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Charliegrs posted:Is there some reason why Russia isn't hitting Ukrainian airbases with cruise missiles night and day? Like it's no secret where they are. Is it because maybe they are defended with the best AA missiles Ukraine has and cruise missiles are expensive so Russia saves them for more important targets like apartment buildings? It's because the planes are using improvised runways (read: highways) and aren't landing at the same places they're taking off. You can crater an airstrip in the morning and have planes taking off by afternoon. Hitting air bases is all about hitting planes, fuel, and ammo. Those three things are dispersed all over the country, and mostly out of range of all but the longest range ordinance.
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Jul 29, 2022 03:06
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Ynglaur posted:We laugh, but feet injuries are one of the fastest things to make someone unable to fight. If that 2013 comment wasn't tongue in cheek I'm shocked. It isn't, they used foot wraps until then. https://ria.ru/20130114/918088021.html Charliegrs posted:Is there some reason why Russia isn't hitting Ukrainian airbases with cruise missiles night and day? Like it's no secret where they are. Is it because maybe they are defended with the best AA missiles Ukraine has and cruise missiles are expensive so Russia saves them for more important targets like apartment buildings? I think we just don't have that information due to OPSEC reasons.
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Jul 29, 2022 03:09
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"Putin's gonna mobilize!!!" Come on. What do you think ATACMS does to troop trains?
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Jul 29, 2022 03:18
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Jul 29, 2022 03:19
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If Putin was too scared to mobilize when Ukrainian helicopters flew right into Russia and blew stuff up, he's probably not going to get much more outrage over a base in Ukraine being blown up.
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Jul 29, 2022 03:44
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Kchama posted:If Putin was too scared to mobilize when Ukrainian helicopters flew right into Russia and blew stuff up, he's probably not going to get much more outrage over a base in Ukraine being blown up. Crimea being bombed is different. There is no way he can survive if the Kerch bridge gets blown up, that would be like 9/11 for them, they have it on loving coins!
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Jul 29, 2022 03:58
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From what I understand mobilization would only get Russia a bunch of poorly trained and equipped troops to add to the meat grinder. Short of clancyish stuff is there any other ways Russia can escalate this war? Like could they maybe start moving air assets from places like Syria and far away bases in Russia and move them near Ukraine to use there? I know Russia has a lot of borders to defend but do they really think China or Japan are going to do anything to them in the short term?
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Jul 29, 2022 04:14
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FishBulbia posted:Crimea being bombed is different. There is no way he can survive if the Kerch bridge gets blown up, that would be like 9/11 for them, they have it on loving coins! Russian media already treats everything as a hyper-9/11, so it's hard to see how they can gin it up further.
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Jul 29, 2022 04:15
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Charliegrs posted:Short of clancyish stuff is there any other ways Russia can escalate this war? Use their remaining long range missiles to hit all the power plants and water treatment facilities to make Ukraine unlivable. Seems Ukraine has a lot of air defenses now so its hard to say whether Russia could just do that or not.
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Jul 29, 2022 04:23
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Charliegrs posted:Short of clancyish stuff is there any other ways Russia can escalate this war? Aggressively target anything dual-purpose. Repeatedly target power, water, telecom, transpo hubs. They've expended a lot of ordnance on more tactical targets, but that would be a way to make the war hurt a lot more without doing a big mobilization. Basically, do the stuff you usually expect to see a major power do when invading an industrialized nation. E: ha, should've refreshed, basically beaten one post up
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Jul 29, 2022 04:44
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Really it's good to note that the "theorycrafting" about the ATACMS is very viable. Blowing the Crimean bridge and liberating kherson basically end the war for Russia as it literally declines them their currently achieved stated goal of securing Crimean water.
