikeC: Jul 19, 2004; BITCH ASS NARC

The Carnagie Endowment has released a new publication a few days ago detailing the history of Chinese nuclear weapons policy and its transition now that Xi is asserting China's position as a new global superpower. It is a good read for anyone who wants to understand how China has viewed nuclear weapons, their purpose, and doctrine of use both in the past, the present, and the future.

Some tie in to the news back in November about China expanding its arsenal https://forums.somethingawful.com/s...a#post518980017

It is a rather long and dry academic read but it is very thorough. Some choice passages. The majority of these passages come from the first half of the article which discusses the historical and evolving nature of Chinese nuclear weapon policies (the interesting parts). The 2nd half of the article mainly takes stock of the nitty gritty of the execution of such a strategy like delivery system etc. Good if you are into the hardware end of it.

edit: I should probably link the article: https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/18/china-pub-87396

quote:

Authoritative Chinese articulations of its nuclear doctrine, much less its nuclear strategy, have been few and the key themes articulated immediately after its first test in 1964 were echoed endlessly since the Cold War era. These themes include: the conviction that nuclear weapons exist principally �for defense and for protecting the Chinese people� against the dangers of nuclear attacks and threats by others, meaning, primarily as a deterrent rather than as usable instruments of war; the assurance that China still sought complete nuclear disarmament; and, most importantly from the perspective of strategy, the commitment �that China will never at any time and under any circumstances be the first to use nuclear weapons.� This �no-first-use� pledge has been the most conspicuous element of China�s declaratory doctrine and was supplemented for the first time in 1995 by the undertaking�reiterated frequently since��not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones at any time or under any circumstances.�

.....

The possibility of delayed retaliation, however, did not seem to faze Chinese leaders because they concluded that given the catastrophic consequences of any nuclear reprisal, even the prospect of ragged or sluggish retaliation, would have had enough deterrent effect. As Deng Xiaoping described in a meeting with the Canadian prime minister in 1983:

We have a few nuclear weapons. France also has a few. These weapons themselves are useful only for [creating] pressure. We have said many times that is the point of our few nuclear weapons! Only to show that we also have what they have. If they want to destroy us, they themselves will also suffer some retaliation. We have consistently said that we want to force the superpowers not to dare to use nuclear weapons. In the past, this was to deal with the Soviet Union, to force them not to use these weapons rashly. To have even only a few weapons after all is a kind of restraining force.75

Two Western analysts confirmed Deng�s judgment a year after his remarks by quoting one Chinese strategist who summarized this aspect of Beijing�s operational policy as �based on �launch at any uncertain time�.� Declaring that China�s adversaries �cannot preempt all of China�s nuclear missiles, which are carefully stored in caves or otherwise protected and camouflaged,� any country that launched a first strike on China �would have to continue to worry about Chinese retaliation �perhaps hours, days, weeks, months or even years later�.�

.....

Throughout the 1990s and in the following decade, there were extensive discussions in the Chinese strategic community about the wisdom of retaining the no-first-use pledge in circumstances where China was now the direct target of an unconstrained superpower rival. Consequently, there appeared sporadic insinuations that the no-first-use pledge was not as unconditional as it originally appeared, thus opening the door, for example, to speculation that China could threaten the first use of nuclear weapons either on its own territory or in disputed areas that China claims as its own......These deliberations did not arise from any new policies articulated by the Chinese leadership but rather from the newly empowered Chinese strategic community that, benefiting from the broader liberalization in the country, began to discuss previously closed matters more openly.84 The availability of classified Chinese military writings in the West complicated things further, even though these texts reflect the concerns of a professional military whose job is to prepare for unpalatable contingencies. All told, none of the discussions conclusively repudiated the no-first-use commitment, yet their conjectures acquired resonance because China�s no-first-use pledge is inherently unverifiable.

.....

