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SlothfulCobra posted:It's a weird thing. I don't think I've ever heard of the Speaker of the House making major diplomatic missions. What plausibly are they going to do? The MFA have been using the same stern tone they use for anything concerning Taiwan so it's hard to judge. How plausible are actions like using military jets to turn the plane around?
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Jul 27, 2022 18:32
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Not So Fast posted:What plausibly are they going to do? The MFA have been using the same stern tone they use for anything concerning Taiwan so it's hard to judge. It's remote but possible: the concern here is that China is thirsting for a cause célèbre to distract from the domestic situation of zero covid and the recession and there could be miscalculation. Denying Pelosi landing rights is not a thing, as Taiwan administers its own air space. It would be flying military jets into Taiwan air space (which the Chinese PLA do often as a provocation) and threatening to shoot her plane down if she doesn't turn back. EDIT: here is an excellent thread on analyzing Chinese rhetoric: https://twitter.com/wentisung/status/1552164325506580482 i fly airplanes fucked around with this message at 05:31 on Jul 28, 2022 |
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Jul 28, 2022 03:07
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It's another great example of the Wolf Warriors' attitude shooting themselves in the foot. Oddly, the last time I saw wolf warrior mentioned was the Chinese ambassador to the EU apologising for it having gone too far. It seems the internal communication isn't working, or alternatively the ambassador to the EU was just stroking everyone off in the hope that they are so isolated they wouldn't see how transparent his lies were. Given their bellicosity over this issue, and the price for America being far too high, it almost assures that Pelosi has to make the trip. Same as FONOP (I hate that term - Right of innocent passage is the proper term). The other great examples of the bellicose attitude delivering the exact opposite of what was intended is the end result of bullying Australia where they now don't need/want China's coal trade. Europe not taking a call from XJP is just hilarious. I'm hoping Pelosi has the courage to make the flight. And, I'm hoping she uses Air force One with its well armed escort. Since the threats have now been made, I'm hoping the US shows some metal here.
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Jul 28, 2022 05:42
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https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1552073843325521923?t=_W4s6O0PprqIHDmqq0QTNA&s=19 Biden's admin themselves seem extremely not thrilled about her pulling this move
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Jul 28, 2022 10:42
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I understand the hesitant attitude.But I feel like Pelosi has the right game plan in mind. It's better to deal with this problem sooner than later. I'm being glib, but, the outpouring of ugly nationalism following the last time she cancelled the trip really feels like justification enough for her to go ahead with it. More seriously though, I think China recently (last month) claimed everything inside the first island chain as 'internal Waters'. It honestly beggars belief how high the leadership must be to conclude that the international order will simply let it slide.
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Jul 28, 2022 11:33
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A big flaming stink posted:https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1552073843325521923?t=_W4s6O0PprqIHDmqq0QTNA&s=19 Let's quote the article itself. quote:National security officials are quietly working to convince House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the risks her potential trip to Taiwan could pose during a highly sensitive moment between the self-governing island and China. It sounds to me like they're less upset with what would otherwise be a very normal visit and they're more concerned about the CCP throwing an even bigger fit, because they're becoming increasingly bellicose and erratic regarding Taiwan in the lead up to the upcoming CCP Congress later this year.
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Jul 28, 2022 16:01
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How is the speaker of the house going to Taiwan a very normal visit lol. It was a major controversy when Republican speaker Newt Gingrich did it in the 90s and he is the only other one to do it.
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Jul 29, 2022 20:49
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https://twitter.com/Kevinliptakcnn/status/1553096606513258496
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Jul 29, 2022 21:03
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Realnewsnobullshit on instagram just posted a screenshot of (ostensibly) the Chinese military's Weibo account, with the message: "Prepare for war." 
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Jul 29, 2022 21:25
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One fun fact about China is that they probably don’t have a second strike capacity after a full U.S. missile attack. I don’t think they’ll start a war with the United States over one official visit to Taiwan.
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Jul 30, 2022 07:28
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I hope they shoot her down. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 30, 2022 07:38
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Ogmius815 posted:One fun fact about China is that they probably don’t have a second strike capacity after a full U.S. missile attack. I don’t think they’ll start a war with the United States over one official visit to Taiwan. I personally don't think theres anything fun about this fact, false advertising. Hell, I'm not even sure it's a fact!
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Jul 30, 2022 08:09
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Ogmius815 posted:One fun fact about China is that they probably don’t have a second strike capacity after a full U.S. missile attack. I don’t think they’ll start a war with the United States over one official visit to Taiwan. lol (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 30, 2022 09:38
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Ogmius815 posted:One fun fact about China is that they probably don’t have a second strike capacity after a full U.S. missile attack. They probably do, but that is not really fun, one way or the other. Ogmius815 posted:I don’t think they’ll start a war with the United States over one official visit to Taiwan. Such an official visit would certainly help in keeping the peace in the region!