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Jul 29, 2022 05:51
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There's some interesting interview with an American fighter (ex-Marine, knows Javelins), it's long and cut into 3 parts but the dude obviously wasn't a James Vasquez and actually fought on the front lines https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOqk-OlNBw0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAkCieBQM8o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wqv-62jtzdg -fought in Moshchun (near Gostomel) and Irpin, later in Kherson/Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia front -arrived in Kyiv and 2 hours later to the front with a dogshit FN FNC rifle, not much ammo, lack of comms/radio. Went on a patrol in Moshchun for couple of hours, actually stayed 4 days there -some general chaos and weird stuff there: getting shot by some wild Ukrainian tank from behind and everybody laughing it off while himself being scared shitless weird gentleman's agreements like both sides don't fight at night because nobody both sides have night vision gear (March, early days) bought sides had clear visual and knowledge where they were but nobody shot. Had a clear shot at Russians but commander advised not to do it because they will start mortars and artillery. Convinced the commander to do it and then the obvious happened (March, early days) being under BTR autocannon fire truly sucks (Irpin) Javelins half the time didn't work, sometimes did and successful hits, taking a 50/50 shot but missile got stuck in power lines, trained Ukrainians how to use them woken up at night thinking getting shelled but actually some dude shooting M79 LAWs indoors why the Kherson/Mykolaiv area sucks; small villages with poor cover, huge steppe/flat open areas, huge grey zone/no man's land, Orlans 24/7 up in the air, move only at night with lights off eating marinated/pickled stuff at frontline buildings because slavs like to stack that poo poo fighting in the South in some village and suddenly pigs, cats, dogs and chickens appear and surround him. Only person in the village some Ukrainian farmer dude who is ecstatic to see them there. getting dizziness and headaches (concussion, shell shock) and leaving Ukraine Charlotte Hornets fucked around with this message at 06:12 on Jul 29, 2022 |
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Jul 29, 2022 05:52
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DTurtle posted:Seriously? What is wrong with you? The only thing you care about is inflicting pain on Germany? As a Finnish tax payer, I am not interested in letting rich Germans burn cheap Russian gas on my expense. Is this surprising to you? Of course the ultimate blame rests in corporate leadership who are raking in millions as a reward and on politicians who didn't supervise them and stop them from risky foreign investments. But in the end it is Germany's legislation limiting Uniper from raising prices according to changed market situation that caused this, and only changing that could stop the money drain.
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Jul 29, 2022 09:32
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https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1552948566645170176?t=MtnnMDBn_VYfCKMItR_Qlg&s=19 With how good Ukrainian intel is, I find it hard to believe that it was an accidental - of course, there needs to be proof that it was a strike by Ukranian forces in the first place. Using non-deniable weapons to do that thing (russian smoothbrains and their foreign moron friends insist it was to get rid of POWs that talked too much) seems way too stupid. If it is Russians, then this and the yesterdays castration video are signs of a new horrible tendency in messaging during this war.
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Jul 29, 2022 10:37
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Finland and Sweden's NATO accession progress report: 20 out of 30 NATO countries have already ratified. These 10 countries remain: Czech Republic France Greece Hungary Italy Portugal Slovakia Spain Türkiye United States https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finland-sweden-accession
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Jul 29, 2022 10:55
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Zat posted:Finland and Sweden's NATO accession progress report: USA is supposed to ratify as soon as they have given enough wedgies to Rand Paul.
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Jul 29, 2022 10:57
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It has been really rough recently to follow, with the dismemberment/beheading/castration and continued civilian bombings (Mykolaiv today is bad) Is this what Russia means at escalation? How is this possibly sustainable? edit: also no, the Ukrainians didn’t kill dozens of their POWs with a HIMARS, dude. It’s literally a Russian MoD telegram post. JFC edit2: perhaps that comes off as a bit harsh if you’re not familiar but the Russian MoD posts ridiculous poo poo on telegram, pretty much just for true Rashists Victis fucked around with this message at 11:07 on Jul 29, 2022 |
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Jul 29, 2022 10:57
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Victis posted:It has been really rough recently to follow, with the dismemberment/beheading/castration and continued civilian bombings (Mykolaiv today is bad) I'd take a wild guess that the amped severity, in strikes and their public demonstration is to dare Ukranians to escalate in kind, so the Russian forces in Kherson would fight to the end out of fear of retribution. Chechen War playbook.
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Jul 29, 2022 11:03
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At work yesterday the lobby tv was on the local news and they kept replaying as much of the castration vid as they could.
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Jul 29, 2022 11:06
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Kavros posted:At work yesterday the lobby tv was on the local news and they kept replaying as much of the castration vid as they could. Holy crap. What place's local news is this??
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Jul 29, 2022 11:32
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Nenonen posted:As a Finnish tax payer, I am not interested in letting rich Germans burn cheap Russian gas on my expense. Is this surprising to you? Of course the ultimate blame rests in corporate leadership who are raking in millions as a reward and on politicians who didn't supervise them and stop them from risky foreign investments. But in the end it is Germany's legislation limiting Uniper from raising prices according to changed market situation that caused this, and only changing that could stop the money drain. The issue for Uniper was that they had long-term contracts for delivery of natural gas that they wanted to fill by buying from Russia. That obviously didn't work out for them and under normal circumstances Uniper would just have filled for bankrupcty and the Finnish owners of the company would have had to take the loss. "pacta sund servanda" so they can't just rip up their contracts and demand more from their customers. Because natural gas and Uniper are seen as systemic relevant though, German law allows the adminitration to grant Uniper the special permission to increase prices in spite of existing contracts or the implementation of a general contribution by all natural gas consumers to compensate for the increased price, which is what will be done as it is seen as the more socially just proposition.