Whenever Chinese leaders at the highest levels spoke to the issue of no first use, however, they repudiated all the revisionist speculations occurring in the Chinese strategic community. They emphasized over and over again that the no-first-use pledge was robust, a commitment that was reiterated repeatedly in China�s defense white papers issued by the State Council Information Office, including in its most recent 2019 iteration.....While such dangers constitute plausible provocations that might stimulate Chinese nuclear first use in principle, two mitigating factors must be considered. First, both civilian and military leaders in Beijing recognize the gravity of these challenges, especially as China and the United States evolve into the principal geopolitical antagonists in the international system. But�at least at the Chinese civilian leadership level, the apex decisionmaking authority within the state�nothing has changed on the fundamentals: the chasm between conventional and nuclear warfare is still viewed as absolute and the imperative of preventing China from becoming a victim of either nuclear attack or nuclear coercion remains enduring�for which a no-first-use policy arguably suffices.

.....

Like the no-first-use pledge, the Chinese emphasis on fielding a modest deterrent also seems to guide the nuclear modernization efforts that have gathered steam after the Cold War, but Beijing�s conception of what constitutes a �modest� capability is poised to change rather dramatically. Until the end of the Cold War, China�s nuclear force comported quite consciously with Mao and Zhou Enlai�s injunction that it should be composed of �a few but excellent� weapons. .... As China steadily moved toward considering the United States its principal strategic threat, the previous �theory of a few� gave way to what official publications since the 2006 defense white paper have described as China�s current objective: seeking a �lean and effective� nuclear force .... Chinese scholars, somewhat counterintuitively, insist on treating the concept of a �lean and effective� force as essentially synonymous with the older notion of possessing �a few but excellent� weapons.

All the same, China�s decisionmakers appear to be pursuing a considerably expanded nuclear force�at least in comparison to their Cold War inventory�which involves reaching specific quantitative targets as well as realizing a particular force structure. Both these ambitions are unlikely to remain fixed in perpetuity and will change depending on China�s strategic environment, but the larger transition from an existential to a more qualified minimum deterrent�where Beijing seeks to protect a significant number of surviving warheads relative to both its adversaries� expected counterforce strikes and their countervalue targets sought to be held at risk�is already underway.

....

What is clear, however, from both the diversity and the scale of China�s current nuclear modernization is that its leadership is no longer content to rely on the token nuclear force of yesteryear�which was an existential deterrent�but rather seeks to preserve, through larger forces than before, the capacity for executing a guaranteed �nuclear counterattack,�117 or what Western scholars have now persuasively characterized as �assured retaliation.�

....

The focus on nuclear retaliation as an instrument for deterring further nuclear attacks and bringing the conflict to a close as expeditiously as possible is noteworthy precisely because, for all of Beijing�s nuclear transformations, China still does not conceive of nuclear weapons as instruments of warfighting�as the United States and Russia arguably still do. And the characteristics of China�s evolving delivery systems only reinforce the point. Even the Chinese land-based strategic missiles that are slated to become the mainstay of its deterrent (not to mention the sea-based systems) are best suited for attacks on countervalue and soft military targets because their relative inaccuracy, despite their substantial yields, makes them unsuitable for counterforce strikes against hard point targets. China could obviously deploy more accurate nuclear missiles if it chose to, but its primary emphasis on punishing an adversary�s nuclear aggression clearly makes targeting soft, high-value population, economic, and military centers more appropriate.

.....

The diminishing yields of China�s strategic warheads, from the previous high of 3�5 megatons to the emerging norm of 300�500 kilotons on its new but relatively inaccurate strategic missiles, suggest that countervalue and countermilitary interdiction of large area targets still remain a priority and, as such, are most consistent with a retaliatory nuclear strategy. If China, however, deploys lower-yield warheads in the range of a few tens of kilotons or just a few kilotons (or in the sub-kiloton range), then the possibility of a shift toward more complex nuclear strategies would have to be taken very seriously.