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Jul 30, 2022 10:13
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Dante80 posted:Such an official visit would certainly help in keeping the peace in the region! Framing the US as the aggressor here is a bit of a farce, given what China has done for the past two decades with the Spratly and Paracel Islands, and the 9-dash line. https://twitter.com/jingjing_li/status/1553205401318858752 i fly airplanes fucked around with this message at 10:40 on Jul 30, 2022 |
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Jul 30, 2022 10:34
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what I don't get: why not do a Gingrich and offer to visit Beijing just before visiting Taipei not like Beijing is going to turn down the House speaker
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Jul 30, 2022 11:40
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i fly airplanes posted:Framing the US as the aggressor here is a bit of a farce, given what China has done for the past two decades with the Spratly and Paracel Islands, and the 9-dash line. It takes two to tango, sending US warships near the Taiwan strait is hardly a peaceful move either. It should be obvious that that a move like a high-ranking US official visiting a rebel province would set off the Chinese government - imagine the response in reverse, if Liu Keqiang visited Puerto Rico to meet with a rebel government. (I'm not endorsing either side escalating things either way, to be clear).
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Jul 30, 2022 12:24
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Calling Taiwan a "rebel government" is pretty ridiculous. If anything, the government of mainland China is a "rebel government". This is just China flexing its imperialist muscle.
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Jul 30, 2022 12:52
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I mean, technically the USA is itself a rebel government too.
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Jul 30, 2022 12:54
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1) I don't understand why 二舅 is a media phenomenon at this moment. Safe topics in a nervous moment, perhaps? (there are plenty of comments unsubtly taking advantage of the feelgood coverage to highlight the lack of govt support for the disabled). 2) So much so obvious in this article: https://twitter.com/ForeignPolicy/status/1552843882202890240 but it lightbulbed something for me: quote:It is becoming increasingly costly for China to finance its economic growth through expanding government expenditure and firm investment because of rising funding costs in the banking sector and the lack of interest in unattractive local government special bonds among retail investors. Chinese savers’ hard-earned savings are not just deposits but also a source of leverage. All financial crises start locally. What is Beijing’s next move in the multifront war against financial insecurity? It is likely to crack down on more alternative investment instruments, such as online cross-border securities brokerage platforms, to address financial insecurity and channel savings to purchase local government bonds. Financial repression is par for the course for the Asian developmental model, but is local government supposed to succeed in this endeavour? Doesn't seem obvious to me ronya fucked around with this message at 13:25 on Jul 30, 2022 |
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Jul 30, 2022 13:19
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Ogmius815 posted:One fun fact about China is that they probably don’t have a second strike capacity after a full U.S. missile attack. Some evidence, source, or reasoning for claims like this would be helpful.
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Jul 30, 2022 13:56
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Criss-cross posted:Calling Taiwan a "rebel government" is pretty ridiculous. If anything, the government of mainland China is a "rebel government". Liberals love cutting apart non-western nations. A bunch of nationalists retreat to an island and suddenly its holy ground. Maybe our enlightened rules-based international order can do some anti-imperialism and force china to lease certain areas and cities under freedom governments. Just think about the free trade possibilities once they're liberated from the seeseepee unwantedplatypus fucked around with this message at 14:18 on Jul 30, 2022 |
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Jul 30, 2022 14:15
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unwantedplatypus posted:Liberals love cutting apart non-western nations. A bunch of nationalists retreat to an island and suddenly its holy ground. Maybe our enlightened rules-based international order can do some anti-imperialism and force china to lease certain areas and cities under freedom governments. Just think about the free trade possibilities once they're liberated from the seeseepee Well, the most important part is that this happened 70 years ago and most people who knew the country when it was united are dead. Also it has never once been united under the current mainland government. Because, uh, they failed to win Taiwan.
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Jul 30, 2022 14:39
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Clarste posted:Well, the most important part is that this happened 70 years ago and most people who knew the country when it was united are dead. Why did they fail to win Taiwan? They have a massive advantage of materials and manpower. Did something get in the way?
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Jul 30, 2022 14:47
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unwantedplatypus posted:Why did they fail to win Taiwan? They have a massive advantage of materials and manpower. Did something get in the way? Why bother asking questions if you already know the answer? Just make the argument or point you'd like to straightforwardly. Your posts above are zero-content sarcasm and snark so far.