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Jul 29, 2022 11:41
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aphid_licker posted:Holy crap. What place's local news is this?? Was just standard unremarkable news. They always cut it before anything obscene but they aren't shying away from describing what the russians are doing
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Jul 29, 2022 11:44
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fatherboxx posted:I'd take a wild guess that the amped severity, in strikes and their public demonstration is to dare Ukranians to escalate in kind, so the Russian forces in Kherson would fight to the end out of fear of retribution. Chechen War playbook. There probably isn't even a top down directive to do it, to be honest. This kind of escalating brutality is just how wars progress. It started out at a higher level due to the nature of the Russian army, so it's reach this level faster.
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Jul 29, 2022 12:06
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FishBulbia posted:Crimea being bombed is different. There is no way he can survive if the Kerch bridge gets blown up, that would be like 9/11 for them, they have it on loving coins! Oh shut up. Tear the loving thing down.
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Jul 29, 2022 12:10
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Charliegrs posted:From what I understand mobilization would only get Russia a bunch of poorly trained and equipped troops to add to the meat grinder. Short of clancyish stuff is there any other ways Russia can escalate this war? Like could they maybe start moving air assets from places like Syria and far away bases in Russia and move them near Ukraine to use there? I know Russia has a lot of borders to defend but do they really think China or Japan are going to do anything to them in the short term? They already moved forces from Syria, Wagners from Libya and Mali and even units from the Kurils.
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Jul 29, 2022 12:17
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There is a ton of public sentiment among Rashists that the government needs to be tougher. Declare war, stop "playing around" with the ukrops or hohols or whatever lovely term they want to use. It's fine if you consider that anecdotal, or if you want to debate what % of the average citizenry is pro-Putin, but it is strong and highly visible. Girkin takes this stance. I guess my question is, under what circumstances are those people forced into a reality check? Even if they don't care for Ukrainians on a political or human level, is there a scenario that spells out "this can be only bad for your country"? That supporting this is self-destructive, and you are sending a generation to die (yes, hyperbolic in the name of prose)?
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Jul 29, 2022 12:19
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Nenonen posted:As a Finnish tax payer, I am not interested in letting rich Germans burn cheap Russian gas on my expense. Is this surprising to you? Of course the ultimate blame rests in corporate leadership who are raking in millions as a reward and on politicians who didn't supervise them and stop them from risky foreign investments. But in the end it is Germany's legislation limiting Uniper from raising prices according to changed market situation that caused this, and only changing that could stop the money drain.
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Jul 29, 2022 12:25
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Willo567 posted:Didn't Sullivan just state a few days ago that they weren't going to send ATACMS Yes https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-not-prepared-to-provide-ukraine-with-atacms Also, I've posted about it before but the thing Ukraine keeps asking for in terms of artillery is *numbers* to support an effective counter-offensive. Increasing the range still further seems like a much lower priority. https://www.defensedaily.com/ukraine-needs-at-least-100-himars-or-mlrs-for-effective-counter-offensive-defense-minister-says/international/
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Jul 29, 2022 12:38
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PerilPastry posted:Yes It's kind of a moot point; if Ukraine really isn't asking for them, then the US won't send them. The only thing that's changed is the language that US spokespeople are using now. Victis fucked around with this message at 13:00 on Jul 29, 2022 |
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Jul 29, 2022 12:57
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ukraine was asking for atacms within like a day or two of getting himars, the messaging was 'look what we've done with himars, now imagine us with atacms,' which is a compelling case
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Jul 29, 2022 13:02
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Herstory Begins Now posted:ukraine was asking for atacms within like a day or two of getting himars, the messaging was 'look what we've done with himars, now imagine us with atacms,' which is a compelling case Yeah, I think everyone agrees that not capitalizing on the Ukrainian successes with HIMARS would be foolish. Current White House and Pentagon thinking just seems to be that adding ATACMS into the mix has a lot of escalatory potential and not a whole lot of advantages that can't be equally well achieved simply with more GMLRS rockets and more HIMARS platforms. PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 13:18 on Jul 29, 2022 |
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Jul 29, 2022 13:14
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PerilPastry posted:Current White House and Pentagon thinking seems to be that it has adding ATACMS into the mix has a lot of escalatory potential but not a whole lot of advantages that can't be equally well achieved with more GMLRS rockets and more HIMARS. That is what the conversation is swirling around; some congresspeople came out of a meeting w/defense and Biden officials and said, "give them ATACMS". And as you pointed out, this is just days after Sullivan's statement. Right now that's all it is, some language about bipartisan support for ATACMS specifically. You have to imagine pros/cons, maybe use cases were discussed? Something that would warrant a namedrop. Maybe it's just for public perception because ATACMS sounds cool Victis fucked around with this message at 13:26 on Jul 29, 2022 |
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Jul 29, 2022 13:17
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I don't know what's going on behind the scenes, obviously, but I can't imagine Ukraine ever saying "nah we don't want to blow up russians farther distance away". Maybe if it had to be one or the other, but why would it be.