# ? Jul 22, 2022 04:41

Mirello: Jan 29, 2006; by Fluffdaddy

ronya posted:

Yes, it says 山东日照 on the video, to be clear

The news I'm seeing suggests a protest at a BOC branch in Rizhao - some number of the affected depositors are not in Henan but from neighbouring Shandong, so that lines up - and protesting at BOC (the biggest "big four" state-linked commercial bank 中国银行) retail branches for something the PBC (the central bank, 中国人民银行) did is something of a recurring confusion now

(the PBC oversees the CBIRC, which is the deposit guarantor)

still, tanks are not really a crowd control tool of choice so it was probably just an intimidation tactic to prevent a small picket from turning into a large one like in Zhengzhou

I was going to call bullshit myself on this earlier, but luckily this article came out and showed this is all bullshit much better than I could: https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-597006254172

seriously, 3/4 of the stuff that's discussed in this thread isn't real. tanks rolling down the streets because of mortgage protests, except that didn't happen. china doesn't fight against smoking at all, except that didn't happen. Peng Shuai disappeared, except that didn't happen. It's amazing how much of what's posted in this thread is unverified propaganda. I wish the mods would do a better job of not letting unsubstantiated rumors spread around. I also really hope that some people are reading this, and after the 10th time of some "bad news" being posted turns out to be infactual, they learn to actually wait for the facts rather than judge based off some random tweets that the people posting can't even understand.

# ? Jul 22, 2022 10:18

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

If people are posting unverified/unsubstantiated rumors and propaganda, please point that out in thread (as you've done) or submit a report.

Mods don't really have time to fact-check everything and speaking for myself I don't follow Chinese news or internal politics closely, this is just one of the threads I watch closely. Having a dedicated thread IK who follows China closely might help, but I don't know that it's really necessary since this slow moves pretty slowly. Just submit a report or PM someone and we'll have a look in a couple hours tops.

edit: also, the posts about the tanks had caveats that this wasn't really solid reporting, it was couched as unverified stuff making the rounds on social media, e.g:

Daduzi posted:

Rumour I read was a group of veterans moved on the local government building with weapons, demanding pay/benefits, but I have nothing to substantiate that.

Thank you for posting the AP article correcting the record.

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 12:02 on Jul 22, 2022

# ? Jul 22, 2022 11:57

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

In my defense I would generally expect Fang Shimin to be a reasonably credible source - and officially unreported protests are common - and in this case the outrage du jour was not a video clip dredged up from years ago but one where I checked enough credible sources that confirmed it to be recent and real (albeit absent context)

ronya fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Jul 22, 2022

# ? Jul 22, 2022 15:59

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Stringent posted:

bit of a change of pace, but here's a nice twitter thread from someone who actually speaks chinese and doesn't hate china visiting a 4th tier city, talking to some locals and just trying to convey the general vibe of the place. looks pretty nice to me.

https://twitter.com/pretentiouswhat/status/1541753290576531461?s=20&t=WgdmGL8o79-7wdEur1WUkw

another new interesting thread on small-town China, by the same tweeter

https://twitter.com/pretentiouswhat/status/1550292538736918528
https://twitter.com/pretentiouswhat/status/1550294679786504192

(oddly apropos to my earlier remark last week that I suspect the 三农 is doomed)

the thread doesn't really change my mind - most of the Chinese countryside is not conveniently bedroom-community distance from tier 2 cities:

https://twitter.com/ChunXuCFA/status/1550435926815477760

but it's an interesting counterpoint

# ? Jul 22, 2022 19:25

je1 healthcare: Sep 29, 2015

Mirello posted:

seriously, 3/4 of the stuff that's discussed in this thread isn't real. tanks rolling down the streets because of mortgage protests, except that didn't happen. china doesn't fight against smoking at all, except that didn't happen. Peng Shuai disappeared, except that didn't happen. It's amazing how much of what's posted in this thread is unverified propaganda.