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Jul 30, 2022 14:58
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At its birth, Taiwan was run by a nationalist dictatorship propped by the US to act as a forward military base of operations against China. The fundamental nature of Taiwan's geopolitical purpose has not changed even as it has liberalized over time. In addition, China is operating within a national context of recovering its economy and territory after the century of humiliation. Therefore saying China is doing imperialism by preventing the US from treating Taiwan like a sovereign country rather than one side of a civil war is ridiculous. Any more than it was "imperialism" to take control of HK after the contract with UK expired.
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Jul 30, 2022 15:14
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The liberal world does it domestically also, of course: hence the fascination with preserving dying languages and minority cultures, in an abrupt reversal from nationbuilding policies pursued not terribly long ago The difference is that the liberal world is 1) extremely rich and can afford to massively subsidize such regions and territories (by transferring from their rich metropolitan cores) as a kind of political weregild, and by the same token afford not to develop their domestic surviving cultural-minority outposts, and 2) had largely extirpated said outposts anyway! It's a lot easier to maintain France as a going concern despite Bretonisms, Occitanisms, etc. because the French nationbuilding project has already largely homogenized most of its domestic variation, leaving only a few safe token survivors. I've remarked before ITT that I've come across not-even-all-that-frothingly-nationalist Chinese pundits that have observed as much, principally as a justification for the consolidation of putonghua country-wide, &c. It's conceded that it's good to preserve minority dialects and culture, but not at the expense of Chinese national greatness &c. That said, it seems inevitable that the Chinese rising middle classes - like those everywhere else - will come to assert the importance of heritage and preservation over time (especially their own heritages). Never mind Taiwan, or even Hong Kong; I'd expect that Shanghai and Guangdong will develop regionalistic identities within a generation also. China's growth trajectory doesn't imply the formation of a fourth metropolitan cluster (so the status quo of Beijing/Shanghai/Guangdong is pretty much it), and the economic reliance on vast numbers of domestic migrant workers travelling vast distances from their hometown/village/村 was never going to last forever anyway; people are going to settle down and develop rooted identities. ronya fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Jul 30, 2022 |
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Jul 30, 2022 15:27
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Clarste posted:Well, the most important part is that this happened 70 years ago and most people who knew the country when it was united are dead. Batista got the boot 60 years ago and the US is still being weird about it even though it's really none of their business. Now imagine if it had been an actual US state that was only independent because of Soviet or Chinese support. Yeah things do not just stop mattering because time goes by. Humans don't work like that and nation states with security interests do not work like that.
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Jul 30, 2022 15:33
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The CCP would be highly aggrieved at any suggestion that it is less nationalist than the KMT This is not the Spanish civil war, you can't just small-n your nationalist labels ronya fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Jul 30, 2022 |
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Jul 30, 2022 15:52
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The PRC is pretty explicit about their imperialist ambitions and their disregard and contempt for the popular opinion of the people who they decree to be under their dominion. ronya posted:The liberal world does it domestically also, of course: hence the fascination with preserving dying languages and minority cultures, in an abrupt reversal from nationbuilding policies pursued not terribly long ago I don't think that's really true at large, it's just nowadays the voices of people in favor of preserving minority cultures are more heard, and those frequently rise to the top of the discord because of their clear moral high ground in arguing that they should be allowed to still exist. That doesn't always translate into broad support at the expense of the convenience of the dominant groups, it just means that the dominant groups need to more actively choose to be assholes while oppressing them.
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Jul 30, 2022 16:14
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SlothfulCobra posted:The PRC is pretty explicit about their imperialist ambitions and their disregard and contempt for the popular opinion of the people who they decree to be under their dominion. Could you quote an example of them being explicit about it?
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Jul 30, 2022 16:28
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unwantedplatypus posted:Could you quote an example of them being explicit about it? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dash_line Pretty explicit.