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Jul 29, 2022 13:21
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PerilPastry posted:Yeah, I think everyone agrees that not capitalizing on the Ukrainian successes with HIMARS would be foolish. Current White House and Pentagon thinking just seems to be that adding ATACMS into the mix has a lot of escalatory potential and not a whole lot of advantages that can't be equally well achieved simply with more GMLRS rockets and more HIMARS platforms. I wouldn't overly read into statements that they aren't currently planning on giving them xyz. All the incentive is to say 'no plans yet to provide xyz' whether they intend to provide it or not and most stuff is only being announced after it has already been delivered and used. Maybe they won't be provided, but we will only know that if Ukraine isn't using them, statements to that effect are basically useless. notably some prominent russians are convinced that Ukraine will get atacms sooner than later and idk why they wouldn't give them. so far there's been nearly zero concern for escalatory potential wrt what has been provided.
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Jul 29, 2022 13:28
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mobby_6kl posted:I don't know what's going on behind the scenes, obviously, but I can't imagine Ukraine ever saying "nah we don't want to blow up russians farther distance away". I recall when people were discussing sending Patriot systems to Ukraine that people said, "We're allowed to send X amount of dollars worth of aid. We could send them just one Patriot system, or we could send them all these other things that are higher priority, so we didn't send Patriot" Matters may have changed since then, though.
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Jul 29, 2022 13:28
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cinci zoo sniper posted:He can certainly has been able to just go for it at any point. All I’m saying is that an attack on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters would be a much easier explainable trigger than an artillery shell hitting an outhouse of 5735th railway troops platoon of the Southern Military District. Regardless of that, I’m fairly sure that Ukrainians have a long list of much more practical targets to hit. I really don’t think Ukraine can approach this war by fighting it in a way that is designed to not piss off Putin too much. They have to fight it to win, and if that means attacking the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet then so be it.
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Jul 29, 2022 13:29
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Nenonen posted:As a Finnish tax payer, I am not interested in letting rich Germans burn cheap Russian gas on my expense. Is this surprising to you? Of course the ultimate blame rests in corporate leadership who are raking in millions as a reward and on politicians who didn't supervise them and stop them from risky foreign investments. But in the end it is Germany's legislation limiting Uniper from raising prices according to changed market situation that caused this, and only changing that could stop the money drain. Reading up on the whole thing it sure sounds like you are mad that the Finnish state made a horrible purchase. Could you lay out how it is the fault of the German state that the Finnish state, seemingly without a good exit plan, bought a "too big to fail" gas company wholly reliant on Russian benevolence? Finland should have known better than to invest in Russian fossil fuels and now Germany is literally bailing out the Finnish tax payer by buying a 30% stake in the company because they too realize that it is too big to fail? Please poo poo on German reliance on Russian gas all you want but this seems to be a pretty clear cut case of bad investment and the investors (in this case a ultimately a country instead of a hedge fund) gets to bare the brunt of the bad investment because regulations and unions prevent a settlement on the investors terms.
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Jul 29, 2022 13:38
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Gort posted:I recall when people were discussing sending Patriot systems to Ukraine that people said, "We're allowed to send X amount of dollars worth of aid. We could send them just one Patriot system, or we could send them all these other things that are higher priority, so we didn't send Patriot" Patriot batteries are manned by US troops for most of the batteries in Europe and in all non-NATO countries? Something like that. The Swedes actually got training on theirs. Victis fucked around with this message at 13:44 on Jul 29, 2022 |
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Jul 29, 2022 13:40
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There would be value in just having the extra range capability even if it it only used enough to demonstrate that they have it. As mentioned earlier in the thread it would force Russia to make drastic changes to all their positions and resources to account for the fact that they could be hit.
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