The last time you posted about Peng Shuai you argued that the government was justified in censoring her because sexual assault allegations should never be made online. It was also carefully explained to you that she "disappeared" because for several days she was held incommunicado and her family and coworkers couldn't get in touch or verify her whereabouts. And you still ate 3 probations for it

# ? Jul 23, 2022 04:45

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

More on rural evolution: https://www.readingthechinadream.com/huang-zhihui-on-absentee-farmers.html

quote:

Huang Zhihui (b. 1984) is a professor at the School of Ethnology and Sociology at the Minzu University of China who specializes in rural issues and rural-urban relations. He has written what look to be very interesting books on �substitute farmers 代耕农,� which refers to new forms of �tenancy� that have emerged as China�s farmers have migrated to the cities (Faceless Domination/无相支配, 2013; Substitute Farmers/代耕农, 2019), as well as a book on Fei Xiaotong�s thoughts on China�s political economy (Revisiting the Herald/重温先声, 2018).

quote:

Most of Huang�s focus, however, is on the reform and opening period and the absentee farmers produced by China�s urbanization. His findings are rich, and to me, quite surprising. He illustrates that over the past twenty years or so, the earlier pattern of rural migration to the big cities, annual returns to the village to celebrate the new year, and eventual return to live in the village has given away to a new pattern in which farmers leave their villages and purchase homes in their township or county town. To pay their urban mortgages, many of these farmers continue to work in the big cities, but their ties to the village are attenuated by their urban residence (or residences�many �farmer families� own more than one urban dwelling), even if this residence is often not physically distant from the village. In other words, the factory wages of migrant workers are invested in the much greater convenience of urban life; even a rural township offers better schools, health care, and public services than most of China�s villages.

quote:

The residential pattern of Chinese farmers in the new era can be described in terms of four patterns. The first pattern is those who remain resident in the village. Although those left behind in the villages in recent years have been increasingly characterized in terms of empty nests containing the elderly, women, and children, they remain nonetheless important agents of rural revitalization in practice. The second pattern is those who move to the township and generally build houses there. These farmers are somewhere between town and village, having left the village but not the area, and having left the soil without necessary abandoning their farmer status. They are both part of the new urban residence pattern and closely implicated in rural reconstruction.

The third pattern describes those who have purchased houses in the county town. More and more people are doing this, which is leaving the villages with a serious lack of agency. The fourth pattern describes farmers with multiple permanent dwellings, including in villages, townships, and cities. The distribution and movement of such "multi-residence" farmers are related to the specific nature of the flow of people and material goods between urban and rural areas, and their spatial residence status, and whether they are �resident� or not depends on construction activities in the towns and in rural areas.

Very similar to that observed by Fishman in Ezhou

Huang's policy recommendations are ... maybe not plausible, but it's a succinct description of where things are going, at least

# ? Jul 23, 2022 05:42

Red and Black: Sep 5, 2011

je1 healthcare posted:

The last time you posted about Peng Shuai you argued that the government was justified in censoring her because sexual assault allegations should never be made online. It was also carefully explained to you that she "disappeared" because for several days she was held incommunicado and her family and coworkers couldn't get in touch or verify her whereabouts. And you still ate 3 probations for it

According to Peng Shuai herself in an interview she was never in police custody and I see no reason not to believe her account of things

https://youtu.be/ypR3GS1sB74

I remember because she gave this interview right during the hysteria of her �disappearance� and suddenly here she is in Shanghai (not her home city), walking around freely and saying she was never in custody.

# ? Jul 23, 2022 15:09

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

I'm not sure what the point of dredging up people's posts about Peng Shuai or relitigating the incident is other than to score internet argument points over a hot-button issue. If there's new information that would add something to the discussion that wasn' t previously covered, go for it. If we're just rehashing an argument that's been done several times itt, let's not.

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Jul 23, 2022

# ? Jul 23, 2022 16:19

Darkest Auer: Dec 30, 2006; They're silly; Ramrod XTreme

Well I'm convinced by this one not-at-all-fake video uploaded by a government that bans their citizens from accessing said video! :decorum:

# ? Jul 23, 2022 17:43

Red and Black: Sep 5, 2011

Darkest Auer posted:

Well I'm convinced by this one not-at-all-fake video uploaded by a government that bans their citizens from accessing said video!

Lianhe Zaobao is a privately owned Singaporean newspaper. This would have been extremely obvious if you had done even half a second of research.