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Jul 30, 2022 16:38
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哪里有项目，哪里就有党支部: where-ever there is an undertaking, there is the Party 一带一路，党旗飘扬: all along the One Belt One Road, the Party's flag waves
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Jul 30, 2022 16:47
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Rust Martialis posted:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dash_line Even if I were to concede that this constitutes imperialism; and I don't think it does. This is an order of magnitude less severe than the Taiwan situation from the US perspective. China is not looking to economically subjugate the population of Taiwan. It's not going to relocate their industry, turn them into permanent debtors, etc. You're comparing China wanting reunification of historically connected population and wanting greater control over their region's trade to the US using Taiwan to weaken china and exert control over a region half a world away. You are decrying the former as imperialism. Also your link says nothing about them ignoring the popular opinion of the people. edit: I guess you weren't directly comparing the two, just saying that the PRC has imperialist ambitions. My answer to that is, maybe, I don't want to quibble with definitions; but its incomparable to what the term imperialism usually describes. Which is the economic and/or political subjugation of another nation to enrich the imperial core. unwantedplatypus fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Jul 30, 2022 |
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Jul 30, 2022 17:03
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When we talk about the 'wolf warrior' outlook in contemporary Chinese imperialism, it is quite openly premised on article 50 commitments to protect Chinese nationals overseas, in particular as sold to the Chinese public Of course, who constitutes a Chinese national is a bit of a sticking point. The Chinese diaspora is large. (China is of course selective about this protection in practice; its failure to sufficiently protest anti-Chinese pogroms in Jakarta back in 1998 was a particular aggravation domestically. More recently its failure to protect Chinese nationals in Ukraine is another embarrassment. But e.g., recent moves to develop security partnerships in Oceania are in a context where Chinese businesses and neighbourhoods are burned down in riots, which local police and their Aus/NZ security partners have failed to prevent. If you're that invested in imperialism as defined as asserting control half a world away) There is also a domestic counterpart in the 中国梦 Chinese Dream of domestic national rejuvenation and melting pot/cultural assimilation into a single Chinese people 中华民族交融, which is also another kind of cultural hegemony, but that depends on your own pet notions of legitimate primordial ethnonationalism, I guess
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Jul 30, 2022 17:26
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Edit: re-read it, Protecting nationals abroad, while it can be used as a tool of imperialism, is not in itself imperialism. What are they doing with these agreements? That’s the important question. unwantedplatypus fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Jul 30, 2022 |
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Jul 30, 2022 18:02
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Not So Fast posted:It takes two to tango, sending US warships near the Taiwan strait is hardly a peaceful move either. It should be obvious that that a move like a high-ranking US official visiting a rebel province would set off the Chinese government - imagine the response in reverse, if Liu Keqiang visited Puerto Rico to meet with a rebel government. Imagine if the US was doing live fire exercises in the direction of PR or some other fantastical thing - but none of that is happening. China has been making threats against Taiwan longer than any of us have been alive. What rebel province does the US have? Let Li come to Florida?
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Jul 30, 2022 18:03
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TheBuilder posted:Imagine if the US was doing live fire exercises in the direction of PR or some other fantastical thing - but none of that is happening. China has been making threats against Taiwan longer than any of us have been alive. What rebel province does the US have? Let Li come to Florida? US’s rebel province is Cuba
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Jul 30, 2022 18:06
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China does absolutely have a second strike capability; either in the form of road mobile TELs launching DF-41's or SLBM's such as the JL-2 from its Jin-class and Xia-class submarines (6 Type 094's and 1 Type 092). China's expansion of its silo based missile launchers is also an effort to increase the robustness of its ability to maintain a credible deterrence.
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Jul 30, 2022 18:23
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unwantedplatypus posted:Edit: re-read it, e.g. from Wang Yi's recent tour: 帮助所方加强警察能力建设， 弥补安全治理赤字， 维护所国内稳定与长治久安 - strengthen the capacity and capability of the police, - remedy existing deficits in peace enforcement - maintain the Solomon Island's social harmony and long-term peace For context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Solomon_Islands_unrest Worth emphasizing that these security goals are not really that different from security provision agreements Australia or New Zealand may sign - although of course China has specific interests in protecting Chinese investments in Oceania. To quote: quote:China may, according to its own needs and with the consent of the Solomon Islands, make ship visits to, carry out logistical replenishment in, and have stopover and transition in Solomon Islands, and the relevant forces of China can be used to protect the safety of Chinese personnel and major projects in the Solomon Islands. Hence: quote:The most pressing risk is not Chinese warships or nuclear missiles stationed in Honiara, but repression to handle urban unrest without the restraint required of Australian, Papua New Guinean, Fijian or New Zealand police officers. China itself is of course intimately familiar with the problems of foreign forces on a mission to defend foreign personnel and investments! The foray arguably hasn't gone down terribly well since; although the Solomons pact was signed, the Common Development Vision subsequently went down like a lead balloon, including in the Solomons itself Michael Pettis observed recently (and I am inclined to agree) that China, being relatively new to being a major economic power, is getting to experience for itself the various mistakes past powers have made: https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1376751289955188740 https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1517418226132873216 and one part of that, I think, is yielding to a 'khaki election' demand to invest blood and treasure into defending nationals and interests overseas, without any counterbalancing domestic antiwar sentiment from past costly entanglements from having defended nationals and interests overseas
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Jul 30, 2022 19:02
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