# ? Jul 23, 2022 18:55

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Some commentary from back then here: https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/china-using-singapore-media-peng-shuai

As a more general point, before the interview erupted: https://www.wethecitizens.net/a-look-at-singapores-mandarin-media-coverage-of-china/

ronya fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Jul 23, 2022

# ? Jul 23, 2022 19:10

Red and Black: Sep 5, 2011

quote:

�The Chinese government is definitely behind Lianhe Zaobao to increase the credibility of the story. If the story was by state media, it would carry far less weight,� a China watcher told Asia Sentinel. �Peng Shuai was under pressure to say what she said. We�ve seen this too often with the self-incrimination on TV. All these are popular tactics of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party).�

This is a funny and representative quote from that article. because like so many accusations being thrown in regards to Peng Shuai it�s anonymous and backed by nothing but rumor and innuendo.

If you want to say a newspaper has a Chinese nationalist bent, fine. But to say it�s a subsidiary of the Chinese government, and that it fabricated an interview without being able to cite any evidence whatsoever� is not a serious argument but sadly not out of place in this thread

# ? Jul 23, 2022 19:36

je1 healthcare: Sep 29, 2015

Red and Black posted:

According to Peng Shuai herself in an interview she was never in police custody and I see no reason not to believe her account of things

https://youtu.be/ypR3GS1sB74

I remember because she gave this interview right during the hysteria of her �disappearance� and suddenly here she is in Shanghai (not her home city), walking around freely and saying she was never in custody.

Your memory is pretty shoddy then, this video was taken on December 19th, a month after she re-appeared. Peng made the post on November 2nd, it was scrubbed from the internet the next day, and nobody saw or heard from her again until November 17th when Chinese state media to posted an english-language message that Peng sent to them to disseminate instead of posting it on her own social media accounts for some reason. From November 20th onward she kept appearing and communicating exclusively through the state media, including social media-style posts of her chilling at home....also posted exclusively by state media representatives

# ? Jul 23, 2022 19:44

Red and Black: Sep 5, 2011

je1 healthcare posted:

Your memory is pretty shoddy then, this video was taken on December 19th, a month after she re-appeared. Peng made the post on November 2nd, it was scrubbed from the internet the next day, and nobody saw or heard from her again until November 17th when Chinese state media to posted an english-language message that Peng sent to them to disseminate instead of posting it on her own social media accounts for some reason. From November 20th onward she kept appearing and communicating exclusively through the state media, including social media-style posts of her chilling at home....also posted exclusively by state media representatives

Nah I specifically remember posters in this thread continuing to post as if Peng Shuai was being black bagged even when the interview broke. Eventually there was back peddling to �well we�re not saying she�s actually in government custody just that she�s being censored on social media�. I could easily drag up old posts if you want me to prove this but I doubt anyone wants to get into that.

Its obvious now in hindsight that she was just avoiding the public eye after her high profile social media post. Its also not surprising given that she lives in China that she was reported on by Chinese state media. Not exactly a smoking gun. And to this day those like you who argue she was arrested have zero tangible evidence to support that view. On the other hand we have her own testimony to support the opposite view and no reason to believe it was �forced�, despite that being the standard western media pablum.

# ? Jul 23, 2022 20:08

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

I feel obliged to highlight that this takes place in a background where we do know that secret RSDL orders exist, and that televised confessions and media statements obtained by threatening family and livelihoods are a contemporary Chinese public security tool of choice, and indeed have made something of a renaissance under Xi

The question is not "does this happen in contemporary China", I think, but instead "would such severe measures be applied to someone connected to the elite who is not - at first, anyway - deliberately trying to engage in political activism"

It's relatively easy for Chinese audiences to dehumanize #metoo activists as loopy idealists, dreamers, or Western stooges, but Peng is a far more sympathetic character, not least because of her domestic prominence in a role as a national sports champion

ronya fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Jul 23, 2022

# ? Jul 23, 2022 20:08

je1 healthcare: Sep 29, 2015

Red and Black posted:

Its obvious now in hindsight that she was just avoiding the public eye after her high profile social media post. Its also not surprising given that she lives in China that she was reported on by Chinese state media. Not exactly a smoking gun. And to this day those like you who argue she was arrested have zero tangible evidence to support that view. On the other hand we have her own testimony to support the opposite view and no reason to believe it was �forced�, despite that being the standard western media pablum.

Again, not clear why you think an interview a month after she re-appeared is evidence that she never vanished in the first place. Genuinely curious, what do you suppose happened in the 24 hours after her post that made her dramatically 180 from wanting to disseminate the story to as many members of the public as possible, to wanting everyone stop talking about it while she goes into complete hiding for two weeks? It wasn't western media attention.

And she wasn't "reported on" by Chinese state media, as if they simply covered whatever she was posting on social media (because she completely stopped). They took the role of acting as her sole point of contact to the outside world. "Avoiding the public eye" as far as celebrities go doesn't leave their family and coworkers wondering if they're in legal custody, or alive. It defies all logic that these were the random actions of someone who wasn't intercepted by government officials, taking place at the exact same time they ordered the topic censored for everyone else, under a policing system that deliberately blurs the lines of arrest and detainment

# ? Jul 23, 2022 22:32

eSports Chaebol: Feb 22, 2005; Yeah, actually, gamers in the house forever,

je1 healthcare posted:

Again, not clear why you think an interview a month after she re-appeared is evidence that she never vanished in the first place. Genuinely curious, what do you suppose happened in the 24 hours after her post that made her dramatically 180 from wanting to disseminate the story to as many members of the public as possible, to wanting everyone stop talking about it while she goes into complete hiding for two weeks? It wasn't western media attention.

And she wasn't "reported on" by Chinese state media, as if they simply covered whatever she was posting on social media (because she completely stopped). They took the role of acting as her sole point of contact to the outside world. "Avoiding the public eye" as far as celebrities go doesn't leave their family and coworkers wondering if they're in legal custody, or alive. It defies all logic that these were the random actions of someone who wasn't intercepted by government officials, taking place at the exact same time they ordered the topic censored for everyone else, under a policing system that deliberately blurs the lines of arrest and detainment

Do you have any sources for her family saying they couldn�t contact her? I�m genuinely curious; I did a quick search but couldn�t find any because seemingly every story at the time shared the same synopsis without any details or follow up

There are also counterexamples such as Jack Ma, who was almost certainly explicitly told to lay low by Party officials, who was nonetheless flying around while he was disappeared and presumed detained.

e: it sucks that China censors things and often (especially if you don�t speak Chinese) all we have to go on are rumors, but just because rumors are (sometimes) a relatively better source of information than nothing, doesn�t make them objectively any more reliable.

eSports Chaebol fucked around with this message at 23:54 on Jul 23, 2022

# ? Jul 23, 2022 23:49

Daduzi: Nov 22, 2005; You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun.

eSports Chaebol posted:

There are also counterexamples such as Jack Ma, who was almost certainly explicitly told to lay low by Party officials, who was nonetheless flying around while he was disappeared and presumed detained.

What point are you trying to make here? That RSDL is not real? Because there's ample evidence that it is.

# ? Jul 24, 2022 07:55

Red and Black: Sep 5, 2011

Daduzi posted:

What point are you trying to make here? That RSDL is not real? Because there's ample evidence that it is.

House arrest exists in many countries. The fact that it happens in China does not prove it was applied to Peng Shuai.

This really should go without saying but X form of detainment can occur in country Y does not imply that baseless speculation about Person Z being under X form of detainment is automatically true. Though this is basically the form most accusations against PRC take in this thread

Red and Black fucked around with this message at 11:51 on Jul 24, 2022

# ? Jul 24, 2022 11:34

Criss-cross: Jun 14, 2022; by Fluffdaddy

Maybe she liked vanishing from public view immediately after and later recanting her allegations of some party big-wig being sexually inappropriate. Clearly, there's no evidence she was coerced. Seems most likely she did all of it voluntarily, no pressure involved. I assume she deleted her own social media posts a well.

People are being really unfair to the PRC, a totalitarian dictatorship, in this thread.

# ? Jul 24, 2022 12:31

Red and Black: Sep 5, 2011

So she posted a story online criticizing what she considered abusive behavior by her former partner. From her perspective this was an interpersonal conflict. Her post exploded in views, and was quickly picked up by people who transformed it from an interpersonal conflict to a political attack on the Chinese government.

Recognizing that this was happening she removed her post and decided to lay low at her home in Beijing. During this time she met with close friends and even appeared at public restaurants, photos and videos of which were leaked by her friends to the Chinese press. This is what is being criticized as �Chinese state agents posting fabricated videos of her� or whatever. Its worth noting that her friends leaking information about her makes perfect sense given there was already an international campaign asking �Where is Peng Shuai?� They were answering the question: she is fine and with friends. Obviously this was never going to satisfy certain people who have a political bone to pick and will believe whatever is convenient to that end.

Eventually she appears in Shanghai and is interviewed by a Singaporean newspaper. She denies that she was sexually assaulted because in her mind she wasn�t accusing her former lover of sexual assault, but of using her for sex and then discarding her like trash. So in fact, she never back tracks on anything. She explains that she was never in police custody and debunks a number of other rumors circulating in the western press. This is all discarded as a �forced interview� despite the again being no evidence of any such thing. Speculation about �Where is Peng Shuai� continues despite everything until its finally washed away by the next frenetic news cycle

This account of events best fits the evidence and is much more plausible than wild eyed stories about Peng Shuai being black bagged, because there is zero tangible evidence to support the latter. Also Peng Shuai isn�t even a political dissident, though the western press has definitely tried to make her one. She has a bone to pick with exactly one retired party member and has not made a general attack on the Chinese government. The PRC therefore has no incentive to treat her as one.

Red and Black fucked around with this message at 14:06 on Jul 24, 2022

# ? Jul 24, 2022 13:27

Criss-cross: Jun 14, 2022; by Fluffdaddy

Yes, perfectly normal for state media to suddenly start posting private e-mails she supposedly sent with an editing cursor visible and videos with someone off-screen directing Peng to start talking.

As you've stated before, she disappeared herself and, of course, censored her own social media posts. Clearly, China didn't react to this becoming an international incident at all.

And she wasn't pressured into sex, she actually wanted more!

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jul 24, 2022 14:07

Harold Fjord: Jan 3, 2004

There's a nefarious plot but they didn't just edit out the part you find to be incredibly obvious proof of said plot because?

# ? Jul 24, 2022 15:26

Red and Black: Sep 5, 2011

It�s funny because nobody ever pretended that the English version of the WTA email wasn�t the result of a translation by CGTN. Peng Shuai said as much herself in the Zaobao interview, she doesn�t speak English well enough to translate it herself. She is aware that CGTN had access to her email, probably because she herself sent it to them. Why? Because she�s trying to manage the crisis of her interpersonal issue being made into a political attack on the Chinese government.

As for claiming the Zaobao interview itself was �directed� by someone� there�s no evidence. The video itself if anyone bothered to watch it is very rough and Peng Shuai seems to be caught off guard by a lone reporter with a phone camera. I�m not sure if anyone here is actually familiar with PRC propaganda, but it is not exactly subtle, and the Zaobao interview has no apparent signs of being staged.

# ? Jul 24, 2022 15:46

eSports Chaebol: Feb 22, 2005; Yeah, actually, gamers in the house forever,

Criss-cross posted:

Maybe she liked vanishing from public view immediately after and later recanting her allegations of some party big-wig being sexually inappropriate. Clearly, there's no evidence she was coerced. Seems most likely she did all of it voluntarily, no pressure involved. I assume she deleted her own social media posts a well.

People are being really unfair to the PRC, a totalitarian dictatorship, in this thread.

She didn�t recant anything and you taking away her agency by lying about what she said to suit your agenda is disgusting and misogynistic. You can hate China without hating women, Jesus Christ

# ? Jul 24, 2022 18:06

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

I asked for the thread to not rehash Peng Shuai to score internet argument points unless there was new information. I allowed it because there was some good discussion and angles I didn't recall reading here before. Now we're back to scoring internet argument points and hurling insults. That's enough on this topic, thanks.

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 20:05 on Jul 24, 2022

# ? Jul 24, 2022 20:02

url: Apr 23, 2007; internet gnuru

Fritz the Horse posted:

I asked for the thread to not rehash Peng Shuai to score internet argument points unless there was new information. I allowed it because there was some good discussion and angles I didn't recall reading here before. Now we're back to scoring internet argument points and hurling insults. That's enough on this topic, thanks.

Thank gently caress for that.

And, in all honesty, Jack Ma's laying low has far more room for wild speculation. When taken in conjunction with the several other tech bro CEOs who deleted their Weibo and similar accounts, it's a much better story.

# ? Jul 25, 2022 05:01

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

From the new HK government, a hint:

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1551581453800144898

This is not a new goal - putonghua medium instruction has been a declared goal since 1999 - but the topic is touchy. For context, English is the prestigious medium of instruction but unlike Singapore has failed to substantially displace the traditional language spoken at home, which remains Cantonese.

Anyway at handover the Tung government committed an ambition to universalize mother-tongue (Cantonese) medium education. This was popular in pundit circles - at that point in time, liberal opinion in HK was that mother-tongue medium of instruction was the correct choice for improving academic performance in general, and of course anti-colonial attitudes also nudged this along. But in the face of furious pushback, it compromised to let furious aspirational parents still access English medium education by gating it behind sufficient student and teacher ability, whilst simultaneously declaring a long-term committent to the eventuial replacement of both Cantonese and English medium education with putonghua (at that point, anticipated to be never).

This Solomonesque commitment to trilingualism kicked the can down the road, more or less, in the optimistic hope that a future HK govt would have more political legitimacy and popularity to presumably abolish English outright. That didn't pan out, to say the least.

Fast forward a quarter century after handover, and it remains the case that the most aspirational students pick English-medium schools (or classes offered in English), tertiary education remains English medium, and of the Chinese medium schools, there is a tendency to switch back to Cantonese after subsidies to teach in putonghua ebbs off. Politically, the camps have shifted also: as the pro-Cantonese camps have found themselves under existential siege from putonghua since the mid-2010s, their old spats with English dating back to the 1980s seem to have been forgotten (if the argument from economic integration is acceptable, English might beat Cantonese, but then it also beats putonghua) - whilst the pro-Beijing camps have found that backing Cantonese is not sufficient; they must back putonghua.

The problem, of course, is that whilst all this goes on, in 2020 the rest of China began abruptly abolishing Korean, Mongolian, Tibetan, etc. medium schools with its characteristic degree of care and grace (riot police on street corners, etc). The countdown is on; Beijing may not have the patience to sit by and watch it sort itself out.

Most chaotic outcome is presumably one where Hong Kong, under a veil of suspicion, mandates putonghua but then Guangdong does the thing that newly-minted middle classes everywhere do and demands more protection for their mother tongue.

ronya fucked around with this message at 18:52 on Jul 25, 2022

# ? Jul 25, 2022 18:40

Daduzi: Nov 22, 2005; You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun.

E: nevermind

# ? Jul 25, 2022 19:05

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Is Nancy Pelosi really going to Taiwan? I�ve been craving niu rou mian for a while, so I�m really jealous.

# ? Jul 27, 2022 03:51

url: Apr 23, 2007; internet gnuru

Eric Cantonese posted:

Is Nancy Pelosi really going to Taiwan? I�ve been craving niu rou mian for a while, so I�m really jealous.

I'm not sure Pelosi can not go. The risk of being seen to allow a foreign power to dictate your movements is too high.

# ? Jul 27, 2022 12:49

SlothfulCobra: Mar 27, 2011

It's a weird thing. I don't think I've ever heard of the Speaker of the House making major diplomatic missions.

Not much China can do about it.

# ? Jul 27, 2022 15:15

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 21:51

eSports Chaebol: Feb 22, 2005; Yeah, actually, gamers in the house forever,

SlothfulCobra posted:

It's a weird thing. I don't think I've ever heard of the Speaker of the House making major diplomatic missions.

Not much China can do about it.

Newt Gingrich did it in 1997 lol

# ? Jul 27, 2022 16:16

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > China Megathread - Their navy can be taken seriously or taken littorally

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